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2016 United States presidential election in New York

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Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in New York
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout67.3% (Increase 8.1 pp)
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance
Parties
 Conservative
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 4,556,124 2,819,534
Percentage 59.38% 36.75%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in New York State
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Pre-consolidation:

Post-consolidation:

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Mayoral elections

The 2016 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New York has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

Prior to the election, New York was considered to be a state that Clinton would win or a safe blue state. Despite Trump's association with the state, New York remained a Democratic stronghold with Clinton winning with 59.01% of the vote, while Trump received 36.52% of the vote, a 22.49% Democratic margin of victory. However, Trump won more counties, taking 45 counties statewide compared to Clinton's 17.[2] Trump also flipped 19 counties that had voted for Barack Obama in 2012, tied with Minnesota for the third-most counties flipped in any state; only Iowa and Wisconsin had more. Clinton received a smaller vote share than outgoing President Barack Obama had in 2012, while Trump improved on Mitt Romney's performance despite losing the state by a large margin.

New York was the home state of both major party nominees, though Clinton was born and raised in Chicago. Trump was born and raised in New York City and has been long associated with the state. Clinton has been a resident of Chappaqua in suburban Westchester County since 1999 and represented the state in the U.S. Senate from 2001 to 2009. Trump became the second consecutive major-party presidential nominee to lose his home state by over 20 points, after Mitt Romney, who lost his home state of Massachusetts by a similar margin in 2012. Before Romney, the last nominee this happened to was Herbert Hoover in his home state of California during 1932. Trump also became the fourth winning presidential candidate to lose his state of residence, after James K. Polk, Woodrow Wilson, and Richard Nixon. Trump and Polk are the only ones to have lost their state of birth as well (also New York in Trump's case).

The election also marks the most recent cycle in which Trump would be on the presidential ballot as a legal resident of New York state; according to court filings, he registered Palm Beach, Florida, as his "primary residence" in 2019.[3] Trump is also the first Republican presidential candidate to win the White House without carrying Dutchess County since Ulysses S. Grant in 1872. This is also the first time since 1988 in which New York did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Pennsylvania. As of the 2024 election, this is the most recent election where Saratoga County and Rensselaer County have voted Republican.

Primary elections

[edit]
Hillary Clinton at her 2016 campaign kickoff on Roosevelt Island

On April 19, 2016, in the presidential primaries, New York voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated with either party didn't vote in the primary.[4]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 New York Democratic presidential primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[5]

Similarly to the general election, both candidates in the Democratic primary had a connection to New York, as New York was Clinton's adopted home state and the birthplace of Sanders (who was running from neighboring Vermont).

New York City results

[edit]
2016 Democratic primary Manhattan The Bronx Brooklyn Queens Staten Island Total
Hillary Clinton 190,806 105,719 183,662 133,210 17,612 631,009
64.42% 68.76% 59.07% 61.32% 52.40% 62.65%
Bernie Sanders 98,194 46,189 123,872 81,762 15,471 365,488
33.67% 30.04% 39.84% 37.64% 46.03% 36.29%
Blank, Void 2,656 1,834 3,372 2,272 530 10,664
1.91% 1.2% 1.09% 1.04% 1.57% 1.06%
TOTAL 291,656 153,742 310,906 217,244 33,613 1,007,161
TURNOUT 47.20% 31.31% 36.42% 32.15% 28.17% 36.52%

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2016 New York Republican presidential primary

Three candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[5]

