← 2014
|
U.S. Senate, New Mexico |
---|
Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: March 13, 2018 |
Primary: June 5, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Martin Heinrich (Democrat) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in New Mexico |
Race ratings |
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd New Mexico elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Incumbent Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) defeated Mick Rich (R) and Gary Johnson (L) in the U.S. Senate election for New Mexico on November 6, 2018.
Heinrich and Rich were unopposed in the June 5, 2018, primaries. Johnson, who was governor of New Mexico as a Republican from 1995 to 2003, filed to run in the race as a Libertarian on August 14. The previous Libertarian candidate in the race, Aubrey Dunn, withdrew in July.[1][2]
Prior to the election, the race was rated Safe Democratic. Heinrich was first elected in 2012 with 51 percent of the vote, 5.7 percentage points ahead of his Republican opponent.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Incumbent Martin Heinrich defeated Mick Rich and Gary Johnson in the general election for U.S. Senate New Mexico on November 6, 2018.
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
||
✔ |
|
Martin Heinrich (D) |
54.1
|
376,998 |
|
Mick Rich (R) |
30.5
|
212,813 | |
|
Gary Johnson (L) |
15.4
|
107,201 |
Total votes: 697,012 (100.00% precincts reporting) |
||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Incumbent Martin Heinrich advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 5, 2018.
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
||
✔ |
|
Martin Heinrich |
100.0
|
152,145 |
Total votes: 152,145 | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Mick Rich advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 5, 2018.
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
||
✔ |
|
Mick Rich |
100.0
|
67,502 |
Total votes: 67,502 | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Aubrey Dunn advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. Senate New Mexico on June 5, 2018.
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
||
✔ |
|
Aubrey Dunn |
100.0
|
623 |
Total votes: 623 | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: U.S. Senate (Assumed office: 2013), U.S. House (2009-2013), Albuquerque City Council (2003-2007)
Biography: Heinrich received a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Missouri-Columbia. Before entering politics, he worked as a mechanical engineer at Kirtland Air Force Base. Heinrich was also an AmeriCorps fellow and executive director of the Cottonwood Gulch Foundation.
Party: Libertarian
Incumbent: No
Political office: Governor of New Mexico (1995-2003)
Biography: Gary Johnson started a construction company before entering politics. He served as governor of New Mexico as a Republican from 1995 to 2003. Johnson was the Libertarian Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016.[4]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: New Mexico Labor and Industrial Commission
Biography: Mick Rich worked as a civil engineer and founded Mick Rich Contractors in 1984. Rich became a member of the New Mexico Labor and Industrial Commission in 2013.[6]
U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, Heinrich (D) v. Johnson (L) v. Rich (R) | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll | Poll sponsor | Martin Heinrich | Gary Johnson | Mick Rich | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||
Research & Polling Inc. Oct. 26-Nov. 1, 2018 | Albuquerque Journal | 51% | 12% | 31% | 6% | +/-4.7 | 993 | ||||||||||||
Emerson College October 24-26, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 16% | 32% | 6% | +/-3.4 | 936 | ||||||||||||
Research & Polling Inc. September 7-13, 2018 | Albuquerque Journal | 47% | 16% | 26% | 0% | +/-3.1 | 966 | ||||||||||||
Emerson College August 17-18, 2018 | N/A | 39% | 21% | 11% | 30% | +/-4.6 | 500 | ||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 46.25% | 16.25% | 25% | 10.5% | +/-3.95 | 848.75 | |||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Martin Heinrich | Democratic Party | $6,377,070 | $7,263,558 | $654,974 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Mick Rich | Republican Party | $968,899 | $967,618 | $1,278 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," .
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[10][11][12]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[15][16][17]
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, 2018 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes links to endorsement lists published on campaign websites, if available. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.
Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available.
