From Ballotpedia - Reading time: 27 min
|
2020 →
← 2016
|
|
| 2018 Colorado Senate elections | |
|---|---|
| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | June 26, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Democrats gained a majority in the 2018 elections for the Colorado State Senate, as after the election, they controlled 19 seats to Republicans' 16. Seventeen of the 35 Senate seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans held 18 seats to Democrats' 16, with one seat held by an independent.
Ballotpedia identified six of the races as battlegrounds, including three Democratic-held districts, two Republican-held districts, and the one independent-held district. Democrats won all six battleground elections.
Heading into the election, Colorado had been under divided government since 2014 when Republicans took control of the state Senate. This broke the state's Democratic trifecta that first formed after the 2012 elections when Democrats won the Colorado House of Representatives after losing it to Republicans in 2010.
Democrats needed to win the state Senate to have a trifecta, while Republicans needed to win the state House and the governorship. The last Republican trifecta in Colorado lasted from 2003 to 2004. Had the Republican Party maintained control of the chamber, it would have prevented a Democratic trifecta from forming in Colorado.
Because state senators in Colorado serve four-year terms, winning candidates in this election served through 2022 and played a role in Colorado's redistricting process. Congressional district boundaries are drawn by the state legislature and subject to gubernatorial veto, while the majority and minority leaders of the state Senate are each responsible for selecting one member to sit on the eleven-member commission responsible for drawing state legislative district boundaries.
The Colorado State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. Colorado state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years. The Colorado State Senate was one of 22 state legislative battleground chambers identified by Ballotpedia in the 2018 elections. Read more below.
Colorado state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.
For more information about the Democratic primaries, click here.
For more information about the Republican primaries, click here.
The Democratic Party gained control of both chambers of the Colorado General Assembly in the 2018 election after flipping the Colorado State Senate. Both chambers of the Colorado General Assembly were identified as battleground chambers. In the state Senate, 17 out of 35 seats were up for election. Democrats gained a majority in the Colorado State Senate by gaining three net seats. Before the election, Democrats held 16 seats, Republicans held 18 seats, and an independent held one seat. Following the election, Democrats held 19 seats and Republicans held 16 seats. Two Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
The Colorado House of Representatives held elections for all 65 seats. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives increased from 36-29 to 41-24. Two Republican incumbents were defeated in the primary and two Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
Want more information?
Use the interactive map below to find your district.
Colorado State Senate General Election 2018 |
|||
|
|||
| Office | Other | ||
| District 1 |
|
|
|
| District 2 |
|
||
| District 3 |
|
John Pickerill (Libertarian Party) |
|
| District 5 |
|
|
|
| District 6 |
|
|
|
| District 7 |
|
|
|
| District 9 |
|
||
| District 11 |
|
||
| District 13 |
|
Eric Joss (Libertarian Party) |
|
| District 15 |
|
||
| District 16 |
Tim Neville (i) |
James Gilman (Libertarian Party) |
|
| District 20 |
Charles Messick (Libertarian Party) |
||
| District 22 |
|
||
| District 24 |
Donald Osborn (Libertarian Party) |
||
| District 30 |
|
Steve Peterson (Independent) |
|
| District 32 |
Peter Smith (Independent) |
||
| District 34 |
|
||
The candidate list below is based on a candidate filing list provided by the Colorado Secretary of State on May 3, 2018. The filing deadline for the March primary was on March 20, 2018. (I) denotes an incumbent.[3]
| 2018 Colorado State Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat |
Republican |
Other |
| 1 | Debra Gustafson |
Jerry Sonnenberg (I) |
|
| 2 | Beth Harz Dennis Obduskey |
Dennis Hisey Stephanie Luck |
|
| 3 | Leroy Garcia Jr. (I) |
||
| 5 | Kerry Donovan (I) |
Olen Lund |
|
| 6 | Guinn Unger Jr. |
Don Coram (I) |
|
| 7 | Chris Kennedy |
Ray Scott (I) Daniel Thurlow |
|
| 9 | Gil Armendariz |
Paul Lundeen |
|
| 11 | Pete Lee |
Pat McIntire |
|
| 13 | Phil Kelley |
John Cooke (I) |
|
| 15 | Rebecca Cranston |
Rob Woodward |
|
| 16 | Tammy Story |
Tim Neville (I) |
|
| 20 | Jessie Danielson |
Christine Jensen |
|
| 22 | Brittany Pettersen |
Tony Sanchez |
|
| 24 | Faith Winter |
Beth Martinez Humenik (I) |
|
| 30 | Julia Varnell-Sarjeant |
Chris Holbert (I) |
|
| 32 | Robert Rodriguez Zach Neumann Hazel Gibson |
Mark Calonder |
|
| 34 | Julie Gonzales Alan Kennedy-Shaffer Milo Schwab |
Gordon Alley |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our Elections Project. | |||
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Colorado State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
| Colorado State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[4] |
| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
The below map displays each seat in the Colorado State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Colorado State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| Colorado State Senate District 16 | R to D | ||
| Colorado State Senate District 20 | Independent to D | ||
| Colorado State Senate District 24 | R to D | ||
Eight incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[5] Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin J. Grantham | Senate District 2 | |
| Kent Lambert | Senate District 9 | |
| Michael Merrifield | Senate District 11 | |
| Kevin Lundberg | Senate District 15 | |
| Cheri Jahn | Senate District 20 | |
| Andrew Kerr | Senate District 22 | |
| Irene Aguilar | Senate District 32 | |
| Lucia Guzman | Senate District 34 |
Ballotpedia identified the Colorado State Senate as one of 22 battleground chambers in 2018. These were chambers that we anticipated to be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and had the potential to see significant shifts in party control.
