Trifecta vulnerability in the 2019 elections

State government trifectas
Current trifecta status Historical and potential changes in trifectas Trifecta vulnerability in the 2019 elections Trifecta vulnerability in the 2018 elections

Last updated December 23, 2019
Trifecta status was at stake in five states that held elections in November 2019. Four states—Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia—held a gubernatorial or state legislative election on November 5, 2019. Louisiana held a gubernatorial and state legislative general election on November 16. A trifecta exists when one party holds the governorship, a majority in the state senate, and a majority in the state house.

At the time of the 2019 elections, Republicans held trifectas in Kentucky and Mississippi. Democrats had a trifecta in New Jersey. Louisiana and Virginia both had divided governments, with Republicans controlling the legislature and Democrats the governorship.

Two states' trifecta status changed as a result of the 2019 elections: Kentucky's Republican trifecta was broken, while Virginia gained a Democratic trifecta. New Jersey remained a Democratic trifecta and Mississippi remained a Republican trifecta, while Louisiana remained under divided government.

Changes in a state government's policy priorities often follow changes in trifecta status, as trifecta control affords a political party the opportunity to advance its agenda. Gaining or breaking trifectas—or in some cases, maintaining divided government—often becomes a major priority for a party heading into each election cycle. "Few ever pay attention to [gubernatorial and state legislative] races, but they’re important for [redistricting] and waves can be leveraged for major gains," according to NBC News reporter Alex Seitz-Wald.^[1] In the preceding 10 years, 69 trifectas were broken or gained.

This page assessed the vulnerability of Republican trifectas in Kentucky and Mississippi and the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey in the 2019 elections. It also assessed the likelihood of new trifectas forming in Louisiana and Virginia.^[2] Click here for our methodology.

Summary[edit]

Which states had the potential to change trifecta status in 2019? Click to watch View other episodes here.

To calculate the vulnerability of existing trifectas in Kentucky, Mississippi, and New Jersey, Ballotpedia individually considered the likelihood of the majority party losing each trifecta component (governorship, state senate, and state house) up for election. Ballotpedia used race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections to assess the likelihood of each party winning gubernatorial races. For state legislative races, Ballotpedia used the percentage of seats up for election which would need to flip in order to change partisan control of the chamber. To calculate the chance of new trifectas forming in Louisiana and Virginia, Ballotpedia considered both parties' chances of gaining control of the components they did not hold.

Kentucky[edit]

Heading into the 2019 elections, Kentucky had been a Republican trifecta since the start of the 2017 legislative session. Kentucky held an election for governor in 2019. Since there were no regularly scheduled legislative elections in the state in 2019, a Republican victory in the gubernatorial election would have preserved Kentucky's Republican trifecta while a Democratic victory would have broken it. Election forecasters rated the race Toss-up, meaning Kentucky's Republican trifecta was moderately vulnerable.

Governor[edit]

Gov. Matt Bevin (R)

See also: Kentucky gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2019

Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear (D) defeated Gov. Matt Bevin (R) and John Hicks (L) in Kentucky's gubernatorial election on November 5, 2019.^[3] Beshear's victory meant that Kentucky transitioned from a Republican state government trifecta to divided government. This election followed nearly four years of conflict between Bevin and Beshear, which began when each was elected in 2015. The main issues in the race were healthcare and education funding.

Daniel Desrochers of the Lexington Herald-Leader said of the relationship between Bevin and Beshear that "the two men found in each other a rival to battle in courtroom filings, newspaper headlines and social media posts."^[4] The campaign elevated this conflict, with the candidates exchanging personal attacks. Bevin called Beshear’s family “crooked and corrupt,” while the Beshear campaign has called Bevin wild, a bully, and "an unhinged failure."^[5][6] For more information on how and in what policy areas Bevin and Beshear have disagreed, click here.

