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November 8, 2022 |
As a result of the 2022 U.S. Senate elections, Democrats retained control of the U.S. Senate, gaining 51 seats to Republicans' 49.[1]
Heading into Election Day, the U.S. Senate was evenly divided at 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris (D) casting tie-breaking votes, giving Democrats an effective majority.[2] Republicans needed a net pickup of one seat to gain control.
Democrats gained a seat Republicans formerly held, as John Fetterman (D) defeated Mehmet Oz (R) in the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not seek re-election.
The U.S. Senate election in Georgia advanced to a Dec. 6 runoff. Incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) defeated Herschel Walker (R) in the runoff.
Two special elections also took place on November 8, 2022. Markwayne Mullin (R) won the special election held to fill the final four years of Sen. Jim Inhofe's (R-Okla.) six-year term that began in 2021. Inhofe announced he would resign from office effective January 3, 2023.[3] The other special election was held to fill the final weeks of the six-year term that Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) was elected to in 2016 before becoming vice president. That U.S. Senate seat was also up for regular election in 2022. Incumbent Sen. Alex Padilla (D), who replaced Harris in the Senate, won both the special election and the regular election.
Thirty five seats — 14 held by Democrats and 21[4] held by Republicans — were up for election in 2022. Republicans were defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats gained the seat in Pennsylvania after Fetterman defeated Oz, while Republicans held the seat in Wisconsin after incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) defeated Mandela Barnes (D). Democrats were not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.
Seven of the seats up for election were open[5], meaning the incumbents were not running for re-election. Ahead of the election, Democrats held one of those seats while Republicans held five, including Pennsylvania, the only seat to change party hands.
All twenty-eight incumbents who ran for re-election won. This was the first time since 1914 that no Senate incumbent who ran lost re-election.[6]
Thirty-two of the 34 seats up for regular election in 2022 were last up for election in 2016. Georgia and Arizona had seats up for election in 2022 that were up for special election in 2020.
On this page, you will find information on the following:
Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. Senate election results.
Democrats gained a net of one seat in the 2022 general elections, maintaining control of the chamber. Republicans held 49 seats following the elections, while Democrats held 49 seats and independents who caucus with Democrats held two. After the elections, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she had changed her party affiliation from Democrat to independent. Sinema said she would not caucus with Republicans and kept the committee assignments she had as a member of the Democratic caucus.[7]
U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | As of November 8, 2022 | After the 2022 Election | |
Democratic Party | 48[8] | 48 | |
Republican Party | 50 | 49 | |
Independent | 2[8] | 3[8][9] | |
Vacancies | 0 | 0 | |
Total | 100 | 100 |
This table shows the results of the U.S. Senate elections on November 8, 2022. There were 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2022—14 seats held by Democrats and 21 held by Republicans. Of those, Democrats won 15 seats and Republicans won 20 seats. In 2022, Democrats had a net gain of one seat.
The map below shows what seats were up for election, the incumbent heading into the election in each state, the 2022 winner in each state, whether each seat was open, and race ratings before the election.
The following table details the margins of victory in U.S. Senate elections in 2022.
The average margin of victory for U.S. Senate races was 19%, larger than the 18.1% average margin in 2020. The average MOV was 21.3 percentage points for Republicans and 16 percentage points for Democrats.
The narrowest margin in any U.S. Senate election in 2022 was 0.50 percentage points in the U.S. Senate election in Nevada between Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Adam Laxalt (R). The largest MOV was in Hawaii, where Brian Schatz (D) defeated Bob McDermott (R) by a margin of 52.17 percentage points.
U.S. Senate margins of victory, 2022 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Votes cast | Winner | Winner votes | Runner-up | Runner-up votes | Margin | Margin (%) |
U.S. Senate, Alabama | 1,408,278 | Katie Britt | 940,054 | Will Boyd | 435,431 | 504,623 | 35.83% |
U.S. Senate, Alaska | 253,271 | Lisa Murkowski | 135,972 | Kelly Tshibaka | 117,299 | 18,673 | 7.37% |
U.S. Senate, Arizona | 2,572,294 | Mark Kelly | 1,322,027 | Blake Masters | 1,196,308 | 125,719 | 4.89% |
U.S. Senate, Arkansas | 893,251 | John Boozman | 587,990 | Natalie James | 276,792 | 311,198 | 34.84% |
U.S. Senate, California | 5,415,707 | Alex Padilla | 3,202,616 | Mark Meuser | 2,213,091 | 989,525 | 18.27% |
U.S. Senate, Colorado | 2,500,201 | Michael Bennet | 1,397,170 | Joe O'Dea | 1,031,693 | 365,477 | 14.62% |
U.S. Senate, Connecticut | 1,259,887 | Richard Blumenthal | 723,864 | Leora Levy | 535,943 | 187,921 | 14.92% |
U.S. Senate, Florida | 7,758,014 | Marco Rubio | 4,474,847 | Val Demings | 3,201,522 | 1,273,325 | 16.41% |
U.S. Senate, Georgia | 3,541,877 | Raphael Warnock | 1,820,633 | Herschel Walker | 1,721,244 | 99,389 | 2.81% |
U.S. Senate, Hawaii | 304,131 | Brian Schatz | 227,825 | Bob McDermott | 69,155 | 158,670 | 52.17% |
U.S. Senate, Idaho | 111,343 | Mike Crapo | 54,745 | David Roth | 47,225 | 7,520 | 6.75% |
U.S. Senate, Illinois | 4,098,896 | Tammy Duckworth | 2,329,136 | Kathy Salvi | 1,701,055 | 628,081 | 15.32% |
U.S. Senate, Indiana | 1,860,154 | Todd Young | 1,090,390 | Thomas McDermott Jr. | 704,480 | 385,910 | 20.75% |
U.S. Senate, Iowa | 1,191,336 | Chuck Grassley | 672,242 | Michael Franken | 519,094 | 153,148 | 12.86% |
U.S. Senate, Kansas | 1,004,956 | Jerry Moran | 602,976 | Mark R. Holland | 372,214 | 230,762 | 22.96% |
U.S. Senate, Kentucky | 1,473,325 | Rand Paul | 910,397 | Charles Booker | 562,928 | 347,469 | 23.58% |
U.S. Senate, Louisiana | 1,326,448 | John Neely Kennedy | 822,298 | Gary Chambers | 235,077 | 587,221 | 44.27% |
U.S. Senate, Maryland | 1,515,974 | Chris Van Hollen | 922,821 | Chris Chaffee | 593,153 | 329,668 | 21.75% |
U.S. Senate, Missouri | 1,397,406 | Eric Schmitt | 785,330 | Trudy Busch Valentine | 579,166 | 206,164 | 14.75% |
U.S. Senate, Nevada | 988,985 | Catherine Cortez Masto | 481,659 | Adam Laxalt | 476,676 | 4,983 | 0.50% |
U.S. Senate, New Hampshire | 552,150 | Maggie Hassan | 298,351 | Don Bolduc | 243,583 | 54,768 | 9.92% |
U.S. Senate, New York | 5,661,223 | Chuck Schumer | 3,189,890 | Joe Pinion | 2,441,975 | 747,915 | 13.21% |
U.S. Senate, North Carolina | 3,723,362 | Ted Budd | 1,887,701 | Cheri Beasley | 1,753,203 | 134,498 | 3.61% |
U.S. Senate, North Dakota | 202,353 | John Hoeven | 114,031 | Katrina Christiansen | 51,076 | 62,955 | 31.11% |
U.S. Senate, Ohio | 4,031,121 | J.D. Vance | 2,147,898 | Tim Ryan | 1,883,223 | 264,675 | 6.57% |
U.S. Senate, Oklahoma (Special election) | 1,148,243 | Markwayne Mullin | 709,169 | Kendra Horn | 404,686 | 304,483 | 26.52% |
U.S. Senate, Oklahoma | 1,149,603 | James Lankford | 739,302 | Madison Horn | 368,969 | 370,333 | 32.21% |
U.S. Senate, Oregon | 1,327,012 | Ron Wyden | 736,343 | Jo Rae Perkins | 554,413 | 181,930 | 13.71% |
U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania | 5,224,793 | John Fetterman | 2,637,598 | Mehmet Oz | 2,460,602 | 176,996 | 3.39% |
U.S. Senate, South Carolina | 1,197,682 | Tim Scott | 742,616 | Krystle Matthews | 455,066 | 287,550 | 24.01% |
U.S. Senate, South Dakota | 176,985 | John Thune | 125,483 | Brian Bengs | 44,405 | 81,078 | 45.81% |
U.S. Senate, Utah | 658,805 | Mike Lee | 363,620 | Evan McMullin | 272,477 | 91,143 | 13.83% |
U.S. Senate, Vermont | 285,411 | Peter Welch | 195,295 | Gerald Malloy | 80,121 | 115,174 | 40.35% |
U.S. Senate, Washington | 1,722,060 | Patty Murray | 980,199 | Tiffany Smiley | 738,618 | 241,581 | 14.03% |
U.S. Senate, Wisconsin | 2,641,962 | Ron Johnson | 1,334,680 | Mandela Barnes | 1,307,282 | 27,398 | 1.04% |
The following table lists incumbents who didn't seek re-election in 2022.
