Probable defeat

Maoist theory

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Maoism

Concepts

* Agrarian socialism
* Antagonistic contradiction
* Anti-imperialism
* Anti-revisionism
* Capitalist roader
* Comprador
* Continuous revolution theory
* Cultural Revolution
* Four Olds
* Marxism–Leninism
* Mass line
* Newborn socialist things
* New Democracy
* One Divides into Two
* People's war
* Probable defeat
* Proletarian nation
* Revolutionary base area
* Seek truth from facts
* Self-criticism
* Social imperialism
* Three Worlds Theory

Variants

* Maoism–Third Worldism
* Mao-spontex
* Marxism–Leninism–Maoism
* Gonzalo Thought
* Prachanda Path
* Deng Xiaoping Theory
* Naxalism

People

* Mao Zedong
* Faiz Ahmad
* Salim Rubaya Ali
* Louis Althusser
* Samir Amin
* Bob Avakian
* Alain Badiou
* Mohan Baidya
* Afzal Bangash
* Charles Bettelheim
* Biplav
* Bo Xilai
* Chen Boda
* Chin Peng
* Pushpa Kamal Dahal
* Saroj Dutta
* Norm Gallagher
* Abimael Guzmán
* Harry Haywood
* Ted Hill
* George Jackson
* İbrahim Kaypakkaya
* Jiang Qing
* Kang Sheng
* Li Minqi
* Lin Biao
* Charu Majumdar
* Pierre Mulele
* Huey P. Newton
* Nie Yuanzi
* Qi Benyu
* Muppala Lakshmana Rao
* Narayan Sanyal
* Siraj Sikder
* Jose Maria Sison
* Wang Hongwen
* Yao Wenyuan
* Akram Yari
* Zhang Chunqiao

Theoretical works

* Report on an Investigation of the Peasant
Movement in Hunan (1927)
* On Contradiction (1937)
* On Practice (1937)
* On Guerrilla Warfare (1937)
* On Protracted War (1938)
* On the Ten Major Relationships (1956)
* On the Correct Handling of Contradictions
Among the People (1957)
* A Critique of Soviet Economics (1960)
* Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-tung (1964)
* Historic Eight Documents (1965—1966)
* Bombard the Headquarters (1966)
* Settlers: The Mythology of the White Proletariat (1983)

History

* Chinese Soviet Republic
* Jiangxi Soviet
* Long March
* Chinese Communist Revolution
* People's Republic of China
* 1949–1976
* 1976–1989
* 1989–2002
* 2002–present
* Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries
* Korean War
* Sino-Soviet split
* Great Leap Forward
* Black Power movement
* Cultural Revolution
* 16 May Notification
* Red August
* January Storm
* Down to the Countryside Movement
* New Communist movement
* Cambodian Civil War
* Naxalite–Maoist insurgency
* Naxalbari uprising
* New People's Army rebellion
* Sino-Albanian split
* Maoist insurgency in Turkey
* Death and funeral of Mao
* Cambodian–Vietnamese War
* Two Whatevers
* Internal conflict in Peru
* Nepalese Civil War
* Chongqing model

Organizations

* Chinese Communist Party
* Shining Path
* National Democratic Front of the Philippines
* Communist Party of the Philippines
* New People's Army
* Communist Party of Turkey/Marxist–Leninist
* Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre)
* Communist Party of India (Maoist)
* Purba Banglar Sarbahara Party
* Communist Party of Burma
* Communist Party of Ecuador – Red Sun
* Serve the People
* Black Panther Party
* Revolutionary Internationalist Movement
* Communist (Maoist) Party of Afghanistan
* Maoist Communist Party of China

Related topics

* Anarchism in China
* Big-character poster
* Feudal fascism
* Hoxhaism
* Guevarism
* Juche
* Left communism in China
* Mao's cult of personality
* Nanjie
* National Democracy Movement
* Naxalite
* Nazi-Maoism
* New Left
* Chinese
* Japanese
* Red Guards
* Red Star Over China
* Socialist ideology of the Kuomintang
* Thought reform in China

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* Communism portal
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Probable defeat (Chinese: 可能失败) is a theory of the development of socialism held by Mao Zedong, holding that it is more likely that revisionism will result in the restoration of capitalism than socialism actually develop into communism.

