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    United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

    From Ballotpedia - Reading time: 28 min


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    U.S. Senate, Arizona
    Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
    Democratic primary
    Republican primary
    General election
    Election details
    Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
    Primary: August 28, 2018
    General: November 6, 2018
    Pre-election incumbent:
    Jeff Flake (Republican)
    How to vote
    Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
    Voting in Arizona
    Race ratings
    Cook Political Report: Toss-up
    Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
    Inside Elections: Toss-up
    Ballotpedia analysis
    U.S. Senate battlegrounds
    U.S. House battlegrounds
    Federal and state primary competitiveness
    Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
    See also
    U.S. Senate, Arizona
    U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special)
    Arizona elections, 2018
    U.S. Congress elections, 2018
    U.S. Senate elections, 2018
    U.S. House elections, 2018

    U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R) defeated former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) in the three-way battle for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona on August 28, 2018. Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R) did not seek re-election for this toss-up seat critical to Republicans retaining control of the U.S. Senate.

    In addition to leading in polls released in July and August by double digits, McSally was supported by party leaders and top donors.[1] During the primary, DefendArizona reserved $5 million in ad time for the general election for McSally. The Senate Leadership Fund was also briefly involved in the primary, spending five figures on an online campaign against Ward in 2017.[2][3][4]

    The two primary ideological battlegrounds in the race were immigration policy and support for the Trump administration's agenda.

    Ward criticized McSally’s cosponsorship of an immigration measure that would have allowed a pathway to citizenship for individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as minors.[5] McSally withdrew her support from that bill and promoted the Securing America's Future Act, a move the Ward campaign said was evidence of McSally changing her positions for political gain.[6]

    Ward aligned with Trump’s immigration policy, penning an editorial in the Washington Examiner supporting the administration's zero-tolerance policy and separations. She noted that she also opposed amnesty.[7]

    McSally was critical of Trump during the 2016 presidential campaign.[8] As a member of the U.S. House, McSally voted with Trump 98 percent of the time.[9]

    Arpaio emphasized his support for the president in interviews and campaign materials.[10] Trump pardoned Arpaio in 2017 after he was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to stop conduct in the sheriff’s office found to be discriminatory. Arpaio wanted to take his strict position on immigration enforcement to Washington, D.C.[11][12]

    Although this seat had been held by a Republican for more than two decades, Democrats identified it as a primary target.[13] The Hill named it one of the seats most likely to flip in 2018.[14]



    Candidates and election results[edit]

    See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

    Martha McSally defeated Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona on August 28, 2018.

    Republican primary for U.S. Senate Arizona

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    ✔

    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Martha_McSally_official_congressional_photo.jpg

    		Martha McSally
     
    54.6
     
    		357,626

    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kelli_Ward_2.png

    		Kelli Ward
     
    27.6
     
    		180,926

    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JoeArpaio.jpg

    		Joe Arpaio
     
    17.8
     
    		116,555

    There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

    		Total votes: 655,107

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


    Top candidates[edit]

    Joe Arpaio[edit]

    JoeArpaio.jpg

    Campaign website Facebook Twitter

    Arpaio was county sheriff of Maricopa County, Arizona, serving from 1993 to 2017. He previously served as a police officer in Washington, D.C. and Las Vegas. His professional experience also includes working as a federal narcotics agent and as the head of the Drug Enforcement Administration for Arizona. He also served in the Army.[15]

    "I have a lot to offer. I’m a big supporter of President Trump. I’m going to have to work hard; you don’t take anything for granted. But I would not being doing this if I thought that I could not win. I’m not here to get my name in the paper. I get that everyday, anyway," Arpaio said when announcing his candidacy in January 2018.[16]

    Arpaio emphasized immigration enforcement and complete support of the Trump administration's agenda as policy priorities.[16]

    Martha McSally[edit]

    Martha McSally official congressional photo 114th congress.jpg

    Campaign website Facebook Twitter

    McSally was first elected to the U.S. House in 2014 to represent the Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. She graduated from the U.S. Air Force Academy and served in the Air Force for 26 years before retiring in 2010 as a colonel. She also earned a master's degree in public policy from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a master's degree in strategic studies from the U.S. Air War College.[17]

