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U.S. Senate, West Virginia |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: January 27, 2018 |
Primary: May 8, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Joe Manchin III (Democrat) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Voting in West Virginia |
Race ratings |
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd West Virginia elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Incumbent Joe Manchin III (D) defeated state attorney general Patrick Morrisey (R) and petroleum engineer Rusty Hollen (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent West Virginia in the United States Senate.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Election forecasters considered Manchin to be among the most vulnerable incumbents in the U.S. Senate. Manchin was among 10 Democratic members of the U.S. Senate seeking re-election in 2018 from a state carried by Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump's 42 percent margin of victory over Hillary Clinton (D) in West Virginia was his second-largest nationwide. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.[1]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Incumbent Joe Manchin III defeated Patrick Morrisey and Rusty Hollen in the general election for U.S. Senate West Virginia on November 6, 2018.
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
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✔ |
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Joe Manchin III (D) |
49.6
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290,510 |
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Patrick Morrisey (R) |
46.3
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271,113 | |
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Rusty Hollen (L) |
4.2
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24,411 |
Total votes: 586,034 (100.00% precincts reporting) |
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Incumbent Joe Manchin III defeated Paula Jean Swearengin in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate West Virginia on May 8, 2018.
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
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✔ |
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Joe Manchin III |
69.9
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112,658 |
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Paula Jean Swearengin |
30.1
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48,594 |
Total votes: 161,252 | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate West Virginia on May 8, 2018.
Candidate |
% |
Votes |
||
✔ |
|
Patrick Morrisey |
34.9
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48,007 |
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Evan Jenkins |
29.2
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40,185 | |
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Don Blankenship |
20.0
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27,478 | |
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Tom Willis |
9.8
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13,540 | |
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Bo Copley |
3.1
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4,248 | |
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Jack Newbrough |
3.0
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4,115 |
Total votes: 137,573 | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: U.S. Senator (Assumed office: 2010), Governor of West Virginia (2004-2010), West Virginia Secretary of State (2000-2004), West Virginia State Senator (1986-1996), West Virginia State Delegate (1982-1986)
Biography: Manchin was first elected to the state House of Delegates 12 years after his graduation from West Virginia University in 1970. He served in the state Legislature for 14 years before unsuccessfully seeking the Democratic nomination for governor in the 1996 election. He was elected secretary of state in 2000 and governor in 2004, and succeeded to the U.S. Senate seat formerly held by Robert Byrd (D) in a special election in 2010.
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: Attorney General of West Virginia (Assumed office: 2013)
Biography: Prior to his election as state attorney general, Morrisey worked as an attorney specializing in health care law, where he assisted in legal challenges to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Morrisey also served as deputy staff director and chief health counsel to the U.S. House's Energy and Commerce Committee.
Party: Libertarian
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: After his graduation from high school, Hollen joined the U.S. Army National Guard, where he served in the Military Police Corps for six years. While serving in the National Guard, Hollen trained as a petroleum engineer, a role he worked in at the time of the 2018 election.
U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
Emerson College (October 28-31, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 42% | 11% | +/-3.2 | 1,013 | |||||||||||||
Research America (October 19-30, 2018) | The Metro News The Dominion Post | 45% | 40% | 16% | +/-4.9 | 400 | |||||||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (October 16-18, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 42% | 44% | 15% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||
PopPolling Research (October 13-15, 2018) | N/A | 53% | 47% | 0% | +/-3.5 | 789 | |||||||||||||
Strategic Research Associates, LLC (October 12-19, 2018) | Gray Television | 52% | 36% | 12% | +/-3.8 | 650 | |||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
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This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Manchin III | Democratic Party | $8,420,592 | $7,802,323 | $2,290,829 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Patrick Morrisey | Republican Party | $6,200,877 | $6,153,109 | $47,768 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Rusty Hollen | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," .
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[15][16][17]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[26][27][28]
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, 2018 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | Tilt Democratic | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes links to endorsement lists published on campaign websites, if available. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.
