Thirty-five U.S. Senate seats, including two in special elections, were up for election on November 6, 2018. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a 51-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats held 47 seats, and the remaining two seats were held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.
Five incumbents—four Democrats and one Republican—lost their seats in 2018. Following the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two and controlled 53 seats in the chamber, Democrats controlled 45 seats, and independents in Maine and Vermont who caucus with the Democrats held two seats.
On this page, Ballotpedia compiled the following resources about the U.S. Senate elections:
This page focuses mainly on general elections. For more in-depth information on the Democratic and Republican primaries by state, see the following pages.
United States Senate Democratic Party primaries, 2018
United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2018
Democrats were defending 26 of the 35 seats up for re-election, making it difficult for them to add the two seats necessary to wrest majority control from the Republicans. This situation occurs occasionally. To read more about how a disproportion in the number of seats up for election impacted partisan risk in the 2016 elections, click here.
Republicans won Democratic seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while Democrats won Republican seats in Arizona and Nevada. Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate in the 116th Congress.
Incumbents ran for re-election in 32 of 35 races. Five incumbent U.S. senators were defeated—four Democrats and one Republican. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, while Republicans had to defend just one seat in a state won by Clinton. All five of the incumbents who lost in 2018 were from those 11 states:
This table shows the results of the U.S. Senate elections on November 6, 2018. Of the 35 seats up for election, Democrats won 22 seats, Republicans won 11 seats, and two seats were won by independents who caucus with the Democrats. In 2018, Republicans had a net gain of two seats and controlled 53 seats at the beginning of the 116th Congress.
The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100 percent. Some quick facts:
The Democratic Party faced greater partisan risk in regular Senate elections in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Additionally, the Democratic Party had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Republicans defended just one Senate seat in a state won by Clinton—Nevada.
Three incumbent senators, all Republicans, did not seek re-election in 2018: Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.), Sen. Jeff Flake (Ariz.), and Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah).
Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 6, 2018, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2019.
In the 2016 elections, the Republican Party lost two seats but maintained its Senate majority. Heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate with 51 Senate seats, Democrats had 47 Senate seats, and two seats were held by independents who caused with the Democratic Party. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two seats.
U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
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Party | As of November 5, 2018 | After the 2018 Election | |
Democratic Party | 47 | 45 | |
Republican Party | 51 | 53 | |
Independent | 2 | 2 | |
Vacancies | 0 | 0 | |
Total | 100 | 100 |
Click here to learn more about the history of partisan control of the U.S. Senate from 2000 to 2018. | |||
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Including the two special elections, there were 24 Democratic seats, nine Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party needed to pick up two seats in the Senate in 2018 to regain the majority they lost in 2014. This was unlikely as there were so few Republican seats up for election.[2]
Click here for more of Ballotpedia's coverage of U.S. Senate battleground races in 2018.
The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.
Results of United States Senate battlegrounds, 2018 | ||||
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State | Incumbent | Winner | Partisan change | Incumbent status |
Arizona | Jeff Flake | Kyrsten Sinema | Yes | Incumbent didn't seek re-election |
California | Dianne Feinstein | Dianne Feinstein | No | Won |
Florida | Bill Nelson | Rick Scott | Yes | Lost |
Indiana | Joe Donnelly | Mike Braun | Yes | Lost |
Minnesota (special) | Tina Smith | Tina Smith | No | Won |
Missouri | Claire McCaskill | Josh Hawley | Yes | Lost |
Mississippi (special) | Cindy Hyde-Smith | Cindy Hyde-Smith | No | Won |
Montana | Jon Tester | Jon Tester | No | Won |
North Dakota | Heidi Heitkamp | Kevin Cramer | Yes | Lost |
New Jersey | Bob Menendez | Bob Menendez | No | Won |
New Mexico | Martin Heinrich | Martin Heinrich | No | Won |
Nevada | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Yes | Lost |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Sherrod Brown | No | Won |
Tennessee | Bob Corker | Marsha Blackburn | No | Incumbent didn't seek re-election |
Texas | Ted Cruz | Ted Cruz | No | Won |
West Virginia | Joe Manchin | Joe Manchin | No | Won |
The following tabs feature the most recent polls in battleground Senate races in 2018.