Bevin and Beshear had differing proposals for the state’s healthcare system. Bevin said that he would impose work requirements on Medicaid recipients, while Beshear said that he would enact consumer protections based on the Affordable Care Act.^[7]

Education took center stage following a teacher walkout in spring 2018 that closed more than 20 schools across the state. Teachers were protesting changes to their pensions and to state education funding. Bevin and Beshear disagreed on the best formula for funding, vouchers, and cost sharing between state and local governments.^[8]

Healthcare and education were evident as priorities in each candidates' selection of a lieutenant gubernatorial running mate.^[9] Bevin chose state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, a physician, as his running mate, becoming the third governor in a row to select a new running mate for their re-election bid.^[10][11] Beshear chose assistant high school principal Jacqueline Coleman.^[12]

Race ratings[edit]

Historical control[edit]

When Kentucky Republicans gained their first ever majority in the state Senate in the 2000 elections, they broke a Democratic trifecta that had lasted since Gov. Wendell Ford (D) was elected in 1971. Republicans won the 2003 gubernatorial election and Democrats retook the seat in the 2007 election. Bevin's election in 2015 returned the governorship to Republican hands, while the 2016 elections saw the state House pass under Republican control for the first time since 1920. This created a Republican trifecta in Kentucky that was in place until the 2019 elections.

Louisiana[edit]

Heading into the 2019 elections, Louisiana had been under divided government since Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) assumed office in 2016. Edwards was a Democrat while Republicans held majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Louisiana held elections for governor, all 39 state Senate seats, and all 105 state House seats. In order to win a trifecta, Republicans needed to maintain their majorities in the state legislature while winning the gubernatorial election. Democrats needed to win majorities in both chambers of the state legislature while holding the governorship.

In the October 12, 2019, primary elections, Republicans won 25 seats in the state Senate and 63 seats in the state House, enough to form a majority in both chambers. This meant that Democrats could not gain a trifecta in Louisiana in 2019. Because the gubernatorial election was rated Toss-up, Ballotpedia rated the chances of a Republican trifecta forming as a moderate possibility.

Governor[edit]

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D)

See also: Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2019

Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) defeated businessman Eddie Rispone (R) in the general election for governor of Louisiana on November 16, 2019.

Louisiana elections use the Louisiana majority-vote system. All candidates compete in the same primary, and a candidate can win the election outright by receiving more than 50% of the vote. If no candidate does, the top two vote recipients from the primary advance to the general election, regardless of their partisan affiliation.

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

At the time of the election, Edwards was the only Democratic governor in the Deep South, and he was the only Democrat holding statewide office in Louisiana.^[13] He defeated U.S. Sen. David Vitter (R) in 2015 and succeeded Bobby Jindal (R) in the governor's office, breaking a Republican trifecta in the state. Democratic Governors Association (DGA) spokesperson Jared Leopold said, "Gov. Edwards is in a strong position for re-election and is one of the most popular governors in America for a reason: He’s working across party lines to get things done for Louisianans."^[14][15] Republican Governors Association (RGA) spokesperson Jon Thompson said the race would be competitive due to "the state’s solid red hue combined with President Trump’s 20-point victory in 2016."^[14][16]

Race ratings[edit]

State Senate[edit]

See also: Louisiana State Senate elections, 2019

Elections for all 39 seats in the Louisiana State Senate took place in 2019. The primary was on October 12, 2019, and the general election was on November 16. The filing deadline for candidates was August 8, 2019. Republicans won a 25-seat majority in the October 12 primaries.

Past elections[edit]

State House[edit]

See also: Louisiana House of Representatives elections, 2019

After maintaining their majority in the Louisiana House of Representatives during the primary elections on October 12, 2019, Republicans secured a 68-35 majority with two independent members in the November 16 general election. Heading into the primaries, Republicans held a 60-39 majority with five independent members and one vacancy in a seat previously held by a Republican. All 105 seats were up for election in 2019; 24 of those races required general elections. As a result of the October 12 primary elections, in which candidates could win a seat outright by receiving more than 50% of the vote, 63 House seats were guaranteed to Republicans, 33 to Democrats, and one to an independent. The 2019 elections resulted in a net gain of seven seats for Republicans and a net loss of four seats for Democrats.

