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2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota

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Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout79.96% (of eligible voters) [1] Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,717,077 1,484,065
Percentage 52.40% 45.28%
President before election

Donald J. Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic (DFL)

Elections in Minnesota
General elections
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Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
State Auditor elections
Attorney General elections
State legislative elections
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Ballot questions
2012
Minneapolis
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Saint Paul
Mayoral elections

The 2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[3] Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence against the DFL nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Minnesota has ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

Prior to the election, 15 out of 16 news organizations predicting the election projected Minnesota as leaning towards Biden. Biden ultimately carried the state by a 7.12% margin, significantly improving over Hillary Clinton's narrow 1.52% margin in 2016. Biden's win marked the twelfth consecutive Democratic presidential win in the state, which has not voted for a Republican for president since 1972.

Biden flipped four counties Trump carried in 2016: Clay, Nicollet, Blue Earth, and Winona, all of which were won by Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. The key to Biden's success was his strong performance in the Twin Cities metropolitan area,[5] where he outperformed both Obama and Clinton. His vote share in Hennepin County, home of Minneapolis, was the highest of any presidential nominee since Republican Theodore Roosevelt in 1904. He also improved on Clinton's performance in the Iron Range,[6] although his performance in the region was still well below what Democrats had historically earned between the New Deal realignment and the 2016 election. In addition, Biden managed to flip Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, based in the Twin Cities' southern suburbs and exurbs, from Trump.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden carried 51% of White Minnesotans, as well as 58% of college educated voters and 55% of voters from union households.[7] Trump's strength was concentrated in rural areas, while Biden performed better in urban and suburban areas.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Koochiching or Mahnomen Counties since those counties were formed in 1906; the first Democrat to win without Traverse County since Grover Cleveland in 1892; the first to win without Kittson, Norman, Itasca, or Beltrami Counties since Woodrow Wilson in 1912; the first to win without Swift County since Wilson in 1916; the first to win without Lac qui Parle County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944; the first to win without Chippewa, Freeborn, Mower, or Rice Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960 and the first to win without Fillmore County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This is the first time since 1964 in which Minnesota voted more Republican than New Hampshire.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Further information: 2020 Minnesota Republican presidential primary

The Republican primary took place on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

2020 Minnesota Republican presidential primary[8][9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 137,275 97.7 39
Bill Weld (write-in) 443 0.3 0
Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) 16 0.0 0
Other write-ins 2,821 2.0 0
Total 140,555 100.0 39 (of 39)

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information: 2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and former Vice President Joe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[10] Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota since 2007, expressed interest in running, and formally declared her candidacy in February 2019,[11][12][13] but then withdrew prior to Minnesota's race.

Biden won the most delegates.[14]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary § MNresults.[edit]
county
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Klobuchar—<30%
  Klobuchar—30–40%
  Klobuchar—40–50%
congressional district
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Sanders—30–40%
2020 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary[15]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[16]
Joe Biden 287,553 38.64 38
Bernie Sanders 222,431 29.89 27
Elizabeth Warren 114,674 15.41 10
Michael Bloomberg 61,882 8.32
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 41,530 5.58
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 7,616 1.02
Tulsi Gabbard 2,504 0.34
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] 1,749 0.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 551 0.07
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[b] 315 0.04
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 226 0.03
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 197 0.03
John Delaney (withdrawn)[c] 172 0.02
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 114 0.02
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[d] 72 0.01
Uncommitted 2,612 0.35
Total 744,198 100% 75

Libertarian caucuses

[edit]
Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
2020 Minnesota Libertarian presidential caucuses
← 2016 February 25, 2020 2024 →
← IA
CA →
 
Candidate Jacob Hornberger Jo Jorgensen Vermin Supreme
Home state Virginia South Carolina Massachusetts
First vote 37
(38.1%) 		12
(12.4%) 		11
(11.3%)
Final vote 47
(59.5%) 		32
(40.5%) 		Eliminated
 
Candidate Adam Kokesh John Monds Lincoln Chafee
Home state Indiana Georgia Wyoming
First vote 6
(6.2%) 		6
(6.2%) 		6
(6.2%)
Final vote Eliminated Eliminated Eliminated
 
Candidate Mark Whitney
Home state California
First vote 6
(6.2%)
Final vote Eliminated
First alignment vote results by congressional district
  Jacob Hornberger
  Jo Jorgensen
  Vermin Supreme
  Lincoln Chafee
  Tie

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota used ranked-choice voting to tabulate the results of their caucus. After 7 rounds, Jacob Hornberger was declared the winner.

