Idaho House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Idaho House Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | May 17, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
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All 70 seats in the Idaho House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained three seats in the November 2016 general election.
Contents
- 1 Introductions
- 2 Retired incumbents
- 3 2016 election competitiveness
- 4 List of candidates
- 5 General election
- 6 Primary election
Introductions[edit]
Elections for the Idaho House of Representatives were held in 2016. The primary election took place on May 17, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 11, 2016.
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Idaho House of Representatives:
| Idaho House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 14 | 11 | |
| Republican Party | 56 | 59 | |
| Total | 70 | 70 | |
Retired incumbents[edit]
Seven incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Rudolph |  Democratic |
House District 6A |
| Gayle Batt |  Republican |
House District 11A |
| Reed DeMordaunt | Republican |
House District 14B |
| Donna Pence | Democratic |
House District 26B |
| Ken Andrus | Republican |
House District 28A |
| Mark Nye | Democratic |
House District 29A |
| Linden B. Bateman | Republican |
House District 33B |
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Idaho sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Idaho performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Idaho State Senate, there were 7 Democratic incumbents and 28 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. Five primary challenges took place in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 14 Democratic incumbents and 56 Republican incumbents. One state representative faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 25 primary challenges that took place in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Idaho can be found below.
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
| 2016 Idaho House candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1A | Kate McAlister: 8,630 | Heather Scott: 14,406 (I)  |
|
| 1B | Stephen Howlett: 7,088 | Sage Dixon: 15,485 (I) |
|
| 2A | Kathy Kahn: 6,581 | Vito Barbieri: 17,115 (I) |
|
| 2B | Richard Kohles: 5,724 | Eric Redman: 17,735 (I) |
|
| 3A | No candidate | Ron Mendive: 17,019 (I) |
|
| 3B | No candidate | Don Cheatham: 16,891 (I) |
|
| 4A | Patrick P. Mitchell: 6,447 | Luke Malek: 14,229 (I) |
|
| 4B | Tom Hearn: 7,650 | Paul Amador: 13,202 |
|
| 5A | Paulette E. Jordan: 11,179 (I) |
Carl Berglund: 10,889 | |
| 5B | Laurene Sorensen: 8,589 | Caroline Nilsson Troy: 11,121 (I) |
Kenneth B. De Vries: 2,507 (Ind.) |
| 6A | Bob Blakey: 8,144 | Thyra Stevenson: 10,600 |
|
| 6B | John Rusche: 7,933 (I) | Mike Kingsley: 11,063 |
|
| 7A | Jessica Chilcott: 5,633 | Priscilla Giddings: 13,647 |
|
| 7B | No candidate | Paul Shepherd: 16,336 (I) |
|
| 8A | Jocelyn Plass: 5,864 | Terry F. Gestrin: 16,745 (I) |
|
| 8B | No candidate | Dorothy Moon: 18,344 |
Ammon Emanuel Prolife: 2,666 (Constitution) |
| 9A | Rejeana A. Goolsby: 3,402 | Ryan Kerby: 14,634 (I) |
|
| 9B | Allen Schmid: 4,872 | Judy Boyle: 13,339 (I) |
|
| 10A | Jeremy Lopett: 4,640 | Brandon Hixon: 9,400 (I) |
|
| 10B | Warren T. Stevens: 4,572 | Greg Chaney: 9,461 (I) |
|
| 11A | Edward Savala: 3,802 | Scott Syme: 15,561 |
|
| 11B | Rita Burns: 3,555 | Christy Perry: 13,896 (I) |
John Charles Smith: 1,656 (L) |
| 12A | Maria Gonzalez Mabbutt: 5,042 | Robert Anderst: 10,972 (I) |
|
| 12B | Shana Tremaine: 4,628 | Rick Youngblood: 11,355 (I) |