The chamber was selected because it met the following conditions:
| Party control: 2006 - 2016 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Year: | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | |||||||||
| Winning Party: | D | D | D | D | R | R | |||||||||
| Colorado State Senate Battleground races |
|---|
| Democratic seats |
| Republican seats |
| Independent seats |
Ballotpedia identified six battleground races in the Colorado State Senate 2018 elections: three Democratic seats, two Republican seats, and one seat held by an independent. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly have led to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.
To determine state legislative battleground races in 2018, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:
Other factors could also cause a race to be classified as a battleground. For example, Ballotpedia may have considered an election to be a battleground race if an outside group or a national or state party announced that they were targeting a specific seat in order to flip it. We may have also determined a race to be a battleground if it received an unusual amount of media attention. Two additional factors were open seats and districts impacted by redistricting.
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Kerry Donovan defeated Republican Olen Lund. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2014. Incumbent Kerry Donovan (D) was first elected in 2014. She received 49.0 percent of the vote and defeated her Republican challenger by 2.3 points. A Libertarian candidate received 4.2 percent of the vote. District 5 was one of 21 Colorado Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 5 by 5.0 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 4.5 points. |
Who won this race?
| Democrat Pete Lee defeated Republican Pat McIntire. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2014. Incumbent Michael Merrifield (D) was first elected in 2014. He received 52.2 percent of the vote and defeated Republican incumbent Bernie Herpin by 10.7 points. A Libertarian candidate received 6.3 percent of the vote. District 11 was one of 21 Colorado Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 11 by 10.9 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 21.6 points. |
Who won this race?
| Democrat Tammy Story defeated incumbent Republican Tim Neville and Libertarian James Gilman. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2014 and was won by the presidential candidate of the opposite party. Incumbent Tim Neville (R) was first elected in 2014. He received 51.4 percent of the vote, defeating Democratic incumbent Jeanne Nicholson by 2.8 points. District 16 was one of 21 Colorado Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 16 by 8.6 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 2.8 points. Tammy Story announced that she would challenge Neville in 2018 and picked up support from California billionaire Tom Steyer. She was also endorsed by U.S. Reps. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) and Jared Polis (D-Colo.).[6] |
Who won this race?
| Democrat Jessie Danielson defeated Republican Christine Jensen and Libertarian Charles Messick. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| Independent |
Who were the candidates running?
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2014 and was term-limited in 2018. Incumbent Cheri Jahn (D) was first elected in 2010 and was re-elected in 2014. She received 46.8 percent of the vote in 2014 and defeated her Republican challenger by 0.6 points. A Libertarian candidate received 7.0 percent of the vote. Jahn could not run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits. In December 2017, Jahn left the Democratic Party and became an independent.[7] District 20 was one of 21 Colorado Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 20 by 8.9 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 5.7 points. Westword named this as a battleground race in January 2018.[8] |
Who won this race?
| Democrat Brittany Pettersen defeated Republican Tony Sanchez. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
Who were the candidates running?
