Icelandic European Union membership referendum

Proposed Icelandic referendum

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A referendum on the resumption of European Union membership negotiations has been proposed to be held in Iceland. The referendum was suggested after the Independence Party and the Progressive Party formed a coalition government following the April 2013 parliamentary elections.[1] The previous Social Democratic Alliance-led government had suspended opening of new chapters within the accession negotiations prior to the election (the opened chapters are still negotiated about), and the incoming government vowed not to resume them unless they were first given a mandate to do so by a referendum.

## Background

[edit]

The then Social Democratic Alliance led government of Iceland applied to join the EU in July 2009 after the country suffered a severe financial crisis. Despite three years of negotiations, several major issues remain outstanding, including the Common Fisheries Policy.[1] On 14 January, the Icelandic government announced that negotiations would be suspended until after the parliamentary election in April.[2] No new chapters will be opened prior to the election, though negotiations will continue on chapters that have already been opened.[3] The ruling left-wing parties suffered a major defeat in the elections, while the centrist Progressive Party had a large victory.

The leaders of the Progressive Party and the Independence Party, which both oppose Icelandic EU membership, announced on 22 May 2013 that a coalition platform had been reached that would suspend all accession talks with the EU and not resume them unless first approved by a referendum.[1][4][5] The advisor to Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson, the incoming Prime Minister, stated that "later in the term there will be a referendum on whether Iceland should continue the talks, although no date has been decided."[6][7] The new Finance Minister Bjarni Benediktsson stated that "We believe the accession talks were started without the necessary support in Iceland. We will not go further with the talks. We also have to listen to what the EU has to say about our approach; maybe it will make no sense to hold a referendum"[8]

On 22 February, the governing parties agreed to formally withdraw the membership application, without first holding a referendum on the matter, and submitted a bill to parliament seeking their approval to do so.[9][10] However, on February 25, Ragnheiður Ríkharðsdóttir, Chairman of the Independence Party parliamentarian group, announced her intention to not vote in favour of the proposal.[11]

The Independence/Progressive coalition lost its majority in the 2016 Icelandic parliamentary election. After several failed attempts to form a government from alternative combinations, a new coalition was formed in January 2017, led by the Independence party and joined by Regeneration and Bright Future, both of whom support EU membership and the former of whom was originally a splinter movement that left the Independence party over this very issue. The coalition deal included a pledge to hold a parliamentary vote on whether to hold an EU membership referendum.

On 21 March 2022, party leaders from the Social Democratic Alliance, the Pirate Party and Viðreisn, have submitted their proposals to the Althing that an EU membership referendum be held before the end of 2022.[12][13]

On 15 September 2022, the three party leaders from those parties made a draft question to the referendum: "Do you want Iceland to take up the matter in negotiations with the European Union with the aim of concluding a membership agreement that would be submitted to the nation for approval or rejection? Answer options would be yes or no."[14]

On 20 September, the leader of the Social Democratic Alliance, Logi Már Einarsson, wrote a speech for Icelandic President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson requesting the referendum before the end of 2023.[15]

On 23 March 2023, according to Jon Steindor Valdimarsson, as the polls indicates that 66% supported on the referendum, he believed that such scenario would be that such referendum should be held before the next elections in 2025.[16]

On 18 September 2023, a draft bill for the referendum was proposed by Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, with support from the members of the Social Democratic Alliance, the Pirate Party and Viðreisn, including Logi Már.[17] As of 10 October 2024, it is now in the hands of the Foreign Affairs Committee.[17]

Following the 2024 Icelandic parliamentary election, the Social Democratic Alliance, Viðreisn and People's Party formed a new coalition government, which agreed to hold a referendum on resuming negotiations on EU membership by 2027.[18] Prior to organizing the referendum, the new government will first establish a panel of independent experts to assess the advantages and disadvantages of retaining the Icelandic crown compared to adopting the euro currency, which it believes will ensure a more mature debate.[19]

## Public opinion

[edit]

See also: Iceland–European Union relations § Public opinion

In May 2013 voter support for joining the European Union was at 25%.[20] A poll released in January 2014 found that 67.5% of Icelanders support holding a referendum on the continuation of accession negotiations.[21] The government's decision in late February to withdraw Iceland's membership application without a referendum led to thousands of protesters taking to the streets outside of the Parliament buildings in Reykjavik.[22][23][24] By 28 February 2014, 82% were in favour of holding the referendum.[25] As of 20 January 2015[update], 53,555 people (22.1% of Iceland's voters) had signed a petition demanding that the promised referendum be held.[26] A Gallup poll conducted in the early days of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine indicated a plurality of support among Icelanders (47%) for joining the European Union.[27]