U.S. Senate election in Arizona, General election: Sinema vs. McSally | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Sinema | McSally | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights November 2-3, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 49% | 3% | +/-3.9 | 631 | |||||||||||||
Trafalgar Group October 30-November 1, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 47% | 3% | +/-2.1 | 2,166 | |||||||||||||
Vox Populi Polling October 27-30, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 48% | 0% | +/-3.7 | 677 | |||||||||||||
Fox News October 27-29, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 46% | 8% | +/-3.5 | 643 | |||||||||||||
CNN/SSRS October 24-29, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 47% | 2% | +/-4.4 | 702 | |||||||||||||
HighGround Public Affairs October 26-28, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 47% | 9% | +/-4.9 | 400 | |||||||||||||
NBC News/Marist October 23-27, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 44% | 6% | +/-5.4 | 506 | |||||||||||||
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 17-26, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 48% | 6% | +/-4.0 | 799 | |||||||||||||
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights October 22-23, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 52% | 3% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 48.11% | 47.56% | 4.44% | +/-3.99 | 791.56 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Click [show] to see older poll results | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Senate election in California, General election | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Feinstein (D) | De León (D) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||||
SurveyUSA November 1-2, 2018 | 50% | 36% | 14% | +/-4.7 | 1,200 | ||||||||||||||
Berkeley IGS October 19-26, 2018 | 45% | 36% | 19% | +/-4.0 | 1,339 | ||||||||||||||
Probolsky Research October 25-30, 2018 | 41% | 35% | 24% | +/-3.3 | 900 | ||||||||||||||
Public Policy Institute of California October 12-21, 2018 | 43% | 27% | 31% | +/-3.3 | 1,704 | ||||||||||||||
Probolsky Research August 29-September 2, 2018 | 37% | 29% | 34% | +/-3.3 | 900 | ||||||||||||||
The Public Policy Institute of California July 8-17, 2018 | 46% | 24% | 9% | +/-3.4 | 1,711 | ||||||||||||||
LA Times June 6-17, 2018 | 36% | 18% | 46% | +/-4.0 | 893 | ||||||||||||||
Probolsky Research April 16-18, 2018 | 38% | 27% | 35% | +/-3.3 | 900 | ||||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
Click [show] to see poll results from the top-two primary | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Nelson | Scott | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
St. Pete Polls November 3-4, 2018 | FloridaPolitics.com | 50% | 46% | 4% | +/-1.8 | 3,088 | |||||||||||||
Quinnipiac University October 29-November 4, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 44% | 5% | +/-3.5 | 1,142 | |||||||||||||
St. Pete Polls November 1-2, 2018 | FloridaPolitics.com | 48% | 49% | 3% | +/-1.9 | 2,733 | |||||||||||||
Marist College October 30-November 2, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 46% | 4% | +/-5.0 | 595 | |||||||||||||
Gravis Marketing October 29-November 2, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 46% | 6% | +/-3.6 | 753 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 49.4% | 46.2% | 4.4% | +/-3.16 | 1,662.2 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Click [show] to see older poll results | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Senate election in Indiana, Donnelly vs. Braun | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Donnelly | Braun | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) October 27-30, 2018 | Fox News | 45% | 38% | 17% | +/-3.5 | 722 | |||||||||||||
Marist University October 24-28, 2018 | NBC News | 45% | 42% | 13% | +/-5.5 | 496 | |||||||||||||
Cygnal October 26-27, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 49% | 5% | +/-4.36 | 505 | |||||||||||||
YouGov October 23-26, 2018 | CBS News | 43% | 46% | 11% | +/-3.7 | 975 | |||||||||||||