## Background

[edit]

Unlike most adherents of historical materialism, Mao did not see socialism even as a likely development arising out of the development of capitalism. Instead, Mao claimed that "[m]ost probably revisionism will win out, and we will be defeated."[1] The solution to this was to emphasize probable defeat, in order to keep the masses in a state of anxiety against capitalist elements.[2] Mao told André Malraux, for example, that "[v]ictory is the mother of many illusions," referring specifically to the outcome of socialism.[3]

Specifically arising after the De-Stalinization campaign pursued by Nikita Khrushchev, Mao pointed to what he saw as a full restoration of capitalism in the Soviet Union after the death of Joseph Stalin as evidence to how quickly socialism could be overthrown if the masses were not mobilized to fight against what Mao saw as the main root of potential capitalist restoration, the party itself. Instead of fearing the remnants of capitalist society most, Mao argued that under socialism the vanguard party could become parasitic and even declared the existence of a "bureaucratic class" that was working against the workers.[4] This was a key inspiration behind the Cultural Revolution launched in 1966, with the warning finding appeal in the youth of China at the time, particularly among the student Red Guards who launched criticisms of members of the Chinese Communist Party itself.[citation needed]

## References

[edit]

1. ^ Russo, Alessandro (2020). Cultural revolution and Revolutionary Culture. Durham London: Duke University Press. p. 93\. ISBN 9781478012184.
2. ^ Russo, Alessandro (2020). Cultural revolution and Revolutionary Culture. Durham London: Duke University Press. p. 142\. ISBN 9781478012184.
3. ^ Russo, Alessandro (1 February 1998). "The Probable Defeat: Preliminary Notes on the Chinese Cultural Revolution". Positions: Asia Critique. 6 (1): 179–202\. doi:10.1215/10679847-6-1-179. S2CID 145392666. Retrieved 8 December 2023.
4. ^ Meisner, Maurice J. (1999). Mao's China and After: A History of the People's Republic (3 ed.). New York, NY: Free Press. p. 306\. ISBN 9780684856353.

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Maoism

Concepts|

* Agrarian socialism
* Antagonistic contradiction
* Anti-imperialism
* Anti-revisionism
* Capitalist roader
* Comprador
* Continuous Revolution Theory
* Cultural Revolution
* Four Olds
* Marxism–Leninism
* Mass line
* Newborn socialist things
* New Democracy
* One Divides into Two
* People's war
* Probable defeat
* Proletarian nation
* Revolutionary base area
* Seek truth from facts
* Self-criticism
* Social imperialism
* Three Worlds Theory

Variants|

* Maoism–Third Worldism
* Mao-spontex
* Marxism–Leninism–Maoism
* Gonzalo Thought
* Prachanda Path

People|

* Mao Zedong
* Faiz Ahmad
* Louis Althusser
* Samir Amin
* Bob Avakian
* Alain Badiou
* Mohan Baidya
* Afzal Bangash
* Charles Bettelheim
* Biplav
* Bo Xilai
* Chen Boda
* Chin Peng
* Pushpa Kamal Dahal
* Saroj Dutta
* Norm Gallagher
* Abimael Guzmán
* Harry Haywood
* Ted Hill
* İbrahim Kaypakkaya
* Jiang Qing
* Kang Sheng
* Li Minqi
* Lin Biao
* Charu Majumdar
* Pierre Mulele
* Huey P. Newton
* Nie Yuanzi
* Qi Benyu
* Muppala Lakshmana Rao
* Narayan Sanyal
* Siraj Sikder
* Jose Maria Sison
* Wang Hongwen
* Yao Wenyuan
* Akram Yari
* Zhang Chunqiao
* Salmin

Theoretical
works|

* Report on an Investigation of the Peasant Movement in Hunan (1927)
* On Contradiction (1937)
* On Practice (1937)
* On Guerrilla Warfare (1937)
* On Protracted War (1938)
* On the Ten Major Relationships (1956)
* On the Correct Handling of Contradictions Among the People (1957)
* A Critique of Soviet Economics (1960)
* Quotations from Chairman Mao Tse-tung (1964)
* Historic Eight Documents (1965–1966)
* Bombard the Headquarters (1966)
* Settlers: The Mythology of the White Proletariat (1983)

