United States Senate elections, 2018

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2018 U.S. Senate Elections

Election Date
November 6, 2018

U.S. Senate Elections by State
BattlegroundsBattleground primaries
GOP primaries • Democratic primaries
Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
BattlegroundsBattleground primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming


Thirty-five U.S. Senate seats, including two in special elections, were up for election on November 6, 2018. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a 51-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats held 47 seats, and the remaining two seats were held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.

Five incumbents—four Democrats and one Republican—lost their seats in 2018. Following the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two and controlled 53 seats in the chamber, Democrats controlled 45 seats, and independents in Maine and Vermont who caucus with the Democrats held two seats.

On this page, Ballotpedia compiled the following resources about the U.S. Senate elections:

This page focuses mainly on general elections. For more in-depth information on the Democratic and Republican primaries by state, see the following pages.

Democratic Party United States Senate Democratic Party primaries, 2018
Republican Party United States Senate Republican Party primaries, 2018

2018 election analysis and context[edit]

Democrats were defending 26 of the 35 seats up for re-election, making it difficult for them to add the two seats necessary to wrest majority control from the Republicans. This situation occurs occasionally. To read more about how a disproportion in the number of seats up for election impacted partisan risk in the 2016 elections, click here.

Republicans won Democratic seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, while Democrats won Republican seats in Arizona and Nevada. Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate in the 116th Congress.

Incumbents ran for re-election in 32 of 35 races. Five incumbent U.S. senators were defeated—four Democrats and one Republican. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016, while Republicans had to defend just one seat in a state won by Clinton. All five of the incumbents who lost in 2018 were from those 11 states:

  • Missouri: Incumbent U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) lost to Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R). Trump won Missouri by 18.5 percentage points in 2016. McCaskill's 2012 re-election was the last time a Democrat won a statewide election in Missouri.


Election results[edit]

This table shows the results of the U.S. Senate elections on November 6, 2018. Of the 35 seats up for election, Democrats won 22 seats, Republicans won 11 seats, and two seats were won by independents who caucus with the Democrats. In 2018, Republicans had a net gain of two seats and controlled 53 seats at the beginning of the 116th Congress.

Results of United States Senate elections, 2018
State Incumbent Winner Partisan change Incumbent status
Arizona Republican Party Jeff Flake Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema Yes Incumbent didn't seek re-election
California Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein No Won
Connecticut Democratic Party Chris Murphy Democratic Party Chris Murphy No Won
Delaware Democratic Party Tom Carper Democratic Party Tom Carper No Won
Florida Democratic Party Bill Nelson Republican Party Rick Scott Yes Lost
Hawaii Democratic Party Mazie Hirono Democratic Party Mazie Hirono No Won
Indiana Democratic Party Joe Donnelly Republican Party Mike Braun Yes Lost
Massachusetts Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren No Won
Maryland Democratic Party Ben Cardin Democratic Party Ben Cardin No Won
Maine Grey.png Angus King Grey.png Angus King No Won
Michigan Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow No Won
Minnesota Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar No Won
Minnesota (special) Democratic Party Tina Smith Democratic Party Tina Smith No Won
Missouri Democratic Party Claire McCaskill Republican Party Josh Hawley Yes Lost
Mississippi Republican Party Roger Wicker Republican Party Roger Wicker No Won
Mississippi (special) Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith No Won
Montana Democratic Party Jon Tester Democratic Party Jon Tester No Won
North Dakota Democratic Party Heidi Heitkamp Republican Party Kevin Cramer Yes Lost
Nebraska Republican Party Deb Fischer Republican Party Deb Fischer No Won
New Jersey Democratic Party Bob Menendez Democratic Party Bob Menendez No Won
New Mexico Democratic Party Martin Heinrich Democratic Party Martin Heinrich No Won
Nevada Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Yes Lost
New York Democratic Party Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic Party Kirsten Gillibrand No Won
Ohio Democratic Party Sherrod Brown Democratic Party Sherrod Brown No Won
Pennsylvania Democratic Party Bob Casey Democratic Party Bob Casey No Won
Rhode Island Democratic Party Sheldon Whitehouse Democratic Party Sheldon Whitehouse No Won
Tennessee Republican Party Bob Corker Republican Party Marsha Blackburn No Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Texas Republican Party Ted Cruz Republican Party Ted Cruz No Won
Utah Republican Party Orrin Hatch Republican Party Mitt Romney No Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Virginia Democratic Party Tim Kaine Democratic Party Tim Kaine No Won
Vermont Grey.png Bernie Sanders Grey.png Bernie Sanders No Won
Washington Democratic Party Maria Cantwell Democratic Party Maria Cantwell No Won
Wisconsin Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin No Won
West Virginia Democratic Party Joe Manchin Democratic Party Joe Manchin No Won
Wyoming Republican Party John Barrasso Republican Party John Barrasso No Won