Noteworthy general election endorsements | ||||||
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Endorsement | Manchin | Morrisey | ||||
Newspapers and editorials | ||||||
The Sunday News-Register[29] | ✔ | |||||
Elected officials | ||||||
President Donald Trump (R)[30] | ✔ | |||||
Sen. Ted Cruz (R)[31] | ✔ | |||||
Sen. Rand Paul (R)[32] | ✔ | |||||
Organizations | ||||||
National Rifle Association[33] | ✔ | |||||
United Mine Workers of America[34] | ✔ | |||||
West Virginia AFL-CIO[35] | ✔ |
Click [show] to view endorsements issued to candidates in the Republican primary. | |||
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Click here for older updates.
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
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On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.[43]
Manchin voted in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation on October 6, 2018. Manchin released a statement the day before the vote, saying, "I have found Judge Kavanaugh to be a qualified jurist who will follow the Constitution and determine cases based on the legal findings before him...I voted to confirm Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to serve on the Supreme Court because I believe he will rule in a manner that is consistent with our Constitution."[44]
Morrisey said that he supported Kavanaugh's nomination to the Court, saying in a press release that "President Donald Trump continues to fulfill the promises he made to the American people by nominating Judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve on the U.S. Supreme Court. Judge Kavanaugh is a firm defender of the Constitution and is a highly-qualified jurist with impeccable credentials."[45]
President Donald Trump (R) made three campaign appearances on behalf of Morrisey.
President Trump headlined a rally in Huntington on November 2, 2018.[46]
On September 29, 2018, President Trump headlined a rally in Wheeling.[47]
On August 21, 2018, President Trump headlined a rally in Charleston where he reaffirmed his endorsement of Morrisey and urged voters to support him, saying, "He needs you, he needs all of you to go out there to be warriors and deputies for him. He can win this. This man needs it."[48][49]
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) appeared alongside Morrisey at a campaign event on October 18, 2018, where he praised Morrisey's positions on healthcare and Obama-era regulations related to energy.[50]
Donald Trump Jr. made a campaign appearance alongside Morrisey on October 22, 2018. At the event, he called on the president's supporters to vote for Morrisey: "We need people to turn out...Donald Trump is on the ticket in two weeks. Make no bones about it. If you're going to vote for him in 2020, get out and vote for him in two weeks."[51]
Manchin's campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Jobs Now, as a United States Senator, he continues fighting to grow career opportunities for the people of West Virginia. His work has helped lure major companies to The Mountain State. Joe is committed to building up our state’s workforce by ensuring that West Virginians have the education and skills to be globally competitive and the chance to launch a successful career right here in West Virginia. America’s infrastructure is deteriorating, and too many roads and bridges in West Virginia are falling apart. Joe wants to put West Virginians to work updating and modernizing infrastructure. Security He has worked with both Democrats and Republicans to tighten sanctions against Russia, North Korea, and Iran and form a Congressional Review process to keep strong and effective sanctions in place. Additionally, Joe was the first Democrat to cosponsor the Taylor Force Act, which put pressure on the Palestinian Authority to stop making payments to individuals who committed terrorist actions against Israel. Broadband Drug Epidemic Senator Manchin has fought to ensure that there is funding for substance use disorder treatment, pushed for medical professionals to have the information that they need to properly prescribe opioids given the risks of addiction, and worked to bring money to the state to help reduce drug trafficking and support law enforcement efforts. He worked to get federal agencies like the FDA to change their cultures and take the opioid epidemic seriously. Joe led the charge against confirming the original nominee for Drug Czar, who had a record of helping the big drug companies flood our neighborhoods with pain pills. He wants to make sure the DEA has the oversight ability to crack down on suspicious