Presidential election, 2016

From Ballotpedia - Reading time: 43 min


Americans elected Donald Trump (R) as the 45th president of the United States on November 8, 2016. Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (D) were projected to receive 306 and 232 electoral votes, respectively, but seven electors cast votes for other candidates. Trump won 304 electoral votes and Clinton won 227. Trump won 2,626 counties nationwide, while Clinton won 487 counties.[1] President Barack Obama was ineligible for re-election due to term limits established in the Constitution. Trump was sworn into office on January 20, 2017.

See also: Splits between the Electoral College and popular vote
U.S. presidential election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes Electoral votes
     Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 48.3% 65,844,969 227
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDonald Trump/Mike Pence 46.2% 62,979,984 304
     Libertarian Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 3.3% 4,492,919 0
     Green Jill Stein/Ajamu Baraka 1.1% 1,449,370 0
     - Other 1.2% 1,684,908 7
Total Votes 136,452,150 538
Election results via: Ballotpedia


Note: Trump and Clinton were projected to receive 306 and 232 electoral votes, respectively. Seven electors, however, cast votes for other candidates. Read about what happened here. The results listed above are based on reports from state secretary of state offices and election boards.


Presidential Elections-2016-badge.png

2016 Presidential Election
Date: November 8, 2016

Candidates
Winner: Donald Trump (R)
Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates

Election coverage
Important datesNominating processBallotpedia's 2016 Battleground PollPollsDebatesPresidential election by stateRatings and scorecards

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Candidates[edit]

See also: Presidential candidates, 2016


Donald Trump won the presidency of the United States.

The following candidates ran for the office of President of the United States. They were (1) nominated by their party for the presidency and (2) featured in at least three major national polls. For a full list of candidates by state, please see Candidates by state primary ballot.

Hillary Clinton (D)

Hillary Clinton (D)
Donald Trump (R)

Donald Trump (R)
Jill Stein (G)

Jill Stein (G)
Gary Johnson (L)

Gary Johnson (L)

As of November 1, 2016, a total of 1,780 candidates had filed a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.[2] A full list of these candidates and their parties and filing dates can be found here.

In order to get on the ballot, a candidate for president of the United States must meet a variety of complex, state-specific filing requirements and deadlines. These regulations, known as ballot access laws, determine whether a candidate or party will appear on an election ballot. These laws are set at the state level. A presidential candidate must prepare to meet ballot access requirements well in advance of primaries, caucuses, and the general election. For more information, see Ballot access for presidential candidates.

Presidential candidates who made more than 15 percent of general election ballots:

Vice presidential candidates[edit]

See also: Vice presidential candidates, 2016 and Possible vice presidential picks, 2016
Tim Kaine (D)

Tim Kaine (D)
Mike Pence (R)

Mike Pence (R)
Ajamu Baraka (G)

Ajamu Baraka (G)
William Weld (L)

William Weld (L)

Policy positions[edit]

2016 presidential candidates on domestic affairs[edit]

Click the tiles below to learn more about the 2016 presidential candidates’ positions on domestic affairs.

2016 presidential candidates on economic affairs and government regulations[edit]

Click the tiles below to learn more about the 2016 presidential candidates’ positions on economic affairs and government regulations.

2016 presidential candidates on foreign affairs and national security[edit]

Click the tiles below to learn more about the 2016 presidential candidates’ positions on foreign affairs and national security.

Polls[edit]

See also: General election polls and Primary election and hypothetical polls
The latest hypothetical head-to-head polling and archives of polls dating back to 2013 can be seen on the full presidential polling page.


