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2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia - Reading time: 26 min

For related races, see 2019 United States gubernatorial elections.
2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election
← 2015 November 5, 2019 2023 →
Turnout41.8% Increase 11.4 pp
 
Nominee Andy Beshear Matt Bevin
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Ralph Alvarado
Popular vote 709,890 704,754
Percentage 49.20% 48.84%
Beshear:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90%
Bevin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90%
Tie:      40-50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Matt Bevin
Republican

Elected Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic

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The 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky.[1] The Democratic nominee, Andy Beshear, defeated Republican Incumbent governor Matt Bevin. It was the closest gubernatorial election by votes since 1899. It was the closest race of the 2019 gubernatorial election cycle.

Beshear won by 0.37 percentage points, receiving 49.20% of the vote to Bevin's 48.83%.[2] Bevin won 97 counties, while Beshear won 23 counties.[3] Beshear also carried only two of the state's six congressional districts, but those districts were the state's two most urbanized, the Louisville-based 3rd and the Lexington-based 6th.[4]

Beshear won with overwhelming support in the major population hubs of Louisville and Lexington and their suburbs, as well as major vote swings in the Republican-leaning Cincinnati suburbs. Beshear was also aided by Bevin's lackluster performance in counties that had previously been swinging heavily towards Republicans, particularly the coal country of Eastern Kentucky, where Beshear won multiple counties that overwhelmingly voted Republican in 2016.[5] Voter turnout was high across the state compared to past Kentucky elections, with a statewide turnout of about 42%. Fayette County (Lexington) saw a 20% increase in voter turnout, and Beshear received over twice as many votes in the county than the 2015 Democratic nominee for governor, Jack Conway. Unusually high turnout was seen as a major factor in Beshear's win.[6]

Beshear's win coincided with Democratic momentum nationwide in elections in 2017, 2018, and 2019, following the election of Donald Trump in 2016.[7] However, Republicans won all other statewide offices in Kentucky, including the attorney general and secretary of state offices which Democrats had held going into the election.[8]

Bevin conceded on November 14,[9] after a recanvass took place that day[10][9][11] that did not change the vote count.[9] Libertarian John Hicks also qualified for the ballot and received 2% of the vote. Statewide turnout was just over 42%,[6] much higher than for the 2015 gubernatorial election.

Background

[edit]

Major-party primary elections occurred on May 21, 2019.[12] Incumbent Republican governor Matt Bevin was renominated by the Republican Party. Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 37.9% of the vote in a three-way contest, in which due to his father he had the greatest name recognition.[13][14][15][16]

Bevin announced on January 25, 2019, that he would run for a second term, choosing State Senator Ralph Alvarado as his running mate over incumbent lieutenant governor Jenean Hampton.[17] No Republican governor of Kentucky has ever been elected to more than one term, even after the state's constitutional prohibition of governors serving consecutive terms was repealed in 1992. The only Republican before Bevin to run for reelection, Ernie Fletcher, was defeated by Democrat Steve Beshear in 2007 (Steve Beshear is the father of Bevin's Democratic challenger, Andy). Bevin was the second Republican governor of Kentucky in the last 50 years. Andy Beshear was the first governor of Kentucky to be a direct relative of a former governor.

Beshear had the support of 2020 Senate candidate Amy McGrath, his father and former governor Steve Beshear, former governor Paul Patton, and representative and primary challenger Rocky Adkins, all well-known Democrats in the state. Bevin had the support of President Donald Trump, who remained relatively popular in the state, particularly in rural areas. Trump and US senator Rand Paul held a rally in support of Bevin and Republican Attorney General nominee Daniel Cameron the day before the election. Many considered the decisive factor in this election whether voters would vote based on local issues, as Bevin and his policies were deeply unpopular,[18] or as a referendum on Trump, with whom Bevin closely aligned. The former would be more favorable for Democrats, the latter for Republicans.