pill shipments coming into our communities. Seniors Veterans In just the past year, Joe helped pass legislation that ensured all Purple Heart recipients receive full GI Benefits, helped remove onerous regulations that prohibited critical information sharing between VA and community health providers, and fought to keep the Veterans Upward Bound Program at local colleges funded. In 2017, Joe introduced the Honoring Investments in Recruiting and Employing (HIRE) Veterans Act and it became law with bipartisan support. Joe believes that if you want to help a vet, you have to hire a vet. This is why in 2013, he co-founded the Congressional Veterans Jobs Caucus. Since the caucus’ inception, veterans unemployment rates have consistently dropped, and in September 2017, it hit the lowest rate since 2001. While we celebrate this accomplishment, Joe is still fighting everyday to make sure that our service members have a job when they come home. Energy Joe is working to bring a natural gas storage hub to West Virginia that can capitalize on the wet gas in the Ohio River Valley. A storage hub has the potential to significantly spur economic growth across the Appalachian region, and given West Virginia’s geographic location, establishing a local hub has the added benefit of strengthening America’s national security. Coal Miners Manchin championed the Miners Protection Act to save health care for coal miners, and In 2017, he successfully secured permanent funding for healthcare benefits for 22,600 miners and their families. Joe is working to guarantee the promised pension benefits our coal miners earned by taking the lead on passing the American Miners Pension Act. Education Joe wants to make sure we have a qualified teacher in every classroom and that all of our schools have the resources to give students every opportunity to achieve their dreams. In the Senate, he worked in a bipartisan manner to strengthen our K-12 education system and return control of our children’s education to our local communities. He believes that pursuing a college education should not leave students saddled with a mountain of debt, and will continue to work on bipartisan solutions to ease the burden of student loan debt. As governor, Manchin instituted a tuition freeze for the state’s colleges and universities from 2010-2011 to keep higher education affordable, and, as Senator, he led and passed a bipartisan bill to lower interest rates on federal student loans. Healthcare As a Senator, Joe has fought to protect people with pre-existing conditions, preserve access to substance use disorder treatment, and preserve health insurance coverage for hundreds of thousands of West Virginians. He will continue to work on bipartisan solutions that will lower costs and increase flexibility for West Virginians while promoting greater health education and personal responsibility to ensure that every West Virginian has the resources and knowledge to live a healthy life. Taxes Senator Manchin has always supported all-inclusive tax reform, along the lines of the Reagan tax cuts, which did not add to the deficit immediately upon passage. As our governor, Joe Manchin cut the food tax to help working families living paycheck to paycheck and eliminated the state privilege tax on automobiles (the Welcome to West Virginia Tax). As a small business owner himself, Joe Manchin understands that government should be a partner — not an adversary — to businesses. As governor, Manchin lowered taxes for businesses from 9% to 6.5% and eliminated the business franchise tax. Under Manchin’s watch, a $235 million tax burden was removed from local businesses. The major difference between what Manchin accomplished as governor and what Washington Republicans just did is that Manchin didn’t cut Medicare and Social Security or destroy healthcare. Manchin's priority is the middle class. The Republicans in Washington made reckless moves, opposed by AARP, designed to cut Medicare and Social Security, which would be devastating to the people of West Virginia. There is no way Joe Manchin would ever support Washington gimmicks that would hurt West Virginia’s seniors. Joe Manchin is committed to protecting healthcare for West Virginia families. It's why he stood up for our rural hospitals and the 200,000 West Virginians that would lose healthcare coverage under the Republican plan.[52] |
” |
—Manchin for West Virginia[53] |
Morrisey's campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Fighting Substance Abuse
“Morrisey, who has taken a leadership role in the battle against substance abuse in West Virginia, is taking to the national stage to battle the problem.” (7/22/17)