Clinton-Trump 2016 head-to-head presidential polls (September-October 2016)
Poll Democratic Party Hillary Clinton Republican Party Donald TrumpUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac
October 17-18, 2016
50%44%6%+/-3.11,007
Economist/YouGov
October 15-18, 2016
47%43%10%+/-3.9925
Fox News
October 15-17, 2016
49%42%9%+/-3912
Bloomberg
October 14-17, 2016
50%41%9%+/-3.11,006
Monmouth
October 14-16, 2016
53%41%6%+/-3.6726
CBS News
October 12-16, 2016
51%40%9%+/-31,189
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 10-16, 2016
51%43%6%+/-124,804
ABC News/Washington Post
October 10-13, 2016
50%46%4%+/-4740
NBC News/Wall St. Journal
October 10-13, 2016
51%41%8%+/-3.3905
Fox News
October 10-12, 2016
49%41%10%+/-3917
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
October 8-10, 2016
50%40%10%+/-3.5806
Reuters/Ipsos
October 6-10, 2016
44%37%19%+/-2.22,363
PRRI/The Atlantic
October 5-9, 2016
49%38%13%+/-3.9886
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
October 3-9, 2016
51%44%5%+/-123,329
Economist/YouGov
October 7-8, 2016
48%43%9%+/-4.2971
Quinnipiac
October 5-6, 2016
50%44%6%+/-31,064
Fox News
October 3-6, 2016
48%44%8%+/-3896
Economist/YouGov
October 1-October 3, 2016
48%43%9%+/-3.9911
Reuters/Ipsos
September 29-October 3, 2016
44%37%19%+/-3.21,239
CBS News
September 28-October 2, 2016
49%43%8%+/-41,217
CNN/ORC
September 28-October 2, 2016
51%45%4%+/-31,213
NBC News/SurveyMonkey
September 26-October 2, 2016
50%44%6%+/-126,925
Fox News
September 27-29, 2016
49%44%7%+/-3911
Public Policy Polling
September 27-28, 2016
49%45%6%+/-3.2933
Reuters/Ipsos
September 22-26, 2016
44%38%18%+/-3.51,041
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Ballotpedia's Battleground Poll[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016

Ballotpedia partnered with Evolving Strategies and surveyed voters across seven states (June 10 – 22) regarding their vote preferences. We tested six election scenarios. In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R). In the second set, we matched these same candidates in a series of three-way contests that also included former governor Gary Johnson.

In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump. The tightest battleground race between the two frontrunners was in Iowa, where Clinton led Trump by a weighted 4 percentage points. Clinton saw the largest lead in Michigan, where she led Trump by a weighted 17 percentage points. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states.


BP Poll - Survey Results (percent support) Chart.png
Evolving Strategies and Ballotpedia surveyed 4,242 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.0%.

2016 Battleground states[edit]

See also: Presidential battleground states, 2016
See also Trump wins White House as “Blue Wall” crumbles

In 2016, 12 states and two congressional districts were key to deciding the outcome of the presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.[3] In electoral votes, that came to 159, more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority and become president. Throughout 2016, polling was often tight in these states and districts, and their voting histories made their outcomes difficult to predict. For these reasons, we referred to them as "battlegrounds."

Why did these states have so much sway in the election?[edit]

The reason these states and two districts had so much sway in the 2016 presidential election was largely because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast, but the battleground states were still up for grabs. Clinton, for example, began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D.C. That's 74 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump began with an almost guaranteed 179 electoral votes—66 percent of 270—from 22 states. We knew this because of these states' past election results, demographic trends, and polling data. What this means is that 38 states and Washington, D.C.—a total of 379 electoral votes—were not competitive in 2016. But the battleground states were, and there were more than enough electoral votes between them to get either candidate to the White House.

Paths to victory[edit]

Clinton needed slightly fewer of these battleground states' electoral votes than Trump. To win, she needed only 70 of the 159 electoral votes in the battlegrounds, while Trump needed 91. Those 21 electoral votes that separated Clinton and Trump might not sound all that significant, but they were. Ballotpedia broke down all the different combinations of battleground states that could get Clinton and Trump to 270 electoral votes or higher. We found that Clinton had almost twice as many paths to victory as Trump, at 10,581 different combinations to 5,572, respectively. The 2016 battleground states are highlighted on the map below in grey. Maine and Nebraska are yellow because their second congressional districts were battlegrounds.[3] States in blue and red are ones that were generally considered safe for Clinton and Trump, respectively.


Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing[edit]

From July 2015 to September 2016, Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing provided a curated account of the day's most important news in the 2016 presidential election. It featured candidates' commentary on current events and policy positions, recent polls, debates, Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee politics, advertising campaigns, super PAC activity, campaign staff transitions and more.

To view the archive of daily briefings, click here.

Full list of declared candidates[edit]

Former presidential candidates[edit]

The following candidates and politicians suspended their presidential campaign or declined to run.