Party control of eight House seats was decided in the general election. Of those races, five were won by Republicans, two were won by Democrats, and one was won by an independent. Republican candidates would have needed to win all seven races in which they were facing a Democratic or independent candidate in order to win a 70-seat supermajority in the House. The eighth race in which party control was decided was between a Democrat and an independent. The other 16 races were between two candidates from the same party.

Republicans secured a supermajority in the state Senate in the October 12 primary election.^[17] With supermajorities in the House and Senate, Republicans would have had the ability to both override a gubernatorial veto and vote to place a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the ballot. A supermajority would also have increased the likelihood of the state calling a constitutional convention, according to political consultant Clay Young.^[18]

These were also the last elections before the state government would redraw congressional and state legislative districts following the 2020 Census.^[19] If Republicans had won veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, they would have had control over Louisiana's redistricting process, regardless of the gubernatorial election's outcome, assuming party cohesion.

Heading into the election, Louisiana had a divided government, which was maintained when incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) won the gubernatorial election on November 16. Republicans won 63 seats, enough for a majority, in the October 12, 2019, primaries.

Past elections[edit]

Historical control[edit]

Republican Mike Foster's victory in the 1995 gubernatorial election brought an end to a 12-year Democratic trifecta. Democrats regained the governor's office—and trifecta status—in 2003 before losing them again in 2007. State Rep. Walker Hines (D) joined the Republican Party on November 12, 2010, giving it a majority in the state House for the first time in modern political history.^[20] Victory in a February 2011 state senate special election gave the party its first majority in the chamber since Reconstruction and established a Republican trifecta.^[21] Edwards' election in 2015 broke the Republican trifecta.

Mississippi[edit]

Heading into the 2019 elections, Mississippi had been a Republican trifecta since the beginning of the 2012 legislative session. Mississippi held elections for governor, all 52 state Senate seats, and all 122 state House seats in 2019. In order to maintain their trifecta, Republicans needed to hold the governor's office and maintain their legislative majorities. In order to gain a trifecta, Democrats needed to take the governor's office and win majorities in both legislative chambers.

Election forecasters rated the governor's race Leans Republican. Democrats needed to either win that election, flip seven out of 52 state Senate seats (13.5%), or flip 15 out of 122 state House seats (12.3%) in order to break the Republican trifecta. Ballotpedia assessed Mississippi's Republican trifecta as moderately vulnerable.

Republicans won 75 seats in the state House to Democrats' 46 and independents' one. Democrats gained a net two seats and Republicans gained a net one seat. In the state Senate, Republicans won 36 seats to Democrats' 16, meaning that Republicans gained a net five seats while Democrats lost two. At the time of the election, two seats were vacant in the House and three were vacant in the Senate.

Governor[edit]

See also: Mississippi gubernatorial election, 2019

Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) defeated state Attorney General Jim Hood (D), Bob Hickingbottom (Constitution), and David Singletary (I) in the November 5, 2019, election for governor of Mississippi. Reeves received 52.2% of the vote to Hood's 46.5%.^[22]

Term limits prevented incumbent Phil Bryant (R) from seeking re-election, leaving the seat open to a newcomer.

Reeves defeated former state Supreme Court Chief Justice William Waller (R) in an August 27 runoff after no candidate won a majority of the vote in the Republican primary.

In the Democratic primary, Hood won the nomination over seven other candidates.

Hood was first elected state attorney general in 2003 and served in that office through the 2019 election. Hood won election to each of his four terms as state attorney general by a margin of 10 percentage points or larger.^[23] Hood said he was a moderate: "I reload guns. I'm pro-life. People have seen my record for 16 years, so it gives a comfort level to Republicans to cross over." Reeves said that Hood was no moderate: "He’s a liberal Democrat, he has been for 16 years, he continues to be, and that's okay...There are some people in Mississippi that are looking for a liberal Democrat to represent them in the governor's office. But if you are a conservative, I think that you only have one option."^[24]