Mason Strategies October 15-20, 2018 | IndyPolitics.org | 43% | 47% | 10% | +/-3.9 | 600 | |||||||||||||
American Viewpoint October 14-17, 2018 | Braun campaign | 40% | 44% | 16% | +/-3.0 | 800 | |||||||||||||
SurveyUSA October 12-16, 2018 | Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics | 41% | 40% | 19% | +/-4.6 | 1,400 | |||||||||||||
Vox Populi (Republican vs. Democrat only, no undecided option) October 13-15, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 38% | 0% | +/-3.5 | 783 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) September 29-October 2, 2018 | Fox News | 43% | 41% | 16% | +/-3.5 | 695 | |||||||||||||
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics September 12-19, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 43% | 11% | +/-3.3 | 1,181 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018 | Fox News | 43% | 45% | 12% | +/-3.5 | 677 | |||||||||||||
Marist University August 26-29, 2018 | NBC News | 44% | 41% | 15% | +/-5.0 | 576 | |||||||||||||
Trafalgar Group July 31-August 7, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 39% | 11% | +/-2.6 | 1,420 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 44.15% | 42.54% | 12% | +/-3.84 | 833.08 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Hyde-Smith | Espy | McDaniel | Bartee | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||
NBC News/Marist October 13-18, 2018 | N/A | 38% | 29% | 15% | 2% | 15% | +/-6.1 | 511 | |||||||||||
Y'all Politics July 30-31, 2018 | N/A | 41% | 27% | 15% | 1% | 16% | +/-3.5 | 2,100 | |||||||||||
AVERAGES | 39.5% | 28% | 15% | 1.5% | 15.5% | +/-4.8 | 1,305.5 | ||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Josh Hawley (R) | Claire McCaskill (D) | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Trafalgar Group (October 29-November 4, 2018) | N/A | 40% | 45% | 15% | +/-2.3 | 1,791 | |||||||||||||
Emerson College (November 1-3, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 46% | 5% | +/-3.8 | 732 | |||||||||||||
Remington Research Group (November 1-2, 2018) | Missouri Scout | 47% | 47% | 6% | +/-2.6 | 1,424 | |||||||||||||
Marist University (October 30-November 1, 2018) | NBC News | 44% | 47% | 9% | +/-5.2 | 600 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) (October 27-30, 2018) | Fox News | 43% | 43% | 14% | +/-3.5 | 741 | |||||||||||||
Cygnal (October 26-27, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 46% | 5% | +/-4.38 | 501 | |||||||||||||
Remington Research Group (October 24-25, 2018) | Missouri Scout | 49% | 45% | 6% | +/-2.6 | 1,376 | |||||||||||||
OnMessage Inc. (October 16-18, 2018) | Hawley campaign | 49% | 42% | 9% | +/-3.46 | 800 | |||||||||||||
Remington Research Group (October 17-18, 2018) | Missouri Scout | 47% | 46% | 7% | +/-2.7 | 1,215 | |||||||||||||
The Polling Company (October 11-13, 2018) | Citizens United | 50% | 47% | 3% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||
1st Tuesday Campaigns (October 5-6, 2018) | N/A | 44% | 42% | 14% | +/-3.02 | 1,052 | |||||||||||||
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics (September 27- October 7, 2018) | N/A | 45% | 44% | 11% | +/-3.0 | 1,111 | |||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates (September 29- October 2, 2018) | Missouri Rising Action | 52% | 44% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) (September 29- October 2, 2018) | Fox News | 43% | 43% | 13% | +/-3.5 | 805 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 46.5% | 44.79% | 8.64% | +/-3.43 | 953.43 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Click here to see older polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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United States Senate election in Montana, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Jon Tester (D) | Matt Rosendale (R) | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
University of Montana, Big Sky (October 10-18, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 39% | 12% | +/-4.33 | 533 | |||||||||||||
