Arkansas House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Arkansas Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | March 1, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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All 100 seats in the Arkansas House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Republicans picked up nine seats in the November 2016 general election.
Contents
Introduction[edit]
Ballotpedia's analysis revealed that only 42 of the 100 seats up for election in 2016 involved competition between Democrats and Republicans. This made it numerically impossible for Democrats to take control of either Arkansas legislative chamber in 2016.
The reason for the low competition was that candidates were in safe districts for their parties. Between 1972 and 2014, an upward trend in uncontested state legislative elections occurred.
The Democratic Party of Arkansas focused its 2016 efforts on the state’s House of Representatives. Without the numbers to win the state Senate, H.L. Moody, communications director for the Democratic Party of Arkansas, told Ballotpedia that the party’s goal was to “start building back where we can,” beginning with the House.
Ballotpedia spoke to political analyst Richard Winger, who said that the early primary deadline for the 2016 elections was a possible factor as well, making it difficult for Democrats to recruit candidates early.
The primary election was held on March 1, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing period began at noon local time on November 2, 2015, and ended at noon local time on November 9, 2015.[1]
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Arkansas House of Representatives:
| Arkansas House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 34 | 27 | |
| Republican Party | 64 | 73 | |
| Independent | 1 | 0 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
Retired incumbents[edit]
Thirteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Mary P. Hickerson |  Republican |
House District 1 |
| John Baine |  Democratic |
House District 7 |
| Nate Bell |  Nonpartisan |
House District 20 |
| John T. Vines | Democratic |
House District 25 |
| Julie Mayberry | Republican |
House District 27 |
| Donnie Copeland | Republican |
House District 38 |
| Dave Wallace | Republican |
House District 54 |
| Mary Broadaway | Democratic |
House District 57 |
| Betty Overbey | Democratic |
House District 69 |
| Justin T. Harris | Republican |
House District 81 |
| Lance Eads | Republican |
House District 88 |
| Micah Neal | Republican |
House District 89 |
| Kelley Linck | Republican |
House District 99 |
Note: Incumbent Sheilla Lampkin (D) died on July 23, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Arkansas continues below average performance in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Arkansas performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Arkansas State Senate elections, 2016, there were 13 Democratic incumbents and 24 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. Two primary challenges took place in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 36 Democratic incumbents, 63 Republican incumbents, and one independent incumbent. Two state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were six primary challenges that took place in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Arkansas can be found below.
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
| 2016 Arkansas House general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Carol Dalby  |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Lane Jean (I) |
|
| 3 | Brent Talley: 3,872 (I) | Danny Watson: 5,311 |
Cecil Anderson: 157 (L) |
| 4 | Fonda Hawthorne: 2,485 | DeAnn Vaught: 6,805 (I) |
|
| 5 | David Fielding (I) |
No candidate | |
| 6 | No candidate | Matthew Shepherd (I) |
|
| 7 | Floyd Thomas, Jr.: 3,827 | Sonia Eubanks Barker: 5,606 |
Glenn Glover: 796 (Ind.) |
| 8 | Jeff Wardlaw (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | LeAnne Burch: 6,519 |
No candidate | |
| 10 | Dorothy Hall: 4,024 | Mike Holcomb: 7,043 (I) |
|
| 11 | Mark McElroy (I) |
No candidate | |
| 12 | Chris Richey (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | David Hillman (I) |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Camille Bennett: 5,391 (I) | Roger Lynch: 5,867 |
|
| 15 | No candidate | Ken Bragg: 9,816 (I) |
Wayne Willems: 2,002 (L) |
| 16 | Ken Ferguson (I) |
No candidate | |
| 17 | Vivian Flowers (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Richard Bright: 5,088 | Richard Womack: 6,499 (I) |
|
| 19 | No candidate | Justin Gonzales (I) |
|
| 20 | No candidate | John Maddox: 8,936 |
Henry Nielson: 1,688 (Ind.) |
| 21 | No candidate | Marcus Richmond (I) |
|
| 22 | No candidate | Mickey Gates (I) |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Lanny Fite (I) |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Bruce Cozart (I) |
|
| 25 | Jerry Rephan: 4,208 | Les Warren: 5,973 |
|
| 26 | No candidate | Laurie Rushing (I) |
|
| 27 | Melissa Fults: 3,748 | Andy Mayberry: 8,711 |
|
| 28 | No candidate | Kim Hammer (I) |
|
| 29 | Fredrick Love: 6,844 (I) |
No candidate | Glen Schwarz: 1,078 (L) |
| 30 | Fred Allen |
No candidate | |
| 31 | No candidate | Andy Davis (I) |
|
| 32 | Susan Inman: 6,559 | Jim Sorvillo: 8,435 (I) |
|
| 33 | Warwick Sabin: 9,472 (I) |