|
| 13A | No candidate | Brent Crane: 14,945 (I) |
|
| 13B | No candidate | Gary Collins: 14,890 (I) |
|
| 14A | Jane M. Rohling: 7,744 | Mike Moyle: 19,107 (I) |
|
| 14B | Glida Bothwell: 7,364 | Gayann DeMordaunt: 19,098 |
|
| 15A | Steve Berch: 9,370 | Lynn Luker: 9,663 (I) |
|
| 15B | Jake Ellis: 8,194 | Patrick McDonald: 10,506 (I) |
|
| 16A | John McCrostie: 10,599 (I) |
Joel Robinson: 9,089 | |
| 16B | Hy Kloc: 14,138 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 17A | John L. Gannon: 10,521 (I) |
Kreed Ray Kleinkopf: 6,149 | |
| 17B | Susan Chew: 10,615 (I) |
Tabby Jolley: 6,353 | |
| 18A | Ilana Rubel: 16,196 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18B | Phylis King: 16,191 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 19A | Mathew Erpelding: 16,546 (I) |
Mark Patten: 7,520 | |
| 19B | Melissa Wintrow: 16,220 (I) |
Jane McClaran: 7,883 | |
| 20A | No candidate | Joe Palmer: 14,447 (I) |
Daniel S. Weston: 3,875 (Constitution) |
| 20B | No candidate | James Holtzclaw: 16,105 (I) |
|
| 21A | Robert Winder: 7,586 | Steven Harris: 14,391 (I) |
|
| 21B | Cindy Thorngren: 7,531 | Tom Dayley: 14,454 (I) |
|
| 22A | No candidate | John Vander Woude: 13,493 (I) |
|
| 22B | No candidate | Jason Monks: 13,260 (I) |
|
| 23A | Mary Ann Richards: 3,360 | Christy Zito: 10,867 |
|
| 23B | No candidate | Megan C. Blanksma: 10,810 |
Bill Chisholm: 2,335 (Ind.) Christopher Jenkins: 889 (L) |
| 24A | Dale Varney: 4,443 | Lance Clow: 12,035 (I) |
|
| 24B | Catherine Talkington: 6,422 | Stephen Hartgen: 10,161 (I) |
|
| 25A | No candidate | Maxine Bell: 14,839 (I) |
|
| 25B | No candidate | Clark Kauffman: 14,713 (I) |
|
| 26A | Kathleen J. Eder: 8,958 | Steve Miller: 9,222 (I) |
|
| 26B | Sally Toone: 9,808 |
Alex Sutter: 8,317 | |
| 27A | No candidate | Scott Bedke: 13,181 (I) |
|
| 27B | No candidate | Fred Wood: 13,060 (I) |
|
| 28A | Steve Landon: 6,741 | Randy Armstrong: 12,499 |
|
| 28B | Louis Archuleta: 6,356 | Kelley Packer: 12,920 (I) |
|
| 29A | David H. Maguire: 7,884 | Dustin W. Manwaring: 8,609 |
|
| 29B | Elaine Smith: 13,425 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 30A | Matt P. Dance: 4,561 | Jeff Thompson: 15,295 (I) |
|
| 30B | No candidate | Wendy Horman: 16,957 (I) |
|
| 31A | No candidate | Neil Anderson: 14,183 (I) |
|
| 31B | No candidate | Julie Van Orden: 14,427 (I) |
|
| 32A | No candidate | Marc Gibbs: 17,682 (I) |
|
| 32B | No candidate | Thomas Loertscher: 17,513 (I) |
|
| 33A | Jim De Angelis: 5,463 | Janet Trujillo: 10,510 (I) |
|
| 33B | George P. Morrison: 5,332 | Bryan N. Zollinger: 10,466 |
|
| 34A | No candidate | Ronald M. Nate: 16,803 (I) |
|
| 34B | No candidate | Dell Raybould: 16,953 (I) |
|
| 35A | No candidate | Van Burtenshaw: 16,566 (I) |
|
| 35B | No candidate | Karey Hanks: 16,163 |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election[edit]
Races we watched[edit]
Ballotpedia identified nine notable Idaho state primary races in 2016, six of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Idaho races »
Primary contests[edit]
- A Republican incumbent faced a more conservative challenger.
- ☐ Merrill Beyeler (Inc.) ☑ Dorothy Moon
- Five Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Myron Amsden ☐ Marty Galvin ☐ Tammy Nichols ☐ Mike Pullin ☑ Scott Syme
- A Republican incumbent faced a conservative challenger.
- ☑ Stephen Hartgen (Inc.) ☐ Mary C. Bello
- A Republican incumbent faced a conservative challenger.
- ☑ Maxine Bell (Inc.) ☐ Reggy A. Sternes
- A Republican incumbent faced a more moderate challenger.
- ☑ Ronald M. Nate (Inc.) ☐ Doug Ricks
- A Republican incumbent faced a rematch against a conservative challenger.
