Kansas House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Kansas House Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 2, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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All 125 seats in the Kansas House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained 12 seats in the November 2016 general election.
Contents
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Incumbents retiring
- 3 2016 election competitiveness
- 4 Races we watched
- 5 Primary election
- 6 List of candidates
- 7 General election
- 8 Primary election
Introduction[edit]
Elections for the Kansas House of Representatives were held in 2016. The primary election was held on August 2, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Kansas House of Representatives:
| Kansas House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 28 | 40 | |
| Republican Party | 97 | 85 | |
| Total | 125 | 125 | |
Incumbents retiring[edit]
Twenty-six incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Kansas saw improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Kansas performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Kansas State Senate, there were eight Democratic incumbents and 32 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 28 Democratic incumbents and 97 Republican incumbents. Twenty-four state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 28 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Kansas can be found below.
Races we watched[edit]
Ballotpedia identified four notable Kansas state legislative races in 2016, all four of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Kansas races »
General election contests[edit]
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in a Democratic-leaning district.
- ☐ Chuck Smith (Inc.) ☑ Monica Murnan
- The Republican incumbent faced a primary challenger en route to a general election rematch.
- ☐ Lane Hemsley (Inc.) ☑ Virgil Weigel
- A Democratic candidate challenged the Republican incumbent in a closely divided district.
- ☐ Joseph Scapa (Inc.) ☑ Elizabeth Bishop
- A Democratic candidate competed to challenge the GOP incumbent to a rematch.
- ☐ Steven Anthimides (Inc.) ☑ Steven Crum
Primary election[edit]
In the primary elections held on August 2, 2016, six incumbents were defeated in the state Senate, while nine incumbents were defeated in the state House. Outside of the one incumbent Democrat who was defeated in the House, the other 14 incumbents who were ousted were conservative Republicans displaced by moderate Republicans running against the conservative policies of Gov. Sam Brownback (R). Before the 2016 primary, moderate Republicans had been losing ground in the state legislature, shifting from a more moderate Republican-controlled state legislature to a more conservative one after the 2012 elections. In 2012, 18 Republican incumbents were unseated.
Before the primary, there were 25 conservative incumbents in the Senate that would follow the governor's agenda. Following the primary results, the number dropped to 18 conservative members. The House saw a similar number of conservative seats change to moderate.[2]
House incumbents defeated[edit]
- Patty Markley defeated incumbent Craig McPherson in the District 8 Republican primary by a 58-42 margin.
- Tom Cox defeated incumbent Brett Hildabrand in the District 17 Republican primary by a 62-38 margin.
- Jan Kessinger defeated incumbent Rob Bruchman in the District 20 Republican primary by a 54-46 margin.
- Joy Koesten defeated incumbent Jerry Lunn in the District 28 Republican primary by a 54-46 margin.
- Shelee Brim defeated incumbent Charles Macheers in the District 39 Republican primary by a 43-34 margin.
- Jim Karleskint defeated incumbent Connie O'Brien in the District 42 Republican primary by a 52-48 margin.
- Vic Miller defeated incumbent Ben Scott in the District 58 Democratic primary by a 73-22 margin.
- Mary Martha Good defeated incumbent Will Carpenter in the District 75 Republican primary by a 51-49 margin.
- Anita Judd-Jenkins defeated incumbent Kasha Kelley in the District 80 Republican primary by a 53-47 margin.