Bevin was the least popular governor in the United States, with a 33% approval rating in April 2019.[19][20][21]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Matt Bevin

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Bevin 		Robert
Goforth 		Ike
Lawrence 		William
Woods 		Undecided
Cygnal May 10–12, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 56% 18% 2% 1% 23%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Bevin
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Goforth
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Matt Bevin (incumbent) 136,060 52.4%
Republican Robert Goforth 101,343 39.0%
Republican William Woods 14,004 5.4%
Republican Ike Lawrence 8,447 3.3%
Total votes 259,854 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Rocky Adkins

Statewide officials

Andy Beshear

Statewide officials

Adam Edelen

Members of the Kentucky legislature

Current and Former Elected Officials

Media

Groups

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Rocky
Adkins 		Andy
Beshear 		Adam
Edelen 		Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[A] April 15–18, 2019 601 ± 4.0% 17% 44% 16% 23%
ALG Research (D) Archived 2019-04-18 at the Wayback Machine[B] April 11–15, 2019 500 – 22% 43% 23% –
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[A] February 4–7, 2019 603 ± 4.0% 17% 55% 7% 21%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Beshear
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Adkins
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Edelen
  •   30–40%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Beshear 149,438 37.9%
Democratic Rocky Adkins 125,970 31.9%
Democratic Adam Edelen 110,159 27.9%
Democratic Geoff Young 8,923 2.3%
Total votes 394,490 100.0%

Other candidates

[edit]

Libertarian Convention

[edit]

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky is currently recognized as a "political organization" under state law, a status that grants the party ballot access, but denies it a state-operated primary. Libertarian candidates were nominated at the party's nominating convention, held in March 2019.[56][57]

Nominated

  • John Hicks, IT consultant[58][56]
    • Running mate: Ann Cormican, factory worker[58][56]

Write-in

[edit]

Declared

General election

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2019
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Andy Beshear (D) $5,474,916 $5,471,092 $3,824
Matt Bevin (R) $5,263,345 $5,263,345 $0
Source: Kentucky Registry of Election Finance[61]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Tossup October 15, 2019
Inside Elections[63] Tossup November 8, 2019
Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] Lean R November 8, 2019

Debates

[edit]
Dates Location Bevin Beshear Hicks Link
July 17, 2019 Louisville Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate – Kentucky Farm Bureau
October 3, 2019 Paducah Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate – Courier-Journal
October 15, 2019 Lexington Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate – Courier-Journal
October 26, 2019 Louisville Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate – WLKY
October 29, 2019 Highland Heights Participant Participant Not Invited Full debate – WLWT

Endorsements

[edit]
Matt Bevin (R)

Federal politicians

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Andy Beshear (D)

Statewide officials

Local officials

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Bevin (R) 		Andy
Beshear (D) 		John
Hicks (L) 		Undecided
NBC News/Marist October 30 – November 3, 2019 564 (LV) ± 5.2% 47% 47% 2% 4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 2, 2019 1,117 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 47% 1% 0%
Targoz Market Research (D) October 13–20, 2019 401 (LV) ± 4.2% 36% 55% 4% 6%
Mason-Dixon October 10–13, 2019 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 1% 7%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[A] August 19–22, 2019 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 39% 48% 6% 7%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[C] August 12–13, 2019 792 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 48% 5% 4%
Gravis Marketing (R) June 11–12, 2019 741 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 42% – 10%
Lake Research Partners (D) June 4–11, 2019 500 (RV) ± 4% 36% 51% – –
Mason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 48% – 12%
Hypothetical polling
with Rocky Adkins
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Bevin (R) 		Rocky
Adkins (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 42% 17%
with Alison Lundergan Grimes
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Bevin (R) 		Alison Lundergan
Grimes (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon December 12–15, 2018 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
with generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Bevin (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[D] May 6–7, 2019 676 ± 3.8% 39% 49% 11%

Results

[edit]
Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2019[108][109]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Andy Beshear 709,890 49.20% +5.38%
Republican Matt Bevin (incumbent) 704,754 48.84% −3.68%
Libertarian John Hicks 28,433 1.97% N/A
Write-in 46 0.00% N/A
Total votes 1,443,123 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Beshear won despite carrying only two of the state's six congressional districts. He defeated Bevin in the 3rd and 6th districts, which encompass Kentucky's two urban centers, Louisville and Lexington, and their close-in suburbs. Bevin won the state's other urbanized district, the Northern Kentucky-based 4th, and he won handily in the more rural 1st, 2nd, and 5th districts.[110]

District PVI Andy
Beshear 		Matt
Bevin 		John
Hicks 		Incumbent
Representative
1st R+23 38.67% 59.34% 1.99% James Comer
2nd R+19 43.99% 53.84% 2.17% Brett Guthrie
3rd D+6 67.74% 30.75% 1.50% John Yarmuth
4th R+18 45.43% 52.39% 2.18% Thomas Massie
5th R+31 37.33% 60.45% 2.22% Hal Rogers
6th R+9 55.88% 42.25% 1.87% Andy Barr

