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2020 United States presidential election in Idaho
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| Elections in Idaho |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Idaho was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Idaho voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Idaho has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
Trump easily carried Idaho on Election Day, winning 63.9% of the vote to Biden's 33.1%. Trump's percentage was higher than the 59.2% he received in 2016 due to the lack of third-party voters (namely Evan McMullin of neighboring Utah), but his margin of victory slightly declined, shrinking from 31.8% in 2016 to 30.8% in 2020.
Prior to the election, all news organizations expected Trump to win the state handily. Idaho is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the nation, and has not backed a Democrat for President since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson very narrowly carried the state amidst a national landslide.
Trump carried 41 of the state's 44 counties. Biden won Blaine County, home to Sun Valley and several other prime ski resorts; Latah County, home to the college town of Moscow; and flipped Teton County (which had not been won by the Democratic Party since Barack Obama won it in 2008), adjacent to Teton County, Wyoming. Although he did not carry the state's most populous county, Ada County, home to the rapidly growing state capital Boise, which no Democrat has carried since Franklin D. Roosevelt's 1936 landslide, Biden slightly improved on Barack Obama's 2008 result and lost Ada by less than four points. Biden's result of 46.4% and his margin of loss in the county were the highest and lowest for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1940, when Roosevelt won 49% of the county's vote, consequently losing by less than two points.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Idaho came from white voters, especially those in rural areas, who comprised 91% of the electorate and backed Trump by 64%–32%. Trump also received strong support from Caucasian Protestants, who backed him with 71% of their vote.[4]
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by five candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, entrepreneur and investor Bob Ely of Massachusetts, entrepreneur and attorney Matthew Matern of Louisiana, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Walsh withdrew from the race prior to the primary.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 112,373 | 94.46% | 32 |
| Bill Weld | 2,486 | 2.09% | 0 |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 2,341 | 1.97% | 0 |
| Matthew Matern | 647 | 0.54% | 0 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 637 | 0.54% | 0 |
| Bob Ely | 474 | 0.40% | 0 |
| Total | 118,311 | 100% | 32 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Tulsi Gabbard were the major declared candidates.[7][8][9]
.svg)
Biden—40–50%
Biden—50–60%
Biden—60–70%
Sanders—40–50%
Sanders—50–60%
Tie—30–40%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[11] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 53,151 | 48.92 | 12 |
| Bernie Sanders | 46,114 | 42.44 | 8 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] | 2,878 | 2.65 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[a] | 2,612 | 2.40 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] | 1,426 | 1.31 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 876 | 0.81 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] | 774 | 0.71 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 310 | 0.29 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] | 112 | 0.10 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 91 | 0.08 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 65 | 0.06 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 57 | 0.05 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 55 | 0.05 | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 49 | 0.05 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 19 | 0.02 | |
| Other candidates | 60 | 0.06 | |
| Total | 108,649 | 100% | 20 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[13] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[15] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[16] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[17] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[18] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[19] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[20] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[21] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[22] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[23] | Likely R | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[24] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[25] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FiveThirtyEight[26] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 38.5% | 56.6% | 4.9% | Trump +18.1 |