- ☐ Paul Romrell (Inc.) ☑ Karey Hanks
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Idaho House of Representatives in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 70 races in the Idaho House of Representatives in 2016, 45 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 34 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Republican candidates in the Idaho House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 59 races. In the 38 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 36.6 percent. Democrats won 11 races in 2016. In the seven races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.1 percent. |
| Democratic candidates and Republican candidates each won three races with margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Six of the 45 contested races in 2016—13.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Both parties won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Idaho House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5A D 1.3 percent District 15A R 1.5 percent District 16A D 7.7 percent District 26A R 1.5 percent District 26B D 8.2 percent District 29A R 4.4 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Idaho House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 56 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 32 winning Idaho House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 33.3 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Idaho House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 46 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 26 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 35.8 percent. 10 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the six races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22.1 percent. |
Idaho House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 11 20.1 percent 10 22.1 percent 4 4 36.4 percent Republican 59 36.6 percent 46 35.8 percent 20 21 35.6 percent Total 70 34.0 percent 56 33.3 percent 24 25 35.7 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Idaho House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Idaho House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1A | R | 25.1 percent |
| District 1B | R | 37.2 percent |
| District 2A | R | 44.5 percent |
| District 2B | R | 51.2 percent |
| District 3A | R | Unopposed |
| District 3B | R | Unopposed |
| District 4A | R | 37.6 percent |
| District 4B | R | 26.6 percent |
| District 5A | D | 1.3 percent |
| District 5B | R | 11.4 percent |
| District 6A | R | 13.1 percent |
| District 6B | R | 16.5 percent |
| District 7A | R | 41.6 percent |
| District 7B | R | Unopposed |
| District 8A | R | 48.1 percent |
| District 8B | R | 74.6 percent |
| District 9A | R | 62.3 percent |
| District 9B | R | 46.5 percent |
| District 10A | R | 33.9 percent |
| District 10B | R | 34.8 percent |
| District 11A | R | 60.7 percent |
| District 11B | R | 54.1 percent |
| District 12A | R | 37.0 percent |
| District 12B | R | 42.1 percent |
| District 13A | R | Unopposed |
| District 13B | R | Unopposed |
| District 14A | R | 42.3 percent |
| District 14B | R | 44.3 percent |
| District 15A | R | 1.5 percent |
| District 15B | R | 12.4 percent |
| District 16A | D | 7.7 percent |
| District 16B | D | Unopposed |
| District 17A | D | 26.2 percent |
| District 17B | D | 25.1 percent |
| District 18A | D | Unopposed |
| District 18B | D | Unopposed |
| District 19A | D | 37.5 percent |
| District 19B | D | 34.6 percent |
| District 20A | R | 57.7 percent |
| District 20B | R | Unopposed |
| District 21A | R | 31.0 percent |
| District 21B | R | 31.5 percent |
| District 22A | R | Unopposed |
| District 22B | R | Unopposed |
| District 23A | R | 52.8 percent |
| District 23B | R | 60.4 percent |
| District 24A | R | 46.1 percent |
| District 24B | R | 22.6 percent |
| District 25A | R | Unopposed |
| District 25B | R | Unopposed |
| District 26A | R | 1.5 percent |
| District 26B | D | 8.2 percent |
| District 27A | R | Unopposed |
| District 27B | R | Unopposed |
| District 28A | R | 29.9 percent |
| District 28B | R | 34.1 percent |
| District 29A | R | 4.4 percent |
| District 29B | D | Unopposed |
| District 30A | R | 54.1 percent |
| District 30B | R | Unopposed |
| District 31A | R | Unopposed |
| District 31B | R | Unopposed |
| District 32A | R | Unopposed |
| District 32B | R | Unopposed |
| District 33A | R | 31.6 percent |
| District 33B | R | 32.5 percent |
| District 34A | R | Unopposed |
| District 34B | R | Unopposed |
| District 35A | R | Unopposed |
| District 35B | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Idaho elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Idaho in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| March 8, 2016 | Election date | Presidential preference primary election | |
| March 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for both party and independent candidates | |
| April 19, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates to file declarations of intent for the primary election | |
| May 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-primary report due | |
| May 17, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-primary report due | |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Semi-annual report due (for non-active statewide candidates only) | |
| August 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day to file new political party formation petitions | |
| October 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for write-in candidates to file declarations of intent for the general election | |
| October 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day pre-general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-general report due | |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | Annual report due | |
| Sources: Idaho Secretary of State, "Elections–2016 Election Consolidation Calendar," accessed July 9, 2015 Idaho Secretary of State, "Idaho Sunshine Law - Reporting Dates - 2015/2016 Election Cycle," accessed July 9, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]
In 28 of the 70 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 4 Democrats and 24 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 42 of the 70 seats up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
Twenty-six incumbents faced primary competition on May 17. Seven seats were open, leaving 37 incumbents that advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary election:
- District 4B: Kathleen Sims (R)
- District 7A: Shannon McMillan (R)
- District 8B: Merrill Beyeler (R)
- District 23A: Richard Wills (R)
- District 23B: Pete Nielsen (R)
- District 35B: Paul Romrell (R)
Retired incumbents[edit]
Seven incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 63 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, four Republicans and three Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Idaho's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Idaho Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.5% | 33.0% | 52.3% | 31.9 | 16 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Idaho in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Idaho House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 155 | $2,821,299 |
| 2012 | 225 | $2,763,023 |
| 2010 | 142 | $2,164,091 |
| 2008 | 148 | $2,601,652 |
| 2006 | 145 | $2,044,999 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Idaho, at $18,202 per candidate, is ranked 38 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications[edit]
Article III, Section 6 of the Idaho Constitution states: No person shall be a senator or representative who, at the time of his election, is not a citizen of the United States, and an elector of this state, nor anyone who has not been for one year next preceding his election an elector of the county or district whence he may be chosen.
See also[edit]
External links[edit]
- Idaho Secretary of State - primary candidate list
- Idaho Secretary of State - Third party general election candidates
- Idaho Secretary of State - Primary election results
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Idaho," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
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