Margin of victory[edit]

See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections

The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100 percent. Some quick facts:

  • The average margin of victory was 16.8 percent. This is below the 22.1 percent average in 2016 and the 22.6 percent average in 2014.
  • On average, Republicans won by smaller margins than Democrats. The average MOV for victorious Democrats was 16.8 percent, while Republican victors averaged a MOV of 14.3 percent.
  • The closest race was in Florida, where challenger Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Bill Nelson (D) by 0.15 percent of the vote.

Pre-election analysis[edit]

The Democratic Party faced greater partisan risk in regular Senate elections in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Additionally, the Democratic Party had to defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Republicans defended just one Senate seat in a state won by Clinton—Nevada.

Three incumbent senators, all Republicans, did not seek re-election in 2018: Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.), Sen. Jeff Flake (Ariz.), and Sen. Orrin Hatch (Utah).

Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 33 regular elections on November 6, 2018, began their six-year terms on January 3, 2019.

Partisan breakdown[edit]

In the 2016 elections, the Republican Party lost two seats but maintained its Senate majority. Heading into the 2018 election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate with 51 Senate seats, Democrats had 47 Senate seats, and two seats were held by independents who caused with the Democratic Party. In the 2018 midterm elections, the Republican Party expanded their majority by two seats.

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 5, 2018 After the 2018 Election
     Democratic Party 47 45
     Republican Party 51 53
     Independent 2 2
     Vacancies 0 0
Total 100 100



Battlegrounds[edit]

Including the two special elections, there were 24 Democratic seats, nine Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party needed to pick up two seats in the Senate in 2018 to regain the majority they lost in 2014. This was unlikely as there were so few Republican seats up for election.[2]

Click here for more of Ballotpedia's coverage of U.S. Senate battleground races in 2018.

The following map displays which Senate seats were up for election in 2018 and identifies those races that were considered battleground elections. Mouse over a state for more detailed information.

Results of United States Senate battlegrounds, 2018
State Incumbent Winner Partisan change Incumbent status
Arizona Republican Party Jeff Flake Democratic Party Kyrsten Sinema Yes Incumbent didn't seek re-election
California Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein No Won
Florida Democratic Party Bill Nelson Republican Party Rick Scott Yes Lost
Indiana Democratic Party Joe Donnelly Republican Party Mike Braun Yes Lost
Minnesota (special) Democratic Party Tina Smith Democratic Party Tina Smith No Won
Missouri Democratic Party Claire McCaskill Republican Party Josh Hawley Yes Lost
Mississippi (special) Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith No Won
Montana Democratic Party Jon Tester Democratic Party Jon Tester No Won
North Dakota Democratic Party Heidi Heitkamp Republican Party Kevin Cramer Yes Lost
New Jersey Democratic Party Bob Menendez Democratic Party Bob Menendez No Won
New Mexico Democratic Party Martin Heinrich Democratic Party Martin Heinrich No Won
Nevada Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Yes Lost
Ohio Democratic Party Sherrod Brown Democratic Party Sherrod Brown No Won
Tennessee Republican Party Bob Corker Republican Party Marsha Blackburn No Incumbent didn't seek re-election
Texas Republican Party Ted Cruz Republican Party Ted Cruz No Won
West Virginia Democratic Party Joe Manchin Democratic Party Joe Manchin No Won



List of all U.S. Senate elections in 2018[edit]


Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

The following tabs feature the most recent polls in battleground Senate races in 2018.