Minnesota Libertarian presidential caucus, February 25, 2020[17][18]
Candidate Round 1 Round 7
Votes % Transfer Votes %
Jacob Hornberger 37 38.1% + 10 47 59.5%
Jo Jorgensen 12 12.4% + 20 32 40.5%
Vermin Supreme 11 11.3% - 11 Eliminated
Adam Kokesh 6 6.2% - 6 Eliminated
John Monds 6 6.2% - 6 Eliminated
Lincoln Chafee 6 6.2% - 6 Eliminated
Mark Whitney 6 6.2% - 6 Eliminated
N.O.T.A. 4 4.1% - 4 Eliminated
Arvin Vohra 2 2.1% - 2 Eliminated
Ken Armstrong 2 2.1% - 2 Eliminated
Sam Robb 2 2.1% - 2 Eliminated
Keenan Wallace Dunham 1 1.0% - 1 Eliminated
Sorinne Ardeleanu 1 1.0% - 1 Eliminated
Abrahamson [sic] (write-in) 1 1.0% - 1 Eliminated
Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman 0 0.0% Eliminated
Jedi Hill 0 0.0% Eliminated
Souraya Faas 0 0.0% Eliminated
Steven Richey 0 0.0% Eliminated
Round 1 Total 97 100.0% Round 7 Total 79 100.0%
Minnesota Libertarian vice presidential caucus, February 25, 2020[19][18]
Candidate Round 1 Round 2
Votes % Transfer Votes %
Jeff Wood 32 40.0% + 0 32 52.5%
Spike Cohen 29 36.3% + 0 29 47.5%
NOTA 19 23.8% - 19 Eliminated
Round 1 Total 80 100.0% Round 2 Total 61 100.0%

General election

[edit]

Final predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[20] Lean D
Inside Elections[21] Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Likely D
Politico[23] Lean D
RCP[24] Tossup
Niskanen[25] Likely D
CNN[26] Lean D
The Economist[27] Likely D
CBS News[28] Lean D
270towin[29] Likely D
ABC News[30] Lean D
NPR[31] Lean D
NBC News[32] Lean D
FiveThirtyEight[33] Solid D

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
DFL 		Donald J.
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[e] 		Margin
270 to Win[34] October 27 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 51.6% 41.8% 6.6% Biden +9.8
Real Clear Politics[35] October 12–27, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.0% 43.7% 8.3% Biden +4.3
FiveThirtyEight[36] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 51.8% 42.7% 5.5% Biden +9.2
Average 50.5% 42.7% 6.8% Biden +7.8