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.[18]
Heinrich voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation on October 6, 2018. He released a statement following the vote, saying, "I voted against confirming Judge Kavanaugh based not only on the substance of his views and the broken process being used to rush his nomination through the Senate on a partisan basis, but also because I have serious doubts about his credibility and truthfulness."[19]
Rich said prior to the vote that he supported Kavanaugh's confirmation, saying, "He has a strong record of upholding our constitution and laws on the federal bench, and I urge the U.S. Senate to act swiftly to hold hearings and vote on this nomination."[20]
Johnson said in a statement that he would have voted in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation.[21]
Heinrich’s campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Bases & Labs As new threats emerge and technology evolves, so must the missions of our military installations and labs. That’s why keeping New Mexico at the forefront of our nation’s advancements in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance is one of Martin’s top priorities. Securing missions and investments for our labs and installations is not only critical to our national security, but it’s also a key driver of our state’s economy. Our military installations inject $3.1 billion into New Mexico’s economy and directly support nearly 25,000 jobs – not to mention the private sector jobs created by small businesses working with our military. These are good paying, high-tech jobs of the 21st century. But in order to continue to create these kinds of jobs in New Mexico, Martin knows we must better educate our children and retrain our workforce. In the next few years, our national labs will have over 5,000 job openings – jobs that can and should be filled by New Mexicans. By developing new pathways and connecting community resources, Martin aims to generate future growth and sustainable futures for all of New Mexico’s vital contributions to our nation’s security, innovation, and prosperity. MARTIN HAS:
Conservation Protecting these resources have driven Martin’s time in public office, from his work passing green building codes and water conservation incentives on the Albuquerque city council to his fight to keep public lands in public hands. Martin’s work to protect our lands and grow our outdoor recreation industry is helping to strengthen New Mexico’s economy. Each year the outdoor industry generates $9.9 billion in consumer spending, $623 million in state and local tax revenue, and 99,000 jobs across the state. Protecting our public lands and New Mexico’s way of life includes acknowledging that climate change is real and taking concrete steps to stop its effects. Martin is a recognized leader in the Senate calling for climate action, curbing greenhouse gases and energy conservation. Public lands connect people of all means with our traditions and the great outdoors – when we protect these places, it doesn’t take much for families to go camping, hunting or fishing. While wealthy special interests would prefer locked gates and no trespassing signs, public land advocates like Martin are fighting back on behalf of working families and our environment. MARTIN HAS:
Crime He also knows that New Mexico – especially Albuquerque – has a crime problem. As an Albuquerque city councilor, Martin passed laws making it harder to purchase ingredients used in meth, worked with convenience stores to improve their security, and cracked down on gang activity in the city, including reducing graffiti across Albuquerque. In the Senate, Martin fights for funding to get more police officers on the streets. But Martin knows this isn’t enough. A long-term solution to reducing crime in New Mexico requires reforming our criminal justice system. Martin supports a criminal justice system that prioritizes pursuing violent criminals over nonviolent offenders, and is working to reduce mandatory minimums for low-level drug offenders. Martin knows we must restore trust between law enforcement and the communities they protect. He’s called for an end to racial profiling, decried police brutality, and pushed for body camera use by law enforcement. Only by strengthening community policing will we restore order and have the help we need to put the repeat offenders terrorizing our community behind bars. 'Economy Martin believes that every New Mexican who is willing to work – whether with their hands, on their feet, or behind a desk – deserves a good paying job where they can move up and get ahead. And he knows that creating those quality jobs starts with creating a fair playing field. That’s why Martin has worked to close the gender pay gap, raise the federal minimum wage to $15, and ease the barriers to entry for New Mexicans to take risks and start new businesses. Through a process called tech transfer, Martin has helped local businesses work with our national labs to develop new products and start successful homegrown companies. Martin also knows that the best way to create jobs in New Mexico requires rebuilding our infrastructure and educating our workforce. That’s why Martin has championed investments in renewable energy in New Mexico. By adding transmission capacity to export our clean energy to other states, it will create thousands of new jobs – especially in rural communities. Martin brought together our national labs, universities, and community colleges to create a pipeline that trains our children for the jobs of the future and he made it easier for our labs to hire talented New Mexico graduates and contract locally. Martin knows by building an economy that supports working families, small businesses, and rural communities, we can create opportunity in every part of New Mexico. MARTIN HAS:
