Seven Days to the River Rhine

Soviet military simulation exercise

Training Exercise "Seven Days to the River Rhine"

Part of the Cold War

A 1976 map of probable axes of attack for the Warsaw Pact forces into Western Europe
| Date| at least since 1964

|

Location|

Central Europe, Iron Curtain

Result|  Unknown; never attempted.
Signing of the SALT II treaty.
If attempted, intended to be a Warsaw Pact victory but with heavy cost of lives
Territorial
changes|  German unification under East Germany
Occupation of Austria, Denmark, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands east of River Rhine to the Warsaw Pact (if attempted)
Belligerents

Warsaw Pact

* Soviet Union
* GSFG
* Soviet Army Central Group of Forces
* Soviet Army Northern Group of Forces
* Soviet Army Southern Group of Forces
* Bulgaria
* Czechoslovakia
* East Germany
* Hungary
* Poland

Communist Parties in prospective Soviet Satellites:

* KPÖ
* KPB/PCB
* DKP
* KPL
* CPN

Communist Parties in prospective Soviet Satellites
(9-day extended plan to Lyon):

* PCF

NATO

* United States
* United Kingdom
* France
* Belgium
* Canada
* Denmark
* West Germany
* Italy
* Luxembourg
* Netherlands
* Norway
* Turkey

Austria
Commanders and leaders
Leonid Brezhnev
Dmitriy Ustinov
Nikolai Ogarkov
Col. Gen. Yuri Zarudin (ru)
Gen. Yevgeni F. Ivanovski
Todor Zhivkov
Dobri Dzhurov
Gustáv Husák
Martin Dzúr
Erich Honecker
Heinz Hoffmann
János Kádár
Lajos Czinege
Edward Gierek
Wojciech Jaruzelski

* * *

Franz Muhri (de)
Louis Van Geyt
Jørgen Jensen
Marcus Bakker

* * *

Georges Marchais|  Jimmy Carter
Harold Brown
David C. Jones

SACEUR:

* Gen. Alexander Haig
(Jan-Jul 1979)
* Gen. B. W. Rogers
(Jul 1979-1987)

James Callaghan
(Jan-May 1979)
Margaret Thatcher
(May 1979-1990)
Valery Giscard d'Estaing
Yvon Bourges
Paul Vanden Boeynants
(Jan-Apr 1979)
Wilfried Martens
(Apr 1979-1981)
José Desmarets
Pierre Trudeau
(Jan-Jun 1979)
Joe Clark
(Jun 1979-1980)
Anker Jørgensen
Poul Søgaard
Helmut Schmidt
Hans Apel
Giulio Andreotti
(Jan-Aug 1979)
Francesco Cossiga
(Aug 1979-1980)
Attilio Ruffini
Gaston Thorn
(Jan-Jul 1979)
Pierre Werner
(Jul 1979-1984)
Émile Krieps
Dries van Agt
Willem Scholten
Odvar Nordli
Bülent Ecevit
(Jan-Nov 1979)
Süleyman Demirel
(Nov 1979-1980)
Bruno Kreisky
Otto Rösch
Casualties and losses
Would be carried out in response to a NATO first strike on Poland. Such a strike was estimated to cause 2 million immediate Polish deaths near the Vistula|  If carried out, heavy losses in West Germany
The Rhine is one of the most important rivers in Europe.

