2024 Montana gubernatorial election

2024 Montana gubernatorial election
Turnout	76.57%4.76
	Gianforte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Busse: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; No votes
Governor before election; Greg Gianforte; Republican	Elected Governor ; Greg Gianforte; Republican

The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of Montana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.^[2] Incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Ryan Busse. Gianforte won by a 20% margin, which was larger than his 13% margin in 2020.^[3]

Though Montana has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1996, the sparsely populated Mountain state maintained a Democratic tendency at the state and U.S. Senate levels well through the 2010s. This was the first gubernatorial election since 1996 that a Republican was re-elected governor of Montana.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Greg Gianforte, incumbent governor (2021–present)^[4]
- Running mate: Kristen Juras, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present)^[4]

Eliminated in primary

Tanner Smith, state representative (2023–present)^[5]
- Running mate: Randy Pinocci, member of the Montana Public Service Commission (2019–present)^[6]

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

Organizations

National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund^[7]
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America^[8]

Results

Republican primary results^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Greg Gianforte (incumbent) Kristen Juras (incumbent)	144,752	75.2%
	Republican	Tanner Smith Randy Pinocci	47,747	24.8%
Total votes			192,499	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Ryan Busse, author and former vice president of sales at Kimber Manufacturing^[10]
- Running mate: Raph Graybill, former chief legal counsel to Governor Steve Bullock and nominee for Attorney General in 2020^[11]

Eliminated in primary

Jim Hunt, attorney and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2008^[12]
- Running mate: Jerry Driscoll, former executive secretary of the Montana AFL-CIO^[13]

Withdrawn

Shawn White Wolf, perennial candidate^[14]

Results

Democratic primary results^[15]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ryan Busse Raph Graybill	69,184	70.9%
	Democratic	Jim Hunt Jerry Driscoll	28,354	29.1%
Total votes			97,538	100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Kaiser Leib, software engineer^[12]
- Running mate: Matt Campbell, transportation engineer^[13]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[16]	Solid R	June 13, 2024
Inside Elections^[17]	Solid R	July 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[18]	Safe R	June 4, 2024
RCP^[19]	Likely R	July 13, 2024
Elections Daily^[20]	Safe R	July 12, 2023
CNalysis^[21]	Solid R	August 17, 2024

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Greg Gianforte (R)	Ryan Busse (D)	Other	Undecided
Montana State University^[22]	September 30 – October 16, 2024	760 (A)	± 3.56%	50%	31%	5%^[b]	14%
The New York Times/Siena College^[23]	October 5–8, 2024	656 (LV)	± 4.3%	57%	35%	–	8%
The New York Times/Siena College^[23]	October 5–8, 2024	656 (RV)	± 4.3%	57%	35%	–	9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[24]^[A]	September 29 – October 1, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.34%	55%	36%	1%^[c]	7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)^[25]^[B]	August 25–29, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	54%	38%	–	8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[26]^[A]	August 18–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.38%	53%	34%	4%^[d]	8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[26]^[A]	June 11–13, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	54%	33%	5%^[e]	8%
SurveyUSA^[27]^[C]	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%	52%	30%	–	18%

Results

2024 Montana gubernatorial election^[28]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Greg Gianforte (incumbent) Kristen Juras (incumbent)	354,569	58.86%	+4.43%
	Democratic	Ryan Busse Raph Graybill	232,644	38.62%	−2.94%
	Libertarian	Kaiser Leib Matt Campbell	15,191	2.52%	−1.49%
Total votes			602,404	100.00%	N/A
Turnout			612,423	76.57%
Registered electors			799,849
	Republican hold

By county

Source^[29]

