Colorado State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Colorado Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | June 28, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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A total of 18 seats out of the 35 seats in the Colorado State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber. Colorado state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the state Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These are the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control. The Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) identified the chamber as a defensive target.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction[edit]
Elections for the Colorado State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 28, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was April 4, 2016.[1]
Daily Kos Elections identified the Colorado Senate as "perhaps the most competitive state legislative chamber in the nation this year." It noted that District 19, located in suburban Denver and held by Republican Laura J. Woods, sided with defeated Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Udall by half a percentage point and Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper by five points. Also, District 25, which was at that point held by Democrat Mary Hodge, voted for Udall's opponent Cory Gardner and Hickenlooper's opponent Bob Beauprez in 2014 but sided with Obama by seven points in 2012.[2]
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Colorado State Senate:
| Colorado State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 17 | 17 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | 18 | |
| Total | 35 | 35 | |
Retired incumbents[edit]
Nine incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheffel |  Republican |
Senate District 4 |
| Bill Cadman | Republican |
Senate District 12 |
| Rollie Heath |  Democratic |
Senate District 18 |
| Jessie Ulibarri | Democratic |
Senate District 21 |
| Mary Hodge | Democratic |
Senate District 25 |
| Linda Newell | Democratic |
Senate District 26 |
| Morgan Carroll | Democratic |
Senate District 29 |
| Pat Steadman | Democratic |
Senate District 31 |
| Michael Johnston | Democratic |
Senate District 33 |
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Colorado sees a small decrease in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Colorado performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Colorado State Senate, there were 17 Democratic incumbents and 18 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challenges in either party.
- In the House, there were 34 Democratic incumbents and 31 Republican incumbents. No state representatives faced opposition in the Democratic Party. There were five primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Colorado can be found below.
Races we watched[edit]
Ballotpedia identified six notable Colorado state legislative races in 2016, three of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Colorado races »
General election contests[edit]
- District 19 featured a candidate rematch in a closely divided district.
- ☐ Laura J. Woods (Inc.) ☑ Rachel Zenzinger ☐ Hans Romer
- District 25 featured an open seat in a swing district.
- District 26 featured an open seat in a swing district.
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
| 2016 Colorado Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 4 | Christina Riegel: 27,779 | Jim Smallwood: 62,981  |
|
| 8 | Emily Tracy: 32,530 | Randy Baumgardner: 39,526 (I) |
|
| 10 | Mark Barrionuevo: 24,430 | Owen Hill: 47,832 (I) |
|
| 12 | No candidate | Bob Gardner: 45,938 |
Manuel Quintel: 15,071 (L) |
| 14 | John Kefalas: 52,902 (I) |
Hans Hochheimer: 32,886 | |
| 17 | Matt Jones (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Stephen Fenberg: 67,799 |
M. Peter Spraitz: 17,370 | |
| 19 | Rachel Zenzinger: 39,070 |
Laura J. Woods: 37,592 (I) | Hans Romer: 5,112 (L) |
| 21 | Dominick Moreno |
No candidate | |
| 23 | T.J. Cole: 40,281 | Vicki Marble: 55,528 (I) |
|
| 25 | Jenise May: 27,678 | Kevin Priola: 30,074 |
|
| 26 | Daniel Kagan: 42,145 |
Nancy Doty: 36,666 | |
| 27 | Tom Sullivan: 38,489 | Jack Tate: 44,169 (I) |
|
| 28 | Nancy Todd: 39,143 (I) |
James Woodley: 31,096 | |
| 29 | Rhonda Fields: 30,998 |
Sebastian Chunn: 22,503 | Michele Poague: 3,698 (L) |
| 31 | Lois Court: 57,793 |
Bob Lane: 25,268 | |
| 33 | Angela Williams: 57,049 |
Raymon Doane: 12,564 | |
| 35 | Jim Casias: 23,358 | Larry Crowder: 38,880 (I) |
William Bartley: 2,668 (L) |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election[edit]
Ballotpedia identified three notable Colorado state primary races in 2016, two of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Colorado races »
Primary contests[edit]
- Two conservative Republicans competed for an open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Bob Gardner ☐ Gordon Klingenschmitt
- Two Democratic state representatives competed for an open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Rhonda Fields ☐ Su Ryden
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Colorado State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 18 races in the Colorado State Senate in 2016, 16 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 25.2 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Democratic candidates in the Colorado State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republicans candidates in 2016. Democrats won 10 races in 2016. In the eight races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 27.6 percent. Republicans won eight races. In the eight races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22.8 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Five of the 16 contested races in 2016—31.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Republicans won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less and Democrats won two. |
Colorado State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 8 R 9.7 percent District 19 D 1.8 percent District 25 R 4.1 percent District 26 D 7.0 percent District 27 R 6.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Colorado State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Eight incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the seven winning Colorado Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 17.7 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Colorado saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Five Republican incumbents won reelection. In the five races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.8 percent. Three Democratic incumbents won reelection. In the two races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.4 percent. |
Colorado State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 10 27.6 percent 3 17.4 percent 1 2 20.0 percent Republican 8 22.8 percent 5 17.8 percent 0 0 None Total 18 25.2 percent 8 17.7 percent 1 2 11.1 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Colorado State Senate districts in 2016.