Education That begins with ensuring every New Mexico child has access to a quality education, whether they live in the center of town or a rural community. Investing in early education has shown to be the most effective thing we can do to prepare our children to succeed. That’s why Martin has pushed state leaders to invest a portion of the permanent fund to make sure all New Mexico children get a head start. Martin envisions a public education pipeline – one that carries students from early childhood education to college or technical schools – to fill the jobs of the future that are being created in New Mexico. Martin believes this public education pipeline should be fully funded and should be shaped by local input. That’s why he fought for an education reform bill that required states to have teacher and parental input in education accountability plans. Martin also believes every New Mexican should have the opportunity to continue their education, whether it’s a four-year degree, community college, or vocational training. For a fraction of the $1.5 trillion hole the Republican special interest tax plan blew in the budget, we could provide tuition for every aspiring graduate for the next decade. Martin’s parents did everything they could to ensure he had the opportunity to go to college. Martin’s fighting to make sure all New Mexicans have that same opportunity. Higher education should not be a luxury; it should be an opportunity all New Mexicans can afford. MARTIN HAS:
Energy Renewable technologies are critical to accommodating our country’s energy needs. Martin works each and every day to ensure New Mexico is positioned as one of the leaders in the growing clean energy economy, with a trained workforce ready to take on the oncoming jobs. That’s why Martin secured funding for energy projects at New Mexico’s national labs, why he brokered a bipartisan deal to extend solar and wind investment and production tax credits, and why he worked to make it easier to approve wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects on public lands – projects that not only create good paying jobs, but bring revenues to New Mexico. Martin understands the steps we need to take now to prepare our energy infrastructure for our carbon-free future. He is a recognized leader on energy storage, a game-changing technology that will make our power grid more resilient and efficient. Martin is also working to make it easier for New Mexico’s clean energy producers to export their energy to other states – otherwise, New Mexico’s renewable energy resources will be left untapped and undeveloped. MARTIN HAS:
Foreign Policy The Trump administration is threatening our country’s role as a leader in world affairs by saber rattling, bungling our relationship with allies, and embracing our adversaries. The president is promoting an isolationist world view and turning his back on the values that make us American, unraveling our moral standing in real time. That’s why Martin stands for a return to smart foreign policy – that emphasizes diplomacy and working with our allies – not rash threats issued over Twitter. We must recommit to working with multinational organizations like the UN and NATO to counteract worldwide threats from countries like North Korea and Russia. And our foreign policy must emphasize protecting civil and human rights at home and abroad because that is among our nation’s core values. As a member of the Senate Select Intelligence Committee, Martin has a unique role in the investigation of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. He has been sounding the alarm on Russia’s use of digital propaganda to divide Americans and has been outspoken for the need for a cyberwarfare doctrine for the next time Russia or any other country attacks us. Until we do, Martin is working to secure our country’s infrastructure, from our electric grid to our voting machines, against future cyberattacks. Martin believes the United States must be thoughtful when deciding whether to go to war. There must be specific, achievable objectives if it does. While we should always be able to project a counter terrorism force wherever terrorist groups seek refuge, we cannot continue to be the de-facto security service for the rest of the world. Rather than letting at-risk nations fall under control of terrorists or our advisories, Martin