Tornado outbreak of March 14–15, 2025

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Tornado outbreak of March 14–15, 2025

The system responsible for the outbreak, seen centered over Kansas on March 14

Tornado outbreak
Tornadoes| 6+
Maximum rating| EF3+ tornado
Duration| March 13, 2025–present

* * *

Highest gusts| Non-tornadic – 95 mph (153 km/h) in the San Augustin Pass on March 14[1]
Winter storm
Maximum snowfall or ice accretion| 32 in (81 cm) near Bear Valley, California
Extratropical cyclone
Lowest pressure| 975 hPa (mbar); 28.79 inHg
Overall effects
Fatalities| 0 (+ 3 non-tornadic)
Injuries| >2
Damage| Unknown
Areas affected| Western United States
Power outages| >150,000

* * *

Part of the Tornadoes of 2025 and the 2024–25 North American winter

A significant tornado outbreak is currently underway over the Midwestern into the Southern United States on March 14 and 15, 2025,[2][3][4] with more severe weather possible on the East Coast on March 16.[5] The event is expected to bring hail, strong winds, and strong to potentially violent tornadoes.[6] A larger focus on the possibility of strong tornadoes is expected on the 15th over the Deep South in particular. On March 13, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a moderate risk for severe weather for portions of the Midwest and Southeast on March 14, followed by another moderate risk being issued for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle on March 15. At 17:30 UTC on March 14, the risk for March 15 was upgraded to a tornado-driven high risk for portions of Mississippi and Alabama,[7] making it the third ever issuance of a Day 2 high risk, with the previous two being for April 7, 2006 and April 14, 2012. Storms capable of producing strong to intense tornadoes are currently organizing.[8][9] A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch was issued late on March 14, and one tornado has prompted the issuance of a tornado emergency in Van Buren, Missouri.

## Meteorological synopsis

[edit]

Starting on March 7, 2025, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) began monitoring the threat of a large-scale trough ejection over the High Plains and Upper Midwest. As the threat was a full week out, large spread between models led to uncertainties as to upper-level and surface features, which prevented the SPC from having enough confidence to outline a risk area.[10] On March 9, a 15% severe risk was introduced on March 14 over the Mississippi Valley and on March 15 over the South,[11] which was upgraded to a 30% risk for both days starting on March 10, as multiple forecast models began coming into agreement for the threat of all hazards, including a supercell-focused mode potentially evolving into a QLCS threat.[12] An outlook on March 11 described the March 14 system as "anomalously intense upper cyclone", with a second upper-level trough expected to produce severe weather on March 15.[13]

On March 13, the SPC upgraded the risk for March 14 into a moderate (4/5) risk over parts of the Middle Mississippi valley, including much Illinois and Missouri, alongside small parts of Iowa, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee. This risk was described as a "regional outbreak of severe storms", driven by the risk of storms producing swaths of damaging winds potentially in excess of 65 kn (75 mph; 120 km/h) over the region, with areas further south expected to be conducive to the development of strong tornadoes later in the day.[14] The outlook for March 15 was also upgraded to a moderate (4/5) risk, as an environment more conducive for significant tornadoes, as favorable wind profiles, alongside moderate instability, would produce the conditions necessary for "robust updrafts and intense supercells". A conditional risk was also highlighted further north into Ohio and Kentucky, which were expected to face a primarily non-severe event, reliant on the intensity of convection further south that could stabilize the atmosphere.[15]

### March 14

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#### Forecast

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The SPC Day 1 convective outlook for March 14, 2025 at 20z, showing the widespread risk of severe weather across the Mississippi Valley and Southeastern United States.