Reeves said that he cut taxes and lowered the state debt while in office, with a Reeves campaign ad saying that "Mississippi's got less debt today than when I got elected, first time in history. More of our people are working than ever before."^[25] Hood says that Reeves' tax cuts did not benefit the average Mississippian: "Since 2012, Reeves has handed out $765 million in tax giveaways, mainly to benefit large, out-of-state corporations...When politicians crow about how many times they’ve cut taxes, look at your own pocketbook to see how much tax relief you’ve gotten."^[26]

Both Reeves and Hood accused one another of ethics violations, with both saying that their opponent had identified policy priorities based on the interests of campaign donors.^[27]

As of October 29, 2019, three race ratings agencies rated the race Leans Republican.

To win the general election, a candidate needed to receive a majority in the popular vote and win a majority of Mississippi's 122 state house districts. Had no candidate fulfilled both of these requirements, the Mississippi House of Representatives would have selected the winner.^[28] As of November 2019, Republicans held a 74-44 majority in the state House.

On May 30, 2019, four voters, backed by the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, sued to overturn the procedure for electing the governor, alleging it discriminated against black candidates. On November 1, 2019, Judge Daniel Jordan announced that he would not issue an injunction blocking the procedure.^[29] Read more here.

Race ratings[edit]

State Senate[edit]

See also: Mississippi State Senate elections, 2019

Elections for all 52 seats in the Mississippi State Senate took place in 2019. The primary was on August 6, 2019, the primary runoff was on August 27, and the general election was on November 5. The filing deadline for candidates was March 1, 2019.^[30]

Past elections[edit]

State House[edit]

See also: Mississippi House of Representatives elections, 2019

Elections for all 122 seats in the Mississippi House of Representatives took place in 2019. The primary was on August 6, 2019, the primary runoff was on August 27, and the general election was on November 5. The filing deadline for candidates was March 1, 2019.^[32]

Past elections[edit]

Historical control[edit]

Republican Kirk Fordice's election as governor in 1992 broke a 116-year period of Democratic control of the office. Democrats would retake the governor's office and trifecta status in the 1999 elections before losing both again in 2003. In 2007, state Sen. James Walley switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party, bringing the chamber's balance of power to 26-26, with Republicans controlling the tie-breaking vote.^[34] Democrats regained control of the chamber in that year's election before losing it once again following a legislator's change in party registration. In the 2011 state House elections, Republicans took control of the chamber for the first time, creating a Republican trifecta in Mississippi.

New Jersey[edit]

Heading into the 2019 elections, New Jersey had been a Democratic trifecta since Gov. Phil Murphy (D) took office in 2018. New Jersey held elections for all 80 state Assembly seats in 2019. In order to preserve their trifecta, Democrats needed to maintain their majority in the state Assembly. In order to break the Democratic trifecta, Republicans needed to win a majority in the state Assembly. Because there were no gubernatorial or regularly scheduled state Senate elections in New Jersey in 2019, New Jersey's trifecta status could only change as a result of the Assembly elections. Because Republicans needed to flip 14 out of 80 state Assembly seats (17.5%), Ballotpedia rated New Jersey's Democratic trifecta as not vulnerable.

Democrats won 52 Assembly seats to Republicans' 28.

State Assembly[edit]

See also: New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2019

Elections for all 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly took place in 2019. The primary was on June 4, 2019, and the general election was on November 5. The filing deadline for candidates was April 1, 2019. The filing deadline for third party and independent candidates was June 4, 2019.^[35]

Past elections[edit]

Historical control[edit]

Republican Christine Todd Whitman's election as governor in 1993 created a Republican trifecta in New Jersey that lasted until the 2001 elections, when Democrats took the governor's office and General Assembly and control of the state Senate was split. In the 2003 elections, Democrats gained a state Senate majority and a trifecta. Chris Christie's (R) election as governor in 2009 broke the Democratic trifecta. It was restored with Phil Murphy's (D) election as governor in 2017.