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
DFL 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,031 (LV) ± 2.5% 41%[g] 56% - - – –
Research Co.[38] Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 54% - - 1%[h] 4%
Data for Progress[39] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,259 (LV) ± 2.8% 43% 51% 4% 2% 1%[i] –
Swayable[40] Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 466 (LV) ± 5.9% 43% 53% 4% 0% – –
Morning Consult[41] Oct 22–31, 2020 883 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 52% - - – –
Public Policy Polling[42] Oct 29–30, 2020 770 (V) – 43% 54% - - 2%[j] 1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[43] Oct 25–30, 2020 1,138 (LV) – 44% 53% - - 3%[k] –
St. Cloud State University[44] Oct 10–29, 2020 372 (A) ± 6.7% 39% 54% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] Oct 1–28, 2020 5,498 (LV) – 42% 55% - - – –
SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 News[45] Oct 23–27, 2020 649 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 47% - - 5%[l] 6%
Gravis Marketing[46] Oct 24–26, 2020 657 (LV) ± 3.8% 39% 53% - - – 8%
Trafalgar Group[47] Oct 24–25, 2020 1,065 (LV) ± 2.92% 45% 48% 2% - 4%[m] 1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[48] Oct 17–20, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.6% 43% 53% - - 3%[n] 1%
SurveyUSA/KSTP[49] Oct 16–20, 2020 625 (LV) ± 5% 42% 48% - - – –
Morning Consult[41] Oct 11–20, 2020 864 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 51% - - – –
Change Research/MinnPost[50] Oct 12–15, 2020[o] 1,021 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 49% 2% 0% 2%[p] 2%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America[51] Oct 10–13, 2020 200 (LV) – 41% 52% - - – –
Morning Consult[52] Oct 2–11, 2020 898 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 50% - - – –
SurveyUSA/ABC6 News[53] Oct 1–6, 2020 929 (LV) ± 3.9% 40% 47% - - 3%[q] 10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] Sep 1–30, 2020 2,808 (LV) – 43% 55% - - – 2%
Suffolk University[54] Sep 20–24, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 47% 2% 0% 4%[r] 6%
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
/MPR News/KARE 11[55] 		Sep 21–23, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 48% - - 2% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[56] Sep 12–17, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.66% 42% 51% 0% 0% 1%[s] 5%
ABC/Washington Post[57] Sep 8–13, 2020 615 (LV) ± 4.5% 41% 57% - - 1%[t] 1%
Morning Consult[58] Sep 4–13, 2020 643 (LV) ± 4% 44%[u] 48% - - 2%[j] 6%
YouGov/CBS[59] Sep 9–11, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 50% - - 2%[v] 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[60] Sep 8–10, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 50% 2% 1% 0%[w] 5%[x]
SurveyUSA[61] Sep 4–7, 2020 553 (LV) ± 5.2% 40% 49% - - 4%[y] 7%
Morning Consult[62] Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 649 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 44%[u] 49% - - – –
PPP[63] Sep 3–4, 2020 877 (V) ± 3.3% 44% 52% - - 3%[n] 1%
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[64][A] Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.38% 45% 48% – – – 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] Aug 1–31, 2020 1,939 (LV) – 43% 56% - - – 1%
Morning Consult[65] Aug 21–30, 2020 647 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 43% 50% - - – –
Trafalgar Group[66] Aug 15–18, 2020 1,141 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 47% 4% - 1%[z] 2%
Morning Consult[65] Aug 7–16, 2020 615 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 42% 50% - - – –
Emerson College[67] Aug 8–10, 2020 733 (LV) ± 3.6% 49%[aa] 51% - - – –
David Binder Research[68] Jul 30–31, 2020 200 (LV) – 36% 54% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] Jul 1–31, 2020 2,288 (LV) – 47% 51% - - – 2%
Morning Consult[69] Jul 17–26, 2020 662 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 47% - - – –
Trafalgar Group[70] Jul 23–25, 2020 1,129 (LV) ± 2.8% 44% 49% 2% - 3%[ab] 2%
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[71][B] Jul 22–23, 2020 1,218 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 52% - - – 6%
FOX News[72] Jul 18–20, 2020 776 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 51% - - 6%[ac] 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[37] Jun 8–30, 2020 860 (LV) – 42% 57% - - – 1%
Gravis Marketing[73] Jun 19, 2020 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42%[ad] 58%[ae] - - – –
Morning Consult[58] May 27– Jun 5, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% - - – –
Harper Polling/Jason Lewis[64][A] May 26–28, 2020 510 (LV) – 42% 50% – – – 8%
Morning Consult[69] May 17–26, 2020 647 (LV) – 42% 49% - - – –
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
/MPR News/KARE 11[74] 		May 18–20, 2020 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% - - – 7%
Morning Consult[58] May 7–16, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 38% 55% - - – –
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune[75] Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 50% - - – 12%
Former candidates