Opinion polls on Icelandic membership in the European Union  Institute  | Release date  | For  | Against  | Unsure  | Net for

|
|
|
|
|

Prósent[28] | 9 January 2025
(17-31 December 2024) | 45%  | 35%  | 20%  | +10%
Maskína[29] | 1 October 2024
(16-24 September 2024) | 45.3%  | 35.7%  | 16.0%  | +9.6%
Maskína[30] | 4 July 2024
(13-20 June 2024) | 42.4%  | 35.7%  | 21.9%  | +6.7%
Maskína[31] | 15 September 2023
(17-22 August 2023) | 40%  | 33%  | 27%  | +7%
Maskína[32] | 9 May 2023
(24-28 April 2023) | 44%  | 34%  | 22%  | +10%
Maskína[33] | 12 February 2023
(3-7 February 2023) | 40.8%  | 35.9%  | 23.3%  | +4.9%
Prósent[34][35] | 24 November 2022 | 42.8%  | 35.1%  | 22.1%  | +7.7%
Prósent[36] | 18 June 2022 | 48.5%  | 34.9%  | 16.7%  | +13.6%
Gallup[37] | 9 March 2022 | 47%  | 33%  | 20%  | +14%
MMR | 2 May 2017 | 28.6%  | 48.7%  | 22.7%  | -20.1%
MMR | 24 February 2017 | 26.4%  | 54.9%  | 18.7%  | -28.5%
Vísir | 21 March 2015 | 29%  | 71%  | –  | -42%
MMR | 14 July 2014 | 37.4%  | 45.1%  | 17.5%  | -7.7%
Gallup | 5 March 2014 | 27.6%  | 52.2%  | 20.2%  | -24.9%
Capacent Archived 2013-12-08 at the Wayback Machine | 19 November 2013 | 41.7%  | 58.3%  | –  | -16.6%
Maskína | 19 November 2013 | 27.4%  | 50.7%  | 20.9%  | -23.3%
Capacent-Gallup | 18 June 2011 | 37.3%  | 50.1%  | 12.6%  | -12.8%
MMR | 12 May 2011 | 26.3%  | 58.7%  | 15.0%  | -32.4%
Capacent | 18 October 2008 | 48.7%  | 27.0%  | 24.3%  | +21.7%
Institute  | Release date  | For  | Against  | Unsure  | Net for

## See also

[edit]

* Iceland–European Union relations

## References

[edit]

