Republican Party battleground primaries, 2020
From Ballotpedia - Reading time: 11 min
| 2020 Republican Party primary elections |
|---|
 |
| Battleground primaries |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds State executive battlegrounds |
| Federal primaries |
| U.S. Senate primaries U.S. House primaries |
| State primaries |
| Gubernatorial primaries Attorney General primaries Secretary of State primaries State legislative primaries |
| Primary overviews |
| Republican Party primaries, 2020 Democratic Party primaries, 2020 Top-two battleground primaries, 2020 |
| Primaries by state |
Last updated: September 11, 2020
General elections are often the focal point of election-year media coverage as they determine control of elected offices up and down the ballot. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes.
Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R).
On this page, you will find information on noteworthy and notable Republican Party primaries taking place across the country for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state executive offices, and state legislatures. The page also includes information about notable top-two primaries for Republican seats.
Ballotpedia identified 75 Republican battleground primaries in 2020.
Click here for information on Democratic Party battleground primaries in 2020.
Criteria[edit]
It is typically difficult to predict how competitive primaries will be until after filing deadlines take place. However, Ballotpedia used a number of factors to give insight into the most interesting 2020 primary elections. Factors that were used to determine the competitiveness of primaries included:
- Whether or not the seat was open (retiring or resigning incumbent)
- Notable endorsements of multiple candidates
- Significant fundraising from multiple candidates
- Number of candidates
- Incumbent's years in office (if seeking re-election)
- Whether or not the district's general election was expected to be a battleground
U.S. Senate primaries[edit]
The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2020. Use the buttons in the upper-right hand corner of the map or your mouse's scroll wheel to zoom in and out. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name. There were seven U.S. Senate Republican battleground primaries in 2020.
| U.S. Senate Republican battleground primaries, 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Primary date | Primary winner | Incumbent | Open seat? | MOV in 2014[1] | |
| Alabama | March 3, 2020 July 14, 2020 runoff |
 Jeff Sessions and Tommy TubervilleTommy Tuberville |
Doug Jones |
 |
D+1.7 | |
| Arizona | August 4, 2020 | Martha McSally |  Martha McSally |
|
R+13.0 | |
| Kansas | August 4, 2020 | Roger Marshall | Pat Roberts |
 |
R+10.6 | |
| New Hampshire | September 8, 2020 | Bryant Messner | Jeanne Shaheen |
|
D+3.3 | |
| Oregon | May 19, 2020 | Jo Rae Perkins | Jeff Merkley |
|
D+23.3 | |
| Tennessee | August 6, 2020 | Bill Hagerty | Lamar Alexander |
|
R+30.0 | |
| Wyoming | August 18, 2020 | Cynthia Lummis | Mike Enzi |
|
R+54.8 | |
U.S. House primaries[edit]
The following map shows each U.S. House district with a Republican battleground primary in 2020. Use the buttons in the upper-right hand corner of the map or your mouse's scroll wheel to zoom in and out. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. There were 53 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2020.
State executive primaries[edit]
The following map shows each state with Republican state executive battleground primaries in 2020. Hover over or tap a state for information on which primaries are battlegrounds and who the incumbent is in each. There were eight Republican state executive battleground primaries in 2020.
| Republican state executive battleground primaries, 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Primary date | Primary winner | Incumbent | Open seat? | MOV in 2016 | |
| Indiana Attorney General | June 22 - July 9, 2020[2] | Todd Rokita | Curtis Hill |
|
R+23.9 | |
| Governor of Missouri | August 4, 2020 | Mike Parson | Mike Parson |
|
R+5.9 | |
| Governor of Montana | June 2, 2020 | Greg Gianforte | Steve Bullock |
|
D+3.9 | |
| Secretary of State of Montana | June 2, 2020 | Christi Jacobsen | Corey Stapleton |
|
R+14.5 | |
| Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina | March 3, 2020 | Mark Robinson | Dan Forest |
|
R+6.6 | |
| Governor of Utah | June 30, 2020 | Spencer Cox | Gary R. Herbert |
|
R+38.1 | |
| Attorney General of Utah | June 30, 2020 | Sean Reyes | Sean Reyes |
|
R+40.3 | |
| Governor of West Virginia | June 9, 2020 | Jim Justice | Jim Justice |
|
D+6.8 | |
State legislative primaries[edit]
The following map shows each state with a Republican state legislative primary battleground chamber in 2020. Hover over or tap a state for more information on which chambers are battlegrounds and how many seats Democrats control in each. There were seven Republican primary battleground chambers in 2020.