Seven Days to the River Rhine (Russian: «Семь дней до реки Рейн», romanized: "Sem' dney do reki Reyn") was a top-secret military simulation exercise developed at least since 1964 by the Warsaw Pact. It depicted the Soviet Bloc's vision of a seven-day nuclear war between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces.[1][2][3]

## Declassification[edit]

This possible World War III scenario was released by Polish Defense Minister Radosław Sikorski following the Law and Justice Party's victories in the 2005 Polish elections along with thousands of Warsaw Pact documents, in order to "draw a line under [the original Polish verb "odciąć" could also be translated as "make a break from"] the country's Communist past", and "educate the Polish public about the old regime."[2][4][3] Sikorski stated that documents associated with the former regime would be declassified and published through the Institute of National Remembrance in the coming year.[2][4]

The files released included documents about "Operation Danube", the 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia in response to the Prague Spring.[2][3] They also included files on the 1970 Polish protests, and from the martial law era of the 1980s.[2][4][3]

The Czech Republic[5] and Hungary[6] had declassified related documents in the 1990s. The Polish government declassified some material in this period.[7][8]

## Battle outline[edit]

The scenario for the war was NATO launching a nuclear attack on Polish and Czechoslovak cities in the Vistula river valley area in a first-strike scenario, which would prevent Warsaw Pact commanders from sending reinforcements to East Germany to forestall a possible NATO invasion of that country.[2][4][3] The plan expected that as many as two million Polish civilians would die in such a war and Polish operational strength would be completely destroyed.[2][4][3]

A Soviet nuclear counter-strike would be launched against West Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and North-East Italy.[2][3]

## Nuclear response[edit]

Maps associated with the released plan show nuclear strikes in many NATO states, but exclude both France and the United Kingdom. There are several possibilities for this lack of strikes, the most probable being that both France and the United Kingdom are nuclear weapons states, and as such retain nuclear arsenals that could be employed in retaliation for nuclear strikes against their nations.[2][3][9][5]

The French Force de dissuasion employed a nuclear strategy known as dissuasion du faible au fort (weak-to-strong deterrence); this is considered a "counter-value" strategy, which implies that a nuclear attack on France would be responded to by a strike on Soviet-bloc cities.[2][3]

The Guardian, however, speculates that "France would have escaped attack, possibly because it is not a member of NATO's integrated structure. Britain, which has always been at the heart of NATO, would also have been spared, suggesting Moscow wanted to stop at the Rhine to avoid overstretching its forces."[2][3]

In 1966, President Charles de Gaulle withdrew France from NATO's integrated military command structure. In practical terms, while France remained a NATO member and fully participated in the political instances of the Organization, it was no longer represented on certain committees like the Nuclear Planning Group and the Defence Planning Committee. Foreign forces were removed from French territory and French forces temporarily withdrawn from NATO commands.[10] The 1st French Army, with its headquarters at Strasbourg, on the Franco-German border, was the main field headquarters controlling operations in support of NATO in West Germany, as well as defending France. Although France was not officially part of NATO's command structure, there was an understanding, formalised by regular joint exercises in West Germany, that France would go to the aid of NATO, should the Warsaw Pact attack. To that end, the Headquarters and two divisions of II (Fr) Corps were permanently stationed in West Germany, with the wartime mission of supporting NATO's US-led Central Army Group (CENTAG).[11]

There are many high-value targets in Britain (like RAF Fylingdales, RAF Mildenhall, and RAF Lakenheath) that would then have to be struck in a conventional manner in this plan, though a nuclear strike would be far more effective (and, as the plans show, a preferable option for the Soviet leadership as shown by their strikes in Western Europe). The plan also indicates that USAF fighter-bombers, primarily the long-ranged F-111 Aardvark, would be employed in nuclear strikes, and that they would launch from those British bases.[2][3]

The Soviets planned to use about 7.5 megatons of atomic weaponry in all during such a conflict.[6]

### Known targets[edit]

The Austrian capital Vienna was to be hit by two 500-kiloton bombs.[6] In Italy, Vicenza, Verona, Padua, and several military bases were to be hit by single 500-kiloton bombs.[6] The Hungarian People's Army was to capture Vienna.[5]

Stuttgart, Munich, and Nuremberg in West Germany were to be destroyed by nuclear weapons and then captured by the Czechoslovaks and Hungarians.[5]

