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Other 2012 Election coverage |
In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers altogether, and 86 of the 99 chambers held state legislative elections on November 6, 2012.
1,301 (65.97%) of the country's 1,972 state senate seats were up for re-election in November 2012, and 4,714 (87.12%) of the country's 5,411 state house seats were up for re-election. Altogether, 6,015 (81.47%) of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats were up for re-election during the presidential election year.
The 6,015 seats up for election was 110 fewer than the 6,125 that were contested in 2010.
Because of the decennial redistricting process, the total number of seats can vary from a typical election year. For example, in Alaska, there are usually 10 seats up for election every two years. However, because of the newly drawn map, a total of 19 seats were on the ballot in November 2012.[1] Elections immediately following redistricting historically demonstrate a higher number of open seats and a higher rate of new legislators than in typical election years.[2]
According to Louis Jacobson of Governing Magazine, the percent of state legislative turnover from an election was between 14.4 percent and 21.5 percent from 1998 to 2008. However, during the year of redistricting in 2002, that figure jumped to 24 percent. In 2010, the turnover rate was just below 24 percent, as the GOP boom created a higher than normal exodus of legislators. Because 2012 is another redistricting year, the rate of turnover was expected to once again be higher than usual.[3]
Lou Cannon, of State Net's Capitol Journal, highlighted several chambers that could see a change in partisan control after the 2012 elections. Chambers under Republican control prior to the 2012 election that Cannon found to be vulnerable to switch included the Colorado House, the Maine House and Senate, the New Hampshire House, the New York Senate, and the Wisconsin Senate. Cannon described Colorado as a state where Democrats had the best chances of flipping the legislature -- where President Obama did well in 2008, Democrats held the Senate by five votes, and Republicans held the House by just a one-vote margin.[4]
Chambers that were expected to switch to Republican control include the Arkansas House and Senate, the New Mexico House, the Iowa Senate, and the Nevada Senate. Arkansas, which voted in favor of the Republicans in the 2008 presidential election was expected to do so again in the fall. The state was the last of the 13 Confederate states in which the Democrats control any legislative chamber. Prior to the election, the democrats held the Senate by five votes and the House by an eight-vote margin.[4][5]
Additionally, two chambers were tied in terms of partisan control: the Alaska Senate and the Oregon House.
Heading into the 2012 elections, the Republican Party held a commanding advantage in total number of state legislative chambers in which it is the majority party. Republicans controlled 51 chambers with 2012 elections while Democrats controlled 32.
Partisan Balance of Chambers with 2012 Elections | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
Legislative chamber | ||||||||
State senates | 17 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
State houses | 15 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Totals: | 32 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 48 | 0 | 1 |
Partisan Balance of All 99 Chambers Before and After 2012 Elections | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pre-election | Post-election | |||||||
Legislative chamber | ||||||||
State senates | 19 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 28 | 1 | 1 |
State houses | 17 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Totals: | 36 | 59 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 56 | 1 | 1 |
To calculate a measure for the seats in state legislatures controlled by one party, the proportion of each chamber controlled by the Republican Party provides a metric for Republican dominance (a high proportion), Democratic dominance (a low proportion), or no dominance by either party in the legislature (near 0.50). These two percentages (one for each chamber) are then added together to provide a measure of the degree to which Republicans control the state legislature (with 2 being complete control and 0 indicating control of no GOP seats). By subtracting 1 and taking the absolute value of the resulting number, the state is assigned a rating between 0 and 1 where a higher number indicates greater dominance by the majority party in the state legislature.
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Beyond basic partisan control, parties looked to gain or end supermajorities in a number of chambers. In these chambers it was not a question of which party will hold power, but simply by how much. Supermajority generally means a party controls two-thirds of all seats. While it varies from state to state, being in this position gives a party much greater power. Josh Goodman of Stateline highlighted the following states:[6]
This map displays the month of each State legislative primary in 2012 |
The first state legislative primary in 2012 was in Ohio on March 6. The dates of the primaries were as follows:
March
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June
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August
September
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This year 44 states held state legislative elections. While each state holds a primary, the amount of time between the signature filing deadline and the primary differed widely from 60 days in North Dakota all the way to 158 days in Connecticut. What this essentially means is that candidates in Connecticut had 98 days more days to campaign than those in North Dakota.
Looking at it geographically, one can see a few clusters - western states with 80-89 days and midwestern states that have 90+ days - but for the most part the variation is spread throughout the country.
