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2016 New Mexico House Elections | |
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Primary | June 7, 2016 |
General | November 8, 2016 |
2016 Election Results | |
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2016 Elections | |
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After losing the chamber in 2014, the Democrats regained control over the House, putting Democrats in control of both legislative chambers. A pickup of five seats in the November general election gave Democrats a six-seat majority. Senate Democrats also improved on their majority, gaining two seats and moving the chamber to a 10-seat Democratic majority.
All 70 seats in the New Mexico House of Representatives were up for election in 2016.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the New Mexico State House as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These are the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Elections for the New Mexico House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 7, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 8, 2016.
The Republican Party took control of the House in 2014. Prior to that election, Democrats held the chamber by a five-seat majority (37-33). After 2014, Republicans held a five-seat majority.
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the New Mexico House of Representatives:
New Mexico House of Representatives | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
Democratic Party | 33 | 38 | |
Republican Party | 37 | 32 | |
Total | 70 | 70 |
The following incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
Name | Party | Current Office |
---|---|---|
Conrad James | Republican | House District 24 |
Dona Irwin | Democratic | House District 32 |
Jeff Steinborn | Democratic | House District 35 |
Dianne Hamilton | Republican | House District 38 |
Luciano Varela | Democratic | House District 48 |
Nora Espinoza | Republican | House District 59 |
James Roger Madalena, Jr. | Democratic | House District 65 |
W. Ken Martinez | Democratic | House District 69 |
Note: W. Ken Martinez (D) resigned from the state House on July 20, 2016. Harry Garcia (D) was appointed to the seat on September 9, 2016.
The New Mexico House of Representatives was identified by RLCC as a defensive target.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 9, Senate District 29, House District 24, and House District 32 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Two of those seats, both in the Senate, involved an incumbent.[3][4]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named House District 4, House District 15, and House District 30 in their "2016 Essential Races."[5][6]
The Democratic Party lost control of the state House in 2014. Democrats needed to flip just three seats to regain control of the state House. Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, believed that Democrats had a great chance of retaking the New Mexico State House—as well as other chambers in the U.S. that were under Republican control—because of it being a presidential election year. Post said, "We thought that no matter who the presidential nominee was, we thought we had an excellent shot at winning back the Minnesota House, winning back the New Mexico House, for example."[7]
Debbie Maestas, chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico, stated that five Republican incumbents were vulnerable in 2016. She did not name the five incumbents, but she said that "[w]e’ve got to make sure and push hard on those efforts."[8] House Republican incumbents in House Districts 15, 24, 37, and 39 all won election in 2014 by a small margin.
New Mexico sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well New Mexico performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
Ballotpedia identified seven notable New Mexico state primary races in 2016, four of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable New Mexico races »
Ballotpedia identified 13 notable New Mexico state general election races in 2016, seven of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable New Mexico races »
2016 New Mexico House candidates | |||
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District | Democrat | Republican | Other |
1 | No candidate | Rodney Montoya: 10,717 (I) | |
2 | Kenneth Robinson: 2,369 | James R.J. Strickler: 6,083 (I) | |
3 | No candidate | Paul Bandy: 8,299 (I) | |
4 | Glojean B. Todacheene: 4,257 | Sharon E. Clahchischilliage: 5,056 (I) | |
5 | D. Wonda Johnson: 7,558 (I) | No candidate | |
6 | Eliseo Alcon: 6,707 (I) | No candidate | |
7 | Arturo Fierro: 3,964 | Kelly K. Fajardo: 5,149 (I) | |
8 | Jim Danner: 4,493 | Alonzo Baldonado: 7,251 (I) | |
9 | Patricia Lundstrom: 6,446 (I) | No candidate | |
10 | G. Andres Romero: 4,821 (I) | No candidate | Robert Schiller: 2,337 (Ind.) |
11 | Javier I. Martinez: 10,118 (I) | No candidate | |
12 | Patricio Ruiloba: 5,036 (I) | No candidate | |
13 | Patricia A. Roybal Caballero: 5,525 (I) | No candidate | |
14 | Miguel Garcia: 6,209 (I) | No candidate | |
15 | Ane Romero: 6,467 | Sarah Maestas Barnes: 7,358 (I) | |
16 | Antonio Maestas: 8,256 (I) | No candidate | |
17 | Deborah Armstrong: 8,640 (I) | No candidate | |
18 | Gail Chasey: 9,922 (I) | No candidate | |
19 | Sheryl Williams Stapleton: (I) 8,289 | No candidate | |
20 | Giovanni A. Haqani: 5,389 | Jim Dines: 7,350 (I) | |