Polls
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 909 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 58%[e] | 40% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 1,799 (LV) | – | 58% | 40% | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 761 (LV) | – | 64% | 35% | - | – | 1% |
| Spry Strategies/Women's Liberation Front[28] | Aug 29 – Sep 1, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 60% | 34% | - | – | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 737 (LV) | – | 58% | 40% | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 671 (LV) | – | 63% | 35% | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[27] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 266 (LV) | – | 58% | 41% | - | – | 1% |
Electoral slates
[edit]These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[29]
| Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party |
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
Kanye West and Michelle Tidball Independent |
Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard Independent |
Don Blankenship and William Mohr Constitution Party |
Rocky De La Fuente and Darcy Richardson Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Beck Raul Labrador Janice McGeachin Melinda Smyser |
Cherie Buckner-Webb Maryanne Jordan Elaine Smith Mary Lou Reed |
Elizabeth Clark Dan Karlan Aaron Mason Cathy Smith |
Ryan Andrew Fauvell Julia Hurst Adriel Martinez Megan Shoemaker |
Zachary Todd Hanna Terrel Hill Christopher Kreighbaum Ryan Lyden |
Brendan Gomez David Hartigan Tony Ullrich Ray Writz |
Nick Carannante Tim Guy Shawn Satterthwaite Daryl Yandell |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump (incumbent) Mike Pence (incumbent) |
554,119 | 63.84% | +4.58 | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
287,021 | 33.07% | +5.60 | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
16,404 | 1.89% | −2.21 | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
3,632 | 0.42% | +0.42 | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
2,808 | 0.32% | +0.32 | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
1,806 | 0.22% | −0.12 | |
| Independent | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
1,491 | 0.17% | −0.03 | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins (write-in) Angela Walker (write-in) |
407 | 0.05% | −1.17 | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll (write-in) Amar Patel (write-in) |
163 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva (write-in) Sunil Freeman (write-in) |
49 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Jade Simmons (write-in) Claudeliah Roze (write-in) |
21 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent | Other (write-in) |
13 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 867,934 | 100.00% | |||
By county
[edit]| County[32] | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Ada | 130,699 | 49.98% | 120,539 | 46.10% | 10,250 | 3.92% | 10,160 | 3.88% | 261,488 |
| Adams | 1,941 | 75.06% | 591 | 22.85% | 54 | 2.09% | 1,350 | 52.21% | 2,586 |
| Bannock | 23,331 | 58.65% | 14,682 | 36.91% | 1,770 | 4.44% | 8,649 | 21.74% | 39,783 |
| Bear Lake | 2,914 | 87.88% | 350 | 10.55% | 52 | 1.57% | 2,564 | 77.33% | 3,316 |
| Benewah | 3,878 | 77.95% | 977 | 19.64% | 120 | 2.41% | 2,901 | 58.31% | 4,975 |
| Bingham | 15,295 | 76.49% | 4,124 | 20.62% | 577 | 2.89% | 11,171 | 55.87% | 19,996 |
| Blaine | 4,032 | 30.32% | 8,919 | 67.08% | 346 | 2.60% | -4,887 | -36.78% | 13,297 |
| Boise | 3,485 | 72.27% | 1,204 | 24.97% | 133 | 2.76% | 2,281 | 47.30% | 4,822 |
| Bonner | 18,369 | 67.16% | 8,310 | 30.38% | 673 | 2.46% | 10,059 | 36.78% | 27,352 |
| Bonneville | 37,805 | 69.97% | 14,254 | 26.38% | 1,975 | 3.65% | 23,551 | 43.59% | 54,034 |
| Boundary | 4,937 | 78.15% | 1,220 | 19.31% | 160 | 2.54% | 3,717 | 58.84% | 6,317 |
| Butte | 1,202 | 84.95% | 188 | 13.29% | 25 | 1.76% | 1,014 | 71.66% | 1,415 |
| Camas | 507 | 75.22% | 149 | 22.11% | 18 | 2.67% | 358 | 53.11% | 674 |
| Canyon | 61,759 | 68.27% | 25,881 | 28.61% | 2,817 | 3.12% | 35,878 | 39.66% | 90,457 |
| Caribou | 2,906 | 85.07% | 431 | 12.62% | 79 | 2.31% | 2,475 | 72.45% | 3,416 |
| Cassia | 7,907 | 82.09% | 1,464 | 15.20% | 261 | 2.71% | 6,443 | 66.89% | 9,632 |