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2014 and was term-limited in 2018. Incumbent Andy Kerr (D) was first elected in 2012 and was re-elected in 2014. He received 51.1 percent of the vote in 2014 and defeated his Republican challenger by 2.2 points. Kerr could not run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits. District 22 was one of 21 Colorado Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 22 by 8.7 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 8.2 points. |
Who won this race?
| Democrat Faith Winter defeated incumbent Republican Beth Martinez Humenik. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
Who were the candidates running?
|
|
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2014 and was won by the presidential candidate of the opposite party. Incumbent Beth Martinez Humenik (R) was first elected in 2014. She received 50.9 percent of the vote, defeating her Democratic challenger by 1.8 points. District 24 was one of 21 Colorado Senate districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 24 by 5.0 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 9.2 points. Faith Winter announced that she would challenge Humenik in 2018 and picked up support from California billionaire Tom Steyer.[6] |
The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) committed to spend $20 million on state-level races on February 8, 2018. "LCV and our affiliates will also focus resources in states like Colorado, where once again winning just one seat in the state Senate would flip the chamber to a pro-environment majority," LCV senior vice president Pete Maysmith wrote.[9]
In January 2018, Western Wire reported that California billionaire Tom Steyer was supporting Faith Winter, a Democratic state representative running against Sen. Beth Martinez Humenik (R) in District 24, and Tammy Story, a Democrat running against Sen. Tim Neville (R) in District 16.[6]
In the 2018 elections, Democrats gained a majority in the Colorado State Senate.
| Colorado State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 16 | 19 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | 16 | |
| Independent | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 35 | 35 | |
In the 2016 elections, Republicans maintained their 18-17 majority in the Colorado State Senate.
| Colorado State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 17 | 17 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | 18 | |
| Total | 35 | 35 | |
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Following the 2016 elections, Colorado was one of 19 states under divided government. Democrats controlled the governor's office and the state House while Republicans controlled the state Senate. Colorado was under Democratic trifecta control from 2007 to 2010 and 2013 to 2014. It was under Republican trifecta control from 1999 to 2000 and 2003 to 2004.
Colorado Party Control: 1992-2026
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas • Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
The Colorado State Senate has been a term-limited state Senate since Colorado voters approved Issue 5 in 1990. The affirmative vote by Colorado's electorate in Issue 5 altered Section 3 of Article V on the Colorado Constitution to say that Colorado state senators could serve no more than two four-year terms in office.
A total of 17 out of 35 seats in the Colorado State Senate were up for election in 2018. In the 2018 elections, seven senators were ineligible to run because of term limits. The following state senators were term-limited in 2018:
Democratic: (4)
Republicans (3):
Of the 87 state legislative chambers that held elections in 2018, 24 of them—12 senate chambers and 12 house chambers—included incumbents who were unable to run for re-election due to term limits.[10] In the 24 chambers affected by term limits in 2018, 1,463 seats were up for election.[11] The Nevada Senate, Arkansas House, and Arkansas Senate are impacted by term limits, but no incumbents were term-limited in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country.
A total of 271 state legislators—96 state senators and 175 state representatives—were ineligible to run in the 2018 elections because of term limits. This represented 4 percent of the 6,066 total seats up for election in November 2018.[12][13] Republicans had twice as many state legislators term-limited in 2018 than Democrats. A total of 86 Democrats were term-limited, while 177 Republicans were term-limited.
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[14] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[15] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[16] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
See statutes: Title 1, Article 4 of the Colorado Revised Statutes
There are different types of candidates in Colorado: major party candidates, minor party candidates, Qualified Political Organization (QPO) candidates, unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates. Ballot access methods differ according to the type of candidate.
There are a number of requirements that all candidates must follow. These include the following:
The qualification of any candidate may be challenged by any eligible elector within five days of the candidate qualifying for the ballot.[20]
In order to run as a major party candidate, one must have been affiliated with his or her party by the first business day in January of the year of the election, unless party rules say otherwise. The candidate must be nominated in the primary election to move on to the general election as the nominee of the party. There are two methods by which a major party can place candidates on the primary election ballot: nomination by an assembly and nomination by petition.[21][22][23]
Major parties may hold party assemblies to nominate candidates. At these assemblies, delegates vote on possible candidates and may place up to two candidates per office on the primary ballot. Delegates to party assemblies are chosen at yearly precinct caucuses. The process by which assemblies are held is determined by the individual parties.[24][25]
A major party must hold a nominating assembly no later than 73 days before the primary election. A candidate must receive 30 percent of votes cast by assembly delegates for that office. If no candidate receives 30 percent, a second vote must be taken. If no candidate receives 30 percent at the second vote, the top two vote-getters will be nominated. Within four days of the assembly, a successful candidate must file a written acceptance of candidacy with the presiding officer of the assembly. The presiding officer of the assembly must file a certificate of designation by an assembly, along with the written acceptance of candidacy, with the Colorado Secretary of State. This certificate must state the name of the political party, the name and address of each candidate, and the offices being sought. It must also certify that the candidates have been members of the political party for the required period of time.[22][26][21]
A candidate who attempted to be nominated by assembly and failed to receive at least 10 percent of the delegates' votes may not be nominated by petition for that same party.[27]
The nominating petition must be signed by eligible electors who reside in the district the candidate seeks to represent. Candidates who collect the required number of signatures are placed on the primary election ballot. The signature requirements are as follows:[27]
| Petition signature requirements for political party candidates | |
|---|---|
| Office sought | Number of signatures required |
| Member of the United States Senate or state executive official | 1,500 from each congressional district |
| Member of the Colorado State Legislature or United States House of Representatives | 1,000, or 30 percent of the votes cast in the district in the most recent primary election for the same party and the same office, whichever is less. If there was no primary election, general election numbers should be used. |
In order to run as a minor party candidate, one must have been affiliated with his or her party by the first business day in January of the year of the election, unless party rules say otherwise. Minor parties nominate their candidates for placement on the general election ballot. If there is more than one candidate nominated for a given office, those candidates are placed on the primary ballot.[28][29]
There are two methods by which minor parties can nominate candidates to be placed on the ballot.