Republican primary results by county

[edit]
County Carson* % Cruz % Kasich % Trump % BVS Total Turnout MV%
Albany 150 1.04% 2,390 16.58% 5,026 34.87% 6,793 41.13% 55 14,414 41.25% 12.26%
Allegany 156 2.93% 1,159 21.74% 1,175 22.05% 2,827 53.04% 13 5,330 43.63% 30.99%
Bronx 127 1.75% 1,164 16.00% 1,148 15.78% 4,730 65.00% 108 7,277 19.57% 49.00%
Broome 286 1.55% 3,953 21.45% 5,138 27.88% 8,923 48.42% 130 18,430 45.32% 20.54%
Cattaraugus 113 1.74% 1,298 19.97% 1,419 21.83% 3,636 55.93% 35 6,501 38.22% 31.10%
Cayuga 70 1.13% 1,136 18.38% 1,942 31.42% 3,024 48.92% 9 6,181 37.92% 17.51%
Chautauqua 177 1.85% 2,016 21.08% 2,294 23.99% 5,027 52.57% 49 9,563 38.35% 28.58%
Chemung N/A 1,820 21.16% 2,372 27.58% 4,208 48.92% 201 8,601 42.99% 21.35%
Chenango 87 1.64% 1,133 21.31% 1,394 26.22% 2,659 50.02% 43 5,316 43.33% 23.80%
Clinton N/A 739 15.77% 1,389 29.64% 2,487 53.06% 72 4,687 33.05% 23.43%
Columbia 63 1.32% 744 15.62% 1,271 26.68% 2,662 55.88% 24 4,764 40.46% 29.20%
Cortland N/A 900 22.66% 1,276 32.13% 1,710 43.06% 85 3,971 41.05% 10.93%
Delaware 91 1.85% 846 17.19% 1,142 23.21% 2,831 57.53% 11 4,921 42.63% 34.32%
Dutchess 213 1.05% 2,840 13.94% 4,401 21.60% 12,872 63.18% 46 20,372 40.07% 41.58%
Erie N/A 7,964 12.93% 13,136 21.33% 39,589 64.27% 907 61,596 42.04% 42.95%
Essex 68 1.71% 664 16.72% 1,274 32.07% 1,918 48.29% 48 3,972 36.82% 16.21%
Franklin 62 2.27% 433 15.83% 763 27.90% 1,460 53.38% 17 2,735 32.34% 25.48%
Fulton 72 1.17% 1,036 16.85% 1,552 25.24% 3,456 56.20% 34 6,150 39.59% 30.96%
Genesee N/A 1,032 16.54% 1,282 20.54% 3,815 61.13% 112 6,241 40.16% 40.59%
Greene N/A 705 16.39% 838 19.48% 2,689 62.52% 69 4,301 37.08% 43.04%
Hamilton N/A 210 18.77% 326 29.13% 565 50.49% 18 1,119 44.89% 21.36%
Herkimer 107 1.47% 1,042 14.35% 1,877 25.85% 4,193 57.75% 42 7,261 41.32% 31.90%
Jefferson 121 1.28% 1,235 13.10% 2,860 30.34% 5,190 55.07% 19 9,425 41.69% 24.72%
Kings (Brooklyn) 255 1.01% 4,872 19.32% 4,024 15.96% 15,920 63.14% 144 25,215 25.12% 43.82%
Lewis 71 2.29% 476 15.36% 898 28.99% 1,643 53.03% 10 3,098 36.49% 24.05%
Livingston 116 1.62% 1,329 18.54% 1,724 24.05% 3,957 55.20% 43 7,169 43.60% 31.15%
Madison N/A 1,358 19.87% 2,214 32.39% 3,108 45.47% 155 6,835 43.72% 13.08%
Monroe 685 1.24% 9,537 17.23% 16,870 30.47% 28,034 50.63% 239 55,365 43.98% 20.16%
Montgomery 42 1.12% 793 21.15% 865 23.07% 2,039 54.39% 10 3,749 39.85% 31.32%
Nassau N/A 9,902 9.54% 22,722 21.90% 69,692 67.17% 1,437 103,753 32.35% 45.27%
New York (Manhattan) 254 0.93% 3,586 13.08% 12,181 44.43% 11,196 40.84% 198 27,415 32.30% −3.59%
Niagara 245 1.40% 2,406 13.78% 3,321 19.02% 11,450 65.56% 43 17,465 41.26% 46.54%
Oneida 252 1.23% 3,335 16.33% 5,398 26.44% 11,332 55.50% 102 20,419 43.10% 29.06%
Onondaga 307 0.91% 6,075 17.97% 12,055 35.67% 15,155 44.84% 207 33,799 41.76% 9.17%
Ontario 180 1.60% 2,061 18.37% 3,380 30.13% 5,558 49.55% 39 11,218 43.02% 19.42%
Orange 217 0.89% 3,120 12.75% 4,372 17.87% 16,659 68.07% 104 24,472 35.94% 50.21%
Orleans 61 1.45% 720 16.65% 799 18.95% 2,643 62.69% 11 4,216 40.68% 43.74%
Oswego 188 1.57% 2,026 16.88% 3,285 27.37% 6,423 53.52% 80 12,002 38.57% 26.15%
Otsego 96 1.78% 1,035 19.20% 1,516 28.12% 2,719 50.43% 26 5,392 41.92% 22.31%
Putnam 61 0.70% 986 11.36% 1,587 18.28% 6,027 69.44% 19 8,680 40.96% 51.15%
Queens 342 1.08% 4,495 14.20% 5,601 17.69% 20,951 66.18% 268 31,657 27.36% 48.49%
Rensselaer 100 1.10% 1,576 17.27% 2,600 28.48% 4,758 52.13% 94 9,128 38.70% 23.64%
Richmond (Staten Island) 120 0.45% 2,096 7.90% 2,690 10.14% 21,521 81.09% 114 26,541 34.76% 70.95%
Rockland 104 0.70% 2,367 15.92% 3,158 21.24% 9,219 62.00% 21 14,869 34.71% 40.76%
St. Lawrence 124 1.74% 1,074 15.04% 2,036 28.52% 3,825 53.58% 80 7,139 36.07% 25.06%
Saratoga 240 0.97% 4,404 17.85% 8,272 33.52% 11,673 47.30% 88 24,677 41.91% 13.78%
Schenectady N/A 2,010 20.93% 2,946 30.67% 4,496 46.81% 152 9,604 41.32% 16.14%
Schoharie N/A 640 22.74% 638 22.66% 1,497 53.18% 40 2,815 39.99% 30.44%
Schuyler 42 2.21% 405 21.35% 461 24.30% 979 51.61% 10 1,897 40.85% 27.31%
Seneca 56 1.85% 521 17.21% 854 28.20% 1,585 52.34% 12 3,028 40.86% 24.14%
Steuben 262 2.24% 2,401 20.50% 2,755 23.52% 6,252 53.37% 44 11,714 42.09% 29.85%
Suffolk 735 0.73% 9,099 9.01% 18,694 18.52% 72,359 71.67% 77 100,964 34.15% 53.15%
Sullivan N/A 534 13.19% 687 16.98% 2,742 67.75% 84 4,047 33.08% 50.78%
Tioga 126 2.09% 1,429 23.68% 1,546 25.62% 2,926 48.48% 8 6,035 44.66% 22.87%
Tompkins 105 2.11% 1,342 26.96% 1,691 33.98% 1,821 36.59% 18 4,977 42.82% 2.61%
Ulster 142 1.41% 1,332 13.19% 2,197 21.75% 6,388 63.24% 43 10,102 36.63% 41.49%
Warren 101 1.28% 1,206 15.28% 2,772 35.12% 3,761 47.64% 54 7,894 42.15% 12.53%
Washington 7 0.13% 1,048 19.15% 1,839 33.61% 2,458 44.92% 120 5,472 37.60% 11.31%
Wayne N/A 1,627 19.99% 2,016 24.77% 4,472 54.94% 156 8,271 38.12% 30.17%
Westchester 376 0.83% 5,245 11.59% 13,599 30.06% 25,880 57.20% 147 45,247 35.31% 27.14%
Wyoming N/A 749 17.40% 724 16.82% 2,752 63.94% 79 4,304 40.10% 46.54%
Yates 43 1.56% 425 15.44% 884 32.11% 1,388 50.42% 13 2,753 43.29% 18.31%
Total 8,018* 0.86% 136,083 14.53% 231,166 24.69% 554,522 59.22% 6,636 936,525 36.35% 34.53%

