United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2018

From Ballotpedia - Reading time: 29 min


2020
2014
U.S. Senate, New Jersey
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Bob Menendez (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in New Jersey
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, New Jersey
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th
New Jersey elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) defeated former biopharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin (R) and six others in the general election on November 6, 2018, for New Jersey's Class 1 Senate seat.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Menendez had held the seat since 2006 when he defeated Thomas Kean Jr. (R) by nine percentage points. Menendez won re-election in 2012 by a margin of 18 percentage points. New Jersey hadn't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1972. Several media and ratings outlets, however, suggested that the 2018 Senate race could be competitive.[1][2] NBC News added Menendez's seat to their "Top 10 Senate takeovers list" on October 3, 2018, and on October 4, 2018, The Cook Political Report changed its rating of the race from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.[3][4]

Third party and independent candidates included Tricia Flanagan (New Day NJ), Madelyn Hoffman (Green Party), Kevin Kimple (Make it Simple), Natalie Lynn Rivera (For the People), Murray Sabrin (L), and Hank Schroeder (Economic Growth).


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results[edit]

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election
General election for U.S. Senate New Jersey

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. Senate New Jersey on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/bobmenendez.jpg

Bob Menendez (D)
 
54.0
 
1,711,654

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/BobHugin.jpg

Bob Hugin (R)
 
42.8
 
1,357,355

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Madelyn-Hoffman.JPG

Madelyn Hoffman (G)
 
0.8
 
25,150

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Murray_Sabrin.jpg

Murray Sabrin (L)
 
0.7
 
21,212

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Natalie-Rivera-e1556213891448.jpg

Natalie Rivera (For the People Party)
 
0.6
 
19,897

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/TriciaFlanagan.JPG

Tricia Flanagan (New Day NJ Party)
 
0.5
 
16,101

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KevinKimpleHeadshot.JPG

Kevin Kimple (Make it Simple Party) Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
9,087

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Hank_Schroeder.jpg

Hank Schroeder (Economic Growth Party)
 
0.3
 
8,854

Total votes: 3,169,310
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate New Jersey

Incumbent Bob Menendez defeated Lisa McCormick in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate New Jersey on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/bobmenendez.jpg

Bob Menendez
 
62.3
 
262,477

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Lisa_McCormick.PNG

Lisa McCormick
 
37.7
 
158,998

Total votes: 421,475

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Jersey

Bob Hugin defeated Brian Goldberg in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Jersey on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/BobHugin.jpg

Bob Hugin
 
75.1
 
168,052

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Brian_Goldberg.jpg

Brian Goldberg
 
24.9
 
55,624

Total votes: 223,676

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


Candidate profiles[edit]

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Bob Hugin, pharmaceutical executive
BobHugin.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Hugin earned a bachelor's degree from Princeton University. After graduation, he joined the United States Marine Corps where he served as an active duty infantry officer from 1976 to 1983 and continued to serve as a Reserve Officer from 1983 to 1990. Hugin earned an MBA from the Darden School of Graduate Business Administration at the University of Virginia. Hugin was an at-large delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention from New Jersey.[5] He acted as Chairman and CEO of the Celgene Corporation at the time of his 2018 Senate bid.[6]

Key messages
  • Hugin campaigned as a “different kind of Republican,” saying he supports same-sex marriage and equal pay for women in TV ads. He also expressed willingness to oppose President Donald Trump (R) on certain issues, saying, "I support President Trump in every way when he’s something that’s good for New Jersey, and I’ll fight anybody doing anything that’s not good for New Jersey."[7]
  • Hugin's campaign website called New Jersey 50 out of 50 states in terms of federal investment dollars. Hugin promised to work across party lines to get funding for various programs and projects including transportation infrastructure, higher education, and healthcare.[8]
  • Hugin highlighted his work as a biopharmaceutical executive as experience that would aid him in reducing costs and inequality of outcomes in healthcare. He advocated for performance-based payment systems and insurance coverage protections for people with pre-existing conditions.