History|

* Chinese Soviet Republic
* Jiangxi Soviet
* Long March
* Chinese Communist Revolution
* People's Republic of China
* 1949–1976
* 1976–1989
* 1989–2002
* 2002–present
* Campaign to Suppress Counterrevolutionaries
* Korean War
* Sino-Soviet split
* Great Leap Forward
* Black power movement
* Cultural Revolution
* 16 May Notification
* Red August
* January Storm
* Down to the Countryside Movement
* New Communist movement
* Cambodian Civil War
* Naxalite–Maoist insurgency
* Naxalbari uprising
* New People's Army rebellion
* Sino-Albanian split
* Maoist insurgency in Turkey
* Death and funeral of Mao
* Cambodian–Vietnamese War
* Two Whatevers
* Peruvian Revolution
* Nepalese Civil War
* Chongqing model

Organizations|

* Chinese Communist Party
* Communist Party of Peru – Shining Path
* National Democratic Front of the Philippines
* Communist Party of the Philippines
* New People's Army
* Communist Party of Turkey/Marxist–Leninist
* Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre)
* Communist Party of India (Maoist)
* Proletarian Party of East Bengal
* Communist Party of Burma
* Communist Party of Ecuador – Red Sun
* Serve the People – Communist League
* Black Panther Party
* Revolutionary Internationalist Movement
* Communist (Maoist) Party of Afghanistan

Related
topics|

* Anarchism in China
* Big-character poster
* Feudal fascism
* Hoxhaism
* Guevarism
* Juche
* Left communism in China
* Mao's cult of personality
* Nanjie
* National communism
* National Democracy Movement
* Naxalism
* Nazi-Maoism
* New Left
* Chinese
* Japanese
* Red Guards
* Red Star Over China
* Socialist ideology of the Kuomintang
* Thought reform in China

* China portal
* Communism portal
* Socialism portal
* Politics portal

* v
* t
* e

Cultural Revolution

Prelude|

* Anti-Rightist Campaign
* Great Chinese Famine
* Great Leap Forward
* Lushan Conference
* Seven Thousand Cadres Conference
* Socialist Education Movement
* Fengqiao experience
* Taoyuan Experience

Major events|

* Down to the Countryside Movement
* Cleansing the Class Ranks
* 12-3 incident
* January Storm
* February Countercurrent
* Great Exchange of Revolutionary Experience
* Wuhan incident
* Smashing gong-jian-fa
* 9th Party Congress
* One Strike-Three Anti Campaign
* Abolition of the presidency in China
* Project 571
* Lin Biao incident
* 10th Party Congress
* Black Painting incident
* Criticize Lin, Criticize Confucius
* Snail Incident
* Hangzhou incident
* 1975 Banqiao Dam failure
* Counterattack the Right-Deviationist Reversal-of-Verdicts Trend
* 1976 Nanjing incident
* 1976 Tiananmen Incident
* Smashing the Gang of Four

Massacres|

* Red August
* Daxing Massacre
* Guangxi Massacre
* Inner Mongolia incident
* Guangdong Massacre
* Yangjiang Massacre
* Hunan Massacres
* Daoxian massacre
* Shaoyang County Massacre
* Yunnan Massacres
* Zhao Jianmin spy case
* Shadian incident
* Ruijin Massacre
* Qinghai 223 Incident

Key figures|

* Mao Zedong
* Liu Shaoqi
* Zhou Enlai
* Lin Biao
* Deng Xiaoping
* Gang of Four (Jiang Qing
* Zhang Chunqiao
* Yao Wenyuan
* Wang Hongwen)
* Peng Dehuai
* Wu Han
* Peng Zhen
* Tao Zhu
* Chen Boda
* Wang Dongxing
* Xie Fuzhi
* Ji Dengkui
* Wang Li
* Qi Benyu
* Wu Faxian
* Qiu Huizuo
* Yang Chengwu
* Chen Zaidao
* Kang Sheng
* Mao Yuanxin
* Hua Guofeng
* Ye Jianying

Documents|

* 1970 Draft Constitution
* A List of Cadres to Be Protected
* Bombard the Headquarters
* Quotations from Chairman Mao
* Hai Rui Dismissed from Office
* May 16 Notification
* Six Articles of Public Security
* Sweep Away All Cow Demons and Snake Spirits
* On Class Origins
* "With you in charge, I'm at ease"

