United States Senate election in Texas, 2018

From Ballotpedia - Reading time: 42 min



2020
2014
U.S. Senate, Texas
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 11, 2017
Primary: March 6, 2018
Primary runoff: May 22, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Ted Cruz (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Texas
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st32nd33rd34th35th36th27th (special)
Texas elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) and entrepreneur Neal Dikeman (L) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas on November 6, 2018.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Although Texas had voted to send a Republican to the White House, U.S. Senate, and governor’s office in every statewide election since 1994, two election forecasters called this race a Toss-up or Leans Republican. Cruz won his first term in 2012, defeating former state Rep. Paul Sadler (D) by 16 percentage points, 57 percent to 41 percent.

“If this race looks different than the rest, that’s probably because it is a strong Democratic challenger raising prolific sums of money and tons of earned media," said Lyceum Poll Research Director Josh Blank.[1]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results[edit]

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election
General election for U.S. Senate Texas

Incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke and Neal Dikeman in the general election for U.S. Senate Texas on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Ted_Cruz.jpg

Ted Cruz (R)
 
50.9
 
4,260,553

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Beto_O_Rourke-7_fixed.jpg

Beto O'Rourke (D)
 
48.3
 
4,045,632

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Neal_Dikeman-min.jpg

Neal Dikeman (L)
 
0.8
 
65,470

Total votes: 8,371,655

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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Texas

Beto O'Rourke defeated Sema Hernandez and Edward Kimbrough in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Texas on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Beto_O_Rourke-7_fixed.jpg

Beto O'Rourke
 
61.8
 
640,769

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/sema-hernandez.jpg

Sema Hernandez
 
23.7
 
245,847

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Edward Kimbrough
 
14.5
 
149,851

Total votes: 1,036,467

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Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate Texas

Incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Mary Miller, Bruce Jacobson Jr., Stefano de Stefano, and Geraldine Sam in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Texas on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Ted_Cruz.jpg

Ted Cruz
 
85.3
 
1,315,146

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mary_Miller.jpg

Mary Miller
 
6.1
 
94,274

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/fullsizeoutput_1208.jpeg

Bruce Jacobson Jr.
 
4.2
 
64,452

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Stefano_02.jpg

Stefano de Stefano
 
2.9
 
44,251

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Geraldine Sam
 
1.5
 
22,767

Total votes: 1,540,890

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


Candidate profiles[edit]

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages
Beto O'Rourke, U.S. representative
Beto O'Rourke.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: U.S. House, Texas' 16th Congressional District (assumed office: 2013); El Paso City Council (2005-2011)

Biography: O'Rourke's professional experience includes working for a Manhattan web technology company and co-founding Stanton Street Technology. He was elected to serve on the El Paso City Council from 2005 to 2011 and first elected to represent Texas' 16th Congressional District in 2012. He earned a B.A. from Columbia University.[2][3]

Campaign messaging
  • O'Rourke emphasized his commitment to bipartisanship while promoting a progressive policy platform on abortion, gun violence, and healthcare. He said he consistently hosted monthly town halls for five years with his constituents.[2][4][5]
  • O'Rourke said of his grassroots campaign to reach out to voters in conservative counties in the state, “I don't know if I'm going to win more votes than the last Democrat who ran in those counties, but I know that not enough Democrats have been showing up in those counties in the first place. And they haven't been reflecting the needs of those counties."[5][6]
  • O'Rourke highlighted his work on the House Committees for Armed Services and Veterans Affairs, including proposing and shepherding a pilot program for a VA Wellness Center in El Paso, Texas.[2][7]
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator
Ted Cruz.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Senate, Texas (assumed office: 2013); Solicitor General of Texas (2003-2008)

Biography: Cruz previously worked as a law clerk to Chief Justice of the United States William Rehnquist, associate deputy attorney general for the U.S. Department of Justice, director of the Office of Policy Planning for the Federal Trade Commission, and the solicitor general of Texas from 2003 to 2008. He was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2012. Cruz graduated from Princeton University and Harvard Law School.[8]

Campaign messaging
  • Cruz linked his conservative platform to state pride with a “Tough as Texas” campaign slogan. "In Texas, we believe in low taxes, low regulation, low debt. We want Washington D.C. the heck off our backs,” he said at a campaign rally.[9][10]
  • Cruz highlighted policy achievements over policy positions, including his opposition to stricter gun ownership regulations; introduction of Kate's Law to increase penalties for deported individuals who re-enter the U.S.; and authorship of the the NASA Transition Authorization Act to secure Texas jobs.[11]
  • Cruz characterized O'Rourke as reckless and extremist on drug and immigration policy in several negative campaign ads.[12]


Neal Dikeman, venture capitalist
Neal Dikeman.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Libertarian

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Dikeman founded Jane Capital at 25 and co-founded seven other technology startups ranging from energy to software. He was also a venture capitalist at the parent company of YellowPages.com and at Shell Oil. Heading into the election, Dikeman was an active investor and the chairman of the Cleantech.org network and Greenhome.com.[13]

Key messages
  • Dikeman said he was running for U.S. Senate for his children. He said, "Together we should be building our sons’ and daughters’ futures, not letting our elected officials borrow from it to support our lifestyle. The partisan politics has to stop."[14]
  • Dikeman identified addressing the national debt, inequality, and wage stagnation as priorities.[14]
  • Dikeman also said privacy was a priority. He said, "Our rights and our privacy are increasingly challenged in a digital, connected age, and our government is part of the problem, not the solution."[14]


Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Cruz Democratic Party O'RourkeOther/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Trafalgar Group
November 3-5, 2018
N/A 52%43%5%+/-2.12,135
Emerson
October 28-30, 2018
N/A 50%47%2%+/-3.7781
UT Tyler Polling Center
October 15-28, 2018
N/A 46%39%15%+/-3.01,033
Quinnipiac University
October 22-28, 2018
N/A 51%46%3%+/-3.51,078
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies
October 25-26, 2018
N/A 52%42%5%+/-4.0588
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
October 15-21, 2018
N/A 51%45%4%+/-3.2927
GBA Strategies
October 18-21, 2018
End Citizens United 50%46%4%+/-3.21,298
Reuters
October 12-18, 2018
N/A 49%44%7%+/-3.21,298
CNN/SRSS
October 9-13, 2018
N/A 52%45%3%+/-4.5716
WPA Intelligence
October 8-13, 2018
Club for Growth Action 52%43%5%+/-3.5801
New York Times/Siena College
October 8-11, 2018
N/A 51%43%6%+/-3.6800
Quinnipiac University
October 3-9, 2018
N/A 54%45%2%+/-4.4730
CBS News/YouGov
October 2-5, 2018
N/A 50%44%6%+/-4.2881
Emerson
October 1-5, 2018
N/A 47%42%11%+/-4.5500
AVERAGES 50.5% 43.86% 5.57% +/-3.61 969
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

PredictIt Prices[edit]

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance[edit]

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ted Cruz Republican Party $35,409,077 $39,458,810 $157,959 As of December 31, 2018
Neal Dikeman Libertarian Party $33,732 $33,398 $333 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," .