Heading into the 2016 general election, Kansas was one of 23 Republican trifecta states. Read more about party control in Kansas »
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
Primary election[edit]
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Kansas House of Representatives in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 125 races in the Kansas House of Representatives in 2016, 75 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 24.3 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Republican candidates in the Kansas House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 85 races. In the 54 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 28.2 percent. Democrats won 40 races in 2016. In the 21 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 14.3 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 19 of the 75 contested races in 2016—25.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Ten races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won 11 races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Kansas House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 3 D 5.0 percent District 18 D 4.7 percent District 21 D 9.4 percent District 23 R 9.0 percent District 29 D 5.3 percent District 30 R 4.7 percent District 40 D 4.5 percent District 41 D 10.0 percent District 45 R 9.3 percent District 51 R 3.9 percent District 54 R 7.4 percent District 56 D 3.9 percent District 69 R 3.7 percent District 72 D 2.4 percent District 95 D 8.8 percent District 98 D 6.0 percent District 105 R 9.3 percent District 111 D 7.2 percent District 119 R 2.9 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Kansas House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 78 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 41 winning Kansas House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 27.4 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents and Republican incumbents in the Kansas House of Representatives saw the same margins of victory. 24 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the seven races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 27.4 percent. 54 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 34 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 27.4 percent. |
Kansas House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 40 14.3 percent 24 27.4 percent 17 19 47.5 percent Republican 85 28.2 percent 54 27.4 percent 20 31 36.5 percent Total 125 24.3 percent 78 27.4 percent 37 50 40.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Kansas House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Kansas House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 2 | D | Unopposed |
| District 3 | D | 5.0 percent |
| District 4 | R | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | 18.3 percent |
| District 6 | R | 17.5 percent |
| District 7 | R | Unopposed |
| District 8 | R | 45.6 percent |
| District 9 | R | 51.7 percent |
| District 10 | D | Unopposed |
| District 11 | R | Unopposed |
| District 12 | R | 39.8 percent |
| District 13 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 15.9 percent |
| District 15 | R | 17.0 percent |
| District 16 | D | 11.4 percent |
| District 17 | R | 13.3 percent |
| District 18 | D | 4.7 percent |
| District 19 | R | 26.8 percent |
| District 20 | R | 29.9 percent |
| District 21 | D | 9.4 percent |
| District 22 | D | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | 9.0 percent |
| District 24 | D | 20.7 percent |
| District 25 | R | 18.1 percent |
| District 26 | R | 34.4 percent |
| District 27 | R | 38.7 percent |
| District 28 | R | Unopposed |
| District 29 | D | 5.3 percent |
| District 30 | R | 4.7 percent |
| District 31 | D | Unopposed |
| District 32 | D | Unopposed |
| District 33 | D | Unopposed |
| District 34 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | D | Unopposed |
| District 36 | D | 34.7 percent |
| District 37 | D | Unopposed |
| District 38 | R | 23.3 percent |
| District 39 | R | 29.9 percent |
| District 40 | D | 4.5 percent |
| District 41 | D | 10.0 percent |
| District 42 | R | 15.7 percent |
| District 43 | R | Unopposed |
| District 44 | D | 50.4 percent |
| District 45 | R | 9.3 percent |
| District 46 | D | Unopposed |
| District 47 | R | 37.1 percent |
| District 48 | R | 86.6 percent |
| District 49 | R | 16.8 percent |
| District 50 | R | 37.0 percent |
| District 51 | R | 3.9 percent |
| District 52 | R | Unopposed |
| District 53 | D | 14.9 percent |
| District 54 | R | 7.4 percent |
| District 55 | D | Unopposed |
| District 56 | D | 3.9 percent |
| District 57 | D | Unopposed |
| District 58 | D | Unopposed |
| District 59 | R | Unopposed |
| District 60 | R | 26.6 percent |
| District 61 | R | 22.9 percent |
| District 62 | R | Unopposed |
| District 63 | R | 46.5 percent |
| District 64 | R | Unopposed |
| District 65 | R | Unopposed |
| District 66 | D | 31.4 percent |
| District 67 | R | Unopposed |
| District 68 | R | 41.7 percent |
| District 69 | R | 3.7 percent |
| District 70 | R | 33.3 percent |
| District 71 | R | 50.8 percent |
| District 72 | D | 2.4 percent |
| District 73 | R | 39.2 percent |
| District 74 | R | Unopposed |
| District 75 | R | Unopposed |
| District 76 | R | 27.4 percent |