The minor party must hold an assembly no later than 73 days before the primary election. A successful candidate must receive at least 30 percent of the delegates' votes for that office at the assembly.[29]
A minor party candidate may be nominated by petition. The petition must be signed by eligible electors in the same district the candidate seeks to represent. The signature requirements are listed in the table below.[28]
| Petition signature requirements for minor party candidates | |
|---|---|
| Office sought | Number of signatures required |
| Member of the United States Senate or state executive official | 1,000 |
| Member of the United States House of Representatives | 1,500, or 2.5 percent of the total votes cast for that office in that congressional district in the last general election, whichever is less |
| Member of the Colorado State Senate | 1,000, or 3.33 percent of the total votes cast for that office in that senate district in the last general election, whichever is less |
| Member of the Colorado House of Representatives | 1,000, or 5 percent of the total votes cast for that office in that house district in the last general election, whichever is less |
In order to run as a Qualified Political Organization (QPO) candidate, one must have been affiliated with the QPO for one year. Alternatively, if the organization has not been qualified for one year, the candidate must have been registered as unaffiliated for one year. QPO candidates must petition to be placed on the general election ballot. Each petition must include an affidavit signed under oath by the chairperson and secretary of the QPO and approved by the Colorado Secretary of State. Signature requirements are the same as those for minor party candidates, which are listed above.[28][30][31]
In order to run as an unaffiliated candidate, one must be registered as unaffiliated by the first business day in January of the year of the election. An unaffiliated candidate must petition to be placed on the general election ballot. Signature requirements are the same as those for minor party candidates, which are listed above.[28]
Write-in candidates are permitted in both the primary and general elections. A write-in candidate must file an affidavit of intent with the Colorado Secretary of State no later than the close of business on the 67th day before a primary election and the 110th day before a general election. No write-in vote will be counted unless the candidate filed an affidavit of intent.[32][33][34]
Article 5, Section 4 of the Colorado Constitution states: No person shall be a representative or senator who shall not have attained the age of twenty-five years, who shall not be a citizen of the United States, who shall not for at least twelve months next preceding his election, have resided within the territory included in the limits of the county or district in which he shall be chosen; provided, that any person who at the time of the adoption of this constitution, was a qualified elector under the territorial laws, shall be eligible to the first general assembly.
| State legislative salaries, 2025[35] | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $47,561/year for legislators whose terms began in 2025. $43,977/year for legislators whose terms began in 2023. | For legislators residing within 50 miles of the Capitol: $45/day. For legislators living more than 50 miles from the Capitol: $238/day. |
Colorado legislators assume office on the first day of the legislative session after their election. The legislative session must begin no later than 10:00 AM on the second Wednesday of January.[36] The state constitution requires the newly elected governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, treasurer, and secretary of state to take office on the second Tuesday of January.[37] In the year after those offices are elected, the legislative session must begin before the second Tuesday of January to declare the winners of those races.[38][39]
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Click here to read the full study »
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Four of 64 Colorado counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Conejos County, Colorado | 3.56% | 9.22% | 12.93% | ||||
| Huerfano County, Colorado | 6.61% | 8.27% | 11.23% | ||||
| Las Animas County, Colorado | 15.60% | 2.65% | 7.04% | ||||
| Pueblo County, Colorado | 0.50% | 13.99% | 14.97% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Colorado with 48.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 43.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Colorado voted Republican 63.3 percent of the time and Democratic 36.7 percent of the time. Colorado voted Republican in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, but voted Democratic in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections.
