Reverse-Pivot Counties
Topic: Election results, 2020
From Ballotpedia - Reading time: 18 min
| 2020 Election Analysis: Pivot Counties |
|---|
 |
Retained • Boomerang Margins of victory Voter turnout Demographics |
Pivot Counties are the 206 counties nationwide Ballotpedia identified as having voted for Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.
Reverse-Pivot Counties are the six counties nationwide that had the opposite pattern, voting for Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 after voting for John McCain (R) in 2008 and Mitt Romney (R) in 2012.[1][2]
In 2020, all six Reverse-Pivot Counties again voted for the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden (D). Since 2008, margins of victory in Reverse-Pivot Counties have shifted, on average, 20.18 percentage points from Republican to Democrat.
The six Reverse Pivot-Counties have a median population of 785,915. They are all located in or near the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles (1), Atlanta (3), Baltimore (1), and Houston (1). Voter turnout in these counties was 76.05%, 6.75 percentage points higher than the national rate of 69.30%. Collectively, the number of votes cast in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties (4,015,613) represented 2.6% of all votes cast in the 2020 presidential election.
On this page, you will find:
- Key terms
- List of Reverse-Pivot Counties
- Margin of victory analysis
- Demographics of Reverse-Pivot Counties
- Voter turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties
- Reverse-Pivot Counties by legislative district
Key terms[edit]
Ballotpedia uses the following terms when discussing Reverse-Pivot Counties and Pivot Counties. Following the 2020 presidential election, Pivot Counties were further differentiated based on whether they voted again for Trump (Retained Pivot Counties) or flipped to vote for Biden (Boomerang Pivot Counties). Categories are shown on the table below based on the presidential election results from 2008 to 2020.
| Pivot County definitions by presidential election voting pattern, 2008-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Term | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | |||
| Reverse-Pivot County |
McCain | Romney | Clinton | Biden | |||
| Retained Pivot County |
Obama | Obama | Trump | Trump | |||
| Boomerang Pivot County |
Obama | Obama | Trump | Biden | |||
List of Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]
- See also: Presidential election, 2020
The table below lists the 2020 presidential election results in each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties. It also includes historical margins of victory. In 2008 and 2012, these counties voted for the Republican presidential candidate. In 2016 and 2020, they voted for the Democratic candidate. Percentages and percentage points are the upper values with numerical vote totals and margins included in parentheses below.
| List of Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | State | Election results, 2020 | Margins of victory | ||||
| Biden | Trump | 2020 | 2016 | 2012 | 2008 | ||
| Orange County | California | 53.48% (814,009) |
44.44% (676,498) |
+9.03 (137,511) |
+8.59 (102,813) |
+6.23 (69,892) |
+2.56 (29,506) |
| Cobb County | Georgia | 56.35% (221,847) |
42.02% (165,436) |
+14.33 (56,411) |
+2.16 (7,209) |
+12.45 (38,598) |
+9.43 (29,741) |
| Gwinnett County | Georgia | 58.45% (241,994) |
40.19% (166,400) |
+18.26 (75,594) |
+5.79 (19,164) |
+9.22 (27,346) |
+10.24 (29,721) |
| Henry County | Georgia | 59.71% (73,443) |
39.24% (48,259) |
+20.48 (25,184) |
+4.36 (4,333) |
+3.30 (3,013) |
+7.46 (6,590) |
| Anne Arundel County | Maryland | 55.82% (172,823) |
41.28% (127,821) |
+14.53 (45,002) |
+2.23 (6,016) |
+0.08 (197) |
+1.80 (4,667) |
| Fort Bend County | Texas | 54.70% (195,552) |
44.12% (157,718) |
+10.58 (37,834) |
+6.64 (17,395) |
+6.83 (14,982) |
+2.39 (4,838) |
The map below shows the Reverse-Pivot Counties. The function in the bottom right corner can be used to zoom in more closely.
Margin of victory analysis[edit]
Overall, Biden had a larger margin of victory in each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties compared to Clinton's results in 2016, continuing a shift towards Democrats.