The states of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee Arkansas and Mississippi were under a moderate risk for severe weather, as a strong negatively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough detected on satellite that morning was expected to produce an intense mid-level jet that would follow its parent shortwave and move towards the center of the continental United States. These features would produce strong ascent, which, alongside a powerful surface cyclone expected to form and move from the central High Plains towards the Upper Midwest, would produce the conditions necessary for the development of significant severe weather. Over much of the middle Mississippi Valley, strong diurnal heating was expected to occur, which, alongside a low-level jet to aid boundary-level moisture, would allow for the development of surface-based storms, which were expected to produce a single fast-moving band of convection that was expected to produce gusts up to 80–100 mph (130–160 km/h) over the region.[16]

Further to the southeast over Missouri, forecasters outlined the risk of more discrete thunderstorms developing on the northern edge of a more concentrated area of low-level moisture. These storms were expected to form into at least semi-discrete supercells due to the presence of strong upper-level flow and strong deep-layer shear. The HRRR model suggested that widespread supercells could develop late in the afternoon, potentially as far south as the border of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee, with soundings of other forecast models, including the NAM model, favoring the development of intense supercells capable of producing large hail of 2–3 in (5.1–7.6 cm) and potentially significant or intense tornadoes.[16]

Throughout the lower Mississippi Valley, lesser forcing was expected to preclude any possibility of widespread severe weather, but forecasters noted that the atmosphere would be capable of producing supercells, some of which would have the hazard for large hail, damaging winds, or tornadoes, for any supercells that sustain themselves.[16]

#### Development of storms

[edit]

A storm-centric loop of a powerful supercell in the St Louis, Missouri, Metropolitan area

The first complex of storms had emerged by 10:25 a.m. Central Daylight Time (UTC–5) over southern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma, which would move into a region of high atmospheric stability and strong convective inhibition, with a minimal severe hazard risk expected to be limited to small hail up to 1.25 in (3.2 cm).[17] The Storm Prediction Center was expecting the formation of an intense squall line to initiate between 3 and 5 p.m. that afternoon.[18]

In the evening, a PDS tornado watch was issued for an area in the Mississippi Valley, with severe thunderstorms expected to develop in conditions primed for supercells capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes.[19] As forecast, numerous supercells began developing across the main risk area, and began producing tornadoes, some of which have presumably been strong to intense. A PDS tornado warning was issued for an area around Bakersfield, Missouri as a large tornado was confirmed. Additional tornadoes struck in or around the cities of Rolla, Hartville, and Union, with storms moving towards the St. Louis metropolitan area. Additionally, the first tornado emergency of the year has been issued for Carter County, Missouri, as a massive, possibly intense tornado is in progress close to the town of Van Buren. [citation needed]

### March 15

[edit]

The Storm Prediction Center Day 2 convective outlook issued March 14, 2025 at 1730Z, indicating a high risk for severe weather across parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

At the 1730Z Day 2 outlook on March 14, a high (5/5) risk, driven by the risk of a tornado outbreak, was introduced over parts of Mississippi and Alabama.[20] This has been the third time that the Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk for its Day 2 outlook, the other two occurring on April 7, 2006 and April 14, 2012.[21]

## Confirmed tornadoes

[edit]

Confirmed tornadoes by Enhanced Fujita rating EFU  | EF0  | EF1  | EF2  | EF3  | EF4  | EF5  | Total

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0  | 1  | 0  | 1  | 2  | 0  | 0  | 6+

### March 13 event

[edit]

List of confirmed tornadoes – Thursday, March 13, 2025[a] EF# | Location  | County / Parish  | State  | Start Coord.  | Time (UTC)  | Path length  | Max width

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EF0  | Pico Rivera to northwestern Whittier | Los Angeles | CA | 33°59′41″N 118°05′01″W﻿ / ﻿33.9948°N 118.0837°W﻿ / 33.9948; -118.0837﻿ (Pico Rivera (Mar. 13, EF0)) | 10:15–10:16  | 1 mi (1.6 km)  | 80 yd (73 m)
A high-end EF0 tornado uprooted a few trees, downed numerous large tree branches, and damaged roofs. In some cases, trees fell on residences and vehicles causing additional damage.[22]