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.



Satellite spending[edit]

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[15][16][17]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • Club for Growth planned to invest "seven figures" to support Cruz's re-election, Washington Examiner reported in August 2018. They made an $868,000 ad buy in September 2018.[18][19]
  • Ending Spending spent $950,000 on an ad buy against O'Rourke in October 2018.[20]
  • The pro-Cruz super PAC Texans Are reserved $750,000 in ad time in the Corpus Christi, San Antonio, and Waco markets for September 2018.[21] The group made an additional $1.1 million ad buy in September 2018.[22][19]
  • The anti-Cruz super PAC Texas Forever made a $1.2 million advertising buy in the Dallas-Fort Worth market in October 2018 focused on Cruz's healthcare policy.[23]

Race ratings[edit]

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[24]
  • Tossup ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[25][26][27]

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Texas, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Policy stances[edit]

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement[edit]

In July 2018, O'Rourke said that he was willing to discuss abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) but challenged that eliminating ICE would not necessarily address the practice of family separations employed by those agencies. Cruz called this position radical.[28]

O'Rourke countered by highlighting a comment Cruz made in June 2018 about the family separation policy. "When you see Democrats saying don't separate kids from their parents, what they're really saying is don't arrest illegal aliens," Cruz said. He later said, "We should all agree that families should stay together.”[28]

Campaign ads[edit]

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Beto O'Rourke[edit]

O'Rourke's first campaign ad focused on his time on the campaign trail, visiting all 254 counties in the state and engaging with each community regardless of background or political ideology.

Support[edit]

"Our Live Ad" - Beto for Texas campaign ad, released October 4, 2018
"Showing Up" - Beto for Texas campaign ad, released July 26, 2018

Oppose[edit]

"Barrel" - Ending Spending opposition ad, released October 4, 2018
"War on Police" - Cruz opposition ad, released October 2, 2018
"Not Cool" - Club for Growth ad, released September 28, 2018
"Booming" - Cruz campaign ad, released September 26, 2018
"Bulldozer" - Club for Growth ad, released September 4, 2018
"Stand for the Anthem" - Cruz campaign ad, released August 27, 2018

Republican Party Ted Cruz[edit]

Cruz's first general election campaign ads, released in August 2018, focused on Cruz's response to Hurricane Harvey and engagement with the communities impacted by the storm.

Support[edit]

"Completely Ridiculous" - Cruz campaign ad, released August 28, 2018
"Harvey" - Cruz campaign ad, released August 3, 2018

Oppose[edit]

"Don't Mess" - Texas Forever ad, released October 25, 2018


Noteworthy events[edit]

Brett Kavanaugh confirmation vote[edit]

See also: Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview

On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.[29]

Cruz voted for Kavanaugh's confirmation on October 6, 2018. He said in a statement, "Donald Trump promised to nominate constitutionalists who would defend the Constitution, who would defend the Bill of Rights. ... I believe that’s what the American people want. Judges who will follow the law, who will be faithful to the Constitution, who will uphold our fundamental liberties. Free speech, religious liberty, the Second Amendment, the Tenth Amendment, the fundamental liberties protected of every American in the United States Constitution."[30]

O'Rourke said he would have voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation. "We need a Supreme Court Justice who believes in voting rights. In a state where you can be fired for being gay, a Supreme Court Justice who believes in civil rights. A state that's the epicenter of the maternal mortality crisis, a Justice who believes in a woman`s right to make her own decision about her own body and have access to the healthcare that ensures that she can. [Kavanaugh] fails the bar on each and every single one of those tests," he said in an interview on October 9, 2018.[31]

Debates and forums[edit]

October 16, 2018, debate[edit]

Cruz and O'Rourke participated in a debate on October 16, 2018, at the studios of KENS 5 in San Antonio. The candidates discussed the government shutdown, border security, and the Trump administration, among other issues.[32]

  • Find the CBS News round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the New York Times round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Texas Tribune round-up of the debate here.
Second U.S. Senate debate in Texas, October 16, 2018

September 21, 2018, debate[edit]

Cruz and O'Rourke participated in a debate on September 21, 2018, hosted by Southern Methodist University and moderated by NBC 5 political reporter Julie Fine and Dallas Morning News political writer Gromer Jeffers. The candidates discussed gun legislation, immigration, the Trump administration, and police-related shootings, among other issues.[33]

  • Find the Dallas News round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Houston Chronicle round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the NPR round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Texas Tribune round-up of the debate here.
  • Find the Vox round-up of the debate here.
First U.S. Senate debate in Texas, September 21, 2018

Campaign themes[edit]

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites in September 2018.

Democratic Party Beto O'Rourke[edit]

Agriculture

Agriculture has always been and will continue to be a vital part of the Texas economic fabric. Today, ag has an annual economic impact of over $100 billion and employs over 600,000 Texans, many of whom are individual or family farmers. While agriculture is certainly a bright spot for the Texas economy, we must continue to support the families that provide the food and fiber on which we all depend.

Steps we should take to ensure Texas farmers can thrive:

  • Maintain and strengthen the farmer safety net. Congress should strengthen federal crop insurance programs for Texas farmers who are being squeezed by rising production costs. The safety net should account for all farmers, including cotton, corn, sorghum, pecans, peanuts, and others.
  • Provide robust rural infrastructure for Texas farmers, ranchers, and rural communities to provide more economic opportunity. Underinvestment in rural infrastructure puts Texas ag at a competitive disadvantage. Rural areas desperately need investments in broadband, upgrades to water and road systems, and modernized schools. Government should be a partner for these communities in spurring rural economic development.
  • Ensure farmers don’t have to face unnecessary labor shortfalls that undermine productivity. Immigration reform can help address these issues by more effectively linking migrant laborers with farmers and by protecting undocumented workers. We should treat these individuals with dignity and respect because they are a critical component of our agriculture communities.
  • Avoid unnecessary trade wars and ensure foreign markets are open to U.S. agriculture exports. Current proposals for tariffs create tremendous uncertainty for Texas farmers. Trade wars rattle commodity markets and force farmers to scramble using limited information. Texas agriculture – and especially family farmers – depend on stable markets. We should be working to enhance stability and transparency.
  • Protect the environment so farm families can continue to produce for generations to come. Environmentally sustainable farming can help preserve Texas lands for the future. However, serving as stewards of the environment should make clear economic sense. Federal policy can elevate best practices and empower farmers to adopt innovative farming techniques.

