Blue Chip Economic Indicators

Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by Wolters Kluwer collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the economy of the United States.^[1] The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity.^[1] It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest rates.^[1]

History

Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts started in 1976.^[1]

Variables reported

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States:^[1]

Real GDP
GDP price index
Nominal GDP
Consumer price index
Industrial production
Real disposable personal income
Real personal consumption expenditures
Real non-residential fixed investment
Pre-tax corporate profits
3-month Treasury bill rate
10-year Treasury note yield
Unemployment rate
Total housing starts
Auto and light truck sales
Real Net exports

Reception

Academic reception

Many papers in the academic literature on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts have used the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for a data set of forecasts whose accuracy is to be evaluated.^[2]^[3] A paper by Laster, Bennett, and Geoum (1999) made a theoretical argument for how rational forecasters with identical information and incentives may still come up with divergent forecasts to maximize their probability of winning, and used the Blue chip Economic Indicators data to provide evidence supportive of their model. The paper noted: "The publisher of Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a monthly newsletter compiling dozens of professional economic forecasts, holds an annual dinner at which the most accurate forecaster for the previous year is honored. The winning forecaster is also identified in later issues of the newsletter."^[4]

The Congressional Budget Office has also cited Blue Chip Economic Indicators data in some of its publications.^[5]

Reception in the financial press and blogs

The results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators have also been used to inform discussion in the financial press and blogs, including Forbes and Barron's.^[6]^[7]^[8]

In March 2009, PolitiFact reported that a controversial statement made by Christina Romer based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators data had correctly cited the Blue Chip Economic Indicators.^[9]

References

↑ ^1.0 ^1.1 ^1.2 ^1.3 ^1.4 "Blue Chip Economic and Financial Indicators". Wolters Kluwer. https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/solutions/vitallaw-law-firms/blue-chip. Retrieved 2022-09-21.
↑ Swidler, Steve; Ketcher, David (February 1990). "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 22 (1): 65–76. doi:10.2307/1992128.
↑ Batchelor, Roy; Dua, Pami (November 1991). "Blue Chip Rationality Tests". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 23 (4): 692–705. doi:10.2307/1992704.
↑ Laster, David; Bennett, Paul; Geoum, In Sun (1999). "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts". The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (1): 293–318. doi:10.1162/003355399555918.
↑ Elmendorf, Douglas William (March 27, 2013). "How Different Future Interest Rates Would Affect Budget Deficits". Congressional Budget Office. http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44024. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
↑ Conerly, Bill (September 2, 2013). "Economic Assumptions For Your 2014 Business Plan". Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2013/09/02/economic-assumptions-for-your-2014-business-plan/. Retrieved April 21, 2014.
↑ Epstein, Gene (June 23, 2012). "The Chips Are a Mixed Bag: Blue Chip Economic Indicators puts its consensus odds of a recession over the next year at nearly one in four -- but it may be overemphasizing a soft patch.". Barron's. http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111903882904577482841514314030. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
↑ Barbera, Robert; Wright, Jonathan (March 2, 2014). "A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years". Center for Financial Economics, Johns Hopkins University. http://cfe.econ.jhu.edu/2014/03/a-consistent-set-of-interest-rate-and-real-growth-assumptions-suggests-stable-debt-to-gdp-ratios-in-the-out-years/. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
↑ Romer, Christina (March 15, 2009). "Last week the Blue Chip Economic Indicators came out that surveys lots of private forecasters. Almost all of them are predicting a turnaround in the third quarter and positive growth in the fourth quarter.". PolitiFact. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/mar/17/christina-romer/yes-take-prediction-grain-salt/. Retrieved April 13, 2014.

External links

Official website

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[publication-page-1] 1.0 ^1.1 ^1.2 ^1.3 ^1.4 "Blue Chip Economic and Financial Indicators". Wolters Kluwer. https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/solutions/vitallaw-law-firms/blue-chip. Retrieved 2022-09-21.

[2] Swidler, Steve; Ketcher, David (February 1990). "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 22 (1): 65–76. doi:10.2307/1992128.

[3] Batchelor, Roy; Dua, Pami (November 1991). "Blue Chip Rationality Tests". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 23 (4): 692–705. doi:10.2307/1992704.

[4] Laster, David; Bennett, Paul; Geoum, In Sun (1999). "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts". The Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (1): 293–318. doi:10.1162/003355399555918.

[5] Elmendorf, Douglas William (March 27, 2013). "How Different Future Interest Rates Would Affect Budget Deficits". Congressional Budget Office. http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44024. Retrieved April 13, 2014.

[6] Conerly, Bill (September 2, 2013). "Economic Assumptions For Your 2014 Business Plan". Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2013/09/02/economic-assumptions-for-your-2014-business-plan/. Retrieved April 21, 2014.

[7] Epstein, Gene (June 23, 2012). "The Chips Are a Mixed Bag: Blue Chip Economic Indicators puts its consensus odds of a recession over the next year at nearly one in four -- but it may be overemphasizing a soft patch.". Barron's. http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111903882904577482841514314030. Retrieved April 13, 2014.

[8] Barbera, Robert; Wright, Jonathan (March 2, 2014). "A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years". Center for Financial Economics, Johns Hopkins University. http://cfe.econ.jhu.edu/2014/03/a-consistent-set-of-interest-rate-and-real-growth-assumptions-suggests-stable-debt-to-gdp-ratios-in-the-out-years/. Retrieved April 13, 2014.

[9] Romer, Christina (March 15, 2009). "Last week the Blue Chip Economic Indicators came out that surveys lots of private forecasters. Almost all of them are predicting a turnaround in the third quarter and positive growth in the fourth quarter.". PolitiFact. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2009/mar/17/christina-romer/yes-take-prediction-grain-salt/. Retrieved April 13, 2014.

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