*Note: Blank, Void, and Scattering (BVS) votes include some votes for Former Candidate Ben Carson. Carson vote totals are unavailable in some county canvass returns. Only those available are posted. New York is a Closed primary state, meaning that the turnout is based on Active Republican Voters on April 1, 2016

Results by congressional district

[edit]
CD Carson Cruz Kasich Trump BVS Total TO% MV%
1 0 4,972 9,307 38,802 426 53,507 34.94% 55.12%
2 0 3,820 8,273 35,902 461 48,456 32.07% 57.02%
3 17 4,315 11,271 31,642 339 47,584 32.42% 42.81%
4 0 5,936 12,701 36,530 910 56,077 33.58% 42.49%
5 80 1,215 1,361 5,234 113 8,003 24.69% 48.39%
6 123 1,947 2,388 8,817 0 13,275 27.29% 48.43%
7 73 771 1,073 2,117 0 4,034 20.43% 25.88%
8 81 773 836 5,217 0 6,907 25.48% 63.43%
9 67 1,412 1,034 3,499 0 6,012 23.64% 34.71%
10 98 2,720 4,507 5,716 0 13,041 31.29% 9.27%
11 155 2,669 3,462 25,617 114 32,017 32.78% 69.20%
12 129 2,103 7,836 7,712 0 17,780 33.80% −0.70%
13 82 624 800 1,408 0 2,914 17.87% 20.86%
14 106 1,065 1,297 5,348 0 7,816 25.37% 51.83%
15 53 287 156 690 0 1,186 8.94% 33.98%
16 201 2,491 6,142 11,651 56 20,541 32.80% 26.82%
17 278 4,755 9,101 21,206 92 35,432 35.35% 34.16%
18 418 6,273 10,134 32,869 136 49,830 37.83% 45.63%
19 575 8,400 11,998 30,550 302 51,825 38.20% 35.80%
20 335 7,903 14,618 21,276 213 44,345 41.34% 15.01%
21 772 10,285 19,424 32,607 476 63,564 38.47% 20.74%
22 865 12,721 18,515 34,322 543 66,966 43.00% 23.60%
23 1,116 13,061 16,086 31,742 406 62,411 41.27% 25.09%
24 377 9,950 17,961 26,073 508 54,869 40.22% 14.78%
25 644 8,967 15,952 26,211 237 52,011 43.80% 19.72%
26 55 4,698 7,852 22,270 521 35,396 40.45% 40.73%
27 525 11,389 16,259 47,151 626 75,950 42.91% 40.67%
7,225 135,522 230,344 552,179 6,479 931,749 36.50% 34.54%

