July 20, 2020

Welcome to the Monday, July 20, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Looking at ballot measure petition success rates in the last decade
2. 12,364 candidates have filed to run for state legislative seats
3. Don’t miss our SCOTUS wrap-up briefing

Looking at ballot measure petition success rates in the last decade

We are more than halfway through the calendar, nearing the end of the ballot measure filing cycle. As of July 1, 882 ballot initiatives and veto referendums have been filed with state officials for circulation during this year’s election cycle. That number is higher than the average of 761 filed initiatives and veto referendums for even-numbered election years from 2010 through 2018.

Initiatives and referendums have been filed in 23 of the 26 states with a statewide process. Washington, Colorado, and Missouri have the highest numbers of filings at 229, 193, and 151, respectively. California has the next highest with 46.

Twenty-nine citizen-initiated measures—24 ballot initiatives and five veto referendums—are certified for 2020 ballots. Proponents of 19 other citizen-initiated measures submitted signatures which are still being verified by state officials. 

Here’s a breakdown of how this year’s numbers compare to the last decade.

• From 2010 through 2018, an average of 761 initiatives and veto referendums were filed for even-numbered election years. 

• An average of 59 initiatives were certified during those cycles, which amounted to an average petition success rate of 7.8%. 

• In 2016 and 2018, there were over 50% more initiatives and veto referendums filed—1,069 and 947—than the median of 616 since 2010. 

• There were 76—which was a decade high—and 68 certified citizen-initiated measures in those years, respectively.

Missouri, Washington, and Colorado featured the highest average initiative filings from 2010 through 2018 with 185, 129, and 103, respectively, and average success rates of 1.7%, 3.6%, and 4.9%. California had an average of 95 initiative filings and an 11% success rate.

Learn more

       

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12,364 major-party candidates have filed to run for state legislative seats

Speaking of numbers, there are no more remaining filing deadlines for states with legislative elections in 2020. All 44 states have eclipsed their deadline, and we have complete filing data available for all of them. Let’s take a closer look. 

On November 3, voters will decide 5,875 state legislative seats—1,164 state senate seats and 4,711 state house seats—across 86 chambers in 44 states. In those states, the total number of major-party candidates is 1.5% lower in 2020. Among those candidates, 4.9% fewer Democrats and 2.3% more Republicans have filed.

12,364 major-party candidates—6,268 Democrats and 6,096 Republicans—have filed to run for state legislature in these states. This compares to 12,552—6,594 Democrats and 5,958 Republicans—in 2018.

Here are three more facts about the numbers of candidates who have filed:

• There are fewer open seats in 2020 than in 2018. In 2020, 873 major-party incumbents are not running for re-election, compared to 1,091 incumbents in 2018.

• This year, 1,007 major-party incumbents face primary challengers. In 2018, 913 incumbents faced primary challenges.

• Overall, there are fewer contested state legislative primaries in 2020 than in 2018, with 1,768 and 1,894, respectively. These totals include competitive major party primaries.

Don’t miss our SCOTUS wrap-up briefing

We’ll be holding a briefing on the Supreme Court’s 2019-2020 term this Thursday, July 23, at 11:00 AM CDT. In it, our team will be reviewing the most important aspects of the term, including the pandemic's impact, the decision trends we're seeing, and the latest data on reversal rates.

Last week, I gave you a sneak peek at some of the data points we’ll be looking at as well. Those include:

• The court issued 53 signed opinions this term. Justice Roberts and Gorsuch wrote the most opinions with seven each.

• The court issued 13 total 5-4 or 5-3 decisions—21% of the total opinions released this term. Since the 2005-2006 term, the court released the highest percentage of  5-4 opinions in 2006, at 33%. It issued the least amount of 5-4 opinions in 2015, at 5%.

• The court reversed 45 lower court decisions (67.2%) and affirmed 22. This term's reversal rate was 2.9 percentage points lower than the average rate of reversal since 2007 (70.1%).

Click here to reserve your spot. 

Can’t make it at the scheduled time? Don’t worry—we’ll send you a link to the recording after the webinar concludes.