Robert Menendez, U.S. Senator
Bobmenendez.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Senate (Assumed office: 2007); New Jersey's 13th Congressional District (1993-2006}; New Jersey State Senate District 33 (1991-1993); New Jersey General Assembly District 33 (1988-1991); Mayor of Union City (1987-1991)

Biography: Menendez earned a B.A. in political science from Saint Peter's College and a Jurisdoctor from Rutgers Law. Prior to his election to the U.S. Senate, Menendez served in the U.S. House of Representatives. He was first appointed to the Senate in 2006.[9][10]

Key messages
  • Menendez highlighted his work on the Senate Finance Committee dealing the healthcare policy and ran on his defense of the Affordable Care Act.[11]
  • Menendez made his upbringing a central theme of the campaign, filming his first TV ad in his childhood neighborhood in Union City, and using his personal reliance on public schools and college tuition grants as evidence for his argument for increased funding for education.[11]
  • Menendez advocated for increased infrastructure spending, publicly funded job training, and tax policy that penalizes outsourcing as strategies to increase employment in New Jersey.[11]


Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in New Jersey
Poll Poll sponsor Menendez HuginSabrinUnsure/Someone else/Wouldn't VoteMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University
(October 29 - November 4, 2018)
N/A 55%40%0%5%+/-4.01,115
Stockton University
(October 25-31, 2018)
N/A 51%39%3%6%+/-4.0598
Vox Populi Polling
(October 27-29, 2018)
N/A 54%46%0%0%+/-3.4814
Emerson College
(October 24-26, 2018)
N/A 47%42%0%7%+/-4.0659
Rutgers University
(October 12-19, 2018)
N/A 51%46%0%4%+/-5.1496
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org



PredictIt Prices[edit]

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance[edit]

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Bob Hugin Republican Party $39,236,111 $39,113,138 $122,973 As of December 31, 2018
Bob Menendez Democratic Party $9,579,191 $11,003,884 $219,432 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," .

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending[edit]

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[12][13][14]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) made a coordinated ad buy with Menendez's campaign, spending at least $117,000 for ads between August 27 and September 9, according to Politico.[15] On October 5, Politico reported that the DSCC had added an additional $520,305 in new coordinated television reservations with Menendez's campaign.[16]
  • Integrity NJ
    • The group launched a $2 million television ad campaign opposing Menendez on October 26, 2018.[17]
    • The super PAC had spent $3.39 million to oppose Menendez as of September 26, 2018.[18]
  • The Leadership Alliance PAC had spent $620,000 on ads opposing Hugin as of August 23, 2018.[19]
  • The Patients For Affordable Drugs PAC spent $2,810,381 to oppose Hugin as of a September 22 filing.[20]
  • Senate Majority PAC
    • The group announced a $2.8 million television ad campaign opposing Hugin on October 25, 2018.[21]
    • The group announced a $3 million television ad campaign opposing Hugin on October 16, 2018.[22]


Race ratings[edit]

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[23]
  • Tossup ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[24][25][26]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in New Jersey, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.


Noteworthy endorsements[edit]

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes links to endorsement lists published on campaign websites, if available. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.


Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement Menendez (D) Hugin (R)
Newspapers and editorials
Burlington County Times[27]
The Philadelphia Inquirer[28]
The Star-Ledger[29]
Elected officials
Former Bayonne Mayor Richard Rutkowski (D)[30]

Timeline[edit]