Arizona[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Arizona, General election: Sinema vs. McSally
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Sinema Republican Party McSallyOther/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
November 2-3, 2018
N/A 48%49%3%+/-3.9631
Trafalgar Group
October 30-November 1, 2018
N/A 50%47%3%+/-2.12,166
Vox Populi Polling
October 27-30, 2018
N/A 52%48%0%+/-3.7677
Fox News
October 27-29, 2018
N/A 46%46%8%+/-3.5643
CNN/SSRS
October 24-29, 2018
N/A 51%47%2%+/-4.4702
HighGround Public Affairs
October 26-28, 2018
N/A 45%47%9%+/-4.9400
NBC News/Marist
October 23-27, 2018
N/A 50%44%6%+/-5.4506
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
September 17-26, 2018
N/A 46%48%6%+/-4.0799
ABC 15/OH Predictive Insights
October 22-23, 2018
N/A 45%52%3%+/-4.0600
AVERAGES 48.11% 47.56% 4.44% +/-3.99 791.56
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

California[edit]

General election[edit]

U.S. Senate election in California, General election
Poll Feinstein (D) De León (D)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
SurveyUSA
November 1-2, 2018
50%36%14%+/-4.71,200
Berkeley IGS
October 19-26, 2018
45%36%19%+/-4.01,339
Probolsky Research
October 25-30, 2018
41%35%24%+/-3.3900
Public Policy Institute of California
October 12-21, 2018
43%27%31%+/-3.31,704
Probolsky Research
August 29-September 2, 2018
37%29%34%+/-3.3900
The Public Policy Institute of California
July 8-17, 2018
46%24%9%+/-3.41,711
LA Times
June 6-17, 2018
36%18%46%+/-4.0893
Probolsky Research
April 16-18, 2018
38%27%35%+/-3.3900
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Florida[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Nelson Republican Party ScottUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
St. Pete Polls
November 3-4, 2018
FloridaPolitics.com 50%46%4%+/-1.83,088
Quinnipiac University
October 29-November 4, 2018
N/A 51%44%5%+/-3.51,142
St. Pete Polls
November 1-2, 2018
FloridaPolitics.com 48%49%3%+/-1.92,733
Marist College
October 30-November 2, 2018
N/A 50%46%4%+/-5.0595
Gravis Marketing
October 29-November 2, 2018
N/A 48%46%6%+/-3.6753
AVERAGES 49.4% 46.2% 4.4% +/-3.16 1,662.2
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Indiana[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Indiana, Donnelly vs. Braun
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Donnelly Republican Party BraunUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
October 27-30, 2018
Fox News 45%38%17%+/-3.5722
Marist University
October 24-28, 2018
NBC News 45%42%13%+/-5.5496
Cygnal
October 26-27, 2018
N/A 46%49%5%+/-4.36505
YouGov
October 23-26, 2018
CBS News 43%46%11%+/-3.7975
Mason Strategies
October 15-20, 2018
IndyPolitics.org 43%47%10%+/-3.9600
American Viewpoint
October 14-17, 2018
Braun campaign 40%44%16%+/-3.0800
SurveyUSA
October 12-16, 2018
Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics 41%40%19%+/-4.61,400
Vox Populi (Republican vs. Democrat only, no undecided option)
October 13-15, 2018
N/A 44%38%0%+/-3.5783
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 29-October 2, 2018
Fox News 43%41%16%+/-3.5695
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics
September 12-19, 2018
N/A 46%43%11%+/-3.31,181
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 8-11, 2018
Fox News 43%45%12%+/-3.5677
Marist University
August 26-29, 2018
NBC News 44%41%15%+/-5.0576
Trafalgar Group
July 31-August 7, 2018
N/A 51%39%11%+/-2.61,420
AVERAGES 44.15% 42.54% 12% +/-3.84 833.08
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Minnesota[edit]

