Missouri State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Missouri Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | August 2, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
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A total of 18 seats out of the 34 seats in the Missouri State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber.[1]
Missouri state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction[edit]
Elections for the Missouri State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on August 2, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 29, 2016.
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Missouri State Senate:
| Missouri State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 7 | 9 | |
| Republican Party | 24 | 25 | |
| Vacancy | 3 | 0 | |
| Total | 34 | 34 | |
Retired incumbents[edit]
Three incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Schmitt |  Republican |
Senate District 15 |
| Kurt Schaefer | Republican |
Senate District 19 |
| David Pearce | Republican |
Senate District 21 |
Note: District 11 and District 23 were vacant. Those two seats were previously held by Paul LeVota (D) and Tom Dempsey (R).
Note: District 4 was vacant. A special election was held on November 8 to fill the seat left vacant by Joseph Keaveny (D).
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Missouri sees a drop in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Missouri performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Missouri State Senate, there were 9 Democratic incumbents and 25 Republican incumbents. One incumbent faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 45 Democratic incumbents, 117 Republican incumbents, and one independent incumbent. Eight state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 13 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Missouri can be found below.
Races we watched[edit]
Ballotpedia identified five notable Missouri state legislative races in 2016, two of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Missouri races »
Primary contests[edit]
- Two Republican candidates competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Andrew Koenig ☐ Rick Stream
General election contests[edit]
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent in a closely divided district.
- ☑ Scott Sifton (Inc.) ☐ Randy Jotte
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
| 2016 Missouri Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
 Other
|
| 1 | Scott Sifton: 48,926 (I)  |
Randy Jotte: 43,227 | |
| 3 | No candidate | Gary Romine: 54,414 (I) |
Edward Weissler: 12,555 (G) |
| 4 | Jacob Hummel |
Bryan Young | Michael Lewis |
| 5 | Jamilah Nasheed: 53,339 (I) |
No candidate | Steve Schaper: 9,195 (L) |
| 7 | Jason Holsman: 60,759 (I) |
No candidate | Jeanne Bojarski: 15,931 (L) |
| 9 | Shalonn Curls (I) |
No candidate | |
| 11 | John Rizzo: 33,071 |
Brent Lasater: 30,318 | |
| 13 | Gina Walsh (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | Stephen Eagleton: 40,193 | Andrew Koenig: 62,988 |
|
| 17 | J. Ranen Bechthold: 32,422 | Ryan Silvey: 51,262 (I) |
|
| 19 | Stephen Webber: 43,179 | Caleb Rowden: 45,335 |
|
| 21 | ElGene Ver Dught: 19,988 | Denny Hoskins: 50,288 |
Bill Wayne: 4,077 (L) |
| 23 | Richard Orr: 34,651 | Bill Eigel: 56,870 |
Bill Slantz: 3,014 (L) |
| 25 | Bill Burlison: 19,607 | Doug Libla: 44,373 (I) |
|
| 27 | Donnie Owens: 19,486 | Wayne Wallingford: 56,750 (I) |
|
| 29 | No candidate | David Sater (I) |
|
| 31 | No candidate | Ed Emery: 57,296 (I) |
Lora Young: 10,007 (L) Tim Wells: 11,798 (Ind.) |
| 33 | No candidate | Mike Cunningham (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election[edit]
| 2016 Missouri Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
 Libertarian
|
| 1 | Scott Sifton (I) |
Randy Jotte |
No candidate |
| 3 | No candidate | Gary Romine (I) |
No candidate |
| 5 | Jamilah Nasheed (I): 17,156 Dylan Hassinger: 4,469 |
No candidate | Steve Schaper
|
| 7 | Jason Holsman (I) |
No candidate | Jeanne Bojarski
|
| 9 | Shalonn Curls (I) |
No candidate | No candidate |
| 11 | John Rizzo: 4,571 Jess Podhola: 3,750 Anthony Banks: 718 Mary DiCarlo: 862 |
Brent Lasater |
No candidate |
| 13 | Gina Walsh (I) |
No candidate | No candidate |
| 15 | Mark Boyko: 5,330 Stephen Eagleton: 5,494 |
Andrew Koenig: 13,756 Rick Stream: 12,130 |
No candidate |
| 17 | J. Ranen Bechthold |
Ryan Silvey (I) |
No candidate |
| 19 | Stephen Webber |
Caleb Rowden |
No candidate |
| 21 | ElGene Ver Dught |
Denny Hoskins: 11,219 Mike McGhee: 7,954 |
Bill Wayne
|
| 23 | Richard Orr: 4,542 Greg Upchurch: 2,934 |
Bill Eigel: 11,142 Anne Zerr: 10,757 Mike Carter: 5,746 |
Bill Slantz
|
| 25 | Bill Burlison |
Doug Libla (I) |
No candidate |
| 27 | Donnie Owens |
Wayne Wallingford (I) |
No candidate |
| 29 | No candidate | David Sater (I) |
No candidate |
| 31 | No candidate | Ed Emery: 17,320 (I) Bill Yarberry: 5,777 |
Lora Young
|
| 33 | No candidate | Mike Cunningham (I) |
No candidate |
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Missouri State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 17 races in the Missouri State Senate in 2016, 13 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 35.3 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Republican candidates in the Missouri State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 11 races. In the nine races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 35.4 percent. Democrats won six races in 2016. In the four races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 34.9 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Three of the 13 contested races in 2016—23.1 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won two races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Missouri State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 1 D 6.2 percent District 11 D 4.3 percent District 19 R 2.4 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Missouri State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 12 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the eight winning Missouri State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 45.7 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Missouri State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Seven Republican incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 46 percent. Five Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 45.1 percent. |
Missouri State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 6 34.9 percent 5 45.1 percent 2 2 33.3 percent Republican 11 35.4 percent 7 46.0 percent 2 2 18.2 percent Total 17 35.3 percent 12 45.7 percent 4 4 23.5 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Missouri State Senate districts in 2016.