  • November 5, 2018: A Quinnipiac University poll found Menendez leading Hugin 55-40. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points.
  • November 2, 2018: A Stockton University poll found Menendez leading Hugin 51-39. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points.
  • October 30, 2018: A Vox Populi Polling poll found Menendez leading Hugin 54-46. The poll reported a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
  • October 28, 2018: An Emerson College poll found Menendez apparently leading Hugin with 47 percent support to Hugin's 42 percent. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points.
  • October 28, 2018: The Star-Ledger endorsed Menendez.
  • October 26, 2018: Integrity NJ launched a $2 million television ad campaign opposing Menendez.
  • October 26, 2018: The Burlington County Times endorsed Hugin.
  • October 25, 2018: The Senate Majority PAC announced a $2.8 million ad buy opposing Hugin.
  • October 24, 2018: Menendez and Hugin met for a debate in Newark.
  • October 24, 2018: A Rutgers University poll found Menendez about even with Hugin, with 51 percent support to Hugin's 46 percent. The poll reported a margin of error of 5.1 percentage points.
  • October 21, 2018: The Philadelphia Inquirer endorsed Menendez.
  • October 18, 2018: A Monmouth University poll found Menendez leading Hugin 49-40. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
  • October 18, 2018: A National Research poll commissioned by the Hugin campaign found Menendez about even with Hugin, with 42 percent support to Hugin's 40 percent. The poll did not report a margin of error.
  • October 17, 2018: A Quinnipiac University poll found Menendez apparently leading Hugin with 51 percent support to Hugin's 44 percent. The poll reported a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
  • October 16, 2018: The Senate Majority PAC announced a $3 million television buy opposed to Hugin.
  • October 15, 2018: Former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (D) headlined a fundraiser on Menendez's behalf in Jersey City.
  • October 7, 2018: A CBS News/YouGov poll showed Menendez leading Hugin 49 to 39 percent. The margin of error was 3.6 percentage points.
  • October 5, 2018: Politico reported that the DSCC added $520,305 in spending to support Menendez.
  • October 3, 2018: A Quinnipiac University poll showed Menendez leading Hugin 53 to 42 percent among 1,058 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.1 percentage points.
  • October 1, 2018: A Stockton University poll showed Menendez about even with Hugin, with 45 percent support to Hugin's 43 percent. The margin of error was 4.3 percentage points.
  • September 26, 2018:The Integrity NJ super PAC announced $834,000 in spending to oppose Menendez.
  • September 25, 2018: New York Times reporter Nick Corasaniti shared a photo of a fundraiser invitation on social media showing that Hillary Clinton was scheduled to appear in Jersey City on October 15, 2018, to raise funds for Menendez's campaign.[31]

Campaign ads[edit]

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Bob Hugin[edit]

Support[edit]

"Ryan" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released July 25, 2018
"Honoring our Nation's Heroes" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released July 3, 2018
"A Different Kind" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released June 14, 2018

Oppose[edit]

"Deciding Vote" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 25, 2018
"Willing" - Menendez campaign ad, released October 17, 2018
"Wrong Prescription" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 16, 2018
"Send" - Patients For Affordable Drugs Action ad, released October 8, 2018
"Side Effects" - Menendez alliance ad, released September 12, 2018
"Get Rich" - Leadership alliance ad, released August 10, 2018
"The Guy Who Made A Killing" - Patients For Affordable Drugs Action ad, released July 12, 2018

Democratic PartyBob Menendez[edit]

Support[edit]

"Mr. Wilson" - Bob Menendez campaign ad, released October 17, 2018
"Court" - Bob Menendez campaign ad, released October 2, 2018
"Stopped" - Bob Menendez campaign ad, released October 2, 2018
"Never Forgot" - Bob Menendez campaign ad, released August 22, 2018

Oppose[edit]

"Her" - Hugin campaign ad, released October 25, 2018
"Estelle" - Hugin campaign ad, released October 5, 2018
"Nikki" - Hugin campaign ad, released October 5, 2018
"Friendship 30" - Integrity NJ ad, released August 22, 2018
"Dead Last" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released August 9, 2018
"Taxes" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released August 9, 2018
"Stupid" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released August 9, 2018
"Screwed" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released August 9, 2018
"Two Bobs" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released July 18, 2018
"Guilty" - Bob Hugin campaign ad, released May 1, 2018

Noteworthy events[edit]

Hillary Clinton fundraiser[edit]

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D) headlined a fundraiser for Menendez in Jersey City on October 15, 2018. Proceeds from the event also benefitted Menendez's leadership PAC and the state Democratic committee.[32]

Brett Kavanaugh confirmation vote[edit]

See also: Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview

On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty Senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.[33]

Menendez voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation on October 6, 2018. Menendez released a statement after the vote, saying, “I’m frustrated that our nation's progress towards women’s rights, civil rights, LGBTQ equality and so much more could be stalled by a Justice that far right interest groups have groomed to do their bidding."[34]

Hugin said he would have voted to confirm Kavanaugh. Ten days before the vote Hugin said, "I think he's clearly an incredibly qualified, talented jurist... but I want to watch the hearings tomorrow." "I'll make a judgment after that," he said. On October 6, 2018, Hugin tweeted, "Based on everything I know now, I would support Judge Kavanaugh as Senator."[35][36]

Debates and forums[edit]

  • Menendez and Hugin met for a debate in Newark on October 24, 2018.[37] Click here for footage of the debate.

