2016 Presidential Election Date: November 8, 2016

Candidates Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates

Election coverage Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards

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See also Trump wins White House as “Blue Wall” crumbles

In 2016, 12 states and two congressional districts were key to deciding the outcome of the presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.^[1] In electoral votes, that came to 159, more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority and become president. Throughout 2016, polling was often tight in these states and districts, and their voting histories made their outcomes difficult to predict. For these reasons, we referred to them as "battlegrounds."

Why did these states have so much sway in the election?[edit]

The reason these states and two districts had so much sway in the 2016 presidential election was largely because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast, but the battleground states were still up for grabs. Clinton, for example, began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D.C. That's 74 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump began with an almost guaranteed 179 electoral votes—66 percent of 270—from 22 states. We knew this because of these states' past election results, demographic trends, and polling data. What this means is that 38 states and Washington, D.C.—a total of 379 electoral votes—were not competitive in 2016. But the battleground states were, and there were more than enough electoral votes between them to get either candidate to the White House.

Paths to victory[edit]

Clinton needed slightly fewer of these battleground states' electoral votes than Trump. To win, she needed only 70 of the 159 electoral votes in the battlegrounds, while Trump needed 91. Those 21 electoral votes that separated Clinton and Trump might not sound all that significant, but they were. Ballotpedia broke down all the different combinations of battleground states that could get Clinton and Trump to 270 electoral votes or higher. We found that Clinton had almost twice as many paths to victory as Trump, at 10,581 different combinations to 5,572, respectively. The 2016 battleground states are highlighted on the map below in grey. Maine and Nebraska are yellow because their second congressional districts were battlegrounds.^[1] States in blue and red are ones that were generally considered safe for Clinton and Trump, respectively.

What happened with the battleground states in the election?[edit]

See also: Splits between the Electoral College and popular vote

The states that Ballotpedia identified as "almost guaranteed" turned out to be correct. Clinton won 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D.C. Trump won 179 electoral votes from 22 states. With the battlegrounds, Clinton ended up winning four states—32 electoral votes—while Trump won eight states and the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, a total of 127 electoral votes. In other words, he won about 70 percent of the electoral votes available in battleground states. Trump's battleground states were Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida. Clinton's were Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Crucial to Trump's victory were Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. All three of these states were part of Clinton's so-called "firewall," a group of six states also including Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire that were thought to guarantee her a path to 270.

Full results from the 2016 presidential election are below. Full more on battleground states, scroll down past the results to the tabs below.

What is a battleground state?[edit]

What is a battleground state?[edit]

In presidential elections, some states are more predictable than others. For example, in the 2012 presidential election between Barack Obama (D) and Mitt Romney (R), most political observers knew that Hawaii would vote Democratic while South Dakota would vote Republican. A lot of this has to do with these states’ voting histories. Leading up to the 2012 election, the last time Hawaii had voted Republican was in 1984 when the state backed Ronald Reagan’s (R) re-election bid. On top of this, Obama won the state in 2008 by 45 points. South Dakota, on the other hand, had last voted Democratic in 1964, backing Lyndon Johnson (D) over Barry Goldwater (R). Republican John McCain won South Dakota in 2008 by almost nine points.

Less predictable states are typically referred to as “battleground” or “swing” states, states that are up for grabs by either party. Ohio offers a good example. In 2008 and 2012, Ohio voted Democratic. In 2004 and 2000, it voted Republican. In 1996 and 1992, it voted Democratic. And in 1988, 1984, and 1980, it voted Republican.

See also: Presidential voting trends by state and U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2016

Another standard feature of battleground states is that polling data and election results have shown them to be closer contests than more predictable states like Hawaii and South Dakota. Using Ohio as an example again, a poll two days before the 2012 election showed Obama tied with Romney 49 to 49 percent. Obama ended up winning the state 50.6 to 47.6. Compare that with a non-battleground state like Minnesota where a poll from November 3, 2012, showed Obama up by eight points. He won Minnesota by seven points.

In short, battleground states are states whose electoral history make them less predictable and typically feature comparatively close contests in terms of polling data and election results.

