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2021 Canadian federal election

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2021 Canadian federal election
← 2019 September 20, 2021 (2021-09-20) 45th →
338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout62.3%[1] (Decrease 4.7 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Justin Trudeau in 2019 at the G7 (Biarritz) (48622478973) (cropped) (cropped) (cropped).jpg
ErinO'Toole (cropped).jpg
Yves-François Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Seats before 155 119 32
Seats won 160[a] 119 32
Seat change Increase 5 Steady Steady
Popular vote 5,556,629 5,747,410 1,301,615
Percentage 32.62% 33.74% 7.64%
Swing Decrease 0.50 pp Decrease 0.60 pp Increase 0.01 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped v2).jpg
Annamie Paul in Toronto Regent Park (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier portrait by Yan Parisien 2023.png
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre (lost) Ran in Beauce (lost)
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55% 0 seats, 1.62%
Seats before 24 2 0
Seats won 25 2 0
Seat change Increase 1 Steady Steady
Popular vote 3,036,348 396,988 840,993
Percentage 17.82% 2.33% 4.94%
Swing Increase 1.84 pp Decrease 4.22 pp Increase 3.32 pp
Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Part of a series on the
44th Canadian Parliament
44th Canadian federal election
44th Canadian Parliament
Party caucuses in the House
Party caucuses in the Senate

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The 2021 Canadian federal election was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary Simon on August 15, 2021, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of parliament for a snap election.[2]

Trudeau won a third term as prime minister, his second minority government.[3] Though the Liberals were hoping to win a majority government to govern alone,[4] the results were mostly unchanged from the 2019 Canadian federal election.[5] The Liberals won the most seats at 160; as this fell short of the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons, they formed a minority government with support from other parties.[6][7] The Liberals set a record for the lowest vote share of a party that would go on to form government, winning 32.6 per cent of the popular vote, while losing the popular vote to the Conservatives as they did in 2019.[8]

The Conservatives led by Erin O'Toole won 119 seats, two fewer than their result in 2019, and continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois led by Yves-François Blanchet won 32 seats, unchanged from the prior election. The New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh won 25 seats, a net increase of one seat, but nonetheless fell short of expectations.[9] The Green Party maintained two seats but party leader Annamie Paul was defeated for the third[b] time in her riding of Toronto Centre. The party received 2.3 per cent of the popular vote, approximately a third of what they won in 2019.[10][11][12] The People's Party did not win any seats, despite winning nearly 5 per cent of the popular vote, and party leader Maxime Bernier was defeated for the second time[c] in his riding of Beauce.

Trudeau faced public blowback for holding an election in the middle of a global pandemic due to his expectation that doing so could translate his supposed rallying popularity into a landslide victory. Criticism worsened when Trudeau failed to win by a majority and instead repeated his 2019 election showing.[13] An official government probe later found that China attempted to meddle in the election to influence Canadian foreign policy.[14]

Following the election, Paul resigned as Green Party leader two months after the election,[15] and O'Toole was ousted as leader by his party's caucus in February 2022 over the poor showing in the election and other controversies ongoing at the time. In March 2022, the NDP formed a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals.[16]

The election was the second one in a row where the Liberals succeeded in winning a plurality of seats despite having fewer votes than the Conservative Party.

Background

[edit]

The 2019 Canadian federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government. The Conservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois regained official party status and became the third party, replacing the New Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs (twelve) for official party status. No other party won any seats.[17][18]

In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 federal election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the 43rd Canadian Parliament.[19][20][21] Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th federal election, and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[22][23] On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided not to adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader; his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020.[24][25] On December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[26] He stayed on until his successor Erin O'Toole was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[27][28]

On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20.[2]

Political parties and standings

[edit]

The table below lists parties represented and seats held in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, at dissolution, and after the 2021 federal election. An expected by-election in Haldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.