Campaign themes[edit]

These were the policy positions stated in interviews or listed on the candidates' websites, if available.

Democratic Party Bob Menendez[edit]

Menendez's campaign website stated the following:

Education

As a product of public schools, federal loans and grants to become the first in his family with a college education, Bob understands how important it is to give every kid the chance at a first rate education. Bob will never stop fighting to ensure every child has access to early education, opportunities to attend quality public schools, and affordable secondary education. He also knows that we can’t reach these goals until we support schools, teachers, and parents to encourage young people to build a the skill-set needed to excel in the 21st century economy.

Environment & Climate Change

Bob has consistently fought for dramatic action to reduce the effects of climate change. He is a champion for protecting New Jersey’s beaches, coastal communities and green spaces. Bob is also focused on making New Jersey a leader in responsible renewable energy development to lower our dependence on fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reinvigorate our workforce in the 21st century global economy.

Creating Good Paying American Jobs

Bob’s number one priority is creating more good paying jobs for the people of New Jersey. For too long through the economy has benefited the very top at the expense of the middle class. Bob is fighting for economic policies that increase wages, empower the middle class and small businesses, and foster social mobility. That means investments in infrastructure to put construction workers back to work, job training to make sure New Jersey has a skilled workforce for the jobs of the future, and tax policy that brings jobs back to American and penalizes outsourcing.

Health Care

Bob has always been committed to fighting for high-quality, affordable health care for all. As a senior member of the Senate Finance Committee that sets national health policy, Bob has championed legislation to help families meet the challenges of autism, fought to protect a woman’s right to quality health services, advocated for investments in research funding for New Jersey’s hospitals and universities, and has been a champion for community health centers that provide care to underserved communities. Bob stood up against the Republicans’ misguided attempts to strip health care from millions of Americans, and said NO to a plan that hiked premiums for middle-class and working people, gutted the guarantee of essential benefits, disproportionately hurt women and the disabled and forced the most vulnerable to pay for a massive tax cut for the richest among us. Bob will continue fighting to defend and improve the Affordable Care Act while building on its success by working across the aisle so that millions of Americans can receive affordable coverage.


[38]

Bob Menendez for U.S. Senate[39]

Republican Party Bob Hugin[edit]

Hugin's campaign website stated the following:

Standing with Israel

Bob considers Israel among our most valued allies and supports officially recognizing Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel, as well as the Administration’s recent decision to relocate the United States Embassy to the city. On a recent trip to Israel, Bob had the chance to meet with members of the Knesset as well as former Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren to discuss ways to strengthen the relationship between our two nations. He supports a continued Israeli-Palestinian peace process that results in a two-state solution where the Palestinians unambiguously recognize Israel’s right to exist. Bob considers Israel a beacon of democracy and innovation in the Middle East and throughout the world, and as Senator he will seek to strengthen our commitment to Israel and the Israeli people.

Energy Independence

Bob is a strong proponent of American energy independence and supports a multi-faceted energy strategy that includes more domestic production of oil and natural gas and continued support of nuclear power, which currently provides nearly 40% of New Jersey’s net electricity generation. He also backs smart investment in renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Bob opposes all drilling off the east coast. Period. It’s bad for the environment and the risk is far too high for our successful fishing and tourism industries.

Immigration Reform

Bob agrees with former President Ronald Reagan, who said: “A nation that cannot control its borders is not a nation.” We need to fix our immigration system in a comprehensive and compassionate way. That means securing our borders, opposing so-called Sanctuary Cities, and supporting law enforcement as they keep our communities safe. It also means creating a path to citizenship for Dreamers and immigrants who may not have come here legally, but are building productive and constructive lives in America. We are a nation of immigrants. A nation that is made better, fuller, and stronger by the diversity and talents of our people.

