Religious immigrants to Europe resistant to secularization

In Europe, there has been less attention paid to fertility differences between denominations. However, several studies have discovered that immigrants to Europe tend to be more religious than the host population and — especially if Muslim—tend to retain their religiosity (Van Tubergen 2006). Though some indicators point to modest religious decline toward the host society mean, other trends suggest that immigrants become more, rather than less, religious the longer they reside in the host society (Van Tubergen 2007). All of which indicates that religious decline may fail at the aggregate level even if it is occurring at the individual level (Kaufmann 2006, 2010). This article thereby investigates the hypothesis that a combination of higher religious fertility, immigration, and slowing rates of religious apostasy will eventually produce a reversal in the decline of the religious population of Western Europe.^[4]

Europe’s experience with Muslim immigration is, of course, vastly different than America’s, where assimilation of immigrant populations into mainstream society has been more successful. There are a number of reasons for this, all of which should give Americans confidence and provide an example for Europe to emulate as it grapples with the migrant crisis.

Last week, the Pew Research Center released its latest survey of American Muslims (previous surveys were conducted in 2007 and 2011), providing the public with an updated peek into the views and religious practices of Muslims in America. The 3.35 million adult Muslims living in America today make up about one percent of the population. Of these adult Muslims, about 82 percent are U.S. citizens...

American Muslims, according to the survey, are fairly observant, including their dress, daily prayers and mosque attendance. A slim majority appears not to adhere to fundamentalist views. Of those surveyed, 52 percent said that traditional understandings of Islam need a new interpretation and a majority (64 percent) said that there is more than one true way to interpret Islam. While a significant percentage obviously have a strict interpretation of Islam, ...they do not make up the majority.

An important question that the Pew Research Center has asked in its three surveys of American Muslims concerns views about homosexuality. This is used as a metric for assimilation because the center has found that in most Muslim-majority countries, views toward homosexuality are extremely negative. Any evidence that this has changed among Muslim immigrants in the United States would be a sign of assimilation to liberal-social norms. The center found that “today, about half of U.S. Muslims say homosexuality should be accepted by society (52%), while 33% say homosexuality should be discouraged. By comparison, in 2011, 39% of Muslims said homosexuality should be accepted; in 2007, just 27% held this view.”

Another important metric for measuring assimilation is the extent to which immigrant populations mix with members outside of their community. The survey found that Muslims are less likely to say all or most of their friends are Muslim than they were in either 2011 or 2007. Today, only 36 percent made that assertion compared with 49 percent in 2011. Also, 55 percent said that Americans are friendly toward them, which is up from 48 percent in 2011, although 75 percent said there is a lot of discrimination toward Muslims...

These results stand in stark contrast to the attitudes and behavior of Muslims in Europe, where there is less pride taken in belonging to a given country and a higher degree of isolation and ostracization. A 2016 survey found that 44 percent of Muslims in Europe hold fundamentalist beliefs, described as “a belief in returning to the roots of Islam, coupled with an adherence to a strict interpretation of the Quran.” The survey also found that 57 percent would not be friends with homosexuals and 54 percent think of the West as an enemy of Islam. In France, 72 percent of Muslims reportedly would prefer Sharia law to be the primary or sole law of the land. In the UK, 69 percent feel the same way, according to the survey.

Why such a contrast? As the survey data shows, Europe has struggled to assimilate not only those Muslims who have lived there for decades but also the more recent surge of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa.^[7]

Finally, a “high” migration scenario projects the record flow of refugees into Europe between 2014 and 2016 to continue indefinitely into the future with the same religious composition (i.e., mostly made up of Muslims) in addition to the typical annual flow of regular migrants. In this scenario, Muslims could make up 14% of Europe’s population by 2050 – nearly triple the current share, but still considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe.^[11]

That said, Muslim membership retention and in-group marriage is exceptionally high (over 90 per cent) and they are a much younger population than the host society. So they are on course for steady growth. My colleagues and I expect their fertility to fall to host levels by 2030, but they will still make up 5-15 per cent of most West European countries by 2050 and 10-25 per cent by 2100. This is a major change from the 2-6 per cent levels of today^[14]

And it may be just the beginning. Can the EU withstand such a religio-demographic earthquake? Its failure to enforce any concept of borders isn't a good sign....

Assimilation offers little hope. Parts of France — especially its notorious banlieues outside major cities like Paris — are virtual no-go zones. London's are little better. Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Scandinavia all have large, unassimilated Muslim populations.

Those populations are growing. Europe isn't. As far back as 2011, the Pew Forum noted that Europe's Muslim population was expected to almost double from 30 million in 1990 to 57 million in 2030.

That's surely now an underestimate. Add to this the inevitability of jihadists slipping across porous EU borders, and Europe is in deep trouble.