By county

[edit]
County Andy Beshear Matt Bevin John Hicks Write-in Margin Total
votes
% # % # % # % # % #
Adair 28.65% 1,626 69.53% 3,946 1.74% 99 0.07% 4 -40.88% -2,320 5,675
Allen 31.06% 1,649 67.13% 3,564 1.81% 96 0.00% 0 -36.07% -1,915 5,309
Anderson 41.50% 3,978 56.12% 5,380 2.37% 227 0.00% 0 -14.62% -1,402 9,585
Ballard 32.90% 1,012 65.34% 2,010 1.76% 54 0.00% 0 -32.44% -998 3,076
Barren 39.91% 5,280 58.15% 7,693 1.94% 256 0.00% 0 -18.24% -2,413 13,229
Bath 51.98% 1,886 46.09% 1,672 1.93% 70 0.00% 0 5.89% 214 3,628
Bell 36.54% 2,013 61.68% 3,398 1.78% 98 0.00% 0 -25.14% -1,385 5,509
Boone 41.42% 16,947 56.21% 23,000 2.37% 970 0.00% 1 -14.79% -6,053 40,918
Bourbon 48.10% 3,323 50.12% 3,463 1.78% 123 0.00% 0 -2.02% -140 6,909
Boyd 51.76% 6,989 45.79% 6,182 2.45% 331 0.00% 0 5.97% 807 13,502
Boyle 49.03% 5,099 49.07% 5,103 1.90% 198 0.00% 0 -0.04% -4 10,400
Bracken 41.98% 1,063 53.99% 1,367 4.03% 102 0.00% 0 -12.01% -304 2,532
Breathitt 50.21% 1,889 48.38% 1,820 1.41% 53 0.00% 0 1.83% 69 3,762
Breckinridge 40.53% 2,775 56.92% 3,897 2.56% 175 0.00% 0 -16.39% -1,122 6,847
Bullitt 42.56% 11,275 54.80% 14,517 2.64% 700 0.00% 1 -12.24% -3,242 26,493
Butler 29.99% 1,134 68.08% 2,574 1.93% 73 0.00% 0 -38.09% -1,440 3,781
Caldwell 34.12% 1,510 64.25% 2,843 1.63% 72 0.00% 0 -30.13% -1,333 4,425
Calloway 43.90% 5,160 53.97% 6,344 2.14% 251 0.00% 0 -10.07% -1,184 11,755
Campbell 51.78% 16,352 46.20% 14,587 2.02% 638 0.00% 0 5.58% 1,765 31,577
Carlisle 27.93% 529 70.27% 1,331 1.80% 34 0.00% 0 -42.34% -802 1,894
Carroll 45.14% 1,184 52.38% 1,374 2.48% 65 0.00% 0 -7.24% -190 2,623
Carter 50.43% 3,732 46.51% 3,442 3.07% 227 0.00% 0 3.92% 290 7,401
Casey 25.14% 1,208 73.47% 3,530 1.37% 66 0.02% 1 -48.33% -2,322 4,805
Christian 42.14% 6,023 55.79% 7,974 2.07% 296 0.00% 0 -13.65% -1,951 14,293
Clark 45.58% 5,876 52.57% 6,777 1.85% 238 0.00% 0 -6.99% -901 12,891
Clay 28.10% 1,298 69.82% 3,225 2.08% 96 0.00% 0 -41.72% -1,927 4,619
Clinton 24.86% 692 73.53% 2,047 1.62% 45 0.00% 0 -48.67% -1,355 2,784
Crittenden 30.96% 916 66.81% 1,977 2.23% 66 0.00% 0 -35.85% -1,061 2,959
Cumberland 25.74% 503 72.57% 1,418 1.69% 33 0.00% 0 -46.83% -915 1,954
Daviess 47.02% 16,012 50.62% 17,238 2.36% 805 0.00% 0 -3.60% -1,226 34,055
Edmonson 37.12% 1,383 61.30% 2,284 1.58% 59 0.00% 0 -24.18% -901 3,726
Elliott 59.27% 1,148 38.56% 747 2.17% 42 0.00% 0 20.71% 401 1,937
Estill 39.10% 1,617 58.68% 2,427 2.20% 91 0.02% 1 -19.58% -810 4,136
Fayette 65.51% 73,397 32.95% 36,915 1.53% 1,719 0.00% 4 32.56% 36,482 112,035
Fleming 38.40% 1,807 59.88% 2,818 1.72% 81 0.00% 0 -21.48% -1,011 4,706
Floyd 52.56% 5,903 44.95% 5,048 2.48% 279 0.00% 0 7.61% 855 11,230
Franklin 61.51% 12,888 36.13% 7,570 2.53% 493 0.00% 0 25.38% 5,318 21,230
Fulton 40.23% 589 58.54% 857 1.23% 18 0.00% 0 -18.31% -268 1,464
Gallatin 39.99% 871 56.84% 1,238 3.17% 69 0.00% 0 -16.85% -367 2,178