A polling station on election day
Name Ideology Position Leader 2019 result Seats at
dissolution 		2021 result
Votes (%) Seats Votes (%) Seats
Liberal
Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
33.12%
157 / 338
155 / 338
32.62%
160 / 338
Conservative
Centre-right to right-wing Erin O'Toole
34.34%
121 / 338
119 / 338
33.74%
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois
Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.63%
32 / 338
32 / 338
7.64%
32 / 338
New Democratic
Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
15.98%
24 / 338
24 / 338
17.82%
25 / 338
Green Green politics Annamie Paul
6.55%
3 / 338
2 / 338
2.33%
2 / 338
People's
Right-wing to far-right Maxime Bernier
1.62%
0 / 338
0 / 338
4.94%
0 / 338
Independents N/A
0.41%
1 / 338
5 / 338
0.19%
0 / 338
Vacant seats N/A –
0 / 338
1 / 338
 –
0 / 338

Incumbents not running for re-election

[edit]

Below are the 31 MPs who chose not to run in the 2021 federal election.

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Will Amos[29] Pontiac Quebec August 8, 2021
  Larry Bagnell[30] Yukon Yukon August 5, 2021
  Navdeep Bains[31] Mississauga—Malton Ontario January 12, 2021
  Lyne Bessette[32] Brome—Missisquoi Quebec July 16, 2021
  Bob Bratina[33] Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario May 17, 2021
  Wayne Easter[34] Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14, 2021
  Pat Finnigan[35] Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14, 2021
  Paul Lefebvre[36] Sudbury Ontario March 12, 2021
  Karen McCrimmon[37] Kanata—Carleton Ontario August 8, 2021
  Catherine McKenna[38] Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27, 2021
  Geoff Regan[39] Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31, 2021
  Gagan Sikand[40] Mississauga—Streetsville Ontario August 15, 2021
  Adam Vaughan[41] Spadina—Fort York Ontario August 8, 2021
  Kate Young[42] London West Ontario March 18, 2021
  Steven Blaney[43] Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Quebec July 14, 2021
  Peter Kent[44] Thornhill Ontario November 19, 2020
  Tom Lukiwski[45] Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26, 2021
  Phil McColeman[46] Brantford—Brant Ontario December 30, 2020
  Cathy McLeod[47] Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo British Columbia February 4, 2021
  Bruce Stanton[48] Simcoe North Ontario June 25, 2020
  David Sweet[49] Flamborough—Glanbrook Ontario January 4, 2021
  David Yurdiga[50] Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Alberta August 14, 2021
  Louise Charbonneau[51] Trois-Rivières Quebec January 14, 2021
  Simon Marcil[51] Mirabel Quebec January 14, 2021
  Scott Duvall[52][53] Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5, 2021
  Jack Harris[54][55] St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11, 2021
  Mumilaaq Qaqqaq[56] Nunavut Nunavut May 20, 2021
  Yasmin Ratansi[d] Don Valley East Ontario No announcement
  Ramesh Sangha[d] Brampton Centre Ontario No announcement
  Marwan Tabbara[d] Kitchener South—Hespeler Ontario No announcement
  Jody Wilson-Raybould[57] Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8, 2021

Incumbent not renominated

[edit]

One MP was not renominated by his party:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Michel Boudrias[58] Terrebonne Quebec August 4, 2021

Timeline

[edit]
See also: 43rd Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2020–2021)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler June 6, 2020[59] Marwan Tabbara █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1] █ Independent
Toronto Centre August 17, 2020[60] Bill Morneau █ Liberal Resigned[a 2] October 26, 2020 Marci Ien █ Liberal
York Centre September 1, 2020[61] Michael Levitt █ Liberal Resigned[a 3] October 26, 2020 Ya'ara Saks █ Liberal
Don Valley East November 9, 2020[62] Yasmin Ratansi █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 4] █ Independent
Hastings—Lennox and Addington January 20, 2021[63][64] Derek Sloan █ Conservative Expelled from caucus[a 5] █ Independent
Brampton Centre January 25, 2021[65][66] Ramesh Sangha █ Liberal Expelled from caucus[a 6] █ Independent
Haldimand—Norfolk May 11, 2021[67] Diane Finley █ Conservative Resigned █ Vacant
Fredericton June 10, 2021[68] Jenica Atwin █ Green Changed affiliation █ Liberal
  1. ^ Laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament
  2. ^ To pursue leadership of OECD
  3. ^ To become a non-profit executive
  4. ^ Revelation of nepotism in staff hiring
  5. ^ Accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm
  6. ^ Made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement

