Published on Sept. 21, 2020
Ballotpedia's 2020 study of competitiveness in state executive official elections found that 35.6% of incumbents did not seek re-election, leaving those offices open. This was lower than 2018 (38.6%) and 2016 (45.2%), but higher than 2014 (32.7%). The decade average for open offices was 36.5%.
Our study also found that 19.7% of partisan races did not have major party competition (meaning either a Democrat or Republican ran uncontested), the highest rate in even-year elections since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012. The two previous presidential year election cycles, 2012 and 2016, saw rates of 11.8% and 12.8%, respectively. The decade average for races without major party competition was 12.9%.[2]
Key sections of analysis on this page include:
Of the various types of executive offices, only seven exist in all 50 states: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner.
Other state executive offices include lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, auditor, public lands commissioner, tax commissioner, railroad commissioner, public education commissioner, mine inspector, executive council, state board of equalization, state board of education, and state board of regents.[4]
An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.
Incumbent advantage is frequently cited in political theory and its importance frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 27 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2018. From 2008-2018, the re-election rate averaged 92.1%.
There were 58 state executive office elections in 2020 where the incumbent did not seek re-election. As a percentage of all offices on the ballot, 35.6% of incumbents did not seek re-election. This was lower than 2018 (38.6%) and 2016 (45.2%), but higher than 2014 (32.7%). The decade average for open offices was 36.5%.
Even-numbered election years are highlighted.
Source: Ballotpedia
Click [Show] on the table below to view number totals:
Open offices v. incumbents seeking re-election, 2011-2020 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offices up for election | Open offices | % Open offices | Incumbents seeking re-election | % Incumbents seeking re-election | |||
2020 | 163 | 58 | 35.6% | 105 | 64.4% | ||
2019 | 33 | 15 | 45.4% | 18 | 54.5% | ||
2018 | 303 | 117 | 38.6% | 186 | 61.4% | ||
2017* | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 3 | 37.5% | ||
2016 | 93 | 42 | 45.2% | 51 | 54.8% | ||
2015 | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 16 | 64.0% | ||
2014 | 226 | 74 | 32.7% | 152 | 67.3% | ||
2013* | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 | 50.0% | ||
2012 | 94 | 27 | 28.7% | 67 | 71.3% | ||
2011 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 19 | 73.1% | ||
Total | 977 | 357 | 36.5% | 620 | 63.5% |
*These results were not considered statistically significant due to small sample size.
Source: Ballotpedia
Click [show] on the table header below for complete, state-by-state information on open offices and guaranteed newcomers.
Open state executive offices, 2020 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Offices up | Open Democratic offices | % of
open offices |
Open Republican offices | % of open offices | Other open offices[5] | % of open offices | Total open offices | Open % of offices up | Rank |
Alabama | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 40.0% | 11 |
Arizona | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 66.7% | 4 |
Colorado | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 83.3% | 1 |
Delaware | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Georgia | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Hawaii | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 25.0% | 16 |
Indiana | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Kansas | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 17 |
Louisiana | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Massachusetts | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 12.5% | 20 |
Michigan | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 6 |
Missouri | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Montana | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 62.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 2 |
Nebraska | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 28.6% | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 42.9% | 10 |
Nevada | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 6 | 75.0% | 2 |
New Hampshire | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 33.3% | 12 |
New Mexico | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 57.1% | 5 |
North Carolina | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 30.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 30.0% | 15 |
North Dakota | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 16.7% | 18 |
Ohio | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 33.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 50.0% | 6 |
Oklahoma | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Oregon | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 33.3% | 12 |
Pennsylvania | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 33.3% | 12 |
South Dakota | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Texas | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 44.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 44.4% | 9 |
Utah | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 30.8% | 1 | 7.7% | 6 | 46.2% | 8 |
Vermont | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 16.7% | 18 |
Washington | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 11.1% | 21 |
West Virginia | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 22 |
Total | 163 | 22 | 13.5% | 29 | 17.8% | 7 | 4.3% | 58 | 35.6% | - |
Of the 58 open state executive races in 2020, 11 of them (19.0%) occurred because term limits prevented the incumbent from running again. This was the lowest amount since 2016, when many of the same offices were on the ballot. That year, term limits were responsible for 14% of the open offices. In 2018, term limits were responsible for 43% of open offices, the largest number for all even-numbered election year between 2011 and 2020.
Some examples:
Even-numbered election years are highlighted.