Garrard 34.56% 2,004 63.39% 3,676 2.05% 119 0.00% 0 -28.83% -1,672 5,799
Grant 35.19% 2,261 62.41% 4,010 2.40% 154 0.00% 0 -27.22% -1,749 6,425
Graves 32.90% 4,214 64.64% 8,278 2.46% 315 0.00% 0 -31.74% -4,064 12,807
Grayson 32.20% 2,621 65.34% 5,319 2.47% 201 0.00% 0 -33.14% -2,698 8,141
Green 26.19% 997 72.05% 2,743 1.76% 67 0.00% 0 -45.86% -1,746 3,807
Greenup 45.29% 5,102 52.41% 5,905 2.30% 259 0.00% 0 -7.12% -803 11,266
Hancock 51.75% 1,891 45.16% 1,650 3.09% 113 0.00% 0 6.59% 241 3,654
Hardin 46.47% 14,524 51.25% 16,018 2.27% 710 0.00% 0 -4.78% -1,494 31,252
Harlan 28.85% 1,867 69.05% 4,468 2.10% 136 0.00% 0 -40.20% -2,601 6,471
Harrison 42.91% 2,535 55.06% 3,253 2.03% 120 0.00% 0 -12.15% -718 5,908
Hart 37.99% 1,997 59.80% 3,143 2.21% 116 0.00% 0 -21.81% -1,146 5,256
Henderson 51.25% 6,863 47.07% 6,303 1.68% 225 0.00% 0 4.18% 560 13,391
Henry 42.23% 2,325 55.77% 3,070 2.00% 110 0.00% 0 -13.54% -745 5,505
Hickman 30.01% 469 68.59% 1,072 1.41% 22 0.00% 0 -38.58% -603 1,563
Hopkins 39.23% 5,411 58.56% 8,077 2.20% 304 0.00% 0 -19.33% -2,666 13,792
Jackson 18.50% 749 79.38% 3,214 2.12% 86 0.00% 0 -60.88% -2,465 4,049
Jefferson 66.99% 186,561 31.51% 87,740 1.50% 4,171 0.00% 7 35.48% 98,821 278,479
Jessamine 43.04% 8,102 55.05% 10,363 1.91% 360 0.01% 1 -12.01% -2,261 18,826
Johnson 35.53% 2,304 61.51% 3,988 2.96% 192 0.00% 0 -25.98% -1,684 6,484
Kenton 49.48% 25,479 48.42% 24,936 2.10% 1,082 0.00% 1 1.06% 543 51,498
Knott 49.38% 2,096 48.34% 2,052 2.17% 92 0.12% 5 1.04% 44 4,245
Knox 32.52% 2,658 65.41% 5,346 2.07% 169 0.00% 0 -32.89% -2,688 8,173
Larue 37.11% 1,744 60.32% 2,835 2.57% 121 0.00% 0 -23.21% -1,091 4,700
Laurel 26.55% 4,722 71.22% 12,667 2.23% 397 0.00% 0 -44.67% -7,945 17,786
Lawrence 37.85% 1,515 60.38% 2,417 1.77% 71 0.00% 0 -22.53% -902 4,003
Lee 33.04% 675 64.66% 1,321 2.30% 47 0.00% 0 -31.62% -646 2,043
Leslie 22.51% 680 75.79% 2,289 2.37% 51 0.00% 0 -53.28% -1,609 3,020
Letcher 44.85% 2,626 52.76% 3,089 2.37% 139 0.02% 1 -7.91% -463 5,855
Lewis 27.28% 948 69.76% 2,424 2.96% 103 0.00% 0 -42.48% -1,476 3,475
Lincoln 35.82% 2,558 62.03% 4,430 2.16% 154 0.00% 0 -26.21% -1,872 7,142
Livingston 36.03% 1,205 62.32% 2,084 1.64% 55 0.00% 0 -26.29% -879 3,344
Logan 38.29% 2,911 59.52% 4,525 2.18% 166 0.00% 0 -21.23% -1,614 7,602
Lyon 40.75% 1,253 57.85% 1,779 1.40% 43 0.00% 0 -17.10% -526 3,075
Madison 48.96% 15,017 48.72% 14,943 2.30% 705 0.03% 8 0.24% 74 30,673
Magoffin 53.57% 1,968 44.34% 1,629 2.10% 77 0.00% 0 9.23% 339 3,674
Marion 52.05% 3,155 45.98% 2,787 1.96% 119 0.00% 0 6.07% 368 6,061
Marshall 38.21% 4,834 59.49% 7,526 2.29% 290 0.00% 0 -21.28% -2,692 12,650
Martin 25.12% 554 72.38% 1,596 2.49% 55 0.00% 0 -47.26% -1,042 2,205
Mason 44.25% 2,246 53.57% 2,719 2.19% 111 0.00% 0 -9.32% -473 5,076
McCracken 41.60% 9,695 56.87% 13,252 1.52% 355 0.00% 1 -15.27% -3,557 23,303
McCreary 28.82% 1,340 68.42% 3,181 2.71% 126 0.04% 2 -39.60% -1,841 4,649