Mississippi[edit]

U.S. Senate special election in Mississippi, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Hyde-Smith Democratic Party EspyRepublican Party McDanielDemocratic Party BarteeUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
NBC News/Marist
October 13-18, 2018
N/A 38%29%15%2%15%+/-6.1511
Y'all Politics
July 30-31, 2018
N/A 41%27%15%1%16%+/-3.52,100
AVERAGES 39.5% 28% 15% 1.5% 15.5% +/-4.8 1,305.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Missouri[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Missouri, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Josh Hawley (R) Claire McCaskill (D)Other/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Trafalgar Group
(October 29-November 4, 2018)
N/A 40%45%15%+/-2.31,791
Emerson College
(November 1-3, 2018)
N/A 49%46%5%+/-3.8732
Remington Research Group
(November 1-2, 2018)
Missouri Scout 47%47%6%+/-2.61,424
Marist University
(October 30-November 1, 2018)
NBC News 44%47%9%+/-5.2600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
(October 27-30, 2018)
Fox News 43%43%14%+/-3.5741
Cygnal
(October 26-27, 2018)
N/A 49%46%5%+/-4.38501
Remington Research Group
(October 24-25, 2018)
Missouri Scout 49%45%6%+/-2.61,376
OnMessage Inc.
(October 16-18, 2018)
Hawley campaign 49%42%9%+/-3.46800
Remington Research Group
(October 17-18, 2018)
Missouri Scout 47%46%7%+/-2.71,215
The Polling Company
(October 11-13, 2018)
Citizens United 50%47%3%+/-4.0600
1st Tuesday Campaigns
(October 5-6, 2018)
N/A 44%42%14%+/-3.021,052
Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics
(September 27- October 7, 2018)
N/A 45%44%11%+/-3.01,111
McLaughlin & Associates
(September 29- October 2, 2018)
Missouri Rising Action 52%44%4%+/-4.0600
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R)
(September 29- October 2, 2018)
Fox News 43%43%13%+/-3.5805
AVERAGES 46.5% 44.79% 8.64% +/-3.43 953.43
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.



Montana[edit]

United States Senate election in Montana, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Jon Tester (D) Matt Rosendale (R)Other/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
University of Montana, Big Sky
(October 10-18, 2018)
N/A 49%39%12%+/-4.33533
Montana State University, Billings
(October 8-13, 2018)
N/A 47%38%15%+/-4.5471
Public Policy Polling
(September 28, 2018)
Protect Our Care 49%45%6%+/-4.0594
Axis Research
(September 17-19, 2018)
National Republican Senatorial Committee 44%44%12%+/-4.5480
Beneson Strategy Group
(September 6-16, 2018)
AARP 50%43%7%+/-3.0950
YouGov
(September 10- 14, 2018)
CBS News 47%45%8%+/-5.2543
WPA Intelligence
(August 20- 22, 2018)
National Republican Senatorial Committee 45%47%8%+/-4.0600
Remington Research
(July 8 - 10, 2018)
N/A 49%46%5%+/-2.02,581
AVERAGES 47.5% 43.38% 9.13% +/-3.94 844
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Nevada[edit]

Throughout September and October 2018, 10 polls found Heller and Rosen tied within the polls' margins of error.