Disability Rights

When the United States adopted the Americans with Disabilities Act, we became the first country in the world to pass comprehensive civil rights legislation for individuals with disabilities. Today, we must protect and build on that legacy to ensure the 3 million Texans with disabilities have an equal opportunity to participate in our communities, enjoy a high-quality life and live with dignity.

Here’s how we can work together to achieve that:

  • Fight attempts to weaken the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), including efforts to limit equal access to public places and businesses, and defend Social Security, Medicaid, and long-term supports and services from cuts and caps.
  • Protect the Affordable Care Act and its provisions that ensure individuals with disabilities can access high-quality healthcare, including guaranteed coverage for pre-existing conditions, the prohibition on cost discrimination, and the elimination of annual and lifetime limits.
  • Expand access to services in the home and community as an alternative to institutionalization through legislation like the Disability Integration Act.
  • Fully fund our commitments under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act so that students with disabilities can receive the services and instruction they need to live and contribute to their full potential.
  • Tackle the high unemployment rate for people with disabilities by supporting quality education and improving access to meaningful work opportunities.

Economy

All workers should benefit from the economic growth they help create. Everyone has a stake in prosperity. We have to promote fair and transparent markets that allow every Texan to compete and thrive.

  • Promote policies that encourage companies to focus on returning investments back to their consumer, their employees, and to the community.
  • Lower the barrier to entry for small businesses so that every entrepreneur or emerging growth company can have an opportunity to be successful.
  • Promote regulations that protect consumers, promote competition and grow the economy.
  • Support stronger antitrust regulations that break up monopolies and trusts that stifle competition and innovation.

Education

Every Texan deserves access to a quality education that will allow them to reach their full potential. It is the surest path to individual success and for the collective success of our state and country.

  • No public tax dollars should be given to private schools.
  • Increase public funding for low income and underserved communities.
  • Public school teachers should have their retirements protected by ensuring that we do away with the Windfall Elimination Provision.
  • We should continue to take steps towards moving control to the classroom and empowering teachers to fulfill their calling by having autonomy to teach their students and reduce the emphasis on arbitrary, high-stakes tests.
  • Strike down toxic legislation like Senate Bill 6 and any regulation that discriminates against a student based on their sexual orientation or gender identity.

Energy and the Environment

It is crucial now more than ever that the U.S. and world leaders act urgently to address the issue of climate change. We must ensure the funding and independence of organizations like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) so that they can provide necessary climate science research.

Other steps we can take to promote energy and environmental reforms include:

  • Enacting comprehensive energy reform that optimizes the uses of current energy sources while incentivizing the innovation of new and renewable sources of energy.
  • Rejoining the Paris Climate Accords.
  • Empowering the EPA to exercise oversight of those harming the environment, particularly drilling, fracking, and pipeline construction.

Supporting stronger land-use policies in Texas.

Equality

All Americans must be treated equally under the law. Steps we can take to achieve this goal include:

  • Supporting measures like the Equality Act, proposed legislation that would provide the same nondiscrimination protections to LGBTQIA Americans as any other protected class under federal law.
  • Guaranteeing that same-sex couples are entitled to access the same federal benefits as any other Texas family. Repealing the Defense of Marriage (DOMA) Act entirely and ensuring same sex couples equal access to benefits like social security, regardless of the state in which they live.
  • Ensuring that all Americans are paid equally and treated fairly, regardless of their gender. It is critical that we support policies that end wage discrimination and close the gender pay gap.

Government Accountability

We can’t achieve this until our government is reflective of and responsive to the people it purports to serve and represent. Texans deserve a government that performs for them and is a good steward of taxpayer dollars. Here’s how we get that done:

  • We must end perpetual reelection and bring new voices to Congress by imposing term limits on every member of the House and Senate. This is why I have committed to serving only two terms if I am elected to the U.S. Senate.
  • Texans send their hard-earned money to Washington with the expectation that it is working to improve their lives, not cater to special interest groups. Let’s get big money out of Washington and ensure legislation isn’t written by the highest bidder. This begins with preventing politicians from accepting money from Political Action Committees (PACs) and returning power to electorate. That’s why I introduced the No PAC Act (H.R.1743), which would prevent any elected official from accepting PAC contributions.
  • End gerrymandering where members of Congress choose their voters instead of the other way around. We should have a non-partisan, non-politician redistricting commission that ends the practice of racial gerrymandering that has drawn people out of their democracy based on their race and ethnicity.
  • Ensuring the government works more efficiently and costs less by eliminating redundant or outdated federal regulations and improving transparency and oversight of federal agencies.

Gun Safety

Texas has a proud and honorable tradition of responsible gun ownership for hunting, sport, self-defense, and collecting. Like so many Texans, Beto learned to safely handle and shoot a gun at a young age — taught by his Uncle Raymond who was a sheriff’s deputy and a jail captain. That shared heritage — that uniquely Texas experience — means that our state should lead the way in preserving the Second Amendment while working together to ensure people can live without fear of gun violence in their communities.

We should:

  • Require background checks for all gun sales to ensure that firearms only get into the hands of responsible, law-abiding individuals. This means finally closing the gun show, online, and boyfriend loopholes.
  • Stop selling weapons of war and high-capacity magazines to ensure that firearms designed to kill as effectively and efficiently as possible on the battlefield aren’t used in our schools, our streets, our churches, and our concerts.
  • Block the erosion of Texas’ license to carry standards by opposing Concealed Carry Reciprocity, which would force Texas to allow anyone from states with weak to nonexistent conceal carry laws to disregard our own public safety requirements.
  • Fully support federal research on gun violence so that we can better understand and address its root causes.