The table below shows a comparison of the average 2020 margins of victory in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties with historical margins in the same counties from 2008 to 2016. The first column shows Biden's performance in 2020 followed by Clinton's in 2016, Romney's in 2012, and McCain's in 2008.
| Average margins of victory in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties as percentage points | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 (McCain) |
2012 (Romney) |
2016 (Clinton) |
2020 (Biden) | |||
| +5.64 | +6.35 | +4.96 | +14.54 | |||
Margin change since 2008[edit]
Since 2008, when McCain won these counties, margins of victory have shifted 20.18 percentage points from Republicans to Democrats, on average. Gwinnett County, Georgia, had the largest such change from R+10.24 in 2008 to D+18.26 in 2020, a shift of 28.50 percentage points. Orange County, California, had the smallest change from R+2.56 in 2008 to D+9.03 in 2020, a shift of 11.59 percentage points. The chart below shows the difference between 2008 and 2020 margins of victory in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties.
Presidential battelground states[edit]
See also: Presidential battleground states, 2020
Four Reverse-Pivot Counties were located in two states identified by Ballotpedia as presidential battlegrounds during the 2020 election: Georgia (3) and Texas (1). Battleground states are states that have split support for Democratic and Republican candidates in recent presidential election cycles.
In order to conduct this analysis, vote totals for all counties in a state were taken into consideration. This includes totals in Reverse, Retained, and Boomerang Pivot Counties. The remaining counties in these states were categorized as follows:
- Solid Democratic: voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 2008
- Solid Republican: voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 2008
- Other: voted in some other pattern than those described above
Georgia[edit]
- See also: Presidential election in Georgia, 2020
In 2020, Georgia had five Retained Pivot Counties, three Reverse-Pivot Counties, 27 solid Democratic counties, 123 solid Republican counties , and one county with a different voting pattern.
Biden won Georgia in 2020 by 0.2 percentage points. He saw a margin change of 5.3 percentage points compared to 2016, flipping the state which had previously voted for Trump. Biden's largest margin change came in the three Reverse-Pivot Counties—Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry—which he won by 16.9 percentage points compared to 4.0 in 2016, a 12.9 point shift. Biden also expanded the margin in Solid Democratic counties and narrowed Trump's margin in Solid Republican counties. Trump expanded his margin in the state's Retained Pivot Counties and in the one county with a different voting pattern.
The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.
| Georgia presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | # | 2016 | 2020 | Percentage point change | |||||||||
| Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin | ||
| Retained | 5 | 47.5% | 50.8% | 1.7% | R+3.3 | 46.4% | 52.8% | 0.8% | R+6.4 | -1.1 | +1.9 | -0.8 | R+3.1 |
| Reverse | 3 | 49.2% | 45.2% | 5.5% | D+4.0 | 57.7% | 40.8% | 1.4% | D+16.9 | +8.5 | -4.4 | -4.1 | D+12.9 |
| Solid Dem. | 27 | 67.1% | 28.6% | 4.3% | D+38.5 | 71.2% | 27.6% | 1.2% | D+43.6 | +4.1 | -1.0 | -3.2 | D+5.1 |
| Solid Repub. | 123 | 26.5% | 69.9% | 3.6% | R+43.3 | 29.8% | 68.9% | 1.2% | R+39.1 | +3.3 | -0.9 | -2.4 | D+4.3 |
| Other | 1 | 50.6% | 48.0% | 1.4% | D+2.6 | 48.8% | 50.5% | 0.7% | R+1.8 | -1.8 | +2.5 | -0.7 | R+4.4 |
| All | 159 | 45.3% | 50.4% | 4.2% | R+5.1 | 49.5% | 49.3% | 1.2% | D+0.2 | +4.1 | -1.2 | -3.0 | D+5.3 |