### March 14 event

[edit]

List of confirmed tornadoes – Friday, March 14, 2025[a] EF# | Location  | County / Parish  | State  | Start Coord.  | Time (UTC)  | Path length  | Max width

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EF?  | Southern Missouri  | Ozark, Howell, Oregon, Shannon, Carter, Reynolds, Iron | MO | [to be determined] | [to be determined] | [to be determined] | [to be determined]
A large long-track wedge tornado moved through Southern Missouri, having hit the communities of Bakersfield and South Fork. Power flashes, a large debris signature, and significant damage were observed by storm chasers. A PDS tornado warning was issued for the area, and later a tornado emergency as it moved through Van Buren and Fremont, causing "catastrophic" damage.[23]
EF?  | Greater St. Louis | Franklin, Jefferson | MO | [to be determined] | [to be determined] | [to be determined] | [to be determined]
A large, PDS-warned tornado caused significant damage to the south and west of the St. Louis metropolitan area.
EF?  | Northern Arkansas  | Izard, Fulton, Sharp | AR | [to be determined] | [to be determined] | [to be determined] | [to be determined]
A PDS-warned tornado moved through northern Arkansas, moving through communities like Cherokee Village and Franklin. Reports from the latter area describe buildings being swept clean off their foundations.

## Non-tornadic effects

[edit]

### Winter storm

[edit]

#### California

[edit]

Very heavy snow fell in the Sierra Nevada of California on March 12 and 13, with the highest snowfall being 32 inches (81 cm) at Bear Valley.[24] Multiple car crashes due to snow was recorded on Interstate 80. Heavy rain caused mudslides in Southern California, with six rescues being conducted in San Jacinto.[25]

### Fire weather and dust storm

[edit]

See also: 2025 Oklahoma wildfires

Widespread non-severe products, specifically wind advisories (dark beige), red flag warnings (magenta), and high wind warnings (bronze), were issued across the continental United States by the morning of March 14, 2025

An extremely critical risk for fire weather was issued over much of the Southern Plains, including much of western Texas, eastern New Mexico, and central Oklahoma, as the trough was expected to produce widespread sustained winds of 30–40 mph (48–64 km/h), including frequent gusts of 50–70 mph (80–113 km/h) and occasionally up to 80 mph (130 km/h), over an area of low relative humidity.[26] Leedey, Oklahoma was put under an evacuation notice due to a rapidly spreading wildfire.[27] At least two injuries occurred when an ambulance crashed in Oklahoma.[28] Students at Oklahoma State University were told to shelter in place due to a wildfire.[1] Fires were reported in 9 counties across Oklahoma, including Oklahoma County and much of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area.[29]

Three people were killed in car crashes near Amarillo, Texas as a dust storm hit the area. Over 100,000 power outages were reported in Texas and Oklahoma.[30]

## Impacts

[edit]

### Preparations

[edit]

The "Wearin' of the Green" parade in Baton Rouge, Louisiana was postponed due to the expected severe weather.[31]

Due to high non-thunderstorm winds, over 400 flights were cancelled at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport. 20% of flights at Lubbock Preston Smith International Airport were also cancelled.[32]

## See also

[edit]

* List of North American tornadoes and tornado outbreaks
* Weather of 2025
* List of Storm Prediction Center high risk days
* NOAA under the second presidency of Donald Trump

## Notes

[edit]

1. ^ a b All dates are based on the local time zone where the tornado touched down; however, all times are in Coordinated Universal Time for consistency.

