Next Spanish general election

* * *

| <- 2023 | No later than 22 August 2027 |

|
|

<- outgoing members

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All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 (of 266) seats in the Senate
176 seats needed for a majority in the Congress of Deputies
Opinion polls
|  |  |  |

|
|
|

Leader  | Alberto Núñez Feijóo | Pedro Sánchez | Santiago Abascal
Party  | PP | PSOE | Vox
Leader since  | 2 April 2022 | 18 June 2017 | 20 September 2014
Leader's seat  | Madrid | Madrid | Madrid
Last election  | 137 seats, 33.1%  | 121 seats, 31.7%  | 33 seats, 12.4%
Current seats  | 137  | 121  | 33
Seats needed  | 39  | 55  | 143

* * *

|  |  |
Leader  | Yolanda Díaz | Gabriel Rufián | Míriam Nogueras
Party  | Sumar | ERC | Junts
Leader since  | 2 April 2023  | 14 October 2019  | 12 March 2021
Leader's seat  | Madrid | Barcelona | Barcelona
Last election  | 31 seats, 12.3%  | 7 seats, 1.9%  | 7 seats, 1.6%
Current seats  | 26  | 7  | 7
Seats needed  | 150  | N/A[b] | N/A[a]

* * *

Constituencies for the Congress of Deputies

* * *

| Incumbent Prime Minister

Pedro Sánchez
PSOE

|

The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 22 August 2027, to elect the 16th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 265 seats in the Senate.

The inconclusive result of the 2023 election raised the possibility of a repeat election being held by late 2023 or early 2024. However, an agreement was ultimately reached between the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) to support the re-election of incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in exchange of a controversial amnesty law for Catalan politicians convicted or investigated for events related to the 2017–2018 Spanish constitutional crisis and the 2019–2020 Catalan protests.[1][2] Sánchez's investiture was materialized on 16 November 2023, allowing him to form his third cabinet.[3]

## Overview[edit]

### Electoral system[edit]

The Spanish Cortes Generales are envisaged as an imperfect bicameral system. The Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, having the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a prime minister and to override Senate vetoes by an absolute majority of votes. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive (yet limited in number) functions—such as its role in constitutional amendment—which are not subject to the Congress' override.[4][5] Voting for the Cortes Generales is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 seats are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Spain, with each being allocated an initial minimum of two seats and the remaining 248 being distributed in proportion to their populations. Ceuta and Melilla are allocated the two remaining seats, which are elected using plurality voting.[4][6] The use of the D'Hondt method may result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[7]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Congress multi-member constituency would be entitled the following seats:

Seats  | Constituencies

|

37 | Madrid
32 | Barcelona
16 | Valencia
12 | Alicante, Seville
11 | Málaga
10 | Murcia
9 | Cádiz
8 | A Coruña, Balearic Islands, Biscay, Las Palmas
7 | Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Zaragoza, Santa Cruz de Tenerife
6 | Almería, Córdoba, Gipuzkoa, Girona, Tarragona, Toledo
5 | Badajoz, Cantabria, Castellón, Ciudad Real, Huelva, Jaén, Navarre, Valladolid
4 | Álava, Albacete, Burgos, Cáceres, La Rioja, León, Lleida, Lugo, Ourense, Salamanca
3 | Ávila, Cuenca, Guadalajara, Huesca, Palencia, Segovia, Teruel, Zamora
2 | Soria

For the Senate, 208 seats are elected using an open list partial block voting system, with electors voting for individual candidates instead of parties. In constituencies electing four seats, electors can vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member districts. Each of the 47 peninsular provinces is allocated four seats, whereas for insular provinces, such as the Balearic and Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Majorca, Gran Canaria and Tenerife—being allocated three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, Ibiza–Formentera, Fuerteventura, La Gomera, El Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla elect two seats each. Additionally, autonomous communities can appoint at least one senator each and are entitled to one additional senator per each million inhabitants.[4][6]

### Election date[edit]

The term of each chamber of the Cortes Generales—the Congress and the Senate—expires four years from the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official State Gazette (BOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 23 July 2023, which means that the legislature's term will expire on 23 July 2027. The election decree must be published in the BOE no later than 29 June 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes Generales on Sunday, 22 August 2027.[6]

The prime minister has the prerogative to dissolve both chambers at any given time—either jointly or separately—and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no state of emergency is in force and that dissolution does not occur before one year has elapsed since the previous one. Additionally, both chambers are to be dissolved and a new election called if an investiture process fails to elect a prime minister within a two-month period from the first ballot.[4] Barred this exception, there is no constitutional requirement for simultaneous elections for the Congress and the Senate. Still, as of 2024 there has been no precedent of separate elections taking place under the 1978 Constitution.