Filing deadlines and primary dates were in a state of flux in a number of states, primarily due to the once-a-decade redistricting process.
Thirteen state senate chambers and thirteen state house chambers that held general elections on November 6, 2012 included some state legislators who were unable to run for re-election in 2012 because of their state's legislative term limits. A total of 15 states have term limits for their legislators. However, Louisiana did not hold elections for its state senate or state house in 2012. Additionally, Michigan did not have a state senate election in 2012, and Nebraska does not have a lower house to hold an election for.
Altogether, 248 current state legislators had to leave office after the November elections because of term limits. This was 13.89% of the 1,786 state legislative seats up for election in the 14 term-limited states with 2012 elections, and about 4% of the 6,015 state legislative seats that were up for election altogether in 2012, including the non-term-limited states.
43 state senates held general elections in November 2012. In 13 of these states, state senators are subject to term limits. Louisiana and Michigan are the only states with state senate term limits that did not have a general election for their state senates in 2012.
A total of 83 current state senators were ineligible to run for re-election in November because of term limit laws in their state. This includes:
In 5 states, the term limits axe fell more heavily on incumbent Republicans: Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Ohio and South Dakota. In 4 states, the term limits axe fell more heavily on incumbent Democrats: Arkansas, California, Colorado, and Montana. In 3 states, the axe fell equally on both parties (Maine, Oklahoma, and Nevada) while Nebraska's senate is officially nonpartisan.
43 state houses held general elections in November 2012. In 13 of these states, state house terms are subject to term limits. 15 states have state legislative term limits, but Louisiana did not hold a state house election in 2012 and Nebraska does not have a state house.
172 current state representatives were ineligible to run for re-election in November because of term limit laws in their state. This includes:
In 7 states, the term limits axe fell more heavily on incumbent Republicans: Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma and South Dakota. In all of these states, the majority party was also the Republican Party.
In 6 states, the term limits axe fell more heavily on incumbent Democrats: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, and Nevada. In 3 of these states, the majority party was also the Democratic Party. These states include Arkansas, California and Nevada. In 3 of the 6 states where term limits affect incumbent Democrats more heavily, the majority party was Republican -- Colorado, Maine and Michigan.
Although the difference is marginal, the Republican Party took more of a hit from term limits in the 2012 state legislative elections than the Democratic Party, both in terms of how many individual incumbent legislators the Republican Party lost (120, versus 119 for the Democratic Party) and in terms of how many state legislative chambers lost more Republicans (12, versus 10 for the Democratic Party).
Chart indicating impact on individual legislators by party
Party | # of termed senators | # of termed representatives | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Democratic | 35 | 87 | 122 |
Republican | 40 | 85 | 125 |
Nonpartisan | 8 | 0 | 8 |
Chart indicating impact on legislative chambers by party
Party | Senates with most losses | Houses with most losses | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Democratic | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Republican | 5 | 7 | 12 |
Equal D/R losses (or nonpartisan chamber) | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Chart indicating change in party control of seats after 2010
After the 2010 election results were in, it was possible to see the effect that term limits had on party control of termed-out seats. While incumbents generally have an advantage in elections, elections for termed-out seats lack an incumbent running for re-election. In some cases, this preceded a change in party control of the termed-out seat.
Term-limited seats that changed party control in the 2010 elections | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Senators Termed Out 2010 | Representatives Termed Out 2010 | Democratic Seats lost to other Parties - Senate | Republican Seats lost to other Parties - Senate | Democratic Seats lost to other Parties - House | Republican Seats lost to other Parties - House | Percent of Termed-Out Senate Seats that Changed Party | Percent of Termed-Out House Seats that Changed Party | Total Legislative Seats that Changed Party | |
Arizona | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | |
Arkansas | 13 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 53.8% | 35.3% | 19 | |
California | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 11.1% | 2 | |
Colorado | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 12.5% | 1 | |
Florida | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | |
Maine | 4 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 5, 1 | 2 | 25% | 40% | 9 | |
Michigan | 29 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 10.3% | 18.9% | 10 | |
Missouri | 10 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 10% | 11.5% | 7 | |
Montana | 15 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 13.3% | 26.7% | 6 | |
Nebraska | 1 | N/A[15] | 0 | 0 | - | - | 0% | - | 0 | |
Nevada | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | |
Ohio | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 | |
Oklahoma | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 0% | 4 | |
South Dakota | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25% | 25% | 3 | |
Total: | 121 | 254 | 19 | 0 | 34, 2 | 6 | 15.7% | 16.5% | 61 |
Strategists for the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee chose 50 districts for inclusion in their 2012 Essential Races list. Those districts were:[16]
Alabama did not hold any state legislative elections in 2012.