Healthcare

Healthcare is a moral question that transcends politics – it is a basic human right, not a privilege. 4.3 million Texans – including over 600,000 children – can’t see a doctor, or when they do, they’re so sick they have no choice but to go to the Emergency Room where the cost will be many times more expensive and the outcome will be worse.

When a mother forgoes a routine mammogram because she is uninsured, or a father ignores chronic pain because he didn’t qualify for a subsidy to buy insurance, everyone’s healthcare costs are likely to be greater in the long-term. We want our parents and our children to be healthy and live to their full potential. This is much more likely when they have access to the healthcare they need.

Steps that we should take together to transform healthcare include:

  • Improving the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by stabilizing our insurance markets. Guaranteeing continued payments for ACA subsidies that reduce enrollees’ cost-sharing and reimbursing insurers for high-cost individuals.
  • Incentivizing insurers to participate in the exchanges, especially in underserved counties.
  • Expanding Medicaid to cover more Texans and protecting the Medicaid guarantee for vulnerable children, the disabled, and the elderly.
  • Lowering premiums and prescription drug costs by using the government’s purchasing power to make healthcare more affordable for everyone.
  • Creating a public option on the exchanges so that Americans are guaranteed affordable coverage.
  • Achieving universal healthcare coverage— whether it be through a single payer system, a dual system, or otherwise – so that we can ensure everyone is able to see a provider when it will do the most good and will deliver healthcare in the most affordable, effective way possible.

Higher Education

  • Increase funding for Pell Grant scholarships and the Federal Perkins Loan program to ensure education is affordable for all Texans.
  • Broaden educational opportunities for Texans beyond a traditional 4 year college by improving access to community colleges, trade schools, and nanodegrees.
  • Allow Texans who commit to working in in-demand fields and in underserved communities the chance to graduate debt free.
  • Control the pace of inflation within institutions of higher learning by using the federal government’s leverage through its grants, loans and research spending to demand affordability from universities.

Immigration

Much of our strength, success, and security as a state and as a country depends on the immigrants who contribute to our society as together we build the American Dream. Any honest immigration reform must reflect the value of immigrants, refugees, and asylum-seekers by providing a path to work, family reunification and citizenship.

At a time when the border with Mexico has never been safer, and when we’ve never spent so much on border security, the surest way to improve safety and security is not to build a wall or spend billions more, but to ensure that we are maximizing the potential from everyone in this state, treating each other with respect and dignity.

Here’s how we do that:

  • End the militarization of our immigration enforcement system, and close private immigration prisons and detention centers that profit from locking up families.
  • Pass the DREAM Act and ensure that undocumented immigrants who were brought here as children, known as ‘Dreamers’, find a permanent home and citizenship in the U.S.
  • Ensure that those who come to our borders seeking refuge from violence and persecution are given a fair opportunity to present their claims and guaranteed due process under our laws.
  • Improve the immigration system to encourage and facilitate family reunification, education, and the investment of talent in our country.
  • Modernize the visa system to allow U.S. employers to find workers for jobs that American workers can’t fill.
  • Reform our immigration laws to legalize the status of millions of immigrants already in our country and ensure a fair path to citizenship for those inspired by the opportunity and ideals that we present to the rest of the world.

Jobs

We owe it to unemployed and underemployed Texans to connect them with high value jobs by bringing those jobs to Texas. We must ensure that every Texan benefits from the country’s economic growth and that every person who is willing to work has a chance to.

  • Invest in training, certification, and registered apprenticeship programs to allow Texans – especially those without college degrees – to keep pace with increasingly specialized professions.
  • Increase federal spending on infrastructure in order to create new construction and manufacturing jobs for out of work Texans and promote economic growth.
  • Promote rural broadband infrastructure policies that expand access to broadband to all communities.
  • Protect the Earned Income Tax Credit that benefits millions of hardworking American families and promote the Family and Medical Leave Act to ensure those families can stay healthy and strong.

Justice

We imprison more of our own people than does any other country on the planet. Our system of imprisonment is biased against African Americans and Latinos and criminalizes the poor. This must end. We can be more effective at rehabilitation and improve safety in our communities at a much lower cost while improving the opportunities for young people to achieve to their full potential.

To do so we must do the following:

  • End the U.S. government’s war on drugs and encourage comprehensive reforms in drug control policies that have had a devastating effect on communities of color.
  • End the federal prohibition on marijuana.
  • End the practice of private and for-profit prisons that cost more, have the perverse incentive to send more people to jail, and have demonstrably higher levels of violence. According to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, prisons owned by for-profit companies held nearly three-quarters of federal immigration detainees in 2016.
  • Find ways for nonviolent offenders to be held accountable for their crimes outside of the prison system and support programs that help rehabilitate them.
  • Improve access to mental health services within our prison systems to help diagnose and address offenders with existing mental health issues and drive down rates of recidivism.
  • End the current system of bail bonds that punishes people for being poor. The current system allows bail for those who can afford it, instead of ensuring that a person’s release won’t result in harm to someone else. Reforming the bail system will refocus public dollars on community safety and ensure that we no longer waste resources on incarcerating those who are not a public safety risk.

National Security

Congress has avoided its responsibility to provide oversight for the wars the U.S. is fighting around the world. We’re at war in six countries right now and fighting enemies that didn’t exist when Congress authorized the global war on terrorism following 9/11. We need to support our service members by ensuring this country has defined victory; has adopted a comprehensive strategy to achieve it; and is willing to commit the resources and leadership to see it through.

  • Provide the necessary financial resources and support to Texas military bases and facilities to ensure that they can accomplish their missions.
  • If we are to continue to put our service members in harm’s way, Congress owes the American people a debate and vote to give guidance to our military on who we should be fighting and where.
  • Acknowledge that we cannot kill our way to achieving our goals, nor should we put the entire weight of U.S. foreign policy on the backs of our service members.
  • Congress must work with our military leaders to clearly define victory so that our service members and our citizens know what we are fighting for.
  • We must pay for the total cost of war as we wage it, by ensuring that those who have borne the battle will have the support (education, healthcare, housing and otherwise) they have earned once they are veterans.

Seniors

Texas seniors have built the families, communities, and businesses we now enjoy. We owe it to them to honor and protect the commitment we made to care for them through Social Security and Medicare.

  • It is vital that we safeguard the benefits Texans have worked their entire lives to earn by protecting Social Security.
  • Improve access to healthcare for Seniors by exercising appropriate oversight over the Medicare program and decreasing waste by combatting fraud.
  • Ensuring prescription drug prices are affordable and eliminating the Two-Midnight rule and opposing the Government Pension Offset.

