Kansas State Senate elections, 2016

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2016 Kansas Senate Elections
Primary	August 2, 2016
General	November 8, 2016

All 40 seats in the Kansas State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.

Introductions[edit]

Elections for the Kansas State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on August 2, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.

Majority control[edit]

See also: Partisan composition of state senates

Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Kansas State Senate:

Incumbents retiring[edit]

Eight incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:

Name	Party	Current Office
Kay Wolf	Republican	Senate District 7
Jeff King	Republican	Senate District 15
Michael O'Donnell	Republican	Senate District 25
Leslie Donovan	Republican	Senate District 27
Steve Abrams	Republican	Senate District 32
Mitch Holmes	Republican	Senate District 33
Garrett Love	Republican	Senate District 38
Ralph Ostmeyer	Republican	Senate District 40

2016 election competitiveness[edit]

Kansas saw improvement in electoral competitiveness.

Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Kansas performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »

• In the Kansas State Senate, there were eight Democratic incumbents and 32 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 primary challenges in the Republican primary.

• In the House, there were 28 Democratic incumbents and 97 Republican incumbents. Twenty-four state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 28 primary challenges in the Republican primary.

• Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.

• The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.

• More details on electoral competitiveness in Kansas can be found below.

Primary election[edit]

In the primary elections held on August 2, 2016, six incumbents were defeated in the state Senate, while nine incumbents were defeated in the state House. Outside of the one incumbent Democrat who was defeated in the House, the other 14 incumbents who were ousted were conservative Republicans displaced by moderate Republicans running against the conservative policies of Gov. Sam Brownback (R). Before the 2016 primary, moderate Republicans had been losing ground in the state legislature, shifting from a more moderate Republican-controlled state legislature to a more conservative one after the 2012 elections. In 2012, 18 Republican incumbents were unseated.

Before the primary, there were 25 conservative incumbents in the Senate that would follow the governor's agenda. Following the primary results, the number dropped to 18 conservative members. The House saw a similar number of conservative seats change to moderate.^[2]

Senate incumbents defeated[edit]

• John Skubal defeated incumbent Jeff Melcher in the District 11 Republican primary by a 56-44 margin.
• Bruce Givens defeated incumbent Forrest Knox in the District 14 Republican primary by a 52-48 margin.
• Dinah Sykes defeated incumbent Greg Smith in the District 21 Republican primary by a 58-42 margin.
• Randall Hardy defeated incumbent Tom Arpke in the District 24 Republican primary by a 47-42 margin.
• Edward Berger defeated incumbent Terry Bruce in the District 34 Republican primary by a 57-43 margin.
• State Rep. John Doll defeated incumbent Larry Powell in the District 39 Republican primary by a 57-43 margin.

Senate leadership changes[edit]

In the past two election cycles, members of the Republican leadership had been defeated in Senate primary races. In 2016, Senate Majority Leader Terry Bruce (R) was defeated, while Senate President Stephen Morris (R) was defeated in 2012.

Heading into the general election, Kansas was one of 23 Republican trifecta states. Read more about party control in Kansas »

List of candidates[edit]

General election[edit]