| Republican state legislative primary battleground chambers, 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chamber | Primary date | Seats controlled by Republicans | Seats controlled by Republicans that are up for election in 2020 | Number of contested Republican primaries | |
| Alaska State Senate | |||||
| Alaska House of Representatives | |||||
| Kansas State Senate | |||||
| Kansas House of Representatives | |||||
| Ohio House of Representatives | |||||
| South Dakota State Senate | |||||
| Texas House of Representatives | |||||
Top-two primaries for Republican seats[edit]
- See also: Top-two battleground primaries, 2020
There were two top-two battleground primaries for Republican-held seats in 2020.
California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election. In states that do not use a top-two system, all parties are usually able to put forward a candidate for the general election if they choose to.[3][4]
Unlike the top-two format used in some states (Louisiana and Georgia special elections for example), a general election between the top-two candidates in California occurs regardless of whether the top candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round of elections.
As of August 2024, California was one of five states to use a top-two primary system, or a variation of the top-two system. See here for more information.
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
| Top-two battleground primaries for Republican-held seats, 2020 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Primary winners | Incumbent | Open seat? | MOV in 2018 | ||
| California's 22nd | Devin NunesPhil Arballo |
Devin Nunes |
|
R+5.4 | ||
| California's 50th | Ammar Campa-Najjar Darrell Issa |
Vacant (Previous: Duncan Hunter) |
|
R+3.4 | ||
Change log[edit]
This section lists every change that was made to our battleground list since we launched the page in September 2019.
- August 7, 2020: Removed two battleground races from the list: MN-02 and WI-07.
- July 27, 2020: Removed one battleground race from the list: AZ-04.
- July 10, 2020: Added three battleground races to the list: FL-13, FL-26, and Alaska State Senate.
- July 6, 2020: Added one battleground race to the list: NH-01.
- May 18, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: OR-Sen and NJ-03. Removed two races: IA-02 and Montana Attorney General.
- April 26, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: AZ-04 and South Dakota State Senate.
- April 8, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: VA-02 and VA-05.
- March 31, 2020: Added one battleground race to the list: Utah Attorney General.
- March 23, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: FL-15 and NV-03.
- March 15, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: TX-23 and Montana Attorney General.
- March 1, 2020: Added five battleground races to the list: NM-02, NY-02, OR-02, UT-04, and Montana Secretary of State.
- February 14, 2020: Removed two battleground races from the list: TX-23 and TX-24.
- February 7, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: TN-Sen and TX-12.
- January 31, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: GA-09 and GA-14.
- January 24, 2020: Added nine battleground races to the list: KY-04, MS-03, Indiana Attorney General, North Carolina Lieutenant Governor, Alaska House of Representatives, Kansas State Senate and House of Representatives, Ohio House of Representatives, and Texas House of Representatives
- January 13, 2020: Added eight battleground races to the list: IA-02, MN-02, NC-11, OK-05, TN-01, TX-13, TX-32, and VA-07. Removed NC-Sen.
- January 3, 2020: Added two battleground races to the list: FL-03 and NJ-02. Removed two battleground races from the list: GA-06 and NC Gov.
- December 3, 2019: Added one battleground race to the list: PA-7.
- November 15, 2019: Added one battleground race to the list: FL-19.
- September 18, 2019: Added five battleground races to the list: NH Senate, GA-6, GA-7, KS-3, and TX-23.
- September 12, 2019: Launched initial battlegrounds list with 35 races.[5]
2018 battlegrounds[edit]
Ballotpedia identified 78 Republican federal and state battleground primaries in 2018. There were eight senate battleground primaries, 43 house battleground primaries, and 27 state executive battleground primaries.
Disputes between potential members of the House Freedom Caucus and other members of the Republican Party occurred in U.S. House primaries in 2018.
