Insiders see high chance of a Clinton victory
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 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
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September 8, 2016[edit]
By Jim Barnes
Hillary Clinton has struggled in this presidential election, hampered by doubts about her trustworthiness and uneven performances on the campaign stump. But when political Insiders in both parties weigh her political strengths and weaknesses against those of Republican Donald Trump, they view the Democratic nominee as the likely winner in November.
Ballotpedia surveyed more than 200 Democratic and Republican strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists, and allied interest group operatives, from September 2-6, and found that solid majorities in both parties judged that the odds were high that the former secretary of state would prevail over the GOP standard bearer in November.
The party operatives were asked to rate the chances on a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty) that the Democrats would win the White House. The 101 Democratic Insiders who participated in this survey gave an average score of 7.9, while 105 Republican Insiders registered an average of 7.1. (For the purposes of this survey, an average score between seven and 10 was judged to be a high chance of success for the Democrats.)
Democratic responses
Republican responses
While Democratic Insiders are bullish on Clinton’s prospects, they also acknowledge the cloud that still hangs over her candidacy due to the controversy over the alleged mishandling of her email communications while she was secretary of state. They also caution against taking Trump too lightly. But GOP Insiders remain pretty despondent over their party’s nominee, whom they view as a severely flawed candidate.
For a comparison of how political Insiders viewed previous presidential elections, a similar survey in 2008 of 176 Insiders conducted in mid-September by National Journal magazine found that 86 Democratic Insiders gave their party an average score of 6.3 to capture the White House, while 90 Republicans clocked in with a 5.3 average of Democrats retaining the presidency. And that year, then-Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama went on to defeat Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain. In 2012, a mid-September National Journal Insiders survey of 205 political operatives in both parties also gave the advantage to Obama: 103 Democratic Insiders rated his re-election prospects with an average score of 7.7, while 102 Republicans gave a slight edge to Obama with an average score of 5.8.
While Insiders by their very nature are part of the political establishment, and Trump rebuked and defied the Republican establishment on his way to capturing the GOP nomination, the extent of the skepticism that Republicans have for the New York developer’s prospects in November is noteworthy. Likewise, many Democratic Insiders have reservations about Clinton, but nonetheless figure she is well positioned to retain the party’s hold on the White House.
Below are the verbatim comments offered by some of the Democratic and Republican Insiders who responded to the survey. They have been lightly edited for clarity. The number to the left of each comment is the 0-to-10 score that the Insider gave in rating the Democrats’ chances of winning the White House. The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from the Insiders.
Democratic Insiders’ Comments[edit]
5 “All depends upon Trump’s demise [among] Hispanics.”
6 “The electorate is too volatile to make a hard prediction one way or another. And with both candidates as tainted as they are, turnout will be key and turnout is the hardest thing to predict in politics.”
7 “I fear my party is underestimating The Donald’s appeal.”
7 “America is not stupid enough to allow Trump to win, even with its divisions.”
7 “Turnout matters a lot.”
7 “Hillary will likely win, but it would be easier if she could relax and make fun of her mistake with her emails.”
7 “The debates are critical, as a fumble of any sort by HRC would tighten the race dramatically. The opposite is true for Trump—a fumble would cement in the loss.”
7 “And verging on a six: Any thought of some ‘wave landslide’ has gone out the proverbial window the minute Trump took the stage with Pena Nieto in Mexico City. Team Clinton had better stop dreaming about Georgia and Arizona and the myriad of different Trumps that might show up in the first debate and get very tough-minded about how to win Ohio and Florida.”
8 “Only two things can stop a Trump loss: Trump staggers Hillary in the first debate, and/or WikiLeaks/emails.”
8 “Trump is the only Republican who can lose the race and that's because he is not a Republican he is a Know-Nothing.”
8 “Voters are more bothered by Trump being a dangerous risk than Clinton being untrustworthy. And the Electoral College just favors Dems in this scenario.”
8 “It's all about the debates.”
8 “This scares me because we all underestimated Trump in the primary, but the math seems to point to a Democratic victory.”
8 “Democrats need to motivate their voters to vote for Clinton. Votes for third party candidates help Trump.”
8 “A lot can happen in two months.”
8 “That's slightly higher than current 538 [website] projection.”
8 “Trump continues to be erratic, as does his campaign operation. Trump will have to have great debate performances to be competitive.”
9 “Ultimately, the American people will determine that there is virtually nothing about Donald Trump that is presidential.”
9 “Trump’s unfavorable ratings are not going to change. And more email revelations on Clinton side [sic] are already built into her numbers. This would be a blowout with a less flawed Democratic candidate.”
9 “Hillary is qualified to the maximum and no one will have a clue about what Donald will do.”
9 “I have such a hard [time] saying absolutely Democrats will win—went with a nine instead of a 10—but maybe a few more incidents by Donald like this week in Phoenix and I’d bet the farm.”
Republican Insiders’ Comments[edit]
4 “I think it can go either way, too many unknowns.”
5 “This race is closer than people think with the undercurrent favoring the party out of the White House. Plus, Hillary is just a bad candidate that did things that should disqualify her from any office.”
5 “If anybody but Hillary were the candidate ‘9;’ if anybody but Trump were the GOP candidate ‘1.’”
6 “They have every tactical reason to win this, but with a deeply flawed candidate and a hurricane in Trump, no path is certain.”
6 “Clinton might win because Trump is running a terrible general election campaign.”
6 “With newfound discipline, Trump remains bold but is increasingly effective. Hillary is too cautious; opening for him to reshape the game.”
7 “The Clintons have everything wired: grass roots, [the] media, money and demographics. But, people don't want to vote for her. Can they drag her over the line?”
7 “With two such flawed candidates, there are no guarantees in this election.”
7 “There's no conventional sign that Trump is doing or is capable of doing anything that would indicate he could win. But in such an unpredictable year, I don’t think you can fully discount the possibility.”
7 “The map works for the Democratic nominee, even one as flawed as Hillary Clinton.”
7 “Campaigns and events matter. Trump will not run a better campaign, but events could be favorable.”
7 “Only trump could and will lose to this loser.”
8 “Possibility of Hillary implosion (health, Foundation, email) is the GOP’s only real hope.”
8 “The Clintons continue to be the luckiest political family in American history.”
8 “Have you seen our candidate?”
8 “Hillary's untrustworthiness could still bite her big time, but the liberal media will likely continue to give her a pass. Lack of trust could erode her lead if Trump could stop making himself the issue.”
8 “Trump's only chance is if a major Clinton Foundation/State Department [emails] bombshell changes the race.”
8 “It will be up and down, but at the end of the day demographics will win out. DT is surrendering to many groups.”
9 “Republicans’ biggest choke job since Jean Van de Velde at the [1999 British Open].”
9 “If you're getting killed among blacks, Hispanics and Asians and underperforming among college-educated whites, the algebra is almost impossible.”
10 “No amount of creative interpretation of national polls makes this winnable for Trump.”
10 “The Democrats have a nightmare of a nominee and we have nominated the only person in America incapable of beating her.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics.
See also[edit]
- Insiders divided on Senate races, give nod to GOP in battle for the House
- Donald Trump presidential campaign, 2016
- Hillary Clinton presidential campaign, 2016
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