## References

[edit]

1. ^ a b "Live Updates: Massive Storm Unleashes Fires, Flooding, Rare 'High' Tornado Threat". weather.com. March 14, 2025. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
2. ^ "Severe Weather Outbreak Likely, Including Tornadoes". The Weather Channel. Retrieved March 12, 2025.
3. ^ Yablonski, Steven (March 12, 2025). "Severe storms eye South on Wednesday ahead of weekend severe weather outbreak threatening over 25 states". FOX Weather. Retrieved March 12, 2025.
4. ^ Rice, Christopher Cann and Doyle. "California braces for massive storm; evacuation warnings, closures in LA". USA Today. Retrieved March 12, 2025.
5. ^ Gilbert, Mary (March 12, 2025). "Powerhouse storm moves into US, prompting evacuations in California ahead of its trek east". CNN. Retrieved March 12, 2025.
6. ^ Walker, Stephanie (March 13, 2025). "ALERT DAYS: Severe threat of tornadoes, hail, flooding across Alabama Friday and Saturday". WVTM. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
7. ^ Whitt, Kelly Kizer (March 14, 2025). "NOAA issues rare high risk for storms in the Southeast". earthsky.org. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
8. ^ "Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 170". www.spc.noaa.gov. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
9. ^ "Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 32". www.spc.noaa.gov. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
10. ^ Leitman, Elizabeth (March 7, 2025). "Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 7, 2025". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
11. ^ Leitman, Elizabeth (March 9, 2025). "Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 9, 2025". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 10, 2025.
12. ^ Leitman, Elizabeth (March 10, 2025). "Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 10, 2025". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 10, 2025.
13. ^ Leitman, Elizabeth (March 11, 2025). "Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 11, 2025". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 11, 2025.
14. ^ Leitman, Elizabeth (March 13, 2025). "Mar 13, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
15. ^ Leitman, Elizabeth (March 13, 2025). "Mar 13, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
16. ^ a b c Gleason; Squitieri (March 14, 2025). "Mar 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
17. ^ Kerr; Gleason (March 14, 2025). "Mesoscale Discussion 169". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
18. ^ Kerr; Gleason (March 14, 2025). "Mesoscale Discussion 170". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
19. ^ National Weather Service (March 14, 2025). Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 36 (Report).
20. ^ "Mar 14, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook". Storm Prediction Center. March 14, 2025. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
21. ^ @NWSSPC (March 14, 2025). "This is only the 3rd time since at least 2006 (when we can easily query our records), and likely only the 3rd time in SPC history based on available data, that a High Risk has been issued on Day 2. The 2 previous times were: 4/14/2012 4/7/2006" (Tweet). Retrieved March 14, 2025 - via Twitter.
22. ^ National Weather Service in Oxnard, California (March 13, 2025). NWS Damage Survey for 03/13/25 Tornado Event (Report). Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
23. ^ "PAH Tornado Warning #6". Iowa Environment Mesonet. National Weather Service Paducah, KY. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
24. ^ Graff, Amy (March 11, 2025). "Parts of Los Angeles Urged to Evacuate as 'Widespread' Rain and Snow Hit California". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
25. ^ Tsui, Mary Gilbert, Karina (March 13, 2025). "Powerful storm causes mudslides in California, threatens outbreak of tornadoes and wildfires across US this week". CNN. Retrieved March 13, 2025.`{{cite web}}`: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
26. ^ Moore (March 14, 2025). "Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook". Storm Prediction Center. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
27. ^ Greco, Jonathan (March 14, 2025). "Wildfire prompts evacuation notice in Leedey". KOCO. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
28. ^ Monahan, Lisa (March 14, 2025). "Dust storm causes crash, first responders injured". www.news9.com. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
29. ^ Greco, Jonathan (March 14, 2025). "Evacuation order issued for eastern Oklahoma County as fires rage". KOCO. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
30. ^ Sandoval, Edgar; Graff, Amy (March 14, 2025). "Wildfires Fueled by Dry Conditions Quickly Spread Across Texas and Oklahoma". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 14, 2025.
31. ^ Gremillion, Bria (March 12, 2025). "Wearin' of the Green Parade rescheduled due to severe weather threat". WAFB. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
32. ^ McCarthy, Daniel (March 14, 2025). "Over 400 Flight Cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth Airport Due to High Winds". Travel Market Report. Retrieved March 14, 2025.

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