Virginia[edit]

Heading into the 2019 elections, Virginia had been under divided government since Gov. Mark Warner (D) took office in 2002. Gov. Ralph Northam was a Democrat while Republicans held majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Virginia held elections for all 40 state Senate seats and all 100 state House seats. Because the governorship was not up for election, Republicans could not win a trifecta in 2019. In order to prevent Democrats from gaining a trifecta, Republicans needed to maintain their majority in at least one chamber of the legislature. In order to gain a trifecta, Democrats needed to win both.

While each chamber was controlled by a margin of one seat, Democrats needed to flip two or more seats in both chambers in order to avoid sharing power. Because Democrats needed to flip two out of 40 seats (5%) in the state Senate and two out of 100 seats (2%) in the state House in order to gain majorities, Ballotpedia rated the chances of a Democratic trifecta forming in Virginia as a moderate possibility.

Democrats won 21 state Senate seats to Republicans' 19, a net gain of two seats. In the state House, Democrats won 55 seats to Republicans' 45, a net gain of seven seats (including one seat which was vacant at the time of the election).

State Senate[edit]

See also: Virginia State Senate elections, 2019

Past elections[edit]

State House[edit]

See also: Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2019

Past elections[edit]

Historical control[edit]

In the 25 years leading up to the election, partisan control of Virginia often shifted, with no trifecta lasting longer than two years. Democrats had trifectas in 2008-2009 while Republicans had trifectas between 2000-2001 and 2012-2013. As of the election, Democrats had held the governorship since the 2013 election while Republicans had held the state Senate since 2015 and the state House since 2000.

Historical changes in trifecta status[edit]

See also: Historical and potential changes in trifectas

Between 2009 and Election Day 2019, there were 69 changes in a state's trifecta status. There were 11 states whose trifecta status did not change during this time; one that remained a Democratic trifecta, one that remained under divided government, and nine that remained Republican trifectas. Colorado's trifecta status changed four times during this period, more than any other state. The map below shows how many changes in trifecta status occurred in each state between 2009 and 2019. Hover over a state or tap on it for more information on its changes in trifecta status.

Trifecta vulnerability in 2018[edit]

See also: Trifecta vulnerability in the 2018 elections

Heading into the 2018 elections, Republicans controlled 26 trifectas while Democrats controlled eight. Democrats gained six trifectas while Republicans lost four. The following tables detail Ballotpedia's projections for each state holding elections that year:

Republican trifectas
State	Projection	Trifecta broken?
Alabama	Not vulnerable	d
Arizona	Moderately vulnerable	d
Arkansas	Not vulnerable	d
Florida	Highly vulnerable	d
Georgia	Moderately vulnerable	d
Idaho	Not vulnerable	d
Indiana	Not vulnerable	d
Iowa	Moderately vulnerable	d
Kansas	Moderately vulnerable
Kentucky	Not vulnerable	d
Michigan	Highly vulnerable
Mississippi	Not vulnerable	d
Missouri	Not vulnerable	d
Nebraska	Not vulnerable	d
New Hampshire	Highly vulnerable
North Dakota	Not vulnerable	d
Ohio	Highly vulnerable	d
Oklahoma	Somewhat vulnerable	d
South Carolina	Not vulnerable	d
South Dakota	Somewhat vulnerable	d
Tennessee	Not vulnerable	d
Texas	Not vulnerable	d
Utah	Not vulnerable	d
West Virginia	Not vulnerable	d
Wisconsin	Highly vulnerable
Wyoming	Not vulnerable	d

Democratic trifectas
State	Projection	Trifecta broken?
California	Not vulnerable	d
Connecticut	Highly vulnerable	d
Delaware	Highly vulnerable	d
Hawaii	Not vulnerable	d
New Jersey	Not vulnerable	d
Oregon	Highly vulnerable	d
Rhode Island	Somewhat vulnerable	d
Washington	Moderately vulnerable	d

