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List of predicted asteroid impacts on Earth

Topic: Astronomy

 From HandWiki - Reading time: 7 min

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This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance, which are cataloged by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).[1]

As of December 2024, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 10 m (33 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.

Asteroid
designation		 Date & time (UTC)
of discovery
Discoverer		 Estimated size Abs.
mag.		 Date & time (UTC)
of impact
Warning time		 Location of impact Airburst altitude
Energy		 Method of
impact detection		 Reference
2008 TC3 2008-10-06 06:39
Mt. Lemmon Survey		 3.8–4.4 m (12–14 ft) 30.72 2008-10-07 02:45
20:05		 20.9 N, 31.8 E
Nubian Desert in Sudan		 50.0 km (31.1 mi)
1 kt		 visual, weather satellite,
meteorite recovery		 JPL · MPC · [2]
2014 AA 2014-01-01 06:18
Mt. Lemmon Survey		 2–4 m (6.6–13.1 ft) 30.95 2014-01-02 03:04
20:46		 13.1 N, 44.2 W
Central Atlantic Ocean		 40.0 km (24.9 mi)
?		 infrasound JPL · MPC · [3]
2018 LA 2018-06-02 08:14
Mt. Lemmon Survey		 2–5 m (6.6–16.4 ft) 30.55 2018-06-02 16:44
08:29		 21.3 S, 23.3 E
Botswana/South Africa border		 27.8 km (17.3 mi)
0.3–0.5 kt		 visual, infrasound,
meteorite recovery		 JPL · MPC · [4][5][6]
2019 MO 2019-06-22 09:49
ATLAS-MLO		 4–9 m (13–30 ft) 29.12 2019-06-22 21:25
11:36		 14.9 N, 66.2 W
Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico		 25.0 km (15.5 mi)
6 kt		 visual, infrasound,
weather satellite & radar		 JPL · MPC · [7]
2022 EB5 2022-03-11 19:24
GINOP-KHK		 1.4–3.2 m (4.6–10.5 ft) 31.33 2022-03-11 21:22
01:58		 70.0 N, 9.1 W
Jan Mayen, northern Atlantic Ocean		 33.3 km (20.7 mi)
4 kt		 visual, infrasound JPL · MPC · [8][9]
2022 WJ1 2022-11-19 04:53
Mt. Lemmon Survey		 0.4–0.6 m (1.3–2.0 ft) 33.58 2022-11-19 08:26
03:33		 43.0 N, 81.7 W
Ontario, Canada		 95.5 km (59.3 mi)
?		 visual, radar JPL · MPC · [10][11]
2023 CX1 2023-02-12 20:18
GINOP-KHK		 0.8–1.7 m (2.6–5.6 ft) 32.72 2023-02-13 02:59
06:41		 49.8 N, 0.4 E
Northwestern France		 50.0 km (31.1 mi)
?		 visual, meteorite recovery JPL · MPC · [12][13]
2024 BX1 2024-01-20 21:48
GINOP-KHK		 <0.5 m (1.6 ft) 32.71 2024-01-21 00:32
02:44		 52.6 N, 12.6 E
Berlin, Germany		 21.3 km (13.2 mi)
?		 visual, meteorite recovery JPL · MPC · [14][15]
2024 RW1 2024-09-04 05:43
Mt. Lemmon Survey		 1–2.5 m (3.3–8.2 ft) 32.20 2024-09-04 16:39
10:55		 18.0 N, 122.9 E
Pacific Ocean near Luzon, Philippines		 25.0 km (15.5 mi)
0.2 kt		 visual JPL · MPC · [16][17]
2024 UQ 2024-10-22 09:08
ATLAS-HKO		 0.8–1.6 m (2.6–5.2 ft) 32.66 2024-10-22 10:54
01:46		 30.0 N, 136.0 W
Eastern Pacific		 38.2 km (23.7 mi)
0.15 kt		 weather satellite JPL · MPC · [18][19]
2024 XA1 2024-12-03 05:55
Kitt Peak-Bok		 0.7–1.5 m (2.3–4.9 ft) 32.95 2024-12-03 16:14
10:19		 60.9 N, 119.5 E
Eastern Siberia		 50.0 km (31.1 mi)
?		 visual JPL · MPC · [20][21]