21 | Debra Marie Sarinana: 4,685 | No candidate | |
22 | John Wallace: 7,510 | James Smith: 9,630 (I) | |
23 | Daymon B. Ely: 7,124 | Paul Pacheco: 7,022 (I) | |
24 | Elizabeth L. Thomson: 6,798 | Christina Marie Hall: 6,198 | |
25 | Christine Trujillo: 9,807 (I) | No candidate | |
26 | Georgene Louis: 4,800 (I) | No candidate | |
27 | Ronald E. Krise: 6,457 | Lorenzo Larranaga: 9,110 (I) | |
28 | No candidate | Jimmie Hall: 10,279 (I) | |
29 | Ronnie Martinez: 6,967 | David Adkins: 6,976 (I) | |
30 | Natalie R. Figueroa: 6,267 | Nathaniel Gentry: 6,841 (I) | |
31 | Robert L. Scott: 7,051 | William Rehm: 10,760 (I) | |
32 | Candie G. Sweetser: 4,486 | Vicki K. Chavez: 4,256 | |
33 | Bill McCamley: 6,605 (I) | Neal L. Hooks: 3,619 | |
34 | Bealquin Bill Gomez: 5,757 (I) | No candidate | |
35 | Angelica Rubio: 6,412 | Joseph E. Bishop: 3,782 | |
36 | Nathan P. Small: 5,435 | Andrew Nunez: 4,184 (I) | |
37 | Joanne J. Ferrary: 7,483 | Terry McMillan: 6,760 (I) | |
38 | Mary E. Hotvedt: 5,900 | Rebecca L. Dow: 7,149 | |
39 | Rodolpho Martinez: 5,103 | John L. Zimmerman: 4,880 (I) | |
40 | Nick Salazar: 9,038 (I) | No candidate | |
41 | Debbie Rodella: 8,088 (I) | No candidate | |
42 | Roberto Gonzales: 10,654 (I) | No candidate | |
43 | Stephanie Garcia Richard: 8,452 (I) | Sharon Stover: 5,910 | |
44 | No candidate | Jane Powdrell-Culbert: 12,245 (I) | |
45 | Jim Trujillo: 9,425 (I) | No candidate | |
46 | Carl Trujillo: 11,563 (I) | No candidate | |
47 | Brian Egolf, Jr.: 13,740 (I) | Roger A. Gonzales: 3,675 | |
48 | Linda Trujillo: 10,572 | No candidate | |
49 | No candidate | Don Tripp: 8,864 (I) | |
50 | Matthew McQueen: 8,187 (I) | Jeremy R. Tremko: 5,805 | |
51 | Denise A. Lang: 3,353 | Yvette Herrell: 6,447 (I) | |
52 | Doreen Y. Gallegos: 5,796 (I) | No candidate | |
53 | Willie Madrid: 2,666 | Ricky Little: 2,803 (I) | |
54 | No candidate | James Townsend: 7,098 (I) | Freddie Joe Nichols, III: 2,292 (Ind.) |
55 | No candidate | Cathrynn Brown: 9,280 (I) | |
56 | No candidate | Zachary Cook: 7,672 (I) | |
57 | Donna I. Tillman: 5,013 | Jason C. Harper: 6,117 (I) | |
58 | No candidate | Candy Spence Ezzell: 5,001 (I) | |
59 | Richard Garcia: 3,465 | Greg Nibert: 8,594 | |
60 | No candidate | Timothy Lewis: 9,824 (I) | |
61 | No candidate | David M. Gallegos: 4,735 (I) | |
62 | No candidate | Larry Scott: 7,948 (I) | |
63 | George Dodge Jr.: 5,142 (I) | No candidate | |
64 | No candidate | Randal Crowder: 7,732 (I) | |
65 | Derrick J. Lente: 7,162 | No candidate | |
66 | No candidate | Bob Wooley: 8,427 (I) | |
67 | No candidate | Dennis Roch: 8,464 (I) | |
68 | No candidate | Monica Youngblood: 9,637 (I) | |
69 | Harry Garcia: 6,155 (I) | No candidate | |
70 | Tomas E. Salazar: 8,125 (I) | No candidate | |
Notes:
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The average margin of victory for contested races in the New Mexico House of Representatives in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 70 races in the New Mexico House of Representatives in 2016, 29 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 18 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[9]
Republican candidates in the New Mexico House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 32 races. In the 17 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.4 percent. Democrats won 38 races in 2016. In the 12 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.5 percent. |
More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 12 of the 29 contested races in 2016—41.4 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Seven races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won seven races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
New Mexico House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent | ||
---|---|---|
District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
District 4 | R | 8.6 percent |
District 15 | R | 6.4 percent |
District 23 | D | 0.7 percent |
District 24 | D | 4.6 percent |
District 29 | R | 0.1 percent |
District 30 | R | 4.4 percent |
District 32 | D | 2.6 percent |
District 37 | D | 5.1 percent |
District 38 | R | 9.6 percent |
District 39 | D | 2.2 percent |
District 53 | R | 2.5 percent |
District 57 | R | 9.9 percent |
The average margin of victory for incumbents in the New Mexico House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 56 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 20 winning New Mexico House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 20.9 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
Democratic incumbents in the New Mexico House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 26 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.3 percent. 30 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 15 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.4 percent. |
New Mexico House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Elections won | Average margin of victory[10] | Races with incumbent victories | Average margin of victory for incumbents[10] | Unopposed incumbents | Unopposed races | Percent unopposed |
Democratic | 38 | 17.5 percent | 26 | 31.3 percent | 21 | 26 | 68.4 percent |
Republican | 32 | 18.4 percent | 30 | 17.4 percent | 15 | 15 | 46.9 percent |
Total | 70 | 18.0 percent | 56 | 20.9 percent | 36 | 41 | 58.6 percent |
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in New Mexico House of Representatives districts in 2016.