    In Congress, she has served on the Committees on Armed Services and Homeland Security, including chairing the Border and Maritime Security Subcommittee.[18] When announcing her candidacy, McSally said, "Like our president, I'm tired of PC politicians and their BS excuses. I'm a fighter pilot and I talk like one—that's why I told Washington Republicans to grow a pair of ovaries and get the job done."[19]

    McSally highlighted the following policy goals in a campaign ad: "Supporting our troops and saving the A-10 [fighter jet], protecting Arizona jobs, and securing the border."[20]

    Kelli Ward[edit]

    Kelli Ward 2.png

    Campaign website Facebook Twitter

    Ward was a member of the Arizona State Senate, representing District 5 from 2013 to 2015.[21] She earned her bachelor's degree from Duke University and medical degree from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine. She practices emergency medicine in Lake Havasu City and Kingman.[22]

    "I have been selected by the people of our state and the people of our country, who are looking for a conservative voice in the United States Senate. And unfortunately for us in Arizona, we don't have a conservative Republican senator. We don't have a senator who supports the President at all. And so 2018, it's time for a change," she said when discussing her candidacy.[23]

    On her campaign website, Ward identified border security, healthcare, simplifying the tax code, and reducing the federal deficit as some of her policy priorities.[24]


    Polls[edit]

    See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
    U.S. Senate election in Arizona, Republican primary, Arpaio vs. McSally vs. Ward
    Poll Martha McSally Joe ArpaioKelli WardUndecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Data Orbital
    August 21-22, 2018    		 48%18%22%12%+/-4.0600
    ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
    August 14-15, 2018    		 47%13%27%12%+/-4.0578
    ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
    July 23-25, 2018    		 35%15%27%23%+/-4.1576
    Gravis
    June 27-July 2, 2018    		 36%24%27%13%+/-4.4501
    Emerson
    June 21-22, 2018    		 32%18%19%23%+/-5.9305
    NBC News/Marist College
    June 17-21, 2018    		 30%21%28%21%+/-6.7371
    OH Predictive Insights
    June 11-12, 2018    		 39.3%13.8%24.5%22.4%+/-4.0600
    Remington Research (commissioned by McSally)
    May 23-24, 2018    		 42%25%23%10%+/-2.32,011
    Magellan Strategies
    April 11-15, 2018    		 36%26%25%13%+/-3.6755
    ABC15/OHPI
    April 10-11, 2018    		 27%22%36%15%+/-5.6302
    Data Orbital
    January 11-15, 2018    		 31%22%19%28%+/-4.4500
    ABC15/OHPI
    January 9, 2018    		 31%29%25%15%+/-4.4504
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


    U.S. Senate election in Arizona, Republican primary, McSally vs. Ward
    Poll McSally WardUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
    WPA Intelligence
    November 15-16, 2017    		 38%36%26%+/-4.4500
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


    U.S. Senate election in Arizona, Republican primary
    Poll Kelli Ward Martha McSallyMatt SalmonDavid SchweikertJohn ShadeggJay HeilerUndecidedRefusedMargin of ErrorSample Size
    Data Orbital
    October 26-28, 2017    		 26%19%10%5%4%1%28%6%+/-4.4500
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


    U.S. Senate election in Arizona, Republican primary
    Poll Ward FlakeTutoraUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
    GBA Strategies
    August 30-September 7, 2017    		 58%31%0%11%+/-4.4500
    JMC Analytics
    August 26-27, 2017    		 47%21%3%29%+/-4.4500
    Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

    Race ratings[edit]

    Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

    • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
    • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
    • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[25]
    • Tossup ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

    Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[26][27][28]

    Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Arizona, 2018
    Race trackerRace ratings
    October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
    The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

    Endorsements[edit]

    The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for Republican candidates in the primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona.

    Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at federal@ballotpedia.org.