believes we must invest in foreign aid to help stabilize these areas, saving us significant defense spending down the road and creating goodwill among the citizens in these areas. Finally, Martin knows we must pay attention to the facts and act to combat climate change. If we do not, its effects will exacerbate resource conflicts and create millions of refugees around the world. Health Care But it is not nearly enough. We live in the wealthiest country in the world, yet more than 200,000 New Mexicans still do not have access to quality, affordable health care, including 25,000 children. This is unacceptable. While Republicans claim to want reform, their attempts to dismantle our health care system would only kick millions off their insurance plans and result in higher costs with fewer benefits. Martin knows that we must do better. We must do everything possible to address the skyrocketing price of care in our country and ensure universal access to quality, affordable care for all Americans. And that starts by fixing what is not working in our health care system, not dismantling it. To rein in the skyrocketing costs of prescription drugs, Martin is working to allow Medicare to negotiate for the best possible deal for prescription drugs, a no-brainer that will lower costs for seniors. Martin is also carrying a bill allowing reimportation of cheaper prescription drugs from Canada while ensuring the prescriptions have FDA oversight and are still safe. Martin knows that by expanding programs that work – Medicare, Medicaid, and others – we can ensure that every American has access to the care they need and deserve. MARTIN HAS:
Immigration Immigration reform must also protect our Dreamers – undocumented immigrants brought here as children through no fault of their own and who don’t know how to be anything but American. This is their home and they deserve a permanent solution to allow them to stay. What we don’t need is a border wall that our border communities do not want, or an un-American ban on immigrants based on their religion. While Martin supports rigorous safety screenings, he also believes that America is not a country that turns its back on innocent victims of terrorism, allies who risked their lives for our service members or those who simply want a better life for their families. Martin will continue to fight for New Mexico’s rich diversity and to uphold our proud legacy of embracing immigrant communities that contribute to our culture and economy. MARTIN HAS:
Opioids For decades, New Mexicans have known all too well the devastating effects of opioid addiction and the difficulty finding treatment for family members. Rather than alienating those struggling with drug addiction, Martin believes we must emphasize rehabilitation and treatment. The Trump Administration has failed to deliver real resources to combat opioids. Martin helped pass $6 billion in funding to address the opioid epidemic, but he knows that is not sufficient. That’s why he’s working to pass a $45 billion investment in prevention, detection and treatment of opioid addiction – critical funds to expand treatment options in New Mexico and help those suffering from addiction begin recovery. Veterans Martin works tirelessly to hold the VA accountable and ensure that every veteran receives the benefits and care they deserve, especially our veterans living in rural areas. That’s why he ensured Alamogordo veterans could travel to El Paso’s VA for care. In New Mexico, Martin fought for the expansion of Santa Fe’s community-based outpatient clinic and for a new VA clinic in Gallup, and is urging the VA to address staffing needs across our state. Each and every day, Martin fights for those who fought for us, by sticking up for them against Washington’s bureaucracy and making sure we keep our promises. MARTIN HAS:
|
” |
—Martin Heinrich’s campaign website (2018)[23] |
Johnson’s campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Foreign Policy and National Defense Over the past couple of decades, it is difficult to see how the wars we have waged, the interventions we have conducted, the lives sacrificed, and the trillions of tax dollars we have spent on the other side of the globe have made us safer. If anything, interventionist policies have made us less safe. Many senior military and foreign policy analysts have concluded that the rise of ISIS, for example, was encouraged by instability created by our meddling in the affairs of others. The last several administrations, both Republican and Democrat, have used our military resources to pursue regime changes, embark on impossible nation-building exercises, and to establish the United States as the policeman of the world. The results: New enemies and perpetual war. We have enough problems to solve right here at home. We must repair relationships with our allies, clarify our objectives, and only send our brave members of the military to war when clearly authorized by Congress after meaningful, transparent deliberation and debate. The idea that we can defeat terrorism by simply putting more boots on the ground or dropping more bombs