Anger is welling up, and nationalist parties are spreading across the Continent. As 20th century history showed, Europe doesn't react well to social upheaval.

Can Europe survive the coming storm? Doubtful.^[15]

"Most devout Muslims are creationists so when you go to schools, there are a large number of children of Islamic parents who trot out what they have been taught," Prof Dawkins said in a Sunday newspaper interview.

"Teachers are bending over backwards to respect home prejudices that children have been brought up with. The Government could do more, but it doesn't want to because it is fanatical about multiculturalism and the need to respect the different traditions from which these children come."^[28]

This task will arguably become far more difficult as the supply of nominal Christians dries up while more secularisation-resistant Muslims and committed rump Christians comprise an increasing share of the population.^[30]

Moving to the wider spectrum of European Christianity, we find that fertility is indeed much higher among European women who are religious...

Today, most of those who remain religious in Europe wear their beliefs lightly, but conservative Christianity is hardly a spent force. Data on conservative Christians is difficult to come by since many new churches keep few official records. Reports from the World Christian Database, which meticulously tracks reports from church bodies, indicates that 4.1 percent of Europeans (including Russians) were evangelical Christians in 2005. This figure rises to 4.9 percent in northern, western and southern Europe. Most religious conservatives are charismatics, working within mainstream denominations like Catholicism or Lutheranism to ‘renew’ the faith along more conservative lines. There is also an important minority of Pentecostals, who account for .5% of Europe’s population. Together, charismatics and Pentecostals account for close to 5 % of Europe’s population. The proportion of conservative Christians has been rising, however: some estimate that the trajectory of conservative Christian growth has outpaced that of Islam in Europe. (Jenkins 2007: 75).

In many European countries, the proportion of conservative Christians is close to the number who are recorded as attending church weekly. This would suggest an increasingly devout Christian remnant is emerging in western Europe which is more resistant to secularization. This shows up in France, Britain and Scandinavia (less Finland), the most secular countries where we have 1981, 1990 and 2000 EVS and 2004 ESS data on religiosity...

Currently there are more evangelical Christians than Muslims in Europe. (Jenkins 2007: 75) In Eastern Europe, as outside the western world, Pentecostalism is a sociological and not a demographic phenomenon. In Western Europe, by contrast, demography is central to evangelicalism’s growth, especially in urban areas. Alas, immigration brings two foreign imports, Islam and Christianity, to secular Europe.^[31]

Daniel Liechti, vice-president of the French National Evangelical Council, found that since 1970, a new evangelical church has opened in France every 10 days. The number of churches increased from 769 to 2,068 last year.^[34]

Evangelical Christianity is flourishing in Europe. France has witnessed an eight-fold increase in Evangelical Christians during the past half century, from roughly 50,000 to 400,000....

In a country where people are a bit disappointed by traditional religion, Sinclair says, they are impressed by the way these Evangelical churches are alive and welcoming.

The churches underscore the fact that while secularization continues to progress in Europe, there has been what Sinclair calls a spiritual turning in recent years...

Majagira Bulangalire, the president of Community of Churches of African Expression of France, an umbrella group of immigrant Evangelical churches.

Bulangalire admits there have been a few problems with local authorities. But he says once they see the churches can serve their communities in a positive fashion they are very open. He says the French Interior Ministry has also been welcoming. Some Roman Catholic parishes have adopted Evangelical-style bible study classes. Jean-Arnold de Clermont, head of the Protestant Federation of France, says traditional Protestant churches are realizing they can learn from their Evangelical counterparts. ^[35]

All of these Evangelical churches were planted in deprived areas, not suburbs; most of their members were local; one parish was cross-tradition; every parish was reaching people who do not attend church; and all of them were involved in social-action projects that served their local communities.^[39]

Some 4.5million of the UK's foreign-born population claim to have a religious affiliation. Of these, around a quarter are Muslim while more than half are Christian – with Polish Catholics and African Pentecostals among the fastest-growing groups.

While traditional churchgoing is on the decline in the UK over the past decade, the latest immigrants mean Christianity is becoming more charismatic and fundamentalist.

'Perhaps the most significant change has been the growth of Pentecostal and charismatic Christianity within migrant populations, particularly those from Africa and Latin America,' the report found.

'In Lewisham, there are 65 Pentecostal churches serving the Nigerian community, and others serving the Congolese, Ghanaian and Ivorian communities.'

Professor Mike Kenny of IPPR said: 'The research shows that recent waves of inward migration have given a boost to some of the UK's established faith communities at a time when Britain's society and culture are generally more secular, and smaller numbers of the indigenous population are regularly attending churches.

'Recent migration trends are altering the faith map of the UK. Their biggest impact is being felt in some of our largest cities: London above all, where a rich mosaic of different faith communities has come into being.'

Evangelical Christianity might be heavily African-influenced but it’s also spreading among the natives as well.^[42]