Donald J. Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (DFL) 		Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune[76] Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 55% – 7%
DFM Research[77] Feb 26 – Mar 3, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 35% 52% 7%[af] 6%[ag]

Donald J. Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (DFL) 		Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon/StarTribune[75] Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% – 11%

Donald J. Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (DFL) 		Other Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune[76] Oct 14–16, 2019 800 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 51% – 11%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald J. Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
KFF/Cook Political Report[78] Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019 958 (RV) ± 4% 28% 41% 21%
Public Policy Polling[79][ah] Oct 4–6, 2019 1,175 (V) – 42% 52% 6%
Public Policy Polling[80][ah] Jun 15–16, 2018 717 (V) – 41% 51% 8%

with Donald J. Trump, generic Democrat, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[f] 		Margin
of error 		Donald J.
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
DFM Research[77] Feb 26 – Mar 3, 2019 550 (A) ± 4.2% 35% 45% 6% 15%[ag]

Results

[edit]
2020 United States presidential election in Minnesota[81][82]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL) Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,717,077 52.40% +5.96%
Republican Donald J. Trump
Michael R. Pence 		1,484,065 45.28% +0.35%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		34,976 1.07% −2.77%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		10,033 0.31% −0.95%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball 		7,940 0.24% −
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard 		5,651 0.17% −
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson 		5,611 0.17% −
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman 		1,210 0.04% −
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett 		643 0.02% −0.04%
Write-in 9,965 0.3% -0.6%
Total votes 3,277,171 100%
Democratic (DFL) hold