| Georgia presidential election vote totals by county category, 2016-2020 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | # | 2016 | 2020 | Change | |||||||||
| Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin | ||
| Retained | 5 | 10,054 | 10,749 | 351 | R+695 | 11,026 | 12,536 | 201 | R+1,510 | +972 | +1,787 | -150 | R+815 |
| Reverse | 3 | 376,331 | 345,625 | 42,419 | D+30,706 | 537,284 | 380,095 | 13,370 | D+157,189 | +160,953 | +34,470 | -29,049 | D+126,483 |
| Solid Dem. | 27 | 990,797 | 421,805 | 63,851 | D+568,992 | 1,233,142 | 477,751 | 20,198 | D+755,391 | +242,345 | +55,946 | -43,653 | D+186,399 |
| Solid Repub. | 123 | 496,050 | 1,306,434 | 67,628 | R+810,384 | 686,973 | 1,586,072 | 28,385 | R+899,099 | +190,923 | +279,638 | -39,243 | R+88,715 |
| Other | 1 | 4731 | 4491 | 129 | D+240 | 5208 | 5400 | 75 | R+192 | +477 | +909 | -54 | R+432 |
| All | 159 | 1,877,963 | 2,089,104 | 174,378 | R+211,141 | 2,473,633 | 2,461,854 | 62,229 | D+11,779 | +595,670 | +372,750 | -112,149 | D+222,920 |
For Biden, 40.7% of his new votes in 2020 came from Solid Democratic counties followed by Solid Republican counties with 32.1%. For Trump, 75.0% of his new votes in 2020 came from Solid Republican counties followed by Solid Democratic counties at 15.0%. Reverse-Pivot Counties accounted for 27.0% of Biden's new votes compared to 9.2% for Trump.
Retained Pivot Counties accounted for 0.4% of Biden's vote totals and 0.5% of Trump's. Reverse-Pivot Counties accounted for 21.7% of Biden's vote total and 15.4% of Trump's.
The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.
| Percentage of votes by county category in Georgia's 2016 and 2020 presidential elections | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | # | 2016 | 2020 | New votes, 2020 | ||||||
| Clinton | Trump | Biden | Trump | Democratic votes |
Republican votes | |||||
| Total votes | 159 | 1,877,963 | 2,089,104 | 2,473,633 | 2,461,854 | +595,670 | +372,750 | |||
| Retained | 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | |||
| Reverse | 3 | 20.0% | 16.5% | 21.7% | 15.4% | 27.0% | 9.2% | |||
| Solid Dem. | 27 | 52.8% | 20.2% | 49.9% | 19.4% | 40.7% | 15.0% | |||
| Solid Repub. | 123 | 26.4% | 62.5% | 27.8% | 64.4% | 32.1% | 75.0% | |||
| Other | 1 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |||
Texas[edit]
- See also: Presidential election in Texas, 2020
In 2020, Texas had one Retained Pivot County, one Reverse-Pivot County, 18 solid Democratic counties, 223 solid Republican counties, and 11 counties that had a different voting pattern.
Trump received 52.1% of the statewide vote, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from his 2016 results. Biden received 46.5% of the statewide vote, a 3.3 point increase from Clinton's 43.2% in 2016. Overall, Biden narrowed Trump's margin by 3.4 percentage points in 2020.
Trump increased his vote share in the one Retained Pivot County by 1.3 percentage points and in Solid Democratic counties by 1.7 points. His vote share decreased in all other county categories.
Biden's vote share increased in all county categories. His largest margin change—+8.4 percentage points—came from the 11 counties with different voting patterns than Solid and Pivot Counties. Eight of these counties flipped to Trump and three flipped to Biden.
The table below compares margins in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Percentages show the share of the vote received by a candidate. Margins and changes are shown as changes in percentage points. The overall winner of a given category can be found under the "2020" data. The "Percentage point change" section shows changes in vote share and in margins. Figures were calculated by combining the vote totals across all counties of a given category and may not equal 100% due to rounding. Click [show] beneath the table to view vote totals.