County	Greg Gianforte Republican		Ryan Busse Democratic		Kaiser Leib Libertarian		Margin		Total
County	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Total
Beaverhead	4,139	71.72%	1,511	26.18%	121	2.10%	2,628	45.54%	5,771
Big Horn	2,206	49.56%	2,118	47.58%	127	2.85%	88	1.98%	4,451
Blaine	1,555	51.42%	1,387	45.87%	82	2.71%	168	5.56%	3,024
Broadwater	3,723	77.59%	930	19.38%	145	3.02%	2,793	58.21%	4,798
Carbon	4,812	65.46%	2,370	32.24%	169	2.30%	2,442	33.22%	7,351
Carter	774	91.60%	53	6.27%	18	2.13%	721	85.33%	845
Cascade	23,339	62.08%	13,324	35.44%	932	2.48%	10,015	26.64%	37,595
Chouteau	1,994	68.03%	888	30.30%	49	1.67%	1,106	37.73%	2,931
Custer	4,203	72.59%	1,417	24.47%	170	2.94%	2,786	48.12%	5,790
Daniels	787	83.10%	140	14.78%	20	2.11%	647	68.32%	947
Dawson	3,553	77.19%	926	20.12%	124	2.69%	2,627	57.07%	4,603
Deer Lodge	2,259	46.22%	2,487	50.88%	142	2.91%	-228	-4.66%	4,888
Fallon	1,302	87.44%	158	10.61%	29	1.95%	1,144	76.83%	1,489
Fergus	4,945	73.79%	1,602	23.91%	154	2.30%	3,343	49.89%	6,701
Flathead	41,539	65.88%	20,064	31.82%	1,451	2.30%	21,475	34.06%	63,054
Gallatin	32,843	47.06%	35,200	50.44%	1,742	2.50%	-2,357	-3.38%	69,785
Garfield	752	94.83%	34	4.29%	7	0.88%	718	90.54%	793
Glacier	1,955	38.37%	2,986	58.61%	154	3.02%	-1,031	-20.24%	5,095
Golden Valley	440	84.94%	67	12.93%	11	2.12%	373	72.00%	518
Granite	1,507	69.56%	613	28.30%	46	2.12%	894	41.27%	2,166
Hill	3,910	57.65%	2,666	39.31%	206	3.04%	1,244	18.34%	6,782
Jefferson	5,507	66.17%	2,605	31.30%	211	2.54%	2,902	34.87%	8,323
Judith Basin	1,090	80.27%	234	17.23%	34	2.50%	856	63.03%	1,358
Lake	9,937	58.97%	6,485	38.49%	428	2.54%	3,452	20.49%	16,850
Lewis and Clark	21,678	51.49%	19,360	45.98%	1,065	2.53%	2,318	5.51%	42,103
Liberty	787	78.70%	204	20.40%	9	0.90%	583	58.30%	1,000
Lincoln	8,820	75.05%	2,634	22.41%	298	2.54%	6,186	52.64%	11,752
Madison	4,611	71.25%	1,726	26.67%	135	2.09%	2,885	44.58%	6,472
McCone	922	85.13%	142	13.11%	19	1.75%	780	72.02%	1,083
Meagher	894	76.77%	245	21.01%	27	2.32%	649	55.66%	1,166
Mineral	2,026	71.97%	708	25.15%	81	2.88%	1,318	46.82%	2,815
Missoula	27,670	38.00%	43,378	59.58%	1,762	2.42%	-15,708	-21.57%	72,810
Musselshell	2,555	85.20%	369	12.30%	75	2.50%	2,186	72.89%	2,999
Park	5,947	50.72%	5,442	46.41%	336	2.87%	505	4.31%	11,725
Petroleum	287	86.97%	35	10.61%	8	2.42%	252	76.36%	330
Phillips	1,786	81.48%	368	16.79%	38	1.73%	1,418	64.69%	2,192
Pondera	2,054	72.07%	743	26.07%	53	1.86%	1,311	46.00%	2,850
Powder River	960	87.59%	123	11.22%	13	1.19%	837	76.37%	1,096
Powell	2,413	73.75%	735	22.46%	124	3.79%	1,678	51.28%	3,272
Prairie	540	78.49%	125	18.17%	23	3.34%	415	60.32%	688
Ravalli	20,740	69.60%	8,387	28.14%	673	2.26%	12,353	41.45%	29,800
Richland	4,324	82.72%	748	14.31%	155	2.97%	3,576	68.41%	5,227
Roosevelt	2,112	54.62%	1,656	42.63%	107	2.75%	456	11.74%	3,885
Rosebud	2,469	66.86%	1,129	30.57%	95	2.57%	1,340	36.28%	3,693
Sanders	6,088	75.68%	1,714	21.31%	242	3.01%	4,374	54.38%	8,044
Sheridan	1,365	72.30%	466	24.68%	57	3.02%	899	47.62%	1,888
Silver Bow	7,790	42.74%	9,866	54.13%	569	3.12%	-2,076	-11.39%	18,225
Stillwater	4,709	79.58%	1,076	18.18%	132	2.23%	3,633	61.40%	5,917
Sweet Grass	1,805	75.78%	510	21.41%	67	2.81%	1,295	54.37%	2,382
Teton	2,612	73.00%	891	24.90%	75	2.10%	1,721	48.10%	3,578
Toole	1,632	80.08%	355	17.42%	51	2.50%	1,277	62.66%	2,038
Treasure	384	85.91%	47	10.51%	16	3.58%	337	75.39%	447
Valley	3,009	73.80%	961	23.57%	107	2.62%	2,048	50.23%	4,077
Wheatland	854	79.22%	203	18.83%	21	1.95%	651	60.39%	1,078
Wibaux	454	83.61%	77	14.18%	12	2.21%	377	69.43%	543
Yellowstone	51,191	62.95%	27,956	34.38%	2,174	2.67%	23,235	28.60%	81,321