Montana State University, Billings (October 8-13, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 38% | 15% | +/-4.5 | 471 | |||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling (September 28, 2018) | Protect Our Care | 49% | 45% | 6% | +/-4.0 | 594 | |||||||||||||
Axis Research (September 17-19, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 44% | 44% | 12% | +/-4.5 | 480 | |||||||||||||
Beneson Strategy Group (September 6-16, 2018) | AARP | 50% | 43% | 7% | +/-3.0 | 950 | |||||||||||||
YouGov (September 10- 14, 2018) | CBS News | 47% | 45% | 8% | +/-5.2 | 543 | |||||||||||||
WPA Intelligence (August 20- 22, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 45% | 47% | 8% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||
Remington Research (July 8 - 10, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 46% | 5% | +/-2.0 | 2,581 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 47.5% | 43.38% | 9.13% | +/-3.94 | 844 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Throughout September and October 2018, 10 polls found Heller and Rosen tied within the polls' margins of error.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Tim Hagan | Undecided/None | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||
SSRS October 24-29, 2018 | CNN | 45% | 48% | 2% | 4% | +/-4.8 | 622 | ||||||||||||
NBC/Marist Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 42% | 8% | 6% | +/-5.5 | 574 | ||||||||||||
SSRS September 25-29, 2018 | CNN | 43% | 47% | 4% | 5% | +/-4.6 | 693 | ||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 44% | 45.67% | 4.67% | 5% | +/-4.97 | 629.67 | |||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) (with "Other" and "Don't know" options) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Other | Don't know | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA October 12-19, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 41% | 8% | 4% | +/-3.3 | 1,137 | ||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Undecided/None | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Emerson College November 1-4, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 49% | 4% | +/-3.0 | 1,197 | |||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling October 15-16, 2018 | Protect Our Care | 46% | 48% | 7% | +/-3.9 | 648 | |||||||||||||
Vox Populi (Democrat vs. Republican only, no undecided option) October 13-15, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 44% | 0% | +/-3.7 | 614 | |||||||||||||
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 8-10, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 45% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 642 | |||||||||||||
NBC/Marist Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 44% | 9% | +/-5.5 | 574 | |||||||||||||
Ipsos September 7-17, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 43% | 8% | +/-3.7 | 1,039 | |||||||||||||
Gravis September 11-12, 2018 | N/A | 45% | 47% | 8% | +/-3.7 | 700 | |||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling August 20-21, 2018 | Protect Our Care | 43% | 48% | 9% | +/-4.3 | 500 | |||||||||||||
Suffolk University July 24-29, 2018 | N/A | 41% | 40% | 9% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 44.78% | 45.33% | 6.78% | +/-4.02 | 712.67 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L) v. Bakari (Independent American) v. Michaels (Independent) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Dean Heller | Jacky Rosen | Tim Hagan | Kamau Bakari | Barry Michaels | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||
Suffolk University September 5-10, 2018 | 41% | 42% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 9% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Click [show] to view polling conducted before the June 12, 2018, primary. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Senate election in New Jersey | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Menendez | Hugin | Sabrin | Unsure/Someone else/Wouldn't Vote | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||
Quinnipiac University (October 29 - November 4, 2018) | N/A | 55% | 40% | 0% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 1,115 | ||||||||||||
