Alaska State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Alaska Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | August 16, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
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A total of 10 seats out of the 20 seats in the Alaska State Senate were up for election in 2016. Alaska state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber.
Contents
Introduction[edit]
Elections for the Alaska State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 16, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Alaska State Senate:
| Alaska State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 6 | 6 | |
| Republican Party | 14 | 14 | |
| Total | 20 | 20 | |
Retired incumbents[edit]
Four incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Huggins |  Republican |
Senate District D |
| Bill Stoltze | Republican |
Senate District F |
| Johnny Ellis |  Democratic |
Senate District J |
| Lesil McGuire | Republican |
Senate District L |
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Alaska sees more incumbents facing primary challengers.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Alaska performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Alaska State Senate, there were six Democratic incumbents and 14 Republican incumbents. There were no incumbents challenged in the August 13 primary.
- In the House, there were 16 Democratic incumbents, 23 Republican incumbents, and one independent incumbent. Two state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 10 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Alaska can be found below.
Primary election[edit]
Two Republican state representatives—Lynn Gattis (R-HD7) and Craig Johnson (R-HD24)— were defeated in their bids for seats in the state Senate.
Rep. Gattis, first elected to the state House in 2012, was defeated by Wasilla City Council member David S. Wilson in the Republican primary by a 52-48 margin.
Natasha A. Von Imhof defeated Rep. Johnson, who has served in the House since 2006, and Jeff Landfield in the Republican primary with 48 percent of the vote. Von Imhof raised $150,000 before the primary election and outspent both of her opponents.[1] GOP spokesperson Suzanne Downing said that she was not surprised that Von Imhof defeated Johnson because of the money she raised. "She had a lot of money. She raised a lot money. He came in quite late. He had about 60 days to run his race. He didn’t raise a lot of money. He raised his own money. He paid for it himself."[2]
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
| 2016 Alaska Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| B | Luke Hopkins: 7,336 | John Coghill Jr.: 8,429 (I)  |
|
| D | No candidate | David S. Wilson |
|
| F | No candidate | Shelley Hughes: 12,284 |
Tim Hale: 4,750 (Ind.) |
| H | Bill Wielechowski: 6,125 (I) |
Kevin D. Kastner: 4,674 | |
| J | Tom Begich |
No candidate | |
| L | Forrest J. McDonald: 5,971 | Natasha A. Von Imhof: 7,645 |
Tom Johnson: 1,088 (Ind.) |
| N | No candidate | Catherine A. Giessel: 9,570 (I) |
Vince Beltrami: 8,772 (Ind.) |
| P | No candidate | Gary Stevens (I) |
|
| R | No candidate | Bert K. Stedman (I) |
|
| T | Donald C. Olson (I) |
No candidate | |
Notes:
| |||
Write-in candidate[edit]
- Carrie Harris (Independent), District P
Primary election[edit]
| 2016 Alaska Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| B | Luke Hopkins |
John Coghill Jr. (I) |
|
| D | No candidate | Lynn Gattis: 1,628 David S. Wilson: 1,748 |
|
| F | Samantha I. Laudert-Rodgers |
Adam Crum: 1,885 Shelley Hughes: 2,186 Steve St. Clair: 475 |
|
| H | Bill Wielechowski (I) |
Kevin D. Kastner |
|
| J | Tom Begich: 1,629 Ed Wesley: 979 |
No candidate | |
| L | Roselynn Cacy: 537 Forrest J. McDonald: 930 |
Craig Johnson: 1,066 Jeff Landfield: 794 Natasha A. Von Imhof: 1,671 |
|
| N | No candidate | Catherine A. Giessel (I) |
|
| P | No candidate | Gary Stevens (I) |
|
| R | No candidate | Bert K. Stedman (I) |
|
| T | Donald C. Olson (I) |
No candidate | |
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Alaska State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 10 races in the Alaska State Senate in 2016, five were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 16.1 percent. Across all contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Republican candidates in the Alaska State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won seven races. In the four races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 16.7 percent. Democrats won three races in 2016. In the one race where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 13.4 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Two of the five contested races in 2016—40 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. One race saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Republicans won both races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Alaska State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District B R 6.9 percent District N R 4.4 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Alaska Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. All six incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the three winning Alaska Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 8.2 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Alaska Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Two Democratic incumbents won reelection. In the one race where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 13.4 percent. Four Republican incumbents won reelection. In the two races where winning Republican incumbents faced challengers, the average margin of victory was 5.6 percent. |
Alaska State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 3 13.4 percent 2 13.4 percent 1 2 66.7 percent Republican 7 16.7 percent 4 5.6 percent 2 3 42.9 percent Total 10 16.1 percent 6 8.2 percent 3 5 50.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Alaska Senate districts in 2016.
| Alaska State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District B | R | 6.9 percent |
| District D | R | Unopposed |
| District F | R | 44.2 percent |
| District H | D | 13.4 percent |
| District J | D | Unopposed |
| District L | R | 11.4 percent |
| District N | R | 4.4 percent |
| District P | R | Unopposed |
| District R | R | Unopposed |
| District T | D | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Alaska elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Alaska in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | Statewide municipal elections 105-day report due | |
| February 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Year start report due | |
| March 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day report due | |
| March 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day report due | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline | |
| July 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | 105-day report due | |
| August 16, 2016 | Ballot access | Nominating petitions due | |
| August 16, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 6, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day report due | |
| September 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Sources: Alaska Division of Elections, "2016-2017 Election Dates," accessed November 25, 2015 Alaska Division of Elections, "No-party Candidate Filing Instructions," accessed November 25, 2015 Alaska Public Offices Commission, "APOC Annual Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]
In 6 of the 10 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Democrats and four Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 4 of the 10 districts up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
No incumbents faced primary competition on August 16. Four incumbents did not seek re-election and another six incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents[edit]
Four incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 6 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents—one Democrat and three Republicans—can be found above.
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index — the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition and general elections between partisan candidates — showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Alaska's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Alaska Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 14.8% | 8.7% | 66.7% | 30.1 | 22 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Alaska in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Alaska State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 26 | $1,789,171 |
| 2012 | 45 | $2,923,197 |
| 2010 | 19 | $1,227,417 |
| 2008 | 19 | $860,748 |
| 2006 | 24 | $1,554,803 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Alaska, at $68,814 per candidate, is ranked 28 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications[edit]
Article II, Section 2 of the Alaska Constitution states: "A member of the legislature shall be a qualified voter who has been a resident of Alaska for at least three years and of the district from which elected for at least one year, immediately preceding his filing for office. A senator shall be at least twenty-five years of age and a representative at least twenty-one years of age."
See also[edit]
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ KTUU, "LEGISLATURE: Incumbents losing several races in Alaska primary election," accessed August 17, 2016
- ↑ Alaska Public Radio, "Von Imhof wins Republican primary for Senate L," accessed August 17, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Alaska," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
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