Election denial movement in the United States

Conspiracy theory

The election denial movement in the United States is a widespread conservative belief that any United States election not resulting in a desired Republican victory has been rigged and stolen through voter fraud by Democrats. Adherents of the movement are referred to as election deniers. Voter fraud conspiracy theories have spread online and through conservative conferences, community events, and door-to-door canvassing. Since the 2020 United States presidential election, many Republican politicians have sought elective office or taken legislative steps to address what they assert is weak election integrity leading to widespread fraudulent elections, though no evidence of systemic voter fraud has come to light and voter fraud is extremely rare.

The movement came to prominence after Donald Trump was defeated in the 2020 United States presidential election. Trump had a history of questioning elections before he ran for office, notably the 2012 reelection of Barack Obama. He grew the movement among his supporters by making consistently false allegations of fraud during the 2016, and in particular the 2020 presidential election. With these false and unsubstantiated claims, Trump and his associates sought to overturn the 2020 election of Joe Biden; he and others have been indicted on federal and state charges involving election subversion. Trump's false allegations came to be known as his "big lie". Trump has since endorsed only Republican candidates who agree the 2020 election had been stolen from him, and he has not committed to accepting the results of the 2024 presidential election in which he is a candidate.

## Context[edit]

Going back decades, some influential Republicans who have expressed concerns around election security have been accused of using the fear of voter fraud as a pretext for voter suppression.[1][2] A notable quote that has been used as evidence of bad faith efforts to address voter fraud comes from Paul Weyrich, co-founder of the conservative The Heritage Foundation, who said in a speech in 1980, "I don't want everybody to vote ... our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."[2]

### Prevalence of voter fraud[edit]

Election experts have found that election fraud is vanishingly rare, not systemic, and not at levels that could have impacted a presidential election.[3][4][5] In response to Donald Trump's 2016 claims of millions of fraudulent votes, the Brennan Center in 2017 evaluated voter fraud data and arrived at a fraud rate of 0.0003%–0.0025%.[6] That year, the center also analyzed The Heritage Foundation's database of voter fraud as tiny, reaching back to 1948, and one in which the vast majority of cases would still occur under the Foundation's proposed election reforms.[7]

### Origins of the movement[edit]

Professor Andrew Smolar and Dr. Geoffrey Kabaservice believe this election denial movement began with the Tea Party after Obama's election, citing the Birtherism conspiracy theory as helping to dissolve trust in institutions and objective truth.[8][9] Other dates that have been suggested for the start of this movement include 2012,[10] 2016[11] and 2020.[12]

Analyst Chris Sautter argues the movement is the latest stage of wrangling about election rules that began in the 1960s regarding severe restrictions to stop Blacks from voting in most of the South. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 outlawed discrimination and enabled the federal government to block new restrictions. During the Reagan presidency in the 1980s, the Republican National Committee (RNC) launched "ballot security" and "voter integrity" campaigns to reduce what it alleged to be voter fraud. They focused on minority communities with large Democratic majorities. They stationed off-duty police officers in conspicuous locations near polling places; distributed leaflets suggesting voters could be subjected to prosecution; and made unsupported challenges of registered voters. Federal courts concluded the techniques were designed to frighten minority voters in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Republican party officials were forced to sign a consent decree agreeing to stop. However, in 2013, the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act in its ruling on Shelby County v. Holder. This enabled Republican legislatures in at least 20 states to impose new obstacles for the 2018 elections.[13][14]

## Disputed elections[edit]

### President[edit]

#### 2012[edit]

After Barack Obama was declared the winner of the Electoral College while still trailing in the popular vote count early on election night 2012, Trump tweeted the election was a "total sham" because Obama "lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election," adding "the electoral college is a disaster for a democracy" and "We can't let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty."[15] Final election results showed Obama won the popular vote by nearly five million ballots.[16] In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won the electoral college but lost the popular vote by nearly three million ballots.[17]

ABC News writer Terrence Smith described Trump's statements as the first example showing a broader playbook of election denial.[10]

Despite Trump's comments, unsuccessful Republican nominee Mitt Romney accepted the results and conceded defeat.