Protecting the Homeland

As a former United States Marine, Bob strongly supports putting in place measures that protect America from foreign terrorists who seek to do us harm. Bob will work with the President and leaders in both parties to enhance our vetting process and reform our visa and green card programs to ensure that our homeland is secure and our citizens are safe.

National Defense

Bob spent 14 years in the United States Marine Corps, seven on active duty and seven in the reserves. In the Senate, he will be a proponent of increased defense spending to ensure a highly-prepared, trained, and effective armed forces. Bob will also fight to bring additional key missions to Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, Picatinny Arsenal, and Naval Weapons Station Earle, as well as the Air National Guard 177th Fighter Wing at Atlantic City Airport and the US Coast Guard Training Center in Cape May. Bob will vigorously oppose any future Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) that targets New Jersey’s military installations, which are imperative to our national defense and a major source of jobs and economic investment throughout New Jersey.

Tax Relief

While the new tax reform bill will deliver real relief for many New Jerseyans and help spur economic growth and job creation, the fact remains that New Jersey is a high-tax state unfairly impacted by the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. Bob will fight to eliminate the cap, and make the individual tax cuts permanent, so New Jersey taxpayers can realize meaningful long-term relief.

Health Care Reform

As a board member of one of the country’s most forward-looking hospital and integrated clinical care systems and the leader of a major biotech company, Bob will be a driving force in the Senate to move us past the divisive partisan fights on health care. As Senator, Bob will promote policies that actually fix the system for patients and doctors, driving down costs, increasing consumer choice, and encouraging innovation.

Bob believes we need to address the increasing inequality of health outcomes and the social and economic issues impacting health care in our communities, while ensuring that high-quality care is accessible, affordable and delivers better value to all Americans. Bob will push for reforms that stop the system from discriminating against the sickest Americans and advocate for making payment systems based on value, performance and evidence-based approaches that provide transparency on cost and patient outcomes.

For the last two decades, Bob’s leadership has resulted in countless breakthroughs in treatment and cures. He will use this expertise to promote policies that incentivize bold experimentation and innovation that can find cures and lower costs.

Getting New Jersey’s Fair Share

New Jersey is currently 50 out of 50 – dead last – in the amount of federal investment we get back from Washington for the tax dollars we send there each year. The new SALT cap only makes it worse. It’s unacceptable. Bob will work across party lines and use his decades of private sector business experience to secure expanded investment in New Jersey’s priorities like transportation infrastructure, our military bases, higher education, healthcare, and beach replenishment.

Environment

Bob is an avid boater, fisherman, and conservationist who believes that climate change is real and that humans play a role in it. Bob will work with people in both parties to safeguard our air and water, and encourage the President to enter into agreements that protect our environment, while ensuring they are fair deals for American taxpayers and businesses. Additionally, he will support policies that encourage technological innovation and growing our renewable energy sector so that America will be a leader in clean, affordable energy.

Jobs & the Economy

As someone who has grown a business and helped to create thousands of good paying jobs right here in New Jersey, Bob understands the need for innovative policies that encourage economic growth and make our state more attractive for employees and employers. New Jersey is a high cost state that is becoming increasingly unaffordable. Millennials – those aged 18 to 34 – are leaving our state at the highest rate in the country, decimating our state’s future workforce.

Seniors and high earners are leaving New Jersey at a rapid pace, taking with them the capital we need to create new enterprises and the tax revenue we need to support critical government functions and charitable giving. The future Bob envisions for New Jersey is a bright one where our economy is growing, businesses small and large are thriving, and people have good paying jobs to support themselves and their families. He will use his decades of experience as a job creator to ensure that New Jersey’s economy is a robust 21st century economy where everyone has the opportunity to succeed and pursue their dreams.

Restoring Honesty & Integrity to Government

Incumbent Senator Bob Menendez has been severely admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee – a rare and bipartisan action taken by the Committee – for violating federal law and abusing his position. His indictment on federal bribery and corruption charges for taking lavish gifts from his convicted felon “best friend” was an embarrassment to New Jersey and underscores the need for raising the ethical standards of our public servants and strengthening anti-corruption laws in our federal government.