2016 Kansas Senate general election candidates
District	Democrat	Republican	Other
1	Jerry Henry: 13,076	Dennis Pyle: 18,283 (I) a
2	Marci Francisco: 24,147 (I) a	Meredith Richey: 12,378
3	Tom Holland: 17,214 (I) a	Echo Van Meteren: 16,189
4	David Haley (I) a	No candidate
5	Bill Hutton: 12,828	Steve Fitzgerald: 13,336 (I) a
6	Pat Pettey: 12,640 (I) a	No candidate	Jason Conley: 5,213 (L)
7	Megan England: 18,884	Barbara Bollier: 22,439 a
8	Don McGuire: 17,758	Jim Denning: 19,847 (I) a
9	Chris Morrow: 13,708	Julia Lynn: 20,574 (I) a
10	Vicki Hiatt: 17,722	Mary Pilcher-Cook: 18,673 (I) a
11	Skip Fannen: 13,983	John Skubal: 25,992 a
12	Christopher Johnston: 6,918	Caryn Tyson: 18,998 (I) a
13	Lynn Grant: 12,291	Jacob LaTurner: 15,737 (I) a
14	Mark Pringle: 7,702	Bruce Givens: 20,452 a
15	Chuck Schmidt: 9,963	Dan Goddard: 15,511 a
16	Gabriel Costilla: 11,467	Ty Masterson: 20,980 (I) a
17	Susan Fowler: 9,147	Jeff Longbine: 13,161 (I) a
18	Laura Kelly: 15,007 (I) a	Dave Jackson: 14,076
19	Anthony Hensley: 16,181 (I) a	Zach Haney: 12,068
20	Candace Ayars: 11,775	Vicki Schmidt: 22,216 (I) a
21	Logan Heley: 15,287	Dinah Sykes: 18,149 a	Michael Kerner: 2,617 (L)
22	Tom Hawk (I) a	No candidate
23	Spencer Kerfoot: 12,551	Robert Olson: 19,277 (I) a
24	Donald Merriman: 11,228	Randall Hardy: 16,195 a
25	Lynn Rogers: 11,704 a	Jim Price: 8,308
26	Benjamin Poteete: 8,911	Dan Kerschen: 20,274 (I) a
27	Tony Hunter: 11,209	Gene Suellentrop: 22,252 a
28	Keith Humphrey: 9,353	Mike Petersen: 9,915 (I) a
29	Oletha Faust-Goudeau (I) a	No candidate
30	Anabel Larumbe: 11,786	Susan Wagle: 16,636 (I) a
31	J. Michelle Vann: 8,026	Carolyn McGinn: 23,463 (I) a
32	Don Shimkus: 9,844	Larry Alley: 16,221 a
33	Matt Bristow: 6,467	Mary Jo Taylor: 21,114 a
34	Homer Gilson: 4,664	Edward Berger: 21,559 a
35	Levi Morris: 8,538	Rick Wilborn: 21,271 (I) a
36	Brian Angevine: 4,686	Elaine Bowers: 26,816 (I) a
37	Kevin King: 11,709	Molly Baumgardner: 24,965 (I) a
38	Miguel Angel Rodriguez: 4,130	Bud Estes: 12,884 a
39	A. Zacheriah Worf: 3,421	John Doll: 12,884 a
40	Alex Herman: 8,308	Rick Billinger: 23,964 a
Notes	• An (I) denotes an incumbent.
	• Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project.

Primary election[edit]