In 2020, 40 incumbent members of Congress—36 representatives and four senators—didn't seek re-election.
Retired from public office, 2022 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Party | State | Date announced | |||
Richard Burr | Republican | North Carolina | July 20, 2016[10] | |||
Pat Toomey | Republican | Pennsylvania | Oct. 5, 2020[11] | |||
Rob Portman | Republican | Ohio | Jan. 25, 2021[12] | |||
Richard Shelby | Republican | Alabama | Feb. 8, 2021[13] | |||
Roy Blunt | Republican | Missouri | March 8, 2021[14] | |||
Patrick Leahy | Democratic | Vermont | November 15, 2021[15] |
The following map displays all states that held U.S. Senate elections in 2022 shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Battleground races are highlighted in brighter colors. Hover over a state for more information.
Battleground U.S. Senate elections, 2022 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Open seat? | 2016 margin | 2020 presidential margin | |
Alaska | Lisa Murkowski | No | R+15.2 | R+10.0 | |
Arizona | Mark Kelly | No | D+2.4 | D+0.3 | |
Florida | Marco Rubio | No | R+7.7 | R+3.3 | |
Georgia | Raphael Warnock | No | D+2.1 | D+0.2 | |
Missouri | Roy Blunt | Yes | R+2.8 | R+15.4 | |
Nevada | Catherine Cortez Masto | No | D+2.4 | D+2.4 | |
New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan | No | D+0.1 | D+7.3 | |
North Carolina | Richard Burr | Yes | R+5.7 | R+1.3 | |
Ohio | Rob Portman | Yes | R+20.8 | R+8.1 | |
Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey | Yes | R+1.5 | D+1.2 | |
Utah | Mike Lee | No | R+41.0 | R+20.5 | |
Wisconsin | Ron Johnson | No | R+3.4 | D+0.7 |
The following table compared U.S. Senate race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections.
Incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) defeated Kelly Tshibaka (R), and Patricia Chesbro (D) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Alaska on November 8, 2022.
The three candidates advanced from the top-four primary held on August 16, 2022, the first time Alaska used such a system in a Senate race since voters there approved it in 2020. All candidates, regardless of party affiliation, ran in a single primary. Murkowski, Tshibaka, Chesbro, and Buzz Kelley (R) received the most votes and advanced to the general election, where the winner was decided using ranked-choice voting.
On September 12, 2022, Kelley withdrew from the race and endorsed Tshibaka.[16] His name still appeared on the ballot.
Murkowski and Tshibaka led in media attention and together won more than 80% of the primary vote, with Murkowski receiving 45% and Tshibaka receiving 38.6%. In July 2022, FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley and Zoha Qamar wrote, "the ranked choice voting process seems likely to set up a contest between the two leading Republicans, [Murkowski and Tshibaka]".[17]
Murkowski first took office in 2002. Lisa Murkowski's father, Frank Murkowski (R), was a senator from 1981 to 2002, when he resigned to become governor of Alaska. After taking office, the elder Murkowski appointed his daughter to the U.S. Senate seat. After losing the Republican Senate primary in 2010, Lisa Murkowski successfully ran for re-election as a write-in candidate, becoming the second senator in U.S. history to do so. In 2016, Murkowski was re-elected after defeating second-place finisher Joe Miller (L) 44.4% to 29.2%.[18][19]
Murkowski highlighted her seniority and said her willingness to work with Democrats helped steer federal funding to Alaska. Murkowski said, "This race is about who can deliver best for Alaska. Through my seniority and ability to work across party lines, I’m getting real results for Alaska."[20] Murkowski also highlighted her support for energy development in the state and said her vote for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act had already brought billions to Alaska.[21]
Tshibaka, a former commissioner at the Alaska Department of Administration, accused Murkowski of not using her seniority to block more of President Joe Biden's (D) agenda. Tshibaka said, "Lisa Murkowski has enabled Biden’s agenda by casting the tie-breaking deciding vote to advance his anti-energy Interior Secretary nominee and confirming over 90% of his radical nominees."[22][23] Tshibaka also focused on economic issues and said she supports a Parental Bill of Rights that would give parents "a right to be fully informed and to approve of any sex education, gender identification, or race theory material being presented or discussed with their child."[23]
In February 2021, Murkowski voted to convict then-President Donald Trump (R) after the U.S. House impeached him over the events surrounding the January 6 breach of the Capitol.Cite error: Closing </ref>
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U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and fellow Alaska U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) endorsed Murkowski. Murkowski also had the endorsements of several Democratic elected officials, including Alaska's At-Large U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola (D), Sen. Joe Manchin (D) and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D).Cite error: Closing </ref>
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tag[26][27]
Ballotpedia tracked all noteworthy endorsements related to this race.[28] To view a full list of these endorsements, click here.
Chesbro, a retired educator, highlighted her support for renewable energy. In her responses to Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, Chesbro said, “We cannot turn off the spigot on fossil fuels. We can invest in our future through developing our renewable resources to create the energy on which we depend.” Chesbro also focused on her support for abortion rights.[29]
Incumbent Mark Kelly (D) defeated Blake Masters (R) in the general election for one of Arizona's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022.
Kelly won a November 2020 special election following the death of U.S. Sen. John McCain (R). Before joining Congress, Kelly served as a U.S. Navy pilot and a NASA astronaut. Kelly and his wife, former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D), founded Americans for Responsible Solutions (known at the time of the 2022 election as Giffords) in 2013. Kelly said he was "focused on representing Arizonans – all Arizonans – and I’ll keep working with Republicans and Democrats to support hardworking families and get our economy back on track."[30] Kelly's campaign website highlighted affordable health care, providing competitive educational opportunities, increasing wages to cover the cost of living, and funding federal benefits like Social Security and Medicare as policy goals in Washington.[31] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Kelly cumulatively raised $81.8 million and spent $75.9 million.
Masters, a venture capitalist, became president of the Thiel Foundation in 2015 and served as COO of Thiel Capital from 2018 to 2022. Masters' campaign website said he ran "because the same old establishment politicians and the same old establishment candidates have failed us. [Masters] brings a wealth of experience to the table on how to defeat not just the progressive Democrats, but also the weak and compromised RINO Republicans." Masters' campaign website listed public safety as his top priority. He wrote, "I am so sick of this crime and chaos. It’s time to turn this ship around. We need to get control of our border. We need to punish criminals severely. And we need to project strength and competence abroad."[32] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the FEC, Masters cumulatively raised $12.3 million and spent $9.7 million.
The previous two Senate elections—held in 2018 and 2020—were both decided by 2.4 percentage points. In 2020, Kelly defeated incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R) in a special election 51.2% to 48.8%.[33] In 2018, Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated McSally 50.0% to 47.6%.
The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Arizona were similarly close. Joe Biden (D) won the state of Arizona by 0.3 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump (R) won the state in the 2016 presidential election by 3.6 percentage points.
Incumbent Marco Rubio (R) defeated Val Demings (D) and seven other candidates in the general election for U.S. Senate in Florida on November 8, 2022.