See also: U.S. House battlegrounds, 2016 and State legislative battleground chambers, 2016

But that’s not the only reason why battleground states are important. They are also important because they are contested. Either candidate has a reasonable shot at winning the state. But even more than that, battleground states can often decide an election. In 2000, for instance, Florida, another critical battleground state, ultimately swung the election in favor of George W. Bush (R). Consequently, battleground states are where presidential campaigns tend to spend the vast majority of their time, money, and resources—hence the word “battle.”

Arizona[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Arizona, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Arizona had 11 electoral votes, which was 2 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Arizona from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 84 percent chance Republican
  
• 538: 67 percent chance Republican
  
• Cook: Lean Republican
  
• UV: Lean Republican

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Arizona, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	44.6%	1,025,232	0
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	53.7%	1,233,654	11
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	1.4%	32,100	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.3%	7,816	0
	Write-in	Virgil Goode/James Clymer (write-in)	0%	289	0
	Write-in	Ross C. 'Rocky' Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez (write-in)	0%	119	0
	Write-in	Jill Reed/Tom Cary (write-in)	0%	17	0
	Write-in	Will Christensen/Kenneth Gibbs (write-in)	0%	14	0
	Write-in	Dennis Knill/David Gilder (write-in)	0%	7	0
	Write-in	Sheila Tittle/Matthew Turner (write-in)	0%	6	0
Total Votes				2,299,254	11
Election results via: Arizona Secretary of State

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Arizona, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	45.1%	1,034,707	0
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	53.6%	1,230,111	10
	None	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.5%	11,301	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.5%	12,555	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.1%	3,406	0
	Write-in	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle (write-in)	0.1%	1,371	0
	Write-in	Jonathan Allen/Jeffrey Stath (write-in)	0%	8	0
	Write-in	Charles Jay/Barry Hess (write-in)	0%	16	0
Total Votes				2,293,475	10
Election results via: Arizona Secretary of State

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Arizona: One
• Trump campaign offices in Arizona: Two

Colorado[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Colorado, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Colorado had nine electoral votes, which was 1.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 3.3 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Colorado from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 89 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 78 percent chance Democratic
  
• Cook: Lean Democratic
  
• UV: Likely Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Colorado, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	51.5%	1,323,102	9
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	46.1%	1,185,243	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	1.4%	35,545	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.3%	7,508	0
	Constitution	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0.2%	6,234	0
	Peace & Freedom	Roseanne Barr/Cindy Sheehan	0.2%	5,059	0
	N/A	Other candidates	0.3%	6,831	0
Total Votes				2,569,522	9
Election results via: Colorado Secretary of State

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Colorado, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	53.7%	1,288,633	9
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	44.7%	1,073,629	0
	Peace and Freedom	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.6%	13,352	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.5%	10,898	0
	Independent American	Alan Keyes/Brian Rohrbough	0.1%	3,051	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.1%	2,822	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell L. Castle	0.3%	6,233	0
	N/A	Other candidates	0.1%	2,844	0
Total Votes				2,401,462	9
Election results via: Colorado Secretary of State

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Colorado: 18
• Trump campaign offices in Colorado: 8

Florida[edit]

See also: Sunshine State Battleground and Presidential election in Florida, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Florida had 29 electoral votes, which was 5.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 10.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Florida from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 67 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 55 percent chance Republican
  