ignores the reality that this expensive tactic simply hasn’t worked. Education As Governor, Gary Johnson worked tirelessly to have a more substantive discussion about the best way to provide good education for our children. He did so while working with an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature and despite fierce opposition from powerful special interests. Gary Johnson believes state and local governments should have more control over education policy. Decisions that affect our children should be made closer to home, not by bureaucrats and politicians in Washington, D.C. The key to restoring education excellence in the U.S. lies in innovation, freedom, and flexibility that Washington, D.C. cannot provide. Taxes As Governor, Gary Johnson worked with a Democratic legislature to cut New Mexico taxes on incomes, gasoline and small businesses. For far too long, federal tax laws have been used not just as a means to collect needed revenues, but as a way for special interests to penalize their competitors while subsidizing themselves. The result is a tax code that is more than 70,000 pages long, enforced by a government agency with almost 100,000 employees. The result is a nightmare for the average American and unfair advantages for those with the means to manipulate the politicians. Gary Johnson advocates lower taxes, the elimination of special interest loopholes, and a system that is both simple and fair. Civil Liberties Our Founding Fathers crafted the 4th Amendment, for example, to prevent the government from snooping into our private lives without a warrant. Yet today, we have a government that spies on private communications, monitors our financial transactions, and even photographs our license plates -- all without legitimate warrants or due process of law. Gary Johnson wants to get the government out of your personal life. Out of your cell phone. Out of your bedroom. And back into the business of protecting your freedoms, not threatening them. Gary Johnson believes that people, not politicians, should make choices in their personal lives, as long as harm is not done to others. Support Our Veterans Health care choices should rest with veterans themselves. While there are many dedicated, caring professionals working in VA facilities, much of the bureaucracy of the VA is more concerned with its own perpetuation than with providing veterans with the care they need. That must be corrected NOW. From elder care to PTSD to the specific health challenges of women who have served in uniform, veterans have a wide range of urgent needs. For some, the VA medical system is the best or only option. That system must function efficiently, provide timely care, and meet the standards we would expect for our own family members. For those who need care from private physicians or hospitals, that option must be available. Likewise, Gary Johnson understands the challenges faced by many veterans in their transition to civilian life and careers. The discipline and skills earned from military service are of tremendous value to many employers. It is part of our moral contract with those who have served to not only maintain the GI Bill, but to enhance public-private partnerships designed to match veterans’ skills with the career choices they wish to make. Family support, counseling and other tools for helping veterans deal with their unique challenges are essential. Homelessness, substance abuse, and yes, suicide are all-too frequent among veterans as they re-enter civilian life – and our obligation to support those who have served does not end when they sign their discharge papers. Immigration Having served as Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson knows the complex issues associated with immigration reform first hand. Solving immigration problems is not as easy as building a wall or militarizing OUR border with Mexico. And separating parents from their children, and putting those children in detention centers is most certainly not a solution to anything. Politicians who have for too long played on fear and demonized immigrants have rendered Congress incapable of common sense reforms. A straightforward system that allows immigrants to obtain work visas and move back and forth across the border efficiently will go a very long way toward reducing illegal entry and allow the government to focus resources on actual criminals and those who would do us harm. Gary Johnson doesn’t want a Wall. He wants a common sense system that works.[22] |
” |
—Gary Johnson’s campaign website (2018)[24] |
Rich’s campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Taxes How else can we improve our new tax system? Continue to make it fairer, simpler, and more honest. We can close special interest loopholes and end tax codes that allow cheating. When we’re done, payroll employees should feel no need for professional help to file their taxes, and every taxpayer should feel we all pay our fair share. Sanctity of Life Jobs & Economy Next, we can shift existing federal spending from non-productive programs to renew our national infrastructure. Our roads, bridges, railroads, airports, water and sewer lines, and energy generation and transmission systems form the backbone of our economy and the lifeline of our public well being. But compared with other wealthy nations, America’s infrastructure is old and crumbling. Repairing and renewing it will help both businesses and citizens, and will create steady, good-paying, hard hat jobs. This isn’t government magic – it’s common sense. 2nd Amendment Energy Healthcare Immigration Veterans National Security |