## Parliamentary composition[edit]

The tables below show the composition of the parliamentary groups in both chambers.[8][9]

Current parliamentary composition[10] | Congress of Deputies

Groups  | Parties  | Deputies
Seats  | Total
| People's Parliamentary Group in the Congress  |  | PP | 137  | 137
| Socialist Parliamentary Group  |  | PSOE | 102  | 121
| PSC | 19
| Vox Parliamentary Group  |  | Vox | 33  | 33
| Unite Plurinational Parliamentary Group  |  | SMR | 10  | 27
| CatComú | 6
| IU | 5
| MM | 2
| Compromís | 2
| CHA | 1
| Més | 1
| Republican Parliamentary Group  |  | ERC | 7  | 7
| Together for Catalonia Parliamentary Group  |  | JxCat | 7  | 7
| EH Bildu Parliamentary Group  |  | EH Bildu | 6  | 6
| Basque Parliamentary Group (EAJ/PNV)  |  | EAJ/PNV | 5  | 5
| Mixed Parliamentary Group  |  | Podemos | 4  | 7
| BNG | 1
| CCa | 1
| UPN | 1
Current parliamentary composition[11] | Senate

Groups  | Parties  | Senators
Seats  | Total
| People's Parliamentary Group in the Senate  |  | PP | 144  | 144
| Socialist Parliamentary Group  |  | PSOE | 74  | 89
| PSC | 15
| Left for Independence
(Republican Left–EH Bildu)
Parliamentary Group  |  | ERC | 6  | 11
| EH Bildu | 5
| Plural Parliamentary Group
in the Senate (JxCat–CCa–AHI–BNG)  |  | JxCat | 3  | 6
| CCa | 1
| AHI | 1
| BNG | 1
| Basque Parliamentary Group
in the Senate (EAJ/PNV)  |  | EAJ/PNV | 5  | 6
| PSOE | 1
| Confederal Left Parliamentary Group
(More Madrid, Ibiza and Formentera in the Senate,
Commitment and Gomera Socialist Group)  |  | MM | 1  | 6
| EiFS | 1
| Compromís | 1
| ASG | 1
| GBai | 1
| PSOE | 1
| Mixed Parliamentary Group  |  | Vox | 3  | 4
| UPN | 1

## Parties and candidates[edit]

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties, federations or coalitions that have not obtained a mandate in either chamber of the Cortes at the preceding election are required to secure the signature of at least 0.1 percent of electors in the aforementioned constituencies.[6] The electoral law provides for a special, simplified process for election re-runs, including a shortening of deadlines, the lifting of signature requirements if these had been already met for the immediately previous election and the possibility of maintaining lists and coalitions without needing to go through pre-election procedures again.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy  | Parties and
alliances  | Leading candidate  | Ideology  | Previous result  | Gov. | Ref.

|
|
|
|
|
|

Votes (%)  | Con. | Sen.
| PP |

List

* People's Party (PP)
* Navarre Platform (PN)

|  | Alberto Núñez Feijóo | Conservatism
Christian democracy | 33.06%  | 137 | 120 | N |
| PSOE |

List

* Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
* Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)

|  | Pedro Sánchez | Social democracy | 31.68%  | 121 | 72 | Y |
| Vox |

List

* Vox (Vox)

|  | Santiago Abascal | Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism | 12.38%  | 33 | 0 | N |
| Sumar |

List

* Unite Movement (SMR)
* We Can (Podemos)
* United Left (IU)
– Communist Party of Spain (PCE)
– The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om))
– Ecosocialists of the Region of Murcia (ESRM)
– Initiative for El Hierro (IpH)
– Republican Left (IR)
* More Madrid (MM)
* Greens Equo (VQ)
* Green Alliance (AV)
* In Common We Can (ECP)
– Catalonia in Common (CatComú)
– Barcelona in Common (BComú)
– Green Left (EV)
* Commitment Coalition (Compromís)
– Més–Compromís (Més)
– Valencian People's Initiative (IdPV)
– Greens Equo of the Valencian Country (VerdsEquo)
* More for Mallorca (Més)
* More for Menorca (MxMe)
* Aragonese Union (CHA)
* Drago Canaries Party (DRG)
* Asturian Left (IAS)
* Assembly (Batzarre)
* Andalusian People's Initiative (IdPA)

|  | Yolanda Díaz | Progressivism
Left-wing populism
Green politics | 12.33%  | 31 | 0 | Y |
| Podemos |