| Texas presidential election results by county category, 2016-2020 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | # | 2016 | 2020 | Percentage point change | |||||||||
| Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin | ||
| Retained | 1 | 48.4% | 48.9% | 2.6% | R+0.5 | 48.6% | 50.2% | 1.2% | R+1.6 | +0.2 | +1.3 | -1.5 | R+1.1 |
| Reverse | 1 | 51.4% | 44.8% | 3.8% | D+6.6 | 54.7% | 44.1% | 1.2% | D+10.6 | +3.3 | -0.7 | -2.6 | D+4.0 |
| Solid Dem. | 18 | 59.3% | 35.9% | 4.8% | D+23.3 | 61.0% | 37.6% | 1.5% | D+23.4 | +1.7 | +1.6 | -3.3 | D+0.1 |
| Solid Repub. | 223 | 27.3% | 68.6% | 4.1% | R+41.4 | 31.2% | 67.4% | 1.4% | R+36.2 | +3.9 | -1.2 | -2.7 | D+5.2 |
| Other | 11 | 43.5% | 50.9% | 5.6% | R+7.4 | 49.6% | 48.6% | 1.7% | D+1.0 | +6.1 | -2.3 | -3.9 | D+8.4 |
| All | 254 | 43.2% | 52.2% | 4.5% | R+9.0 | 46.5% | 52.1% | 1.5% | R+5.6 | +3.3 | -0.1 | -3.0 | D+3.4 |
| Texas presidential election vote totals by county category, 2016-2020 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | # | 2016 | 2020 | Change | |||||||||
| Clinton | Trump | Third party | Margin | Biden | Trump | Third party | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Third party | Margin | ||
| Retained | 1 | 42,443 | 42,862 | 2,313 | R+419 | 46,073 | 47,570 | 1,116 | R+1,497 | +3,630 | +4,708 | -1,197 | R+1,078 |
| Reverse | 1 | 134,686 | 117,291 | 10,089 | D+17,395 | 195,552 | 157,718 | 4,244 | D+37,834 | +60,866 | +40,427 | -5,845 | D+20,439 |
| Solid Dem. | 18 | 2,201,349 | 1,334,561 | 178,871 | D+866,788 | 2,846,123 | 1,753,302 | 69,593 | D+1,092,821 | +644,774 | +418,741 | -109,278 | D+226,033 |
| Solid Repub. | 223 | 1,067,538 | 2,685,476 | 159,509 | R+1,617,938 | 1,531,528 | 3,304,794 | 68,461 | R+1,773,266 | +463,990 | +619,318 | -91,048 | R+155,328 |
| Other | 11 | 431852 | 504857 | 55529 | R+73,005 | 639850 | 626963 | 22169 | D+12,887 | +207,998 | +122,106 | -33,360 | D+85,892 |
| All | 254 | 3,877,868 | 4,685,047 | 406,311 | R+807,179 | 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 | 165,583 | R+631,221 | +1,381,258 | +1,205,300 | -240,728 | D+175,958 |
Solid Republican counties made up 51.4% of Trump's new votes in 2020 and Solid Democratic counties made up 46.7% of Biden's.
The one Retained Pivot County accounted for 0.4% and 0.3% of Trump's and Biden's respective vote total. Trump received 2.7% of his vote total from the one Reverse-Pivot County, which also made up 3.7% of Biden's total.
The table below shows how much of a candidate's vote total came from a particular county category. Data under "New votes, 2020" shows the percentage of a candidate's new votes by county category compared to 2016 vote totals.
| Percentage of votes by county category in Texas' 2016 and 2020 presidential elections | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | # | 2016 | 2020 | New votes, 2020 | ||||||
| Clinton | Trump | Biden | Trump | Democratic votes |
Republican votes | |||||
| Total votes | 254 | 3,877,868 | 4,685,047 | 5,259,126 | 5,890,347 | +1,381,258 | +1,205,300 | |||
| Retained | 1 | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |||
| Reverse | 1 | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | |||
| Solid Dem. | 18 | 56.8% | 28.5% | 54.1% | 29.8% | 46.7% | 34.7% | |||
| Solid Repub. | 223 | 27.5% | 57.3% | 29.1% | 56.1% | 33.6% | 51.4% | |||
| Other | 11 | 11.1% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 15.1% | 10.1% | |||
Demographics of Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]
- See also: Demographics of the 206 Pivot Counties
Overview[edit]
The six Reverse Pivot-Counties have a median population of 785,915. They are all located in or near the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles (1), Atlanta (3), Baltimore (1), and Houston (1).