No candidate | Michael Williams: 2,683 (L) |
| 34 | John W. Walker (I) |
No candidate | |
| 35 | Clarke Tucker (I) |
No candidate | |
| 36 | Charles Blake (I) |
No candidate | |
| 37 | Eddie Armstrong, III (I) |
No candidate | |
| 38 | Victoria Leigh: 6,466 | Carlton Wing: 7,019 |
|
| 39 | Bill Rahn: 6,223 | Mark Lowery: 7,318 (I) |
|
| 40 | No candidate | Douglas House (I) |
|
| 41 | No candidate | Karilyn Brown (I) |
|
| 42 | J.P. Bob Johnson: 5,100 (I) |
Patrick Thomas: 3,622 | |
| 43 | No candidate | Tim Lemons (I) |
|
| 44 | No candidate | Joe Farrer: 9,243 (I) |
Garry Baker: 2,070 (L) |
| 45 | No candidate | Jeremy Gillam (I) |
|
| 46 | No candidate | Les Eaves (I) |
|
| 47 | Michael John Gray (I) |
No candidate | |
| 48 | Reginald Murdock (I) |
No candidate | |
| 49 | Marshall Wright: 4,411 (I) | Steve Hollowell: 5,539 |
|
| 50 | Milton Nicks, Jr. (I) |
No candidate | |
| 51 | Deborah Ferguson (I) |
No candidate | |
| 52 | No candidate | Dwight Tosh (I) |
|
| 53 | No candidate | Dan Sullivan (I) |
|
| 54 | Hunter Williams: 2,259 | Johnny Rye: 6,490 |
|
| 55 | Monte Hodges (I) |
No candidate | |
| 56 | Joe Jett (I) |
No candidate | |
| 57 | Frankie Gilliam: 3,351 | Jimmy Gazaway: 6,496 |
|
| 58 | Nate Looney: 5,153 | Brandt Smith: 6,448 (I) |
|
| 59 | No candidate | Jack Ladyman (I) |
|
| 60 | James Ratliff: 4,948 (I) | Frances Cavenaugh: 5,112 |
|
| 61 | Scott Baltz: 5,559 (I) |
Marsh Davis: 4,996 | Chris Olson: 467 (L) |
| 62 | No candidate | Michelle Gray (I) |
|
| 63 | No candidate | James Sturch (I) |
|
| 64 | No candidate | John Payton (I) |
|
| 65 | No candidate | Rick Beck (I) |
|
| 66 | No candidate | Josh Miller (I) |
|
| 67 | No candidate | Stephen Meeks (I) |
|
| 68 | No candidate | Trevor Drown (I) |
|
| 69 | George Overbey, Jr.: 4,344 | Aaron Pilkington: 6,088 |
|
| 70 | No candidate | David Meeks (I) |
|
| 71 | No candidate | Kenneth Henderson (I) |
|
| 72 | Steve Magie: 6,315 (I) |
Shannon Taylor: 4,239 | |
| 73 | Lesa Wolfe Crowell: 2,094 | Mary Bentley: 6,536 (I) |
|
| 74 | No candidate | Jon S. Eubanks (I) |
|
| 75 | No candidate | Charlotte Vining Douglas (I) |
|
| 76 | No candidate | Mathew Pitsch (I) |
|
| 77 | No candidate | Justin Boyd: 7,133 (I) |
Stephen Edwards: 3,051 (L) |
| 78 | George McGill (I) |
No candidate | |
| 79 | No candidate | Gary Deffenbaugh (I) |
|
| 80 | No candidate | Charlene Fite (I) |
|
| 81 | Susan McGaughey: 3,187 | Bruce Coleman: 8,259 |
|
| 82 | No candidate | Sarah Capp |
|
| 83 | No candidate | David Branscum (I) |
|
| 84 | No candidate | Charlie Collins (I) |
|
| 85 | David Whitaker: 7,453 (I) |
Dwight Gonzales: 6,624 | |
| 86 | Greg Leding (I) |
No candidate | |
| 87 | No candidate | Robin Lundstrum (I) |
|
| 88 | No candidate | Clint Penzo |
|
| 89 | Irvin Camacho: 2,210 | Jeff Williams: 2,823 |
|
| 90 | No candidate | Jana Della Rosa (I) |
|
| 91 | No candidate | Dan Douglas (I) |
|
| 92 | No candidate | Kim Hendren (I) |
|
| 93 | No candidate | Jim Dotson (I) |
|
| 94 | Grimsley Graham: 4,136 | Rebecca Petty: 4,926 (I) |
|
| 95 | No candidate | Austin McCollum: 10,012 |
Grant Brand: 3,188 (L) |
| 96 | No candidate | Grant Hodges: 7,299 (I) |
Michael Kalagias: 2,919 (L) |
| 97 | No candidate | Bob Ballinger (I) |
|
| 98 | No candidate | Ron McNair (I) |
|
| 99 | No candidate | Jack Fortner |
|
| 100 | No candidate | Nelda Speaks (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election[edit]
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Arkansas House of Representatives in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 100 races in the Arkansas House of Representatives in 2016, 33 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 28.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Democratic candidates in the Arkansas House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 27 races in 2016. In the six races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.4 percent. Republicans won 73 races. In the 27 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 28.7 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Seven of the 33 contested races in 2016—21.2 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Three races saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Republicans won five of the seven races with a margin of victory of 10 percent or less and all three of the races with a margin of victory of 5 percent or less. |
Arkansas House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 14 R 4.2 percent District 38 R 4.1 percent District 39 R 8.1 percent District 60 R 1.6 percent District 61 D 5.1 percent District 85 D 5.9 percent District 94 R 8.7 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Arkansas House who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. The average margin of victory for the 18 winning Arkansas House incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 31.5 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Arkansas House saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 54 Republican incumbents won reelection. In the 12 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.5 percent. 25 Democratic incumbents won reelection. In the six races where winning Democratic incumbents faced challengers, the average margin of victory was 29.4 percent. |