Stockton University (October 25-31, 2018) | N/A | 51% | 39% | 3% | 6% | +/-4.0 | 598 | ||||||||||||
Vox Populi Polling (October 27-29, 2018) | N/A | 54% | 46% | 0% | 0% | +/-3.4 | 814 | ||||||||||||
Emerson College (October 24-26, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 42% | 0% | 7% | +/-4.0 | 659 | ||||||||||||
Rutgers University (October 12-19, 2018) | N/A | 51% | 46% | 0% | 4% | +/-5.1 | 496 | ||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
Click [show] to see older poll results | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, Heinrich (D) v. Johnson (L) v. Rich (R) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Martin Heinrich | Gary Johnson | Mick Rich | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||
Research & Polling Inc. Oct. 26-Nov. 1, 2018 | Albuquerque Journal | 51% | 12% | 31% | 6% | +/-4.7 | 993 | ||||||||||||
Emerson College October 24-26, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 16% | 32% | 6% | +/-3.4 | 936 | ||||||||||||
Research & Polling Inc. September 7-13, 2018 | Albuquerque Journal | 47% | 16% | 26% | 0% | +/-3.1 | 966 | ||||||||||||
Emerson College August 17-18, 2018 | N/A | 39% | 21% | 11% | 30% | +/-4.6 | 500 | ||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 46.25% | 16.25% | 25% | 10.5% | +/-3.95 | 848.75 | |||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Cramer (R) v. Heitkamp (D) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Cramer | Heitkamp | Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) October 27-30, 2018 | FOX News | 51% | 42% | 4% | +/-3 | 789 | |||||||||||||
Strategic Research Associates October 12-19, 2018 | Gray TV | 56% | 40% | 4% | +/-3.8 | 650 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) Sept. 28-Oct. 2, 2018 | FOX News | 53% | 41% | 3% | +/-3.5 | 704 | |||||||||||||
Strategic Research Associates September 17-27, 2018 | Gray TV | 51% | 41% | 8% | +/-3.8 | 650 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018 | FOX News | 48% | 44% | 6% | +/-3.5 | 701 | |||||||||||||
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy June 13-15, 2018 | N/A | 48% | 44% | 8% | +/-4 | 625 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 51.17% | 42% | 5.5% | +/-3.6 | 686.5 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Click [show] to view polling conducted before the June 12, 2018, primary. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Sherrod Brown (D) | Jim Renacci (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Gravis Marketing (October 29-30, 2018) | N/A | 46% | 37% | 17% | +/-3.5 | 789 | |||||||||||||
Cygnal (October 30-31, 2018) | N/A | 52% | 42% | 6% | +/-4.4 | 503 | |||||||||||||
Baldwin Wallace University (October 19-27, 2018) | N/A | 51% | 32% | 17% | +/-3.8 | 1,051 | |||||||||||||
Suffolk University (October 4-8, 2018) | The Cincinnati Enquirer | 54% | 36% | 10% | +/-4.4 | 500 | |||||||||||||
Baldwin Wallace University (September 28-October 8, 2018) | N/A | 49% | 33% | 18% | +/-3.5 | 1,007 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 50.4% | 36% | 13.6% | +/-3.92 | 770 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Click [show] to see older poll results | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Senate in Tennessee, General election | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Phil Bredesen (D) | Marsha Blackburn (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||||
East Tennessee State University October 22-29, 2018 | 44% | 44% | 12% | +/-4.0 | 610 | ||||||||||||||
SSRS October 24-29, 2018 | 45% | 49% | 6% | +/-4.3 | 764 | ||||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research October 27-30, 2018 | 41% | 50% | 5% | +/-3.0 | 850 | ||||||||||||||
Marist Poll October 23-27, 2018 | 46% | 51% | 4% | +/-4.0 | 910 | ||||||||||||||
Vanderbilt University October 8-13, 2018 | 44% | 43% | 12% | +/-4.9 | 800 | ||||||||||||||
Reuters October 4-11, 2018 | 44% | 47% | 10% | +/-3.4 | 1,108 | ||||||||||||||
NYT Upshot/Siena College October 7-11, 2018 | 40% | 54% | 6% | +/-4.2 | 593 | ||||||||||||||