2019

[edit]

2020

[edit]
  • August 23–24, 2020: Erin O'Toole is elected leader of the Conservative Party.
  • October 3, 2020: Annamie Paul is elected leader of the Green Party.

2021

[edit]
  • August 15, 2021: Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped.[69]
  • September 2, 2021: First French language leaders' debate, organized by TVA Nouvelles.
  • September 8, 2021: Second French language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 9, 2021: English language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 10–13, 2021: Advance polling.
  • September 14, 2021: Last day to apply online for mail-in voting. Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office.
  • September 20, 2021: Election Day.

Endorsements

[edit]
Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal Conservative New Democratic Bloc Québécois Green People's
Media Toronto Star[70] National Post[71]
Toronto Sun[72] 		Le Devoir[73]
Public figures Hillary Clinton[74]
Bruce Heyman[75]
Andrew Leach[75]
Hazel McCallion[76]
Barack Obama[74]
Andrew Weaver[77] 		Conrad Black[78]
Celina Caesar-Chavannes[79]
Rick Hillier[80]
François Legault[81]
Brian Lilley[82]
Mark Norman[83] 		Cindy Blackstock[84]
Bernie Sanders[85]
Rashida Tlaib[86] 		Brian Peckford[87]
Unions and business associations United Steelworkers[88]

Campaign

[edit]

Early campaign (August 2021)

[edit]
Election signs on the street in Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

The election call occurred at the same time as the fall of Kabul, on August 15.[89] Trudeau thus received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Canadians from Afghanistan, as well as Afghans who supported Canada's military and diplomatic efforts during the War.[90]

Criticism of Trudeau's decision to call an early election, particularly amidst the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, was a major theme of his opponents' campaigns, and commentators noted a lack of support for a snap election amongst the public.[91][92][93]

The beginning of the campaign proved difficult for the Liberals, who slightly fell behind the Conservatives in the polls of voting intentions.[90] The Conservative released their platform on the second day of the campaign. The party tried to change its image with this document by putting more focus on the environment, mental health, and LGBTQ+ rights issues.[94] Meanwhile, Trudeau attacked the new Conservative leader Erin O'Toole on the topics of compulsory vaccination for federal officials, abortion and the privatization of health care.[95]

On August 25, Minister for Women and Gender Equality Maryam Monsef referred to the Taliban as "our brothers". Many on social media shared the video of this statement, and saw this as an indication that she felt sympathetic to the terrorist group. Monsef said that this was false, and further stated that she only chose those words because Muslims tend to refer to each other as "brothers".[96]

On August 27, 2021, Trudeau was forced to cancel a campaign rally set for Bolton, Ontario, over security concerns arising from groups of protestors yelling obscenities at Trudeau. There were previous incidents of protesters showing up at his rallies criticizing COVID-19 vaccines and public health measures.[97]

Issues on the campaign trail

[edit]

Foreign policy

[edit]

Foreign policy debates focused on China and the situation in Afghanistan. For Afghanistan, discussions focused on ways to mitigate the immediate humanitarian crisis facing the country.[98][99] The group Canadian Campaign for Afghan Peace launched an open letter on August 17 calling on political parties to take position of the new situation in Afghanistan.[100]

The campaign took place during the extradition case of Meng Wanzhou, which had exacerbated tensions between Canada and China. O'Toole accused Trudeau of being "weak on China", and promised to scale up Canada's hostility towards the country if elected.[101][102]