#### 2016[edit]

During the 2016 Republican primaries, Trump alleged, without evidence, that his opponent Senator Ted Cruz stole the Iowa presidential caucuses after he had won them.[10]

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Trump asserted that the only way he could lose was if there was election fraud.[18] Trump political advisor Roger Stone created a "Stop the Steal" organization in 2016 in the event Trump lost; it was revived after Trump's loss in 2020.[19]

Trump claimed, without evidence, that millions voted illegally for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, costing him the popular vote victory.[20] As a result, Trump established an election integrity commission in May 2017, but the commission was disbanded several months later, with member Matthew Dunlap, the Maine secretary of state, writing to commission chair Mike Pence and vice chair Kris Kobach that, contrary to public statements by Trump and Kobach, the commission did not find "substantial" voter fraud.[21] Dunlap alleged the true purpose of the commission was to create a pretext to pave the way for policy changes designed to undermine the right to vote. Critics said the commission's intent was to disenfranchise or deter legal voters.[22] Kobach, then the Kansas secretary of state, had a history of making false or unsubstantiated allegations of voting fraud to advocate for voting restrictions.[23][24]

#### 2020[edit]

Main article: Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election

Donald Trump complained of widespread voter fraud leading up to and following the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which was widely debunked. Having never conceded, Trump used this allegation of fraud as justification to try multiple times to subvert the election results and remain in office. Trump has demanded those seeking his endorsement to support his unfounded allegations of fraud. Many of those involved in the plots, including the riot on January 6, 2021, have been convicted, charged or are under investigation for crimes such as insurrection.

#### 2024[edit]

As of January 2024, Trump has not committed to accepting the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election if he loses.[25] Trump's niece, Mary L. Trump, and retiring Rep. Anthony Gonzalez (R) among others predict that he would once again deny the results of a loss and try to steal the election.[26][27] According to NPR, the continuation of election denial tactics by Trump for the 2024 election is 'likely.'[28]

Many Republicans, notably Trump, long criticized "ballot harvesting" and the early voting it enables as rife with fraud and cheating, encouraging their voters to vote only at polling places on election day. The 2022 Dinesh D'Souza film 2000 Mules was centered on false allegations of illegal ballot harvesting by unnamed nonprofit organizations supposedly associated with the Democratic Party to commit election fraud. After disappointing Republican results in the 2020 and 2022 elections, some Trump-aligned organizations such as Turning Point USA recognized they needed to adopt similar ballot collection methods for the 2024 elections, which they named "ballot chasing." Turning Point said it would raise money to create "the largest and most impactful ballot chasing operation the movement has ever seen." Kari Lake, who refused to concede her loss in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race, said she would launch "the largest ballot chasing operation in our nation's history."[29][30]

Media Matters reported in March 2024 that Lara Trump, the new co-chair of the Republican National Committee, had said on a recent podcast that "I'm gonna say 75 million-plus Americans who still are like, what the hell happened in 2020? They didn't get any answers." She baselessly claimed that the odds of mail-in ballots giving Biden swing state victories was "one in one quadrillion to the fourth power." She added that the RNC now has "the ability to train poll workers ... who get to handle a ballot" rather than simply observe ballot counting, and that the RNC was seeking attorneys across the country to challenge ballots. Politico had reported in June 2022 that the RNC sought to deploy an "army" of poll workers and attorneys in swing states who could refer what they deemed questionable ballots in Democratic voting precincts to a network of friendly district attorneys to challenge. Trump said the party would begin "legal ballot harvesting" that it had not previously embraced.[31][32][33]

Days after the RNC voted Lara Trump and Michael Whatley to lead the organization, former OANN anchor Christina Bobb was named to head the RNC election integrity program which Lara Trump said occupied "an entire wing of the building." A staunch Trump advocate, Bobb was involved in attempts to overturn the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and promoted the false allegation that the election had been stolen from Trump by fraud.[34][35][36]

In April 2024 the RNC released a robocall script falsely alleging Democrats committed "massive fraud" in the 2020 election. The script added, "If Democrats have their way, your vote could be canceled out by someone who isn't even an American citizen."[37]

### Statewide[edit]

#### 2022[edit]

In addition to making false claims about the previous election a centerpiece of her 2022 Arizona gubernatorial campaign, Kari Lake refused to concede her loss, traveling the country into 2023 to promote her election fraud allegations amid speculation she was considering a run for Senate or being named as Trump's running mate in 2024. Her several lawsuits challenging her loss were thrown out, as has a lawsuit to stop using electronic machines.[38][39] A July 2023 suit filed by Republican Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, alleging Lake defamed him by claiming he had rigged the election against her, was in December 2023 cleared to proceed to trial.[40]