Arkansas House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 27 29.4 percent 25 29.4 percent 19 21 77.8 percent Republican 73 28.7 percent 54 32.5 percent 42 46 63.0 percent Total 100 28.8 percent 79 31.5 percent 61 67 67.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Arkansas House districts in 2016.
| Arkansas House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | R | 15.4 percent |
| District 4 | R | 46.5 percent |
| District 5 | D | Unopposed |
| District 6 | R | Unopposed |
| District 7 | R | 17.4 percent |
| District 8 | D | Unopposed |
| District 9 | D | Unopposed |
| District 10 | R | 27.3 percent |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 12 | D | Unopposed |
| District 13 | D | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 4.2 percent |
| District 15 | R | 66.1 percent |
| District 16 | D | Unopposed |
| District 17 | D | Unopposed |
| District 18 | R | 12.2 percent |
| District 19 | R | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 68.2 percent |
| District 21 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 24 | R | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | 17.3 percent |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | R | 39.8 percent |
| District 28 | R | Unopposed |
| District 29 | D | 72.8 percent |
| District 30 | D | Unopposed |
| District 31 | R | Unopposed |
| District 32 | R | 12.5 percent |
| District 33 | D | 55.9 percent |
| District 34 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | D | Unopposed |
| District 36 | D | Unopposed |
| District 37 | D | Unopposed |
| District 38 | R | 4.1 percent |
| District 39 | R | 8.1 percent |
| District 40 | R | Unopposed |
| District 41 | R | Unopposed |
| District 42 | D | 17.0 percent |
| District 43 | R | Unopposed |
| District 44 | R | 63.4 percent |
| District 45 | R | Unopposed |
| District 46 | R | Unopposed |
| District 47 | D | Unopposed |
| District 48 | D | Unopposed |
| District 49 | R | 11.3 percent |
| District 50 | D | Unopposed |
| District 51 | D | Unopposed |
| District 52 | R | Unopposed |
| District 53 | R | Unopposed |
| District 54 | R | 48.4 percent |
| District 55 | D | Unopposed |
| District 56 | D | Unopposed |
| District 57 | R | 31.9 percent |
| District 58 | R | 11.2 percent |
| District 59 | R | Unopposed |
| District 60 | R | 1.6 percent |
| District 61 | D | 5.1 percent |
| District 62 | R | Unopposed |
| District 63 | R | Unopposed |
| District 64 | R | Unopposed |
| District 65 | R | Unopposed |
| District 66 | R | Unopposed |
| District 67 | R | Unopposed |
| District 68 | R | Unopposed |
| District 69 | R | 16.7 percent |
| District 70 | R | Unopposed |
| District 71 | R | Unopposed |
| District 72 | D | 19.7 percent |
| District 73 | R | 51.5 percent |
| District 74 | R | Unopposed |
| District 75 | R | Unopposed |
| District 76 | R | Unopposed |
| District 77 | R | 40.1 percent |
| District 78 | D | Unopposed |
| District 79 | R | Unopposed |
| District 80 | R | Unopposed |
| District 81 | R | 44.3 percent |
| District 82 | R | Unopposed |
| District 83 | R | Unopposed |
| District 84 | R | Unopposed |
| District 85 | D | 5.9 percent |
| District 86 | D | Unopposed |
| District 87 | R | Unopposed |
| District 88 | R | Unopposed |
| District 89 | R | 12.2 percent |
| District 90 | R | Unopposed |
| District 91 | R | Unopposed |
| District 92 | R | Unopposed |
| District 93 | R | Unopposed |
| District 94 | R | 8.7 percent |
| District 95 | R | 51.7 percent |
| District 96 | R | 42.9 percent |
| District 97 | R | Unopposed |
| District 98 | R | Unopposed |
| District 99 | R | Unopposed |
| District 100 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Arkansas elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Arkansas in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| September 3, 2015 | Ballot access | Deadline for new political parties to file qualifying paperwork | |
| October 15, 2015 | Campaign finance | Quarterly report due for third quarter of 2015 | |
| November 2, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period for party candidates opens at 12:00 p.m.; filing period for nonpartisan candidates opens at 3:00 p.m.; filing period opens for independent and write-in candidates | |
| November 16, 2015 | Campaign finance | Statement of financial interest for 2014 due for non-incumbent candidates | |
| November 16, 2015 | Campaign finance | October monthly report due | |
| November 9, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period for party candidates closes at 12:00 p.m.; filing period for nonpartisan candidates closes at 3:00 p.m.; filing period closes for independent and write-in candidates | |
| December 15, 2015 | Campaign finance | November monthly report due | |
| January 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | December monthly report due | |
| February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Statement of financial interest for 2015 due for all candidates | |
| February 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | January monthly report due | |
| February 23, 2016 | Campaign finance | If opposed in primary, preelection report due for primary election | |
| March 1, 2016 | Election date | Preferential primary election; nonpartisan general election | |
| March 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | If unopposed in primary or did not participate in primary, February monthly report due | |