By county

[edit]
County Joe Biden
DFL 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Aitkin 3,607 35.98% 6,258 62.42% 160 1.60% -2,651 -26.44% 10,025
Anoka 100,893 47.79% 104,902 49.69% 5,337 2.52% -4,009 -1.90% 211,132
Becker 6,589 33.96% 12,438 64.11% 374 1.93% -5,849 -30.15% 19,401
Beltrami 11,426 47.24% 12,188 50.39% 575 2.37% -762 -3.15% 24,189
Benton 7,280 32.70% 14,382 64.61% 598 2.69% -7,102 -31.91% 22,260
Big Stone 1,053 35.41% 1,863 62.64% 58 1.95% -810 -27.23% 2,974
Blue Earth 18,330 50.84% 16,731 46.41% 990 2.75% 1,599 4.43% 36,051
Brown 4,753 32.48% 9,552 65.27% 330 2.25% -4,799 -32.79% 14,635
Carlton 10,098 49.58% 9,791 48.07% 480 2.35% 307 1.51% 20,369
Carver 30,774 46.37% 34,009 51.25% 1,578 2.38% -3,235 -4.88% 66,361
Cass 6,342 34.68% 11,620 63.54% 327 1.78% -5,278 -28.86% 18,289
Chippewa 2,226 33.67% 4,250 64.29% 135 2.04% -2,024 -30.62% 6,611
Chisago 11,806 34.15% 21,916 63.40% 848 2.45% -10,110 -29.25% 34,570
Clay 16,357 50.74% 15,043 46.66% 839 2.60% 1,314 4.08% 32,239
Clearwater 1,260 26.76% 3,372 71.62% 76 1.62% -2,112 -44.86% 4,708
Cook 2,496 65.58% 1,203 31.61% 107 2.81% 1,293 33.97% 3,806
Cottonwood 1,834 30.03% 4,165 68.20% 108 1.77% -2,331 -38.17% 6,107
Crow Wing 13,726 34.17% 25,676 63.91% 771 1.92% -11,950 -29.74% 40,173
Dakota 146,155 55.73% 109,638 41.81% 6,466 2.46% 36,517 13.92% 262,259
Dodge 4,079 33.47% 7,783 63.86% 325 2.67% -3,704 -30.39% 12,187
Douglas 7,868 32.56% 15,799 65.38% 498 2.06% -7,931 -32.82% 24,165
Faribault 2,531 31.98% 5,191 65.59% 192 2.43% -2,660 -33.61% 7,914
Fillmore 4,551 37.48% 7,301 60.14% 289 2.38% -2,750 -22.66% 12,141
Freeborn 6,889 40.96% 9,578 56.95% 351 2.09% -2,689 -15.99% 16,818
Goodhue 11,806 41.23% 16,052 56.06% 778 2.71% -4,246 -14.83% 28,636
Grant 1,300 35.58% 2,269 62.10% 85 2.32% -969 -26.52% 3,654
Hennepin 532,623 70.46% 205,973 27.25% 17,373 2.29% 326,650 43.21% 755,969
Houston 4,853 42.42% 6,334 55.37% 253 2.21% -1,481 -12.95% 11,440
Hubbard 4,462 34.42% 8,202 63.26% 301 2.32% -3,740 -28.84% 12,965
Isanti 7,138 29.45% 16,491 68.05% 606 2.50% -9,353 -38.60% 24,235
Itasca 10,786 40.61% 15,239 57.37% 536 2.02% -4,453 -16.76% 26,561
Jackson 1,745 29.99% 3,948 67.85% 126 2.16% -2,203 -37.86% 5,819
Kanabec 2,774 30.02% 6,278 67.93% 190 2.05% -3,504 -37.91% 9,242
Kandiyohi 8,440 36.12% 14,437 61.78% 490 2.10% -5,997 -25.66% 23,367
Kittson 1,006 38.12% 1,546 58.58% 87 3.30% -540 -20.46% 2,639
Koochiching 2,659 38.41% 4,131 59.68% 132 1.91% -1,472 -21.27% 6,922
Lac Qui Parle 1,446 35.79% 2,528 62.57% 66 1.64% -1,082 -26.78% 4,040
Lake 3,647 50.64% 3,393 47.11% 162 2.25% 254 3.53% 7,202
Lake of the Woods 671 27.87% 1,704 70.76% 33 1.37% -1,033 -42.89% 2,408
Le Sueur 5,672 33.73% 10,775 64.07% 371 2.20% -5,103 -30.34% 16,818
Lincoln 937 30.08% 2,121 68.09% 57 1.83% -1,184 -38.01% 3,115
Lyon 4,634 35.94% 7,979 61.89% 280 2.17% -3,345 -25.95% 12,893
McLeod 6,413 30.64% 13,986 66.81% 534 2.55% -7,573 -36.17% 20,933