YouGov October 2-5, 2018 | 42% | 50% | 8% | +/-3.4 | 1,002 | ||||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research September 29-October 2, 2018 | 43% | 48% | 10% | +/-3.5 | 806 | ||||||||||||||
Triton Polling and Research September 10-12, 2018 | 45% | 48.3% | 6.7% | +/-3.0 | 1,038 | ||||||||||||||
SSRS September 11-15, 2018 | 50% | 45% | 5% | +/-4.3 | 723 | ||||||||||||||
NBC News/Marist August 25-28, 2018 | 48% | 46% | 6% | +/-5.1 | 538 | ||||||||||||||
Gravis August 9-11, 2018 | 44% | 48% | 8% | +/-3.9 | 620 | ||||||||||||||
Public Policy Polling July 10-11, 2018 | 44% | 41% | 15% | +/-4.1 | 583 | ||||||||||||||
Middle Tennessee State University March 22-29, 2018 | 45% | 35% | 20% | +/-4.0 | 600 | ||||||||||||||
Garin-Hart-Yang (commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) October 20-22, 2017 | 46% | 41% | 13% | +/-4.1 | 601 | ||||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Cruz | O'Rourke | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Trafalgar Group November 3-5, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 43% | 5% | +/-2.1 | 2,135 | |||||||||||||
Emerson October 28-30, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 47% | 2% | +/-3.7 | 781 | |||||||||||||
UT Tyler Polling Center October 15-28, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 39% | 15% | +/-3.0 | 1,033 | |||||||||||||
Quinnipiac University October 22-28, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 46% | 3% | +/-3.5 | 1,078 | |||||||||||||
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies October 25-26, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 42% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 588 | |||||||||||||
University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 15-21, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 45% | 4% | +/-3.2 | 927 | |||||||||||||
GBA Strategies October 18-21, 2018 | End Citizens United | 50% | 46% | 4% | +/-3.2 | 1,298 | |||||||||||||
Reuters October 12-18, 2018 | N/A | 49% | 44% | 7% | +/-3.2 | 1,298 | |||||||||||||
CNN/SRSS October 9-13, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 45% | 3% | +/-4.5 | 716 | |||||||||||||
WPA Intelligence October 8-13, 2018 | Club for Growth Action | 52% | 43% | 5% | +/-3.5 | 801 | |||||||||||||
New York Times/Siena College October 8-11, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 43% | 6% | +/-3.6 | 800 | |||||||||||||
Quinnipiac University October 3-9, 2018 | N/A | 54% | 45% | 2% | +/-4.4 | 730 | |||||||||||||
CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 44% | 6% | +/-4.2 | 881 | |||||||||||||
Emerson October 1-5, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 42% | 11% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 50.5% | 43.86% | 5.57% | +/-3.61 | 969 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Click [show] to see older poll results | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Undecided/Other | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||
Emerson College (October 28-31, 2018) | N/A | 47% | 42% | 11% | +/-3.2 | 1,013 | |||||||||||||
Research America (October 19-30, 2018) | The Metro News The Dominion Post | 45% | 40% | 16% | +/-4.9 | 400 | |||||||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (October 16-18, 2018) | National Republican Senatorial Committee | 42% | 44% | 15% | +/-4.0 | 600 | |||||||||||||
PopPolling Research (October 13-15, 2018) | N/A | 53% | 47% | 0% | +/-3.5 | 789 | |||||||||||||
Strategic Research Associates, LLC (October 12-19, 2018) | Gray Television | 52% | 36% | 12% | +/-3.8 | 650 | |||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
Click [show] to view earlier polls of the general election. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Click [show] to view polls conducted in 2017. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Click [show] to view polling in the Republican primary. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The following table compares the race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. It was updated biweekly.