| March 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Preelection report due for primary election runoff | |
| March 22, 2016 | Election date | General primary runoff election | |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | If candidate did not participate in primary, March monthly report due | |
| May 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final report due for primary election and primary runoff | |
| May 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | April monthly report due | |
| June 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | May monthly report due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | June monthly report due | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | Municipal party primary election | |
| August 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | July monthly report due | |
| September 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | August monthly report due | |
| September 20, 2016 | Election date | Annual school board election | |
| October 11, 2016 | Election date | Annual school board runoff election | |
| October 17, 2016 | Campaign finance | September monthly report due | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Preelection report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election; nonpartisan runoff election | |
| November 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | October monthly report due if unopposed | |
| November 22, 2016 | Campaign finance | Preelection report due for special runoff election | |
| November 29, 2016 | Election date | General runoff election (county and municipal) | |
| December 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final report due general and runoff election | |
| Sources: Arkansas Secretary of State, "2016 Election Dates," accessed August 7, 2015 Arkansas State Board of Election Commissioners, "Running for Public Office: 2016 Edition," accessed September 21, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]
In 75 of the 100 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 23 Democrats and 52 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 25 of the 100 districts up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
Eight incumbents faced primary competition on March 1. Thirteen incumbents did not seek re-election and another 79 advanced past the primary without opposition. Two incumbents lost in the primary:
- District 30: Incumbent Charles Armstrong was defeated by Fred Allen in the Democratic primary.
- District 95: Incumbent Sue Scott was defeated by challenger Austin McCollum in the Republican primary.
Retired incumbents[edit]
Thirteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 87 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, eight Republicans, four Democrats and one Nonpartisan, can be found above.
Impact of term limits[edit]
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Arkansas House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Arkansas voters approved the Arkansas Term Limits Initiative in 1992 as an initiated constitutional amendment. In 2014, Arkansas voters passed the Arkansas Elected Officials Ethics, Transparency and Financial Reform Amendment which permits legislators to serve a total of 16 years in the House or Senate during his or her lifetime.
There are 100 members of the Arkansas House of Representatives. No representatives were term-limited in 2016.
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Comparison between years | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Inc that did face primary | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates that did face major party opp | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Arkansas' rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Arkansas General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Inc that did face primary | % Candidates that did face major party opp | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 26.3% | 9.2% | 31.4% | 22.9 | 40 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Arkansas in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Arkansas House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 167 | $6,308,731 |
| 2012 | 187 | $6,502,845 |
| 2010 | 192 | $5,568,131 |
| 2008 | 166 | $5,066,879 |
| 2006 | 174 | $4,657,977 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Arkansas, at $37,777 per candidate, is ranked 25 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications[edit]
Article 5, Section 4 of the Arkansas Constitution states: "No person shall be a Senator or Representative who, at the time of his election, is not a citizen of the United States, nor any one who has not been for two years next preceding his election, a resident of this State, and for one year next preceding his election, a resident of the county or district whence he may be chosen. Senators shall be at least twenty-five years of age, and Representatives at least twenty-one years of age."
See also[edit]
External links[edit]
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Arkansas Secretary of State, "2016 Election Dates," accessed November 17, 2015
- ↑ Penzo won the primary runoff on March 22
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Arkansas," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
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