On average, Reverse-Pivot Counties tend to have smaller non-Hispanic white and larger Black and Asian populations compared to the nationwide averages. Economically, Reverse-Pivot Counties tend to have higher median household incomes and lower rates of persons in poverty compared to nationwide averages.
Demographics[edit]
The tables below show 2020 demographic data for Reverse-Pivot Counties compared to nationwide averages. Tables for individual counties show county averages compared to nationwide and statewide averages.[3]
- United States: national averages.[4]
- Average: an average of demographic numbers or percentages across each of the Reverse-Pivot Counties. This value is not a calculation of demographics across the populations of these counties.
- # of ... above: the number of Pivot Counties, Retained or Boomerang, with a higher number or percentage than the national average.
Reverse-Pivot Counties are larger than both Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties with an average estimated county population of 1,082,928 compared to 62,980 for Retained and 186,852 for Boomerang Pivot Counties. All six are located in or near the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles (1), Atlanta (3), Baltimore (1), and Houston (1).
Reverse-Pivot Counties also tend to have larger Black, Asian, and Hispanic or Latino populations compared to Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties. Economically, Reverse-Pivot Counties tend to have higher median household incomes and lower rates of persons in poverty compared to Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties.
The tables below show 2020 demographic data for Reverse-Pivot Counties compared to that of Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties and demographic data for each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties.[3]
- United States: national averages.[5]
- Average: an average of demographic numbers or percentages across each of the Pivot County categories. This value is not a calculation of demographics across the populations of these counties.
- Median: the median figure for each of the Pivot County categories.
- # of ... above: the number of Pivot Counties, Retained or Boomerang, with a higher number or percentage than the national average.
Voter turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]
- See also: Voter turnout in Pivot Counties
Turnout in 2020[edit]
Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election was 69.30% nationwide. In the six Reverse-Pivot Counties, turnout was 76.05%, 6.75 percentage points higher than the national rate. Collectively, the number of votes cast in the six Reverse-Pivot Counties (4,015,613) represented 2.6% of all votes cast in the 2020 presidential election.
The table below shows the turnout rates, votes cast, and voting-age populations nationwide and for all six Reverse-Pivot Counties. Data under "Total" is calculated across the entire population. Data under "Average" and "Median" is an average and median of each county.
| Turnout figures by Pivot County category, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figure | Nationwide[6] | Reverse | |||||
| Total | |||||||
| Turnout | 69.30% | 76.05% | |||||
| Votes cast | 156,957,242 | 4,015,613 | |||||
| Voting age population | 226,488,925 | 5,280,414 | |||||
| Average | |||||||
| Turnout | 66.25% | 76.70% | |||||
| Votes cast | 62,378 | 519,999 | |||||
| Voting age population | 73,679 | 686,047 | |||||
| Median | |||||||
| Turnout | 66.04% | 77.19% | |||||
| Votes cast | 12,543 | 375,621 | |||||
| Voting age population | 19,825 | 478,088 | |||||
The table below shows turnout data for each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties.
Turnout change since 2008[edit]
Nationwide, voter turnout increased by 8.26 percentage points compared to 2016, reaching its highest level since 1900.[7] Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties exceeded the nationwide change by 6.55 percentage points, increasing by 14.81 percentage points from 2016. Reverse-Pivot Counties' collectively turnout of 76.05% is the furthest these counties have been from the nationwide turnout rate since at least 2008.
The table below shows nationwide and Reverse-Pivot County turnout from 2008 to 2020. Percentage point changes in the "Change" columns reflect the change between the column immediately to its left and right.
| Total turnout changes by Pivot County category, 2008-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Turnout | Change | Turnout | Change | Turnout | Change | Turnout | |
| Reverse | 66.66% | -3.92 | 62.74% | -1.50 | 61.24% | +14.81 | 76.05% |
| United States | 63.07% | -3.07 | 60.00% | +1.04 | 61.04% | +8.26 | 69.30% |
As shown in the chart below, in 2020, turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties reached its highest level since at least 2008 when these counties voted for McCain. Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties decreased over the following two presidential elections, reaching its lowest point in 2016 when these counties voted for Clinton. In each of the four presidential elections from 2008 to 2020, turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties exceeded nationwide turnout rates by an average of 3.27 percentage points.