Led by U.S. Reps. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the House Freedom Caucus supported candidates who were likely to join its ranks if elected to the House.[6][7] Other wings of the Republican Party, including those aligned with House Republican leadership, often preferred candidates not aligned with the Freedom Caucus.
The Freedom Caucus said it "gives a voice to countless Americans who feel that Washington does not represent them" and supported "open, accountable and limited government, the Constitution and the rule of law, and policies that promote the liberty, safety and prosperity of all Americans."[8] The Pew Research Center said the group formed in January 2015 "with the declared aim of pushing the House GOP leadership rightward on certain fiscal and social issues" and wanted "power shifted away from the leadership to the rank-and-file."[9]
Other House Republican caucuses more closely allied with leadership included the Republican Main Street Partnership, which aimed for "conservative, pragmatic, solutions-oriented policies that can gain support from legislators on both sides of the aisle," and the Republican Study Committee, which "is dedicated to a limited and Constitutional role for the federal government, a strong national defense, the protection of individual and property rights, and the preservation of traditional family values."[10][11]
Scott Wong wrote for The Hill that the primaries were a "proxy battle over how much influence...the Freedom Caucus can exert over the House GOP conference next year— and who might lead Republicans after retiring Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) steps down."[10] Jordan emerged as a speaker contender and announced he would run for the position against Ryan's preferred candidate, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).[10] After Republicans lost their majority in the general elections, McCarthy defeated Jordan in a contest for Republican minority leader. The vote was 159 to 43.[12]
To detail this fight, we identified competitive open Republican primaries where the Freedom Caucus or its leaders backed a candidate.[13] We also considered primaries where candidates said they would join the Freedom Caucus if elected.
The chart below shows a summary of results in the competitive open Republican primaries we tracked where either the Freedom Caucus or its leaders backed a candidate.[14]
| U.S. House Republican factions | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Faction | Primary victories in 2018 | Seats held prior to primaries | Performance | |||||||||
| Affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus | 8 | 6 | +2 | |||||||||
| Not affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus[15] | 10 | 12 | -2 | |||||||||
Top 10 Republican primaries in 2018[edit]
The list below was selected by Ballotpedia staff at the end of the 2018 primary season. Click the links to learn more about each primary.
- Arizona Senate (August 28)
- South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)
- Florida governor (August 28)
- Georgia governor (May 22) & runoff (July 24)
- Kansas governor (August 7)
- Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)
- Wyoming governor (August 21)
- Minnesota's 1st Congressional District (August 14)
- Texas state legislative Republican primaries (March 6 and May 22)
- Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)
See also[edit]
- ↑ 2016 for Arizona and 2017 for Alabama.
- ↑ Note: Candidates for Indiana state executive offices (other than governor and lieutenant governor) are nominated at party conventions rather than selected in primaries.
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Primary Elections in California," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ The original 35 races identified were: AL Senate, AZ Senate, KS Senate, NC Senate, WY Senate, AL-1, AL-2, IL-6, IL-14, IL-15, IN-5, IA-4, KS-1, KS-2, ME-2, MI-3, MI-10, MN-7, MT-AL, NY-27, PA-1, SC-1, TX-7, TX-11, TX-17, TX-22, TX-24, UT-1, WI-5, WI-7, MO Gov, MT Gov, NC Gov, UT Gov, and WV Gov.
- ↑ House Freedom Fund, "Endorsements," accessed May 15, 2018
- ↑ McClatchy DC, "House Freedom Caucus looks to gain members as Texas GOP voters head for polls," March 5, 2018
- ↑ Facebook, "House Freedom Caucus," accessed May 29, 2018
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "What is the House Freedom Caucus, and who’s in it?" October 20, 2015
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 The Hill, "Freedom Caucus bruised but unbowed in GOP primary fights," May 22, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Conservatives split off from Republican Study Committee," January 13, 2015
- ↑ The Hill, "McCarthy defeats Jordan for minority leader in 159-to-43 vote," November 14, 2018
- ↑ We chose to focus on open primaries in order to see how many new members the caucus could potentially add after the 2018 elections.
- ↑ We chose to focus on open primaries in order to see how many new members the caucus could potentially add after the 2018 elections.
- ↑ This includes all seats not held by members of the Freedom Caucus prior to the 2018 elections, including those held by Democrats.
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