U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L)
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenLibertarian Party Tim HaganUndecided/NoneMargin of errorSample size
SSRS
October 24-29, 2018
CNN 45%48%2%4%+/-4.8622
NBC/Marist
Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018
N/A 44%42%8%6%+/-5.5574
SSRS
September 25-29, 2018
CNN 43%47%4%5%+/-4.6693
AVERAGES 44% 45.67% 4.67% 5% +/-4.97 629.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) (with "Other" and "Don't know" options)
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenOtherDon't knowMargin of errorSample size
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA
October 12-19, 2018
N/A 47%41%8%4%+/-3.31,137
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D)
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenUndecided/NoneMargin of errorSample size
Emerson College
November 1-4, 2018
N/A 45%49%4%+/-3.01,197
Public Policy Polling
October 15-16, 2018
Protect Our Care 46%48%7%+/-3.9648
Vox Populi (Democrat vs. Republican only, no undecided option)
October 13-15, 2018
N/A 44%44%0%+/-3.7614
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 8-10, 2018
N/A 47%45%7%+/-4.0642
NBC/Marist
Sept. 30-Oct. 3, 2018
N/A 46%44%9%+/-5.5574
Ipsos
September 7-17, 2018
N/A 46%43%8%+/-3.71,039
Gravis
September 11-12, 2018
N/A 45%47%8%+/-3.7700
Public Policy Polling
August 20-21, 2018
Protect Our Care 43%48%9%+/-4.3500
Suffolk University
July 24-29, 2018
N/A 41%40%9%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 44.78% 45.33% 6.78% +/-4.02 712.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
U.S. Senate election in Nevada, Heller (R) v. Rosen (D) v. Hagan (L) v. Bakari (Independent American) v. Michaels (Independent)
Poll Republican Party Dean Heller Democratic Party Jacky RosenLibertarian Party Tim HaganGrey.png Kamau BakariGrey.png Barry MichaelsUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Suffolk University
September 5-10, 2018
41%42%2%2%2%9%+/-4.4500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

New Jersey[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in New Jersey
Poll Poll sponsor Menendez HuginSabrinUnsure/Someone else/Wouldn't VoteMargin of ErrorSample Size
Quinnipiac University
(October 29 - November 4, 2018)
N/A 55%40%0%5%+/-4.01,115
Stockton University
(October 25-31, 2018)
N/A 51%39%3%6%+/-4.0598
Vox Populi Polling
(October 27-29, 2018)
N/A 54%46%0%0%+/-3.4814
Emerson College
(October 24-26, 2018)
N/A 47%42%0%7%+/-4.0659
Rutgers University
(October 12-19, 2018)
N/A 51%46%0%4%+/-5.1496
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


New Mexico[edit]

U.S. Senate election in New Mexico, Heinrich (D) v. Johnson (L) v. Rich (R)
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Martin Heinrich Libertarian Party Gary JohnsonRepublican Party Mick RichUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Research & Polling Inc.
Oct. 26-Nov. 1, 2018
Albuquerque Journal 51%12%31%6%+/-4.7993
Emerson College
October 24-26, 2018
N/A 48%16%32%6%+/-3.4936
Research & Polling Inc.
September 7-13, 2018
Albuquerque Journal 47%16%26%0%+/-3.1966
Emerson College
August 17-18, 2018
N/A 39%21%11%30%+/-4.6500
AVERAGES 46.25% 16.25% 25% 10.5% +/-3.95 848.75
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.



North Dakota[edit]

U.S. Senate election in North Dakota, Cramer (R) v. Heitkamp (D)
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Cramer Democratic Party HeitkampUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
October 27-30, 2018
FOX News 51%42%4%+/-3789
Strategic Research Associates
October 12-19, 2018
Gray TV 56%40%4%+/-3.8650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
Sept. 28-Oct. 2, 2018
FOX News 53%41%3%+/-3.5704
Strategic Research Associates
September 17-27, 2018
Gray TV 51%41%8%+/-3.8650
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R)
September 8-11, 2018
FOX News 48%44%6%+/-3.5701
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy
June 13-15, 2018
N/A 48%44%8%+/-4625
AVERAGES 51.17% 42% 5.5% +/-3.6 686.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Ohio[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
United States Senate election in Ohio, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Sherrod Brown (D) Jim Renacci (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
Gravis Marketing
(October 29-30, 2018)
N/A 46%37%17%+/-3.5789
Cygnal
(October 30-31, 2018)
N/A 52%42%6%+/-4.4503
Baldwin Wallace University
(October 19-27, 2018)
N/A 51%32%17%+/-3.81,051
Suffolk University
(October 4-8, 2018)
The Cincinnati Enquirer 54%36%10%+/-4.4500
Baldwin Wallace University
(September 28-October 8, 2018)
N/A 49%33%18%+/-3.51,007
AVERAGES 50.4% 36% 13.6% +/-3.92 770
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Tennessee[edit]