• Cook: Tossup
  
• UV: Lean Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Florida, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	50%	4,237,756	29
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	49.1%	4,163,447	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	0.5%	44,726	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.1%	8,947	0
	Independent American	Thomas Hoefling/Robert Ornelas	0%	946	0
	Peace & Freedom	Roseanne Barr/Cindy Sheehan	0.1%	8,154	0
	Justice	Ross C. 'Rocky' Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez	0%	1,754	0
	Conservative	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0%	2,607	0
	Socialist	Stewart Alexander/Alex Mendoza	0%	799	0
	Objectivist	Thomas R. Stevens/Alden Link	0%	3,856	0
	Reform	Andre Barnett/Kenneth Cross	0%	820	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio	0%	322	0
	Write-in	Write-in candidates	0%	45	0
Total Votes				8,474,179	29
Election results via: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Florida, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	51%	4,282,074	27
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	48.2%	4,045,624	0
	Ecology	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.3%	28,124	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.2%	17,218	0
	Independent American	Alan Keyes/Brian Rohrbough	0%	2,550	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0%	2,887	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle	0.1%	7,915	0
	Socialist Workers Party	James Harris/Alyson Kennedy	0%	533	0
	Socialist	Brian Moore/Stewart A. Alexander	0%	405	0
	Boston Tea Party	Charles Jay/John Wayne Smith	0%	795	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva/Eugene Puryear	0%	1,516	0
	Prohibition	Gene C. Amondson/Leroy J. Pletten	0%	293	0
	Objectivist	Thomas R. Stevens/Alden Link	0%	419	0
	Write-in	Write-in candidates	0%	391	0
Total Votes				8,390,744	27
Election results via: Florida Department of State, Division of Elections

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Florida: 34
• Trump campaign offices in Florida: One

Iowa[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Iowa, 2016 and Hawkeye Battleground

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Iowa had six electoral votes, which was 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 2.2 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Iowa from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 62 percent chance Republican
  
• 538: 70 percent chance Republican
  
• Cook: Lean Republican
  
• UV: Lean Republican

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Iowa, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	52%	822,544	6
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	46.2%	730,617	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	0.8%	12,926	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.2%	3,769	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria LaRiva/Stefanie Beacham	0%	372	0
	N/A	Jerry Litzel/Jim Litzel	0.1%	1,027	0
	Socialist Workers	James Harris/Alyson Kennedy	0%	445	0
	Constitution	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0.2%	3,038	0
	Write-in	Write-in candidates	0.5%	7,442	0
Total Votes				1,582,180	6
Election results via: Iowa Secretary of State

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Iowa, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	53.9%	828,940	7
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	44.4%	682,379	0
	Peace and Freedom	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.5%	8,014	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.3%	4,590	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.1%	1,423	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle	0.3%	4,445	0
	Socialist Workers	James Harris/Alyson Kennedy	0%	292	0
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria la Riva/Robert Moses	0%	121	0
	Socialist Party USA	Brian Moore/Stewart A. Alexander	0%	182	0
	N/A	Scattering	0.4%	6,737	0
Total Votes				1,537,123	7
Election results via: Iowa Secretary of State

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Iowa: 24
• Trump campaign offices in Iowa: Nine

Michigan[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Michigan, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Michigan had 16 electoral votes, which was 3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 6 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Michigan from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 94 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 79 percent chance Democratic
  
• Cook: Lean Democratic
  
• UV: Lean Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Michigan, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	54.2%	2,564,569	16
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	44.7%	2,115,256	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.5%	21,897	0
	Natural Law	Ross Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez	0.1%	5,147	0
	U.S. Taxpayers	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0.3%	16,119	0
	Write-in	Write-in candidates	0.2%	7,973	0
Total Votes				4,730,961	16
Election results via: Michigan Secretary of State

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Michigan, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	57.4%	2,872,579	17
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	41%	2,048,639	0
	Natural Law	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.7%	33,085	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.5%	23,716	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.2%	8,892	0
	U.S. Taxpayers	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle	0.3%	14,685	0
	Write-in	Write-in candidates	0%	170	0
Total Votes				5,001,766	17
Election results via: Michigan Secretary of State

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Michigan: 23
• Trump campaign offices in Michigan: Unknown

Nevada[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Nevada, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Nevada had six electoral votes, which was 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 2.2 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Nevada from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 68 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 58 percent chance Republican
  
• Cook: Lean Democratic
  
• UV: Lean Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Nevada, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	52.4%	531,373	6
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	45.7%	463,567	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	1.1%	10,968	0
	N/A	None of these candidates	0.6%	5,770	0
	Independent American Party of Nevada	Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer	0.3%	3,240	0
Total Votes				1,014,918	6
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Nevada, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	55.1%	533,736	5
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	42.7%	412,827	0
	N/A	None of these candidates	0.6%	6,267	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.6%	6,150	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.4%	4,263	0
	Independent American Party of Nevada	Chuck Baldwin/Michael Peroutka	0.3%	3,194	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.1%	1,411	0
Total Votes				967,848	5
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Nevada: Six
• Trump campaign offices in Nevada: Six

New Hampshire[edit]

See also: Presidential election in New Hampshire, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, New Hampshire had four electoral votes, which was 0.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 1.5 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

Note: Write-in votes from New Hampshire can be found here.