New York City results

[edit]
2016 Republican Primary Manhattan The Bronx Brooklyn Queens Staten Island Total
Donald Trump 11,196 4,730 15,920 20,951 21,521 74,318
40.84% 65.00% 63.14% 66.18% 81.09% 62.93%
John Kasich 12,181 1,148 4,024 5,601 2,690 25,644
44.43% 15.78% 15.96% 17.69% 10.14% 21.71%
Ted Cruz 3,586 1,164 4,872 4,495 2,096 16,213
13.08% 16.00% 19.32% 14.20% 7.90% 13.73%
Ben Carson 254 127 255 342 120 1,098
0.93% 1.75% 1.01% 1.08% 0.45% 0.93%
Blank, Void 198 108 144 268 114 832
0.72% 1.48% 0.57% 0.85% 0.43% 0.70%
TOTAL 27,415 7,277 25,215 31,657 26,541 118,105
TURNOUT 32.30% 19.57% 25.12% 27.36% 34.76% 28.49%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[6] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[7] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[8] Safe D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[9] Safe D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[10] Safe D November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[12] Safe D November 8, 2016
Fox News[13] Safe D November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election § New York

Polls projected New York to remain safely in the Democratic column for former Senator Hillary Clinton, despite it also being the home state of Donald Trump for his entire life. The last poll showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 51% to 34%, and the average of the final 3 polls statewide showed Clinton leading Trump 52% to 31%, which was accurate compared to the results.[14]

Debate

[edit]

The first Presidential Debate took place at Hofstra University. Snap polls indicated that Clinton won.

Candidates

[edit]

New York is a fusion state, which means that candidates are allowed to be on multiple lines. Those on the ballot were:

Democratic, Women's Equality and Working Families Parties

Conservative and Republican parties

Green party

Independence and Libertarian parties

Gary Johnson and Bill Weld were nominated by the Libertarian and Independence Parties using separate elector slates. Their votes have been added together in the below table for convenience.[15]

With the introduction of computerized voting, write-in candidates were permitted. The following is a certified list of persons who made valid presidential write in filings with the State Board of Elections[16]

  • Arantxa Aranja
  • Neer R. Asherie
  • Mark Blickley
  • Robert L. Buchanan
  • Gary S. Canns
  • Willie Carter
  • Darrell Castle
  • Ariel T. Cohen
  • William J. Connolly
  • Rocky De La Fuente
  • Jason Fried
  • Zoltan Istvan Gyurko
  • Ben Hartnell
  • Tom Hoefling
  • Michael Frederick Ingbar
  • Lynn Kahn
  • Chris Keniston
  • Gloria La Riva
  • Jeffrey Mackler
  • Mike Maturen
  • Evan McMullin
  • Monica Moorehead
  • Jason Mutford
  • Clifton Roberts
  • Marshall Schoenke
  • Ryan Alan Scott
  • Emidio Soltysik
  • Tony Valdivia
  • J. J. Vogel-Walcutt
  • Esther Welsh
  • Barbara Whitaker
  • Robert M. Wolff

According to The New York Times, only 300 write-in votes were counted in 2012,[17] while 63,239 were recorded as "Blank, Void or Scattering".[18]

Results

[edit]
2016 United States presidential election in New York[19]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 4,379,783 56.08%
Working Families Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 140,043 1.83%
Women's Equality Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 36,292 0.47%
Total Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 4,556,118 59.38% 29
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 2,527,141 32.94%
Conservative Donald Trump Mike Pence 292,392 3.81%
Total Donald Trump Mike Pence 2,819,533 36.75% 0
Independence Gary Johnson Bill Weld 119,160 1.55% 0
Libertarian Gary Johnson Bill Weld 57,438 0.75% 0
Total Gary Johnson Bill Weld 176,598 2.30%
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 107,935 1.41% 0
Official write-in Evan McMullin Mindy Finn 10,397 0.14% 0
Official write-in Others Others 2,518 0.03% 0
Totals 7,673,099 100.00% 29