Veterans

Our veterans should receive the care and dignity they have earned. That begins with ensuring that every veteran can receive access to quality healthcare, timely resolutions to their disability claims and appeals, and sustainable housing.

  • 20 veterans a day take their own lives. Our top priority should be getting these veterans the help they need. Including those with other-than-honorable discharges.
  • Improve access to quality care both within and outside of the VA. Let’s empower the VA to deliver on the things it should do best – such as providing specialized mental healthcare and primary care and treating conditions unique to service and combat – and encourage it to recruit help from the community when necessary.
  • Improving claims and appeals response times so that Veterans can receive access to treatment and compensation for their injuries in a timely way.
  • Ensuring no veteran goes homeless.

Women's Health

Whether it be cervical cancer screenings, family planning help or potentially lifesaving prenatal care, we have made it indefensibly difficult for women to access reproductive healthcare. This is especially troubling given that Texas has one of the highest rates of maternal mortality in the developed world and it directly affects our communities of color.

We must take necessary steps toward improving women’s access to affordable and quality healthcare, which include:

  • Ensuring that a woman’s right to choose is not compromised by limited access to safe and legal abortion services or family planning help.
  • Expanding Medicaid and funding family planning centers in order to prevent another mother dying needlessly due to complications before or after childbirth.
  • Supporting policies that guarantee a woman’s access to birth control and emergency contraception.
  • Protecting the Title X Family Planning Program that ensure millions of low-income Americans can afford access to reproductive health services, such as cervical and breast cancer screenings and well-woman exams.[34]
—Beto for Texas[35]

Republican Party Ted Cruz[edit]

Proven Leader. Proven Record.

Ted Cruz understands the unique history of our state, and fights for our values every day in the U.S. Senate.

As our U.S. Senator, Cruz has consistently

  • Defended our Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms
  • Led the fight to stop amnesty, and championed creative solutions to fund the border security we need to keep us safe
  • Passed legislation to fund and guide NASA
  • Advocated for our military

Ted is consistently on the front line of the issues of the day and delivering for over 28 million Texans.

Most candidates run on a list of issues, but Ted has always run on his record. That record is consistent, conservative, and clear: Ted Cruz works for Texas.

Defending the Constitution

“Ted Cruz has been a tireless defender of the Constitution and the founding principles that have made this the greatest country the world has ever known.”

- Utah Senator Mike Lee

  • Fought to keep the US out of the UN Arms Treaty, which would have subordinated the Second Amendment rights of American citizens to global interests.
  • Called for a special prosecutor to investigate the IRS’s targeting of American citizens’ political activity.
  • Defended Americans’ First Amendment rights against Democrats who sought to limit freedom of expression.
  • Galvanized national support for Houston pastors targeted and forced by the City of Houston to submit religious sermons for political scrutiny.
  • Defended students’ right to display banners containing religious content at school sporting events.

Successfully defended the constitutionality of the Texas Ten Commandments monument, winning a 5-4 landmark decision before the U.S. Supreme Court.

  • Fought and won a landmark victory at the Supreme Court in Medellin v. Texas; protected U.S. sovereignty against 90 foreign nations and the president to ensure the United States is not subject to rulings of the “World Court.”
  • Defended Hobby Lobby and Conestoga Wood Specialties against Obamacare’s contraception mandate.
  • Fought to help the Boy Scouts of America reverse a district court ruling barring them from leasing a public park.

Jobs and Opportunity

  • The first bill Ted offered as a US Senator was to repeal every word of Obamacare.
  • Fought for Texas jobs by authoring the NASA Transition Authorization Act, which President Trump signed into law on March 21, 2017.
  • Authored legislation empowering greater private sector engagement in commercial space exploration that was signed into law by President Obama.
  • Sponsored Audit the Fed legislation.
  • Authored resolution, signed by President Trump, eliminating Obama-era rules that restricted Texas’ discretion over its unemployment insurance programs.
  • Proposed a tax plan to dramatically reduce taxes for American families and individuals, simplify the tax code and spur significant economic growth.
  • Mobilized a national effort to defund Obamacare and repeal the disastrous law in its entirety.
  • Introduced the American Energy Renaissance Act to open up energy exploration, expand Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports, end the crude oil export ban, that with other reforms unleashed job creation across the state of Texas.
  • Sponsored the Affordable Reliable Energy Now Act (ARENA), to check President Obama’s overreaching “Clean Power Plan” regulations that infringe on states’ rights, drive up costs for consumers and hamper innovation.
  • Fought against budget increases that failed to bring about meaningful spending reforms.
  • Opposed the Internet Sales Tax, and spoke against establishment politicians who attempt to impose more unnecessary taxes on Americans.

Limiting Washington's Power

  • Fought to protect citizens’ free speech against unlawful and unjust targeting and designations by the IRS.
  • Opposed budget increases that failed to bring about meaningful spending reforms.
  • Advocated for reforms to boost economic growth, including repealing Obamacare, deregulation, and expansion of energy production.
  • Opposed raising the debt ceiling without addressing out-of-control Washington spending.
  • Voted against establishment politicians’ Christmas handouts to K-Street.
  • Opposed sugar subsidies and favoring a few over the American taxpayer.
  • Voted to repeal the Renewable Fuel Standard so that all can compete on an equal footing.
  • Opposed budget deals that reauthorized the Export-Import bank, a handmaiden of the Washington Cartel.

Second Amendment

“Ted Cruz is one of our nation’s leading defenders of the Second Amendment. For over a decade, Ted has fought tirelessly to defend our constitutional right to keep and bear arms, and his leadership was absolutely critical to our major victories before the U.S. Supreme Court.” – NRA executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre

  • Led the fight in Congress to stop legislation that would restrict the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding Americans.
  • Authored legislation to strengthen citizens’ Second Amendment rights and allow interstate firearms sales.
  • Argued on behalf of 31 states in District of Columbia v. Heller where the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a ban on firearms in a 5-4 landmark decision.
  • Awarded the NRA’s 2010 Carter-Knight Freedom Fund, which “rewards exemplary activities in the support and protection of the right to Keep and Bear Arms” for his work in the Heller and McDonald

Securing the Border

“We have to have an advocate in Congress, which I believe is Ted Cruz.”