Source: Ballotpedia
The following charts provide information on primary competitiveness including the total number of primaries and the number of incumbents challenged in primaries. Races, where candidates are chosen exclusively through the convention process rather than primaries, are not included in this analysis.
Most state executive official elections occur in midterm election cycles rather than presidential election cycles. In 2020, there was a 31.2% decrease in offices up for election in 2020 compared to 2018. The number of candidates running decreased 36.2%. The number of open offices has fallen 43.8%, and the number of primaries has dropped 50.9%. Election competitiveness measurements were higher this in 2020 than in 2016.[7]
In 2020, 105 incumbents sought re-election, 102 of whom could have faced contested primaries.[8] Of that total, 37 (36.3%) had a contested primary and 63 (63.0%) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.[9]
By party, 18 of the 51 Democratic incumbents seeking re-election through the primary process (35.3%) had contested primaries compared to 19 of the 51 Republican incumbents (37.3%). Three incumbents ran for re-election for offices nominated solely through the convention process and are not included here.
Click [show] on the table below to see details regarding incumbents in contested primaries in each state.
Incumbents in contested primaries, 2020 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Seats up | Democratic incs in primaries[10] | % of Democratic incs seeking re-election | Republican incs in primaries[11] | % of Republican incs seeking re-election | Total incs in primaries[12] | % of total incs seeking re-election | Rank | ||
Alabama | 5 | 0/0 | - | 1/3 | 33.3% | 1/3 | 33.3% | 13 | ||
Arizona | 3 | 0/0 | - | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0/1 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Colorado | 6 | 0/0 | - | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0/1 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Delaware | 3 | 2/3 | 66.7% | 0/0 | - | 2/3 | 66.7% | 5 | ||
Georgia | 2 | 0/0 | - | 0/2 | 0.0% | 0/2 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Hawaii | 4 | 2/2 | 100.0% | 1/1 | 100.0% | 3/3 | 100.0% | 1 | ||
Indiana | 3 | 0/0 | - | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0/1 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Kansas | 5 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 1/3 | 33.3% | 1/4 | 25.0% | 17 | ||
Louisiana | 2 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 1/1 | 100.0% | 1/2 | 50.0% | 6 | ||
Massachusetts | 8 | 1/7 | 14.3% | 0/0 | - | 1/7 | 14.3% | 19 | ||
Michigan | 8 | 0/4 | 0.0% | 0/0 | - | 0/4 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Missouri | 5 | 0/0 | - | 2/5 | 40.0% | 2/5 | 40.0% | 9 | ||
Montana | 8 | 0/0 | - | 1/2 | 50.0% | 1/2 | 50.0% | 6 | ||
Nebraska | 7 | 0/3 | 0.0% | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0/4 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Nevada | 8 | 2/2 | 100.0% | 0/0 | - | 2/2 | 100.0% | 1 | ||
New Hampshire | 6 | 0/2 | 0.0% | 1/2 | 50.0% | 1/4 | 25.0% | 17 | ||
New Mexico | 7 | 1/3 | 33.3% | 0/0 | - | 1/3 | 33.3% | 13 | ||
North Carolina | 10 | 2/4 | 50.0% | 1/3 | 33.3% | 3/7 | 42.9% | 8 | ||
North Dakota | 6 | 0/0 | - | 2/5 | 40.0% | 2/5 | 40.0% | 9 | ||
Ohio | 6 | 1/2 | 50.0% | 0/1 | 0.0% | 1/3 | 33.3% | 13 | ||
Oklahoma | 1 | 0/0 | - | 1/1 | 100.0% | 1/1 | 100.0% | 1 | ||
Oregon | 3 | 0/2 | 0.0% | 0/0 | - | 0/2 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Pennsylvania | 3 | 0/2 | 0.0% | 0/0 | - | 0/2 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
South Dakota[14] | 1 | 0/0 | - | 0/0 | 0.0% | 0/0 | 0.0% | 21 | ||
Texas | 9 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 2/4 | 50.0% | 2/5 | 40.0% | 9 | ||
Utah | 13 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 1/6 | 16.7% | 1/7 | 14.3% | 19 | ||
Vermont | 6 | 1/4 | 25.0% | 1/1 | 100.0% | 2/5 | 40.0% | 9 | ||
Washington | 9 | 6/6 | 100.0% | 1/2 | 50.0% | 7/8 | 87.5% | 4 | ||
West Virginia | 6 | 0/1 | 0.0% | 2/5 | 40.0% | 2/6 | 33.3% | 13 | ||
Total | 163 | 18/51 | 35.3% | 19/51 | 37.3% | 37/102 | 36.3% | - |
The following table lists incumbents defeated state executive conventions, primaries, and general elections:
When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state executive office, the party is all but guaranteed to win the office. Partisan races for 27 of 137 state executive offices (19.7%) did not have major party competition in 2020, the highest rate in even-year elections since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012.[15] The two previous presidential year election cycles, 2016 and 2012, saw rates of 11.8% and 12.8%, respectively.