New York City results

[edit]
2016 Presidential Election in New York City Manhattan The Bronx Brooklyn Queens Staten Island Total
Democratic-
Working Families-
Women's Equality 		Hillary Clinton 579,013 353,646 640,553 517,220 78,143 2,159,575 78.99%
86.6% 88.5% 79.5% 75.4% 41.0%
Republican-
Conservative 		Donald Trump 64,930 37,797 141,044 149,341 101,437 494,549 18.1%
9.7% 9.5% 17.5% 21.8% 56.1%
Others Others 24,997 8,079 24,008 19,832 5,380 82,296 3.0%
3.7% 2.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0%
TOTAL 668,940 399,522 805,605 686,393 184,960 2,736,420 100.00%

By New York City Council district

[edit]

Clinton won 47 of 51 New York City Council districts, including one held by a Republican, while Trump won 4 of 51 city council districts, including two held by Democrats.[20]

New York City Council district results
District Clinton Trump City-Council Member
1st 83.3% 12.6% Margaret Chin
2nd 86.6% 9.3% Rosie Méndez
3rd 87.1% 9.0% Corey Johnson
4th 78.1% 17.5% Daniel Garodnick
5th 80.1% 15.5% Ben Kallos
6th 87.2% 9.0% Helen Rosenthal
7th 91.9% 4.8% Mark Levine
8th 92.8% 5.0% Melissa Mark-Viverito
9th 94.6% 2.7% Inez Dickens
10th 89.8% 7.1% Ydanis Rodriguez
11th 81.5% 15.1% Andrew Cohen
12th 94.1% 4.3% Andy King
13th 66.6% 30.5% James Vacca
14th 93.0% 5.3% Fernando Cabrera
15th 92.1% 6.1% Ritchie Torres
16th 94.8% 3.9% Vanessa Gibson
17th 93.5% 4.8% Rafael Salamanca
18th 91.6% 6.6% Annabel Palma
19th 54.6% 41.9% Paul Vallone
20th 69.0% 28.1% Peter Koo
21st 87.3% 10.5% Julissa Ferreras
22nd 77.3% 18.5% Costa Constantinides
23rd 71.0% 26.2% Barry Grodenchik
24th 72.3% 24.7% Rory Lancman
25th 80.0% 17.0% Daniel Dromm
26th 82.1% 14.4% Jimmy Van Bramer
27th 94.8% 3.7% Daneek Miller
28th 91.2% 7.4% Adrienne Adams
29th 68.8% 27.4% Karen Koslowitz
30th 56.4% 39.9% Elizabeth Crowley
31st 89.1% 9.0% Donovan Richards
32nd 59.6% 37.6% Eric Ulrich
33rd 85.6% 10.4% Stephen Levin
34th 89.1% 7.2% Antonio Reynoso
35th 91.6% 5.3% Laurie Cumbo
36th 95.1% 1.9% Robert Cornegy
37th 91.8% 5.5% Rafael Espinal
38th 79.7% 16.8% Carlos Menchaca
39th 85.0% 11.4% Brad Lander
40th 91.9% 5.3% Mathieu Eugene
41st 95.6% 2.7% Darlene Mealy
42nd 95.2% 3.5% Inez Barron
43rd 54.7% 40.9% Vincent J. Gentile
44th 31.4% 64.5% David G. Greenfield
45th 84.2% 13.6% Jumaane Williams
46th 75.0% 22.8% Alan Maisel
47th 54.2% 43.0% Mark Treyger
48th 38.8% 58.1% Chaim Deutsch
49th 67.1% 29.6% Debi Rose
50th 34.9% 62.0% Steven Matteo
51st 25.5% 71.9% Joe Borelli
Treemap of the popular vote by county