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Colorado. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[40][41]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 20 out of 35 state Senate districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 24.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 21 out of 35 state Senate districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 23.1 points. Clinton won five districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 15 out of 35 state Senate districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 18.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 35 state Senate districts in Colorado with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points. |
| 2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 27.92% | 69.67% | R+41.7 | 19.73% | 74.03% | R+54.3 | R |
| 2 | 36.40% | 60.75% | R+24.4 | 27.88% | 64.06% | R+36.2 | R |
| 3 | 58.31% | 39.38% | D+18.9 | 47.96% | 43.61% | D+4.4 | D |
| 4 | 33.81% | 64.51% | R+30.7 | 32.65% | 58.54% | R+25.9 | R |
| 5 | 51.04% | 46.49% | D+4.5 | 48.51% | 43.49% | D+5 | D |
| 6 | 43.94% | 53.27% | R+9.3 | 39.84% | 52.03% | R+12.2 | R |
| 7 | 32.69% | 65.08% | R+32.4 | 27.98% | 64.10% | R+36.1 | R |
| 8 | 47.48% | 50.06% | R+2.6 | 43.74% | 48.23% | R+4.5 | R |
| 9 | 28.34% | 69.73% | R+41.4 | 27.84% | 62.77% | R+34.9 | R |
| 10 | 36.38% | 60.89% | R+24.5 | 32.30% | 56.96% | R+24.7 | R |
| 11 | 59.16% | 37.56% | D+21.6 | 50.20% | 39.30% | D+10.9 | D |
| 12 | 38.68% | 58.87% | R+20.2 | 33.40% | 56.85% | R+23.5 | R |
| 13 | 47.56% | 49.70% | R+2.1 | 39.31% | 51.50% | R+12.2 | R |
| 14 | 59.50% | 37.47% | D+22 | 57.52% | 31.58% | D+25.9 | D |
| 15 | 44.84% | 52.46% | R+7.6 | 39.15% | 51.64% | R+12.5 | R |
| 16 | 50.24% | 47.48% | D+2.8 | 49.94% | 41.33% | D+8.6 | R |
| 17 | 62.27% | 35.32% | D+27 | 62.10% | 29.22% | D+32.9 | D |
| 18 | 76.45% | 21.02% | D+55.4 | 78.10% | 15.20% | D+62.9 | D |
| 19 | 52.11% | 45.25% | D+6.9 | 47.61% | 42.81% | D+4.8 | R |
| 20 | 51.62% | 45.97% | D+5.7 | 49.95% | 41.09% | D+8.9 | D |
| 21 | 64.48% | 32.71% | D+31.8 | 55.97% | 35.25% | D+20.7 | D |
| 22 | 52.95% | 44.71% | D+8.2 | 49.85% | 41.15% | D+8.7 | D |
| 23 | 44.23% | 53.42% | R+9.2 | 40.45% | 50.24% | R+9.8 | R |
| 24 | 53.34% | 44.18% | D+9.2 | 47.95% | 42.98% | D+5 | R |
| 25 | 55.19% | 42.20% | D+13 | 46.66% | 44.89% | D+1.8 | R |
| 26 | 53.44% | 44.30% | D+9.1 | 54.13% | 37.11% | D+17 | D |
| 27 | 46.87% | 51.35% | R+4.5 | 48.87% | 42.33% | D+6.5 | R |
| 28 | 57.45% | 40.30% | D+17.1 | 53.31% | 37.69% | D+15.6 | D |
| 29 | 60.24% | 37.57% | D+22.7 | 54.87% | 37.44% | D+17.4 | D |
| 30 | 38.89% | 59.70% | R+20.8 | 40.86% | 50.60% | R+9.7 | R |
| 31 | 69.75% | 28.01% | D+41.7 | 71.51% | 21.05% | D+50.5 | D |
| 32 | 68.99% | 28.72% | D+40.3 | 70.25% | 21.72% | D+48.5 | D |
| 33 | 83.89% | 14.35% | D+69.5 | 81.83% | 11.99% | D+69.8 | D |
| 34 | 77.39% | 20.14% | D+57.3 | 76.04% | 16.09% | D+60 | D |
| 35 | 45.52% | 52.02% | R+6.5 | 35.61% | 56.92% | R+21.3 | R |
| Total | 51.49% | 46.13% | D+5.4 | 48.16% | 43.25% | D+4.9 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named costatute602<ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named cocall