“no state official has been more effective in the struggle against drug abuse” (10/15/16) In July, Attorney General Morrisey received widespread praise for forcing the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to change its opioid distribution quota rules: Weirton Daily Times Editorial: "Good for Morrisey... The attorney general deserves enormous credit." Martinsburg Journal News Editorial: "Thank Morrisey for prompting action the DEA should’ve taken in the first place." The Dominion Post: "DEA changes policy after Morrisey sues" Morrisey also significantly ramped up the state’s educational efforts to fight substance abuse, holding hundreds of seminars and public meetings to educate kids, community leaders, and seniors. He also formed the state’s first partnership between the U.S. Attorney’s office and the Attorney General’s to assist in the criminal prosectution of drug dealers. As U.S. Senator, Morrisey will work with local, state, and federal authorities to better coordinate law enforcement efforts between these groups. He will continue to promote cost-effective treatment options for patients and press for tougher sentences for drug kingpins and he will continue tackling the problem holistically in the U.S. Senate, from a supply, demand, and educational perspective. Morrisey understands the drug epidemic touches the lives of all West Virginians, and we must do more for those who need the treatment to get better in the head and in the heart, so all can live full and purpose-filled lives. Jobs and Economy As a result of President Trump’s tax cuts, West Virginia families are seeing more money in their pockets, unemployment rates continue to drop, and many hardworking West Virginians are receiving bonuses and pay raises. Not only has President Trump delivered for West Virginia taxpayers, West Virginia job creators are increasingly able to compete again on the global stage due to lower tax rates. Many have begun giving out bonuses and increased benefits to employees as a result of the Trump tax cuts. Morrisey believes that more must be done to protect the tax cuts, as Washington liberals have pledged to repeal the tax cuts. He knows we must also continue to simplify the tax code, and make tax cuts for individuals permanent. Unfortunately, Sen. Manchin voted no when President Trump and West Virginians asked him to cut taxes. Instead of helping President Trump, Joe Manchin sided with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer in opposing tax cuts for the American people. Burdensome Regulations West Virginia is still suffering from President Obama’s reckless regulatory policies and executive actions. Congress can help undo some of the damage by permanently repealing Obama’s onerous regulations. President Trump has cut more regulations in this short amount of time than even Ronald Reagan, which has helped many West Virginia job creators compete again. There’s more work to be done on rolling back Obama’s burdensome regulations and many liberals in Washington want to stop the efforts of President Trump. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey led the charge against many of Obama’s excessive and unconstitutional regulations. Morrisey’s efforts have been essential in protecting West Virginia jobs from the attacks of the federal government. Infrastructure Morrisey believes West Virginia must continue to invest in its infrastructure to meet the needs of its citizens and businesses. For West Virginia to reach its potential, it must improve its roads, bridges, dams, and high-speed internet capacity. As Attorney General, Morrisey reached a record-breaking settlement with Frontier Communications that required the company to invest $150 million into the state’s high-speed internet infrastructure. As U.S. Senator, he will promote the state and encourage new private sector companies to locate here. Fiscal Responsibility Growing up in a working-class family gave Morrisey an appreciation for how to stretch a dollar. As Attorney General, he has worked to protect taxpayer dollars, voluntarily returning over $40 million to the state general fund and state agencies. In 2016, Morrisey initiated the first-ever disability fraud unit in the Attorney General’s office, saving taxpayers over $11 million in alittle over two years. As U.S. Senator, Morrisey will work to promote additional federal-state partnerships to combat fraud, waste, and abuse. With the country’s debt spiraling out of control under President Obama, Morrisey wants to permanently curb Washington’s appetite for spending. Morrisey supports