The Hill's Caroline Vakil said, "Florida’s Senate race is considered one of the most competitive this November."[34] In 2018, the last U.S. Senate race in the state before this one, Rick Scott (R) defeated incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by 0.2 percentage points. In 2016, incumbent Marco Rubio won re-election by a margin of 7.7 percentage points.
Rubio was first elected to the Senate in 2010 to replace retiring incumbent Mel Martinez (R). In the general election, Rubio defeated Kendrick B. Meek (D) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I) with 49% of the vote. Rubio was a member of the Florida House of Representatives from 2000 to 2008, serving as majority leader from 2003 to 2006 and House speaker from 2006 to 2008. Rubio emphasized his Senate career; according to his campaign website, "As a U.S. Senator, Marco has advanced commonsense, conservative ideas that address the issues Americans face."[35]
Demings was elected to the U.S. House in 2016, representing Florida's 10th Congressional District. Demings served on the Committee on Homeland Security and the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Before her time in office, Demings worked in law enforcement for nearly three decades. From 2007 to 2012, Demings was the chief of police in Orlando, Florida.[36] Demings said she was "running for U.S. Senate to fight for every Floridian to have that same opportunity to live the American Dream."[37]
Dennis Misigoy (L), Steven B. Grant, Tuan Nguyen, Uloma Ekpete, Edward A. Gray, Howard Knepper, and Moses Quiles also ran.
The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Florida were both decided by less than 4 percentage points. Incumbent President Donald Trump (R) won the state over Joe Biden (D) by 3.3 percentage points in 2020. Trump won the state over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 by 1.2 percentage points.
Incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R) advanced to a runoff election on December 6, 2022. Warnock, Walker, and Chase Oliver (L) ran to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate.
In Georgia, a general election advances to a runoff between the two top finishers if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. Since none of the candidates received this level of support on November 8 in the general election, a runoff was scheduled to take place on December 6. Warnock won his 2021 special runoff election by a margin of 2 percentage points.
After former U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) resigned for health reasons in 2019, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appointed Kelly Loeffler (R) to this seat until a special election could be held to replace Isakson. Since no candidate won a majority of the vote in the special election on November 3, 2020, Loeffler and Warnock advanced to a runoff on January 5, 2021. Warnock defeated Loeffler in the runoff election, becoming the first Democrat to represent Georgia in the U.S. Senate since 2005.[38][39][40]
Warnock served as the senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. also served as pastor. Warnock co-sponsored the Warnock-Cruz Amendment, which provided support for a bipartisan infrastructure project connecting Georgia and Texas. Warnock explained his decision to work with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), saying, “There is a road that runs through our humanity…that is larger than politics, bigger than partisan bickering, certainly bigger than race…and my job as a legislator, and our job as citizens, is to find our way to that road that connects us to one another…so that every child can have access to a good, quality education, so that everybody can have affordable health care…Our job is to build out that road!”[41] As of November 2022, Warnock’s campaign had raised more than $123 million.[42]
Walker was a Hall of Fame professional football player who attended the University of Georgia, represented the U.S. in the 1992 Olympics, and owned two food-supply businesses. Former President Donald Trump (R) appointed Walker to the Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition in 2018. Walker said he also ran to save "our country and the great state of Georgia from President Biden’s disastrous agenda which has led to higher prices, out-of-control crime, dangerous open borders, and ‘America Last’ foreign policy. Weak leaders create bad results — and we are sick and tired of politicians not being held accountable for their actions."[43] As of November 2022, Walker’s campaign had raised nearly $38 million.[44][45]
Eric Schmitt (R) defeated Trudy Busch Valentine (D), Paul Venable (Constitution Party), and Jonathan Dine (L) in the general election for one of Missouri's U.S. Senate seats on November 8, 2022. Sen. Roy Blunt (R), who first took office in 2011, did not seek re-election.[46]
Busch Valentine, the heiress of the Anheuser-Busch beer company, worked as a nurse.[47] Busch Valentine said she wanted to fight the opioid epidemic, improve access to quality healthcare, and advocate for women's rights.[48] She also criticized the state of politics in Missouri and called it divisive. "Our communities are strong, but our politics are broken. Too often neighbors and families just stop talking to each other, and the politicians in Washington continue to divide us even further," she said.[49] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Busch Valentine cumulatively raised $12.0 million and spent $11.7 million.
Schmitt was appointed attorney general of Missouri in January 2019. He was treasurer of Missouri from 2017 to 2019, and a member of the Missouri State Senate from 2008 to 2016. Schmitt ran on his record as attorney general and the lawsuits he filed against the federal government. Schmitt said, "[I have] taken a blow torch to Biden’s unconstitutional and unlawful policies to protect the America First Agenda." He also said that he was a "proven Conservative [who will] take the fight to the Senate and save our values, our culture, and our country."[50] Based on pre-general election reports filed with the FEC, Schmitt cumulatively raised $5.7 million and spent $5.5 million.
At the time of the election, three independent election forecasters rated the general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican. Donald Trump (R) won the state in the 2020 presidential election by a 15.4% margin. At the time of the 2022 election, the last time a Democratic candidate won a statewide election in Missouri was in 2012, when U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill and Gov. Jay Nixon (D) both won re-election. Missouri's other U.S. senator, Josh Hawley (R), won the 2018 election by a 5.8% margin.
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) defeated former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) and three others in the general election for U.S. Senate in Nevada on November 8, 2022.
Time's Philip Elliott wrote, "The match-up [between Cortez Masto and] Republican Adam Laxalt is seen as a two-point race at best—and one that could decide if the Democrats hold their narrow majority in the Senate."[51]
Sen. Harry Reid (D) held the seat from 1987 to 2017. Statewide elections in Nevada in 2016 and 2018 were decided by five percentage points or fewer.
In the Nevada 2018 U.S. senate race, Jacky Rosen defeated incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R) by five percentage points. In 2016, Cortez Masto defeated then-incumbent Joe Heck (R) by 2.4 percentage points. The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Nevada were similarly close. Joe Biden (D) won the state of Nevada by 2.4 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Hillary Clinton (D) won the state in the 2016 presidential election by 2.4 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor said demographic shifts were one reason for the state's competitiveness. "Nevada is a uniquely transient state: half of those on the state's voter rolls have registered since 2016, when Cortez Masto was first elected," Taylor said. "Unaffiliated voters became the largest bloc in the state last fall," Taylor also said.[52]
Time's Elliott said the state's Latino population would play an important role in the election's outcome. "Strategists anticipate about 15% to 20% of the electorate to identify as Hispanic or Latino—and could be even bigger as both sides are working to register new voters," Elliot said.[51]
Cortez Masto, the first Latina elected to the U.S. Senate, took office in 2017 after defeating Heck (R) 47.1% to 44.7%. Before taking office, Cortez Masto served as Nevada’s attorney general from 2007 to 2015.[53]
Laxalt succeeded Cortez Masto as state attorney general, serving from 2015 to 2019. Laxalt was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2018. Steve Sisolak (D) defeated Laxalt 49.4% to 45.3% in the general election. Laxalt is the grandson of former Nevada governor and U.S. Senator Paul Laxalt (R), and is the son of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici (R-N.M.).[54][55]
Cortez Masto focused on her support for abortion rights and criticized Laxalt for past comments he made about the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision.[56] Cortez Masto also said that if Laxalt was elected, Senate Republicans would seek to implement a national ban on abortion. "If Mitch McConnell retakes the Senate, he won’t hesitate to bring a national abortion ban bill to a vote," Cortez Masto said.[57] Cortez Masto also highlighted her vote for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 (IRA), a measure she said would reduce healthcare costs for Nevadans. [58][59]
Laxalt focused on economic issues and said Cortez Masto's support for President Biden's economic initiatives contributed to the rise in inflation.[60] Laxalt said that, as senator, he would "work quickly to restore fiscal sanity by stopping the spending spree that has led to record-breaking inflation."[61] Laxalt also focused on immigration. Laxalt said he supported finishing the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and said "there [was] nothing humane about an open border policy that encourages caravans of desperate people to risk their lives only to encounter overwhelmed border facilities."[62]
Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates included Barry Rubinson (Independent American Party), Neil Scott (Libertarian), and Barry Lindemann (Independent).
