Pennsylvania House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Pennsylvania House Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | April 26, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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All 203 seats in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained two seats after the November 2016 election.
Contents
Introduction[edit]
Elections for the Pennsylvania House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election was held on April 26, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was February 16, 2016.
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives:
| Pennsylvania House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 84 | 82 | |
| Republican Party | 119 | 121 | |
| Total | 203 | 203 | |
Incumbents retiring[edit]
Fifteen incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Santarsiero |  Democratic |
House District 31 |
| Nick Kotik | Democratic |
House District 45 |
| Peter Daley, II | Democratic |
House District 49 |
| R. Ted Harhai | Democratic |
House District 58 |
| Mike Regan |  Republican |
House District 92 |
| Kevin Schreiber | Democratic |
House District 95 |
| Mauree Gingrich | Republican |
House District 101 |
| John Payne | Republican |
House District 106 |
| Sandra Major | Republican |
House District 111 |
| Mike Vereb | Republican |
House District 150 |
| Chris Ross | Republican |
House District 158 |
| Thaddeus Kirkland | Democratic |
House District 159 |
| William Adolph, Jr. | Republican |
House District 165 |
| Julie Harhart | Republican |
House District 183 |
| Dwight Evans | Democratic |
House District 203 |
Note: Thomas Killion (R-168) declined to run for re-election. He was elected to the state Senate in a special election on April 26, 2016. Christopher Quinn (R) was elected to Killion's seat in a special election on July 12. He was sworn in to the chamber on August 18, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Pennsylvania saw a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Pennsylvania performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Pennsylvania State Senate, there were 19 Democratic incumbents and 31 Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. No incumbents faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 84 Democratic incumbents and 119 Republican incumbents. Sixteen state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. Nine incumbents faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Pennsylvania can be found below.
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
Primary election[edit]
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 203 races in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives in 2016, 113 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 29.6 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Republican candidates in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 121 races. In the 76 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.8 percent. Democrats won 82 races in 2016. In the 37 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.1 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 15 of the 113 contested races in 2016—13.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Seven races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won eight races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Pennsylvania House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 39 D 0.2 percent District 49 R 8.2 percent District 50 D 6.7 percent District 51 R 6.1 percent District 74 R 2.5 percent District 76 D 4.3 percent District 112 D 6.2 percent District 115 D 3.8 percent District 146 R 2.3 percent District 150 R 8.6 percent District 156 D 0.1 percent District 158 R 6.2 percent District 161 D 1.7 percent District 163 R 8.5 percent District 170 R 7.8 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 180 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 96 winning Pennsylvania House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 31.2 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 109 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 66 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.6 percent. 71 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 30 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 30.1 percent. |
Pennsylvania House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 82 29.1 percent 71 30.1 percent 41 45 54.9 percent Republican 121 29.8 percent 109 31.6 percent 43 45 37.2 percent Total 203 29.6 percent 180 31.2 percent 84 90 44.3 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Pennsylvania House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Pennsylvania House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 45.8 percent |
| District 2 | D | 27.5 percent |
| District 3 | D | 19.9 percent |
| District 4 | R | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | Unopposed |
| District 6 | R | 20.0 percent |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | R | 33.2 percent |
| District 9 | D | Unopposed |
| District 10 | R | 17.0 percent |
| District 11 | R | Unopposed |