By county

[edit]
County Hillary Clinton
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Albany 83,071 59.41% 47,808 34.19% 8,939 6.40% 35,263 25.22% 139,818
Allegany 4,882 26.12% 12,525 67.01% 1,285 6.87% -7,643 -40.89% 18,692
Bronx 353,646 88.52% 37,797 9.46% 8,079 2.02% 315,849 79.06% 399,522
Broome 39,212 45.56% 40,943 47.57% 5,917 6.87% -1,731 -2.01% 86,072
Cattaraugus 9,497 30.48% 19,692 63.19% 1,972 6.33% -10,195 -32.71% 31,161
Cayuga 13,522 40.76% 17,384 52.41% 2,266 6.83% -3,862 -11.65% 33,172
Chautauqua 19,091 35.20% 31,594 58.25% 3,549 6.55% -12,503 -23.05% 54,234
Chemung 13,757 38.09% 20,097 55.64% 2,265 6.27% -6,340 -17.55% 36,119
Chenango 6,775 33.61% 11,921 59.13% 1,464 7.26% -5,146 -25.52% 20,160
Clinton 15,059 46.91% 14,449 45.01% 2,597 8.08% 610 1.90% 32,105
Columbia 15,284 49.46% 13,756 44.51% 1,862 6.03% 1,528 4.95% 30,902
Cortland 8,771 43.33% 9,900 48.90% 1,573 7.77% -1,129 -5.57% 20,244
Delaware 6,627 33.48% 11,942 60.34% 1,223 6.18% -5,315 -26.86% 19,792
Dutchess 62,285 47.54% 61,821 47.19% 6,912 5.27% 464 0.35% 131,018
Erie 215,456 50.86% 188,303 44.45% 19,866 4.69% 27,153 6.41% 423,625
Essex 7,762 45.08% 7,958 46.22% 1,498 8.70% -196 -1.14% 17,218
Franklin 7,297 43.05% 8,221 48.50% 1,434 8.45% -924 -5.45% 16,952
Fulton 6,496 30.62% 13,462 63.46% 1,256 5.92% -6,966 -32.84% 21,214
Genesee 7,650 28.94% 16,915 63.99% 1,867 7.07% -9,265 -35.05% 26,432
Greene 7,405 33.58% 13,073 59.29% 1,572 7.13% -5,668 -25.71% 22,050
Hamilton 949 29.43% 2,064 64.00% 212 6.57% -1,115 -34.57% 3,225
Herkimer 8,083 30.79% 16,699 63.60% 1,473 5.61% -8,616 -32.81% 26,255
Jefferson 13,809 36.12% 21,763 56.92% 2,664 6.96% -7,954 -20.80% 38,236
Kings 640,553 79.51% 141,044 17.51% 24,008 2.98% 499,509 62.00% 805,605
Lewis 3,146 27.78% 7,400 65.34% 779 6.88% -4,254 -37.56% 11,325
Livingston 10,697 35.62% 17,290 57.57% 2,044 6.81% -6,593 -21.95% 30,031
Madison 11,667 38.81% 15,936 53.01% 2,461 8.18% -4,269 -14.20% 30,064
Monroe 188,592 54.23% 136,582 39.27% 22,616 6.50% 52,010 14.94% 347,790
Montgomery 6,595 34.61% 11,301 59.31% 1,158 6.08% -4,706 -24.70% 19,054
Nassau 332,154 51.33% 292,025 45.13% 22,943 3.54% 40,129 6.20% 647,122
New York 579,013 86.56% 64,930 9.71% 24,997 3.73% 514,083 76.85% 668,940
Niagara 35,559 38.48% 51,961 56.23% 4,882 5.29% -16,402 -17.75% 92,402
Oneida 33,743 37.08% 51,437 56.52% 5,829 6.40% -17,694 -19.44% 91,009
Onondaga 112,337 53.89% 83,649 40.13% 12,454 5.98% 28,688 13.76% 208,440
Ontario 22,233 42.33% 26,029 49.55% 4,265 8.12% -3,796 -7.22% 52,527
Orange 68,278 44.91% 76,645 50.42% 7,098 4.67% -8,367 -5.51% 152,021
Orleans 4,470 27.29% 10,936 66.76% 974 5.95% -6,466 -39.47% 16,380
Oswego 17,095 35.48% 27,688 57.47% 3,397 7.05% -10,593 -21.99% 48,180
Otsego 10,451 40.72% 13,308 51.85% 1,909 7.43% -2,857 -11.13% 25,668
Putnam 19,366 39.88% 27,024 55.65% 2,173 4.47% -7,658 -15.77% 48,563
Queens 517,220 75.35% 149,341 21.76% 19,832 2.89% 367,879 53.59% 686,393
Rensselaer 32,717 45.72% 33,726 47.13% 5,119 7.15% -1,009 -1.41% 71,562
Richmond 74,143 40.97% 101,437 56.05% 5,380 2.98% -27,294 -15.08% 180,960
Rockland 69,342 51.33% 60,911 45.09% 4,834 3.58% 8,431 6.24% 135,087
Saratoga 50,913 44.62% 54,575 47.83% 8,606 7.55% -3,662 -3.21% 114,094
Schenectady 33,747 50.16% 28,953 43.03% 4,580 6.81% 4,794 7.13% 67,280
Schoharie 4,240 30.18% 8,831 62.85% 979 6.97% -4,591 -32.67% 14,050
Schuyler 3,091 35.24% 5,050 57.57% 631 7.19% -1,959 -22.33% 8,772
Seneca 5,697 40.75% 7,236 51.76% 1,047 7.49% -1,539 -11.01% 13,980
St. Lawrence 16,488 42.11% 19,942 50.93% 2,728 6.96% -3,454 -8.82% 39,158
Steuben 12,526 29.82% 26,831 63.88% 2,645 6.30% -14,305 -34.06% 42,002
Suffolk 303,951 44.62% 350,570 51.46% 26,733 3.92% -46,619 -6.84% 681,254
Sullivan 12,568 41.96% 15,931 53.18% 1,456 4.86% -3,363 -11.22% 29,955
Tioga 7,526 33.75% 13,260 59.46% 1,513 6.79% -5,734 -25.71% 22,299
Tompkins 28,890 67.69% 10,371 24.30% 3,417 8.01% 18,519 43.39% 42,678
Ulster 44,597 52.29% 35,239 41.32% 5,454 6.39% 9,358 10.97% 85,290
Warren 13,091 41.68% 15,751 50.15% 2,566 8.17% -2,660 -8.47% 31,408
Washington 9,098 37.09% 13,610 55.49% 1,820 7.42% -4,512 -18.40% 24,528
Wayne 13,473 33.95% 23,380 58.91% 2,834 7.14% -9,907 -24.96% 39,687
Westchester 272,926 64.88% 131,238 31.20% 16,491 3.92% 141,688 33.68% 420,655
Wyoming 3,904 22.57% 12,442 71.93% 952 5.50% -8,538 -49.36% 17,298
Yates 3,659 36.35% 5,660 56.23% 747 7.42% -2,001 -19.88% 10,066
Totals 4,556,142 59.00% 2,819,557 36.51% 346,096 4.49% 1,736,585 22.49% 7,721,795
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[21]