2016 Kansas Senate primary candidates
District	Democrat	Republican	Other
1	Jerry Henry a	Dennis Pyle (I) a
2	Marci Francisco (I) a	Meredith Richey a
3	Tom Holland (I) a	Echo Van Meteren a
4	David Haley (I) a	No candidate
5	Bill Hutton: 2,570 a Donald Terrien: 899	Steve Fitzgerald (I) a
6	Pat Pettey (I) a	No candidate	Jason Conley (L) a
7	Megan England a	Barbara Bollier a
8	Don McGuire a	Jim Denning (I) a
9	Chris Morrow a	Julia Lynn (I) a
10	Vicki Hiatt a	Mary Pilcher-Cook (I) a
11	Skip Fannen a	Jeff Melcher: 4,360 (I) John Skubal: 5,665 a
12	Christopher Johnston a	Caryn Tyson (I) a
13	Lynn Grant a	Jacob LaTurner (I) a
14	Mark Pringle: 1,174 a Carl Shay Jr.: 980	Bruce Givens: 6,513 a Forrest Knox: 5,900 (I)
15	Chuck Schmidt a	Dan Goddard: 3,549 a Virgil Peck: 3,378
16	Gabriel Costilla a	Ty Masterson: 4,697 (I) a Troy Tabor II: 3,226
17	Susan Fowler a	Jeff Longbine (I) a
18	Laura Kelly (I) a	Dave Jackson a
19	Anthony Hensley (I) a	Zach Haney a
20	Candace Ayars: 1,755 a Rick Munoz Cortez: 760 Clarence Hinchy: 230 Dennis Rogers: 1,005	Joe Patton: 5,110 Vicki Schmidt: 5,853 (I) a
21	Michael Czerniewski: 663 Logan Heley: 2,956 a	Greg Smith: 3,226 (I) Dinah Sykes: 4,442 a	Michael Kerner (L) a
22	Tom Hawk (I) a	No candidate
23	Spencer Kerfoot a	Robert Olson (I) a
24	Donald Merriman a	Tom Arpke: 3,884 (I) Randall Hardy: 4,307 a John Price: 1,103
25	Lynn Rogers a	William Eveland: 890 Jim Price: 1,907 a
26	Benjamin Poteete a	Byron Dunlavy: 1,446 Dan Kerschen: 3,913 (I) a
27	Tony Hunter a	Lori Graham: 3,987 Gene Suellentrop: 4,085 a
28	Keith Humphrey a	Jo Hillman: 681 Mike Petersen: 2,003 (I) a
29	Oletha Faust-Goudeau (I) a	No candidate
30	Anabel Larumbe: 1,230 a Nathan Tokala: 661	Susan Wagle (I) a
31	J. Michelle Vann a	Renee Erickson: 4,518 Carolyn McGinn: 4,776 (I) a
32	Don Shimkus a	Larry Alley a
33	Matt Bristow a	Larry Salmans: 6,816 Mary Jo Taylor: 7,334 a
34	Homer Gilson a	Edward Berger: 6,279 a Terry Bruce: 4,701 (I)
35	Levi Morris a	Rick Wilborn (I) a
36	Brian Angevine a	Elaine Bowers (I) a
37	Kevin King a	Molly Baumgardner (I) a
38	Miguel Angel Rodriguez a	Bud Estes: 4,488 a Joyce Warshaw: 2,438
39	A. Zacheriah Worf a	John Doll: 4,664 a Larry Powell: 4,246 (I)
40	Alex Herman a	Rick Billinger a
Notes	• An (I) denotes an incumbent.
	• Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project.

Margins of victory[edit]

The average margin of victory for contested races in the Kansas State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 40 races in the Kansas State Senate in 2016, 37 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 28.1 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.^[3]

Kansas State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent
District	Winning Party	Margin of Victory
District 3	D	3.1 percent
District 5	R	1.9 percent
District 7	R	8.6 percent
District 8	R	5.6 percent
District 10	R	2.6 percent
District 18	D	3.2 percent
District 21	R	7.9 percent
District 28	R	2.9 percent

Kansas State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party	Elections won	Average margin of victory[4]	Races with incumbent victories	Average margin of victory for incumbents[4]	Unopposed incumbents	Unopposed races	Percent unopposed
Democratic	9	18.6 percent	8	18.9 percent	3	3	33.3 percent
Republican	31	29.9 percent	18	25.7 percent	0	0	N/A
Total	40	28.1 percent	26	24.2 percent	3	3	7.5 percent

Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Kansas State Senate districts in 2016.

Important dates and deadlines[edit]

See also: Kansas elections, 2016

The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Kansas in 2016.

Competitiveness[edit]

Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]

In 4 of the 40 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. Four Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.

Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 36 (90.0%) of the 40 seats up for election.

Primary challenges[edit]

Eleven incumbents faced primary competition on August 2. Eight incumbents did not seek re-election and another 21 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary:

• District 11: Jeff Melcher (R)
• District 14: Forrest Knox (R)
• District 21: Greg Smith (R)
• District 24: Tom Arpke (R)
• District 34: Terry Bruce (R)
• District 39: Larry Powell (R)

Retired incumbents[edit]

Eight incumbents did not run for re-election, while 32 (80.0%) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, eight Republicans, can be found above.

Results from 2014[edit]

See also: 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.

Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.

The following table details Kansas' rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.

Historical context[edit]

See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Campaign contributions[edit]

The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Kansas in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.^[5]

Qualifications[edit]

Section 4 of Article 2 of the Kansas Constitution states: "During the time that any person is a candidate for nomination or election to the legislature and during the term of each legislator, such candidate or legislator shall be and remain a qualified elector who resides in his or her district."^[6]

See also[edit]

• Kansas State Senate
• Kansas State Legislature
• State legislative elections, 2016

External links[edit]

Suggest a link

• Kansas Secretary of State - Candidate list

Footnotes[edit]

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