Incumbent Maggie Hassan (D) defeated Don Bolduc (R) and Jeremy Kauffman (L) in the general election for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire on November 8, 2022.
Hassan took office in 2017. Hassan said she worked with Republicans to end surprise medical billing and expand broadband access. She emphasized her support for a gas tax holiday through 2022 and said she worked to lower costs for residents. Hassan said Bolduc "[was] running on an extreme, anti-choice agenda and would be a clear yes vote to ban abortion in all fifty states."[63][64]
Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general, said the election "[was] about the economy, fiscal responsibility and the safety and security of this nation." He attributed inflation and high gas prices to Hassan and other Democrats. Bolduc's campaign ads emphasized his military background and called Hassan a career politician. Bolduc said he'd support allowing states to set abortion policy.[65]
For more on candidates' backgrounds and key messages, see below.
As of October 19, 2022, Hassan spent $36.7 million. Bolduc spent $1.9 million.[66] In 2020, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) spent $19 million on her re-election bid, and challenger Bryant Messner (R) spent $7 million.[67] In Hassan's first Senate bid in 2016, she spent $19 million to incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte's (R) $16 million.[68]
In the state's 2020 Senate election, Shaheen defeated Messner by a margin of 15.6 percentage points. In 2016, Hassan defeated Ayotte by 0.1 percentage points.
President Joe Biden (D) won New Hampshire by 7.3 percentage points in 2020. Hillary Clinton (D) won the state in the 2016 presidential election by 0.3 percentage points.
U.S. Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state supreme court justice Cheri Beasley (D) and seven other candidates in the general election for U.S. Senate in North Carolina on November 8, 2022.
Budd was first elected to North Carolina's 13th Congressional District in 2016 and was re-elected in 2018 and 2020. Prior to serving in the U.S. House, Budd worked as an investment analyst and owner of a gun range and store.[69] Budd said he was running because he was "gravely concerned about our country’s future, because North Carolina families, our values, and our jobs are under attack every day in Washington."[70]
Beasley served as a North Carolina district court justice from 1999 to 2008 and as a judge on the North Carolina Court of Appeals from 2008 to 2012. Gov. Bev Perdue (D) appointed Beasley to the North Carolina Supreme Court in 2012, where she was chief justice from 2019 to 2020. Beasley also worked as an assistant public defender and a partner at McGuireWoods LLP.[71][72] Beasley said she was running to "fight to lower costs, create good-paying jobs and expand access to affordable, quality health care in every part of North Carolina."[73]
Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R)—who first took office in 2005—did not seek re-election, which made this an open seat race. In 2020, incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) defeated Cal Cunningham (D), 49% to 47%. In 2016, Burr defeated Deborah Ross (D), 51% to 45%.
The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in North Carolina were both decided by less than 4 percentage points. In the 2020 election, incumbent President Donald Trump (R) won the state over President Joe Biden (D), 49.9% to 48.6%. In the 2016 election, Trump carried North Carolina with 49.8% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 46.2%. At the start of the 2022 election cycle, Inside Elections rated this state Battleground Republican.[74]
J.D. Vance (R) defeated Tim Ryan (D) in the November 8 general election for U.S. Senate in Ohio. Incumbent Rob Portman (R), who was first elected in 2010, did not run for re-election.[75]
Ryan was elected to the U.S. House in 2002. He was re-elected to represent District 13 in 2020 following an unsuccessful presidential campaign. Ryan campaigned on a range of economic issues, including revitalizing the state's manufacturing industry, a federal $15 minimum wage, the PRO Act, renegotiating existing foreign trade deals, and expanding affordable healthcare.[76] According to the Dayton Daily News, Ryan's campaign focused on blue-collar workers and issues.[77] Ryan said, "You know, I think the last thing that the United States Senate needs is another millionaire who got funded by a billionaire to the tune of $15 million or who comes out of Silicon Valley."[78] Sherrod Brown (D), Ohio's other U.S. senator, endorsed Ryan.[79]
Vance served in the U.S. Marine Corps from 2003 to 2007, before working in venture capital in San Francisco. In 2016, he wrote Hillbilly Elegy, a memoir about growing up in Middletown, Ohio. Vance campaigned on bringing manufacturing back to Ohio, fixing the country's immigration system and completing the wall along the southern border, and breaking up large technology companies.[80] Vance said, "We really need people who are solving the big problems. We’ve had way too much time of politicians trying to tinker around the edges just trying to fix the superficial."[78] Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Vance.[81]
Donald Trump won Ohio by eight percentage points in 2016 and 2020. Portman won re-election in 2016 by 19 percentage points. Sherrod Brown (D), Ohio's other U.S. Senator at the time of the election, last won re-election in 2018 by seven percentage points.
John Fetterman (D) defeated Mehmet Oz (R) and six other candidates in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate election on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey (R) did not seek re-election.
Fetterman served as Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor. In 2018, he was elected 58% to 41% on a joint ticket with incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D). In a campaign ad, Fetterman said, "Our economy is a mess because of Washington, [and] the rich, powerful, the insiders, and the lobbyists. [...] We must make more stuff in America, cut taxes for working families, [and] Congress shouldn't play in the stock market."[82] To read more about Fetterman's key messages, click here.
This race was Oz’s first run for political office. Oz was a retired surgeon and hosted The Dr. Oz Show on daytime television from 2009 to 2022.[83] In a campaign ad, Oz said, "We're facing rising crime, crushing inflation, lives unraveling. [...] I'll heal us, and bring change to our divided nation. Doctors fix big things. I fixed hearts and fought for every last one of them."[84] To read more about Oz's key messages, click here.
CBS News' Sarah Ewall-Wice wrote, "The Senate race in Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground for both parties fighting over who will control the Senate after the November elections. Democrats see it as a possible pickup, with GOP Senator Pat Toomey retiring."[85] Roll Call's Niels Lesniewski wrote, "Keeping the seat in Republican hands is an important part of the party's effort to flip control of the 50-50 Senate."[86]
The Philadelphia Inquirer's Julia Terruso wrote about the candidates' campaigns, saying, "Fetterman’s campaign holds large, energetic rallies, [while] Oz stages smaller community-based events." Terruso also wrote, "Both candidates have slammed the other’s events as evidence of the other’s weaknesses. Fetterman’s campaign tweets out crowd photos, claiming Oz can’t fill big rooms. Oz’s campaign points to Fetterman’s 10-minute speeches and refusal to take reporter or audience questions afterward in an attempt to cast doubt on Fetterman’s health."[87] Fetterman had a stroke on May 15, 2022.
In Pennsylvania's 2018 senate race, incumbent Bob Casey Jr. (D) defeated Lou Barletta (R) 56% to 43%. In 2016, Toomey won re-election against Katie McGinty (D) 49% to 47%. The 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in Pennsylvania were decided by less than 2 percentage points. Pennsylvania was one of two states in 2022, along with Wisconsin, where Republicans defended a seat in a state that Joe Biden (D) won in 2020.
Minor party, independent, and write-in candidates included Ronald Johnson (Constitution Party), Richard Weiss (G), Daniel Wassmer (Keystone Party of Pennsylvania), Erik Gerhardt (L), and Quincy Magee (Independent). Everett Stern (Independent) withdrew from the race on October 25 and endorsed Fetterman.
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) defeated Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (D) and write-in candidate Scott Aubart (American Independent Party) in the general election on November 8, 2022, to represent Wisconsin in the U.S. Senate.