| Colorado State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 4 | R | 38.8 percent |
| District 8 | R | 9.7 percent |
| District 10 | R | 32.4 percent |
| District 12 | R | 50.6 percent |
| District 14 | D | 23.3 percent |
| District 17 | D | Unopposed |
| District 18 | D | 59.2 percent |
| District 19 | D | 1.8 percent |
| District 21 | D | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | 15.9 percent |
| District 25 | R | 4.2 percent |
| District 26 | D | 7.0 percent |
| District 27 | R | 6.9 percent |
| District 28 | D | 11.5 percent |
| District 29 | D | 14.9 percent |
| District 31 | D | 39.2 percent |
| District 33 | D | 63.9 percent |
| District 35 | R | 23.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Colorado elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Colorado in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| April 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for major/minor party candidates to file candidate petitions for the primary election | |
| April 20, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for write-in candidates to file affidavits of intent for the primary election | |
| June 28, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| July 14, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for unaffiliated candidates to file nomination petitions for the general election | |
| July 21, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for write-in candidates to file affidavits of intent for the general election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Source: Colorado Secretary of State, "2016 Election Calendar," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates with major party opposition[edit]
In three of the 18 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Democrats and one Republican were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 15 of the 18 seats up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
No incumbents faced primary competition on June 28. Nine incumbents did not seek re-election and another nine incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents[edit]
Nine incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while another nine ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans and seven Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits[edit]
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Colorado State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Colorado voters approved Issue 5 in 1990. The affirmative vote by Colorado's electorate in Issue 5 altered Section 3 of Article V on the Colorado Constitution to say that Colorado State Senators could serve no more than two four-year terms in office.
There are 35 Colorado State Senators. In 2016, eight Senators, six Democrats and two Republicans, were ineligible to run for the senate again in November.
The state senators who were term-limited in 2016 were:
Democrats (6):
Republicans (2):
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Colorado's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Colorado General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 27.7% | 3.3% | 77.1% | 36.0 | 15 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Colorado in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Colorado State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 42 | $2,821,852 |
| 2012 | 59 | $2,977,488 |
| 2010 | 49 | $2,612,104 |
| 2008 | 41 | $2,561,798 |
| 2006 | 44 | $2,998,221 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Colorado, at $67,187 per candidate, is ranked 29 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications[edit]
Article 5, Section 4 of the Colorado Constitution states: "No person shall be a representative or senator who shall not have attained the age of twenty-five years, who shall not be a citizen of the United States, who shall not for at least twelve months next preceding his election, have resided within the territory included in the limits of the county or district in which he shall be chosen; provided, that any person who at the time of the adoption of this constitution, was a qualified elector under the territorial laws, shall be eligible to the first general assembly."
See also[edit]
External links[edit]
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Colorado Secretary of State, "Elections & Voting," accessed October 6, 2015
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Can Bernie Sanders help these candidates win their own primaries?" January 20, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Colorado," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
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