Dropped out

Lincoln Chafee (D)
Lawrence Lessig (D)
Martin O'Malley (D)
Bernie Sanders (I)
Jim Webb (D)


Jeb Bush (R)
Ben Carson (R)
Chris Christie (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Carly Fiorina (R)
Jim Gilmore (R)
Lindsey Graham (R)
Mike Huckabee (R)
Bobby Jindal (R)
John Kasich (R)
George Pataki (R)
Rand Paul (R)
Rick Perry (R)
Rick Santorum (R)
Marco Rubio (R)
Scott Walker (R)




Declined to run

Joe Biden (D)
Andrew Cuomo (D)
Al Gore (D)
Dennis Kucinich (D)
Brian Schweitzer (D)
Elizabeth Warren (D)


Kelly Ayotte (R)
Nikki Haley (R)
Peter King (R)
Susana Martinez (R)
Mike Pence (R)
Mitt Romney (R)


Paul Ryan (R)
Brian Sandoval (R)





Presidential election by state[edit]

For more information on the presidential contests in your state, please click on your state below:

http://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_STATE,_2016


Election results by state[edit]

Primaries and caucuses[edit]

Overviews[edit]

States and territories[edit]

Click the state to learn more about its 2016 primary election or caucus.

June
State Party Date Pledged delegates at stake Winner
U.S. Virgin Islands Democratic 6/4/2016 7 Clinton
Puerto Rico Democratic 6/5/2016 60 Clinton
California Democratic 6/7/2016 475 Clinton
California Republican 6/7/2016 172 Trump
Montana Democratic 6/7/2016 21 Sanders
Montana Republican 6/7/2016 27 Trump
New Jersey Democratic 6/7/2016 126 Clinton
New Jersey Republican 6/7/2016 51 Trump
New Mexico Democratic 6/7/2016 34 Clinton
New Mexico Republican 6/7/2016 24 Trump
North Dakota Democratic 6/7/2016 18 Sanders
South Dakota Democratic 6/7/2016 20 Clinton
South Dakota Republican 6/7/2016 29 Trump
Washington, D.C. Democratic 6/14/2016 20 Clinton

Delegate counts[edit]

See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules

Democratic nomination[edit]

Republican nomination[edit]

Public opinion polls[edit]

See also: Presidential election, 2016/General election polls and Presidential election, 2016/Primary election and hypothetical polls
The latest hypothetical head-to-head polling and archives of polls dating back to 2013 can be seen on the full presidential polling page.

Democratic[edit]

Democratic Party Democratic Party presidential primary polling (April 2016 - Present)
Poll Hillary Clinton Bernie SandersUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
IBD/TIPP
May 31 - June 5, 2016
51%37%12%+/-5.3351
Quinnipiac
May 24-30, 2016
53%39%8%+/-3.8678
ABC News/Washington Post
May 16-19, 2016
56%42%2%+/-N/A332
NBC News/Wall Street Journal
May 15-19, 2016
53%45%2%+/-5.3342
CBS News/NY Times
May 13-17, 2016
51%44%5%+/-6371
CNN/ORC
April 28-May 1, 2016
51%43%6%+/-5405
IBD/TIPP
April 22-28, 2016
49%43%8%+/-5.3355
USA Today/Suffolk
April 20-24, 2016
50%45%5%+/-5.1363
Pew Research
April 12-19, 2016
54%42%4%+/-N/A738
NBC/Wall St. Journal
April 10-14, 2016
50%48%2%+/-5.3339
Fox News
April 11-13, 2016
48%46%6%+/-4.5450
CBS News
April 8-12, 2016
50%44%6%+/-6359
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Republican[edit]

Republican Party Republican Party presidential primary polling (April 2016 - Present)
Poll Donald Trump Ted CruzJohn KasichUnsure or OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
CNN/ORC
April 28-May 1, 2016
49%25%19%7%+/-5406
IBD/TIPP
April 22-28, 2016
48%29%16%7%+/-5397
USA Today/Suffolk
April 20-24, 2016
48%29%16%7%+/-5.7292
Pew Research
April 12-19, 2016
44%25%20%11%+/-N/A740
NBC/Wall St. Journal
April 10-14, 2016
40%35%24%1%+/-5.6310
Fox News
April 11-13, 2016
45%27%25%3%+/-4.5419
CBS News
April 8-12, 2016
42%29%18%11%+/-6399
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Key campaign dates[edit]

See also: 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules and Important dates in the 2016 presidential race

To learn about more events on the 2016 presidential campaign trail, visit the full campaign dates page.

Filing deadlines[edit]

See also: Ballot access for presidential candidates

The maps below detail the election dates and candidate filing deadlines for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries and caucuses in 2016. The states that had earlier deadlines are shaded in darker colors. A table listing the same information can be found below the maps.