Johnson was first elected in 2010, defeating then-incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold (D), 52% to 47%. Johnson won re-election in 2016 in a rematch with Feingold, 50% to 47%. In 2018, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) defeated Leah Vukmir (R), 55% to 45%. Before his election to the Senate, Johnson worked as the chief executive officer for a specialty plastics company and as an accountant at Jostens.[88] Johnson said that his campaign was "focused on growing our economy and creating good jobs and economic opportunity for all."[89]
Barnes served in the Wisconsin State Assembly from 2013 to 2017 and was elected lieutenant governor in 2018. Before his time in the legislature, Barnes worked for the city of Milwaukee and as a community organizer for the Milwaukee Inner-City Congregations Allied for Hope.[90][91] Barnes said he would "fight to create opportunity in every corner of Wisconsin, bring manufacturing back, create jobs by tackling climate change, and stand up for Wisconsin’s family farmers."[90]
Wisconsin was one of two states that held a U.S. Senate election in 2022 with a Republican incumbent that President Joe Biden carried in the 2020 presidential election. Wisconsin was also one of six states with one Democratic and one Republican U.S. senator as of the 2022 U.S. Senate elections.[92]
The 2020 and 2016 presidential elections in Wisconsin were both decided by less than one percentage point. In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden (D) won the state over then-incumbent President Donald Trump (R), 49.5% to 48.8%. In the 2016 election, Trump carried Wisconsin with 47.2% of the vote to Hillary Clinton's (D) 46.5%. At the start of the 2022 election cycle, Inside Elections rated this state Battleground Republican.[74]
The following table provides an overview of the incumbent and candidates in 2022 Senate races. Candidate lists may be incomplete until each state's filing deadline has passed.
2022 Senate elections | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
State | Incumbent | Candidate list | ||
Alabama | Richard Shelby |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Alaska | Lisa Murkowski |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Arizona | Mark Kelly |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Arkansas | John Boozman |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
California | Alex Padilla[93] |
DemocraticRepublican | ||
Colorado | Michael Bennet |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Connecticut | Richard Blumenthal |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Florida | Marco Rubio |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Georgia | Raphael Warnock |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Hawaii | Brian Schatz |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Idaho | Mike Crapo |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Illinois | Tammy Duckworth |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Indiana | Todd Young |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Iowa | Chuck Grassley |
DemocraticRepublican | ||
Kansas | Jerry Moran |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Kentucky | Rand Paul |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
Louisiana | John Neely Kennedy |
No candidates
| ||
Maryland | Chris Van Hollen |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
Missouri | Roy Blunt |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Nevada | Catherine Cortez Masto |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
New York | Charles Schumer |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
North Carolina | Richard Burr |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
North Dakota | John Hoeven |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
Ohio | Rob Portman |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
Oklahoma | James Lankford |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Oregon | Ron Wyden |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther | ||
South Carolina | Tim Scott |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
South Dakota | John Thune |
DemocraticRepublicanOther | ||
Utah | Mike Lee |
RepublicanIndependentOther | ||
Vermont | Patrick Leahy |
DemocraticRepublicanIndependent | ||
Washington | Patty Murray |
DemocraticRepublican | ||
Wisconsin | Ron Johnson |
DemocraticRepublicanOther |
Four of the 34 seats up for election in 2022 changed party control the last time they were up for election.
In 2020-2021, special elections took place in Georgia and Arizona. Democrats picked up both seats. The seats were up for election in 2022.
Senate seats that changed party hands, 2020-2021 special elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Pre-election incumbent | 2020-2021 winner | Margin of victory (% points) | |||
Arizona | Martha McSally | Mark Kelly | 2.4 | |||
Georgia | Kelly Loeffler | Raphael Warnock | 2.1 |
In 2016—the last time these 34 seats were up for regular election—two seats changed party hands. Democrats picked up both seats.
Senate seats that changed party hands, 2016 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Pre-election incumbent | 2016 winner | Margin of victory (% points) | |||
Illinois | Mark Kirk | Tammy Duckworth | 15.1 | |||
New Hampshire | Kelly Ayotte | Maggie Hassan | 0.1 |
The following table shows the 2020 presidential election margin of victory in percentage points for each state with a Senate election in 2022. Click [show] on the right to expand the table.
See also:
In 11 states with Senate seats up for election in 2022, the seat going into the election was held by a senator of a different party than the governor. Six seats held by Republican senators in states with Democratic governors were up. Five seats held by Democratic senators in states with Republican governors were up.
Senator's vs. Governor's party, 2022 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Pre-election Senate incumbent | Last election MoV[95] | Pre-election Governor | Last election MoV[95] | ||
Arizona | Mark Kelly | 2.4 | Doug Ducey | 14.2 | ||
Georgia | Raphael Warnock | 2.1 | Brian Kemp | 1.4 | ||
Kansas | Jerry Moran | 30.0 | Laura Kelly | 5.0 | ||
Kentucky | Rand Paul | 14.6 | Andy Beshear | 0.4 | ||
Louisiana | John Neely Kennedy | 21.4 | John Bel Edwards | 2.6 | ||
Maryland | Chris Van Hollen | 25.2 | Larry Hogan | 11.9 | ||
New Hampshire | Maggie Hassan | 0.1 | Chris Sununu | 31.7 | ||
North Carolina | Richard Burr | 5.7 | Roy Cooper | 4.5 | ||
Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey | 1.5 | Tom Wolf | 17.1 | ||
Vermont | Patrick Leahy | 28.3 | Phil Scott | 41.1 | ||
Wisconsin | Ron Johnson | 3.4 | Tony Evers | 1.1 |
Seven states had senators from different parties in the 117th Congress: Maine, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
Four of those seven states had Senate seats up for election in 2022. Vermont had one Democratic senator and one independent senator who caucused with Democrats, so three states with seats up for election had senators in different caucuses: Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
States with split Senate delegations | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | Pre-2022 election incumbent | Other incumbent | ||||
Ohio | Rob Portman | Sherrod Brown | ||||
Pennsylvania | Pat Toomey | Bob Casey Jr. | ||||
Wisconsin | Ron Johnson | Tammy Baldwin |
The 117th Congress had the fewest number of states with split Senate delegations in history, according to Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota: "Prior to the 117th, only one congress has convened with fewer than 10 split-delegation states [since the start of the direct election era] – the 84th Congress following the Election of 1954. That cycle produced nine states with one Democratic and Republican U.S. Senator."[96]
On February 13, 2021, former President Donald Trump (R) was acquitted of incitement of insurrection. Fifty-seven senators voted to convict and 43 voted to acquit. Conviction requires a two-thirds vote of senators present.[97]
Of the seven Republican senators who voted guilty, three held seats up for elections in 2022:
Richard Burr, N.C.
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska
Pat Toomey, Penn.
Burr and Toomey did not seek re-election.
In the 2020 Senate election cycle, Democrats flipped four seats and Republicans flipped one:
This section includes commentary on the 2022 U.S. Senate elections both before and after November 8.