a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution to force Washington to balance its books just like West Virginia families do every day. Second Amendment Sen. Manchin’s failed record on the Second Amendment Manchin authored Obama's aggressive gun grab legislation, opposed constitutional carry in West Virginia, and sought to restrict and criminalize the private transfers of firearms between honest citizens. Joe Manchin has been no friend of the Second Amendment and West Virginia gun owners. Radical gun-control liberals like Hillary Clinton and Michael Bloomberg have spent millions of dollars supporting Manchin. Manchin has also expressed concerns about the Constitutional right to due process and has made derogatory remarks about NRA members. While West Virginia stood with a pro-Second Amendment leader like Donald Trump, Joe Manchin stood with the most anti-gun presidential candidates in American History, Hillary Clinton. The choice could not be more clear when it comes to West Virginians’ God-given right to protect themselves and their families. Far too often, Sen. Manchin has stood with the radical coastal elites who want to take away guns from law-abiding citizens. Meanwhile, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has led the charge to protect the Constitutional rights of West Virginians. Right to Life Patrick is 100 percent pro-life and has been endorsed by West Virginians for Life and the National Right To Life. Patrick helped lead the effort to pass the Pain-Capable law in West Virginia, and has called for the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Patrick has opposed all taxpayer funding of Planned Parenthood and was a leader in standing for religious liberty in the Hobby Lobby decision. Meanwhile, liberal Joe Manchin continues to vote to fund Planned Parenthood, has opposed pro-life judges, and voted for Hillary Clinton and her pro-abortion agenda. Energy National Security It is Morrisey’s fundamental belief that the United States has a deeply rooted moral responsibility to defend Israel’s right to exist. He will do everything in his power to defend the interest of our nations’ essential alliance. Illegal Immigration That is why Morrisey successfully filed suit against the Obama amnesty program and opposes sanctuary cities. Morrisey recently led a 10-state effort in support of President Trump’s anti-sanctuary city policy. Morrisey believes we need a comprehensive plan to tackle illegal immigration and protect our country, including more aggressive efforts to track the flow of visitors into our country; building a wall; establishing more thorough vetting of security risks, and pushing greater coordination between law enforcement agencies. Constitutional Conservative Values The U. S. Senate needs another constitutional conservative with the courage to defend the people’s rights against an expansive federal government. In the U. S. Senate, Morrisey will continue to ensure that no one – including the federal government – runs roughshod over West Virginia. Morrisey is a staunch advocate for religious freedom and was one of several Attorneys General to join the legal efforts supporting Hobby Lobby. Morrisey supports the nomination of conservative judges who will protect our constitutional rights and not legislate from the bench. Veterans Patrick Morrisey believes our Veterans and their families deserve the absolute best health care and benefits. The promises made to our Veterans must be kept, and Patrick is committed to standing up for the men and women who have served our country. Fighting for Our Seniors During his tenure as Attorney General, Morrisey stood strong for seniors, working to protect them from scams and consumer fraud. As U.S. Senator, Patrick Morrisey will look out for seniors and veterans and target government resources to those who need it most – this includes the many low-income West Virginians on fixed incomes who cannot afford changes to their retirement plans when they are enjoying their golden years. Health Care Term Limits |
” |
—Morrisey for Senate[54] |
Tweets by Joe Manchin Tweets by Patrick Morrisey
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Joe Manchin