U.S. Senate in Tennessee, General election
Poll Phil Bredesen (D) Marsha Blackburn (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
East Tennessee State University
October 22-29, 2018
44%44%12%+/-4.0610
SSRS
October 24-29, 2018
45%49%6%+/-4.3764
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
October 27-30, 2018
41%50%5%+/-3.0850
Marist Poll
October 23-27, 2018
46%51%4%+/-4.0910
Vanderbilt University
October 8-13, 2018
44%43%12%+/-4.9800
Reuters
October 4-11, 2018
44%47%10%+/-3.41,108
NYT Upshot/Siena College
October 7-11, 2018
40%54%6%+/-4.2593
YouGov
October 2-5, 2018
42%50%8%+/-3.41,002
Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research
September 29-October 2, 2018
43%48%10%+/-3.5806
Triton Polling and Research
September 10-12, 2018
45%48.3%6.7%+/-3.01,038
SSRS
September 11-15, 2018
50%45%5%+/-4.3723
NBC News/Marist
August 25-28, 2018
48%46%6%+/-5.1538
Gravis
August 9-11, 2018
44%48%8%+/-3.9620
Public Policy Polling
July 10-11, 2018
44%41%15%+/-4.1583
Middle Tennessee State University
March 22-29, 2018
45%35%20%+/-4.0600
Garin-Hart-Yang (commissioned by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee)
October 20-22, 2017
46%41%13%+/-4.1601
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Texas[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Cruz Democratic Party O'RourkeOther/UndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Trafalgar Group
November 3-5, 2018
N/A 52%43%5%+/-2.12,135
Emerson
October 28-30, 2018
N/A 50%47%2%+/-3.7781
UT Tyler Polling Center
October 15-28, 2018
N/A 46%39%15%+/-3.01,033
Quinnipiac University
October 22-28, 2018
N/A 51%46%3%+/-3.51,078
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies
October 25-26, 2018
N/A 52%42%5%+/-4.0588
University of Texas/Texas Tribune
October 15-21, 2018
N/A 51%45%4%+/-3.2927
GBA Strategies
October 18-21, 2018
End Citizens United 50%46%4%+/-3.21,298
Reuters
October 12-18, 2018
N/A 49%44%7%+/-3.21,298
CNN/SRSS
October 9-13, 2018
N/A 52%45%3%+/-4.5716
WPA Intelligence
October 8-13, 2018
Club for Growth Action 52%43%5%+/-3.5801
New York Times/Siena College
October 8-11, 2018
N/A 51%43%6%+/-3.6800
Quinnipiac University
October 3-9, 2018
N/A 54%45%2%+/-4.4730
CBS News/YouGov
October 2-5, 2018
N/A 50%44%6%+/-4.2881
Emerson
October 1-5, 2018
N/A 47%42%11%+/-4.5500
AVERAGES 50.5% 43.86% 5.57% +/-3.61 969
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

West Virginia[edit]

U.S. Senate election in West Virginia, General election (Manchin vs. Morrisey)
Poll Poll sponsor Joe Manchin (D) Patrick Morrisey (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Emerson College
(October 28-31, 2018)
N/A 47%42%11%+/-3.21,013
Research America
(October 19-30, 2018)
The Metro News
The Dominion Post
45%40%16%+/-4.9400
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
(October 16-18, 2018)
National Republican Senatorial Committee 42%44%15%+/-4.0600
PopPolling Research
(October 13-15, 2018)
N/A 53%47%0%+/-3.5789
Strategic Research Associates, LLC
(October 12-19, 2018)
Gray Television 52%36%12%+/-3.8650
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Race ratings[edit]

The following table compares the race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections. It was updated biweekly.