The table below shows changes in voter turnout in each of the six Reverse-Pivot Counties from 2008 to 2020.
Comparison to Retained and Boomerang Pivot Counties[edit]
Turnout in 2020[edit]
Voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election was 69.25% nationwide. In the six Reverse-Pivot Counties, turnout was 76.05%, 6.80 percentage points higher than the national rate. This turnout rate was 8.24 percentage points higher than that in Retained Pivot Counties and 4.43 percentage points higher than that in Boomerang Pivot Counties.
The table below shows the turnout rates, votes cast, and voting-age populations for all six Reverse-Pivot Counties, the 181 Retained Pivot Counties, and the 25 Boomerang Pivot Counties. Data under "Total" is calculated across the entire population. Data under "Average" and "Median" is an average and median of each Pivot County.
| Turnout figures by Pivot County category, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figure | Nationwide[8] | Reverse | Retained | Boomerang | |||
| Total | |||||||
| Turnout | 69.30% | 76.05% | 67.81% | 71.62% | |||
| Votes cast | 156,957,242 | 4,015,613 | 5,852,204 | 2,561,096 | |||
| Voting age population | 226,488,925 | 5,280,414 | 8,630,835 | 3,575,785 | |||
| Average | |||||||
| Turnout | 66.25% | 76.70% | 67.17% | 70.58% | |||
| Votes cast | 62,378 | 519,999 | 32,333 | 102,444 | |||
| Voting age population | 73,679 | 686,047 | 47,684 | 143,031 | |||
| Median | |||||||
| Turnout | 66.04% | 77.19% | 68.51% | 70.76% | |||
| Votes cast | 12,543 | 375,621 | 15,340 | 79,409 | |||
| Voting age population | 19,825 | 478,088 | 20,445 | 123,880 | |||
Turnout change since 2008[edit]
Nationwide, voter turnout increased by 8.26 percentage points compared to 2016, reaching its highest level since 1900.[7] Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties exceeded the nationwide change, increasing by 14.81 percentage points compared to 2016, more than twice the rate of change in Retained (+6.89) and Boomerang (+6.93) Pivot Counties.
The table below shows turnout by Pivot County category and the overall U.S. turnout from 2008 to 2020. Percentage point changes in the "Change" columns reflect the change between the column immediately to its left and right.
| Total turnout changes by Pivot County category, 2008-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 | ||||
| Turnout | Change | Turnout | Change | Turnout | Change | Turnout | |
| Reverse | 66.66% | -3.92 | 62.74% | -1.50 | 61.24% | +14.81 | 76.05% |
| Retained | 63.31% | -3.41 | 59.90% | +1.01 | 60.91% | +6.90 | 67.81% |
| Boomerang | 66.44% | -1.48 | 64.96% | -0.27 | 64.69% | +6.93 | 71.62% |
| United States | 63.07% | -3.07 | 60.00% | +1.04 | 61.04% | +8.26 | 69.30% |
As shown in the chart below, in 2020, turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties reached its highest level since at least 2008 when these counties voted for McCain. Turnout in Reverse-Pivot Counties decreased over the following two presidential elections, reaching its lowest point in 2016 when these counties voted for Clinton.
Reverse-Pivot Counties by legislative district[edit]
Congressional districts[edit]
Overview[edit]
- See also: Pivot Counties by congressional district
There are 20 U.S. House districts containing Reverse-Pivot counties. Following the 2020 elections, Republicans flipped two of these districts, both of which had been flipped by Democrats in the 2018 elections. Since 2016, Democrats have gained a net four U.S. House districts containing Reverse-Pivot counties.