” |
—Mick Rich’s campaign website (2018)[25] |
Tweets by Martin Heinrich Tweets by Gary Johnson Tweets by Mick Rich
Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.
This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.
A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:
Three of 33 New Mexico counties—9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Colfax County, New Mexico | 8.55% | 2.24% | 10.73% | ||||
Hidalgo County, New Mexico | 6.73% | 4.96% | 2.92% | ||||
Valencia County, New Mexico | 8.60% | 2.47% | 7.72% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Mexico with 48.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40 percent. In presidential elections between 1912 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic 56 percent of the time and Republican 44 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic four times. The state voted Republican in 2004.[26]
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Mexico. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[27][28]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 29.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 26.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 24.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 27 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1 | 20.96% | 75.79% | R+54.8 | 18.04% | 72.51% | R+54.5 | R |
2 | 27.47% | 69.17% | R+41.7 | 21.96% | 67.15% | R+45.2 | R |
3 | 22.91% | 73.48% | R+50.6 | 17.17% | 73.66% | R+56.5 | R |
4 | 51.61% | 45.33% | D+6.3 | 42.79% | 42.74% | D+0.1 | R |
5 | 70.17% | 26.83% | D+43.3 | 60.70% | 24.05% | D+36.6 | D |
6 | 70.21% | 27.48% | D+42.7 | 58.64% | 28.48% | D+30.2 | D |
7 | 50.49% | 44.11% | D+6.4 | 40.92% | 45.72% | R+4.8 | R |
8 | 46.36% | 48.66% | R+2.3 | 37.51% | 49.60% | R+12.1 | R |
9 | 71.00% | 26.44% | D+44.6 | 61.37% | 24.12% | D+37.2 | D |
10 | 65.21% | 30.46% | D+34.8 | 56.93% | 31.21% | D+25.7 | D |
11 | 74.16% | 20.74% | D+53.4 | 69.71% | 18.46% | D+51.2 | D |
12 | 68.74% | 26.63% | D+42.1 | 61.46% | 27.69% | D+33.8 | D |
13 | 67.68% | 27.95% | D+39.7 | 59.39% | 27.06% | D+32.3 | D |
14 | 75.95% | 20.09% | D+55.9 | 65.37% | 23.23% | D+42.1 | D |
15 | 49.95% | 45.35% | D+4.6 | 48.43% | 38.84% | D+9.6 | R |
16 | 60.23% | 35.40% | D+24.8 | 54.22% | 33.06% | D+21.2 | D |
17 | 62.55% | 32.61% | D+29.9 | 57.98% | 29.63% | D+28.3 | D |
18 | 74.99% | 17.57% | D+57.4 | 73.69% | 13.64% | D+60.1 | D |
19 | 71.55% | 22.91% | D+48.6 | 67.73% | 20.05% | D+47.7 | D |
20 | 46.26% | 48.57% | R+2.3 | 45.05% | 41.13% | D+3.9 | R |
21 | 61.08% | 33.19% | D+27.9 | 53.96% | 31.12% | D+22.8 | D |
22 | 42.30% | 51.77% | R+9.5 | 40.33% | 46.60% | R+6.3 | R |
23 | 50.61% | 44.70% | D+5.9 | 47.86% | 39.71% | D+8.1 | D |
24 | 52.10% | 42.11% | D+10 | 47.19% | 36.79% | D+10.4 | D |
25 | 60.90% | 33.31% | D+27.6 | 57.03% | 28.81% | D+28.2 | D |
26 | 62.57% | 33.00% | D+29.6 | 55.12% | 32.19% | D+22.9 | D |
27 | 43.63% | 51.56% | R+7.9 | 43.86% | 42.63% | D+1.2 | R |
28 | 43.36% | 51.02% | R+7.7 | 43.31% | 42.27% | D+1 | R |
29 | 48.16% | 47.12% | D+1 | 45.04% | 41.24% | D+3.8 | R |
30 | 50.06% | 44.08% | D+6 | 47.75% | 37.01% | D+10.7 | R |
31 | 38.29% | 57.90% | R+19.6 | 41.78% | 45.91% | R+4.1 | R |
32 | 48.95% | 47.93% | D+1 | 43.90% | 47.34% | R+3.4 | D |
33 | 57.44% | 38.34% | D+19.1 | 55.59% | 32.01% | D+23.6 | D |
34 | 67.75% | 30.86% | D+36.9 | 64.65% | 28.49% | D+36.2 | D |
35 | 58.06% | 38.71% | D+19.3 | 54.23% | 34.26% | D+20 | D |
36 | 53.29% | 43.51% | D+9.8 | 49.35% | 39.28% | D+10.1 | D |
37 | 50.09% | 46.98% | D+3.1 | 49.32% | 39.69% | D+9.6 | D |
38 | 45.97% | 50.34% | R+4.4 | 39.87% | 49.90% | R+10 | R |
39 | 53.53% | 43.60% | D+9.9 | 48.95% | 41.86% | D+7.1 | D |
40 | 69.65% | 27.03% | D+42.6 | 60.30% | 28.99% | D+31.3 | D |
41 | 74.26% | 22.15% | D+52.1 | 64.48% | 23.77% | D+40.7 | D |
42 | 77.86% | 18.20% | D+59.7 | 69.70% | 18.34% | D+51.4 | D |
43 | 51.55% | 42.52% | D+9 | 51.63% | 31.90% | D+19.7 | D |
44 | 42.34% | 53.33% | R+11 | 38.87% | 48.14% | R+9.3 | R |
45 | 75.50% | 20.49% | D+55 | 71.68% | 19.09% | D+52.6 | D |
46 | 76.11% | 19.64% | D+56.5 | 72.91% | 17.80% | D+55.1 | D |
47 | 75.23% | 21.12% | D+54.1 | 75.51% | 16.95% | D+58.6 | D |
48 | 79.43% | 16.14% | D+63.3 | 76.07% | 15.07% | D+61 | D |
49 | 48.75% | 46.04% | D+2.7 | 39.56% | 48.03% | R+8.5 | R |
50 | 54.56% | 40.49% | D+14.1 | 49.33% | 40.67% | D+8.7 | D |
51 | 34.24% | 62.18% | R+27.9 | 29.61% | 60.13% | R+30.5 | R |
52 | 62.23% | 35.17% | D+27.1 | 62.07% | 29.79% | D+32.3 | D |
53 | 48.82% | 48.52% | D+0.3 | 48.39% | 41.93% | D+6.5 | R |
54 | 32.19% | 64.92% | R+32.7 | 25.69% | 66.62% | R+40.9 | R |
