Next Senedd election

Upcoming general election to be held in Wales

Next Senedd election

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| <- 2021 | due on or before 7 May 2026 |

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<- outgoing members

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All 60 seats to the Senedd
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
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Leader  | TBD | Andrew RT Davies
Party  | Labour | Conservative
Leader since  | TBD  | 24 January 2021
Leader's seat  | N/A  | South Wales Central
Current seats  | 30  | 16
Seats needed  | 1  | 15

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|  |
Leader  | Rhun ap Iorwerth | Jane Dodds
Party  | Plaid Cymru | Liberal Democrats
Leader since  | 16 June 2023 | 3 November 2017
Leader's seat  | Ynys Môn | Mid and West Wales
Current seats  | 12  | 1
Seats needed  | 19  | 30

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| Incumbent First Minister

Mark Drakeford
Labour

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The next Senedd election is due to be held in or before May 2026[1] to elect 60 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.

A reform of the voting system is being discussed by the Senedd, with the Government of Wales seeking to implement it for the next election. Electoral reform for the Senedd is being suggested in multiple areas, including increasing the size of the Senedd from 60 to 96 MSs, changing the voting method to a closed list proportional representation system, reducing the number of constituencies to 16 with each electing six MSs, and enforcing gender quotas.

## Retiring members[edit]

The following MSs have announced their intention not run for re-election:

MS  | Constituency/Region  | First elected  | Party  | Date announced

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Mark Drakeford | Cardiff West | 2011 |  | Labour | 9 August 2023[2]

## Election reform[edit]

See also: Senedd constituencies and electoral regions

Since its establishment in 1999, the Senedd (formerly the Welsh Assembly) has been elected through the additional member system, by which some of the seats (in Wales, 20 out of 60) are attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a party list, while the other seats are attributed through the customary plurality voting in single-member districts (40 out of 60, the same as those used for Westminster). AMS distributes the seats with the intent of compensating for disproportionalities caused by plurality voting.

### Senedd reform[edit]

Main article: Senedd Reform Bill

16 constituencies are proposed to be created from these 32 new parliamentary constituencies

A Special Committee was set up in October 2021 to look at Senedd reform.[3] In May 2022, a joint position statement was published by First Minister Mark Drakeford and Plaid Cymru Leader Adam Price, and sent to the Special Committee,[4] calling for a 96-Member Senedd, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method) with mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women (unlike the voluntary all-women shortlists used by the Labour Party). The elections would be organised in 16 six-member regions created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[5]

The final report of the Special Committee was published on 30 May 2022 and recommends the system agreed to by the Labour and Plaid Cymru leaders.[6] Although the Expert Panel preferred the single transferable vote to any other method, the closed list PR system was favoured by the Committee because of its capacity to enforce gender quotas through mandatory zipping.[6] The report was discussed and approved in plenary session on 8 June 2022.[7]

In February 2023, plans for additional reform included:

* Candidates must be resident in Wales
* A defection of an MS to another party is not permitted. An MS would instead have to become an independent.
* Independent candidates must disclose any party membership[8]

## Opinion polling[edit]

### Constituency vote[edit]

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Constituency Votes. Pollster  | Client  | Dates
conducted  | Sample
size  | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | AWA | Green | Reform | Other  | Lead

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|  |  |  |  |  |
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 12–13 Nov 2023  | 1,100  | 40% | 23%  | 18%  | 3%  | 3%  | 4%  | 7%  | 1%  | 17
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 14–15 Oct 2023  | 959  | 37% | 27%  | 18%  | 4%  | 5%  | 3%  | 6%  | \-  | 10
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 16–17 Sep 2023  | 1,172  | 39% | 27%  | 18%  | 5%  | 1%  | 6%  | 3%  | 1%  | 12
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1–6 Sep 2023  | 1,051  | 41% | 18%  | 19%  | 6%  | –  | 4%  | 8%  | 7%  | 22
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 13–14 Aug 2023  | 1,068  | 37% | 21%  | 20%  | 6%  | –  | 3%  | 9%  | 4%  | 16
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 14–16 Jul 2023  | 1,050  | 42% | 22%  | 16%  | 6%  | –  | 3%  | 7%  | 3%  | 20
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 17–18 Jun 2023  | 1,000  | 36% | 22%  | 19%  | 7%  | –  | 3%  | 10%  | 3%  | 14
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 12–17 May 2023  | 1,064  | 40% | 18%  | 17%  | 7%  | –  | 5%  | 8%  | 4%  | 22
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 14–15 May 2023  | 1,058  | 38% | 23%  | 20%  | 7%  | –  | 3%  | 7%  | 2%  | 15
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 15–17 Apr 2023  | 1,251  | 41% | 21%  | 20%  | 5%  | –  | 4%  | 8%  | 2%  | 20
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 3–7 Feb 2023  | 1,081  | 43% | 18%  | 20%  | 4%  | –  | 4%  | 9%  | 1%  | 23
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 25 Nov - 1 Dec 2022  | 1,042  | 44% | 17%  | 20%  | 6%  | –  | 3%  | 7%  | 4%  | 24
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 20–22 Sep 2022  | 1,014  | 40% | 20%  | 22%  | 6%  | –  | 3%  | 5%  | 4%  | 18
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 12–16 Jun 2022  | 1,020  | 37% | 24%  | 21%  | 6%  | –  | 5%  | 5%  | 3%  | 13
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 25 Feb - 1 Mar 2022  | 1,086  | 38% | 24%  | 21%  | 6%  | –  | 3%  | 5%  | 4%  | 14
YouGov | ITV Wales | 13–16 Dec 2021  | 1,009  | 40% | 23%  | 17%  | 4%  | –  | 5%  | 7%  | 4%  | 17
YouGov | ITV Wales | 13–16 Sep 2021  | 1,057  | 37% | 27%  | 19%  | 5%  | –  | 4%  | 5%  | 5%  | 10
2021 Senedd election[9] | 6 May 2021  | –  | 39.9% | 26.1%  | 20.3%  | 4.9%  | 1.6%  | 1.6%  | 1.6%  | 4.0%  | 13.8