In Denmark, the first nuclear targets were Roskilde and Esbjerg. Roskilde, while having no military significance, is the second-largest city on Zealand and located close to the Danish capital Copenhagen (the distance from central Copenhagen to Roskilde is only 35 km or 22 mi). It would also be targeted for its cultural and historical significance to break the morale of the Danish population and army. Esbjerg, the fifth-largest city in the country, would be targeted for its large harbour capable of facilitating delivery of large NATO reinforcements. If there was Danish resistance after the two initial strikes, other targets would be bombed.[12]

## Additional plans[edit]

The Soviet Union planned to have reached Lyon by day nine and to press on to a final position at the Pyrenees.[5] Czechoslovakia thought it to be too optimistic at the time, and some present-day Western planners believe that such a goal was unrealistic or even unattainable.[5]

## In popular culture[edit]

In Jack Ryan, the Seven Days to the River Rhine is featured prominently in the third season. In the film Octopussy, Soviet General Orlov briefs the Central Committee on an amended scenario "lead(ing) to total victory in 5 days against any possible defense scenario."

## See also[edit]

* Operation Unthinkable
* Fulda Gap
* Square Leg (UK operation)
* World War III
* National Redoubt (Switzerland)
* Foundations of Geopolitics

## References[edit]

1. ^ Findlay, Christopher (28 November 2005). "Poland reveals Warsaw Pact war plans". International Relations And Security Network. ETH Zurich. Archived from the original on 9 July 2021. Retrieved 23 December 2014.
2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Watt, Nicholas (26 November 2005). "Poland risks Russia's wrath with Soviet nuclear attack map". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 29 April 2020. Retrieved 14 June 2013.
3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Rennie, David (26 November 2005). "World War Three seen through Soviet eyes". Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2 November 2019. Retrieved 14 June 2013.
4. ^ a b c d e "Poland Opens Secret Warsaw Pact Files". Rferl.org. 25 November 2005. Archived from the original on 9 June 2016. Retrieved 14 June 2013.
5. ^ a b c d e f Samuel, Henry (20 September 2007). "Soviet plan for WW3 nuclear attack unearthed". Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 1 February 2020. Retrieved 14 June 2013.
6. ^ a b c d Tweedie, Neil (1 December 2001). "Vienna was top of Soviet nuclear targets list". Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2 November 2019. Retrieved 14 June 2013.
7. ^ "Warsaw Pact War Plans". GlobalSecurity.org. Archived from the original on 31 December 2019. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
8. ^ Lunak, Petr (2001). "Reassessing the Cold War alliances". NATO Review. Archived from the original on 24 August 2018. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
9. ^ "Moscow's blueprint resembles thriller's plot". Daily Telegraph. 26 November 2005. Archived from the original on 10 July 2019. Retrieved 2 April 2018.
10. ^ "NATO left Paris, but France did not leave NATO". Archived from the original on 31 December 2019. Retrieved 30 December 2019.
11. ^ Davies, R Mark. "French Orders of Battle & TO&Es 1980–1989 v2.2" (PDF). FireAndFury.com. Archived (PDF) from the original on 29 April 2020. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
12. ^ Niels Lillelund; Jette Elbæk Maressa (18 January 2003). "Atomplaner mod Danmark under Den Kolde Krig" [Nuclear plans against Denmark during the Cold War] (in Danish). Jyllands Posten. Archived from the original on 22 July 2019. Retrieved 18 July 2019.