Special elections to the 115th U.S. Congress[edit]

See also: Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)

In the 17 special elections called to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress in 2017 and 2018, nine Republicans and eight Democrats won. Four elections resulted in a partisan flip:


Results of special elections to the 115th Congress
Race Election date Incumbent Winner Election MOV Previous election MOV 2016 Presidential election MOV[3]
Kansas' 4th Congressional District April 11, 2017 Republican Party Mike Pompeo Republican Party Ron Estes R+6 R+31 R+27
Montana's At-Large Congressional District May 25, 2017 Republican Party Ryan Zinke Republican Party Greg Gianforte R+6 R+15 R+21
California's 34th Congressional District June 6, 2017 Democratic Party Xavier Becerra Democratic Party Jimmy Gomez D+18[4] D+54[4] D+73
Georgia's 6th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Tom Price Republican Party Karen Handel R+4 R+24 R+1
South Carolina's 5th Congressional District June 20, 2017 Republican Party Mick Mulvaney Republican Party Ralph Norman R+3 R+20 R+18
Utah's 3rd Congressional District November 7, 2017 Republican Party Jason Chaffetz Republican Party John Curtis R+32 R+47 R+24
U.S. Senate in Alabama December 12, 2017 Republican Party Jeff Sessions Democratic Party Doug Jones D+2 R+28 R+28
Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District March 13, 2018 Republican Party Tim Murphy Democratic Party Conor Lamb D+0[5] R+100 R+19
Arizona's 8th Congressional District April 24, 2018 Republican Party Trent Franks Republican Party Debbie Lesko R+6 R+38 R+21
Texas' 27th Congressional District June 30, 2018 Republican Party Blake Farenthold Republican Party Michael Cloud R+23 R+24 R+23
Ohio's 12th Congressional District August 7, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Tiberi Republican Party Troy Balderson R+1 R+40 R+11
Michigan's 13th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party John Conyers Jr. Democratic Party Brenda Jones D+78 D+61 D+61
U.S. Senate in Minnesota November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Al Franken Democratic Party Tina Smith D+11 D+10 D+2
U.S. Senate in Mississippi November 6, 2018 Republican Party Thad Cochran Republican Party Cindy Hyde-Smith R+8 R+22 R+18
New York's 25th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Democratic Party Louise Slaughter Democratic Party Joseph Morelle D+16 D+12 D+16
Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Patrick Meehan Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+6 R+19 D+2
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District November 6, 2018 Republican Party Charlie Dent Democratic Party Susan Wild D+0 R+20 R+8


Incumbents not running for re-election[edit]

See also: List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018

U.S. senators not running for re-election, 2018[edit]

  • Democratic Party 0 Democrats
  • Republican Party 3 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
Bob CorkerRepublican Party RepublicanTennessee
Jeff FlakeRepublican Party RepublicanArizona
Orrin HatchRepublican Party RepublicanUtah

Historical comparison of incumbents not running for re-election[edit]

The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.

Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018
Year Chamber Democrats not seeking re-election Republicans not seeking re-election Total not seeking re-election Democrats leaving office early Republicans leaving office early Total leaving office early
2018
U.S. Senate 0 3 3 1 2 3
U.S. House 18 34 52 3 14 17
Total 18 37 55 4 16 20
2016
U.S. Senate 3 2 5 0 0 0
U.S. House 16 24 40 2 5 7
Total 19 26 45 2 5 7
2014
U.S. Senate 5 2 7 3 2 5
U.S. House 16 25 41 3 6 9
Total 21 27 48 6 8 14
2012
U.S. Senate 6 3 10[6] 0 0 0
U.S. House 23 20 43 4 1 5
Total 29 23 53 4 1 5

Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report[edit]