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Blaine (largest city: Chinook)
Big Horn (largest city: Hardin)
Lewis and Clark (largest city: Helena)
Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)

By congressional district

Gianforte won both congressional districts.^[29]

District	Gianforte	Busse	Representative
1st	54%	43%	Ryan Zinke
2nd	64%	33%	Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
2nd	64%	33%	Troy Downing (119th Congress)

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%
^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 1%
^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 4%
^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%

Partisan clients

^ ^a ^b ^c Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
^ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

References

^ "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. December 19, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2025.
^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
^ "Busse and Gianforte win their respective primary races". KRTV NEWS Great Falls. June 5, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
^ ^a ^b Anthony, Michael (January 17, 2024). "Governor Greg Gianforte to seek reelection". KFYR-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
^ Larson, Seaborn (June 13, 2023). "Freshman GOP Rep. announces run for governor". Independent Record.
^ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex; Eggert, Amanda (April 15, 2024). "Who's running for office in Montana's 2024 election". Montana Free Press. Retrieved May 2, 2024.
^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
^ Stacy, Nicole (May 3, 2024). "SBA Pro-Life America Candidate Fund Endorses Gianforte for Governor". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
^ "Montana Governor Primary Election 2024 Live Results". www.nbcnews.com. December 4, 2024.
^ Hanson, Amy; Brown, Matthew (September 14, 2023). "Former firearms executive Busse seeks Democratic nomination for Montana governor". Associated Press. Retrieved September 14, 2023.
^ Silvers, Mara (February 19, 2024). "Busse taps Graybill as running mate in bid for governor's office". Montana Free Press. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
^ ^a ^b "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
^ ^a ^b Ambarian, Jonathon (March 11, 2024). "Top Montana election races set as candidate filing period closes". KTVH. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
^ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex (November 28, 2023). "Who's running for office in Montana in 2024? Here's a running list". Montana Free Press. Retrieved January 17, 2024. Shawn White Wolf, who has run for a number of different positions in the Helena area in recent years, filed to run for governor in 2023 but has since withdrawn his candidacy.
^ "Montana Governor Primary Election 2024 Live Results". www.nbcnews.com. December 4, 2024.
^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
^ "Montana State University" (PDF).
^ "Cross-Tabs: October 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Montana". The New York Times. October 10, 2024 – via NYTimes.com.
^ "Public Opinion Strategies (R)" (PDF).
^ "Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)" (PDF).
^ ^a ^b Public Opinion Strategies (R)
^ Journalist, Bobby Lee NonStop Local Digital (February 23, 2024). "Governor Gianforte leads against Busse in MT election poll conducted by NonStop Local". NonStop Local Montana.
^ "2024 Statewide General Election Canvass". Secretary of State of Montana. December 11, 2024. Retrieved December 11, 2024.
^ ^a ^b "2024 General Election - November 5, 2024". Election Results at MT.gov. Montana Secretary of State. December 19, 2024. Retrieved April 29, 2025.