    Republican candidate endorsements
    Endorsement Arpaio McSally Ward
    Federal officials
    Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.)[29] ✔
    Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa)[30] ✔
    Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)[31] ✔
    Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.)[32] ✔
    Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon[33][34][35] ✔
    State officials
    Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R)[36] ✔
    Organizations
    Maggie's List[37] ✔
    Winning for Women[38] ✔
    Great America PAC[39] ✔
    Gun Owners of America[40] ✔


    Campaign themes and policy stances[edit]

    Campaign themes[edit]

    Craig Brittain[edit]

    The following issues were listed on Brittain's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

    “
    • Immediate Care for Veterans. Peace and Security for Citizens: No more waiting for the VA for care. Craig’s platform includes a bill that will give veterans immediate access to private healthcare. Craig will work directly with President Trump, Vice President Pence and others to make sure No Veteran is Left Behind. Craig also strongly believes in the US military as a defensive force and not the world’s police. We will bring the troops home and stop fighting Endless Wars. He will also author a bill allowing citizens to defend their borders according to Trump’s 'Build The Wall' plan.
    • Ending Taxation and the Federal Reserve. Protecting Speech: Craig will work to repeal the 16th Amendment and the Federal Reserve Act. He will also push for a revolutionary but economically sound balanced budget via a Debt Brake. The Federal Government, like the citizens it governs, cannot be allowed to spend money that it does not have and 'pass the buck' to the working and middle class who are already stretched thin. Craig believes the First Amendment protects all speech without limits. He will repeal many unconstitutional regulations on speech.
    • Grandfathering Government Programs: Craig will author a Constitutional Amendment which allows individuals to opt out of any government program that they do not wish to participate in or give money to, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, and guarantee full immediate refunds to citizens who paid into government programs. Those who wish to remain on those programs will not be affected.
    • Decriminalization of Non-Crimes: Gun ownership is an inalienable right. Craig will extend the Second Amendment via a bill which nullifies 'Gun Free Zones', allows National Open Carry and removes any regulations regarding firearms, as well as any prohibitions from firearm ownership. Craig will also fully decriminalize marijuana via a new Constitutional Amendment (similar to the 21st Amendment which ended Prohibition), and move to treat drug addiction as a medical issue rather than a crime, ending a costly Drug War and saving countless lives.[41]
    		 ”
    —Craig Brittain for U.S. Senate, Arizona

    Nicholas Tutora[edit]

    The following issues were listed on Tutora's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

    “
    • Washington D.C. requires Citizens not politicians. Arizonans need their voices spoken on Capitol Hill, not the the voices of current Establishment officials that serve their desires and not that of their Citizens.
    • A Senator that will take on the entrenched, unelected, Deep State. The Federal Government is out of control and needs to be made accountable once more to the Electorate.
    • Our Immigration System is so broken that fresh ideas are required. Bowing to the special interests on this matter is not acceptable, but the real human toll must be shown on Our Citizens and those crossing our borders illegally.
    • The Government's expanding over-reaches violate the 4th Amendment. A government that can willfully violate our privacy is not a Republic; but rather, it becomes tyranny.
    • Address the growing debt of our families and youth for Higher Education. It is not reasonable to have a young person graduate with a debt that will only grow with interest as they begin their careers.[41]
    		 ”
    —Nicholas Tutora for U.S. Senate from Arizona

    Kelli Ward[edit]

    The following issues were listed on Ward's campaign website. For a full list of campaign themes and policy priorities, click here.