There are no pivot counties in West Virginia. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won West Virginia with 68.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 26.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, West Virginia cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, West Virginia supported Democratic and Republican candidates for president equally. West Virginia favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in West Virginia. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[55][56]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won four out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won one out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 34.4 points. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 63 out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 31.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 46.8 points. |
2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
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District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | |
1 | 38.66% | 59.24% | R+20.6 | 25.73% | 70.07% | R+44.3 | |
2 | 43.53% | 53.67% | R+10.1 | 26.82% | 68.57% | R+41.8 | |
3 | 38.13% | 59.95% | R+21.8 | 31.23% | 61.44% | R+30.2 | |
4 | 34.84% | 62.82% | R+28 | 22.30% | 72.79% | R+50.5 | |
5 | 37.10% | 59.96% | R+22.9 | 21.34% | 72.50% | R+51.2 | |
6 | 24.34% | 73.40% | R+49.1 | 13.41% | 82.40% | R+69 | |
7 | 25.92% | 71.64% | R+45.7 | 15.48% | 79.75% | R+64.3 | |
8 | 31.00% | 67.36% | R+36.4 | 22.69% | 72.65% | R+50 | |
9 | 28.50% | 69.28% | R+40.8 | 16.29% | 79.48% | R+63.2 | |
10 | 35.08% | 63.29% | R+28.2 | 25.67% | 68.91% | R+43.2 | |
11 | 35.37% | 62.24% | R+26.9 | 21.70% | 73.73% | R+52 | |
12 | 32.85% | 64.70% | R+31.8 | 20.88% | 74.86% | R+54 | |
13 | 37.29% | 60.44% | R+23.2 | 22.25% | 73.24% | R+51 | |
14 | 36.92% | 60.40% | R+23.5 | 21.70% | 74.02% | R+52.3 | |
15 | 27.42% | 71.38% | R+44 | 24.68% | 70.30% | R+45.6 | |
16 | 45.42% | 52.58% | R+7.2 | 36.10% | 58.50% | R+22.4 | |
17 | 41.90% | 56.20% | R+14.3 | 36.22% | 57.71% | R+21.5 | |
18 | 33.21% | 65.14% | R+31.9 | 25.32% | 70.41% | R+45.1 | |
19 | 34.79% | 62.73% | R+27.9 | 20.73% | 75.06% | R+54.3 | |
20 | 28.25% | 69.59% | R+41.3 | 15.85% | 81.80% | R+66 | |
21 | 23.29% | 74.37% | R+51.1 | 11.15% | 86.60% | R+75.4 | |
22 | 30.74% | 66.68% | R+35.9 | 20.35% | 75.36% | R+55 | |
23 | 34.16% | 63.17% | R+29 | 21.99% | 73.31% | R+51.3 | |
24 | 28.83% | 68.78% | R+40 | 17.02% | 79.79% | R+62.8 | |
25 | 21.56% | 76.17% | R+54.6 | 14.28% | 82.66% | R+68.4 | |
26 | 35.91% | 62.18% | R+26.3 | 26.16% | 71.47% | R+45.3 | |
27 | 25.92% | 72.27% | R+46.4 | 21.03% | 75.08% | R+54.1 | |
28 | 26.07% | 71.78% | R+45.7 | 19.24% | 76.85% | R+57.6 | |
29 | 25.31% | 72.92% | R+47.6 | 18.95% | 77.36% | R+58.4 | |
30 | 39.04% | 59.30% | R+20.3 | 35.16% | 60.01% | R+24.9 | |
31 | 21.85% | 76.00% | R+54.1 | 15.19% | 81.82% | R+66.6 | |
32 | 36.36% | 61.52% | R+25.2 | 26.42% | 69.21% | R+42.8 | |
33 | 33.20% | 63.50% | R+30.3 | 18.96% | 76.87% | R+57.9 | |
34 | 41.41% | 56.61% | R+15.2 | 25.67% | 69.81% | R+44.1 | |
35 | 44.95% | 53.41% | R+8.5 | 41.19% | 53.74% | R+12.6 | |
36 | 43.56% | 54.69% | R+11.1 | 36.13% | 59.51% | R+23.4 | |
37 | 71.16% | 27.03% | D+44.1 | 64.48% | 30.08% | D+34.4 | |
38 | 33.64% | 64.92% | R+31.3 | 28.33% | 66.88% | R+38.6 | |
39 | 29.70% | 68.75% | R+39 | 23.71% | 72.37% | R+48.7 | |
40 | 28.91% | 69.53% | R+40.6 | 21.21% | 74.29% | R+53.1 | |
41 | 28.54% | 69.10% | R+40.6 | 18.43% | 77.35% | R+58.9 | |
42 | 36.07% | 61.44% | R+25.4 | 26.74% | 67.94% | R+41.2 | |
43 | 35.02% | 62.41% | R+27.4 | 25.26% | 69.66% | R+44.4 | |
44 | 32.49% | 64.18% | R+31.7 | 18.98% | 77.03% | R+58.1 | |
45 | 27.22% | 70.71% | R+43.5 | 20.32% | 74.67% | R+54.4 | |
46 | 27.10% | 70.21% | R+43.1 | 19.26% | 76.24% | R+57 | |
47 | 29.72% | 67.43% | R+37.7 | 19.50% | 75.68% | R+56.2 | |
48 | 37.03% | 60.90% | R+23.9 | 27.38% | 67.16% | R+39.8 | |
49 | 33.62% | 64.28% | R+30.7 | 23.59% | 71.48% | R+47.9 | |
50 | 41.91% | 55.61% | R+13.7 | 30.56% | 63.37% | R+32.8 | |
51 | 44.28% | 53.14% | R+8.9 | 41.29% | 50.56% | R+9.3 | |
52 | 28.11% | 69.35% | R+41.2 | 21.26% | 73.45% | R+52.2 | |
53 | 25.80% | 70.92% | R+45.1 | 19.48% | 75.52% | R+56 | |
54 | 17.22% | 80.84% | R+63.6 | 11.20% | 86.53% | R+75.3 | |
55 | 31.26% | 66.11% | R+34.8 | 22.04% | 74.29% | R+52.3 | |
56 | 28.78% | 68.67% | R+39.9 | 19.74% | 76.02% | R+56.3 | |
57 | 28.38% | 69.28% | R+40.9 | 18.00% | 78.03% | R+60 | |
58 | 31.07% | 66.90% | R+35.8 | 19.51% | 76.36% | R+56.9 | |
59 | 33.93% | 64.29% | R+30.4 | 23.17% | 72.02% | R+48.8 | |
60 | 31.11% | 66.98% | R+35.9 | 22.28% | 72.32% | R+50 | |
61 | 51.56% | 46.41% | D+5.2 | 42.57% | 51.91% | R+9.3 | |
62 | 35.57% | 62.29% | R+26.7 | 26.07% | 68.69% | R+42.6 | |
63 | 43.32% | 54.43% | R+11.1 | 34.17% | 60.32% | R+26.1 | |
64 | 34.54% | 63.40% | R+28.9 | 24.45% | 70.26% | R+45.8 | |
65 | 49.54% | 48.66% | D+0.9 | 40.64% | 52.92% | R+12.3 | |
66 | 39.60% | 58.18% | R+18.6 | 31.14% | 63.51% | R+32.4 | |