Races for 11 of 93 offices up in 2016 (11.8%), the most recent cycle when a comparable number of seats were on the ballot, lacked major party competition. In 2018, 32 of 298 offices (10.7%) lacked major party competition.
In 2020, races for 15 offices did not have a Republican candidate. The offices with no Republicans on the ballot and thus likely to be won by Democrats included:
Races for 12 offices did not have a Democratic candidate. The offices with no Democrats on the ballot and thus likely to be won by Republicans included:
Click [show] on the table below to see details of seats up for election without major party competition in each state.
Offices without major party competition, 2020 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Offices up | Democratic offices | % of all offices | Republican offices | % of all offices | Total offices without major party competition | % of all offices | Rank |
Alabama | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 9 |
Arizona | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Colorado | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 16.7% | 11 |
Delaware | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Georgia | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Hawaii | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 75.0% | 3 |
Indiana | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Kansas | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 20.0% | 9 |
Louisiana | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Massachusetts | 8 | 8 | 100.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 100.0% | 1 |
Michigan | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Missouri | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Montana | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Nebraska | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 42.9% | 7 |
Nevada | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 37.5% | 8 |
New Hampshire | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
New Mexico | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 | 14.3% | 5 | 71.4% | 4 |
North Carolina | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
North Dakota | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 16.7% | 11 |
Ohio | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 50.0% | 6 |
Oklahoma | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | 1 |
Oregon | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Pennsylvania | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
South Dakota | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Texas | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 11.1% | 1 | 11.1% | 14 |
Utah | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 8 | 61.5% | 9 | 69.2% | 5 |
Vermont | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 16.7% | 11 |
Washington | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
West Virginia | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 15 |
Total | 163 | 23 | 14.1% | 18 | 11.0% | 41 | 25.2% | - |
Competitiveness in state executive races can be affected by a recent U.S. presidential contest that alters the previously assumed balance of power between the two major parties in a state. A state executive official elected as a Republican during a non-presidential year may soon find voters cast their ballots for the presidential candidate of the opposite party or vice versa. This may influence an incumbent's decision to seek re-election. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won ten states holding state executive official election in 2020 and Donald Trump (R) won 19 .
In 2020, there were 71 incumbents holding statewide partisan offices who were not term-limited.[16] The table below breaks down that number by each party's incumbents in states won by Clinton or Trump and the number of such incumbents who did not seek re-election:
For both Democrats and Republicans, the percentage open offices in states won by the opposing party's presidential candidate in 2016 was higher than party average. This means that a Democratic incumbent was more likely not to seek re-election in a state Trump won than a similar incumbent in a state Clinton won and vice versa for Republican incumbents. These departures occurred in two states. Four Democratic incumbents did not seek re-election in Michigan, which Trump won, and one Republican incumbent did not seek re-election in Oregon, which Clinton won:
Departing 2020 incumbents in states won by opposing party's presidential nominee in 2016 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Office | Most recent margin of victory | Trump/Clinton | 2016 margin of victory | |||||
Michigan | ||||||||||
Michelle Fecteau | Board of Education | 5.9% (2012) |
Trump | 0.2%[17] | ||||||
Lupe Ramos-Montigny | Board of Education | 2.4% (2012) | ||||||||
Joel Ferguson | Board of Regents | 4.8% (2012) | ||||||||
Sandra O'Brien | Board of Regents | 6.5% (2012) | ||||||||
Oregon | Bev Clarno | Secretary of State | N/A[18] | Clinton | 11.0% |
The number of open offices in state executive races may also increase due to the existence of a pivot county within the state.
Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. David Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections provided the raw data for this study. Collectively, Trump won these pivot counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.5%.
Of the 58 total incumbents not seeking re-election in 2020, 11 were term-limited and another 11 were in nonpartisan offices. Of the remaining 36 open offices, 25 (69.4%) were in states with at least one pivot county. All Democratic incumbent departures occurred in states with at least one pivot county. For Republicans, 12 of 20 departures (60.0%) occurred in states with at least one pivot county. For both parties, two departures came after incumbents chose to seek a different office.[19]
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