Arizona Attorney General election, 2018

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Arizona Attorney General
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent(s): Mark Brnovich (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness State executive elections in 2018 Impact of term limits in 2018 State government trifectas and triplexes Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Arizona executive elections
Governor Attorney general Secretary of state Treasurer Superintendent of public instruction Mine inspector Corporation commission

Incumbent Mark Brnovich (R) defeated January Contreras (D) in the 2018 general election for Arizona Attorney General.

Brnovich was first elected in 2014 by a margin of 6 percentage points after unseating incumbent Tom Horne (R) in the Republican primary. Of the ten preceding attorney general elections, a Republican candidate won seven—including Brnovich's victory in 2014—and a Democratic candidate won three. At the time of the 2018 election, the most recent Democratic candidate to win an attorney general election in Arizona was Terry Goddard in 2006.^[1] In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) carried Arizona by a margin of 4 percentage points.

Despite Brnovich's victory in the attorney general election and Doug Ducey's (R) victory in the gubernatorial election, the Republican triplex in Arizona was broken as a result of Katie Hobbs' (D) victory in the secretary of state election.

For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
For more information about attorney general elections in 2018, click here.

Candidates and election results[edit]

No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Michael Kielsky (L)

Candidate profiles[edit]

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages

Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Arizona Attorney General election, 2018
Poll	Poll sponsor	January Contreras (D)	Mark Brnovich (R)	Undecided/Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size
OH Predictive Insights (October 22-23, 2018)	ABC 15 Arizona	39%	53%	8%	+/-4.0	600
OH Predictive Insights (October 1-2, 2018)	ABC 15 Arizona	32%	54%	14%	+/-4.0	600
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign finance[edit]

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Arizona Secretary of State.

Satellite spending[edit]

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[8][9][10]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

• Clean Energy for a Healthy Arizona, a group associated with Tom Steyer, reported spending $3.6 million on advertising opposed to Brnovich as of October 13, 2018.^[11]

• The Democratic Attorneys General Association reported spending $750,000 in support of Contreras as of October 17, 2018, with an additional $1 million in spending planned in the lead-up to the election.^[12]

• The Republican Attorneys General Association reported spending $1.5 million opposing Contreras and supporting Brnovich as of October 17, 2018, with an additional $1 million in spending planned in the lead-up to the election.^[12]

Noteworthy endorsements[edit]

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites:

• Mark Brnovich
• January Contreras

Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement	Contreras (D)	Brnovich (R)
Newspapers and editorials
Arizona Republic[13]		✔
Elected officials
Former President Barack Obama (D)[14]	✔
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)[15]	✔

Timeline[edit]

• November 1, 2018: An OH Predictive Insights poll sponsored by ABC 15 Arizona found Brnovich leading Contreras 53-39. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points.
• October 17, 2018: The Arizona Republic endorsed Brnovich.
• October 8, 2018: An OH Predictive Insights poll sponsored by ABC 15 Arizona found Brnovich leading Contreras 54-32. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points.

Campaign ads[edit]

Mark Brnovich[edit]

Support[edit]

"Justice for All" - Brnovich campaign ad, released September 10, 2018

Debates and forums[edit]

• Brnovich and Contreras met for a debate hosted by PBS on October 10, 2018.^[16] Click here for footage of the debate.

Campaign themes[edit]

Mark Brnovich[edit]

Brnovich's campaign website stated the following:

January Contreras[edit]

Contreras' campaign website stated the following:

Social media[edit]

Twitter accounts[edit]

Tweets by Mark Brnovich Tweets by January Contreras

Facebook accounts[edit]

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Mark Brnovich

January Contreras

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

• Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona.
• Republicans held five of the nine U.S. House seats in Arizona.

State executives[edit]

• As of September 2018, Republicans held 7 of 11 state executive positions. The remaining four positions were officially nonpartisan.
• The governor of Arizona was Republican Doug Ducey. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature[edit]

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

• Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seats
• Nine U.S. House seats
• Governor
• Seven lower state executive positions
• 30 state Senate seats
• 60 state House seats

Demographics[edit]