67 | 51.50% | 46.02% | D+5.5 | 45.92% | 48.19% | R+2.3 | |
Total | 35.54% | 62.30% | R+26.8 | 26.48% | 68.63% | R+42.2 | |
Source: Daily Kos |
U.S. Senate, West Virginia General Election, 2014 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Republican | Shelley Moore Capito | 62.1% | 281,820 | |
Democratic | Natalie Tennant | 34.5% | 156,360 | |
Libertarian | John Buckley | 1.6% | 7,409 | |
Constitution | Phil Hudok | 0.6% | 2,566 | |
Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 1.2% | 5,504 | |
N/A | Write-ins | 0% | 30 | |
Total Votes | 453,689 | |||
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics" |
U.S. Senate, West Virginia General Election, 2012 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Democratic | Joe Manchin III Incumbent | 60.6% | 399,898 | |
Republican | John R. Raese | 36.5% | 240,787 | |
Mountain | Bob Henry Baber | 3% | 19,517 | |
Total Votes | 660,202 | |||
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2012 Election Statistics" |
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[57] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped) | |
2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D | |
2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[58] | -7 | R | |
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped) |
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in West Virginia heading into the 2018 elections.
West Virginia held elections for the following positions in 2018:
Demographic data for West Virginia | ||
---|---|---|
West Virginia | U.S. | |
Total population: | 1,841,053 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 24,038 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 93.6% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 3.3% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 0.7% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 1.4% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 85% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 19.2% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $41,751 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 22.2% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in West Virginia. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, West Virginia's three largest cities were Charleston (pop. est. 49,138), Huntington (pop. est. 48,113), and Morgantown (pop. est. 30,855).[59]
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in West Virginia from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the West Virginia Secretary of State.
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in West Virginia every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), West Virginia 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | Donald Trump | 68.6% | Hillary Clinton | 26.5% | 42.1% |
2012 | Mitt Romney | 62.3% | Barack Obama | 35.5% | 26.8% |
2008 | John McCain | 55.7% | Barack Obama | 42.6% | 13.1% |
2004 | George W. Bush | 56.1% | John Kerry | 43.2% | 12.9% |
2000 | George W. Bush | 51.9% | Al Gore | 45.6% | 6.3% |
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in West Virginia from 2000 to 2014. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), West Virginia 2000-2014 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | Shelley Moore Capito | 62.1% | Natalie Tennant | 34.5% | 27.6% |
2012 | Joe Manchin III | 60.6% | John Raese | 36.5% | 24.1% |
2010 | Joe Manchin III | 53.5% | John Raese | 43.4% | 10.1% |
2008 | Jay Rockefeller | 63.7% | Matthew Wolfe | 36.3% | 27.4% |
2006 | Robert Byrd | 64.4% | John Raese | 33.7% | 30.7% |
2002 | Jay Rockefeller | 63.1% | Jay Wolfe | 36.9% | 26.2% |
2000 | Robert Byrd | 77.8% | David Gallaher | 20.2% | 57.6% |
This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in West Virginia.
Election results (Governor), West Virginia 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | Jim Justice[60] | 49.1% | Bill Cole | 42.3% | 6.8% |
2012 | Earl Ray Tomblin | 50.5% | Bill Maloney | 45.7% | 4.8% |
2011 (special election) | Earl Ray Tomblin | 49.6% | Bill Maloney | 47.1% | 2.5% |
2008 | Joe Manchin III | 69.8% | Russell Weeks | 25.7% | 44.1% |
2004 | Joe Manchin III | 63.5% | Monty Warner | 34.0% | 29.5% |
2000 | Bob Wise | 50.1% | Cecil Underwood | 47.2% | 2.9% |
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent West Virginia in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
West Virginia Party Control: 1992-2021
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas • Four years of Republican trifectas
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D[61] | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
|