    “
    • The Constitution: Kelli agrees with the late Justice Scalia’s view that 'The Constitution is not a living organism. It's a legal document, and it says what it says and doesn't say what it doesn't say.' Even more importantly, Kelli believes that our rights are granted by God, not government. Although the rights of the people are unlimited and unenumerated, federal powers are strictly limited by their enumeration in Article I, Section 8. According to the Ninth and Tenth Amendments, all other rights and powers belong to the people and the States respectively.
    • Education: Education is a huge part of Kelli’s life, as a mom and a lifelong student. As a doctor, she never stops learning. And as a parent, she wants the next generation to have even more opportunity than the last. That’s why it’s so important to rethink the way our education system is run. We need to stop letting faraway politicians micromanage our children’s education. Politicians in Washington don’t know what’s best for kids in Arizona – we as parents do. Kelli supports school choice for all families, no matter where they live.
    • Faith & Family: Kelli believes that traditional principles and values strengthen our communities and make America stronger. Her professional record as a physician and her record as an Arizona State Senator have proven that she is and has always been pro-life.
    • Gun Rights: There is no right more fundamental to the character and safety of our nation than the right to keep and bear arms. Our Founding Fathers understood that fact, which is why our constitution ensures that it shall not be infringed. Kelli will stand up to the constant infringements on our Constitutional rights. Her record supporting Second Amendment rights is undeniable -- that's why she was endorsed by the Gun Owners of America and National Association for Gun Rights in 2016.
    • Healthcare: Kelli has seen all sides of America’s healthcare system, from medical school, to private practice, to the emergency room, and beyond. She knows there is nothing wrong with our healthcare system that can be fixed by Washington politicians or scheming bureaucrats. As a D.O., Kelli has been recognized by patients and peers alike for achievements in the field of medicine, and the principles she relies on as a physician are sorely needed in our healthcare debate.[41]
    		 ”
    —Dr. Kelli Ward for U.S. Senate

    Changes in immigration policy[edit]

    McSally withdrew her cosponsorship of an immigration measure that would have allowed a pathway to citizenship for individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as minors on May 10, 2018. Her office clarified that McSally supported the Securing America’s Future Act, instead, which she co-sponsored in January 2018. That bill would end the diversity visa program and grant "contingent nonimmigrant status" instead of citizenship to individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as children.[42]

    The Ward campaign accused McSally of having an "identity crisis" and said Ward would continue to promote "pro-border, pro-law" policies.[42] Ward opposes the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, calling it "Obama's unconstitutional amnesty program."[43]

    The Arpaio campaign also criticized McSally for changing her position.[42] In January 2018, Arpaio said that he would deport all individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as children. "I would deport these Dreamers and let them see the country they came from, be ambassadors to our country, and later on give them kind of a fast track to come back into the United States legally and that would take care of a lot of issues," he said.[44]

    McSally campaign spokeswoman Kelly Schibi said, "Congresswoman McSally is a lead author and champion of the Securing America's Future Act, a border security bill that fully funds the wall, cracks down on sanctuary cities and criminal illegal gangs, and addresses the DACA population. The Congresswoman's bill is the only bill in the House that President Trump and Secretary Nielsen support."[42]

    March 2018 spending bill[edit]

    President Donald Trump (R) signed a $1.3 trillion spending bill into law on March 23, 2018. The bill included $695 billion in defense funding and $591 billion in non-defense funding. McSally supported the bill, while Ward opposed to it.

    • Martha McSally: "Our military is climbing out of a readiness crisis while facing threats on many fronts, our borders are vulnerable to cartels and gangs, our infrastructure needs rebuilding, our communities are reeling from an opioid epidemic, our schools are unsafe, and our country needs to invest in these pressing matters to once again be safe, strong, and prosperous. That’s what this spending bill is about—and that’s why it is vital that Congress come together now to support it. This legislation contains big wins for Arizona that I have personally fought to include that will re-wing more A-10s, support local law enforcement in our border communities, take care of our seniors, fund wildland fire suppression, and address maintenance needs at our national parks. No funding bill will be 100% perfect—but this spending bill includes our highest priorities and is backed by the President. I am proud to support it today."[45]
    • Kelli Ward: "If you were looking for a clear distinction between me and my opponent, now you have it. Today, Rep. Martha McSally said that she was 'proud' to have voted in favor of the $1.3 trillion-dollar spending bill that was written behind closed doors and presented to the American people at the eleventh hour. This spending bill lacks necessary funding for a new southern border wall as well as increases deficit spending while continuing to fund Planned Parenthood, Obamacare, and sanctuary cities."[46]

    Firearms regulation and school shootings[edit]

