October 8, 2018

Welcome to the Monday, October 8 Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Arizona state spotlight
2. Nebraska state spotlight
3. Massachusetts Health Policy Commission finds Question 1 would cost $676 to $949 million annually

Arizona: The Grand Canyon State

Arizona is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, nine U.S. House seats, governor and six other state executive positions, all 30 state Senate seats, and all 60 state House seats. Two state Supreme Court justices and four state appellate court judges are standing for retention. Ballotpedia is also covering local elections in Maricopa County as well as six cities and 43 school districts. Five statewide ballot measures are also on the ballot, along with multiple local ballot measures.

What is the partisan balance in the state?

Congress: Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats and five U.S. House seats. Democrats hold the other four U.S. House seats.

Governor: Republican.

Lt. Governor: Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor.

Attorney General: Republican.

State Senate: 17-13 Republican majority.

State House: 35-25 Republican majority.

Races to watch

• U.S. Senate election in Arizona: U.S. Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSally (R) are running for the office held by retiring incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R). The seat is rated a toss-up. The election is competitive due to it being an open race, the state’s growing Latino population, and President Donald Trump’s (R) 4-point margin of victory in 2016. The last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona was Dennis DeConcini in 1988.

• Arizona gubernatorial election: Incumbent Gov. Doug Ducey (R) faces Arizona State University professor David Garcia (D) and Angel Torres (G). Education is a major issue in the race. The state passed a bill raising teacher pay immediately following a week-long teacher strike that ended in May 2018.

• Arizona Secretary of State election: State Sen. Katie Hobbs (D) is facing business owner Steve Gaynor (R). Gaynor is campaigning on preserving and strengthening Arizona’s requirement for proof of citizenship to vote. Hobbs says she will fight against such ID measures.

• Arizona’s 1st Congressional District: Incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) faces home inspector Wendy Rogers (R). The 1st District is one of 13 districts that voted for both President Trump (R) and a Democratic representative (O’Halleran) in the 2016 election. O’Halleran won the district by 7 points in 2016, and Trump won by 1 point.

• Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District: Former U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) faces Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO Lea Marquez Peterson (R) in the election for this swing seat. The seat is open as a result of Rep. Martha McSally’s run for the U.S. Senate. The 2nd District is one of 25 Republican-held districts won by Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election.

What you need to know if you’re an Arizona voter

Early voting dates: October 10 to November 2.

Polls open/close: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Voter ID: A voter must present some form of identification at the polls. The identification does not need to include a photo.

Bookmark your sample ballot.

Learn more

       

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Nebraska: Nebraska Nice

Nebraska is holding elections for one U.S. Senate seat, three U.S. House seats, governor and eight other state executive positions, and 24 of the 49 state Senate positions. One retention election for the state Supreme Court is on the ballot. One statewide ballot measure will appear on the ballot. Ballotpedia will also cover local elections in Douglas and Lancaster counties as well as school board races in six of the state’s public school districts.

What is the partisan balance in the state?

Congress: Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats and all three U.S. House seats.

Governor: Republican.

Lt. Governor: Republican.

Attorney General: Republican.

State Legislature: Nebraska has a unicameral legislature with 49 nonpartisan state senators. Of those senators, 30 identify as Republican, 16 as Democratic, one as Libertarian, and one as independent. There is one vacancy.

Races to watch

• Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District: Incumbent Don Bacon (R) faces Metropolitan Community College Board of Governors member Kara Eastman (D) in Bacon’s bid for a second term. This swing district backed Donald Trump (R) by 2 percentage points in 2016, Mitt Romney (R) by 7 percentage points in 2012, and Barack Obama (D) by 1 percentage point in 2008.

• Nebraska Governor: Incumbent Pete Ricketts (R) faces state Sen. Bob Krist (D). Krist, a former Republican, left the party to launch an independent gubernatorial bid in September 2017 before joining the Democratic Party in February 2018. Nebraskans have not elected a Democratic governor since 1994.

What you need to know if you’re a Nebraska voter

Early voting dates: October 1 to November 5 if voting by mail, October 9 to November 5 if voting in person.

Polls open/close: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (CST) and 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (MST)

Voter ID: Not required.

Bookmark your sample ballot.

Voters in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Washington have questions relating to energy use and conservation before them this year. Find out what trends our ballot measure experts have been following and which groups are involved with these measures in our free webinar happening tomorrow.

Register today→

Massachusetts Health Policy Commission finds Question 1 would cost $676 to $949 million annually

The Massachusetts Health Policy Commission (HPC) released a report last week analyzing the potential cost of implementing Question 1, which would establish patient assignment limits for registered nurses working in hospitals.

The report was led by David Auerbach, Ph.D., health economist and director for research and cost trends at the HPC, and Joanne Spetz, Ph.D., a professor at the Institute for Health Policy Studies at the University of California.

Some key findings from the HPC’s report are as follows:

• Mandated nurse staffing ratios under Question 1 would result in annual increased costs of $676 to $949 million once fully implemented.

  • These costs could also lead to higher commercial prices for hospital care and higher insurance premiums.

• Hospitals would need to hire between 2,286 and 3,101 additional full-time equivalent registered nurses (FTE RNs).

  • The required increase of RN hospital staff would likely increase the demand for RNs in Massachusetts, leading to an increase in RN earnings over time.

• There would be an estimated potential savings of $34 to $47 million with the hiring of additional RNs due to savings from reduced length of hospital stays and reduced adverse events. (In other words, savings would amount to about $15,000 per additional FTE RN hired.)

A spokesman for the Coalition to Protect Patient Safety, opponents of Question 1, said, “The Health Policy Commission’s analysis confirms that the negative consequences are too great and the costs are too high for rigid, government-mandated nurse staffing ratios in the Commonwealth.”

The executive director of the Massachusetts Nurses Association, supporters of Question 1, said, “This guess on costs by the HPC is irresponsible and inconsistent and resembles nothing that the HPC has ever done before. This estimates a cost of $300,000 per nurse (full-time equivalent), per year, and — like the inflated numbers distributed by hospital executives — there is no independent data source or transparency in these cost estimates.”