Mahnomen 1,112 48.26% 1,142 49.57% 50 2.17% -30 -1.31% 2,304
Marshall 1,295 25.33% 3,721 72.78% 97 1.89% -2,426 -47.45% 5,113
Martin 3,305 30.02% 7,480 67.94% 224 2.04% -4,175 -37.72% 11,009
Meeker 3,867 28.58% 9,359 69.18% 303 2.24% -5,492 -40.60% 13,529
Mille Lacs 4,404 29.98% 9,952 67.75% 333 2.27% -5,548 -37.77% 14,689
Morrison 4,367 22.33% 14,821 75.78% 370 1.89% -10,454 -53.45% 19,558
Mower 8,899 46.00% 10,025 51.82% 421 2.18% -1,126 -5.82% 19,345
Murray 1,449 29.60% 3,363 68.69% 84 1.71% -1,914 -39.09% 4,896
Nicollet 9,622 50.31% 9,018 47.15% 485 2.54% 604 3.16% 19,125
Nobles 2,933 33.65% 5,600 64.26% 182 2.09% -2,667 -30.61% 8,715
Norman 1,404 40.80% 1,953 56.76% 84 2.44% -549 -15.96% 3,441
Olmsted 49,491 54.16% 39,692 43.43% 2,202 2.41% 9,799 10.73% 91,385
Otter Tail 11,958 32.85% 23,800 65.39% 641 1.76% -11,842 -32.54% 36,399
Pennington 2,568 35.29% 4,532 62.28% 177 2.43% -1,964 -26.99% 7,277
Pine 5,419 33.87% 10,256 64.10% 326 2.03% -4,837 -30.23% 16,001
Pipestone 1,306 26.44% 3,553 71.92% 81 1.64% -2,247 -45.48% 4,940
Polk 5,439 34.88% 9,865 63.26% 290 1.86% -4,426 -28.38% 15,594
Pope 2,477 35.27% 4,417 62.90% 128 1.83% -1,940 -27.63% 7,022
Ramsey 211,620 71.50% 77,376 26.14% 6,981 2.36% 134,244 45.36% 295,977
Red Lake 691 31.47% 1,454 66.21% 51 2.32% -763 -34.74% 2,196
Redwood 2,355 28.43% 5,771 69.66% 158 1.91% -3,416 -41.23% 8,284
Renville 2,496 30.71% 5,467 67.26% 165 2.03% -2,971 -36.55% 8,128
Rice 17,402 48.76% 17,464 48.94% 820 2.30% -62 -0.18% 35,686
Rock 1,556 29.69% 3,583 68.38% 101 1.93% -2,027 -38.69% 5,240
Roseau 2,188 25.98% 6,065 72.02% 168 2.00% -3,877 -46.04% 8,421
St. Louis 67,704 56.64% 49,017 41.01% 2,810 2.35% 18,687 15.63% 119,531
Scott 40,040 45.52% 45,872 52.15% 2,053 2.33% -5,832 -6.63% 87,965
Sherburne 18,065 32.48% 36,222 65.13% 1,325 2.39% -18,157 -32.65% 55,612
Sibley 2,417 28.60% 5,864 69.38% 171 2.02% -3,447 -40.78% 8,452
Stearns 31,879 37.58% 50,959 60.07% 1,997 2.35% -19,080 -22.49% 84,835
Steele 7,917 37.47% 12,656 59.90% 555 2.63% -4,739 -22.43% 21,128
Stevens 1,922 37.80% 3,044 59.86% 119 2.34% -1,122 -22.06% 5,085
Swift 1,784 34.35% 3,316 63.86% 93 1.79% -1,532 -29.51% 5,193
Todd 3,286 24.79% 9,753 73.57% 218 1.64% -6,467 -48.78% 13,257
Traverse 661 35.46% 1,172 62.88% 31 1.66% -511 -27.42% 1,864
Wabasha 4,696 35.78% 8,153 62.13% 274 2.09% -3,457 -26.35% 13,123
Wadena 2,023 26.35% 5,520 71.90% 134 1.75% -3,497 -45.55% 7,677
Waseca 3,496 33.65% 6,624 63.76% 269 2.59% -3,128 -30.11% 10,389
Washington 89,165 53.46% 73,764 44.23% 3,857 2.31% 15,401 9.23% 166,786
Watonwan 1,987 38.20% 3,103 59.66% 111 2.14% -1,116 -21.46% 5,201
Wilkin 1,026 29.91% 2,328 67.87% 76 2.22% -1,302 -37.96% 3,430
Winona 13,333 49.07% 13,227 48.68% 613 2.25% 106 0.39% 27,173
Wright 28,430 34.49% 51,973 63.05% 2,023 2.46% -23,543 -28.56% 82,426
Yellow Medicine 1,688 30.54% 3,734 67.55% 106 1.91% -2,046 -37.01% 5,528
Totals 1,717,077 52.40% 1,484,065 45.28% 76,029 2.32% 233,012 7.12% 3,277,171