The table below shows a comparison between partisan control of these 20 U.S. House districts from 2016 to 2020. The rightmost column shows the net change in partisan control between 2016 and 2020.
| Partisan control of Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2016-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | 2016 | 2018 | 2020 | Net change from 2016 | |||
| Democratic | 10 | 16 | 14 | +4 | |||
| Republican | 10 | 4 | 6 | -4 | |||
The map below shows the outcome of U.S. House elections in the congressional districts containing Pivot Counties from 2016 to 2020.
Hover over each district to view its Pivot Counties and party control from 2016 to 2020.
List of Congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]
The table below lists all congressional districts that encompass all or part of at least one Reverse-Pivot County. Additionally, the table shows the winning party in each district's U.S. House elections from 2016 to 2020.
All Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for Biden in 2020. Counties that span multiple districts are repeated and listed alongside each applicable district.
| List of congressional districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning party, 2016 | Winning party, 2018 | Winning party, 2020 | Reverse-Pivot Counties | |||
| California | |||||||
| District 38 |  Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Orange | |||
| District 39 |  Republican |
Democratic |
Republican
| ||||
| District 45 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 46 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 47 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 48 | Republican |
Democratic |
Republican
| ||||
| District 49 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Georgia | |||||||
| District 03 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Henry | |||
| District 04 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 06 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Cobb | |||
| District 07 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 10 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Gwinnett | |||
| Henry | |||||||
| District 11 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Cobb | |||
| District 13 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Cobb | |||
| Henry | |||||||
| Maryland | |||||||
| District 02 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Anne Arundel | |||
| District 03 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 04 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 05 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Texas | |||||||
| District 09 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Fort Bend | |||
| District 22 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
State legislative districts[edit]
Overall[edit]
The chart and table below show the change in partisan control of all state Senate and House seats in districts containing a Pivot County. The totals for each year show the partisan control of each seat following the given year's regularly-scheduled election regardless of whether the seat was up for election that year.
| Partisan control of state legislative seats in districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partisan control after 2016 | Partisan control after 2018 | Partisan control after 2020 | Net change from 2016 | ||||
| Democratic | 39 | 53 | 58 | +19 | |||
| Republican | 56 | 42 | 37 | -19 | |||
| Total seats | 95 | 95 | 95 | - | |||
State Senate districts[edit]
The chart and table below show the change in partisan control of all state Senate seats in districts containing a Reverse-Pivot County from 2016 to 2020. The totals for each year show the partisan control of each seat following the given year's regularly-scheduled election regardless of whether the seat was up for election that year.
| Partisan control of state Senate seats in districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partisan control after 2016 | Partisan control after 2018 | Partisan control after 2020 | Net change from 2016 | ||||
| Democratic | 12 | 15 | 18 | +6 | |||
| Republican | 16 | 13 | 10 | -6 | |||
| Total seats | 28 | 28 | 28 | - | |||
List of state Senate districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]
The table below lists all state Senate districts that encompass all or part of at least one Reverse-Pivot County. Additionally, the table shows the partisan control of each district following even-year elections from 2016 to 2020.
Cells shaded a darker gray indicate that there was not a regularly-scheduled election that year. The contents of these cells show the partisan affiliation of the senator representing the district at that time.
All Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for Biden in 2020. Counties that span multiple districts are repeated and listed alongside each applicable district.
| List of state Senate districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning party, 2016 | Winning party, 2018 | Winning party, 2020 | Reverse-Pivot Counties | |||
| California | |||||||
| District 29 | Democratic |
Republican[9] |
Democratic |
Orange | |||
| District 32 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 34 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 36 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 37 | Republican |
Republican |
Democratic
| ||||
| Georgia | |||||||
| District 05 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 06 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Cobb | |||
| District 09 | Republican |
Republican |
Democratic |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 10 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Henry | |||
| District 14 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Cobb | |||
| District 17 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Henry | |||
| District 32 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Cobb | |||
| District 33 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 37 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 38 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 40 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 41 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 45 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 48 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 55 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Maryland | |||||||
| District 21 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Anne Arundel | |||
| District 30 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 31 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 32 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 33 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| Texas | |||||||
| District 13 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Fort Bend | |||
| District 17 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 18 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
State House districts[edit]
The chart and table below show the change in partisan control of all state House seats in districts containing a Reverse-Pivot County from 2016 to 2020. The totals for each year show the partisan control of each seat following the given year's regularly-scheduled election regardless of whether the seat was up for election that year.