    Responding to the March 24, 2018, "March for Our Lives" student demonstrations across the country, Ward said, "Guns don't just jump up and cause problems. People who have access to guns who shouldn't are the ones who are really committing these crimes. If you look at Parkland, it was a series of failures of government." She added that raising the age limit to buy rifles won't make "much of a difference."[47]

    McSally said, "We need a multi-layered system to stop school violence and that is why I've worked with Congress to prevent mentally ill individuals from obtaining firearms." She added, "The classroom should be a safe place to focus on learning—not a combat zone."[47]

    Campaign tactics and strategies[edit]

    Campaign ads[edit]

    Martha McSally[edit]

    Support[edit]
    "Guts" - DefendArizona ad, released August 15, 2018
    "Security" - McSally campaign ad, released July 20, 2018
    "Stream" - One Nation ad, released June 14, 2018
    "Deployed" - McSally campaign ad, released January 23, 2018
    • McSally released an ad in August 2018, "The Real Deal," which presents McSally as aligned with Trump on immigration policy.[48]
    Oppose[edit]
    "Breaking News" - Protect Freedom PAC ad, released August 4, 2018
    "Represent" - Red and Gold ad, released August 2, 2018
    "Worse" - Ward ad, released June 7, 2018
    "Same Result McSally" - Ward ad, released January 17, 2018

    Kelli Ward[edit]

    Support[edit]
    "Problem Solver" - Ward campaign ad, released August 2, 2018
    "America First" - Ward campaign ad, released July 2, 2018
    Oppose[edit]
    "Restraint" - DefendArizona ad, released August 11, 2018

    Alleged request for Arpaio to withdraw from race[edit]

    The Arpaio campaign said that Ward campaign manager Shawn Dow met with Arpaio on May 16, 2018, and requested that he withdraw from the race because he was hurting Ward's campaign. In exchange, Dow insinuated he could arrange a paid speaking engagement for Arpaio with the pro-Trump Great America PAC.[49]

    Arpaio said the meeting happened, but expressed disappointment the story had leaked.[49]

    A spokesman for the Ward campaign said that although Dow had a friendship with Arpaio, "[N]o such offer was made and any assertion otherwise is flat-out wrong. False rumors are spread regularly in political campaigns, but we remain laser-focused on winning the primary election."[49]

    Relationship with President Donald Trump[edit]

    • Arpaio said he was running because Trump needed help. Describing a deep connection with the president, Arpaio said in an interview with The Washington Post, "I can read his mind without even talking to him. I think he may be reading mine. Is there something that goes through the airwaves? Mental telepathy?"[50]
      • Trump pardoned Arpaio in 2017 after he was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to stop conduct in the sheriff’s office found to be discriminatory.[51]
    • McSally said in an interview in June 2018, "Since President Trump has taken office, I am working with him. I am invited over to the White House all the time. I have a reputation of being constructive and speaking truth to power."[52] She criticized Trump in 2016 following the release of the "Access Hollywood" tapes. "Trump's comments are disgusting. Joking about sexual assault is unacceptable. I'm appalled," she tweeted.[53]
      • Trump called McSally his friend and "the real deal."[54]
    • In July 2018, Ward captioned a photo of herself with Trump, "Every day I thank God for @realDonaldTrump & the amazing job he is doing to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain both here at home & across the world. As Senator, I will work relentlessly to advance the #AmericaFirst agenda & ensure Arizonans have a voice in Washington they can rely on."
      • Trump tweeted in August 2017, "Great to see that Dr. Kelli Ward is running against Flake Jeff Flake, who is WEAK on borders, crime and a non-factor in Senate."[55]

    Satellite spending[edit]