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Biden and Trump each won four of the state's eight congressional districts. Neither won any district in Minnesota represented by the other party in the House of Representatives, although incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson was unseated in the Trump-won 7th district.

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 43.9% 54% Jim Hagedorn
2nd 52.4% 45.5% Angie Craig
3rd 58.7% 39.4% Dean Phillips
4th 67.6% 30.5% Betty McCollum
5th 80.3% 17.7% Ilhan Omar
6th 38.8% 58% Tom Emmer
7th 34.4% 63.8% Collin Peterson
Michelle Fischbach
8th 41.7% 56.3% Pete Stauber

Analysis

[edit]

After narrowly losing the state in 2016, the Trump campaign identified Minnesota as an offensive target in 2020; polls of Minnesota voters throughout the campaign, however, showed Biden leading. Throughout the summer leading up to the election, the Twin Cities metropolitan area was the epicenter of Black Lives Matter protests, in light of the murder of George Floyd having taken place in Minneapolis.

Trump attempted to court white suburban Minnesotans with law and order messaging by using images of rioting in campaign ads and claiming that Biden would "destroy suburbia". These efforts failed, as Biden massively improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in the Twin Cities suburbs. With his resounding victories in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, Biden became the first Democrat to win over 70% of the vote in any Minnesota county since Minnesotan Hubert Humphrey did in Carlton, Lake, and St. Louis Counties (the core of the heavily unionized Iron Range region) in 1968.

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump No
Answer 		% of
Voters
Party
Democrat 95 4 N/A 35
Republican 8 91 N/A 34
Independent 55 40 N/A 31
Gender
Men 47 50 3 46
Women 58 41 1 54
Race
White 51 47 2 87
Black 77 21 2 4
Latino 60 38 2 4
Asian N/A N/A N/A 2
Other N/A N/A N/A 3
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men 44 53 3 45
White women 57 42 1 55
Black men 69 30 1 6
Black women N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino men (of any race) N/A N/A N/A 3
Latino women (of any race) 63 35 2 4
All other races N/A N/A N/A 3
Marital status
Married 49 50 1 59
Not married 58 39 3 41
Age
18–24 years old 66 29 N/A 8
25–29 years old 64 30 N/A 6
30–39 years old 54 43 3 15
40–49 years old 52 47 1 13
50–64 years old 51 48 N/A 29
65 and older 48 51 1 30
Sexual orientation
LGBT N/A N/A N/A 5
Heterosexual 51 47 2 95
Education
College graduate 65 34 N/A 43
No college degree 45 53 1 57
Education by race/ethnicity
White college graduates 62 35 3 39
White no college degree 42 57 N/A 48
Non-white college graduates 73 25 3 4
Non-white no college degree 64 32 4 9
Income
Under $30,000 58 40 2 16
$30,000–$49,999 55 39 6 19
Over $200,000 58 42 N/A 9
Racism in the U.S is
The most important problem 85 14 1 9
An important problem 62 35 3 65
Area Type
Urban 68 29 1 44
Suburban 42 56 2 34
Rural 46 52 2 16
Source: CNN[83]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Lewis' campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Giffords, whose founder, Gabby Giffords, had endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  2. ^ a b Candidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. ^ Candidate withdrew during the first days of absentee voting.
  4. ^ Candidate withdrew after in-person absentee voting started on January 17, 2020.
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  10. ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 3%
  12. ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  13. ^ West (B) with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  14. ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
  15. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  16. ^ "Another Third Party Candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  17. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  18. ^ "Refused" with 2%; Fuente (A), "Other" and West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) with 0%; Kennedy (SWP) and La Riva (PSOL) with no voters
  19. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  20. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Other" and would not vote with 0%
  21. ^ a b Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  22. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%
  23. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  24. ^ Includes "Refused"
  25. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%
  26. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  27. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. ^ "Another Party Candidate"
  29. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  30. ^ Including undecided voters who lean towards Trump
  31. ^ Including undecided voters who lean towards Biden
  32. ^ For Howard Schultz as independent
  33. ^ a b Listed as "unsure/other/refused"
  34. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Alliance for a Better Minnesota