| Partisan control of state House seats in districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partisan control after 2016 | Partisan control after 2018 | Partisan control after 2020 | Net change from 2016 | ||||
| Democratic | 27 | 38 | 40 | +13 | |||
| Republican | 40 | 29 | 27 | -13 | |||
| Total seats | 67 | 67 | 67 | - | |||
List of state House districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties[edit]
The table below lists all state House districts that encompass all or part of at least one Reverse-Pivot County. Additionally, the table shows the partisan control of each district following even-year elections from 2016 to 2020.
Cells shaded a darker gray indicate that there was not a regularly-scheduled election that year. The contents of these cells show the partisan affiliation of the senator representing the district at that time.
All Reverse-Pivot Counties voted for Biden in 2020. Counties that span multiple districts are repeated and listed alongside each applicable district.
| List of state House districts containing Reverse-Pivot Counties, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning party, 2016 | Winning party, 2018 | Winning party, 2020 | Reverse-Pivot Counties | |||
| California | |||||||
| District 55 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Orange | |||
| District 65 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 68 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 69 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 72 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 73 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 74 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| Georgia | |||||||
| District 34 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Cobb | |||
| District 35 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 36 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 37 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 38 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 39 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 40 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 41 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 42 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 43 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 44 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 45 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 46 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 53 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 61 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 73 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Henry | |||
| District 76 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 78 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 81 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 90 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Henry | |||
| District 93 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 94 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 95 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 96 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 97 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 98 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 99 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 100 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 101 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 102 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 103 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 104 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 105 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 106 | Republican |
Republican |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 107 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 108 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 109 | Republican |
Republican |
Democratic |
Henry | |||
| District 110 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 111 | Republican |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 114 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Gwinnett | |||
| District 130 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Henry | |||
| Maryland | |||||||
| District 21 | Democratic Democratic Democratic |
Democratic Democratic Democratic |
Democratic Democratic Democratic |
Maryland | |||
| District 30A | Democratic Republican |
Democratic Democratic |
Democratic Democratic
| ||||
| District 30B | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 31A | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 31B | Republican Republican |
Republican Republican |
Republican Republican
| ||||
| District 32 | Democratic Democratic Democratic |
Democratic Democratic Democratic |
Democratic Democratic Democratic
| ||||
| District 33 | Republican Republican Republican |
Republican Republican Democratic |
Republican Republican Democratic
| ||||
| Texas | |||||||
| District 26 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican |
Fort Bend | |||
| District 27 | Democratic |
Democratic |
Democratic
| ||||
| District 28 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
| District 85 | Republican |
Republican |
Republican
| ||||
See also[edit]
- Pivot Counties in the 2020 presidential election
- Margins of victory analysis
- Voter turnout in Pivot Counties
- Demographics of Pivot Counties
- Presidential election, 2020
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ This analysis does not include counties in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 U.S. Census Bureau, "QuickFacts," accessed Nov. 23, 2020
- ↑ Averages for the United States, used in population estimates and the number of veterans, were calculated using 3,143 counties or county-level equivalents.
- ↑ Averages for the United States, used in population estimates and the number of veterans, were calculated using 3,143 counties or county-level equivalents.
- ↑ Nationwide calculations were found using voting and census data from the 3,074 counties included in this analysis. These totals exclude results in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedhistory - ↑ Nationwide calculations were found using voting and census data from the 3,074 counties included in this analysis. These totals exclude results in Alaska and certain independent cities due to variations in vote total reporting.
- ↑ There was no regularly-scheduled election for District 29 in 2018. Incumbent Sen. Josh Newman (D) was recalled resulting in a June 5 special election won by Ling-Ling Chang (R).
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