According to Shadwick Martin, the tendency to relegate defence and foreign policy to minor appearances continued in 2021. He argues that the Liberals did not deviate from their government's existing foreign policy, while the Conservatives produced a lengthy list of reforms that one commentator described as "scattered and unfocused". The NDP's propositions were essentially unchanged from 2019.[103]

Climate change

[edit]

As in 2019, Climate change was a major issue in the campaign. In March 2021, Conservative leader O'Toole announced a carbon pricing plan to replace the current Liberal carbon tax, despite previous Conservative opposition to any form of a carbon tax.[104] There was thus a broad consensus among all represented parties for policies to mitigate climate change, although they differed in the emissions targets, the level of the carbon tax, and the transition path to a clean economy. Only the People's Party opposed all climate change policies and vowed to withdraw from the Paris climate accord.[105]

COVID-19

[edit]

The COVID-19 pandemic was a major campaign issue. The Liberal party sought to defend its pandemic response, while trying to tie Erin O'Toole to Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. O'Toole always sidestepped questions about his previous support for Kenney's pandemic response by saying he would work with any premier to face the pandemic regardless of their political stripes.[106] During the campaign, Alberta was experiencing its worst wave of the pandemic in terms of hospitalisations.[107]

Meanwhile other parties explained what they would have done differently had they been in a similar situation. The Bloc Québecois criticized the amount of money invested in Federal aid for workers, especially the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB).[108] The NDP, on the other hand, criticized the government's "aggressive" crackdown on possibly fraudulent CERB claims, while calling for clawing back wage subsidy payments to companies who fired their workers while received this benefit.[109] The People's Party was the only party opposing vaccine passports, mask mandates and lockdowns.[110][111]

Gun control

[edit]

In September 2021, O'Toole changed his position on gun control. Reverting from his initial promise of repealing Prime Minister Trudeau's May 2020 ban on assault weapons, he changed his stance on the issue, promising that he would not repeal the ban.[112] Political commentators and analysts described O'Toole's leadership as shifting the Conservative Party to the political centre.[113]

Implosion of the Green Party

[edit]

The Green Party of Canada experienced a period of infighting beginning in June 2021, when Jenica Atwin, one of its three MPs, crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party over a dispute regarding the 2021 Israel–Palestine crisis.[114] Although there were calls for the party leader Annamie Paul to resign, she stayed on as leader through the federal election. She spent the majority of the election campaigning in her chosen riding of Toronto Centre, but failed to win the seat.[115]

Rise of the People's Party

[edit]

The campaign was also marked by a rise in support for the People's Party of Canada. Before the election, Mainstreet Research gave the party more than 8 per cent of the vote,[116] and Abacus Data noted particularly high scores among Canadians under the age of 60.[117] Justin Trudeau and Yves-François Blanchet indirectly accused the Conservatives for the rise of the PPC, with Trudeau notably criticizing Erin O'Toole for not requiring his party's candidates to be vaccinated.[118]

Campaign slogans

[edit]
Party English French (translation)
Liberal Party of Canada "Forward. For Everyone."[119] "Avançons ensemble." ("Let's move forward together.")
Conservative Party of Canada "Secure the Future"[120] "Agir pour l'avenir." ("Act for the Future.")
New Democratic Party "Fighting for You"[121] "Oser ensemble" ("Dare Together")
Bloc Québécois
N/A
 "Québécois" ("Quebec", in its adjective form)
Green Party of Canada "Be Daring."[122] "Faites le saut." ("Take the Leap.") and "Il faut de l'audace." ("It takes boldness.")
People's Party of Canada "Common Sense Policies that put Canadians First" "Des politiques fondées sur le gros bon sens qui priorisent des Canadiens" (as in English)

Policy platforms

[edit]
Party Full platform
█ Liberal Forward. For Everyone.[123]
█ Conservative Canada's Recovery Plan[124]
█ New Democratic Ready for Better[125]
█ Bloc Québécois Québécois[126]
█ Green Platform 2021 - Be Daring[127]
█ People's [128]