Bob Hugin believes that Congress should be held to a higher standard. As Senator, he will not accept any gifts from anyone, nor will he accept a taxpayer-funded salary. He has also committed to putting all of his assets in a blind trust, which will be restricted to investment and mutual funds. Neither he nor the Trustee will have access to any information on any specific investments being made.

Bob will work with non-partisan, good government watchdogs, and honest people on both sides of the aisle to close the loopholes in current law and act to restore faith and trust in our government by making sure corrupt politicians are held accountable and are forced to live by the same laws the rest of us do.

Infrastructure

New Jersey’s infrastructure is in dire shape. It’s damaging our economy and our quality of life. In spite of all the federal tax dollars New Jerseyans send to Washington, we are 50 out of 50 in investment back. That means we’re helping support infrastructure in other states while our roads and bridges are crumbling. Bob will fight for projects like Gateway, which includes the Portal North Bridge and Hudson Tunnel projects serving New Jersey, New York City and the entire Northeast Corridor.

Bob has called on President Trump and leaders in both parties to stop the partisan finger-pointing and move these important priorities forward. Bob will be New Jersey’s champion in Washington fighting to make sure our federal tax dollars are invested here to modernize our infrastructure, which will improve our economy, make our roads, bridges and tunnels safer, and create good-paying, high-skill jobs.

Term Limits

There is something wrong when Congress has approval ratings in the teens, but Senate and House incumbents are re-elected upwards of 90% of the time. That is why as Senator, Bob will support and sponsor legislation to pass term limits for both Members of the House of Representatives and the United States Senate. Gerrymandering and the powers of incumbency have protected ineffective career politicians for too long. In an era of partisan gridlock, Bob believes term limits will encourage more bipartisan cooperation and compromise in Washington by removing the pressure of re-election for a significant number of lawmakers in either party each year.

Cuba

Bob believes the previous Administration’s unilateral policy shift gave the Castro regime an economic lifeline, while doing little to improve the everyday lives of the Cuban people – for whom Bob has great admiration and respect. Bob would do everything in his power to gain extradition of escaped convict Joanne Chesimard, who was the first woman ever named to the FBI’s Most Wanted Terrorist list for the cold-blooded murder of New Jersey State Trooper Werner Foerster during a routine traffic stop in 1973.

North Korea

As a Marine, Bob was deployed to South Korea and performed joint military training exercises with the South Korean military called Team Spirit. That experience and the fact that both of his sons are in the Marine Corps today, gives Bob a deep appreciation of the current situation on the Korean peninsula. The Clinton, Bush, and Obama Administrations all failed when it came to preventing North Korea from building a nuclear arsenal capable of striking our allies and even the United States, which is why Bob supports recent negotiation efforts to achieve denuclearization, peace in the region and a better life for the North Korean people. However, Bob believes that any deal made with North Korea must hold the regime accountable, and their compliance with all terms of the agreement must be continually verified. [38]

Bob Hugin for U.S. Senate[40]


Social media[edit]

Twitter accounts[edit]

Facebook accounts[edit]

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Republican Party Bob Hugin Facebook

Democratic Party Bob Menendez Facebook

2016 Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties and Congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties

New Jersey features two congressional districts that intersect with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.

The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. Heading into the 2018 elections, the partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties was more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that had at least one Pivot County, 63 percent were held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[41]


Election history[edit]

2014[edit]

U.S. Senate, New Jersey General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngCory Booker Incumbent 55.8% 1,043,866
     Republican Jeff Bell 42.3% 791,297
     Libertarian Joe Baratelli 0.9% 16,721
     Independent Jeff Boss 0.2% 4,513
     Independent Antonio N. Sabas 0.2% 3,544
     Democratic-Republican Eugene Lavergne 0.2% 3,890
     Economic Growth Hank Schroeder 0.3% 5,704
Total Votes 1,869,535
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections

2012[edit]

