Next Irish general election

Election to the 35th Dáil

Next Irish general election

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| <- 2024 | No later than January 2030 |

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174 seats in Dáil Éireann
88 seats needed for a majority
| Party  | Leader  | Current seats

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| Fianna Fáil | Micheál Martin | 48
| Sinn Féin | Mary Lou McDonald | 39
| Fine Gael | Simon Harris | 38
| Labour | Ivana Bacik | 11
| Social Democrats | Holly Cairns | 10
| Independent Ireland | Michael Collins | 4
| PBP–Solidarity | Collective leadership | 3
| Aontú | Peadar Tóibín | 2
| Green | Roderic O'Gorman | 1
| 100% Redress | Tómas Seán Devine | 1
| Independent | —  | 16
| Ceann Comhairle | Verona Murphy | 1

Incumbent Taoiseach |

|

Micheál Martin
Fianna Fáil |

The next Irish general election to elect the 35th Dáil must be held no later than January 2030.

## Date of election

[edit]

The 34th Dáil first met on 18 December 2024. Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting".[1] It must therefore be dissolved no later than 17 December 2029. The taoiseach may advise the president to dissolve at any time. If a taoiseach has ceased to retain the support of the majority of the Dáil, the president may in their absolute discretion refuse to dissolve the Dáil. To date, no president has refused to dissolve the Dáil.

When the Dáil is dissolved, the Clerk of the Dáil must issue a writ of election to the returning officer for each constituency.[2] The election must take place on a date set by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day, being Sundays, public holidays and Good Friday) after the writs have been issued.[3][4][5]

## Electoral system

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Main article: Single transferable vote

There are currently 174 TDs returned in 43 Dáil constituencies of between three and five seats each. The Electoral Commission will be required to review the size of the Dáil and the arrangement of constituencies after the 2027 census.

Under the system of single transferable vote (STV), each voter may mark any number of the candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid ballots by one more than the number of seats (for example, a quarter of the valid ballots in a three-seat constituency, a fifth of those in a four-seat constituency, and a sixth of those in a five-seat constituency) and then adding one vote. Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected.[6]

If in the first count fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, if any successful candidates have more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates based on the next usable marked preference on the ballot papers. If it still happens that fewer candidates have reached the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is excluded from the count and those ballot papers are transferred to the next usable marked preference. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have reached the quota to fill the available seats, or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution, then the highest place candidate, even if not having quota, is deemed elected.[7]

The Ceann Comhairle (Verona Murphy, since December 2024[update]) immediately before the dissolution of the 34th Dáil will automatically be deemed to be elected a member of the 35th Dáil, unless she decides not to seek re-election. This is provided for under the Constitution and electoral law.[8]

## Opinion polls

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### Graphical summary

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### Polls

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Last date
of polling  | Commissioner  | Polling firm  | Sample
size  | Margin
of error  | Sources  | FF | FG | SF | SD | Lab | Aon | II | GP | PBP–S | O/I[nb 1]

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|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
17 Apr 2025  | Irish Times | Ipsos B&A  | 1,200  | 2.8  | [p 1] | 22  | 16  | 26 | 7  | 4  | 1  | – [nb 2] | 3  | 3  | 17
4 Apr 2025  | Sunday Independent | Ireland Thinks  | 2,072  | 2.2  | [p 2] | 25 | 21  | 21  | 8  | 4  | 4  | 4  | 2  | 3  | 9
26 Mar 2025  | Business Post | Red C  | 1,002  | 3.0  | [p 3] | 22 | 17  | 22 | 7  | 4  | 4  | 4  | 3  | 3  | 13
28 Feb 2025  | Sunday Independent | Ireland Thinks  | 1,373  | 2.7  | [p 4] | 22 | 22 | 21  | 7  | 4  | 3  | 5  | 2  | 2  | 11
19 Feb 2025  | Business Post | Red C  | 1,029  | 3.0  | [p 5] | 20  | 20  | 23 | 7  | 4  | 4  | 4  | 3  | 3  | 11
1 Feb 2025  | Sunday Independent | Ireland Thinks  | 1,591  | 2.5  | [p 6][p 7] | 24 | 20  | 22  | 8  | 4  | 4  | 4  | 3  | 2  | 9
22 Jan 2025  | Business Post | Red C  | 1,003  | 3.1  | [p 8] | 22 | 20  | 22 | 7  | 3  | 4  | 3  | 3  | 2  | 13
11 Jan 2025  | Sunday Independent | Ireland Thinks  | 1,206  | 2.9  | [p 9] | 23.8 | 22.3  | 19.3  | 7.3  | 3.8  | 5.3  | 4.9  | 2.3  | 2.2  | 8.8
29 November 2024 | General election | –  | –  | –  | –  | 21.9 | 20.8  | 19.0  | 4.8  | 4.7  | 3.9  | 3.6  | 3.0  | 2.8  | 15.5

Notes

1. ^ The figure for "Others and Independents" is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
2. ^ Not specifically mentioned in the report.

## References

[edit]

Notes

Poll references

1. ^ Leahy, Pat (17 April 2025). "Irish Times poll: Sinn Féin back on top as Fine Gael support slides to 30-year low". The Irish Times. Retrieved 17 April 2025.
2. ^ Gataveckaite, Gabija (5 April 2025). "Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil see bounce in support after meeting with Donald Trump, new Sunday Independent poll shows". Irish Independent. Retrieved 5 April 2025.
3. ^ Thomas, Cónal (29 March 2025). "Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps to lowest level of support with party five points behind Fianna Fáil". Business Post.
4. ^ Molony, Senan (1 March 2025). "Fine Gael up two points as Fianna Fáil drops, new 'Sunday Independent' opinion poll finds". Sunday Independent. Retrieved 1 March 2025.
5. ^ Moore, Jane (23 February 2025). "Opinion poll: Small drop in support for Fianna Fáil, with respondents citing missed housing targets". TheJournal.ie. Retrieved 23 February 2025.
6. ^ Gataveckaite, Gabija (1 February 2025). "Sinn Féin up as Fine Gael slips: Poll reveals housing is still biggest issue for public". Sunday Independent. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
7. ^ Cunningham, Paul (1 February 2025). "Support for Sinn Féin has increases while Fine Gael has slid, opinion poll suggests". RTÉ News. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
8. ^ Thomas, Cónal (25 January 2025). "Sinn Féin bounce back but government parties in strong position as new coalition gets to work". Business Post. Retrieved 26 January 2025.
9. ^ Gataveckaite, Gabija (11 January 2025). "Post-election bounce for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but support for Independents falls". Sunday Independent. Retrieved 13 January 2025.

General references

1. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 33: Maximum duration of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 33). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
2. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 39: Issue and return of writs (No. 23 of 1992, s. 39). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
3. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 96: Times of poll (No. 23 of 1992, s. 96). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.; Electoral (Amendment) Act 2001, s. 23: Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act (No. 38 of 2001, s. 23). Enacted on 24 October 2001. Act of the Oireachtas. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
4. ^ "Dáil Éireann". Citizens Information. 30 August 2023. Archived from the original on 18 March 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
5. ^ "Constitution of Ireland". Irish Statute Book. January 2020. Archived from the original on 23 April 2022. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
6. ^ A Guide to Ireland's PR-STV Voting System (PDF) (Report). Ireland Department of Housing, Planning & Local Government. November 2018.
7. ^ "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 7 March 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2019.; "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Archived from the original on 14 January 2020. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
8. ^ Electoral Act 1992, s. 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil (No. 23 of 1992, s. 36). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas. Archived from the original on 8 December 2015. Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 16 June 2020.

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