List

* We Can (Podemos)

|  | Ione Belarra | Left-wing populism
Democratic socialism | N | [12]

| ERC |

List

* Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)
* Republican Left of the Valencian Country (ERPV)

|  | Gabriel Rufián | Catalan independence
Left-wing nationalism
Social democracy | 1.89%  | 7 | —[c] | N |
| Junts |

List

* Together for Catalonia (JxCat)
* Democrats of Catalonia (DC)
* Left Movement (MES)

|  | Míriam Nogueras | Catalan independence
Populism | 1.60%  | 7 | 1 | N |
| EH Bildu |

List

* Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu)
– Create (Sortu)
– Basque Solidarity (EA)
– Alternative (Alternatiba)

|  | Mertxe Aizpurua | Basque independence
Abertzale left
Socialism | 1.36%  | 6 | —[c] | N |
| EAJ/PNV |

List

* Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV)

|  | Aitor Esteban | Basque nationalism
Christian democracy
Social democracy | 1.12%  | 5 | 4 | N |
| BNG |

List

* Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG)
– Galician People's Union (UPG)
– Galician Movement for Socialism (MGS)
– Abrente–Galician Democratic Left (Abrente–EDG)
– Galician Workers' Front (FOGA)

|  | Néstor Rego | Galician nationalism
Left-wing nationalism
Socialism | 0.62%  | 1 | 0 | N |
| CCa |

List

* Canarian Coalition (CCa)
* Independent Herrenian Group (AHI)
* United for Gran Canaria (UxGC)
* United for Mogán (JPM)
* The Strength of Santa Lucía (La Fortaleza)
* Assembly of Neighbors of San Mateo (AVESAN)
* Socialist Group for Lanzarote (ASL)
* Tejeda for the Change (Tejeda por el Cambio)
* Local Platform for Santa Brígida (PVSB)
* Guía Now (AG)
* Democratic Centre Coalition (CCD)

|  | Cristina Valido | Regionalism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism | 0.47%  | 1 | 0 | N |
| UPN |

List

* Navarrese People's Union (UPN)

|  | Alberto Catalán  | Regionalism
Conservatism
Christian democracy | 0.21%  | 1 | 1 | N |
| ERC–
EH Bildu |

List

* Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)
* Basque Country Gather (EH Bildu)

|  | Mirella Cortès Gès | Left-wing nationalism | Senate  | 7[c] | N |
| ASG |

List

* Gomera Socialist Group (ASG)

|  | Fabián Chinea  | Insularism
Social democracy | Senate  | 1 | N |
| EFS |

List

* Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
* Unite Movement (SMR)
* United Left (EU)
* Now Ibiza (Ara Eivissa)

|  | Juanjo Ferrer  | Progressivism | Senate  | 1 | N |
| AHI |

List

* Independent Herrenian Group (AHI)

|  | Javier Armas  | Insularism
Canarian nationalism
Centrism | Senate  | 1 | N |

## Opinion polls[edit]

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Spanish general election

Local regression trend line of poll results from 23 July 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

## Notes[edit]

1. ^ Junts does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
2. ^ ERC does not field candidates outside of Catalonia (48 seats) and therefore cannot obtain a majority in parliament.
3. ^ a b c ERC (3 senators) and EH Bildu (4 senators) joined the IPLI alliance ahead of the 2023 Senate election.

## References[edit]

1. ^ "Spanish elections: Uncertainty hangs over future government". Euronews. 24 July 2023. Retrieved 24 July 2023.
2. ^ Pérez, Miriam (23 July 2023). "El escenario que no se puede descartar: un bloqueo tras el 23J y una repetición electoral para enero de 2024" (in Spanish). Business Insider. Retrieved 29 July 2023.
3. ^ Monrosi, José Enrique; Ortiz, Alberto (16 November 2023). "Pedro Sánchez es investido presidente del Gobierno con más apoyos que en 2020". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 November 2023.
4. ^ a b c d "Constitución Española". Constitution of 29 December 1978 (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 December 2016.
5. ^ "Constitución española, Sinopsis artículo 66". Congress of Deputies (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 September 2020.
6. ^ a b c d "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 July 2023.
7. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
8. ^ "Grupos Parlamentarios en el Congreso de los Diputados y el Senado". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
9. ^ "Composición del Senado 1977-2024". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 October 2022.
10. ^ "Grupos parlamentarios". Congress of Deputies (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 August 2023.
11. ^ "Grupos Parlamentarios desde 1977". Senate of Spain (in Spanish). Retrieved 8 July 2020.
12. ^ "Los cinco diputados de Podemos abandonan el grupo parlamentario de Sumar y se unen al grupo mixto" (in Spanish). Cadena SER. 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.

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