The State Senate was in the unique position of being equally split between Democrats and Republicans, with each party holding 10 seats. Republicans controlled the redistricting process, increasing the likelihood that they would gain control of the Upper Chamber in 2012.[18]
Alaska's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Alaska legislators assume office on the third Tuesday of January following their election.[19][20]
Arizona's state senators are elected to two-year terms. Arizona legislators assume office on the first day of the session after they are elected. Each regular session begins on the second Monday in January.[21] Members are limited to four terms, for a total of eight years.
After a strong Republican showing in the 2010 elections, Democrats controlled both chambers by slim margins heading into the 2012 election. "The elections that matter to the state Republican Party are the legislative elections of 2012, which are going to determine who controls both houses of the Legislature," said Jay Barth, a political science professor at Hendrix College.[22]
The Arkansas legislature had been in Democratic control since the end of the Civil War and was the last Southern state to have a Democratic legislature. Small government group Americans for Prosperity heavily invested in races in the state in an effort to flip the chambers.[23]
Arkansas's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Arkansas legislators assume office on the second Monday of January following their election.[24] Members are limited to two terms, for a total of eight years.
As a result of the new redistricting process, it had been estimated that up to 40 percent of the 120 legislative seats could be won by new candidates in 2012.[25]
California's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Senators are limited to serving no more than two four-year terms. California's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to serving no more than four two-year terms. California legislators assume office the first Monday in the December following their election.[26]
Colorado's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than two consecutive terms. Colorado's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to no more than four consecutive terms. Colorado legislators assume office on the first day of the legislative session after their election. The legislative session must begin no later than 10:00 AM on the second Wednesday of January.[27] The state constitution requires the newly elected governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, treasurer, and secretary of state to take office on the second Tuesday of January.[28] In the year after those offices are elected, the legislative session must begin before the second Tuesday of January to declare the winners of those races.[29][30]
Connecticut's state senators are elected to two-year terms. Connecticut's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Connecticut legislators assume office the Wednesday following the first Monday of January after their election.[31]
Delaware's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Delaware's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Delaware legislators assume office the first Wednesday after the first Monday in November (the day after election day).[32][33]
Florida's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than two consecutive four-year terms. Florida's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to no more than four consecutive terms. Florida legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.[34]
Georgia's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Georgia's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Georgia legislators assume office the second Monday in January.[35]
Hawaii's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Hawaii's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Hawaii legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.[36]
Idaho's state senators are elected to two-year terms. Idaho's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Idaho legislators assume office on the first day in December following the general election.[37]
All 59 state Senate and 118 state house seats were up for election.
Illinois' state senators are elected to two or four-year terms. Under the Illinois Constitution of 1970, senators are divided into three groups, each group having a two-year term at a different part of the decade between censuses, with the rest of the decade being taken up by two four-year terms. Illinois' state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Illinois legislators assume office the second Wednesday in January.[38]
Indiana's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Indiana's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Indiana legislators assume office the day after their general election.[39]
Iowa's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Iowa state senators assume office on the first day of January which is not a Sunday or legal holiday.[40][41] Iowa's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Iowa state representatives always assume office the first day of January after their election.[42]
Seven moderate Republican incumbents were defeated by more conservative rivals in an effort to oust members of the Senate who were hostile to parts of Gov. Sam Brownback's agenda. This fits in with a larger 2012 narrative nationwide in which moderates from both parties are struggling to keep their seats.[43]
Kansas' state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Kansas legislators assume office the second Monday of January after their election.[44]
Kentucky's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Kentucky's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Kentucky legislators assume office the first day of January after their election.[45]
Louisiana did not hold any state legislative elections in 2012.
Maine's state senators are elected to two-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than four consecutive terms. Maine's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to no more than four consecutive terms. Maine legislators assume office on the first Wednesday of December following the general election.[46][47]
Maryland did not hold any state legislative elections in 2012.
Massachusetts' state senators are elected to two-year terms. Massachusetts' state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Massachusetts legislators assume office the first Wednesday in January after the election.[48]
Michigan did not hold any state senate elections in 2012.