55 | 29.64% | 67.48% | R+37.8 | 24.35% | 67.91% | R+43.6 | R |
56 | 34.58% | 61.37% | R+26.8 | 29.21% | 61.10% | R+31.9 | R |
57 | 45.25% | 50.34% | R+5.1 | 39.99% | 46.81% | R+6.8 | R |
58 | 43.98% | 52.91% | R+8.9 | 36.58% | 53.06% | R+16.5 | R |
59 | 29.23% | 67.78% | R+38.5 | 23.93% | 67.65% | R+43.7 | R |
60 | 42.37% | 52.23% | R+9.9 | 38.93% | 47.35% | R+8.4 | R |
61 | 32.56% | 65.02% | R+32.5 | 29.95% | 62.63% | R+32.7 | R |
62 | 19.59% | 78.35% | R+58.8 | 18.39% | 74.53% | R+56.1 | R |
63 | 49.61% | 47.24% | D+2.4 | 36.71% | 51.26% | R+14.6 | D |
64 | 24.47% | 72.92% | R+48.5 | 20.65% | 70.74% | R+50.1 | R |
65 | 79.83% | 16.71% | D+63.1 | 67.22% | 16.91% | D+50.3 | D |
66 | 24.60% | 72.24% | R+47.6 | 21.08% | 69.94% | R+48.9 | R |
67 | 37.15% | 59.71% | R+22.6 | 27.94% | 62.43% | R+34.5 | R |
68 | 47.01% | 48.56% | R+1.5 | 43.56% | 42.91% | D+0.7 | R |
69 | 68.52% | 28.07% | D+40.4 | 56.03% | 29.07% | D+27 | D |
70 | 69.54% | 26.69% | D+42.9 | 60.23% | 28.91% | D+31.3 | D |
Total | 52.99% | 42.84% | D+10.1 | 48.26% | 40.04% | D+8.2 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
U.S. Senate, New Mexico General Election, 2014 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Democratic | Tom Udall Incumbent | 55.6% | 286,409 | |
Republican | Allen Weh | 44.4% | 229,097 | |
Total Votes | 515,506 | |||
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State |
U.S. Senate, New Mexico General Election, 2012 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Democratic | Martin Heinrich | 51% | 395,717 | |
Republican | Heather Wilson | 45.3% | 351,260 | |
Independent American | Jon Ross Barrie | 3.6% | 28,199 | |
Total Votes | 775,176 | |||
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" |
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[29] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped) | |
2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D | |
2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[30] | -7 | R | |
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped) |
This section details the partisan control of state and federal positions in New Mexico heading into the 2018 elections.
New Mexico held elections for the following positions in 2018:
Demographic data for New Mexico | ||
---|---|---|
New Mexico | U.S. | |
Total population: | 2,080,328 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 121,298 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 73.2% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 2.1% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 1.4% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 9.1% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 3.3% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 47.4% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 84.2% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 26.3% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $44,963 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 24.7% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Mexico. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, New Mexico's three largest cities were Albuquerque (pop. est. 560,000), Las Cruces (pop. est. 100,000), and Rio Rancho (pop. est. 96,000).[31]
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Mexico from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from New Mexico Secretary of State.
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Mexico every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), New Mexico 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | Hillary Clinton | 48.3% | Donald Trump | 40.0% | 8.3% |
2012 | Barack Obama | 53.0% | Mitt Romney | 42.8% | 10.2% |
2008 | Barack Obama | 56.9% | John McCain | 41.8% | 15.1% |
2004 | George W. Bush | 49.8% | John Kerry | 49.1% | 0.7% |
2000 | Al Gore | 47.9% | George W. Bush | 47.9% | 0.0% |
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Mexico from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), New Mexico 2000-2014 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | Tom Udall | 55.6% | Allan Weh | 44.4% | 11.2% |
2012 | Martin Heinrich | 51.0% | Heather Wilson | 45.3% | 5.7% |
2008 | Tom Udall | 61.3% | Steve Pearce | 38.7% | 22.6% |
2006 | Jeff Bingaman | 70.6% | Allen McCulloch | 29.3% | 41.3% |
2002 | Pete Domenici | 65.0% | Gloria Tristani | 35.0% | 30.0% |
2000 | Jeff Bingaman | 62.7% | Bill Redmond | 37.3% | 25.4% |
This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Mexico.
Election results (Governor), New Mexico 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | Susana Martinez | 57.3% | Gary King | 42.7% | 14.6% |
2010 | Susana Martinez | 53.3% | Diane Denish | 46.5% | 6.8% |
2006 | Bill Richardson | 68.8% | John Dendahl | 31.2% | 37.6% |
2002 | Bill Richardson | 55.5% | John Sanchez | 39.0% | 16.5% |
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Mexico in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
New Mexico Party Control: 1992-2021
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
<ref>
tag;
no text was provided for refs named jenters
|