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for New Hampshire from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 79 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 70 percent chance Democratic
  
• Cook: Lean Democratic
  
• UV: Lean Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, New Hampshire, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	52%	369,561	4
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	46.4%	329,918	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	1.2%	8,212	0
	N/A	Write-in	0.3%	2,249	0
	Constitution Party	Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer	0.2%	1,156	0
Total Votes				711,096	4
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Jill Stein.^[3]

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, New Hampshire, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	54.2%	384,826	4
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	44.6%	316,534	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.5%	3,503	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.3%	2,217	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.3%	2,001	0
	N/A	Ron Paul	0.2%	1,092	0
Total Votes				710,173	4
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: George Phillies, Charles Baldwin, and Cynthia McKinney.^[4]

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in New Hampshire: 17
• Trump campaign offices in New Hampshire: One

North Carolina[edit]

See also: Presidential election in North Carolina, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, North Carolina had 15 electoral votes, which was 2.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 5.5 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for North Carolina from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 64 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 56 percent chance Republican
  
• Cook: Tossup
  
• UV: Lean Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, North Carolina, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	50.4%	2,270,395	15
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	48.4%	2,178,391	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	1%	44,515	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.3%	11,537	0
Total Votes				4,504,838	15
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Virgil Goode.^[5]

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, North Carolina, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	49.7%	2,142,651	15
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	49.4%	2,128,474	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.6%	25,722	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.3%	12,292	0
Total Votes				4,309,139	15
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney, and Brian Moore.^[6]

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in North Carolina: 30
• Trump campaign offices in North Carolina: Unknown

Ohio[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Ohio, 2016 and Buckeye Battleground

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Ohio had 18 electoral votes, which was 3.3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 6.6 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Ohio from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 54 percent chance Republican
  
• 538: 65 percent chance Republican
  
• Cook: Lean Republican
  
• UV: Lean Republican

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Ohio, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	50.6%	2,827,709	18
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	47.6%	2,661,437	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	0.9%	49,493	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.3%	18,573	0
	Nonparty	Richard Duncan/Ricky Johnson	0.2%	12,502	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	10,078	0
	Constitution	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0.1%	8,152	0
Total Votes				5,587,944	18
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Steward Alexander, Jill Ann Reed, and Randall Terry.^[7]

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Ohio, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	51.4%	2,940,044	20
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	46.9%	2,677,820	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.7%	42,337	0
	Libertarian OH	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.3%	19,917	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	13,698	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle	0.2%	12,565	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.1%	8,518	0
Total Votes				5,714,899	20
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Richard Duncan, Brian Moore, Alan Keyes, Ron Paul, and Jonathan Allen.^[8]

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Ohio: 36
• Trump campaign offices in Ohio: 16

Pennsylvania[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2016 and Keystone Battleground

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes, which was 3.7 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 7.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Pennsylvania from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 89 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 77 percent chance Democratic
  
• Cook: Lean Democratic
  
• UV: Lean Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Pennsylvania, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	52%	2,990,274	20
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	46.6%	2,680,434	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	0.9%	49,991	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.4%	21,341	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	12,576	0
Total Votes				5,754,616	20
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Virgil Goode, Ross Anderson, Roseanne Barr, Thomas Hoefling, Jill Ann Reed, Andre Barnett, Stewart Alexander, and Chuck Baldwin.^[9]

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Pennsylvania, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	54.5%	3,276,363	21
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	44.2%	2,655,885	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.7%	42,977	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.3%	19,912	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	14,291	0
Total Votes				6,009,428	21
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Ron Paul, Chuck Baldwin, Cynthia McKinney, Alan Keyes, Brian Moore, Roger Calero, Frank McEnulty, Gloria LaRiva, and Charles Jay.^[10]

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Pennsylvania: 36
• Trump campaign offices in Pennsylvania: Two