| District 12 | R | 35.7 percent |
| District 13 | R | 25.0 percent |
| District 14 | R | Unopposed |
| District 15 | R | 25.9 percent |
| District 16 | D | Unopposed |
| District 17 | R | 42.5 percent |
| District 18 | R | Unopposed |
| District 19 | D | Unopposed |
| District 20 | D | 61.8 percent |
| District 21 | D | Unopposed |
| District 22 | D | Unopposed |
| District 23 | D | Unopposed |
| District 24 | D | Unopposed |
| District 25 | D | 24.8 percent |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | D | Unopposed |
| District 28 | R | 30.5 percent |
| District 29 | R | 23.9 percent |
| District 30 | R | Unopposed |
| District 31 | D | 0.2 percent |
| District 32 | D | Unopposed |
| District 33 | D | Unopposed |
| District 34 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | D | 25.0 percent |
| District 36 | D | Unopposed |
| District 37 | R | Unopposed |
| District 38 | D | 31.3 percent |
| District 39 | R | 36.8 percent |
| District 40 | R | 30.1 percent |
| District 41 | R | 23.9 percent |
| District 42 | D | Unopposed |
| District 43 | R | 33.9 percent |
| District 44 | R | Unopposed |
| District 45 | D | Unopposed |
| District 46 | R | 20.5 percent |
| District 47 | R | Unopposed |
| District 48 | D | Unopposed |
| District 49 | R | 8.2 percent |
| District 50 | D | 6.7 percent |
| District 51 | R | 6.1 percent |
| District 52 | R | 27.8 percent |
| District 53 | R | 19.1 percent |
| District 54 | R | Unopposed |
| District 55 | D | 12.8 percent |
| District 56 | R | Unopposed |
| District 57 | R | 30.3 percent |
| District 58 | R | 23.1 percent |
| District 59 | R | Unopposed |
| District 60 | R | 73.7 percent |
| District 61 | R | 13.1 percent |
| District 62 | R | 37.8 percent |
| District 63 | R | 51.3 percent |
| District 64 | R | 27.6 percent |
| District 65 | R | 40.0 percent |
| District 66 | R | Unopposed |
| District 67 | R | Unopposed |
| District 68 | R | Unopposed |
| District 69 | R | Unopposed |
| District 70 | D | 34.0 percent |
| District 71 | D | 18.0 percent |
| District 72 | D | 15.1 percent |
| District 73 | R | 42.2 percent |
| District 74 | R | 2.5 percent |
| District 75 | R | 45.5 percent |
| District 76 | D | 4.3 percent |
| District 77 | D | Unopposed |
| District 78 | R | Unopposed |
| District 79 | R | Unopposed |
| District 80 | R | Unopposed |
| District 81 | R | 27.5 percent |
| District 82 | R | Unopposed |
| District 83 | R | Unopposed |
| District 84 | R | Unopposed |
| District 85 | R | Unopposed |
| District 86 | R | Unopposed |
| District 87 | R | 25.4 percent |
| District 88 | R | 30.2 percent |
| District 89 | R | 45.0 percent |
| District 90 | R | Unopposed |
| District 91 | R | 33.0 percent |
| District 92 | R | 45.5 percent |
| District 93 | R | Unopposed |
| District 94 | R | Unopposed |
| District 95 | D | 22.1 percent |
| District 96 | D | 46.5 percent |
| District 97 | R | 26.3 percent |
| District 98 | R | Unopposed |
| District 99 | R | 48.5 percent |
| District 100 | R | 47.9 percent |
| District 101 | R | 34.0 percent |
| District 102 | R | 39.8 percent |
| District 103 | D | Unopposed |
| District 104 | R | 15.4 percent |
| District 105 | R | Unopposed |
| District 106 | R | Unopposed |
| District 107 | R | 43.2 percent |
| District 108 | R | 53.3 percent |
| District 109 | R | 29.7 percent |
| District 110 | R | Unopposed |
| District 111 | R | Unopposed |
| District 112 | D | 6.2 percent |
| District 113 | D | 38.6 percent |
| District 114 | D | 34.3 percent |
| District 115 | D | 3.8 percent |
| District 116 | R | 40.4 percent |
| District 117 | R | 80.4 percent |
| District 118 | D | Unopposed |
| District 119 | D | 12.5 percent |
| District 120 | R | 35.7 percent |
| District 121 | D | 56.2 percent |
| District 122 | R | 20.8 percent |
| District 123 | D | Unopposed |
| District 124 | R | Unopposed |
| District 125 | R | Unopposed |
| District 126 | D | Unopposed |
| District 127 | D | Unopposed |
| District 128 | R | Unopposed |
| District 129 | R | Unopposed |
| District 130 | R | Unopposed |
| District 131 | R | 25.7 percent |
| District 132 | D | 34.3 percent |
| District 133 | D | 16.6 percent |
| District 134 | R | Unopposed |
| District 135 | D | Unopposed |
| District 136 | D | Unopposed |
| District 137 | R | 31.2 percent |
| District 138 | R | 80.0 percent |
| District 139 | R | Unopposed |
| District 140 | D | Unopposed |
| District 141 | D | 31.2 percent |
| District 142 | R | Unopposed |
| District 143 | R | 27.5 percent |
| District 144 | R | Unopposed |
| District 145 | R | 16.6 percent |
| District 146 | R | 2.3 percent |
| District 147 | R | 26.7 percent |
| District 148 | D | 27.0 percent |
| District 149 | D | 33.7 percent |
| District 150 | R | 8.6 percent |
| District 151 | R | 21.6 percent |
| District 152 | R | 26.7 percent |
| District 153 | D | 32.5 percent |
| District 154 | D | 55.5 percent |
| District 155 | R | 15.9 percent |
| District 156 | D | 0.1 percent |
| District 157 | R | 11.6 percent |
| District 158 | R | 6.2 percent |
| District 159 | D | 51.2 percent |
| District 160 | R | 62.0 percent |
| District 161 | D | 1.7 percent |
| District 162 | R | 27.8 percent |
| District 163 | R | 8.6 percent |