In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:
Results of special elections to the 115th Congress | ||||||
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Race | Election date | Incumbent | Winner | Election MOV | Previous election MOV | 2016 Presidential election MOV[3] |
Kansas' 4th Congressional District | April 11, 2017 | Mike Pompeo | Ron Estes | R+6 | R+31 | R+27 |
Montana's At-Large Congressional District | May 25, 2017 | Ryan Zinke | Greg Gianforte | R+6 | R+15 | R+21 |
California's 34th Congressional District | June 6, 2017 | Xavier Becerra | Jimmy Gomez | D+18[4] | D+54[4] | D+73 |
Georgia's 6th Congressional District | June 20, 2017 | Tom Price | Karen Handel | R+4 | R+24 | R+1 |
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District | June 20, 2017 | Mick Mulvaney | Ralph Norman | R+3 | R+20 | R+18 |
Utah's 3rd Congressional District | November 7, 2017 | Jason Chaffetz | John Curtis | R+32 | R+47 | R+24 |
U.S. Senate in Alabama | December 12, 2017 | Jeff Sessions | Doug Jones | D+2 | R+28 | R+28 |
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District | March 13, 2018 | Tim Murphy | Conor Lamb | D+0[5] | R+100 | R+19 |
Arizona's 8th Congressional District | April 24, 2018 | Trent Franks | Debbie Lesko | R+6 | R+38 | R+21 |
Texas' 27th Congressional District | June 30, 2018 | Blake Farenthold | Michael Cloud | R+23 | R+24 | R+23 |
Ohio's 12th Congressional District | August 7, 2018 | Patrick Tiberi | Troy Balderson | R+1 | R+40 | R+11 |
Michigan's 13th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | John Conyers Jr. | Brenda Jones | D+78 | D+61 | D+61 |
U.S. Senate in Minnesota | November 6, 2018 | Al Franken | Tina Smith | D+11 | D+10 | D+2 |
U.S. Senate in Mississippi | November 6, 2018 | Thad Cochran | Cindy Hyde-Smith | R+8 | R+22 | R+18 |
New York's 25th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | Louise Slaughter | Joseph Morelle | D+16 | D+12 | D+16 |
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | Patrick Meehan | Mary Gay Scanlon | D+6 | R+19 | D+2 |
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District | November 6, 2018 | Charlie Dent | Susan Wild | D+0 | R+20 | R+8 |
Name: | Party: | Current office: |
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Bob Corker | Republican | Tennessee |
Jeff Flake | Republican | Arizona |
Orrin Hatch | Republican | Utah |
The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.
Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018 | |||||||
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Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | Democrats leaving office early | Republicans leaving office early | Total leaving office early |
2018 | |||||||
U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
U.S. House | 18 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 14 | 17 | |
Total | 18 | 37 | 55 | 4 | 16 | 20 | |
2016 | |||||||
U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
U.S. House | 16 | 24 | 40 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
Total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
2014 | |||||||
U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
Total | 21 | 27 | 48 | 6 | 8 | 14 | |
2012 | |||||||
U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[6] | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
Total | 29 | 23 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators would not be on the 2018 general election ballot.
The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends were used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predicted that the Democratic Party would be more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
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Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[7] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped) | |
2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D | |
2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[8] | -7 | R | |
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped) |
All 435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats were up for regular elections in the 2018 midterms. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority in both chambers.
All federal elections: |
Ballotpedia's 2018 Candidate Connection report |
United States Congress elections, 2018 |
Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2018 |
Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018) |
List of candidates who ran in U.S. Congress elections, 2018 |
List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018 |
Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018 |
Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections |
Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections |
Incumbent win rates by state |
New members elected in 2018 congressional elections |
Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses |
Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018 |
Results of federal elected officials seeking other offices, 2018 |
Noteworthy minor party candidates in the 2018 elections |
PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections |
Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018 |
Battleground election polls, 2018 |
Timeline of events impacting 2018 congressional elections |
Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018 |
U.S. Senate elections: |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018 |
United States Senate elections, 2018 |
Control of the U.S. Senate |
States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018 |
U.S. House elections: |
U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018 |
United States House of Representatives elections, 2018 |
Control of the U.S. House |
U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 |
U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016 |
U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2018 |
Click below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.
Throughout the course of the 115th Congress, we curated statements and reactions by members of Congress on a variety of different policy areas and topics. Click on a tile below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.
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