- Border Patrol Agent Brandon Judd President of the National Border Patrol Council

  • Introduced the EL CHAPO Act to direct funds forfeited after the conviction of drug cartel members to construction of a wall on the southern border of the United States.
  • Coalesced conservatives across the country to defeat the Gang of Eight bill that failed to secure the border and would have granted amnesty to millions who came to the United States illegally.
  • During the Gang of Eight fight, offered a series of amendments, including measures to prevent citizenship for those here illegally, to block illegals’ access to federal, state, or local public assistance benefits, secure the border, triple the size of the Border Patrol, and implement a biometric entry-exit system.
  • Introduced Kate’s Law to establish a 5-year minimum sentence for those who illegally reenter the country.
  • Introduced with Jeff Sessions the American Jobs First Act of 2015, to reform the H-1B visa program, curb abuse, and protect American workers.
  • Proposed a number of measures to defund President Obama’s amnesty and prevent him from expanding it.

Servicemen and Women

  • Fought on behalf of the men and women injured during the 2009 terror attack at Fort Hood asserting their eligibility to receive the Purple Heart.
  • Successfully advocated to bring an F-35 squadron to the Naval Air Station Joint Base Fort Worth.
  • Helped secure more than $224 million in military construction funds to rebuild Texas’ military infrastructure.
  • Added language to the Military Construction and Veterans’ Affairs Appropriations bill to require the VA Secretary to provide Congress with a plan to address the long wait times for veterans seeking health care at the South Texas Veterans Health Care System.
  • Introduced the North Korea State Sponsor of Terrorism Designation Act of 2017.
  • Authored legislation calling on the Secretary of State to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization.
  • Introduced the Terrorist Refugee Infiltration Prevention Act of 2015, barring refugees to the United States from any country that contains substantial territory controlled by a foreign terrorist organization.
  • Introduced the IRGC Terrorist Designation Act, calling on the U.S. Department of State to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization.
  • Called on Congress to take a three-step approach to stop the flow of funds to the Iranian regime under the terms of Corker-Cardin, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act.
  • Twice introduced the Sanction Iran, Safeguard America Act to reinstate, impose, and expand Iran sanctions.
  • Introduced legislation to prevent terrorists from entering the US as UN ambassadors. The bill passed Congress unanimously and President Obama signed it into law.
  • Twice introduced the Expatriate Terrorist Act, to prevent terrorists who join ISIS or other terrorist groups from re-entering the country, and to make clear that citizens who collaborate with terrorists forfeit their right to US citizenship.
  • Spoke up for our veterans by sponsoring the Department of Veterans Affairs Management Accountability Act, to make it easier for senior executives at the VA to be fired for negligence, mismanagement, and other performance failures.
  • Defended the crosses at the Mojave Desert Veterans Memorial from ACLU attempts to have them removed.
  • Authored legislative language that provides for concept development of a space-based missile defense system to defend against the full spectrum of ballistic missile threats.

Standing with Israel

“Since arriving in Washington four years ago, Cruz has arguably been Israel’s most avid defender in the Senate.”

Caroline B Glick The Jerusalem Post

  • Co-sponsored legislation to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

Introduced measure to provide necessary funding for Israel’s missile defense, Arrow System, David’s Sling and Iron Dome.

  • Chaired a hearing for the Subcommittee on Oversight, Agency Action, Federal Rights and Federal Courts titled “Justice Forsaken: How the Federal Government Fails the American Victims of Iranian and Palestinian Terrorism” focused on the federal government’s failure to support the American victims of Iranian and Palestinian terrorism.
  • Twice introduced legislation to prohibit negotiations between the United States and Iran until Iran released the American prisoners it is unjustly detaining and recognizes Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state.
  • Introduced a resolution passed by Congress to condemn Hamas’ use of civilians as human shields.
  • Introduced legislation passed by the Senate to offer rewards to those who handed in information about the kidnappers and murderers of the 3 boys who were murdered in Jerusalem, one of them being an Israeli-US citizen.
  • Brought national attention to the FAA ban on flights into Ben Gurion airport and asked if they the ban was being imposed as a form of economic sanction on Israel. Due in large part to the public pressure brought by Ted Cruz, the ban was lifted.
  • Supports Israel’s Iron Dome program, which in defending Israel also protects US security interests.

Texas Values

“Since Ted Cruz was elected to the U.S. Senate, he has done everything he said he’d do for Texans, and more.”

–Texas Governor Greg Abbott

  • Fought to take away taxpayer dollars from Planned Parenthood.
  • Led the way to preserve the words “under God” in the Pledge of Allegiance at the U.S. Supreme Court.
  • Successfully defended the words “under God” in the Texas Pledge of Allegiance and Texas schools’ moment of silence law in federal district court.
  • Successfully defended the constitutionality of the Texas Ten Commandments monument, winning a 5-4 landmark decision before the U.S. Supreme Court.
  • Defended Texas’s marriage laws when a state court attempted to recognize a Vermont civil union.
  • Successfully defended Texas’s Rider 8, which prohibits state funds for groups that provide abortions.
  • Galvanized national support for Houston pastors who had been subpoenaed by the City of Houston and forced to turn in their sermons.
  • Supported students’ right to display banners containing religious content at school sporting events.
  • Led the charge on behalf of 13 states to successfully defend a federal law that bans partial birth abortion before the U.S. Supreme Court.
  • Advocated for an investigation into abortion practices in the U.S. to prevent the atrocities witnessed in Kermit Gosnell’s facility from ever happening again.
  • Joined 18 states in successfully defending the New Hampshire parental-notification law before the U.S. Supreme Court.
  • Authored legislation and a constitutional amendment in the Senate to prevent federal courts from further interfering with any state’s authority to define marriage.
  • Introduced legislation to protect the right of states to define marriage, without intrusion by unelected federal judges.
  • Introduced measures in Congress to protect service members’ right to worship.[34]
—Ted Cruz for Senate[36]

Social media[edit]

Twitter accounts[edit]

Facebook accounts[edit]

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Beto O'Rourke Facebook

Republican Party Ted Cruz Facebook

Timeline[edit]