New Mexico House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
---|---|---|
District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
District 1 | R | Unopposed |
District 2 | R | 43.9 percent |
District 3 | R | Unopposed |
District 4 | R | 8.6 percent |
District 5 | D | Unopposed |
District 6 | D | Unopposed |
District 7 | R | 13.0 percent |
District 8 | R | 23.5 percent |
District 9 | D | Unopposed |
District 10 | D | 34.7 percent |
District 11 | D | Unopposed |
District 12 | D | Unopposed |
District 13 | D | Unopposed |
District 14 | D | Unopposed |
District 15 | R | 6.4 percent |
District 16 | D | Unopposed |
District 17 | D | Unopposed |
District 18 | D | Unopposed |
District 19 | D | Unopposed |
District 20 | R | 15.4 percent |
District 21 | D | Unopposed |
District 22 | R | 12.4 percent |
District 23 | D | 0.7 percent |
District 24 | D | 4.6 percent |
District 25 | D | Unopposed |
District 26 | D | Unopposed |
District 27 | R | 17.0 percent |
District 28 | R | Unopposed |
District 29 | R | 0.1 percent |
District 30 | R | 4.4 percent |
District 31 | R | 20.8 percent |
District 32 | D | 2.6 percent |
District 33 | D | 29.2 percent |
District 34 | D | Unopposed |
District 35 | D | 25.8 percent |
District 36 | D | 13.0 percent |
District 37 | D | 5.1 percent |
District 38 | R | 9.6 percent |
District 39 | D | 2.2 percent |
District 40 | D | Unopposed |
District 41 | D | Unopposed |
District 42 | D | Unopposed |
District 43 | D | 17.7 percent |
District 44 | R | Unopposed |
District 45 | D | Unopposed |
District 46 | D | Unopposed |
District 47 | D | 57.8 percent |
District 48 | D | Unopposed |
District 49 | R | Unopposed |
District 50 | D | 17.0 percent |
District 51 | R | 31.6 percent |
District 52 | D | Unopposed |
District 53 | R | 2.5 percent |
District 54 | R | 51.2 percent |
District 55 | R | Unopposed |
District 56 | R | Unopposed |
District 57 | R | 9.9 percent |
District 58 | R | Unopposed |
District 59 | R | 42.5 percent |
District 60 | R | Unopposed |
District 61 | R | Unopposed |
District 62 | R | Unopposed |
District 63 | D | Unopposed |
District 64 | R | Unopposed |
District 65 | D | Unopposed |
District 66 | R | Unopposed |
District 67 | R | Unopposed |
District 68 | R | Unopposed |
District 69 | D | Unopposed |
District 70 | D | Unopposed |
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in New Mexico in 2016.
Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
February 2, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for major party candidates for federal and statewide office | |
March 8, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for major party candidates for all other offices | |
April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | First primary report due | |
May 9, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second primary report due | |
June 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Third primary report due | |
June 7, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
June 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for independent and minor party candidates | |
July 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fourth primary report due | |
September 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | First general report due | |
October 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second general report due | |
November 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Third general report due | |
November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fourth general report due | |
Sources: New Mexico Secretary of State, "2016 Election FAQ's," accessed June 12, 2015 New Mexico Secretary of State, "Campaign Finance Reporting Schedule," accessed August 7, 2015 |
In 43 of the 70 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 27 Democrats and 16 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 27 (38.5 percent) of the 70 districts up for election.
Five incumbents faced primary competition on June 7. Seven incumbents did not seek re-election and another 58 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Seven incumbents did not run for re-election, while 63 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents—four Democrats and three Republicans—can be found above. Another incumbent, W. Ken Martinez (D), did not seek re-election, but he resigned before the end of his term and a new member was appointed to the seat.
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
Overall Competitiveness | |||
---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
% Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
% Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
% Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details New Mexico's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
New Mexico Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
% Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
15.7% | 11.9% | 45.7% | 24.4 | 34 |
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in New Mexico in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[11]
New Mexico House of Representatives Donations | ||
---|---|---|
Year | Candidates | Amount |
2014 | 129 | $5,732,203 |
2012 | 142 | $4,834,065 |
2010 | 136 | $4,620,384 |
2008 | 125 | $3,954,763 |
2006 | 124 | $3,866,403 |
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. New Mexico, at $44,436 per candidate, is ranked 23 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[11][12]
Article 4, Section 3 of the New Mexico Constitution states: "Senators shall not be less than twenty-five years of age and representatives not less than twenty-one years of age at the time of their election. If any senator or representative permanently removes his residence from or maintains no residence in the district from which he was elected, then he shall be deemed to have resigned and his successor shall be selected as provided in Section 4 of this article. No person shall be eligible to serve in the legislature who, at the time of qualifying, holds any office of trust or profit with the state, county or national governments, except notaries public and officers of the militia who receive no salary."
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