## Prevalence of election denialism[edit]

### Elected officials[edit]

An October 2022 Washington Post analysis found that 51% of Republican nominees for House, Senate and key statewide offices in nearly every state that year denied or questioned the 2020 presidential election outcome.[41] Secretaries of state oversee elections in states. In 2022, nearly one in three Republican candidates for those offices supported overturning the 2020 presidential election results.[42][43] The America First Secretary of State Coalition, co-founded and led by Nevada Republican Jim Marchant, was created in 2021 to promote election deniers for secretary of state in the 2022 United States secretary of state elections.[44] All but one of nearly twenty candidates the group endorsed in 2022 lost in the general election.[45][46] According to analysis by the nonpartisan States United Action, election denialism cost Republican candidates from 2.3 to 3.7 percentage points of votes in the 2022 midterm elections.[47]

Trump made his election fraud claims a litmus test for Republican candidates and the heart of his platform.[48] After Mike Johnson won the October 2023 Speaker of the United States House election, David A. Graham posited that only members of the election denial movement had a chance to win the speakership with only Republican votes.[49]

### Voters[edit]

As of August 2023, a large majority of Republican voters and Republican-leaning independents continued to believe Joe Biden was not legitimately elected in 2020.[50]

## Analysis[edit]

Sarah Longwell, a Republican political strategist who strongly opposes Trumpism, wrote in April 2022 that she asked Trump voters in focus groups why they continue to believe the election was stolen from him. She perceived that for many it was a hard-to-explain tribal response to a message that is echoed throughout the participants' social and media environment.[51]

Analysis of polls by Charles Stewart, a Distinguished Professor of Political Science at MIT, shows that there are deep ideological roots involving belief in conspiracies, racial tensions and religion as well as partisanship. He argues:

> Among Republicans, conspiracism has a potent effect on embracing election denialism, followed by racial resentment. Among independents, the strongest influences on denialism are Christian nationalism and racial resentment. And, although election denialism is rare among Democrats, what variation does exist is mostly explained by levels of racial resentment.[52]

Some election experts and historians contend that, left unabated, election denial could further reduce concessions by losing candidates, disrupt the peaceful transfers of power and weaken or even dismantle American democracy.[53][54] Lisa Bryant, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, warned of the erosion of trust in the democratic process and the institutions it produces, which might lead to a breakdown in the rule of law if the government (and by extension the laws they create) are not viewed as legitimate.[55][56]

## Priorities and supporters of the movement[edit]

Following Trump's 2020 loss amid his false allegations of fraud, Republican lawmakers initiated a sweeping effort to make voting laws more restrictive in several states across the country and to take control of the administrative management of elections at the state and local level.[57][58][59][60] Some planned to deploy an "army" of poll workers and lawyers to challenge votes in Democratic districts.[61][62][63]

### Notable supporters of the election denial movement[edit]

Dennis Montgomery promoted widely debunked 'evidence' for both the birther conspiracy theory movement and the 2020 election denial movement (among other far-right conspiracies), was frequently widely cited by supporters of President Trump's efforts to overturn the election.[64]

By 2022, My Pillow founder Mike Lindell had become a prominent figure in the movement, spending millions of his money for conferences, activist networks, a media platform, legal actions and research. Lindell asserts the 2020 election was stolen through a complex global scheme to hack into voting machines. Through his My Pillow advertising placements, he became a major financial backer of an expanding network of right-wing podcasters and influencers.[65] Lindell's legal firm said in an October 2023 court filing that Lindell was in arrears by millions of dollars in fees and that the firm could no longer afford to represent him, which Lindell confirmed.[66]

Organizations funded by dark money have met quietly with officials in Republican-controlled states to create an incubator of policies that would restrict ballot access and amplify false claims that fraud is rampant in elections. Led by The Heritage Foundation, the groups include the Honest Elections Project, which is among a network of conservative organizations associated with Leonard Leo, a longtime prominent figure in the Federalist Society.[67]