“ |
These results are unusual for a midterm election: Coming into the 2022 election, the president’s party had lost Senate seats in 13 of the last 19 midterm elections, with an average loss of roughly five seats. But Democrats will suffer no net losses in the Senate, and after picking up an open seat in Pennsylvania previously held by a Republican, could achieve a net gain of one seat if Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock defeats Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia’s Dec. 6 runoff. Democrats managed this despite President Biden’s mediocre approval rating and the tendency for voters to sour on the president’s party in midterms. And while Democrats are headed for some losses in the House, they may lose an unusually small number of seats there, too.[98] |
” |
—Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight (November 12, 2022)[99] |
“ |
In an unusual midterm twist, those who "somewhat disapproved" of President Biden nonetheless mostly broke in favor his party. In six of seven key Senate races, the Democratic nominee won over those who somewhat disapproved of Biden. There was no more eye-popping spread than in New Hampshire, though. While Biden’s low numbers in the state (and even some softness with Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s approval) gave Republicans late hope they could stun with a victory, these “somewhat disapprovers” broke for Hassan over weak, MAGA candidate Don Bolduc by an astonishing 47 points. ... In the end, Biden’s approval in exit polling among voters who turned out to be higher than polling predicted, and every Democratic candidate ran ahead of him. But that edge was much more pronounced among incumbent Democrats. Hassan had the largest margin, outpacing Biden’s approval by 12 points, the only double digit lead. In Georgia, Warnock was next, running ahead by 8.4 points—but a warning sign for him in the runoff is that Biden’s approval was its lowest at 41 percent across the competitive states. He’ll need to come close to those numbers again, though it’s still a question of GOP turnout given Walker’s severe underperformance versus Kemp. In Arizona, Kelly ran ahead of Biden by 8 points. The smallest incumbent margin was Cortez Masto, though Biden’s 45% approval was the highest for any incumbent on the defense. While in the GOP-held open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, Beasley and Ryan, respectively, outran Biden, they couldn’t match the larger numbers the incumbents had that they needed, with 4 and 6 points being insufficient in the red-leaning states. Biden’s best numbers came in exit polling in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where the president's approval was at 46% in each. While the five points Fetterman ran ahead by was sufficient to lift him to a victory and to flip a seat, the 3.5 points that Barnes ran ahead of Biden – the lowest of any candidate in a competitive race – wasn’t enough.[98] |
” |
—Jessica Taylor and Matthew Klein, The Political Report (November 22, 2022)[100] |
“ |
Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party in power, and the party in power was coming up short. Just 17 percent of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country, 68 percent of voters said the condition of the nation’s economy was either “not so good” or “poor,” and a majority of Americans disapproved of President Joe Biden’s job performance. ... Voters were primed for change but chose the status quo instead. They didn’t punish Democrats for Biden’s job performance and were uncomfortable putting the GOP in control. Overall Democratic performance in the face of Biden’s standing and midterm history is remarkable. ... The final Inside Elections’ projection in the Senate was anything from a Democratic gain of one seat to a Republican gain of two seats. The final outcome — either no net change or a Democratic gain of a seat — will be within that range, pending the outcome of the Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia. And the final Senate result will be within a seat or two of our earliest Senate projection. The Senate map was relatively favorable for Democrats, considering Biden won six of the eight initial battleground states. But Democrats remained in a precarious position as the president’s approval ratings in these states remained underwater throughout most of the cycle. In the end, the 2020 Biden coalition not only held in enough key places, but some Democrats, including John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, overperformed Biden.[98] |
” |
—Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales, Inside Elections (November 28, 2022)[101] |
“ |
It really does come down to the swing voters. In almost every single Senate race with an incumbent, Independents backed the eventual winner—some by a significant margin. In the first round in Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock won independents by 11 points over Republican challenger Herschel Walker, who will need to narrow that margin to prevail in the runoff. The largest margin came in Pennsylvania, which (so far) has been the only Senate seat to change hands. Democrat John Fetterman won independents by a whopping 18-point margin over Republican Mehmet Oz, who was consistently unpopular with voters. The next biggest gap came in Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly defeated GOP challenger Blake Masters by 16 points with the crucial voting bloc. A three-point edge in Nevada helped Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, long thought to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent, defeat her rival Adam Laxalt. Independents narrowly broke for Democrats as well in GOP-held competitive open seats in North Carolina and Ohio, by six and three points, respectively. However, in those red-tinged states, it wasn’t enough to hoist Democrats to the upset. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson was the only Republican in a race we rated as competitive who won independent voters, besting Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes by a three-point margin.[98] |
” |
—Jessica Taylor and Matthew Klein, The Political Report (November 22, 2022)[102] |
“ |
Democrats would not have had such a good election night without the support of independent voters. ... Despite plenty of polling this year showing that independents were, like Republicans, primarily concerned with the state of the economy and inflation, they ended up making nuanced decisions in key statewide races — and that worked to benefit Democrats. ... State by state, those numbers come through in news networks’ exit polling (which provides an incomplete but early look at how an electorate behaved during an election) and other post-election surveys. In Arizona, for example, Sen. Mark Kelly’s win over Blake Masters in the state’s US Senate contest was boosted by the support of 55 percent of independents — who made up the largest share of the electorate (about 40 percent). The Associated Press’s midterm survey also found that independents broke in favor of Democrats by nearly 20 points. In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock won 53 percent of independents according to exit polls, though they made up a smaller share (24 percent) of that electorate. That contest is headed to a December runoff. Sen. Maggie Hassan, the Democrat who won reelection in New Hampshire, meanwhile, won a similar share of independents: 54 percent of the group that made up a plurality of voters. And John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, who won his race by a 5 percent vote margin, garnered the support of 58 percent of independents. ... In data provided to Vox from Navigator’s midterm voters survey, those numbers show that for independent men, inflation was a top concern for half of them, while abortion was the top concern for 23 percent. Among women, inflation was the top concern for 46 percent of respondents, while abortion was close behind at 34 percent. Though the numbers differ slightly between Navigator’s finding and exit polls, the same 17-percent gender gap shows up: Independent men supported Republicans slightly more than Democrats, but independent women backed Democrats by a much bigger margin. In Nevada’s Senate race, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was able to win the support of 48 percent of independents, compared to the 45 percent of independents who supported Republican Adam Laxalt, exit polls show. That included strong independent support in the swing Washoe County, which Cortez Masto won in this contest (she lost it during her first election in 2016). The AP VoteCast survey shows a nearly 10 percent gap in favor of Democrats.[98] |
” |
—Christian Paz, Vox (November 26, 2022)[103] |
“ |
This year, Republicans nominated a series of inexperienced Senate candidates, and such candidates tend to underperform statewide benchmarks. And although the incumbency advantage is smaller than it once was, some of the strongest-performing candidates, such as Rubio and New Hampshire Democrat Maggie Hassan, were incumbents. And candidate quality almost certainly matters less than it once did, given the high partisanship of the modern political era. We’ve even made some changes to our forecast model to reflect this. Still, another feature of modern American politics is exceptionally close races. So a candidate who underperforms by even 2 or 3 percentage points — let alone 5, 10 or more points — will often cost their party the election. Sometimes, quality has a big effect on quantity.[98] |
” |
—Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (November 9, 2022)[104] |
“ |
[...] Plenty of independent voters felt off put by Trump-aligned Republican candidates. Some disliked GOP candidates’ positions on abortion; others were repelled by other social and economic stances. ... Election denying candidates, and candidates aligned with Donald Trump, might have actually turned independents off from other Republican candidates on the ticket. In Pennsylvania, for example, Attorney General Josh Shapiro won the gubernatorial race by winning independents (by 29 points) and political moderates (by 40 points) by historic margins against the far-right, election-denying, Christian fundamentalist Republican Doug Mastriano. Mehmet Oz, the more moderate Republican candidate for US Senate, was dragged down both by Mastriano and his own poorly run campaign, losing independents by 20 points and moderates by 30 points. Those varying levels of support also suggest a degree of split-ticket voting, which meant that independent and Republican voters were even more selective in the Republican candidates they did end up supporting. In that way, poor Republican candidate quality hurt other Republicans, especially with independents and moderates, as my colleague Andrew Prokop has reported.[98] |
” |
—Christian Paz, Vox (November 26, 2022)[105] |
“ |
[Trump's] preferred candidates underperformed last week, helping Democrats hold the Senate and helping keep the race for House control close. (Republicans, who had been heavy favorites, are expected to prevail narrowly as mail ballots continue to be counted in California.) Overall, his preferred primary candidates underperformed other G.O.P. candidates by about five percentage points. ... A penalty of five points is a big number in today’s polarized era. Five of the last six presidential elections have been decided by a margin less than that. As findings like these are revealed, they may add to the consternation of some Republicans who in recent days have blamed Mr. Trump for the party’s poor performance. ... On paper, Republican Senate candidates ought to have been fairly competitive in Arizona and Pennsylvania. What did Blake Masters and Dr. Mehmet Oz lose by instead? Four to five points. In Georgia, the Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker underperformed Gov. Brian Kemp by eight points. Not all eight of those points can necessarily be attributed to the MAGA penalty. Mr. Kemp was an incumbent; Mr. Walker was a challenger. Still, it’s a weak performance by a candidate endorsed by Mr. Trump. With the results in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania all within the margin of one MAGA penalty, it’s entirely plausible that Mr. Trump’s candidates cost the Republicans control of the Senate.[98] |
” |
—Nate Cohn, The New York Times (November 16, 2022)[106] |
There were 4 U.S. Senate Democratic battleground primaries in 2022.
The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2022. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
There were 11 U.S. Senate Republican battleground primaries in 2022.
The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. Senate in 2022. Hover over or tap a state to view the incumbent's name.
Click here for primary election competitiveness statistics, including the number of open seats and contested incumbents in 2022.
Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2020 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more.
Click here to view the full report.
In a July 2018 report, Ballotpedia defined wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in the last 100 years resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Click here to view the full report.