Concepts|

* Four Olds
* Newborn socialist things
* Struggle session
* Feudal fascism
* Big-character poster
* Cow demons and snake spirits
* Bloodline theory
* Continuous Revolution Theory
* Seizure of power
* Violent Struggle
* One Divides into Two
* Democracy Wall
* Eight model plays
* Loyalty dance
* Capitalist roader
* Yiku sitian
* Learn from Daqing in industry
* Learn from Dazhai in agriculture
* Stinking Old Ninth
* Five Black Categories
* Five Red Categories
* Two Newspapers and One Journal

Groups|

* Red Guards
* Conservative Faction
* Little Red Guards
* Rebel Faction
* Scarlet Guards
* Ultra-Left Faction
* Xiaoyao Faction
* May Sixteenth elements
* Five Man Group
* Cultural Revolution Group
* Central Case Examination Group
* Central Organization and Propaganda Leading Group
* Hunan Provincial Proletarian Revolutionary Great Alliance Committee
* Revolutionary committee
* in Beijing
* in Fujian
* in Heilongjiang
* in Shanghai
* 8341 Special Regiment
* Sent-down youth
* 61 Renegades
* Barefoot doctor
* Worker-Peasant-Soldier student
* May Seventh Cadre School
* Xiang River Storm and Thunder

Related topics|

* Maoism
* Mao Zedong's cult of personality
* Mango cult
* List of campaigns of the Chinese Communist Party
* Class struggle
* Sino-Soviet split
* Two Whatevers
* Morning Sun (film)
* Third Plenum of the 11th Central Committee
* Boluan Fanzheng
* New Enlightenment
* Scar literature
* Evaluation of the Cultural Revolution

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Marxist phraseology and terminology

Philosophy and politics
(Marxist)|

* Barracks communism
* Base and superstructure
* Bourgeoisie
* Bourgeois democracy
* Bourgeois nationalism
* Bourgeois revolution
* Bourgeois right
* Bourgeois socialism
* Capitalist mode of production
* Class struggle
* Commodification
* Dialectics
* Dictatorship of the proletariat
* Historical materialism
* Imperialism
* Liquidationism
* Lumpenproletariat
* Means of labor
* Metabolic rift
* Petite bourgeoisie
* Primitive accumulation of capital
* Proletarian internationalism
* Proletarian revolution
* Pure communism
* Revisionism
* Revolutionary spontaneity
* Revolutionary wave
* Scientific socialism
* Socialist mode of production
* Super-imperialism
* Theoretician
* Two-stage theory
* Wage slavery
* Workers of the world, unite!
* Workers' council
* Workers' control
* World communism
* World revolution

Sociology and economics
(Marxian)|

* Critique of political economy
* Accumulation of capital
* Capital
* Capitalist mode of production
* Crisis of capitalism
* Commanding heights of the economy
* Commodity
* Commodity production
* Dominant ideology
* Exchange value
* Free association
* Law of value
* Materialism
* Means of production
* Mode of production
* Productive forces
* Production for use
* Relations of production
* Ruling class
* Simple commodity production
* Socialist mode of production
* Socially necessary labour time
* Socialization
* Social murder
* Subject of labor
* Surplus value
* Use value
* Value
* Worker cooperative

Marxist–Leninist|

* Anti-revisionism
* Cadre
* Central Committee
* Democratic centralism
* Dual power
* Enemy of the people
* Foco
* General line of the party
* National liberation
* New class
* People's democracy
* Politburo
* Political rehabilitation
* Popular front
* Real socialism
* Revisionism
* Revolutionary terror
* Secretariat
* Self-criticism
* Socialist accumulation
* Socialism in one country
* Social fascism
* Social imperialism
* Soviet democracy
* Democracy in Marxism
* United front
* Vanguardism

Trotskyist|

* Deformed workers' state
* Degenerated workers' state
* French Turn
* Permanent revolution
* Social revolution
* Transitional demand
* Uneven and combined development
* United front
* World revolution

Maoist|

* Antagonistic contradiction
* Anti-revisionism
* Capitalist roader
* Continuous revolution theory
* The East wind prevails over the West wind
* Four Olds
* Marxism–Leninism–Maoism
* Mass line
* New Democracy
* Whole-process people's democracy
* One Divides Into Two
* People's war
* Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun
* Revisionism
* Revolutionary base area
* Revolution is not a dinner party
* Social imperialism
* Struggle session

Other|

* People's Multiparty Democracy

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