See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018

Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that nearly 13 percent of incumbent U.S. representatives and senators would not be on the 2018 general election ballot.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Of the U.S. representatives and U.S. senators who could have been eligible to run for re-election in 2018, 58 of them (12.9 percent) either decided not to do so or were defeated in a partisan primary before reaching the general election.
  • In those 58 open seats where an incumbent either decided not to seek re-election or was defeated in a primary before the general election, there were 16 races where the incumbent's district overlapped at least one pivot county (a county that voted twice to elect President Obama in 2008 and 2012, but then switched to supporting President Trump for 2016).
  • In 22 races, the incumbent chose instead to run for a statewide office or (in one case) for U.S. president. One of every 10 U.S. House races nationwide in 2018 featured just one major party candidate participating in the general election.
  • Outcome of recent presidential and gubernatorial elections[edit]

    The following section compares data from recent presidential and gubernatorial elections with the party of the incumbent in each 2018 Senate race. These trends were used as an early indicator of expected competitive Senate races in the 2018 elections. All of these statistics predicted that the Democratic Party would be more vulnerable than the Republican Party in the 2018 Senate elections.

    Key endorsements[edit]

    Barack Obama[edit]

    See also: Endorsements by Barack Obama

    Donald Trump[edit]

    See also: Endorsements by Donald Trump


    Wave election analysis[edit]

    See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

    The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

    Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

    Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

    The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

    U.S. Senate wave elections
    Year President Party Election type Senate seats change Senate majority[7]
    1932 Hoover R Presidential -13 D (flipped)
    1958 Eisenhower R Second midterm -12 D
    1946 Truman D First midterm -10 R (flipped)
    1980 Carter D Presidential -9 R (flipped)
    2014 Obama D Second midterm -9 R (flipped)
    1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -8 D
    2008 George W. Bush D Presidential -8 D
    1926 Coolidge R First midterm[8] -7 R
    1930 Hoover R First midterm -7 R
    1986 Reagan R Second midterm -7 D (flipped)

    Analysis of federal elections, 2018[edit]

    See also: Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018


    All 435 U.S. House seats and 33 U.S. Senate seats were up for regular elections in the 2018 midterms. Heading into the election, the Republican Party held a majority in both chambers.

    All federal elections:
    Ballotpedia's 2018 Candidate Connection report
    United States Congress elections, 2018
    Ballotpedia's Top 15 elections to watch, 2018
    Special elections to the 115th United States Congress (2017-2018)
    List of candidates who ran in U.S. Congress elections, 2018
    List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018
    Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
    Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 congressional elections
    Incumbents defeated in 2018 congressional elections
    Incumbent win rates by state
    New members elected in 2018 congressional elections
    Comparison of state delegations to the 115th and 116th Congresses
    Congressional elections decided by 10 percent or less, 2018
    Results of federal elected officials seeking other offices, 2018
    Noteworthy minor party candidates in the 2018 elections
    PredictIt markets in the 2018 elections
    Fundraising in Congressional elections, 2018
    Battleground election polls, 2018
    Timeline of events impacting 2018 congressional elections
    Media coverage of United States Congress elections, 2018
    U.S. Senate elections:
    U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2018
    United States Senate elections, 2018
    Control of the U.S. Senate
    States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018
    U.S. House elections:
    U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018
    United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
    Control of the U.S. House
    U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
    U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016
    U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 2018


    Election issues[edit]

    Click below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.

    Throughout the course of the 115th Congress, we curated statements and reactions by members of Congress on a variety of different policy areas and topics. Click on a tile below to read about what members of the 115th Congress said about the following issues.


    See also[edit]

    Footnotes[edit]

    1. 1.0 1.1 Politico, "Republican Control of the Senate Hangs by a Thread," December 21, 2017
    2. Slate, "Are You Dreaming of Democrats Taking the Senate in 2018? Time to Wake Up." November 14, 2016
    3. Daily Kos, "2008, 2012, & 2016 Presidential Election Results by District," accessed July 11, 2018
    4. 4.0 4.1 Both general election candidates were Democrats.
    5. Lamb won by a margin of 0.4 percentage points.
    6. Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
    7. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
    8. Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.



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