May 19, 2022

Welcome to the Thursday, May 19, Brew. 

By: David Luchs

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. A look at this week’s battleground primary results
2. The latest on redistricting in Florida, Kansas, and New York
3. Candidate Connections update—More from state legislative candidates in Georgia

A look at this week’s battleground primary results

Elections took place in at least eight states on Tuesday, including statewide primaries in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Here’s a look at some noteworthy results in battleground races:

U.S. Senate

• Ted Budd wins GOP nomination in North Carolina: Ted Budd defeated 13 other candidates to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in North Carolina. Budd, a U.S. representative running with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump (R), had 59% of the vote. Pat McCrory (R), a former governor, had 25%. 
• John Fetterman wins Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) beat three other candidates to win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania. Fetterman had 59% of the vote to Conor Lamb’s (D) 26%. As of writing, the Republican primary remained too close to call, with Mehmet Oz (R) and David McCormick (R) each at 31% of the vote and within the threshold required to prompt an automatic recount. 

State executives

• Brad Little wins re-nomination as governor of Idaho: Idaho Gov. Brad Little defeated Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin and six others to win the Republican nomination for a second term. Little had 61% of the vote to McGeachin’s 25%. On two occasions in 2021, McGeachin issued executive orders related to Idaho’s response to COVID-19 in her capacity as acting governor while Little was out of state. Both times, Little rescinded McGeachin’s order upon returning to the state.
• Tina Kotek wins Democratic nomination for Oregon governor: Tina Kotek (D), a former speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, defeated 14 other candidates to win the Democratic nomination for governor. She had 56% of the vote to Tobias Read’s 34%. 
• Doug Mastriano wins Republican nomination for Pennsylvania governor: Doug Mastriano (R) defeated eight other candidates to win the Republican nomination for governor of Pennsylvania. Mastriano, a state senator running with former President Trump’s endorsement, had 42% of the vote. 

U.S. House

• Madison Cawthorn loses re-nomination: Chuck Edwards (R) defeated seven other candidates, including incumbent Madison Cawthorn (R), to win the Republican nomination in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District. Cawthorn, who was first elected in 2020, was endorsed by former President Donald Trump (R). Edwards had an endorsement from U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis (R). Cawthorn is the third member of the U.S. House to lose renomination this cycle, alongside Bob Gibbs (R) and David McKinley (R). As of writing, a fourth incumbent, Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), appeared to be losing renomination to challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) 38% to 61%. At this point in the 2020 cycle, one U.S. House incumbent, Dan Lipinski (D), had lost renomination. 

State legislators

• Eleven incumbents lose renomination: At least eleven incumbent state legislators lost primaries on Tuesday, with 92 more competing in races that are too close to call. Eight of the defeated incumbents were Republicans, including four members of the Kentucky House of Representatives, three members of the North Carolina House of Representatives, and one member of the North Carolina State Senate. The three defeated Democratic incumbents included two members of the North Carolina State Senate and one member of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives.
• This brings the total number of state legislative incumbents defeated this year to 25, with that number likely to grow. Across the nine states that have held primaries, 2.7% of incumbents running for re-election have lost.

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The latest on redistricting in Florida, Kansas, and New York

Thirty-nine states have adopted new congressional district maps following the 2020 census. Three states’ maps have been overturned by court action and two states have yet to adopt new maps. The six remaining states were apportioned a single district, meaning no congressional redistricting was necessary. 

Here’s the latest on the court challenges to the Florida, Kansas, and New York maps: 

Florida

On May 12, Leon County Circuit Court Judge Layne Smith ruled that the congressional district boundaries that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signed into law on April 22 were unconstitutional. In his opinion, Smith wrote that the enacted plan “would diminish the ability of Black voters to elect their candidate of choice in North Florida,” specifically in the state's current Fifth Congressional District.