  • October 29, 2018: In a Quinnipiac University poll of 1,078 likely voters, Cruz led O'Rourke by 5 percentage points, 51 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.
  • October 26, 2018: The anti-Cruz super PAC Texas Forever made a $1.2 million advertising buy in the Dallas-Fort Worth market focused on Cruz's healthcare policy.[23]
  • October 22, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) held a rally for Cruz in Houston.[37]
  • October 16, 2018:
    • Cruz led O'Rourke by 7 percentage points, 52 percent to 45 percent, in a CNN/SRSS poll of 716 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
    • Cruz and O'Rourke debated at the studios of KENS 5 in San Antonio. The candidates discussed the government shutdown, border security, and the Trump administration, among other issues.
  • October 15, 2018: Cruz led O'Rourke by 9 percentage points, 52 percent to 43 percent, in a WPA Intelligence poll of 801 likely voters. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
  • October 12, 2018: O’Rourke announced that he had raised $38 million in the third quarter of 2018, setting the record for the most money raised in a single quarter by a U.S. Senate candidate. The O’Rourke campaign said there were more than 802,000 individual contributions and that the majority of the fundraising came from Texas. Cruz raised $12 million in the same time period, bringing in more than double what he had raised in the second quarter of 2018.[38]
  • October 10, 2018: In three public opinion polls released in the first two weeks of October, Cruz led O'Rourke by a margin of 5 to 9 percentage points.
  • October 2, 2018: The Cruz campaign released an opposition ad highlighting comments O'Rourke made critical of the criminal justice system.
  • September 18, 2018: Quinnipiac University released a poll of 807 likely voters finding Cruz ahead of O'Rourke by a margin of 9 points, 54 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 4.1 percent.[39]
  • September 13, 2018: Texans Are spent $605,000 on campaign ads opposing O'Rourke.[40]
  • September 4, 2018: Club for Growth spent at least $200,000 on an ad criticizing O'Rourke for his 2006 support of a development project that involved his developer father-in-law, Bill Sanders, when he served on the El Paso City Council.[41]
  • August 31, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) tweeted that he planned to hold a rally in Texas in October to support Cruz's campaign.[42]
  • August 22, 2018: Cruz led O'Rourke by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, in an NBC News/Marist poll of 759 registered voters. The margin of error was 3.8 percent.[43]
  • August 13, 2018: The O'Rourke campaign announced that it had made a $1.3 million media buy in 20 Texas markets.[44]
  • August 3, 2018: Cruz released his first television ads of the campaign season: one presents O'Rourke as extremist and reckless and the other highlights Cruz's work on Hurricane Harvey relief.[45]
  • July 17, 2018: O'Rouke said he would vote to impeach President Donald Trump (R). "Impeachment, much like an indictment, shows that there is enough there for the case to proceed and at this point there is certainly enough there for the case to proceed," he said. A Cruz spokesperson responded, "O'Rourke's extremist views on impeaching the President of the United States put him in the fringe of the liberal movement—even to the left of Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren."[46]
  • July 12, 2018: In the second quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised more than Cruz, $10.4 million to $4.6 million. O'Rourke also had more cash on hand with $14 million to Cruz's $10.4 million.[47]

Other 2018 statewide elections[edit]

See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

2016 Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties and Congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties

Texas featured one congressional district that intersects with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.

The 206 Pivot Counties were located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties was more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that had at least one Pivot County, 63 percent were held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[48]

Election history[edit]

2014[edit]

U.S. Senate, Texas General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Cornyn Incumbent 61.6% 2,861,531
     Democratic David Alameel 34.4% 1,597,387
     Libertarian Rebecca Paddock 2.9% 133,751
     Green Emily Marie Sanchez 1.2% 54,701
     Write-in Mohammed Tahiro 0% 988
Total Votes 4,648,358
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics"

2012[edit]

U.S. Senate, Texas General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngTed Cruz 56.5% 4,440,137
     Democratic Paul Sadler 40.6% 3,194,927
     Libertarian John Jay Myers 2.1% 162,354
     Green David B. Collins 0.9% 67,404
Total Votes 7,864,822
Source: Texas Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Wave election analysis[edit]

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year President Party Election type Senate seats change Senate majority[49]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -13 D (flipped)
1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -12 D
1946 Truman D First midterm -10 R (flipped)
1980 Carter D Presidential -9 R (flipped)
2014 Obama D Second midterm -9 R (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -8 D
2008 George W. Bush D Presidential -8 D
1926 Coolidge R First midterm[50] -7 R
1930 Hoover R First midterm -7 R
1986 Reagan R Second midterm -7 D (flipped)

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Texas heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

State executives[edit]

State legislature[edit]

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Texas State Legislature. They had a 93-55 majority in the state House and a 21-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

  • Texas was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Texas elections, 2018

Texas held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics[edit]

Demographic data for Texas
 TexasU.S.
Total population:27,429,639316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):261,2323,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:74.9%73.6%
Black/African American:11.9%12.6%
Asian:4.2%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:38.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:81.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$53,207$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Texas had a population of approximately 27,862,596 people, and its three largest cities were Houston (pop. est. 2.3 million), San Antonio (pop. est. 1.5 million), and Dallas (pop. est. 1.3 million).[51][52]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Texas from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Texas every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Texas 2000-2016[53][54]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 52.23% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 43.24% 8.99%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 57.17% Democratic Party Barack Obama 41.38% 15.79%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 55.45% Democratic Party Barack Obama 43.68% 11.77%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 61.09% Democratic Party John Kerry 38.22% 22.87%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 59.30% Democratic Party Al Gore 37.98% 21.32%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Texas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Texas 2000-2016[55]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014[56] Republican Party John Cornyn 61.56% Democratic Party David Alameel 34.36% 27.20%
2012[57] Republican Party Ted Cruz 56.46% Democratic Party Paul Sadler 40.62% 15.84%
2008[58] Republican Party John Cornyn 54.82% Democratic Party Richard Noriega 42.84% 11.98%
2006[59] Republican Party Kay Bailey Hutchison 61.69% Democratic Party Barbara Ann Radnofsky 36.04% 25.65%
2002[60] Republican Party John Cornyn 55.30% Democratic Party Ron Kirk 43.33% 11.97%
2000[61] Republican Party Kay Bailey Hutchison 65.04% Democratic Party Gene Kelly 32.35% 32.69%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2014[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2014. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Texas.