External links

Official campaign websites

[Key-22] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[24] Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%

[28] Kaiser Leib (L) with 1%

[32] Kaiser Leib (L) with 4%

[33] Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%

[mtgop-27] Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party

[30] Poll sponsored by AARP.

[35] Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

[1] "Montana Voter Turnout". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. December 19, 2024. Retrieved July 23, 2025.

[2] "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. Retrieved August 6, 2023.

[3] "Busse and Gianforte win their respective primary races". KRTV NEWS Great Falls. June 5, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.

[gianforte-4] Anthony, Michael (January 17, 2024). "Governor Greg Gianforte to seek reelection". KFYR-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2024.

[5] Larson, Seaborn (June 13, 2023). "Freshman GOP Rep. announces run for governor". Independent Record.

[6] Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex; Eggert, Amanda (April 15, 2024). "Who's running for office in Montana's 2024 election". Montana Free Press. Retrieved May 2, 2024.

[7] NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.

[8] Stacy, Nicole (May 3, 2024). "SBA Pro-Life America Candidate Fund Endorses Gianforte for Governor". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved May 6, 2024.

[9] "Montana Governor Primary Election 2024 Live Results". www.nbcnews.com. December 4, 2024.

[10] Hanson, Amy; Brown, Matthew (September 14, 2023). "Former firearms executive Busse seeks Democratic nomination for Montana governor". Associated Press. Retrieved September 14, 2023.

[11] Silvers, Mara (February 19, 2024). "Busse taps Graybill as running mate in bid for governor's office". Montana Free Press. Retrieved February 20, 2024.

[:0-12] "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.

[set-13] Ambarian, Jonathon (March 11, 2024). "Top Montana election races set as candidate filing period closes". KTVH. Retrieved April 5, 2024.

[14] Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex (November 28, 2023). "Who's running for office in Montana in 2024? Here's a running list". Montana Free Press. Retrieved January 17, 2024. Shawn White Wolf, who has run for a number of different positions in the Helena area in recent years, filed to run for governor in 2023 but has since withdrawn his candidacy.

[15] "Montana Governor Primary Election 2024 Live Results". www.nbcnews.com. December 4, 2024.

[16] "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[Inside_Elections2-17] "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-18] "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[19] "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.

[20] "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[21] "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.

[23] "Montana State University" (PDF).

[25] "Cross-Tabs: October 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Montana". The New York Times. October 10, 2024 – via NYTimes.com.

[26] "Public Opinion Strategies (R)" (PDF).

[29] "Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)" (PDF).

[Public_Opinion_Strategies_R-31] Public Opinion Strategies (R)

[34] Journalist, Bobby Lee NonStop Local Digital (February 23, 2024). "Governor Gianforte leads against Busse in MT election poll conducted by NonStop Local". NonStop Local Montana.

[36] "2024 Statewide General Election Canvass". Secretary of State of Montana. December 11, 2024. Retrieved December 11, 2024.

[MTsos-37] "2024 General Election - November 5, 2024". Election Results at MT.gov. Montana Secretary of State. December 19, 2024. Retrieved April 29, 2025.

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2024 Montana gubernatorial election

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

General election

Predictions

Polling

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

See also

Notes

References

External links