Climate change in Turkey

Turkey is one of the countries which is being most affected by global warming.^[1][2] Annual temperatures are rising^[3] as are maximum temperatures.^[4] Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey are 1% of the global total^[5] and are forecast to rise substantially^[6] because the energy policy of Turkey is to heavily subsidize coal in Turkey.^[7]

Turkey emits about 500 Mt CO_2eq each year, about 6 tons per person.^[8] Almost three quarters is from the energy sector,^[8] the largest source being Turkey's coal-fired power stations.^[9]

Turkey is forecast to be more severely effected than many other countries,^[10][11] but effects will vary considerably across the regions of the country.^[12]

The weather is becoming more extreme.^[13] During the 21st century temperatures are forecast to rise by 2-3 °C on average and precipitation to significantly reduce.^[14] However, as well as more droughts more floods are predicted, due to rain falling instead of snow.^[15] The worst case is a 7 degree rise by 2100.^[16]

Wildfires have increased^[17] due to climate change.^[18]

Urban heatwaves,^[19] droughts,^[20] storms,^[21] and flooding,^[22] may increase.^[23] Sea level rise is forecast to affect city infrastructure, for example Istanbul Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding.^[15] Xeriscaping of green spaces has been suggested,^[24] and Istanbul has a climate change action plan.^[25] However, according to a 2018 study by Trakya University more local climate change action plans need to be prepared urgently.^[26]

Glaciers in Turkey including the glaciers on Mount Ararat are retreating.^[27] According to Professor Barış Karapınar, water is lost through evaporation due to old-fashioned irrigation techniques used by the Southeastern Anatolia Project, increasing the risk of severe water shortage.^[28] Reduced hydroelectricity in Turkey is forecast.^[29]

Unless global emissions are greatly reduced agriculture in Turkey, such as wheat,^[30][31] is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s especially in areas with rain fed agriculture.^[32] Arid and semi-arid areas are at risk of desertification.^[2] Irrigated agriculture will decline as water stress increases and increasing food imports will hit Turkey's trade balance.^[32] Damage to agriculture ^[33] is predicted to greatly increase.^[32] Pine nut production has been severely reduced.^[34]

The warming of Lake Van is reducing oxygen for pearl mullet.^[35]

Turkey, like neighbouring Iran, is one of the few countries that has signed but not ratified the Paris Agreement, in other words it is a signatory but not one of the parties to the agreement. The main opposition Republican People's Party has called for the agreement to be ratified.^[36]

Similarly Turkey has signed but not ratified the Kigali Amendment. It has no carbon tax or emissions trading scheme, therefore carbon capture and storage is not used as it is not economically viable.^[37] Also "given the fact that a new coal-fired power plant has a minimum of 40 years of economic life, Turkey's coal rush could create an inextricable carbon lock-in."^[10]

In 2019 some Turkish schoolchildren joined the School strike for climate^[38] and Turkey's branch of Extinction Rebellion demonstrated for Turkey to ratify the Paris Agreement.^[39]

Loss in Gross Domestic Product per capita by 2100 is forecast to be less than 1% for slight global warming (RCP 2.6 Scenario) but almost 8% for severe global warming (RCP 8.5 Scenario).^[40]

Muslim environmentalists and academics quote the Quran in support of their environmentalism,^[41] and in Istanbul in 2015 Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change.^[42][43]

The arts are raising awareness of climate change^[44] and education is supported by the EU.^[45]

Individual action on climate change is not properly understood (in a survey of primary school teachers many erroneously prioritised using less cosmetics) and neither are government choices on climate change mitigation (in the same survey only a minority correctly prioritised curbing fossil fuel use).^[46] Future warming of seawater by Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is wrongly thought by some to be relevant to climate change,^[12] and few know that geothermal power in Turkey might emit considerable CO
2^[47] (research on this due 2019 is being funded by the EBRD).

In 2019 the OECD recommended that adaptation efforts be increased,^[48] an international conference on local actions was held,^[49] and work on 12 regional adaptation plans continued.^[50] Protection of water resources and soil quality have been considered,^[51] however Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC.^[52]

In the 1990s independent media outlet Açık Radyo (Open Radio) was one of the first to cover climate change, and its founder Ömer Madra(in Turkish) emphasises "The three Y’s in the fight on climate change: Yerel (local) Yatay (horizontal, not vertical) and Yavaş (slow, no resort to violence)."^[53]

• Energy policy of Turkey

• Aşıcı, Ahmet Atıl (May 2017). "Climate friendly Green Economy Policies". Istanbul Policy Center. http://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GreenEconomyPolicies.pdf. 
• Atilgan, Burcin; Azapagic, Adisa (2016). "An integrated life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity generation in Turkey". Energy Policy 93: 168–186. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.055. 
• Jensen, Génon K. (May 2014). "THE UNPAID HEALTH BILL: HOW COAL POWER PLANTS IN TURKEY MAKE US SICK". Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL). http://env-health.org/IMG/pdf/19052015_hr_coal_report_turkey_final.pdf. 
• ŞAHIN, Ümit (April 2016). "TURKEY'S COAL POLICIES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMY AND HEALTH". Istanbul Policy Center. http://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Coal-Report-Turkeys-Coal-Policies-Related-to-Climate-Change-Economy-and-Health.pdf. 
• ŞAHIN, Ümit (February 2018). "CARBON LOCK-IN IN TURKEY". Istanbul Policy Center. http://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CarbonLockin_%C5%9Eahin_ENG.pdf. 
• Şahin, Ümit; Türkkan, Seçil (January 2019). "TURKEY'S CLIMATE POLICIES HAVE REACHED A DEADLOCK: IT TAKES COURAGE TO RESOLVE IT". saha Special Issue 2: 24–30. ISSN 2149-7885. https://www.hyd.org.tr/attachments/article/511/saha2en.pdf. 
• "SIXTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF TURKEY Under The UNFCCC". Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. 2016. https://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/application/pdf/6_bildirim_eng_11_reducedfilesize.pdf. 
• "Seventh National Communication of Turkey under the UNFCCC". Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. 26 December 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/496715_Turkey-NC7-1-7th%20National%20Communication%20of%20Turkey.pdf. 
• "OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Turkey 2019". OECD. OECD Environmental Performance Reviews. February 2019. doi:10.1787/9789264309753-en. ISBN 9789264309746. 
• Republic of Turkey Climate Change Action Plan 2011 - 2023 (Report). Ministry of Environment and Urbanization General Directorate of Environmental Management Climate Change Department. 2012. http://webdosya.csb.gov.tr/db/iklim/editordosya/file/eylem%20planlari/iklim_degisikligi_eylem_plani_EN_2014.pdf. 

• Istanbul International Centre for Energy and Climate

• Turkey-EU project
• European Climate Adaptation Platform (CLIMATE-ADAPT)
• NDC Registry
• CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY:Istanbul Policy Center: Sabanci University
• CDP Turkey 2017 Climate Change Report
• Turkey and climate change on Global Energy Monitor
• Climate Action Network Europe
• Climate Change Post
• EDAM

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