U.S. Senate, New Jersey, General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngRobert Menendez Incumbent 58.9% 1,987,680
     Republican Joe Kyrillos 39.4% 1,329,534
     Libertarian Kenneth R. Kaplan 0.5% 16,803
     Green Ken Wolski 0.5% 15,801
     Jersey Strong Independents Gwen Diakos 0.3% 9,359
     Totally Independent Candidate J. David Dranikoff 0.1% 3,834
     America First Inder "Andy" Soni 0.1% 3,593
     Responsibility Fairness Integrity Robert "Turk" Turkavage 0.1% 3,532
     Socialist Party USA Gregory Pason 0.1% 2,249
     No Slogan Eugene Martin Lavergne 0.1% 2,198
     Reform Nation Daryl Mikell Brooks 0.1% 2,066
Total Votes 3,376,649
Source: New Jersey Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Wave election analysis[edit]

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year President Party Election type Senate seats change Senate majority[42]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -13 D (flipped)
1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -12 D
1946 Truman D First midterm -10 R (flipped)
1980 Carter D Presidential -9 R (flipped)
2014 Obama D Second midterm -9 R (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -8 D
2008 George W. Bush D Presidential -8 D
1926 Coolidge R First midterm[43] -7 R
1930 Hoover R First midterm -7 R
1986 Reagan R Second midterm -7 D (flipped)

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New Jersey heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

State executives[edit]

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 14 state executive positions. The other nine positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of New Jersey was Democrat Phil Murphy.

State legislature[edit]

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature. They had a 54-26 majority in the state Assembly and a 25-15 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

  • New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state Assembly.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: New Jersey elections, 2018

New Jersey held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics[edit]

Demographic data for New Jersey
 New JerseyU.S.
Total population:8,935,421316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):7,3543,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:68.3%73.6%
Black/African American:13.5%12.6%
Asian:9%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:19%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:36.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$72,093$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Jersey.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New Jersey had a population of approximately 9 million people, and its three largest cities were New Jersey (pop. est. 283,000), Jersey City (pop. est. 265,000), and Paterson (pop. est. 147,000).[44][45]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Jersey every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New Jersey 2000-2016[46]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.5% Republican Party Donald Trump 41.4% 14.1%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 58.4% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.6% 17.8%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.2% Republican Party John McCain 41.7% 15.5%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 52.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 46.2% 6.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 56.1% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.3% 15.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014[47] Democratic Party Cory Booker 55.8% Republican Party Jeff Bell 42.3% 13.5%
2012[48] Democratic Party Bob Menendez 58.9% Republican Party Joseph Kyrillos 39.4% 19.5%
2008[49] Democratic Party Frank Lautenberg 56.0% Republican Party Dick Zimmer 42.0% 14.0%
2006[50] Democratic Party Bob Menendez 53.3% Republican Party Thomas Kean Jr. 44.3% 9.0%
2002[51] Democratic Party Frank Lautenberg 53.9% Republican Party Doug Forrester 44.0% 9.9%
2000[52] Democratic Party Jon Corzine 50.1% Republican Party Bob Franks 47.1% 3.0%

Gubernatorial elections, 2001-2017[edit]

This chart shows the results of the five gubernatorial elections held between 2001 and 2017. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Jersey, and, unlike most states, they take place in odd years.

Election results (Governor), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2017[53] Democratic Party Phil Murphy 56.0% Republican Party Kim Guadagno 41.9% 14.1%
2013[54] Republican Party Chris Christie 60.3% Democratic Party Barbara Buono 38.2% 22.1%
2009[55] Republican Party Chris Christie 48.5% Democratic Party Jon Corzine 44.9% 3.6%
2005[56] Democratic Party Jon Corzine 53.5% Republican Party Doug Forrester 43.0% 10.5%
2001[57] Democratic Party Jim McGreevey 56.4% Republican Party Bret Schundler 41.7% 14.7%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Jersey in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New Jersey 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016[58] Republican Party 5 41.7% Democratic Party 7 58.3% D+2
2014[47] Republican Party 6 50.0% Democratic Party 6 50.0% Even
2012[48] Republican Party 6 50.0% Democratic Party 6 50.0% Even
2010[59] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2008[49] Republican Party 5 38.5% Democratic Party 8 61.5% D+3
2006[50] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2004[60] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2002[51] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2000[52] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2018[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New Jersey Party Control: 1992-2021
Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eight years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Governor D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