Platform evaluations

[edit]

The Parliamentary Budget Officer provides a service to all parties for evaluating the financial impact of any of their proposals, but does not release details until the requesting party has done so as well.[129] After the election, the PBO revealed that 130 requests had been received from all parties, of which only 72 were made public.[130][131] It did release a report outlining various baselines that were used in its costing exercises.[132]

The Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa announced that their analysis of fiscal credibility showed the Liberal party had the best grade, as shown by the following ratings:[133]

IFSD party platform rankings, 2021 (Good = Green tickY, Pass = checkY, Fail = Red XN)
Party Overall score Realistic economic and fiscal assumptions Responsible fiscal management Transparency
█ Liberal Green tickY Green tickY Green tickY Green tickY
█ Conservative checkY Green tickY Red XN Green tickY
█ New Democratic checkY Green tickY checkY Red XN

Leaders' debates

[edit]
Main article: Canadian leaders' debates § 2021 debates

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[134][135] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates for every federal election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[134][135]

The English-language debate gained notoriety when the moderator posed a question to Blanchet that characterized Quebec's law on secularism as "discriminatory". He challenged her use of that word, and the response was seen by some as a turning point in the Bloc's campaign, which gained in the polls after the debate.[136]

2021 Canadian general election debates
Date Organizers Location Language Moderator  P  Participant  A  Absent (invited)  I  Invited  N  Not invited Source
Trudeau O'Toole Blanchet Singh Paul Bernier
September 2, 2021 TVA Nouvelles Montreal French Pierre Bruneau P P P P N N [137][138]
September 8, 2021 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau French Patrice Roy P P P P P N [139][140]
September 9, 2021 English Shachi Kurl P P P P P N [139][140]

On August 29, Ici Radio-Canada Télé hosted a special broadcast consisting of a series of solo interviews with each leader in turn, with questions posed by Patrice Roy, Céline Galipeau and Anne-Marie Dussault. This format was not attempted by any of the other broadcasters.[141]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Main articles: Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election and Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election by constituency
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95 per cent confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Polls in key provinces

[edit]
Voter intentions through the course of the campaign
  • Opinion poll tracking in Alberta during 2021 campaign
    Alberta
  • Opinion poll tracking in British Columbia during 2021 campaign
    British Columbia
  • Opinion poll tracking in Ontario during 2021 campaign
    Ontario
  • Opinion poll tracking in Quebec during 2021 campaign
    Quebec

Results

[edit]
See also: Results breakdown of the 2021 Canadian federal election and Results of the 2021 Canadian federal election by riding

Summary results

[edit]
Pie chart of popular vote and seat counts

Full results

[edit]

The Liberals maintained their status as largest party in the House of Commons. The results were very close to those of the 2019 federal election.[5]