Virginia[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Virginia, 2016 and Old Dominion Battleground

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Virginia had 13 electoral votes, which was 2.4 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 4.8 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Virginia from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 96 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 86 percent chance Democratic
  
• Cook: Likely Democratic
  
• UV: Likely Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Virginia, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	51.2%	1,971,820	13
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	47.3%	1,822,522	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	0.8%	31,216	0
	Constitution	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0.3%	13,058	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.2%	8,627	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	7,158	0
Total Votes				3,854,401	13
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Ross Anderson, Jill Ann Reed, and Sheila Tittle.^[11]

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Virginia, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	52.7%	1,959,532	13
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	46.4%	1,725,005	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.3%	11,483	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.3%	11,067	0
	Independent Green	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle	0.2%	7,474	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	6,302	0
Total Votes				3,720,863	13
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Cynthia McKinney, Alan Keyes, Brian Moore, and Jonathan Allen.^[12]

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Virginia: 29
• Trump campaign offices in Virginia: 18

Wisconsin[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Wisconsin, 2016

Electoral votes[edit]

• In 2016, Wisconsin had 10 electoral votes, which was 1.8 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 3.7 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election.

Results[edit]

Note: The vote totals above are from the recount.

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

State forecast[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for Wisconsin from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 93 percent chance Democratic
  
• 538: 84 percent chance Democratic
  
• Cook: Lean Democratic
  
• UV: Likely Democratic

Voting history[edit]

2012[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Wisconsin, 2012
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden Incumbent	52.8%	1,620,985	10
	Republican	Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan	45.9%	1,407,966	0
	Libertarian	Gary Johnson/Jim Gray	0.7%	20,439	0
	Green	Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala	0.2%	7,665	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	5,170	0
	Constitution	Virgil Goode/James Clymer	0.2%	4,930	0
Total Votes				3,067,155	10
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Jerry White, Peta Lindsay, Ross Anderson, and Roseanne Barr.^[13]

2008[edit]

U.S. presidential election, Wisconsin, 2008
Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama/Joe Biden	56.2%	1,677,211	10
	Republican	John McCain/Sarah Palin	42.3%	1,262,393	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez	0.6%	17,605	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root	0.3%	8,858	0
	N/A	Write-ins	0.2%	6,521	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle	0.2%	5,072	0
	WI Green	Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente	0.1%	4,216	0
Total Votes				2,981,876	10
Election results via: U.S. Election Atlas

Other candidates that appeared on the ballot received less than 0.1% of the vote. Those candidates included: Jeffrey Wamboldt, Brian Moore, and Gloria LaRiva.^[14]

Campaign offices[edit]

State campaign offices are key components of presidential campaigns. They help bring the national operation down to the local level by helping register voters, identifying potential supporters, distributing campaign materials, and "localizing" the national campaign's messaging. On August 30, 2016, PBS released a study documenting the number of state campaign offices of the Clinton and Trump campaigns in battleground states throughout the country. The information was current as of August 29, 2016.^[2]

• Clinton campaign offices in Wisconsin: 33
• Trump campaign offices in Wisconsin: 22

NE-2 and ME-2[edit]

Battleground districts[edit]

Two states allocate their electoral votes proportionally: Maine and Nebraska. Maine has four electoral votes—two for the state and one for each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska has five electoral votes—two for the state and three for each of its three congressional districts. Historically, there has been little disagreement in these states between the statewide vote and the congressional districts. Nebraska and its three districts have tended to favor Republican presidential candidates, while Maine and its two districts have tended to favor Democrats. But in Maine, things began to change in 2014, and in Nebraska things started changing in 2012—oddly enough, in the second congressional districts of both states.