    • In June 2018, DefendArizona reserved $5 million in television ad time during the general election to support McSally if she won the party's nomination.[56] The group spent more than $3 million on the primary.[57][58]
    • The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee launched two Google search ads against McSally, criticizing her vote to repeal internet privacy regulations established under the Obama administration in 2017, in March 2018.[59]
    • Conservative donor Robert Mercer donated $500,000 to the pro-Ward KelliPAC in July 2018, bringing his total contributions in support of Ward to $800,000. An official from the PAC said the money would be used to launch a campaign presenting McSally as liberal and anti-Trump.[60]
    • Protect Freedom PAC spent $200,000 on a three-ad campaign series that highlighted shifts in McSally's immigration policy and touted Ward's conservative endorsements.[62]
    • Red and Gold, a Democratic group formed in August 2018, spent $815,000 on an ad campaign against McSally.[63]


    Campaign finance[edit]

    The chart below contains data from campaign finance reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


    Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
    Martha McSally Republican Party $21,876,370 $20,952,576 $923,794 As of December 31, 2018
    Kelli Ward Republican Party $3,373,275 $3,424,842 $361 As of December 31, 2018
    Joe Arpaio Republican Party $1,455,918 $1,414,524 $41,394 As of December 31, 2018

    Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," .

    * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
    ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


    Race background[edit]

    White House in talks with possible Republican primary contenders[edit]

    • In June and July 2017, President Donald Trump spoke with state treasurer Jeff DeWit (R) and state party chair Robert Graham (R), both of whom were exploring possible runs against Flake. White House officials also were in contact with former state Sen. Kelli Ward (R), a declared candidate in the race. Politico noted that Flake declined to endorse Trump in the 2016 presidential election: "The White House has met with at least three actual or prospective primary challengers to Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake in recent weeks, a reflection of Donald Trump’s strained relations with the senator and the latest sign of the president’s willingness to play hardball with lawmakers who cross him — even Republican incumbents."[64]

    Two former Ward campaign staffers disavow candidate[edit]

    • On October 17, 2017, Dustin Stockton and Jennifer Lawrence, two former Breitbart reporters who joined Ward's campaign as chief strategist and press secretary, respectively, released a statement disavowing Ward. "Her campaign was such a disaster that we saw an opportunity to prove how much we can help struggling campaigns and we did just that. Unfortunately, she showed that she isn’t up to the task of standing up to the pressure that causes so many candidates to betray voters when they get to Washington," Stockton said.[65]

    Flake decides against re-election[edit]

    Pivot Counties[edit]

    See also: Pivot Counties by state

    Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

    Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

    Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

    The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[67][68]

    In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
    In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.


    State overview[edit]

    Partisan control[edit]

    This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

    Congressional delegation[edit]

    State executives[edit]

    State legislature[edit]

    • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

    Trifecta status[edit]

    • Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

    2018 elections[edit]

    See also: Arizona elections, 2018

    Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

    Demographics[edit]

    Demographic data for Arizona
     ArizonaU.S.
    Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:78.4%73.6%
    Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
    Asian:3%5.1%
    Native American:4.4%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
    Two or more:3.2%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
    College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$50,255$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[69][70]

    State election history[edit]

    This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

    Historical elections[edit]

    Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

    This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

    Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 45.1% 3.6%
    2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 9.1%
    2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 45.1% 7.5%
    2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 54.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 44.4% 10.5%
    2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.5% 5.5%

    U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

    This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

    Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Republican Party John McCain 53.7% Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 13.0%
    2012 Republican Party Jeff Flake 49.2% Democratic Party Richard Carmona 46.2% 3.0%
    2010 Republican Party John McCain 58.9% Democratic Party Rodney Glassman 34.7% 24.2%
    2006 Republican Party Jon Kyl 53.3% Democratic Party Jim Pederson 43.5% 9.8%
    2004 Republican Party John McCain 76.7% Democratic Party Stuart Starky 20.6% 56.1%
    2002 Republican Party Jon Kyl 79.3% Grey.png William Toel (I) 7.8% 7.8%

    Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

    This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

    Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2014 Republican Party Doug Ducey 53.4% Democratic Party Fred DuVal 41.6% 11.8%
    2010 Republican Party Jan Brewer 54.3% Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.4% 12.1%
    2006 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 62.6% Republican Party Len Munsil 35.4% 27.2%
    2002 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 46.2% Republican Party Matt Salmon 45.2% 1.0%'

    Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

    This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

    Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
    Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
    2016 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
    2014 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
    2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
    2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
    2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
    2006 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% Even
    2004 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
    2002 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
    2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.6% R+4

    Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

    A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

    Arizona Party Control: 1992-2021
    No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-one years of Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
    Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R
    Senate D R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
    House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R



    See also[edit]

    Footnotes[edit]

    1. ↑ RealClearPolitics, "Arizona Senate - Republican Primary," accessed August 9, 2018
    2. ↑ FEC, "Independent Expenditures in U.S. Senate–Arizona," accessed July 12, 2018
    3. ↑ Politico, "Republicans struggling to hang on to Jeff Flake’s seat," July 2, 2018
    4. ↑ Politico, "McConnell: Cocaine tweet ‘softened my image,'" May 24, 2018
    5. ↑ AZ Central, "Congress: Rep. McSally shifts support to stricter immigration bill," May 11, 2018
    6. ↑ The Washington Post, "In Arizona, a former Trump critic moves right on immigration. Is she too far right?" July 7, 2018
    7. ↑ Washington Examiner, "Ignore the open-border establishment — President Trump is right on immigration," June 25, 2018
    8. ↑ Grabien, "McSally: Trump’s Muslim Ban Goes ‘Against Everything that We Believe in as a Party,'" accessed August 9, 2018
    9. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump," accessed July 12, 2018
    10. ↑ Sherrif Joe for America, "Home," accessed August 9, 2018
    11. ↑ Washington Examiner, "Joe Arpaio running for Senate in Arizona," January 9, 2018
    12. ↑ ABC News, "Trump pardons controversial former Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio," August 26, 2017
    13. ↑ The Republic, "Political handicappers are downgrading GOP chances of holding Sen. Jeff Flake's seat," August 27, 2017
    14. ↑ The Hill, "The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2018," April 11, 2018
    15. ↑ Maricopa County Sheriff's Office, "Sheriff Arpaio - Biography," accessed October 10, 2016
    16. ↑ 16.0 16.1 Washington Examiner, "Joe Arpaio running for Senate in Arizona," January 9, 2018
    17. ↑ U.S. Representative Martha McSally, "Biography," accessed January 26, 2018
    18. ↑ U.S. Representative Martha McSally, "Committees and Caucuses," accessed January 26, 2018
    19. ↑ The Hill, "McSally announces bid for Arizona Senate seat," January 12, 2018
    20. ↑ YouTube, "Martha McSally - Deploy," January 23, 2018
    21. ↑ Associated Press, "Kelli Ward Senate run: Arizona senator seeking McCain's US Senate seat to step down," December 15, 2015
    22. ↑ Kelli PAC, "About Kelli," accessed March 14, 2018
    23. ↑ CNN, "Who is Kelli Ward, Jeff Flake's GOP primary challenger Trump referenced by name?" August 22, 2017
    24. ↑ Kelli Ward for Senate, "Issues," accessed March 14, 2018
    25. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
    26. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
    27. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
    28. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
    29. ↑ AZ Central, "Paul Gosar endorses Kelli Ward for Senate, attacks Martha McSally's GOP credentials," July 17, 2018
    30. ↑ AZ Central, "Immigration hard-liner Steve King endorses Kelli Ward in Arizona's U.S. Senate race," January 19, 2018
    31. ↑ USA Today, "Bannon-backed Kelli Ward gets Senate endorsement for Arizona seat from Sen. Rand Paul," November 1, 2017
    32. ↑ Dr. Kelli Ward for Senate, "U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher endorses Dr. Kelli Ward for United States Senate," January 23, 2018
    33. ↑ AZ Central, "Bannon endorses Ward, signaling Trump supporters have settled on a challenger to Flake," October 17, 2017