Primary dates[edit]

Debates[edit]

See also: Presidential debates (2015-2016)

More than two dozen debates took place in the 2016 presidential election cycle (21 primary debates and four general election debates). Our coverage—which can be accessed here—included basic overviews of the debates, information on the moderators, statistical analyses, Insiders Surveys, and commentary written by guest writers and members of our senior writing staff. Schedules for the Democratic and Republican primary debates can be seen below.

Democratic schedule[edit]

2015-2016-Democratic Primary Debate Schedule-with icon.jpg

Republican schedule[edit]

2015-2016-Republican Primary Debate Schedule-with icon.jpg

Democratic National Committee[edit]

See also: Democratic National Committee and Democratic National Convention, 2016

Democratic delegate selection[edit]

The pie chart below presents the total numbers and proportions for each delegate type at the 2016 Democratic National Convention.

The map below compares delegate counts by state, both as raw numbers and as percentages of the total delegation (hover over a state to see this information). A lighter shade of blue indicates a smaller number of delegates while a darker shade indicates a higher number.

Democratic primary/caucus calendar and delegate counts[edit]

The table below lists the number of pledged Democratic delegates who were allocated as of each primary or caucus date. On March 1, 2016, 12 states and jurisdictions held Democratic primaries or caucuses. On this date, 865 pledged Democratic delegates were allocated, more than on any other single day in the 2016 primary season. In order to win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, a candidate needed to win 2,382 delegate votes at the national convention.


Democratic National Convention 2016[edit]

See also: Democratic National Convention, 2016

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), announced on February 12, 2015, that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, would host the convention during the week of July 25, 2016.[4]

According to the National Journal, the initial list of possible host cities for the DNC were Birmingham, Alabama; Brooklyn, New York; Columbus, Ohio; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Phoenix, Arizona.[5]

Republican National Committee[edit]

See also: Republican National Committee and Republican National Convention, 2016

Republican delegate selection[edit]

The pie chart below presents the total numbers and proportions for each delegate type at the 2016 Republican National Convention.

The map below compares delegate counts by state, both as raw numbers and as percentages of the total delegation (hover over a state to see this information). A lighter shade of red indicates a smaller number of delegates while a darker shade indicates a higher number.

Republican primary/caucus calendar and delegate counts[edit]

The table below lists the number of pledged Republican delegates who were allocated as of each primary or caucus date. On March 1, 2016, 595 pledged Republican delegates were allocated, more than on any other single day in the 2016 primary season. In order to win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, a candidate had to win 1,237 delegates at the national convention.


Republican primaries[edit]

The RNC had overhauled some of its rules leading into the 2016 presidential primary. Party leaders and strategists saw 2012 as a primary campaign that lasted too long, lowering candidate Mitt Romney's chances of winning in the general election. The committee voted in January 2014, by a vote of 153-9, to move the convention from the end of August, when it was held last year, to as much as two months earlier, at the end of June. In order to accomplish such a change, new penalties were introduced to encourage states to hold their campaign events earlier in the year. Additionally, the system of awarding delegates in primaries was changed for primaries held before March 14, 2016. The new rules stated that no primary held before March 14 could award delegates based on the "winner-take-all" system; instead, the delegates were to be distributed in proportion to each candidate's support in order to stop any candidate from essentially winning the nomination in early March 2016. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus explained the reasoning, stating, "We have been saying for months that we were no longer going to sit around and allow ourselves to slice and dice our nominee for six months."[6][7]

Republican primary debates[edit]

Another strategy implemented by the RNC was lowering the number of primary debates from the 20 that took place in 2012. Those familiar with the discussions claimed the new number of Republican debates would be between six and 10, with the intention of having each of the major television networks carry at least one of the debates. The RNC had also discussed the idea of adding conservatives to the panels of moderators, potentially resulting in less fiery debates with easier questions, an idea that the networks were open to working with. The final change to debates was aimed at discouraging non-sanctioned debates by barring candidates participating in them from being a part of the sanctioned debates. While big-name candidates would not likely be impacted by the change, it would potentially make it harder for lesser-known candidates to break through.[8]

Republican National Convention 2016[edit]

See also: Republican National Convention, 2016

The Republican National Committee (RNC) announced on July 8, 2014, that Cleveland, Ohio, would be the host of the 2016 Republican National Convention. It was held from July 18-21, 2016.[9]

RNC Rules Committee[edit]

See also: RNC Rules Committee, 2016

The generally-obscure Republican Rules Committee played a more prominent role than usual in the GOP's 2016 nominating process as it grabbed headlines and took center stage in the fight between NeverTrump and pro-Trump Republicans. But what exactly is the Rules Committee? What does it do? Who can serve on it? And what was its impact on 2016?