| District 77 | R | Unopposed |
| District 78 | R | 22.1 percent |
| District 79 | D | Unopposed |
| District 80 | R | 37.3 percent |
| District 81 | R | 33.1 percent |
| District 82 | R | 23.3 percent |
| District 83 | D | 20.7 percent |
| District 84 | D | Unopposed |
| District 85 | R | 22.9 percent |
| District 86 | D | 25.3 percent |
| District 87 | R | 20.8 percent |
| District 88 | D | 12.3 percent |
| District 89 | D | Unopposed |
| District 90 | R | 43.8 percent |
| District 91 | R | Unopposed |
| District 92 | D | Unopposed |
| District 93 | R | 24.9 percent |
| District 94 | R | 20.5 percent |
| District 95 | D | 8.8 percent |
| District 96 | D | Unopposed |
| District 97 | R | 20.3 percent |
| District 98 | D | 6.0 percent |
| District 99 | R | Unopposed |
| District 100 | R | 29.4 percent |
| District 101 | R | 48.0 percent |
| District 102 | D | 11.2 percent |
| District 103 | D | Unopposed |
| District 104 | R | 64.4 percent |
| District 105 | R | 9.3 percent |
| District 106 | R | 12.3 percent |
| District 107 | R | Unopposed |
| District 108 | R | 36.1 percent |
| District 109 | R | Unopposed |
| District 110 | R | Unopposed |
| District 111 | D | 7.2 percent |
| District 112 | R | Unopposed |
| District 113 | R | Unopposed |
| District 114 | R | Unopposed |
| District 115 | R | Unopposed |
| District 116 | R | 19.4 percent |
| District 117 | R | Unopposed |
| District 118 | R | Unopposed |
| District 119 | R | 2.9 percent |
| District 120 | R | 70.2 percent |
| District 121 | R | 20.0 percent |
| District 122 | R | Unopposed |
| District 123 | R | Unopposed |
| District 124 | R | Unopposed |
| District 125 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Kansas elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Kansas in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering January 1, 2015–December 31, 2015 | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline for the primary election | |
| July 25, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering January 1, 2016–July 21, 2016 | |
| July 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due for last minute contributions of $300 or more received between July 22, 2016, and July 27, 2016 | |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline for the general election | |
| August 2, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due covering July 22, 2016–October 27, 2016 | |
| November 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Report due for last minute contributions of $300 or more received between October 28, 2016, and November 2, 2016 | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 10, 2017 | Campaign finance | Report due covering October 28, 2016–December 21, 2016 | |
| Source: Kansas Governmental Ethics Commission, "2016 Election Cycle Reporting Periods and Due Dates for Campaign Finance Reports," updated April 21, 2015 Kansas Secretary of State, "2016 Election Information," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]
In 51 of the 125 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 19 Democrats and 32 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 74 (59.2%) of the 125 seats up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
Twenty-eight incumbents faced primary competition on August 2. Twenty-six incumbents did not seek re-election and another 71 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary:
- District 8: Craig McPherson (R)
- District 17: Brett Hildabrand (R)
- District 20: Rob Bruchman (R)
- District 28: Jerry Lunn (R)
- District 39: Charles Macheers (R)
- District 42: Connie O'Brien (R)
- District 58: Ben Scott (D)
- District 75: Will Carpenter (R)
- District 80: Kasha Kelley (R)
Retired incumbents[edit]
Twenty-six incumbents did not run for re-election, while 99 (79.2%) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, three Democrats and 23 Republicans can be found above.
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Kansas' rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Kansas Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.4% | 18.8% | 60.0% | 29.7 | 24 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Kansas in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Kansas House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 245 | $5,372,854 |
| 2012 | 304 | $5,400,468 |
| 2010 | 250 | $5,412,493 |
| 2008 | 243 | $5,135,862 |
| 2006 | 265 | $5,017,609 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Kansas, at $21,930 per candidate, is ranked 33 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications[edit]
Section 4 of Article 2 of the Kansas Constitution states: "During the time that any person is a candidate for nomination or election to the legislature and during the term of each legislator, such candidate or legislator shall be and remain a qualified elector who resides in his or her district."[7]
See also[edit]
External links[edit]
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ kwch.com, "Primary election results show changes coming to KS politics," accessed August 4, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Kansas," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Kansas State Library, "Kansas Constitution," accessed March 28, 2014
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