By congressional district

[edit]

Clinton won 18 of 27 congressional districts. Both Trump and Clinton won a district held by the other party.[22]

District Clinton Trump Representative
1st 42% 54% Lee Zeldin
2nd 44% 53% Peter T. King
3rd 51% 45% Steve Israel
Thomas Suozzi
4th 53% 43% Kathleen Rice
5th 85% 13% Gregory Meeks
6th 65% 32% Grace Meng
7th 86% 10% Nydia Velázquez
8th 84% 13% Hakeem Jeffries
9th 83% 14% Yvette Clarke
10th 78% 19% Jerry Nadler
11th 44% 53% Dan Donovan
12th 82% 13% Carolyn Maloney
13th 92% 5% Charles B. Rangel
Adriano Espaillat
14th 77% 22% Joe Crowley
15th 94% 5% Jose Serrano
16th 75% 22% Eliot Engel
17th 58% 38% Nita Lowey
18th 47% 49% Sean Patrick Maloney
19th 44% 51% John Faso
20th 53% 40% Paul Tonko
21st 39% 53% Elise Stefanik
22nd 39% 54% Richard L. Hanna
Claudia Tenney
23rd 39% 54% Tom Reed
24th 49% 45% John Katko
25th 55% 39% Louise Slaughter
26th 58% 38% Brian Higgins
27th 35% 59% Chris Collins

Analysis

[edit]

Reflecting a strong nationwide trend of rural areas swinging hard against Clinton, Trump improved greatly upon recent Republican performances in rural Upstate New York. Upstate New York was historically a staunchly Republican region, although it had been trending Democratic since the 1990s, and Democrat Barack Obama had twice performed very strongly across both urban and rural upstate in the preceding two elections. Trump won 19 counties in New York State that voted for President Obama in 2012, 17 of which were rural upstate counties. Clinton did win Upstate New York's traditionally Democratic cities and hold onto the urban counties upstate. However, Trump also made gains in urban parts of upstate, which had long been in economic decline, due to his strength in economically distressed areas and his appeal to working-class whites who traditionally vote Democratic. Trump's message on trade policy and pledge to halt job outsourcing appealed strongly to the Rust Belt region of the United States, where many local economies had been ravaged by the loss of industrial jobs, which extends into Upstate New York cities like Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse.

In Erie County, where Buffalo is located in Western New York bordering the Great Lakes, Clinton won only 51-44 compared with Obama's 57–41 victory in 2012. Clinton suffered her strongest swings against her in traditionally Democratic Northern New York along the Saint Lawrence River.

The only upstate county where Clinton won by a stronger margin than Obama had in 2012 was the liberal Democratic stronghold of Tompkins County, home to the college town of Ithaca where Cornell University is located. Clinton and Obama both received 68% in the county, but Trump's unpopularity with young people and students led him to fall to only 24% of the vote compared with 28% for Romney. Hillary Clinton's landslide statewide win was powered by an overwhelmingly lopsided victory in the massively populated five boroughs of New York City, the largest city in the United States, despite Donald Trump's longtime popular cultural association with the city. In New York City, Hillary Clinton received 2,164,575 votes (79.0% of the vote) compared with only 494,549 votes (18.0% of the vote) for Donald Trump. This represented a slight fall from Barack Obama's historic 81.2% in the city in 2012, and the borough of Staten Island flipped from Obama to Trump. However, Trump's percentage was virtually unchanged from Romney's 17.8%. With huge victories in the other four boroughs, Clinton's 60.9% victory margin over Trump was a slight decrease from Obama's record 63.4% margin over Romney, making Clinton's win the second-widest victory margin for a presidential candidate in New York City history.