Michigan's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Michigan's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Michigan legislators assume office at noon on the first day of January.[49]
Republicans won control of the Senate after the 2010 election. The new redistricting maps could have given the advantage to the DFL (Democrats), according to a report in the Minnesota Post. A total of 16 incumbent senators were paired together and there will be eight open seats with no incumbent.[50] DFL State Chair Ken Martin said that a party analysis of the new Senate districts indicates that the partisan lean of the 67 districts is 34-33 in favor of the DFL.[50] However, an analysis by The Pioneer Press indicated a partisan lean of 36-31 for Republicans.[51]
Minnesota's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Minnesota's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Minnesota legislators assume office on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in January after the election. When the first Monday in January falls on January 1, legislators assume office on the first Wednesday after the first Monday.[52][53]
Mississippi did not hold any state legislative elections in 2012.
Missouri's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than two four-year terms. Missouri's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to no more than four two-year terms. Missouri legislators assume office the first day of the legislative session, which is the first Wednesday after the first Monday in January at 12:00pm.[54]
Montana's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Montana term limits state that officials may not seek re-election if they have held office for eight years in a 16-year period. Montana's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Montana term limits state that officials may not seek re-election if they have held office for eight years in a 16-year period. Montana legislators assume office the first Monday of January following the election. If January 1 is a Monday, legislators assume office on the first Wednesday.[55]
Nebraska's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than two four-year terms. Nebraska legislators assume office the first Wednesday after the first Monday in January.[56]
Nevada's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Nevada's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Nevada legislators assume office on the first Wednesday after the first Monday in November (the day after election day).[57]
New Hampshire's state senators are elected to two-year terms. New Hampshire's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. New Hampshire legislators assume office on the first Wednesday of December following the general election.[58]
New Jersey did not hold any state legislative elections in 2012.
New Mexico's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. New Mexico legislators assume office on the first day of January after a general election.[59]
New York's state senators are elected to two-year terms. New York's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. New York legislators assume office the first day of January after a general election.[60]
North Carolina's state senators are elected to two-year terms. North Carolina's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. North Carolina legislators assume office on January 1 the year after their election.[61]
North Dakota's state senators are elected to four-year terms. North Dakota's state representatives are elected to four-year terms. North Dakota legislators assume office December 1st.[62]
Ohio's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than two consecutive terms. Ohio's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to no more than four consecutive terms. Ohio legislators assume office the first day of January after a general election.[63][64]
Oklahoma's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than a combined total of twelve years in the senate and house of representatives. Oklahoma's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to no more than a combined total of twelve years in the senate and house of representatives. Oklahoma legislators assume office 15 days following the general election.[65][66]
Oregon's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Oregon's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Oregon legislators assume office the second Monday in January following the election.[67]
Pennsylvania's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Pennsylvania's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Pennsylvania legislators assume office on the first day of December after a general election.[68]
Rhode Island's state senators are elected to two-year terms. Rhode Island's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Rhode Island legislators assume office the first Tuesday in January.[69]
South Carolina's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. South Carolina legislators assume office the Monday after the election.[70]
South Dakota's state senators are elected to two-year terms. Senators are limited to no more than four consecutive terms. South Dakota's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Representatives are limited to no more than four consecutive terms. South Dakota legislators assume office the second Tuesday in January after the general election.[71]
Tennessee's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Tennessee's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Tennessee legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.[72]
Texas's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Texas's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Texas legislators assume office at the beginning of the legislative session, which starts at noon on the second Tuesday in January in the year after the election.[73][74]
Utah's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Utah's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Utah legislators assume office the first day in January.[75][76]
Vermont's state senators are elected to two-year terms. Vermont's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Vermont legislators assume office the first Wednesday after the first Monday in January after the election.[77]
Virginia did not hold any state legislative elections in 2012.
Washington's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Washington's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Washington legislators assume office the second Monday of January.[78]
West Virginia's state senators are elected to four-year terms. West Virginia's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. West Virginia legislators assume office on the first day of December following their election.[79]
Going into the elections Democrats controlled the Senate by a margin of 17-16. They took power in the chamber following the successful recall of Van Wanggaard in early June.
Wisconsin's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Wisconsin's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Wisconsin legislators assume office the first Monday in January following the election, unless the first Monday of January falls on January 1 or 2. In those cases, legislators assume office on January 3.[80]
Wyoming's state senators are elected to four-year terms. Wyoming's state representatives are elected to two-year terms. Wyoming legislators assume office the first Monday in January in odd-numbered years.[81]
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