Utah State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Utah Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | June 28, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
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A total of 15 seats out of the 29 seats in the Utah State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
Utah state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the Senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction[edit]
Elections for the Utah State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 28, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 17, 2016.
Majority control[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Utah State Senate:
| Utah State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 5 | 5 | |
| Republican Party | 23 | 24 | |
| Libertarian Party | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 29 | 29 | |
Retired incumbents[edit]
Four incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen |  Libertarian |
Senate District 13 |
| Alvin B. Jackson |  Republican |
Senate District 14 |
| Scott Jenkins | Republican |
Senate District 20 |
| Stephen Urquhart | Republican |
Senate District 29 |
Note: Alvin B. Jackson (R-14) resigned from the state Senate on July 1, 2016. Daniel Hemmert (R) was appointed to the seat on August 7, 2016, to fill Jackson's remaining term.
Note: Stephen Urquhart (R-29) resigned from the state Senate on September 9, 2016. Don Ipson (R) was appointed to the seat on September 21, 2016, to fill Urquhart's remaining term.
2016 election competitiveness[edit]
Utah sees a decline in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Utah performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Utah State Senate, there were 5 Democratic incumbents and 24 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were five incumbents who faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 12 Democratic incumbents and 63 Republican incumbents. Three state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 16 incumbents who faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Utah can be found below.
Races we watched[edit]
Ballotpedia identified five notable Utah state primary races in 2016, two of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Utah races »
Primary contests[edit]
- The Republican incumbent faced a primary challenger.
- ☑ Lincoln Fillmore (Inc.) ☐ Rich Cunningham
- The Republican incumbent faced a primary challenger.
- ☑ Curtis Bramble (Inc.) ☐ Christopher Herrod
List of candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
| 2016 Utah Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Luz Escamilla: 11,957 (I)  |
Fred Johnson: 8,372 | |
| 6 | Celina Milner: 12,682 | Wayne Harper: 19,325 (I) |
Jim Dexter: 2,266 (L) |
| 7 | Andrew Apsley: 5,589 | Deidre Henderson: 28,592 (I) |
|
| 8 | Ash Anderson: 17,577 | Brian Shiozawa: 23,533 (I) |
|
| 10 | Dan Paget: 13,442 | Lincoln Fillmore: 31,762 (I) |
|
| 13 | No candidate | Jake Anderegg |
|
| 14 | No candidate | Daniel Hemmert: 34,681 (I) |
Joe Buchman: 3,776 (L) Curt Crosby: 1,732 (Independent American) |
| 16 | No candidate | Curtis Bramble: 21,489 (I) |
Jason Christensen: 5,092 (Independent American) |
| 19 | Deana Froerer: 16,381 | Allen Christensen: 20,994 (I) |
|
| 20 | Alan Yorgason: 10,757 | Gregg Buxton: 24,296 |
|
| 23 | Steve Hartwick: 13,953 | Todd Weiler: 29,883 (I) |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Ralph Okerlund (I) |
|
| 25 | No candidate | Lyle Hillyard (I) |
|
| 27 | Heidi Redd: 11,626 | David Hinkins: 26,199 (I) |
|
| 29 | Dorothy Engelman: 9,114 | Don Ipson: 32,177 (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Write-in candidates[edit]
- David Lifferth (Unaffiliated), District 13
- Michael Seguin (Unaffiliated), District 19
Primary election[edit]
| 2016 Utah Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Luz Escamilla (I) |
Fred Johnson |
|
| 6 | Celina Milner |
Wayne Harper (I) |
Jim Dexter (L)
|
| 7 | Andrew Apsley |
Deidre Henderson (I) |
|
| 8 | Ash Anderson |
Brian Shiozawa (I) |
|
| 10 | Dan Paget |
Lincoln Fillmore: 5,465 (I) Rich Cunningham: 4,498 |
|
| 13 | No candidate | Jake Anderegg |
|
| 14 | No candidate | Morgan Philpot: 3,801 Daniel Hemmert: 5,861 |
Joe Buchman (L) Curt Crosby (Independent American)
|
| 16 | No candidate | Christopher Herrod: 2,706 Curtis Bramble: 3,177 (I) |
Jason Christensen (Independent American)
|
| 19 | Deana Froerer |
Allen Christensen (I) |
|
| 20 | Alan Yorgason |
Gregg Buxton |
|
| 23 | Steve Hartwick |
Todd Weiler (I) |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Ralph Okerlund (I) |
|
| 25 | No candidate | Lyle Hillyard (I) |
|
| 27 | Heidi Redd |
David Hinkins (I) |
|
| 29 | Dorothy Engelman |
Don Ipson |
|
Notes:
| |||
Candidates out in convention[edit]
- Jeff Haaga (R), District 6
- Nathan Hepler (R), District 7
- Aleta Andersen Taylor (R), District 10
- Jimmy Eaton (R), District 13
- Holly Richardson (R), District 14
- Timothy Spencer (R), District 16
- Heather Gardner (R), District 23
- Richard Jenkins (R), District 29
Margins of victory[edit]
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Utah State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 15 races in the Utah State Senate in 2016, 12 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 40 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[1]
| Republican candidates in the Utah State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 14 races. In the 11 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 42 percent. Democrats won one race in 2016. In the one race where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 17.6 percent. |
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Utah State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 13 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 11 winning Utah State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 40.1 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Utah State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 12 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 10 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 42.3 percent. One Democratic incumbent won re-election. In the one race where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 17.6 percent. |
Utah State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[2] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[2] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 1 17.6 percent 1 17.6 percent 0 0 N/A Republican 14 42.0 percent 12 42.3 percent 2 3 21.4 percent Total 15 40.0 percent 13 40.1 percent 2 3 20.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Utah State Senate districts in 2016.