References

  1. ↑ "Pre-Impact Detections". NASA/JPL CNEOS. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pi. 
  2. ↑ Shaddad, Muawia H. (October 2010). "The recovery of asteroid 2008 TC3". Meteoritics & Planetary Science 45 (10–11): 1557–1589. doi:10.1111/j.1945-5100.2010.01116.x. Bibcode: 2010M&PS...45.1557S. http://asima.seti.org/2008TC3/papers/maps1116-1296.pdf. Retrieved 2024-01-27. 
  3. ↑ Beatty, Kelly (January 2, 2014). "Small asteroid 2014 AA hits Earth". Sky & Telescope. http://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/small-asteroid-2014-aa-hitsearth/. 
  4. ↑ Malik, Tariq (June 4, 2018). "A Tiny Asteroid Just Hit Earth, Sparking a Fireball Over South Africa (Video)". Space.com. https://www.space.com/40783-tiny-asteroid-hits-earth-2018-la-video.html. 
  5. ↑ Gulon, Tioga (July 3, 2018). "Asteroid 2018 LA hit the atmosphere over Botswana on June 2". News. International Meteor Organization. https://www.imo.net/asteroid-2018-la-hit-the-atmosphere-over-botswana-on-june-2/. 
  6. ↑ King, Bob (July 6, 2018). "First Fragment Of Shattered Asteroid Recovered In Botswana". Duluth News Tribune. https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/first-fragment-of-shattered-asteroid-recovered-in-botswana. 
  7. ↑ Geggel, Laura (June 28, 2019). "Astronomers Spotted a Car-Size Asteroid Just Hours Before Impact". Space.com. https://www.space.com/car-size-asteroid-hits-earth.html. 
  8. ↑ Baker, Harry (March 16, 2022). "Fridge-size asteroid detected just 2 hours before it slammed into Earth". Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/asteroid-discovered-before-hitting-earth. 
  9. ↑ Antier, Karl (March 13, 2022). "2022 EB5 : 5th predicted Earth impact!". News (International Meteor Organization). https://www.imo.net/2022-eb5-5th-predicted-earth-impactor-asteroid-on-march-11/. 
  10. ↑ "NASA Program Predicted Impact of Small Asteroid Over Ontario, Canada". NASA/JPL. November 22, 2022. https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasa-program-predicted-impact-of-small-asteroid-over-ontario-canada. 
  11. ↑ "Meteorite Falls: Grimsby, Ontario". NASA Johnson Space Center Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science. https://ares.jsc.nasa.gov/meteorite-falls/events/grimsby-ontario. 
  12. ↑ "CNEOS Predicts Another Small Asteroid Impact, This One over Northwestern France". NASA/JPL CNEOS. February 14, 2023. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news209.html. 
  13. ↑ Green, Daniel W. E. (March 6, 2023). "CBET 5230 : 2023 CX_1". Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams (5230). http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iau/cbet/005200/CBET005230.txt. 
  14. ↑ Price, Kiley (January 23, 2024). "Scientists discover near-Earth asteroid hours before it exploded over Berlin". Space.com. https://www.space.com/scientists-discover-near-earth-asteroid-hours-before-it-exploded-over-berlin. 
  15. ↑ Rea, Robert (January 31, 2024). "Meteorites from Asteroid 2024 Bx1, which just hit Earth, may be super-rare space rocks". Space.com. https://www.space.com/asteroid-2024-bx1-rare-space-rock-germany-earth-impact. 
  16. ↑ James Dinneen, Matthew Sparkes (September 4, 2024). "A small asteroid hit Earth and burned up over the Philippines". New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2446397-a-small-asteroid-hit-earth-and-burned-up-over-the-philippines/. 
  17. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-09-04). "Tiny asteroid burns up over Philippines. 'Discovered this morning,' ESA says". Space.com. https://www.space.com/asteroid-earth-impact-september-2024-rw1. 
  18. ↑ Green, Daniel (October 22, 2024). "2024 UQ". http://www.cbat.eps.harvard.edu/iau/cbet/005400/CBET005465.txt. 
  19. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-11-08). "An asteroid hit Earth just hours after being detected. It was the 3rd 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/asteroid-that-hit-earth-hours-after-being-detected-was-3rd-imminent-impactor-of-2024. 
  20. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-12-03). "Tiny asteroid detected hours before hitting Earth to become 4th 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. https://www.space.com/the-universe/asteroids/tiny-asteroid-detected-hours-before-hitting-earth-to-become-4th-imminent-impactor-of-2024. 
  21. ↑ Vishwam Sankaran (2024-12-04). "Asteroid on collision course with Russia burns up in spectacular fireball". Space.com. https://www.independent.co.uk/space/asteroid-collision-earth-russia-siberia-fireball-b2658439.html. 



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