General

* "World War Three seen through Soviet eyes", David Rennie, Daily Telegraph, November 26, 2005. Retrieved May 19, 2006
* "Poland Opens Secret Warsaw Pact Files ", Radio Free Europe, 2005, Retrieved March 16, 2009
* "Soviet Nuclear Weapons in Hungary 1961-1991"

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1950s|

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1960s|

* Congo Crisis
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* Communist insurgency in Sarawak
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* North Yemen Civil War
* 1963 Syrian coup d'état
* Assassination of John F. Kennedy
* Aden Emergency
* Cyprus crisis of 1963–1964
* Shifta War
* Mexican Dirty War
* Tlatelolco massacre
* Guatemalan Civil War
* Colombian conflict
* 1964 Brazilian coup d'état
* Dominican Civil War
* Rhodesian Bush War
* Indonesian mass killings of 1965–1966
* Transition to the New Order (Indonesia)
* ASEAN Declaration
* 1966 Syrian coup d'état
* Cultural Revolution
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* 12-3 incident
* Greek junta
* 1967 Hong Kong riots
* Years of Lead (Italy)
* Six-Day War
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* Dhofar War
* Al-Wadiah War
* Nigerian Civil War
* Protests of 1968
* May 68
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* 1968 Polish political crisis
* Communist insurgency in Malaysia
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* 17 July Revolution
* 1968 Peruvian coup d'état
* Revolutionary Government
* 1969 Sudanese coup d'état
* 1969 Libyan revolution
* Goulash Communism
* Sino-Soviet border conflict
* New People's Army rebellion

1970s|

* Détente
* Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
* Black September
* Alcora Exercise
* Corrective Movement (Syria)
* Western Sahara conflict
* Cambodian Civil War
* Communist insurgency in Thailand
* 1970 Polish protests
* Koza riot
* Realpolitik
* Ping-pong diplomacy
* 1971 JVP insurrection
* Corrective Revolution (Egypt)
* 1971 Turkish military memorandum
* 1971 Sudanese coup d'état
* Four Power Agreement on Berlin
* Bangladesh Liberation War
* 1972 visit by Richard Nixon to China
* North Yemen-South Yemen Border conflict of 1972
* Yemenite War of 1972
* Munich massacre
* 1972–1975 Bangladesh insurgency
* Eritrean Civil Wars
* 1973 Uruguayan coup d'état
* 1973 Afghan coup d'état
* 1973 Chilean coup d'état
* Yom Kippur War
* 1973 oil crisis
* Carnation Revolution
* Spanish transition to democracy
* Metapolitefsi
* Strategic Arms Limitation Talks
* Second Iraqi–Kurdish War
* Turkish invasion of Cyprus
* Angolan Civil War
* Cambodian genocide
* June 1976 protests
* Mozambican Civil War
* Oromo conflict
* Ogaden War
* 1978 Somali coup attempt
* Western Sahara War
* Ethiopian Civil War
* Lebanese Civil War
* Albanian–Chinese split
* Third Indochina War
* Cambodian–Vietnamese War
* Operation Condor
* Dirty War (Argentina)
* 1976 Argentine coup d'état
* Egyptian–Libyan War
* German Autumn
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* Nicaraguan Revolution
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* NDF Rebellion
* Chadian–Libyan War
* Yemenite War of 1979
* Grand Mosque seizure
* Iranian Revolution
* Saur Revolution
* Sino-Vietnamese War
* New Jewel Movement
* 1979 Herat uprising
* Seven Days to the River Rhine
* Struggle against political abuse of psychiatry in the Soviet Union

1980s|

* Salvadoran Civil War
* Soviet–Afghan War
* 1980 and 1984 Summer Olympics boycotts
* Gera Demands
* Peruvian Revolution
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* Solidarity
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* Toyota War
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* 1987–1989 JVP insurrection
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* 1988 Black Sea bumping incident
* 8888 Uprising
* Solidarity (Soviet reaction)
* Contras
* Central American crisis
* Operation RYAN
* Korean Air Lines Flight 007
* People Power Revolution
* Glasnost
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* Bougainville conflict
* First Nagorno-Karabakh War
* Afghan Civil War
* United States invasion of Panama
* 1988 Polish strikes
* Polish Round Table Agreement
* 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre
* Revolutions of 1989
* Fall of the Berlin Wall
* Fall of the inner German border
* Velvet Revolution
* Romanian Revolution
* Peaceful Revolution