| District 164 | D | 58.1 percent |
| District 165 | R | 12.0 percent |
| District 166 | D | 32.1 percent |
| District 167 | R | 13.5 percent |
| District 168 | R | 12.3 percent |
| District 169 | R | 61.4 percent |
| District 170 | R | 7.8 percent |
| District 171 | R | 37.1 percent |
| District 172 | D | 24.9 percent |
| District 173 | D | Unopposed |
| District 174 | D | Unopposed |
| District 175 | D | Unopposed |
| District 176 | R | Unopposed |
| District 177 | R | 10.3 percent |
| District 178 | R | 22.2 percent |
| District 179 | D | Unopposed |
| District 180 | D | Unopposed |
| District 181 | D | Unopposed |
| District 182 | D | Unopposed |
| District 183 | R | 15.8 percent |
| District 184 | D | Unopposed |
| District 185 | D | Unopposed |
| District 186 | D | Unopposed |
| District 187 | R | Unopposed |
| District 188 | D | Unopposed |
| District 189 | R | 27.0 percent |
| District 190 | D | Unopposed |
| District 191 | D | Unopposed |
| District 192 | D | Unopposed |
| District 193 | R | 48.7 percent |
| District 194 | D | 41.4 percent |
| District 195 | D | Unopposed |
| District 196 | R | Unopposed |
| District 197 | D | Unopposed |
| District 198 | D | Unopposed |
| District 199 | R | 28.5 percent |
| District 200 | D | 89.1 percent |
| District 201 | D | Unopposed |
| District 202 | D | Unopposed |
| District 203 | D | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Pennsylvania in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description |
| February 16, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day to file nomination petitions for the primary election |
| March 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Sixth Tuesday pre-primary report due |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second Friday pre-primary report due |
| April 26, 2016 | Election date | Primary election |
| May 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-primary report due |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day to file nomination petitions for the general election |
| September 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Sixth Tuesday pre-general report due |
| October 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second Friday pre-general report due |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day post-general report due |
| January 31, 2017 | Campaign finance | 2016 annual report due |
| Source: Pennsylvania Department of State, "2016 Election Calendar," accessed January 11, 2016 | ||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]
In 98 (48.2%) of the 203 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 51 Republicans and 47 Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 105 (51.7%) of the 203 districts up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
Twenty-five incumbents faced primary competition on April 26. Fourteen incumbents (as of the primary election) did not seek re-election in 2016, and another 164 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary:
- District 112: Frank Farina (D)
- District 192: Lynwood Savage (D)
- District 200: Tonyelle Cook-Artis (D)
- District 202: Mark Cohen (D)
Retired incumbents[edit]
Fifteen incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 188 (92.6%) ran for re-election. A list of the retiring incumbents—eight Republicans and seven Democrats—can be found above.
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates; additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
From 2010 (when the Competitiveness Index was established) to 2014, there was not an even-year election cycle that performed statistically worse than 2014 in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Pennsylvania's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Pennsylvania General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 11.4% | 20.8% | 45.6% | 25.9 | 32 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Pennsylvania in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Pennsylvania House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 388 | $35,161,996 |
| 2012 | 408 | $34,761,581 |
| 2010 | 444 | $36,171,575 |
| 2008 | 403 | $45,080,202 |
| 2006 | 531 | $50,080,848 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Pennsylvania, at $90,624 per candidate, is ranked eight of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications[edit]
Article II of the Pennsylvania Constitution requires that senators be at least 25 years old and representatives 21 years old. They are required to have lived in their respective districts for at least one year before their election ("unless absent on the public business of the United States" or of Pennsylvania) and must live in the districts they serve during their term.
See also[edit]
- Pennsylvania House of Representatives
- Pennsylvania State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2016
External links[edit]
- Pennsylvania Department of State - Candidate Information
- Pennsylvania Department of State - Primary election results
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Pennsylvania," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
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