HIGHLIGHTS
  • The Rules Committee is responsible for crafting the official rules of the Republican Party, including the rules that govern the Republican National Convention. It is different from the RNC Standing Committee on Rules, which can be read about here.
  • The Rules Committee consists of 112 members with one male delegate and one female delegate from each state, territory, and Washington, D.C. They are elected at state conventions.
  • The rules package that the committee produced in July 2016 ultimately worked to the advantage of the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee. It rejected a proposal to unbind the delegates, tightened up the rules on binding, and authorized the RNC to amend rules in between the 2016 and 2020 conventions.
  • Rule 40[edit]

    See also: Rule 40 and its impact on the 2016 Republican National Convention

    This page examines the effect of Rule 40(b) of the Rules of the Republican Party on the party's 2016 presidential nomination process.

    HIGHLIGHTS
  • Rule 40(b) is an official rule of the Republican Party. As adopted in August 2012, it required a candidate for the Republican nomination for president to be able to demonstrate support from a majority of delegates in at least eight individual states in order to have his or her name placed on the nominating ballot at the Republican National Convention.
  • Experts argue that, in the form it took in August 2012, the primary purpose of the rule was to prevent Ron Paul from being considered for the Republican nomination in 2012 and to create a show of unity within the Republican Party heading into the 2012 general election. Leading up to the 2016 national convention, observers in the media and political insiders anticipated that Rule 40(b) could prevent some candidates (such as John Kasich) and potential candidates (such as Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney) from having their name placed on the nominating ballot at the convention and thereby hinder their chances of becoming the Republican nominee. But the rule ended up having less of an impact than most anticipated.
  • At the July 14 meeting of the Rules Committee in Cleveland, the committee voted to return the state threshold back to "five states" for the 2020 nominating season and changed "majority" back to "plurality." At the 2016 convention, however, the eight-state threshold and "majority" remained in place.
  • Libertarian National Convention 2016[edit]

    See also: Libertarian National Convention, 2016

    The Libertarian National Convention was held May 26-30, 2016, in Orlando, Florida.[10]

    Libertarian debates[edit]

    • A Libertarian Party presidential primary debate was filmed on March 29, 2016, and Part 1 aired on the Fox Business Network on April 1, 2016, at 9 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. Part 2 of the debate aired at 9 p.m. on April 8, 2016. The debate was moderated by John Stossel and aired on the Stossel show. Word of the debate first appeared on Gary Johnson’s official campaign Tumblr page on February 16, 2016. Political commentator Austin Petersen, Gary Johnson, and John McAfee participated.[11][12]
    • In an interview with The New York Times that ran on March 22, 2016, Gary Johnson discussed the Commission on Presidential Debates' 15 percent polling requirement for third party candidate participation. Johnson said, “There is no way that a third party wins the presidency without being in the presidential debate. The contention is on our part that if you’re on the ballot in enough states to mathematically be elected, then you should be included in the presidential debate.”[13]

    Straw polls[edit]

    See also: Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls

    Straw polls, while unscientific, indicate to candidates their support within select groups of voters. Two of the most noted straw polls are the Iowa straw poll and the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) straw poll. To view all straw polls, visit the presidential straw polls page.

    Conservative Political Action Conference[edit]

    Republican Party 2015 Annual CPAC straw poll
    Poll Rand Paul Ted CruzBen CarsonChris ChristieScott WalkerRick SantorumMarco RubioDonald TrumpJeb BushCarly FiorinaMargin of ErrorSample Size
    2015 CPAC Straw Poll
    February 25-27, 2015
    25.7%11.5%11.4%2.8%21.4%4.3%3.7%3.5%8.3%3.0%+/-03,007
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Iowa Straw Poll[edit]

    See also: Presidential election in Iowa, 2016

    The Iowa Republican Party voted to end the Iowa Straw Poll on June 12, 2015. The poll was the recipient of scrutiny due to its inability to actually predict the Republican nominee.[14] Major contenders for the Republican nomination had slowly been announcing they would not participate in the poll over the weeks leading up to news of the cancellation.

    The Iowa Republican straw poll had been conducted since 1979. In 2012, former Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) won the straw poll.

    Recent news[edit]

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms 2016 presidential election. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    Related pages[edit]

    External links[edit]

    Footnotes[edit]




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