References

[edit]
  1. ^ State Canvassing Board Certifies Results of 2020 General Election The total number of voters was 3,292,997. That means 79.96 percent of eligible Minnesotans participated in the 2020 General Election. That is the highest percentage turnout since 1956, and the highest total number of voters ever.
  2. ^ "Minnesota Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  3. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  5. ^ "Trump got more votes in Minnesota in 2020 than he did in 2016. But Biden got way more than Clinton did". MinnPost. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  6. ^ "Despite attention, Trump gained little ground on Iron Range". The Star Tribune. November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  7. ^ "Minnesota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  8. ^ "State Canvassing Board Certificate - 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota State Canvassing Board. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  9. ^ "Minnesota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  10. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  11. ^ Cillizza, Chris; Enten, Harry (September 13, 2018). "There's a new No. 1 among 2020 Democrats". CNN.
  12. ^ Burke, Michael (November 25, 2018). "Klobuchar says she is still considering 2020 run". The Hill.
  13. ^ Smith, Mitch; Lerer, Lisa (February 10, 2019). "Amy Klobuchar Enters 2020 Presidential Race". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  14. ^ Kiersz, Andy; Hickey, Walt (March 4, 2020). "Joe Biden wins Minnesota primary". Business Insider.
  15. ^ "State Canvassing Board Certificate 2020 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota. Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. March 10, 2020. Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
  16. ^ "Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. August 17, 2020. Retrieved November 24, 2022.
  17. ^ "We had ranked choice voting for our caucus, but a lot of people are interested in our first choice vote totals. This is how it broke down statewide". Facebook. Libertarian Party of Minnesota. February 26, 2020.
  18. ^ a b Galvan, Jill (February 26, 2020). "Libertarian 2020 Caucus Full Results by Jill Galvan". Libertarian Party of Minnesota. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
  19. ^ "We had ranked choice voting for our caucus, but a lot of people are interested in our first choice vote totals. This is how it broke down statewide". February 26, 2020 – via Facebook.com.
  20. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  24. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  25. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  26. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  27. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  30. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  31. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  32. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  33. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  34. ^ 270 to Win
  35. ^ Real Clear Politics
  36. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  37. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  38. ^ Research Co.
  39. ^ Data for Progress
  40. ^ Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  41. ^ a b Morning Consult
  42. ^ Public Policy Polling
  43. ^ Targoz Market Research/PollSmart
  44. ^ St. Cloud State University
  45. ^ SurveyUSA/KSTP/ABC6 News Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  46. ^ Gravis Marketing
  47. ^ Trafalgar Group
  48. ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
  49. ^ SurveyUSA/KSTP
  50. ^ Change Research/MinnPost
  51. ^ David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America
  52. ^ Morning Consult
  53. ^ SurveyUSA/ABC6 News Archived October 11, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  54. ^ Suffolk University
  55. ^ Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
    /MPR News/KARE 11
  56. ^ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  57. ^ ABC/Washington Post
  58. ^ a b c Morning Consult
  59. ^ YouGov/CBS
  60. ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
  61. ^ SurveyUSA
  62. ^ Morning Consult
  63. ^ PPP
  64. ^ a b Harper Polling/Jason Lewis
  65. ^ a b Morning Consult
  66. ^ Trafalgar Group
  67. ^ Emerson College
  68. ^ David Binder Research
  69. ^ a b Morning Consult
  70. ^ Trafalgar Group
  71. ^ Public Policy Polling/Giffords Archived July 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  72. ^ FOX News
  73. ^ Gravis Marketing
  74. ^ Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
    /MPR News/KARE 11
  75. ^ a b Mason-Dixon/StarTribune
  76. ^ a b Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc./StarTribune
  77. ^ a b "DFM Research" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 6, 2019. Retrieved April 24, 2019.
  78. ^ KFF/Cook Political Report
  79. ^ Public Policy Polling
  80. ^ Public Policy Polling
  81. ^ "State of Minnesota Canvassing Report" (PDF). Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. November 25, 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on November 25, 2020. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
  82. ^ "Official List of Candidates". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  83. ^ "Minnesota 2020 President Exit Polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 14, 2020.

Further reading

[edit]
[edit]
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