Election results (Governor), Texas 2000-2016[62]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Greg Abbott 59.27% Democratic Party Wendy Davis 38.90% 20.37%
2010 Republican Party Rick Perry 54.97% Democratic Party Bill White 42.30% 12.67%
2006 Republican Party Rick Perry 39.03% Democratic Party Chris Bell 29.79% 9.24%
2002 Republican Party Rick Perry 57.81% Democratic Party Tony Sanchez 39.96% 17.85%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Texas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Texas 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 25 69.4% Democratic Party 11 30.6% R+14
2014 Republican Party 25 69.4% Democratic Party 11 30.6% R+14
2012 Republican Party 24 66.7% Democratic Party 12 33.3% R+12
2010 Republican Party 23 71.9% Democratic Party 9 28.1% R+14
2008 Republican Party 20 62.5% Democratic Party 12 37.5% R+8
2006 Republican Party 19 59.4% Democratic Party 13 40.6% R+6
2004 Republican Party 21 65.6% Democratic Party 11 34.4% R+10
2002 Republican Party 15 46.9% Democratic Party 17 53.1% D+2
2000 Republican Party 13 43.3% Democratic Party 17 56.7% D+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Texas Party Control: 1992-2021
Three years of Democratic trifectas  •  Nineteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also[edit]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. https://www.newsweek.com/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-texas-midterms-trump-1053173 Newsweek, "TEXAS ‘BLUE WAVE’ COULD TAKE DOWN TED CRUZ AND DEAL BIG BLOW TO DONALD TRUMP, POLLS INDICATE," August 1, 2018]
  2. 2.0 2.1 2.2 Beto for Senate, "About Beto," accessed September 10, 2018
  3. National Journal, "Texas, 16th House District: Beto O'Rourke (D)," November 7, 2012
  4. The New York Times, "Beto O’Rourke Dreams of One Texas. Ted Cruz Sees Another Clearly," August 31, 2018
  5. 5.0 5.1 YouTube, "Beto O'Rourke's Fight To Take Down Ted Cruz," March 6, 2018
  6. Texas Monthly, "Does Beto O’Rourke Stand a Chance Against Ted Cruz?" accessed September 10, 2018
  7. El Paso Times, "El Paso VA Health Care System breaks ground for new mental health clinic," August 15, 2018
  8. Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress, "Rafael Edward (Ted) Cruz," accessed May 16, 2018
  9. KVIA, "AP Analysis: Ted Cruz runs for re-election as though it's still 2016," April 16, 2018
  10. Ted Cruz for Senate, "Texas Values," accessed September 10, 2018
  11. Ted Cruz for Senate, "Proven Leader," accessed September 10, 2018
  12. Twitter, "Patrick Svitek," August 3, 2018
  13. Neal Dikeman, "Neal's Bio," accessed November 1, 2018
  14. 14.0 14.1 14.2 Neal Dikeman, "About Neal," accessed November 1, 2018
  15. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  16. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  17. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  18. Washington Examiner, "Club for Growth earmarks 'seven figures' to defend Ted Cruz from Beto O'Rourke," August 29, 2018
  19. 19.0 19.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/1," October 1, 2018
  20. FEC, "FILING FEC-1266108," accessed October 11, 2018
  21. Texas Tribune, "Cruz allies ramp up for November TV battle with O'Rourke," August 9, 2018
  22. FEC, "FILING FEC-1260298," accessed September 10, 2018
  23. 23.0 23.1 Dallas News, "Ted Cruz says super PAC spending $1.2 million on anti-Cruz ads is 'saying things they know are lies,'" October 26, 2018
  24. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  25. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  26. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  27. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  28. 28.0 28.1 Houston Chronicle, "Ted Cruz seizes on Beto O’Rourke’s willingness to consider abolishing ICE," July 6, 2018
  29. New York Times, "Kavanaugh Is Sworn In After Close Confirmation Vote in Senate Video," October 6, 2018
  30. Ted Cruz, "Sen. Cruz: The Right Decision Is to Confirm Judge Kavanaugh as Justice Kavanaugh," October 5, 2018
  31. MSNBC, "GOP tries to energize base. TRANSCRIPT: 10/9/2018, All In w Chris Hayes," October 9, 2018
  32. Texas Tribune, "Beto O’Rourke swings harder at Ted Cruz in second debate," October 16, 2018
  33. Texas Tribune, "Watch Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke in first Senate debate," September 22, 2018
  34. 34.0 34.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  35. Beto for Texas, "Issues," accessed September 10, 2018
  36. Ted Cruz for Senate, "Proven Leader," accessed September 10, 2018
  37. Dallas Morning News, "Trump sets 'major rally' with Ted Cruz for Houston on Oct. 22 at arena that seats 8,000," October 16, 2018
  38. CNN, "Beto O'Rourke smashes record, raises $38.1 million in three months," October 12, 2018
  39. Quinnipiac University, "Cruz Has 9-Point Likely Voter Lead In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump Gets A Split 49 - 49 Percent Job Approval Score," September 18, 2018
  40. FEC, "FILING FEC-1261136," accessed September 21, 2018
  41. Texas Tribune, "Cruz allies take aim at O'Rourke over eminent domain, father-in-law," September 4, 2018
  42. CBS News, "Trump to campaign for former rival Ted Cruz, with Texas Senate race too close for comfort for GOP," August 31, 2018
  43. NBC News, "Poll: Democrat O'Rourke trails Ted Cruz by just 4 percentage points in Texas," August 22, 2018
  44. Texas Tribune, "Beto O’Rourke says he'll start airing TV ads with money raised off Ted Cruz’s attack ads," August 13, 2018
  45. Texas Tribune, "Ted Cruz releases first TV ads of 2018, including 3 attacking Beto O'Rourke," August 3, 2018
  46. Houston Chronicle, "Ted Cruz attacks Beto O'Rourke over talk of Trump impeachment," July 17, 2018
  47. Vox, "Beto O’Rourke is blowing Ted Cruz out of the water in fundraising," July 12, 2018
  48. The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  49. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  50. Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
  51. United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Texas," accessed December 12, 2017
  52. United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Houston; San Antonio; Dallas," accessed December 13, 2017
  53. Federal Election Commission, "2012 Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
  54. Federal Election Commission, "Official 2016 Presidential General Election Results," January 30, 2017
  55. Federal Election Commission, "Federal Elections 2014: Election Results for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
  56. Federal Election Commission, "2014 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  57. Federal Election Commission, "2012 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  58. Federal Election Commission, "2008 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  59. Federal Election Commission, "2006 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  60. Federal Election Commission, "2002 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  61. Federal Election Commission, "2000 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
  62. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Texas Election Results," accessed December 13, 2017



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
District 30
District 31
District 32
District 33
District 34
District 35
District 36
District 37
Vacant
District 38
Vacant
Republican Party (25)
Democratic Party (13)
Vacancies (2)


Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 | Original source: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2018
Status: cached on November 18 2021 16:36:11
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