Special elections to United States Senate are often required in the event of vacancies. As of April 2023, there has been one special election for U.S. Senate scheduled for the 117th Congress.
From 2013 to 2022, 67 special elections to the United States Congress were called during the 113th through 117th Congresses. During that time, special elections were called for 23 seats vacated by Democrats and 44 vacated by Republicans.
The table below details how many congressional seats changed parties as the result of a special election between 2013 and 2022. The numbers on the left side of the table reflect how many vacant seats were originally held by each party, while the numbers on the right side of the table show how many vacant seats each party won in special elections.
Congressional special election vacancies and results, 113th Congress to 117th Congress | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Congress | Total elections held | Vacancies before elections | Seats held after elections | Net change | ||
Democrats | Republicans | Democrats | Republicans | |||
117th Congress | 17 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | No change |
116th Congress | 10 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 6 | +1D, -1R |
115th Congress | 17 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +4 D, -4 R |
114th Congress | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | No change |
113th Congress | 16 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 9 | No change |
Averages | 13 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | N/A |
U.S. Senate special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 117th Congress | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | As of special election | After special election | ||||
Democrats | 4 | 7 | ||||
Republicans | 6 | 3 | ||||
Total | 10 | 10 |
U.S. House special election partisan change from special elections, 113th Congress to 117th Congress | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | As of special election | After special election | ||||
Democrats | 18 | 20 | ||||
Republicans | 36 | 34 | ||||
Total | 54 | 54 |
The table below presents the results of special elections to Congress from 1986 to 2012. Contact Ballotpedia at editor@ballotpedia.org for access to earlier data.
Results of special elections to Congress (1986-2012) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election cycle | Total special elections | U.S. House elections | Seats changing partisan control | U.S. Senate elections | Seats changing partisan control | |
2011-2012 | 11 | 11 | None | None | None | |
2009-2010 | 15 | 10 | 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) | 5 | 2 (all Republican gains) | |
2007-2008 | 14 | 12 | 3 (2 Republican gains; 1 Democratic gain) | 2 | None | |
2005-2006 | 12 | 12 | 3 (all Democratic gains) | None | None | |
2003-2004 | 6 | 6 | None | None | None | |
2001-2002 | 6 | 5 | 2 (all Democratic gains) | 1 | 1 (Republican gain) | |
1999-2000 | 9 | 8 | 1 (Republican gain) | 1 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
1997-1998 | 3 | 3 | None | None | None | |
1995-1996 | 11 | 9 | 1 (Republican gain) | 2 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
1993-1994 | 9 | 6 | 1 (Republican gain) | 3 | 3 (all Republican gains) | |
1991-1992 | 10 | 7 | 2 (all Republican gains) | 3 | 1 (Democratic gain) | |
1989-1990 | 10 | 8 | 1 (Democratic gain) | 2 | None | |
1987-1988 | 12 | 12 | 3 (2 Democratic gains; 1 Republican gain) | None | None | |
1985-1986 | 8 | 8 | 1 (Republican gain) | None | None | |
Total | 136 | 117 | 21 (11 Democratic gains; 10 Republican gains) | 19 | 9 (6 Republican gains; 3 Democratic gains) |
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle:
Monthly fundraising for the DSCC for the 2021-22 election cycle | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month (Dates covered) |
Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand (end of month) | Debts owed (end of month) | FEC document |
Year-End 2022 (November 29-December 31, 2022) |
$9,865,360.61 | $14,916,360.74 | $8,595,217.87 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
Post-General 2022 (October 20-November 28, 2022) |
$35,320,088.66 | $55,785,192.43 | $13,646,218.00 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
Pre-General 2022 (October 1-19, 2022) |
$37,191,286.44 | $39,542,256.21 | $34,111,521.77 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
October 2022 (September 1-30, 2022) |
$28,769,311.90 | $38,151,774.31 | $36,459,491.54 | $0.00 | Filing |
September 2022 (August 1-31, 2022) |
$12,578,749.01 | $20,881,341.49 | $45,841,953.95 | $0.00 | Filing |
August 2022 (July 1-31, 2022) |
$10,102,351.75 | $9,496,094.09 | $54,144,546.43 | $0.00 | Filing |
July 2022 (June 1-30, 2022) |
$12,566,902.59 | $11,167,743.78 | $53,538,288.77 | $0.00 | Filing |
June 2022 (May 1-31, 2022) |
$11,900,623.32 | $6,599,838.15 | $52,139,129.96 | $0.00 | Filing |
May 2022 (April 1-30, 2022) |
$8,269,244.48 | $5,995,292.65 | $45,983,531.45 | $0.00 | Filing |
April 2022 (March 1-31, 2022) |
$12,524,106.59 | $6,681,395.51 | $43,709,579.62 | $0.00 | Filing |
March 2022 (Feb. 1-28, 2022) |
$15,012,444.42 | $6,401,962.44 | $37,866,868.54 | $0.00 | Filing |
February 2022 (Jan. 1-31, 2022) |
$10,666,141.34 | $5,104,332.75 | $29,256,386.56 | $0.00 | Filing |
Year-End 2021 (Dec. 1-31, 2021) |
$10,128,189.49 | $4,646,697.73 | $23,694,577.97 | $0.00 | Filing |
December 2021 (Nov. 1-30, 2021) |
$6,846,254.23 | $4,523,655.04 | $18,213,086.21 | $0.00 | Filing |
November 2021 (Oct. 1-31, 2021) |
$6,981,887.03 | $4,481,716.90 | $15,890,487.02 | $0.00 | Filing |
October 2021 (Sept. 1-30, 2021) |
$8,037,630.15 | $5,145,998.03 | $13,390,316.89 | $0.00 | Filing |
September 2021 (Aug. 1-31, 2021) |
$6,153,202.01 | $5,922,536.51 | $10,498,684.77 | $0.00 | Filing |
August 2021 (July 1-31, 2021) |
$6,473,053.97 | $7,770,185.85 | $10,268,019.27 | $2,000,000.00 | Filing |
July 2021 (June 1-30, 2021) |
$10,123,541.88 | $11,190,766.21 | $11,565,151.15 | $5,000,000.00 | Filing |
June 2021 (May 1-31, 2021) |
$7,168,163.64 | $7,258,068.33 | $12,632,375.48 | $8,000,000.00 | Filing |
May 2021 (April 1-30, 2021) |
$6,642,177.58 | $7,100,453.56 | $12,722,280.17 | $11,000,000.00 | Filing |
April 2021 (March 1-31, 2021) |
$9,292,748.21 | $6,315,393.50 | $13,180,556.15 | $15,000,000.00 | Filing |
March 2021 (Feb. 1-28, 2021) |
$7,265,921.55 | $6,108,300.17 | $10,203,201.44 | $18,000,000.00 | Filing |
February 2021 (Jan. 1-31, 2021) |
$6,094,399.76 | $6,833,277.29 | $9,045,580.06 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle:
Monthly fundraising for the NRSC for the 2021-22 election cycle | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Month (Dates covered) |
Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand (end of month) | Debts owed (end of month) | FEC document |
Year-End 2022 (November 29-December 31, 2022) |
$3,372,124.04 | $5,784,107.36 | $8,177,735.85 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
Post-General 2022 (October 20-November 28, 2022) |
$12,054,403.63 | $15,155,797.37 | $10,589,719.17 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
Pre-General 2022 (October 1-19, 2022) |
$15,468,969.33 | $15,452,555.70 | $13,691,112.91 | $20,000,000.00 | Filing |
October 2022 (September 1-30, 2022) |
$25,016,489.17 | $27,341,833.7 | $13,674,699.28 | $0.00 | Filing |
September 2022 (August 1-31, 2022) |
$12,613,097.87 | $19,778,682.06 | $16,000,043.81 | $0.00 | Filing |
August 2022 (July 1-31, 2022) |
$8,050,263.06 | $13,337,920.86 | $23,165,628.00 | $0.00 | Filing |
July 2022 (June 1-30, 2022) |
$9,456,309.22 | $17,006,565.16 | $28,453,285.80 | $0.00 | Filing |
June 2022 (May 1-31, 2022) |
$8,018,426.36 | $17,132,632.32 | $36,003,541.74 | $0.00 | Filing |
May 2022 (April 1-30, 2022) |
$8,146,970.56 | $7,164,015.84 | $45,117,747.70 | $0.00 | Filing |
April 2022 (March 1-31, 2022) |