Trump's birthplace borough of Queens gave Clinton over 75% of the vote and less than 22% to Trump. In Manhattan, home to Trump Tower, Trump's famous landmark residence, Clinton received nearly 87% while Trump received less than 10% of the vote, the worst performance ever for a major party presidential candidate in Manhattan. This made Trump's home borough one of only 3 counties in the state where Trump did worse than Mitt Romney had in 2012, along with Westchester and Tompkins counties. In the populated suburbs around New York City, Hillary Clinton won overall, although, with the sole exception of her county of residence, there were strong swings against her compared with President Obama's performance. The downstate suburban counties around the city were historically Republican bastions, until Hillary's husband Bill Clinton made dramatic suburban gains for Democrats in the 1990s and easily swept every suburban New York county in his 1996 re-election campaign. North of the city, Clinton significantly further improved on Barack Obama's landslide margin in wealthy Westchester County, where the Clintons own their primary residence in Chappaqua, New York. Clinton won Westchester County 65-31 compared with Obama's 62–37 victory over Mitt Romney. Conversely, Trump made major gains on Long Island, as Clinton won Nassau County by only a slightly reduced 6-point margin rather than the 8-point margin by which Obama had won it, while Suffolk County saw an even bigger swing, going from a 4-point win for Obama to a 7-point win for Trump, the first Republican victory in the county since 1992.

While heavily Democratic New York City had secured consistent Democratic landslides in New York State for 3 decades, since 1992 every Democratic presidential candidate would have still carried New York State even without the massive Democratic vote margins provided by the 5 boroughs, albeit by substantially closer margins. In 2012, Obama won New York State outside of New York City with 54.03% of the vote compared with Mitt Romney's 44.54%. With Donald Trump having made major gains over Romney's performance across Upstate New York and improving overall in suburban downstate, Hillary Clinton was heavily dependent on New York City for her victory; her margin of 1,724,416 votes in the Five Boroughs accounted for almost all of her statewide majority. Clinton did manage to continue the Democratic winning streak in New York State outside of New York City, albeit just barely. Removing the 5 boroughs of New York City from the result, Clinton received 2,391,549 votes while Trump received 2,324,985 votes, meaning Clinton would have won New York State without the city by 66,564 votes, a margin of 1.4% out of all statewide votes cast outside of the city. However, when removing the ten counties in the state that are part of the New York metropolitan area (The Boroughs, Long Island, and Putnam, Rockland, and Westchester Counties), Trump became the only Republican to carry Upstate since George H. W. Bush did so in 1988, obtaining 1,463,217 votes in the state's other 52 counties compared to Clinton's 1,393,810 votes, a margin of 69,407 votes, though George W. Bush came within 8,056 votes of John Kerry in Upstate during the 2004 election. The 2016 United States Senate election in New York held on the same day turned notably different. While Clinton only carried 12 upstate counties, Chuck Schumer won all counties in New York state except 5 and captured over 70% of the vote.

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  2. ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results". U.S. Election Atlas. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  3. ^ Haberman, Maggie (October 31, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  4. ^ "The Green Papers Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions". The Green Papers. 2016. Retrieved January 27, 2016.
  5. ^ a b "Candidate Petition List". Elections.ny.gov. May 21, 2016. Archived from the original on May 12, 2012. Retrieved May 22, 2016.
  6. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  7. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  8. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  11. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New York: Trump vs. Clinton".
  15. ^ Mahoney, Bill. "How New York election law makes Gary Johnson more marginal". Subscriber.politicopro.com. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  16. ^ "Official Write-In Candidates for President" (PDF). Elections.ny.gov. Archived from the original (PDF) on October 25, 2016. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  17. ^ Wolfe, Jonathan (November 3, 2016). "New York Today: Our City's Other Presidential Candidates". Nytimes.com. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  18. ^ "NYS Board of Elections President and Vice-President Election Returns" (PDF). Elections.ny.gov. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 29, 2019. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  19. ^ "NYS Board of Elections President and Vice-President Election Returns" (PDF). Elections.ny.gov. November 8, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 21, 2021. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
  20. ^ "NYC City Council - 2013-2022 districts". DRA 2020 Daves Redistricting. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  21. ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  22. ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 19, 2018.
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