| Utah State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 17.6 percent |
| District 6 | R | 19.4 percent |
| District 7 | R | 67.3 percent |
| District 8 | R | 14.5 percent |
| District 10 | R | 40.5 percent |
| District 13 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 76.9 percent |
| District 16 | R | 61.7 percent |
| District 19 | R | 12.3 percent |
| District 20 | R | 38.6 percent |
| District 23 | R | 36.3 percent |
| District 24 | R | Unopposed |
| District 25 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | R | 38.5 percent |
| District 29 | R | 55.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines[edit]
- See also: Utah elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Utah in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Declaration of intent to gather signatures period opens | |
| March 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Declaration of candidacy period opens | |
| March 17, 2016 | Ballot access | Declaration of candidacy and intent to gather signature period closes | |
| June 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | Candidate financial disclosure report due | |
| June 28, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 9, 2016 | Ballot access | Final day for a write-in candidate to declare candidacy | |
| September 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | Candidate financial disclosure report due | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Candidate financial disclosure report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 10, 2017 | Campaign finance | Candidate financial disclosure report due | |
| Source: Utah Lieutenant Governor, "2016 Election Information," accessed January 11, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness[edit]
Candidates unopposed by a major party[edit]
In 5 (33.3%) of the 15 seats up for election, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of five Republicans were guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 10 (66.6%) of the 15 seats up for election.
Primary challenges[edit]
A total of five incumbents faced primary competition on June 28. Two incumbents did not seek re-election and another 8 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents[edit]
Two incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 13 (86.6%) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, one Republican and one Libertarian, can be found above. Two other incumbents—District 14 and District 29—did not seek re-election, but resigned before the end of their term. Both seats were filled by governor appointments.
Results from 2014[edit]
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Utah's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Utah Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 13.5% | 24.7% | 79.8% | 39.3 | 11 |
Historical context[edit]
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions[edit]
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Utah in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[3]
| Utah State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 39 | $2,458,304 |
| 2012 | 44 | $2,203,132 |
| 2010 | 39 | $1,760,997 |
| 2008 | 71 | $2,343,603 |
| 2006 | 60 | $1,968,852 |
State comparison[edit]
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Utah, at $63,033 per candidate, is ranked 30 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[3][4]
Qualifications[edit]
To be eligible to serve in the Utah State Senate, a candidate must be:[5]
- A U.S. citizen at the time of filing
- 25 years old at the filing deadline time
- A three-year resident of Utah at the filing deadline time
- A resident for 6 months of the senate district from which elected at the filing deadline time
- No person holding any public office of profit or trust under authority of the United States, or of this State, can be a member of the state senate, provided, that appointments in the State Militia, and the offices of notary public, justice of the peace, United States commissioner, and postmaster of the fourth class, shall not, within the meaning of this section, be considered offices of profit or trust.
- A qualified voter. A qualified voter is someone who is:
- * A U.S. citizen
- * A resident of Utah for at least 30 days prior to the next election
- * At least 18 years old by the next election
- * His or her principal place of residence is in a specific voting precinct in Utah.
See also[edit]
External links[edit]
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Utah," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Qualifications for running for Utah Senate
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