$13,280,793.52 | $10,790,212.26 | $44,134,792.98 | $0.00 | Filing |
March 2022 (Feb. 1-28, 2022) |
$11,707,886.37 | $9,172,518.56 | $41,644,211.72 | $0.00 | Filing |
February 2022 (Jan. 1-31, 2022) |
$18,019,008.84 | $11,692,567.55 | $39,108,843.91 | $0.00 | Filing |
Year-End 2021 (Dec. 1-31, 2021) |
$11,236,079.02 | $8,541,350.07 | $32,782,402.62 | $0.00 | Filing |
December 2021 (Nov. 1-30, 2021) |
$8,389,156.42 | $7,985,767.53 | $30,087,673.67 | $0.00 | Filing |
November 2021 (Oct. 1-31, 2021) |
$9,001,481.07 | $7,089,100.08 | $29,684,284.78 | $0.00 | Filing |
October 2021 (Sept. 1-30, 2021) |
$9,531,613.39 | $6,998,909.18 | $27,771,903.79 | $0.00 | Filing |
September 2021 (Aug. 1-31, 2021) |
$8,004,299.83 | $6,902,129.94 | $25,239,199.58 | $0.00 | Filing |
August 2021 (July 1-31, 2021) |
$7,467,414.93 | $8,404,026.26 | $24,137,029.69 | $0.00 | Filing |
July 2021 (June 1-30, 2021) |
$10,523,491.53 | $6,153,766.10 | $25,073,641.02 | $0.00 | Filing |
June 2021 (May 1-31, 2021) |
$10,375,900.98 | $3,921,710.51 | $20,703,915.59 | $0.00 | Filing |
May 2021 (April 1-30, 2021) |
$7,206,465.03 | $5,290,732.63 | $14,249,725.12 | $0.00 | Filing |
April 2021 (March 1-31, 2021) |
$8,336,221.77 | $11,153,372.57 | $12,333,992.72 | $0.00 | Filing |
March 2021 (Feb. 1-28, 2021) |
$6,427,393.63 | $8,492,567.28 | $15,151,143.52 | $5,400,000.00 | Filing |
February 2021 (Jan. 1-31, 2021) |
$8,340,640.22 | $5,536,186.82 | $17,216,317.17 | $9,000,000.00 | Filing |
The congressional approval rating indicates public satisfaction in the job performance of the members of the United States Congress. It is the percentage of people polled who responded favorably toward the work of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
The following chart includes the congressional approval rating over time, in addition to the presidential approval rating and direction of country rating.
To learn more about Ballotpeddia's Polling Indexes, click here.
The table below lists important dates throughout the 2022 congressional election cycle, including filing deadlines and primary dates.
Primary dates and filing deadlines, 2022 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
State | Primary date | Primary runoff date | Filing deadline for primary candidates | Source |
Alabama | 5/24/2022 | 6/21/2022 | 1/28/2022 2/11/2022 (congressional) |
Source |
Alaska | 8/16/2022 | N/A | 6/1/2022 | Source |
Arizona | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 4/4/2022 | Source |
Arkansas | 5/24/2022 | 6/21/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Source |
California | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/11/2022 | Source |
Colorado | 6/28/2022 | N/A | 3/15/2022 | Source |
Connecticut | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 6/7/2022 | Source |
Delaware | 9/13/2022 | N/A | 7/12/2022 | Source |
Florida | 8/23/2022 | N/A | 6/17/2022 | Source |
Georgia | 5/24/2022 | 6/21/2022 | 3/11/2022 | Source |
Hawaii | 8/13/2022 | N/A | 6/7/2022 | Source |
Idaho | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 3/11/2022 | Source |
Illinois | 6/28/2022 | N/A | 3/14/2022 | Source |
Indiana | 5/3/2022 | N/A | 2/4/2022 | Source |
Iowa | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/18/2022 | Source |
Kansas | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 6/1/2022 | Source |
Kentucky | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 1/25/2022 | Source |
Louisiana | 11/8/2022 | N/A | 7/22/2022[128] | Source |
Maine | 6/14/2022 | N/A | 3/15/2022 | Source |
Maryland | 7/19/2022 | N/A | 4/15/2022 | Source |
Massachusetts | 9/6/2022 | N/A | 5/31/2022 6/7/2022 (Congress and statewide office) |
Source |
Michigan | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 4/19/2022 | Source |
Minnesota | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 5/31/2022 | Source |
Mississippi | 6/7/2022 | 6/28/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Source |
Missouri | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 3/29/2022 | Source |
Montana | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/14/2022 | Source |
Nebraska | 5/10/2022 | N/A | 2/15/2022 | Source |
Nevada | 6/14/2022 | N/A | 3/18/2022 | Source |
New Hampshire | 9/13/2022 | N/A | 6/10/2022 | Source |
New Jersey | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 4/4/2022 | Source |
New Mexico | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/24/2022 | Source |
New York | 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only) | N/A | 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only) | Source |
North Carolina | 5/17/2022 | 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved) | 3/4/2022 | Source |
North Dakota | 6/14/2022 | N/A | 4/11/2022 | Source |
Ohio | 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices) 8/2/2022 (state legislative offices) |
N/A | 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022) | Source |
Oklahoma | 6/28/2022 | 8/23/2022 | 4/15/2022 | Source |
Oregon | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 3/8/2022 | Source |
Pennsylvania | 5/17/2022 | N/A | 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only) 3/28/2022 (state legislative candidates) |
Source Source |
Rhode Island | 9/13/2022 | N/A | 7/15/2022 | Source |
South Carolina | 6/14/2022 | 6/28/2022 | 3/30/2022 | Source |
South Dakota | 6/7/2022 | N/A | 3/29/2022 | Source |
Tennessee | 8/4/2022 | N/A | 4/7/2022 | Source |
Texas | 3/1/2022 | 5/24/2022 | 12/13/2021 | Source |
Utah | 6/28/2022 | N/A | 3/4/2022 | Source |
Vermont | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 5/26/2022 | Source |
Virginia[129] | 6/21/2022 | N/A | 4/7/2022 | Source |
Washington | 8/2/2022 | N/A | 5/20/2022 | Source |
West Virginia | 5/10/2022 | N/A | 1/29/2022 | Source |
Wisconsin | 8/9/2022 | N/A | 6/1/2022 | Source |
Wyoming | 8/16/2022 | N/A | 5/27/2022 |
The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first.
Record of date and deadline changes, 2022 | |||
---|---|---|---|
State | Date of change | Description of change | Source |
Louisiana | 6/6/2022 | A federal district court, in striking down the state's congressional redistricting plan, postponed the deadline for candidates qualifying by petition in lieu of paying the filing fee from June 22, 2022, to July 8, 2022. The court's order did not affect the July 22, 2022, deadline for candidates qualifying by paying the filing fee. | Source |
Ohio | 5/28/2022 | Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). | Source |
New York | 5/10/2022 | A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. | Source; Source |
Pennsylvania | 3/16/2022 | The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. | Source |
Maryland | 3/15/2022 | The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. | Source |
Massachusetts | 2/14/2022 | Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. | Source |
Ohio | 5/28/2022 | Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. | Source |
Utah | 2/14/2022 | Governor Spencer Cox (R) signed SB170 into law, moving the candidate filing deadline to March 4, 2022. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. | Source |
Maryland | 2/11/2022 | The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. | Source |
Pennsylvania | 2/9/2022 | The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. The court later fixed March 15, 2022, as the filing deadline for statewide offices and the U.S. Congress. | Source |
Alabama | 1/24/2022 | The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. | Source |
Kentucky | 1/6/2022 | Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. | Source |
North Carolina | 12/8/2021 | The Supreme Court of North Carolina ordered the postponement of the statewide primary, originally scheduled for March 8, 2022, to May 17, 2022. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. | Source |
North Carolina | 2/9/2022 | The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. | Source |
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