,

See also[edit]


Footnotes[edit]

  1. Cnn, "CNN Key Races: A blue state complicates Democrats' Senate math," October 2, 2018
  2. Bloomberg, "Democrats Find Themselves on Defense in New Jersey," October 1, 2018
  3. NBC News, "Here's how the Brett Kavanaugh fight has shifted key Senate races," October 3, 2018
  4. Cook Political Report, "2018 Senate Race Ratings," Oct 4, 2018
  5. nj.com, "Trump's N.J. delegate slate includes Chris Christie and son," accessed June 28, 2016
  6. Bob Hugin for Senate, "About," accessed August 16, 2018
  7. New Jersey Globe, "Hugin Touts Support for Trump, September 8, 2018
  8. Bob Hugin for Senate, "Issues," accessed September 10, 2018
  9. Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "MENENDEZ, Robert, (1954 - )," accessed July 1, 2013
  10. Senate.gov, "Bob Menendez," accessed August 16, 2018
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 Menendez for NJ, "Issues," accessed September 10, 2018
  12. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  13. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  14. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  15. Politico, "What to Watch in Tonight's Primaries," August 28, 2018
  16. Politico, "Morning Score," October 5, 2018
  17. New Jersey Globe, "Christie-tied super PAC on air with $2 million ad," October 26, 2018
  18. FEC, Independent Expenditures: Integrity NJ," accessed September 29, 2018
  19. FEC, "Independent Expenditures: Leadership Alliance," accessed August 23, 2018
  20. FEC, "Independent Expenditures," accessed September 26, 2018
  21. Politico, "National Democrats make another big ad buy for Menendez," October 25, 2018
  22. The Hill, "Senate Dems race to save Menendez in deep-blue New Jersey," October 16, 2018
  23. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  24. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  25. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  26. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  27. Burlington County Times, "Editorial Board: We endorse Bob Hugin for U.S. Senate," October 26, 2018
  28. The Inquirer, "Reluctantly, we endorse Sen. Bob Menendez for N.J. Senate - Endorsement," October 21, 2018
  29. NJ.com, "Choke it down, and vote for Menendez - Editorial," October 28, 2018
  30. Hudson County View, "A former Bayonne mayor, a Democrat, endorses GOP U.S. Senate challenger Hugin," October 10, 2018
  31. The Hill, "Clinton to hold fundraiser for Menendez in NJ next month," September 25, 2018
  32. NJ.com, "Hillary Clinton stumps for Menendez at Jersey City fundraiser," October 15, 2018
  33. New York Times, "Kavanaugh Is Sworn In After Close Confirmation Vote in Senate Video," October 6, 2018
  34. U.S. Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, "Press Releases," October 6, 2018
  35. NJ.com, "Menendez challenger Hugin backs Kavanaugh for U.S. Supreme Court," October 6, 2018
  36. NJ.com, "N.J. Republican Senate nominee Hugin hasn't made up mind on Kavanaugh," September 26, 2018
  37. NJ.com, "'Corrupt' Menendez just faced 'Trump clone' Hugin in their only debate. Here's how it went.," October 24, 2018
  38. 38.0 38.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  39. "Issues," accessed August 16, 2018
  40. "Issues," accessed August 16, 2018
  41. The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  42. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  43. Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
  44. United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts New Jersey," March 27, 2018
  45. World Population Review, "Population of Cities in New Jersey (2018)," accessed March 27, 2018
  46. US Election Atlas, "United States Presidential Election Results," accessed March 27, 2018
  47. 47.0 47.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2014 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  48. 48.0 48.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2012 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  49. 49.0 49.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2008 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  50. 50.0 50.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2006 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  51. 51.0 51.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2002 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  52. 52.0 52.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2000 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  53. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2017 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  54. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2013 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  55. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2009 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  56. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2005 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  57. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2001 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  58. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2016 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  59. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2010 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  60. New Jersey Secretary of State, "2004 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Democratic Party (12)
Republican Party (2)


Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Original source: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Jersey,_2018
Status: cached on November 18 2021 14:51:00
Encyclosphere.org EncycloReader is supported by the EncyclosphereKSF