| Clark | 264 | 84.89% | 41 | 13.18% | 6 | 1.93% | 223 | 71.71% | 311 |
| Clearwater | 3,453 | 78.14% | 877 | 19.85% | 89 | 2.01% | 2,576 | 58.29% | 4,419 |
| Custer | 2,089 | 76.27% | 603 | 22.02% | 47 | 1.71% | 1,486 | 54.25% | 2,739 |
| Elmore | 7,246 | 70.95% | 2,601 | 25.47% | 366 | 3.58% | 4,645 | 45.48% | 10,213 |
| Franklin | 5,845 | 87.71% | 657 | 9.86% | 162 | 2.43% | 5,188 | 77.85% | 6,664 |
| Fremont | 5,548 | 82.55% | 998 | 14.85% | 175 | 2.60% | 4,550 | 67.70% | 6,721 |
| Gem | 7,951 | 79.65% | 1,803 | 18.06% | 229 | 2.29% | 6,148 | 61.59% | 9,983 |
| Gooding | 4,659 | 76.98% | 1,256 | 20.75% | 137 | 2.27% | 3,403 | 56.23% | 6,052 |
| Idaho | 7,826 | 81.44% | 1,561 | 16.24% | 223 | 2.32% | 6,265 | 65.20% | 9,610 |
| Jefferson | 12,099 | 85.32% | 1,661 | 11.71% | 420 | 2.97% | 10,438 | 73.61% | 14,180 |
| Jerome | 5,734 | 73.14% | 1,893 | 24.15% | 213 | 2.71% | 3,841 | 48.99% | 7,840 |
| Kootenai | 62,837 | 69.91% | 24,312 | 27.05% | 2,729 | 3.04% | 38,525 | 42.86% | 89,878 |
| Latah | 9,472 | 45.96% | 10,236 | 49.67% | 902 | 4.37% | -764 | -3.61% | 20,610 |
| Lemhi | 3,592 | 75.80% | 1,032 | 21.78% | 115 | 2.42% | 2,560 | 54.02% | 4,739 |
| Lewis | 1,489 | 79.63% | 349 | 18.66% | 32 | 1.71% | 1,140 | 60.97% | 1,870 |
| Lincoln | 1,469 | 75.68% | 414 | 21.33% | 58 | 2.99% | 1,055 | 54.35% | 1,941 |
| Madison | 13,559 | 79.12% | 2,666 | 15.56% | 912 | 5.32% | 10,893 | 63.56% | 17,137 |
| Minidoka | 6,265 | 78.38% | 1,550 | 19.39% | 178 | 2.23% | 4,715 | 58.99% | 7,993 |
| Nez Perce | 13,738 | 65.47% | 6,686 | 31.86% | 561 | 2.67% | 7,052 | 33.61% | 20,985 |
| Oneida | 2,148 | 87.60% | 249 | 10.15% | 55 | 2.25% | 1,899 | 77.45% | 2,452 |
| Owyhee | 3,819 | 80.52% | 816 | 17.20% | 108 | 2.28% | 3,003 | 63.32% | 4,743 |
| Payette | 8,862 | 78.47% | 2,161 | 19.14% | 270 | 2.39% | 6,701 | 59.33% | 11,293 |
| Power | 2,116 | 68.57% | 865 | 28.03% | 105 | 3.40% | 1,251 | 40.54% | 3,086 |
| Shoshone | 4,216 | 69.70% | 1,693 | 27.99% | 140 | 2.31% | 2,523 | 41.71% | 6,049 |
| Teton | 2,858 | 44.92% | 3,318 | 52.15% | 186 | 2.93% | -460 | -7.23% | 6,362 |
| Twin Falls | 25,897 | 70.93% | 9,391 | 25.72% | 1,224 | 3.35% | 16,506 | 45.21% | 36,512 |
| Valley | 3,947 | 55.88% | 2,976 | 42.14% | 140 | 1.98% | 971 | 13.74% | 7,063 |
| Washington | 4,154 | 77.70% | 1,073 | 20.07% | 119 | 2.23% | 3,081 | 57.63% | 5,346 |
| Totals | 554,119 | 63.67% | 287,021 | 32.98% | 29,211 | 3.25% | 267,098 | 30.69% | 870,351 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won both congressional districts.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67.1% | 30.1% | Russ Fulcher |
| 2nd | 60.1% | 36.6% | Mike Simpson |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Idaho
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 Idaho elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b Candidate withdrew during early voting following Super Tuesday.
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during early voting before Super Tuesday.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
References
[edit]- ^ "2020 General Election". State of Idaho Elections Department. Retrieved November 27, 2020.
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Idaho Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Official Election Results". Secretary of State of Idaho. June 2, 2020. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
- ^ "Idaho Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
- ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Primary – OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS". Idaho Elections Department. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Idaho Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Idaho : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ "Spry Strategies/Women's Liberation Front" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 27, 2020.
- ^ "Idaho Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). State of Idaho. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 General Election Candidate List". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
- ^ "2020 General Election Results". Idaho Secretary of State. Retrieved December 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 General Election Results – Statistics – Idaho Secretary of State".
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Idaho
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Idaho", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Idaho: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Idaho". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Idaho at Ballotpedia
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