May 7, 2020

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May 7, 2020[edit]

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Today's Brew looks at stay-at-home orders by state + an analysis of federal judges appointed per president since 1980  
The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Thursday, May 7, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
  1. A look at expiring statewide stay-at-home orders
  2. Trump has appointed second-highest number of federal judges through May 1 of a president's fourth year
  3. Local roundup: One incumbent defeated in Ohio's 2020 state-level primaries
Updates on stories related to the coronavirus outbreak are current through Wednesday afternoon. Click here for the latest news.

A look at expiring statewide stay-at-home orders

States and cities have begun to reopen after weeks of shutdown due to the coronavirus. We’ve been tracking and analyzing the plans to reopen put forth by states and localities. Today we’re looking at expiring stay-at-home orders.

Although the orders vary from state to state, they contain at least two common elements: requiring residents to stay home except for essential trips or outdoor exercise and closing of what the state deems nonessential businesses.

Governors in 43 states have issued statewide stay-at-home orders. Here’s where those orders stand:

  • 15 stay-at-home orders have expired
  • 21 stay-at-home orders are scheduled to expire this month
  • One stay-at-home order is scheduled to expire in June
  • Six stay-at-home orders do not have a scheduled expiration date

Of the 26 states with Republican governors:

  • Seven did not issue stay-at-home orders
  • 12 issued stay-at-home orders that have expired
  • Five issued stay-at-home orders that are scheduled to expire this month
  • Two issued stay-at-home orders with no scheduled expiration date

Of the 24 states with Democratic governors:

  • Three issued stay-at-home orders that have expired
  • 16 issued stay-at-home orders that are scheduled to expire this month
  • One issued a stay-at-home order set to expire in June
  • Four issued stay-at-home orders with no scheduled expiration date

The earliest stay-at-home orders to expire were those in Colorado and Montana, which expired April 26. Both states have Democratic governors. The earliest Republican-issued stay-at-home orders to expire were those in Mississippi and Alaska, which expired April 27.

The stay-at-home order with the latest expiration date is Virginia's, which does not expire until June 10. The latest expiration date for a Republican-issued stay-at-home order is New Hampshire's, set to expire May 31.

Including only those stay-at-home orders with a specific expiration date, the average Democratic-issued stay-at-home order expires May 17, while the average Republican-issued order expires today, May 7. The overall average is May 12.

Here are some other notable coronavirus-related updates since Wednesday's Brew:

  • Maryland Superintendent of Schools Karen Salmon announced that schools in the state would be closed to in-person instruction for the rest of the academic year. Online and distance learning will continue for students, however. Gov. Larry Hogan (R) first ordered schools closed on March 12.
  • Judge Analisa Torres of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York ordered the New York State Board of Elections to reinstate its Democratic presidential preference primary on June 23, which the board had previously canceled. The order came as the result of a lawsuit filed on April 28, by Andrew Yang, a former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, and several candidates for New York's delegation to the Democratic National Convention.
  • The United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit ruled that a district court judge who ordered modifications to Michigan's candidate filing procedures had erred in doing so.
  • The Washington, D.C. Council passed a bill that made changes to the petition process for 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. The legislation allowed for the electronic distribution and electronic return of scanned petition sheets, which need to be physically signed.
  • Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) lifted an April 4 order that restricted hotels and short-term rentals to authorized guests, including essential workers. The order was enacted to discourage recreational travel into Arkansas.
  • The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court released a report stating that 993 inmates had been released from the state’s prison and jails since April 3, though the report does not make it clear how many inmates were released because of the pandemic or how many were released due to their sentences ending.
     
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Trump has appointed second-highest number of federal judges through May 1 of a president's fourth year

President Trump has appointed 193 Senate-confirmed Article III federal judges through May 1—the second-highest number through the same point in the seven presidencies since 1980. Jimmy Carter (D) appointed the most during that time period, with 208 Senate-confirmed judges at this point in his term.

The table below details the number of federal judges appointed over time for presidents Jimmy Carter through Donald Trump.



 

The average number of federal judges appointed by a president through May 1 of their fourth year in office is 170. Here’s a breakdown of those figures based on the three major federal court types.

  • SCOTUS: The median number of Supreme Court justices appointed is two. Along with President Trump, Presidents Barack Obama (D), Bill Clinton (D), and George H.W. Bush (R) had each appointed two Supreme Court justices at this point in their first terms. Ronald Reagan (R) had appointed one, while Carter and George W. Bush (R) had not appointed any.
     
  • Appeals Courts: The median number of United States Court of Appeals appointees is 30. Trump has appointed the most with 51, while Reagan appointed the least with 25. Trump’s 51 appointments make up 28% of the total 179 judgeships across the courts of appeal.
     
  • District Courts: The median number of United States District Court appointees is 138. Carter appointed the most with 158, and Reagan appointed the fewest with 109. Trump has appointed 138 district court judges. Those appointments make up 20% of the 677 judgeships across the district courts.

Article III federal judges are appointed for life terms by the president of the United States and confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Article III judges include judges on the: Supreme Court of the United States, U.S. courts of appeal, U.S. district courts, and the Court of International Trade.

Local Roundup: One incumbent defeated in Ohio's state-level primaries

Out of the 109 state-level incumbents who filed for re-election in Ohio this year, state Rep. Jeffrey Todd Smith (R) was the only incumbent defeated in a primary. Smith filed for re-election in December 2019 but announced in January that he would withdraw from the race. His name remained on the primary ballot. One incumbent lost in the primary elections in both 2018 and 2016.

This year’s April 28 primary was held largely by mail. There are 244,061 outstanding absentee and provisional ballots as of May 1, so results are unofficial.

There were 40 contested primaries this year for seats in the Ohio legislature. This represents a 35.5% decrease in the number of contested primaries in 2018 (62) and the fewest contested primaries in the state since 2012 (35). In 2020, this breaks down as follows:

  • 9 state Senate primaries
  • 31 state House primaries
  • 17 Democratic primaries
  • 23 Republican primaries

On the national level, our elections team recently updated an analysis of the number of candidates who filed to run for the state legislature. In the 27 states where filing deadlines have passed:

  • There are fewer open seats and contested primaries in 2020 compared to 2018.
  • More incumbents are facing primary challenges this year.

The table below provides an overview of the data we have so far and how it compares to 2018.


This table displays the number of open seats, incumbents facing primaries, and total contested primaries in both 2018 and 2020.

 

On November 3, 1,164 state senate seats and 4,711 state house seats are up for regular election across 86 chambers in 44 states. There is a Republican majority in 52 chambers, a Democratic majority in 33, and a power-sharing agreement in the Alaska House.



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