The Conservative Partnership Institute (CPI) was founded in 2017 by former Republican senator and Heritage Foundation president Jim DeMint. CPI employs Mark Meadows and Jeffrey Clark and has been described as the "nerve center" for the MAGA movement. CPI's funding increased from $1.7 million 2017 to $45 million in 2021. CPI includes the Election Integrity Network, led by Cleta Mitchell.[68][69][70][71] Mitchell was a Trump advisor after the 2020 election who participated in the Trump–Raffensperger phone call during which Trump pressured the Georgia secretary of state to "find" ballots that would secure him a victory in the state. Trump and 18 others, including Meadows and Clark, were indicted in the Georgia election racketeering prosecution for allegedly running a "criminal racketeering enterprise." Mitchell was one of 39 individuals a special grand jury recommended for indictment on multiple charges, though prosecutor Fani Willis declined to charge her.[72] By 2022, Mitchell said she was "taking the lessons we learned in 2020" as she held seminars around the country to recruit election deniers to monitor elections because "the only way [Democrats] win is to cheat."[73]

In 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University Law School identified several individuals or groups that together were spending tens of millions to support election deniers in that year's midterm elections. These included the billionaire couple Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein; Trump's Save America PAC; and Home Depot co-founder Bernard Marcus. Former Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne said he spent $20 million to convince people that the 2020 election was stolen; he was also a major funder of the 2021 Maricopa County presidential ballot audit that sought but failed to find election fraud in the 2020 presidential election. Byrne has been the largest funder of The America Project, which pushes election denial narratives. That group was founded by former Trump national security advisor Michael Flynn in 2021, with an agenda that includes undermining trust in elections.[74][75] Byrne, Flynn and others attended a December 2020 Oval Office meeting with Trump to discuss ways to overturn the president's election loss.[76]

Oracle Corporation founder Larry Ellison joined a November 2020 conference call with Sean Hannity and senator Lindsey Graham to discuss ways to challenge the legitimacy of the 2020 election.[77] By October 2022, Ellison was donating millions of dollars to a SuperPAC to support four Senate candidates who had cast doubt on the 2020 election results.[78]

The 2022 Dinesh D'Souza film 2000 Mules film falsely alleges unnamed nonprofit organizations associated with the Democratic Party paid "mules" to illegally collect and deposit ballots into drop boxes in five swing states during the 2020 presidential election.[79][80][81][82]

Some analysts and politicians both Republican and Democrat have suggested that election denial may include an element of grifting to solicit donations from unwitting supporters.[83][84][85][86] With an email campaign, Trump raised about $250 million for what he told donors was an "official election defense fund" that did not actually exist.[87][88] By September 2022, a federal grand jury was investigating whether Trump and his allies were soliciting donations on the basis of claims they knew were false, which might violate federal wire fraud laws.[89][90] The Smith special counsel investigation was also examining the fundraising of former Trump attorney Sidney Powell by September 2023.[91]

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91. ^ Cohen, Zachary; Reid, Paula (September 5, 2023). "CNN Exclusive: Special counsel election probe continues with focus on fundraising, voting equipment breaches". CNN.

## Further reading[edit]

* Albertson, Bethany, and Kimberly Guiler. "Conspiracy theories, election rigging, and support for democratic norms." Research & Politics 7.3 (2020): online
* Craig, Maureen A., and Jennifer A. Richeson. "On the Precipice of a ‘Majority-Minority’ America: Perceived Status Threat From the Racial Demographic Shift Affects White Americans’Political Ideology." Psychological Science (2014) 25(6): 1189–97.
* Graham, Matthew H., and Milan W. Svolik. "Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States." American Political Science Review 2020\. 114(2): 392–409. online
* Sautter, Chris. "US Democracy Survives a Challenge." in Campaigns and Elections American Style: The changing landscape of political campaigns'ed by Candice J. Nelson, James A. Thurber, and David A. Dulio, (6th ed. Routledge, 2023) pp. 33–51. doi 10.4324/9781003166375-3
* Wu, Jennifer, et al. "Are Dead People Voting By Mail? Evidence From Washington State Administrative Records" (Stanford Institute for Economic and Policy Research, 2020) summary; Examination of 4.5 million distinct votes in Washington state (2011 to 2018) found 14 cases of individuals whose ballots were cast suspiciously after their death, representing one vote per 300,000.