1990s|

* Mongolian Revolution of 1990
* Min Ping Yu No. 5540 incident
* Gulf War
* Min Ping Yu No. 5202
* German reunification
* Yemeni unification
* Fall of communism in Albania
* Breakup of Yugoslavia
* Dissolution of the Soviet Union
* 1991 August Coup
* Dissolution of Czechoslovakia

Frozen conflicts|

* Abkhazia
* China-Taiwan
* Korea
* Kosovo
* South Ossetia
* Transnistria
* Sino-Indian border dispute
* North Borneo dispute

Foreign policy|

* Truman Doctrine
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* Domino theory
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* Peaceful coexistence
* Ostpolitik
* Johnson Doctrine
* Brezhnev Doctrine
* Nixon Doctrine
* Ulbricht Doctrine
* Carter Doctrine
* Reagan Doctrine
* Rollback
* Kinmen Agreement

Ideologies|

| Capitalism|

* Liberalism
* Chicago school
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* American conservatism
* Keynesianism
* Libertarianism
* Monetarism
* Neoclassical economics
* Reaganomics
* Supply-side economics
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|

Socialism|

* Communism
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Other|

* Imperialism
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* Third-Worldism
* White supremacy
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* Apartheid

Organizations|

* NATO
* SEATO
* METO
* EEC
* Warsaw Pact
* Comecon
* Non-Aligned Movement
* NN States
* ASEAN
* SAARC
* Safari Club

Propaganda|

| Pro-communist|

* Active measures
* Izvestia
* Neues Deutschland
* Pravda
* Rudé právo
* Trybuna Ludu
* TASS
* Soviet Life

|

Pro-Western|

* Amerika
* Crusade for Freedom
* Paix et Liberté
* Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
* Radio Free Asia
* Red Scare
* Voice of America

Technological
competition|

* Arms race
* Nuclear arms race
* Space Race

Historians|

* Gar Alperovitz
* Thomas A. Bailey
* Michael Beschloss
* Archie Brown
* Warren H. Carroll
* Adrian Cioroianu
* John Costello
* Michael Cox
* Nicholas J. Cull
* Norman Davies
* Willem Drees
* Robert D. English
* Herbert Feis
* Robert Hugh Ferrell
* André Fontaine
* Anneli Ute Gabanyi
* John Lewis Gaddis
* Lloyd Gardner
* Timothy Garton Ash
* Gabriel Gorodetsky
* Fred Halliday
* Jussi Hanhimäki
* John Earl Haynes
* Patrick J. Hearden
* Tvrtko Jakovina
* Tony Judt
* Harvey Klehr
* Gabriel Kolko
* Walter LaFeber
* Walter Laqueur
* Melvyn P. Leffler
* Geir Lundestad
* Vojtech Mastny
* Jack F. Matlock Jr.
* Thomas J. McCormick
* Timothy Naftali
* Marius Oprea
* David S. Painter
* William B. Pickett
* Ronald E. Powaski
* Yakov M. Rabkin
* Mary Elise Sarotte
* Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.
* Ellen Schrecker
* Giles Scott-Smith
* Shen Zhihua
* Timothy Snyder
* Athan Theoharis
* Andrew Thorpe
* Vladimir Tismăneanu
* Patrick Vaughan
* Alex von Tunzelmann
* Odd Arne Westad
* William Appleman Williams
* Jonathan Reed Winkler
* Rudolph Winnacker
* Ken Young

Espionage and
intelligence|

* List of Eastern Bloc agents in the United States
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* Russian espionage in the United States
* American espionage in the Soviet Union and Russian Federation
* CIA and the Cultural Cold War
* CIA
* MI5
* MI6
* United States involvement in regime change
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* MVD
* KGB
* Stasi

See also|

* Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War
* Soviet Union–United States relations
* Soviet Union–United States summits
* Russia–NATO relations
* War on terror
* Brinkmanship
* Second Cold War
* Russian Revolution

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