ME-2[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Maine, 2016 and Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Maine's second congressional district covers the more rural and heavily-forested northern parts of the state (about two-thirds of the state altogether). It has historically leaned Democratic. Obama won ME-2 in 2008 and 2012 by 10 and nine points, respectively. But the district elected a Republican—Bruce Poliquin—to the House for the first time in 20 years in 2014, and Trump led in the polls throughout September by margins ranging from four points to 14 points. Clinton, however, led by four points in one poll from early October. On September 29, The Cook Political Report rated ME-2 as "leaning Republican."^[15]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

Forecasts[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for ME-2 from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 64 percent chance Republican
  
• 538: 51 percent chance Democratic
  
• Cook: Tossup
  
• UV: Lean Republican

NE-2[edit]

See also: Presidential election in Nebraska, 2016 and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Maine's second congressional district is, geographically, the smallest of the state's three congressional districts and includes the college city of Omaha and all of Douglas County. NE-2 has generally followed the statewide vote in backing Republicans, but Obama won it in 2008, 50-49 percent. Romney, however, won it in 2012, 53-46 percent. Things got even more complicated in 2014 when Democrat Brad Ashford unseated Republican Lee Terry and became the first Democrat to hold the seat since 1994. The Cook Political Report rated NE-2 as a tossup in September 2016.^[15]

2016 Polling[edit]

Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.

Forecasts[edit]

Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for NE-2 from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.

• NYT: 80 percent chance Republican
  
• 538: 56 percent chance Republican
  
• Cook: Tossup
  
• UV: Lean Republican

Potential upsets[edit]

Two states deserved a special mention: Georgia and Utah. Recall that at the beginning of this article, we said Clinton began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D.C. (74 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win) while Trump began with 179 (66 percent of 270) from 22 states. Georgia and Utah were included in those "almost guaranteed" electoral votes, but they were quite not as predictable in 2016 as they usually are and were seen as potential upsets in the general election. Read more about them below.

Georgia[edit]

In 2016, Georgia had 16 electoral votes, which was 3 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 6 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. Between 1900 and 2012, Georgia supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 65.52 to 34.48 percent. The state, however, supported Republican candidates in every election between 2000 and 2012. Romney won Georgia in 2012 by almost eight points. Throughout September 2016, Trump led Clinton in the state by margins ranging from two to seven points. On September 29, The Cook Political Report rated it as "leaning Republican."^[15]

Utah[edit]

Utah had six electoral votes in 2016. This was 1.1 percent of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs and 2.2 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the general election. The state has a long history of supporting Republican candidates for president. Between 1900 and 2012, Utah supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democrats, 72.41 to 24.14 percent. The state favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012. In June 2016, when a poll was released showing Clinton and Trump tied, some began speculating that Utah could be a swing state in the 2016 general election.^[16] On October 12, another poll came out showing Clinton and Trump tied at 26 percent each, while Independent candidate Evan McMullin registered closely behind in third place at 22 percent.^[17]

Analysis and data[edit]

Analysis[edit]

• November 2, 2016: "Buckeye Battleground"
• October 27, 2016: "Keystone Battleground"
• October 25, 2016: "Hawkeye Battleground"
• October 24, 2016: "Old Dominion Battleground"
• October 23, 2016: "Sunshine State Battleground"

Data[edit]

The table below shows the different battleground state combinations available to Clinton and Trump that could have gotten them enough electoral votes to win a majority in the Electoral College. Combinations include any amount that got the candidates to 270 or higher. See the tabs marked "Math explained" to see full methodology.

Combinations with polling averages included[edit]

In mid-October, Ballotpedia ran a series of potential path-to-victory combinations that included polling averages. Based on polling averages as of October 13, 2016, we took the states where Clinton was ahead by five points or more (WI, MI, NH, VA, and PA) and gave her those states' electoral votes, bringing her total to 263. We did the same for Trump, adding ME-2 and NE-2, giving him a total of 181 electoral votes. Under these circumstances, we found that Clinton had 125 paths to victory, while Trump had one. He would have needed to win all seven states still in contention (NV, AZ, CO, IA, OH, NC, and FL).