McLean 38.02% 1,357 59.32% 2,117 2.66% 95 0.00% 0 -21.30% -760 3,569
Meade 44.18% 3,984 53.09% 4,787 2.73% 246 0.00% 0 -8.91% -803 9,017
Menifee 45.32% 959 52.60% 1,113 2.08% 44 0.00% 0 -7.28% -154 2,116
Mercer 42.10% 3,541 56.09% 4,718 1.81% 152 0.00% 0 -13.99% -1,177 8,411
Metcalfe 38.73% 1,495 58.65% 2,264 2.62% 101 0.00% 0 -19.92% -769 3,860
Monroe 24.76% 837 73.43% 2,482 1.80% 61 0.00% 0 -48.67% -1,645 3,380
Montgomery 44.59% 3,934 53.78% 4,745 1.63% 144 0.00% 0 -9.19% -811 8,823
Morgan 46.01% 1,726 51.43% 1,929 2.56% 96 0.00% 0 -5.42% -203 3,751
Muhlenberg 46.03% 4,019 52.12% 4,551 1.83% 160 0.02% 2 -6.09% -532 8,732
Nelson 48.51% 7,387 49.32% 7,511 2.17% 331 0.00% 0 -0.81% -124 15,229
Nicholas 49.49% 1,157 48.50% 1,134 2.01% 47 0.00% 0 0.99% 23 2,338
Ohio 40.29% 2,877 56.57% 4,040 3.14% 224 0.00% 0 -16.28% -1,163 7,141
Oldham 46.32% 12,115 51.57% 13,488 2.11% 551 0.00% 0 -5.25% -1,373 26,154
Owen 38.54% 1,419 59.61% 2,195 1.85% 68 0.00% 0 -21.07% -776 3,682
Owsley 29.43% 402 68.23% 932 2.34% 32 0.00% 0 -38.80% -530 1,366
Pendleton 36.27% 1,502 61.51% 2,547 2.22% 92 0.00% 0 -25.24% -1,045 4,141
Perry 44.51% 3,183 53.90% 3,855 1.59% 114 0.00% 0 -9.39% -672 7,152
Pike 42.93% 7,131 54.25% 9,011 2.81% 466 0.01% 1 -11.32% -1,880 16,609
Powell 46.33% 1,791 51.66% 1,997 2.02% 78 0.00% 0 -5.33% -206 3,866
Pulaski 27.96% 5,891 70.04% 14,756 1.99% 419 0.00% 1 -42.08% -8,865 21,067
Robertson 42.15% 325 55.77% 430 2.08% 16 0.00% 0 -13.62% -105 771
Rockcastle 27.42% 1,354 70.49% 3,481 2.07% 102 0.02% 1 -43.07% -2,127 4,938
Rowan 58.47% 4,045 39.66% 2,744 1.86% 129 0.00% 0 18.81% 1,301 6,918
Russell 26.50% 1,571 71.73% 4,252 1.77% 105 0.00% 0 -45.23% -2,681 5,928
Scott 49.10% 9,827 48.61% 9,730 2.29% 458 0.00% 0 0.49% 97 20,015
Shelby 43.96% 7,380 53.98% 9,062 2.04% 343 0.01% 2 -10.02% -1,682 16,787
Simpson 46.48% 2,203 51.84% 2,457 1.69% 80 0.00% 0 -5.36% -254 4,740
Spencer 35.59% 2,667 62.24% 4,664 2.15% 161 0.01% 1 -26.65% -1,997 7,493
Taylor 36.87% 3,093 61.31% 5,143 1.82% 153 0.00% 0 -24.44% -2,050 8,389
Todd 36.64% 1,037 60.53% 1,713 2.83% 80 0.00% 0 -23.89% -676 2,830
Trigg 35.69% 1,622 62.46% 2,839 1.85% 84 0.00% 0 -26.77% -1,217 4,545
Trimble 39.06% 1,057 58.39% 1,580 2.55% 69 0.00% 0 -19.33% -523 2,706
Union 41.09% 1,800 56.68% 2,483 2.24% 98 0.00% 0 -15.59% -683 4,381
Warren 50.80% 18,249 47.65% 17,118 1.55% 558 0.00% 0 3.15% 1,131 35,925
Washington 41.26% 1,839 56.59% 2,522 2.15% 96 0.00% 0 -15.33% -683 4,457
Wayne 35.76% 1,983 62.61% 3,472 1.62% 90 0.00% 0 -26.85% -1,489 5,545
Webster 38.77% 1,495 58.90% 2,271 2.33% 90 0.00% 0 -20.13% -776 3,856
Whitley 30.30% 2,995 67.50% 6,672 2.21% 218 0.00% 0 -37.20% -3,677 9,885
Wolfe 54.50% 1,194 43.72% 958 1.78% 39 0.00% 0 10.78% 236 2,191
Woodford 53.11% 6,235 44.95% 5,277 1.93% 227 0.00% 0 8.16% 958 11,739
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