Smith ordered Florida to use a revised congressional map for the 2022 elections that the legislature had previously proposed that restores a version of the Fifth Congressional District.

Florida was apportioned 28 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, one more than it was apportioned after the 2010 census. Candidates have until June 17 to file for Florida’s U.S. House primaries, which are scheduled to take place August 23.

Kansas

On May 18, the Kansas Supreme Court overturned a district court's ruling that found that the state's enacted congressional district boundaries were unconstitutional. Justice Caleb Stegall wrote for the court, "A majority of the court holds that, on the record before us, plaintiffs have not prevailed on their claims that Substitute for Senate Bill 355 violates the Kansas Constitution."

Wyandotte County District Court Judge Bill Klapper had struck down Kansas' enacted congressional map on April 25. 

Kansas enacted congressional district boundaries on Feb. 9 when both the state House and Senate overrode Gov. Laura Kelly's (D) veto of a redistricting plan that the legislature passed. Across both chambers, all but one House Republican voted to override Kelly's veto and all Democrats voted to sustain her veto.  

Kansas was apportioned four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2020 census, the same number it received after the 2010 census. The filing deadline for ballot-qualified parties in Kansas is June 1, and primaries are scheduled for Aug. 2.

New York

On May 16, court-appointed special master Jonathan Cervas released draft congressional district boundaries for New York. The New York Court of Appeals—the state's highest court—ruled on April 27 that the state government had not followed proper constitutional procedure in enacting the maps. The court also found that the congressional plan was drawn with unconstitutional partisan intent. The special master was appointed by Steuben County Surrogate’s Court Judge Patrick McAllister, who must approve the final plan.

New York was apportioned 26 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, one less than it was apportioned after the 2010 census.

Bloomberg Government’s Keshia Clukey and Greg Giroux wrote that “Under the Cervas proposal, Democratic candidates would have an edge in 16 of 26 New York congressional districts, down from 22 Democratic-leaning seats in the version struck down as a gerrymander. Three congressional districts would be Republican leaning, and the map creates seven seats with smaller partisan divides.”

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Candidate Connections update—More from state legislative candidates in Georgia

Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey asks candidates for federal, state, and local office to share what motivates them on a personal and political level.

As of May 17, 2022, we’re covering 75 races with final candidate lists in which all candidates have completed the survey. Twelve races reached that milestone in the past week.

What’s new this week

Kevin Grindlay and Shawn Still are the two candidates on the ballot in the Republican primary for Georgia State Senate District 48, located northeast of Atlanta. Located northeast of Atlanta, the district’s current representative is Michelle Au (D), who is running for state House this year. In the 2020 election, Au defeated Matt Reeves (R) 56% to 44%.

Here’s how Grindlay and Still answered the question, “Who do you look up to? Whose example would you like to follow, and why?”

Grindlay: “Jesus. In terms of the political realm: Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Marjorie Taylor Green, Matt Gaetz, etc. At the state level, Mark Finchem, Doug Mastriano, Wendy Rogers, etc.”

Still: “I look up to my uncle, Rick Still, Sen. Bruce Thompson, and GA GOP Chairman David Shafer. Throughout my life, my Mother was my hero.

A leader whose example I greatly admire is Dwight D. Eisenhower. He helped create the concept of 'modern Republicanism' that helped the party attract more swing voters and solidify our base. He expanded Social Security and prioritized a balanced budget over tax cuts. He put tens of thousands of soldiers returning home from war to work by creating the Interstate Highway System, the largest non-military job program in our history.”

About Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey

Some other details about the 75 races where all candidates have completed the survey:

• They are located in 24 states.
• Sixteen of the 75 races are taking place in Texas.
• Eleven of the 75 races are general elections, including one runoff.
• Of the 64 primaries and primary runoffs, 34 are for the Democratic nomination, 26 are for the Republican nomination, three are top-two primaries, and one is nonpartisan.
• Twenty-five of the 75 races are for U.S. House.

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