October 13 polling averages[edit]

• AZ: Trump +1.25
• CO: Clinton +2.9
• FL: Clinton +2.6
• IA: Trump +2.4
• MI: Clinton +7.6
• NV: Clinton +1.2
• NH: Clinton +5.7
• NC: Clinton +1.2
• OH: Clinton +0.5
• PA: Clinton +8.2
• VA: Clinton +6.4
• WI: Clinton +6.2
• ME-2: Trump +5.2
• NE-2: Trump +9

See also[edit]

• U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2016
• U.S. House battlegrounds, 2016
• State legislative battleground chambers, 2016
• Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016

Footnotes[edit]

v • e 2016 United States Presidential Election Overviews 2016 presidential election • 2016 presidential candidates • 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules • 2016 vice presidential candidates • Possible vice presidential picks Candidate profiles Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Jill Stein Gary Johnson Path to the presidency Republican Convention • Republican Primary Democratic Convention • Democratic Primary Policy positions Abortion • Defunding Planned Parenthood • Agricultural subsidies • Black Lives Matter movement • Budgets • Education • Energy and environmental policy • Federal assistance programs • Federalism • Foreign affairs • LGBTQ rights • Government regulations • Healthcare • Immigration • DACA and DAPA • International trade • Rural policy • Taxes On the campaign trail Ballotpedia's battleground poll • Campaign preparations • Political and leadership attributes • Presidential campaign trackers and opposition researchers Campaign staff Presidential campaign staff transfers, resignations and terminations • Staff leaks from 2016 presidential campaigns Clinton staffers • O'Malley staffers • Sanders staffers Bush staffers • Carson staffers • Christie staffers • Cruz staffers • Fiorina staffers • Huckabee staffers • Kasich staffers • Paul staffers • Rubio staffers • Santorum staffers • Trump staffers Debates PBS, February 11, 2016 (Milwaukee) • PBS, February 4, 2016 (Durham, N.H.) • NBC News, January 17, 2016 (Charleston, S.C.) • ABC, December 19, 2015 (Manchester, N.H.) • CBS, November 14, 2015 (Des Moines) • CNN, October 13, 2015](Las Vegas) February 13, 2016 (Greenville, S.C.) • ABC, February 6, 2016 (Manchester, N.H.) • Fox News, January 28, 2016 (Des Moines) • Fox Business, January 14, 2016 (North Charleston, S.C.) • CNN, December 15, 2015 (Las Vegas) • Fox Business, November 10, 2015 (Milwaukee) • CNBC, October 28, 2015 (Boulder) • CNN, September 16, 2015 (Reagan Library) • Fox News, August 6, 2015 (Cleveland) Analysis The media's coverage of Donald Trump • The media's coverage of Hillary Clinton Post-debate analysis overview Democratic: April 14, 2016 (CNN) • March 9, 2016 (Univision) • March 6, 2016 (CNN) • February 11, 2016 (PBS) • February 4, 2016 (MSNBC) • January 17, 2016 (NBC) • December 19, 2015 (ABC) • November 14, 2015 (CBS) • October 13, 2015 (CNN) Republican: March 10, 2016 (CNN) • March 3, 2016 (FNC) • February 25, 2016 (CNN) • February 13, 2016 (CBS) • February 6, 2016 (ABC) • January 28, 2016 (FNC) • January 14, 2016 (FBN) • December 15, 2015 (CNN) • November 10, 2015 (FBN) • October 28, 2015 (CNBC) • September 16, 2015 (CNN) Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015) • Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders • Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders • Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate

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v • e Ballotpedia's Election Analysis in 2016 Main Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2016 • Terms and concepts: Partisan Risk Federal Desk • U.S. House battlegrounds • U.S. Senate battlegrounds • Presidential battleground states • The 2016 Senate races • The post-2016 federal government scenarios • Impact of the 2016 election on the United States Supreme Court • Policy positions of the 2016 candidates State Desk • Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government • State government trifectas •State executive official elections • State legislative elections • State judicial elections •State supreme court partisanship, 2016 • State supreme court changes, 2016 •2016 ballot measures • State legislative battleground chambers, 2016 Local Desk • Partisanship in local elections • Money in local elections • Partisanship in United States mayoral elections • Race, law enforcement, and the ballot box • Education reform at the state and local levels • Battles over school governance • State funding battles and local responses • The fight to shape public school curriculum Policy Desk • Education policy disputes in the 2016 elections • Healthcare policy disputes in the 2016 elections • Environmental policy disputes in the 2016 elections • Election policy disputes in the 2016 elections • Energy policy disputes in the 2016 elections • Budget policy disputes in the 2016 elections • Public policy in the 2016 elections