Demographic data for Arizona
	Arizona	U.S.
Total population:	6,817,565	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	113,594	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	78.4%	73.6%
Black/African American:	4.2%	12.6%
Asian:	3%	5.1%
Native American:	4.4%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0.2%	0.2%
Two or more:	3.2%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	30.3%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	86%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	27.5%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$50,255	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	21.2%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).^[20][21]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	48.7%	Hillary Clinton	45.1%	3.6%
2012	Mitt Romney	53.7%	Barack Obama	44.6%	9.1%
2008	John McCain	53.6%	Barack Obama	45.1%	7.5%
2004	George W. Bush	54.9%	John Kerry	44.4%	10.5%
2000	George W. Bush	51.0%	Al Gore	44.5%	5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	John McCain	53.7%	Ann Kirkpatrick	40.7%	13.0%
2012	Jeff Flake	49.2%	Richard Carmona	46.2%	3.0%
2010	John McCain	58.9%	Rodney Glassman	34.7%	24.2%
2006	Jon Kyl	53.3%	Jim Pederson	43.5%	9.8%
2004	John McCain	76.7%	Stuart Starky	20.6%	56.1%
2002	Jon Kyl	79.3%	William Toel (I)	7.8%	7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Doug Ducey	53.4%	Fred DuVal	41.6%	11.8%
2010	Jan Brewer	54.3%	Terry Goddard	42.4%	12.1%
2006	Janet Napolitano	62.6%	Len Munsil	35.4%	27.2%
2002	Janet Napolitano	46.2%	Matt Salmon	45.2%	1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2014	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2012	4	44.4%	5	55.5%	D+1
2010	5	62.5%	3	37.5%	R+2
2008	3	37.5%	5	62.5%	D+2
2006	4	50%	4	50%	Even
2004	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2002	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2000	5	83.3%	1	16.6%	R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2022
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[22][23]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	30.1%	68.2%	R+38.2	28.6%	66.9%	R+38.3	R
2	57.2%	41.6%	D+15.7	59.4%	36.1%	D+23.2	D
3	70.0%	28.1%	D+41.9	70.2%	24.4%	D+45.8	D
4	54.3%	44.2%	D+10.2	56.8%	38.2%	D+18.7	D
5	28.1%	70.0%	R+41.9	22.2%	73.5%	R+51.3	R
6	42.2%	55.6%	R+13.4	41.7%	52.1%	R+10.4	R
7	63.2%	35.4%	D+27.8	59.8%	34.1%	D+25.7	D
8	44.7%	53.5%	R+8.8	40.2%	54.6%	R+14.4	R
9	53.4%	44.9%	D+8.4	56.8%	37.9%	D+18.9	D
10	51.8%	46.5%	D+5.4	52.9%	41.6%	D+11.4	D
11	39.7%	59.0%	R+19.3	40.6%	54.5%	R+13.9	R
12	32.5%	65.9%	R+33.4	34.8%	59.3%	R+24.5	R
13	33.5%	65.1%	R+31.6	34.1%	61.1%	R+27	R
14	35.7%	62.5%	R+26.8	33.6%	59.9%	R+26.2	R
15	36.4%	61.9%	R+25.4	39.1%	55.7%	R+16.6	R
16	35.0%	63.1%	R+28.1	32.9%	61.3%	R+28.4	R
17	42.1%	56.2%	R+14.2	45.1%	49.2%	R+4.1	R
18	48.1%	50.0%	R+1.9	51.9%	41.5%	D+10.4	R
19	66.4%	32.1%	D+34.3	67.4%	27.2%	D+40.3	D
20	42.4%	55.3%	R+12.9	42.7%	50.7%	R+8	R
21	40.6%	58.0%	R+17.4	39.8%	55.0%	R+15.2	R
22	33.4%	65.4%	R+31.9	33.7%	62.1%	R+28.4	R
23	35.9%	62.9%	R+26.9	41.2%	54.6%	R+13.3	R
24	63.2%	34.4%	D+28.8	65.9%	27.7%	D+38.3	D
25	33.1%	65.1%	R+31.9	35.1%	58.7%	R+23.6	R
26	58.3%	38.5%	D+19.8	59.4%	31.9%	D+27.5	D
27	75.2%	23.2%	D+52	74.1%	20.6%	D+53.5	D
28	44.6%	53.6%	R+9	49.9%	44.6%	D+5.3	R
29	64.7%	33.6%	D+31.1	65.0%	29.3%	D+35.7	D
30	61.3%	36.7%	D+24.7	62.2%	31.7%	D+30.5	D
Total	44.6%	53.7%	R+9.1	45.5%	49.0%	R+3.6	-
Source: Daily Kos

Recent news[edit]

The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Arizona attorney general election 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

See also[edit]

Arizona government: Arizona state executive offices Arizona State Legislature Arizona courts

Elections: Arizona state executive official elections, 2018 Gubernatorial elections, 2018 Lieutenant gubernatorial elections, 2018 Attorney General elections, 2018 Secretary of State elections, 2018 State executive official elections, 2018, 2017, 2016

Ballotpedia exclusives: State executives compensation State of the state addresses Trifecta control of state government

External links[edit]

• Arizona attorney general official website

Footnotes[edit]

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