Potential new trifectas
State	Projection	Trifecta formed?
Alaska	Toss-up	d None
Colorado	Moderate possibility of a Democratic gain	Democratic
Illinois	Moderate possibility of a Democratic gain	Democratic
Maine	Toss-up	Democratic
Maryland	Toss-up	d None
Massachusetts	Toss-up	d None
Minnesota	Slight possibility of a Republican gain	d None
Montana	Slight possibility of a Democratic gain	d None
Nevada	Toss-up	Democratic
New Mexico	Moderate possibility of a Democratic gain	Democratic
New York	Moderate possibility of a Democratic gain	Democratic
North Carolina	Slight possibility of a Democratic gain	d None
Pennsylvania	Toss-up	d None
Vermont	Slight possibility of a Republican gain	d None

Trifecta status[edit]

At the time of the 2019 elections, there were trifectas in 36 of the 50 states.

• 22 Republican
• 14 Democratic

Method[edit]

Assessing trifecta vulnerability[edit]

Ballotpedia rates trifectas as not vulnerable, somewhat vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and highly vulnerable. We individually assess the likelihood that each component of a trifecta—control of the governorship, the upper chamber of the state Legislature, and the lower chamber of the state Legislature—changes party hands.

Gubernatorial races[edit]

The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:

• 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the majority party or is likely to be won by the majority party.
• 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the majority party.
• 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the minority party.

Legislative races[edit]

Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Both chambers in a state's legislature are evaluated individually. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:

• 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
• 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
• 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.

Overall assessment[edit]

The sum of the three individual ratings is used to determine the state's overall rating:

In states which held elections for only two trifecta components in 2019, the sum of the two remaining ratings is used instead:

In states which held elections for only one trifecta component in 2019, vulnerability was calculated as follows:

Assessing potential new trifectas[edit]

To determine the possibility of a particular party forming a trifecta in a state where one does not exist, we consider the likelihood of that party taking control of each individual trifecta component it lacks.

For instance, at the time of the 2018 elections, the Republican Party controlled the governorship in Illinois while the Democratic Party controlled majorities in both houses of the state Legislature. Therefore, projections on the outcome of the gubernatorial election indicated the likelihood of a Democratic trifecta forming, while projections on the outcome of the legislative elections indicated the likelihood of a Republican trifecta forming.

In the event that a Democratic and Republican trifecta are equally likely to form, the state is considered a toss-up potential trifecta.

Gubernatorial races[edit]

The basis for ratings in gubernatorial races are race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. Gubernatorial seats are rated as follows:

• 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 0 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is either safe for the incumbent's party or is likely to be won by the incumbent's party.
• 1 (chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 1 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election leans towards the incumbent's party.
• 2 (significant chance of flipping): A seat is rated at 2 if the overall assessment from the three ratings agencies is that the election is a toss-up or favors the challenger's party.

Legislative races[edit]

Legislative races are assessed based on the absolute number of seats and the proportion of seats that would need to be flipped. Legislative chambers are rated as follows:

• 0 (no significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 0 if more than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
• 1 (chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 1 if less than 15 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.
• 2 (significant chance of flipping): A chamber is rated at 2 if less than 5 percent of the seats up for election would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber. A chamber is also rated at 2 if fewer than five seats in total would need to be flipped in order to change control of the chamber.

To assess the overall likelihood of a trifecta forming, the scores of the individual components are added together. If the party lacks two trifecta components, the two ratings are totaled as follows:

If the party lacks only one trifecta component, a rating is determined as follows:

Footnotes[edit]

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v • e State government trifectas and triplexes Overview Gubernatorial and legislative party control of state government • State government trifectas and triplexes • State government trifectas • State government triplexes • Historical and potential changes in trifectas • Conflicts between governors and attorneys general • Conflicts between governors and secretaries of state • Trifectas and legislatively referred constitutional amendments • Who Runs the States Party control of state government Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming Trifecta vulnerability analyses by year 2018 • 2019 • 2020 • 2021• 2022• 2023 Post-election analyses by year 2018 • 2019 (trifectas, triplexes) • 2020 (trifectas, triplexes, presidential) • 2021 (trifectas, triplexes) • 2022 (trifectas, triplexes)