1. ^ a b c Icelanders to get a referendum on joining the EU BBC News, 22 May 2013
2. ^ "Iceland Won't Finish EU Talks Before Next Parliament Elections". Businessweek. 2012-03-26. Archived from the original on January 18, 2013. Retrieved 2013-03-12.
3. ^ "BREAKING NEWS: Iceland to Slow Down EU Talks". Iceland Review. 2013-01-14. Archived from the original on 2013-10-24. Retrieved 2013-01-14.
4. ^ Gardner, Andrew (2013-05-23). "Iceland to hold vote on EU accession talks". Politico Europe. Retrieved 2013-05-26.
5. ^ "Stjórnarsáttmáli kynntur á Laugarvatni". 22 May 2013. Archived from the original on 11 November 2013. Retrieved 22 May 2013.
6. ^ "Government to halt EU accession talks indefinitely". 2013-05-25. Archived from the original on 2014-07-31. Retrieved 2013-05-26.
7. ^ "Iceland Freezes EU Plans as New Government Shuns Euro Crisis". 2013-05-22. Retrieved 2013-05-26.
8. ^ Milne, Richard (2013-05-22). "Iceland's new coalition government suspends EU accession talks". Financial Times. Retrieved 2013-05-26.
9. ^ "Iceland moves to withdraw EU application". The Hindu. 2014-02-22. Retrieved 2014-02-22.
10. ^ "Iceland to withdraw EU membership bid amid protests". IceNews. 2014-02-26. Retrieved 2014-03-01.
11. ^ Stefánsson, Páll (2014-02-26). "Ten Percent of Icelanders Sign EU Referendum Petition". Iceland Review. Retrieved 2014-03-01.
12. ^ johannav (2022-03-21). "Vilja þjóðaratkvæðagreiðslu um ESB-aðild". RÚV (in Icelandic). Retrieved 2022-04-02.
13. ^ "From Iceland — Question Of Iceland Joining The EU Hangs In The Balance In Parliament". The Reykjavik Grapevine. 2022-03-22. Retrieved 2022-04-02.
14. ^ johannav (2022-09-15). "Vilja þjóðaratkvæðagreiðslu um viðræður við ESB". RÚV (in Icelandic). Retrieved 2022-09-30.
15. ^ "þjóðaratkvæðagreiðsla um framhald viðræðna við Evrópusambandið". Alþingi (in Icelandic). Retrieved 2022-10-10.
16. ^ lars. "Iceland starting to ponder EU membership". Nordic Labour Journal.
17. ^ a b "Þjóðaratkvæðagreiðsla um framhald viðræðna við Evrópusambandið". Alþingi (in Icelandic). Retrieved 2024-02-14.
18. ^ "Iceland's Social Democrats Reach Deal for New Government". BNN Bloomberg. 2024-12-21. Retrieved 2024-12-21.
19. ^ Jón Ísak Ragnarsson (21 December 2024). "Þjóðaratkvæðagreiðsla um ESB eigi síðar en 2027" [Referendum on EU no later than 2027] (in Icelandic). Visir. Retrieved 30 December 2024.
20. ^ Iceland heads for EU referendum The Daily Telegraph, 22 May 2013
21. ^ Fontaine, Paul (2014-01-31). "Most Icelanders Want Vote On Finishing EU Talks". The Reykjavík Grapevine. Archived from the original on 2014-02-04. Retrieved 2014-02-22.
22. ^ Robert, Zoë (2014-02-25). "Three Thousand Protest outside Parliament". Iceland Review. Retrieved 2014-03-01.
23. ^ Robert, Zoë (2014-02-24). "Icelanders Protest Government's Plans to Stop EU Talks". Iceland Review. Archived from the original on 2014-03-05. Retrieved 2014-03-01.
24. ^ Milne, Richard (2014-02-27). "Thousands demand EU referendum in Iceland". Financial Times. Retrieved 2014-03-01.
25. ^ Robert, Zoë (2014-02-28). "Eighty-Two Percent Want EU Referendum". Iceland Review. Retrieved 2014-03-01.
26. ^ SVALA ARNARSDÓTTIR, EYGLÓ (2015-01-20). "Pro-EU Rally Underway in Iceland". Iceland Review. Retrieved 2015-02-19.
27. ^ Gallup: Largest Portion Of Icelanders Favour Joining The European Union Reykjavik Grapevine, 10 March 2022
28. ^ Darren Adam (2025-01-09). "Poll: majority support EU negotiations". RÚV. Retrieved 2025-01-09.
29. ^ "Aldrei fleiri verið hlynnt aðild Íslands að ESB" (in Icelandic). Heimildin. 2024-10-01. Retrieved 2024-10-21.
30. ^ "Meirihluti þjóðarinnar styður aðildarviðræður við ESB" (in Icelandic). Visir. 2024-07-04. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
31. ^ "Mikill meirihluti vill kjósa um ESB aðild – Sjálfstæðismenn og Miðflokksmenn skera sig úr" (in Icelandic). DV. 2023-09-15. Retrieved 2023-09-17.
32. ^ "44% vilja að Ísland gangi í Evrópusambandið" (in Icelandic). RUV. 2023-05-09. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
33. ^ "Fleiri hlynntir en mótfallnir ESB-aðild" (in Icelandic). Maskína. 2023-02-12. Retrieved 2023-02-13.
34. ^ "Fréttablaðið (fimmtudaginn 24. nóvember 2022)" [The Newspaper (thursday 24 November 2022)] (PDF) (in Icelandic). Fréttablaðið. 24 November 2022.
35. ^ "Þriðja könnunin í röð sem sýnir meirihluta fyrir aðild að Evrópusambandinu". Kjarninn (in Icelandic). 2022-11-24. Retrieved 2023-01-25.
36. ^ "Nærri helmingur Íslendinga hlynntur aðild að Evrópusambandinu" (in Icelandic). Kjarninn. 2022-06-18. Archived from the original on 19 December 2022. Retrieved 2022-12-17.
37. ^ "Afstaða til veru Íslands í NATO og aðildar að ESB | Þjóðarpúls" [Position on Iceland's presence in NATO and membership in the EU (National Pulse)] (in Icelandic). Gallup. 2022-03-09. Archived from the original on 10 March 2022. Retrieved 2022-03-09.

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