| Missouri State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 6.2 percent |
| District 3 | R | 62.5 percent |
| District 5 | R | 70.6 percent |
| District 7 | R | 58.5 percent |
| District 9 | D | Unopposed |
| District 11 | D | 4.3 percent |
| District 13 | D | Unopposed |
| District 15 | D | 22.1 percent |
| District 17 | R | 22.5 percent |
| District 19 | R | 2.4 percent |
| District 21 | D | 40.8 percent |
| District 23 | D | 23.5 percent |
| District 25 | D | 38.7 percent |
| District 27 | D | 48.9 percent |
| District 29 | R | Unopposed |
| District 31 | R | 57.5 percent |
| District 33 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Missouri elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Missouri in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| November 7, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period opens for presidential preference primary | |
| December 22, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period closes for presidential preference primary | |
| January 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | January quarterly report due (for period ending December 31, 2015) | |
| February 23, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period opens for primary election | |
| March 15, 2016 | Election date | Presidential preference primary election | |
| March 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period closes for primary election | |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | April quarterly report due (for period ending March 31, 2016) | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | July quarterly report due (for period ending June 30, 2016) | |
| July 19, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period opens for general election | |
| July 25, 2016 | Campaign finance | 8-day before election report due (primary) | |
| August 2, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| August 23, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing period closes for general election | |
| September 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day after election report due (primary) | |
| October 17, 2016 | Campaign finance | October quarterly report due (for period ending September 30, 2016) | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | 8-day before election report due (general) | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day after election report due (general) | |
| Sources: Missouri Secretary of State, "2016 Missouri Election Calendar," accessed June 12, 2015 Missouri Ethics Commission, "2016 Campaign Finance Filing Requirements and Dates," accessed July 17, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]
In 8 of the 18 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of four Democrats and four Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 10 (55.5%) of the 18 seats up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
Two incumbents faced primary competition on August 2. There were five open seats and another 10 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents[edit]
Three incumbents did not run for re-election, while 12 ran for re-election. There were also two seats that are vacant. A list of those retiring incumbents, all Republicans, can be found above.
Impact of term limits[edit]
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Missouri State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Missouri voters approved Amendment 13 in 1992. Amendment 13 created Section 8 of Article III of the Missouri Constitution, limiting state senators to two four-year terms. This is a lifetime limit, as is the case in 5 other states with state legislative term limits. Section 8 was later amended by Amendment 3 in 2002 so that it does not apply to partial terms.
Altogether, there are 34 Missouri State Senators. In 2016, three of them who were current members, all Republicans, were ineligible to run for the senate again in November.
The state senators who were term-limited in 2016 were:
Republicans (3):
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Missouri's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Missouri General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 16.7% | 13.3% | 50.6% | 26.9 | 30 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Missouri in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Missouri State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 31 | $13,609,757 |
| 2012 | 41 | $13,309,748 |
| 2010 | 50 | $13,925,726 |
| 2008 | 37 | $8,685,511 |
| 2006 | 44 | $7,947,114 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Missouri, at $439,024 per candidate, is ranked four of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications[edit]
To be eligible to serve in the Missouri State Senate, a candidate must:[7]
| “ |
|
” |
See also[edit]
External links[edit]
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Democrats and Republicans simply reclaimed seats left vacant prior to the election.
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Missouri," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ 2010 Elected Officials Qualifications
- ↑ Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
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