### Regional vote[edit]

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Senedd Election Regional List Votes. Pollster  | Client  | Dates
conducted  | Sample
size  | Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Green | Lib Dems | AWA | UKIP | Reform | Others  | Lead

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|  |  |  |  |  |  |
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 12–13 Nov 2023  | 1,100  | 32% | 21%  | 18%  | 9%  | 6%  | 5%  | –  | 7%  | 1%  | 11
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 14–15 Oct 2023  | 959  | 31% | 21%  | 24%  | 4%  | 5%  | 7%  | –  | 8%  | –  | 10
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 16–17 Sep 2023  | 1,172  | 35% | 21%  | 18%  | 6%  | 12%  | 2%  | –  | 5%  | 1%  | 14
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 1–6 Sep 2023  | 1,051  | 34% | 16%  | 20%  | 6%  | 6%  | 9%  | 1%  | 6%  | 2%  | 14
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 13–14 Aug 2023  | 1,068  | 31% | 19%  | 22%  | 6%  | 10%  | –  | –  | 10%  | 3%  | 9
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 14–16 Jul 2023  | 1,050  | 33% | 20%  | 19%  | 6%  | 10%  | –  | –  | 6%  | 4%  | 13
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 17–18 Jun 2023  | 1,000  | 30% | 22%  | 20%  | 6%  | 9%  | –  | –  | 8%  | 4%  | 8
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 12–17 May 2023  | 1,064  | 36% | 16%  | 18%  | 7%  | 7%  | 5%  | 1%  | 7%  | 1%  | 18
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 14–15 May 2023  | 1,058  | 30% | 21%  | 24%  | 4%  | 10%  | –  | –  | 8%  | 4%  | 6
Redfield & Wilton | N/A  | 15–17 Apr 2023  | 1,251  | 32% | 22%  | 23%  | 7%  | 8%  | –  | –  | 7%  | 2%  | 9
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 3–7 Feb 2023  | 1,081  | 39% | 18%  | 20%  | 5%  | 5%  | 6%  | 0%  | 6%  | 1%  | 19
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 25 Nov - 1 Dec 2022  | 1,042  | 38% | 16%  | 23%  | 5%  | 4%  | 8%  | 2%  | 4%  |

Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%

| 15
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 20–22 Sep 2022  | 1,014  | 37% | 18%  | 21%  | 5%  | 5%  | 7%  | 2%  | 4%  | 1%  | 16
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 12–16 Jun 2022  | 1,020  | 31% | 21%  | 24%  | 6%  | 5%  | 6%  | 2%  | 6%  |

Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%

| 7
YouGov | Barn Cymru | 25 Feb - 1 Mar 2022  | 1,086  | 34% | 23%  | 20%  | 4%  | 6%  | 6%  | 1%  | 3%  |

Gwlad on 1%
Other on 1%

| 11
YouGov | ITV Wales | 13–16 Dec 2021  | 1,009  | 35% | 22%  | 19%  | 7%  | 3%  | 6%  | 2%  | 5%  | 1%  | 13
YouGov | ITV Wales | 13–16 Sep 2021  | 1,057  | 33% | 26%  | 19%  | 5%  | 4%  | 6%  | 4%  | 2%  | 1%  | 7
2021 Senedd election[9] | 6 May 2021  | –  | 36.2% | 25.1%  | 20.7%  | 4.4%  | 4.3%  | 3.7%  | 1.6%  | 1.1%  | 2.9%  | 11.1

## See also[edit]

* Next Scottish Parliament election
* Next Northern Ireland Assembly election
* Next United Kingdom general election in Wales
* Next United Kingdom general election

## References[edit]

1. ^ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
2. ^ "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. 9 August 2023. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
3. ^ "Special Purpose Committee on Senedd Reform". senedd.wales. 6 October 2021.
4. ^ "Press release: A way forward for Senedd reform". Government of Wales. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 19 May 2022.
5. ^ "Welsh Conservative MS resigns from Senedd reform group after Labour and Plaid's 'completely out of order stunt'". Welsh Conservatives. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
6. ^ a b "Reforming our Senedd: A stronger voice for the people of Wales" (PDF). Government of Wales. 30 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
7. ^ "Vote Outcomes Plenary 08/06/2022". Welsh Parliament. 8 June 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
8. ^ "Senedd candidates must live in Wales under plans". BBC News. 16 February 2023. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
9. ^ a b Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.

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