    34. ↑ AZ Central, "Steve Bannon who? Kelli Ward seems to deny endorsement in CNN interview," January 11, 2018
    35. ↑ When asked about the endorsement following reports that Bannon criticized members of the Trump administration, Ward said, "[H]e was never part of my campaign. He was never an adviser. I mean, he's not somebody that I'd reach out and talk to in any way, shape or form. So it's funny that you and especially the establishment would love to tie me to Steve Bannon."
    36. ↑ NBC News, "Brewer endorses McSally in AZ-SEN," May 8, 2018
    37. ↑ Maggie's List, "Maggie's List Proudly Endorses Martha McSally for U.S Senate," January 12, 2018
    38. ↑ Winning for Women, "Winning For Women Endorses Martha McSally for U.S. Senate in First Round of Candidate Endorsements," February 1, 2018
    39. ↑ McClatchy DC, "Pro-Trump group endorses in key Senate primaries," October 16, 2017
    40. ↑ Gun Owners of America, "We Need a Fighter in the US Senate," November 2, 2017
    41. ↑ 41.0 41.1 41.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
    42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.3 AZ Central, "Congress: Rep. McSally shifts support to stricter immigration bill," May 11, 2018
    43. ↑ Kelli Ward for Senate, "Trump expected to announce end to Obama-era DACA, official says," August 31, 2017
    44. ↑ ABC News, "Sheriff Joe Arpaio details his plan for the Dreamers: Deport them all," January 26, 2018
    45. ↑ Martha McSally, "McSally Statement on Passage of FY18 Fund Bill," March 22, 2018
    46. ↑ Kelli Ward for U.S. Senate, "Statement from Dr. Kelli Ward on Rep. Martha McSally's 'YES' vote on the FY2018 omnibus spending bill," March 22, 2018
    47. ↑ 47.0 47.1 KGUN9, "Arizona Senate candidates respond to March For Our Lives and national gun debate," March 24, 2018
    48. ↑ Advertising Analytics, "The Real Deal," accessed August 17, 2018
    49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 49.2 AZ Central, "Arpaio: Ward's campaign suggested I quit Senate race for pro-Trump gig," May 22, 2018
    50. ↑ The Washington Post, "In Arizona, Joe Arpaio’s Senate bid tests the strength of Trumpism," March 2, 2018
    51. ↑ ABC News, "Trump pardons controversial former Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio," August 26, 2017
    52. ↑ Arizona Daily Star, "McSally opens up on her relationship with Trump in new interview," June 1, 2018
    53. ↑ Arizona's Family, "McSally doubles down on Trump in GOP primary," August 7, 2018
    54. ↑ Tucson Sentinel, "Martha McSally goes all-in with Trump as she launches Senate run," January 12, 2018
    55. ↑ AZ Central, "Kelli Ward broadcasts photo with Donald Trump even though he asked her not to, source says," July 27, 2018
    56. ↑ AZ Central, "Martha McSally campaign in line for $5 million from GOP establishment," June 29, 2018
    57. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Sherrod Brown ties opponent to convicted businessman accused of straw donations," August 17, 2018
    58. ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1258749," accessed August 27, 2018
    59. ↑ TIME, "DSCC Runs Online Ads Against Martha McSally for Her Vote On Internet Privacy," March 28, 2018
    60. ↑ Politico, "Megadonor boosts Ward in Arizona Senate race," July 16, 2018
    61. ↑ Politico, "McConnell allies jump into critical Senate primary," June 15, 2018
    62. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: GOP narrowly leads in ancestrally red Ohio seat in special election," August 8, 2018
    63. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Poll finds GOP Oklahoma governor's historic unpopularity giving Democrats an opening," August 6, 2018
    64. ↑ Politico, "White House squeezes Jeff Flake," July 17, 2017
    65. ↑ Document Cloud, "Activists and Former Campaign Staff Apologize for Propping Up Kelli Ward," accessed October 31, 2017
    66. ↑ Politico, "Flake retiring after 2018," October 24, 2017
    67. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
    68. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
    69. ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
    70. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018


    Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
    Senators
    Mark Kelly (D)
    Kyrsten Sinema (D)
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    District 1
    District 2
    District 3
    District 4
    District 5
    District 6
    District 7
    District 8
    District 9
    Democratic Party (7)
    Republican Party (4)


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