[edit]

Losing by a margin of less than 0.4 percentage points, Bevin did not immediately concede and requested a recanvass, or review of counted votes,[111] which was held on November 14.[112][113] According to the Kentucky state constitution, the swearing in of a Kentucky governor must be held on the fifth Tuesday following the election (December 10).[114][115] While a recount law does exist in Kentucky, it does not permit recounts for gubernatorial elections.[116] Should a candidate contest the election results, the state legislature would determine the winner after hearing a report from a randomly selected 11-member committee from the House (8) and Senate (3).[116] This process, which is enforced through the Goebel Election Law, has only been used once, during the 1899 Kentucky gubernatorial election.[117][118] Kentucky Senate President Robert Stivers and some other Republican members of the Kentucky state legislature expressed skepticism of Bevin's voter fraud claims and on November 7 urged Bevin to concede if the recanvass did not go in his favor.[119][120] On November 11, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, announced that "all indications are" Beshear would be the next governor.[121] The recanvass did not result in any changes in the vote totals for either Beshear or Bevin, but found an additional vote for write-in candidate Blackii Effing Whyte.[9]

Bevin carried 97 of Kentucky's 120 counties. However, Beshear swamped Bevin in urban areas. Beshear carried the state's two largest counties, Jefferson and Fayette–home to Louisville and Lexington, respectively–with over 60 percent of the vote. He also narrowly carried two of the three counties that make up the traditionally conservative Cincinnati suburbs, Kenton and Campbell.[122]

Recanvassing

[edit]

Beshear declared victory after the initial vote count,[123] selecting J. Michael Brown to lead his transition team.[124] Bevin refused to concede and requested a recanvassing of the vote, which took place on November 14.[11] A recanvassing is a reprint of the voting receipts from each voting machine and is done to make sure county officials recorded vote totals correctly. It is not a recount, which the Kentucky State Constitution does not permit for gubernatorial races. The recanvass resulted in only one change, an additional vote for Independent candidate Blackii Effing Whyte, and Bevin conceded that day.[9]

With the recanvass producing no change in his vote total, Bevin conceded the race on November 14. Beshear was sworn in as governor on December 10, 2019.[125]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Andy Beshear campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Adam Edelen campaign
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Democratic Attorney General Association
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by End Citizens United

References

[edit]
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