Summary of the 2021 Canadian federal election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissol. 2021 Change
from 2019 		% seats Votes Vote
change 		% pp change % where
running
Liberal Justin Trudeau 338[e] 157 155 160[f] Increase 3 47.34% 5,556,629 Decrease 462,099 32.62% Decrease 0.50pp 32.62%
Conservative Erin O'Toole 337[g] 121 119 119 Decrease 2 35.21% 5,747,410 Decrease 491,817 33.74% Decrease 0.60pp 33.83%
Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet 78 32 32 32 Steady 9.47% 1,301,615 Decrease 85,415 7.64% Increase 0.01pp 32.11%
New Democratic Jagmeet Singh 338[h] 24 24 25 Increase 1 7.40% 3,036,348 Increase 132,626 17.82% Increase 1.84pp 17.82%
Green Annamie Paul 252[i] 3 2 2 Decrease 1 0.59% 396,988 Decrease 792,619 2.33% Decrease 4.22pp 3.07%
People's Maxime Bernier 312 – – – 840,993 Increase 546,901 4.94% Increase 3.32pp 5.31%
Free Michel Leclerc 59 — – – 47,252 — 0.28% — 1.49%
Maverick Jay D. Hill (interim) 29 — – – 35,178 — 0.21% — 2.30%
  Independent and No Affiliation 91 1 5 – Decrease 1 32,481 Decrease 41,810 0.19% Decrease 0.22pp 0.69%
Christian Heritage Rodney L. Taylor 25 – – – 8,985 Decrease 9,916 0.05% Decrease 0.05pp 0.67%
Rhinoceros Sébastien CoRhino 27 – – – 6,085 Decrease 3,453 0.04% Decrease 0.01pp 0.41%
Libertarian Jacques Boudreau 13 – – – 4,765 Decrease 3,602 0.03% Decrease 0.02pp 0.71%
Communist Elizabeth Rowley 26 – – – 4,700 Increase 795 0.03% Increase 0.01pp 0.36%
Marxist–Leninist Anna Di Carlo 36 – – – 4,532 Increase 408 0.03% Increase 0.01pp 0.26%
Pour l'Indépendance du Québec (D) Michel Blondin 10 – – – 2,934 Decrease 881 0.02% Steady 0.51%
Animal Protection Liz White 10 – – – 2,546 Decrease 1,862 0.01% Decrease 0.01pp 0.48%
Marijuana Blair T. Longley 9 – – – 2,031 Increase 1,111 0.01% Steady 0.42%
Veterans Coalition (D) Randy David Joy 7 – – – 1,246 Decrease 5,054 0.01% Decrease 0.02pp 0.30%
Centrist A.Q. Rana 4 — – – 648 — 0.00% — 0.40%
National Citizens Alliance (D) Stephen J. Garvey 4 – – – 476 Decrease 34 0.00% Steady 0.22%
Patriote (D) Carl Brochu 2 — – – 244 — 0.00% — 0.21%
Canada's Fourth Front[j] (D) Partap Dua 2 – – – 105 Decrease 577 0.00% Steady 0.09%
Canadian Nationalist (D) Gus Stefanis 1 – – – 52 Decrease 229 0.00% Steady 0.14%
  Vacant 1 —
Total valid votes 17,034,243 Decrease 1,136,637 100.00% – –
Total rejected ballots 175,568 Decrease 3,697 1.02% Increase 0.04pp –
Total 2,010 338 338 338 – 100.00% 17,209,811 Decrease 1,140,334 100.00% – 100.00%
Electorate (eligible voters)/turnout 27,366,297 Decrease 6,761 62.89% Decrease 4.14pp –
Source: House of Commons,[149] validated and judicial recount results;[150] full results spreadsheet[151] (D) indicates a party deregistered before the next election

Results by province

[edit]
Distribution of seats and popular vote %, by party by province/territory (2021)
Party name BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL YT NT NU Total
  Liberal Seats: 15 2 – 4 78 35 6 8 4 6 1 1 – 160
Vote: 27.0 15.5 10.6 27.9 39.3 33.6 42.4 42.3 46.2 47.7 33.4 38.2 35.9 32.6
  Conservative Seats: 13 30 14 7 37 10 4 3 – 1 – – – 119
Vote: 33.2 55.3 59.0 39.2 34.9 18.6 33.6 29.4 31.6 32.5 26.3 14.4 16.5 33.7
  NDP Seats: 13 2 – 3 5 1 – – – – – – 1 25
Vote: 29.2 19.1 21.1 23.0 17.8 9.8 11.9 22.1 9.2 17.4 22.4 32.3 47.7 17.8
  Bloc Québécois Seats: 32 32
Vote: 32.1 7.6
  People's Seats: – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Vote: 4.9 7.4 6.6 7.6 5.5 2.7 6.1 4.0 3.2 2.4 – – – 4.9
  Green Seats: 1 – – – 1 – – – – – – – – 2
Vote: 5.3 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.2 1.5 5.2 1.9 9.6 - 4.4 2.3 - 2.3
  Independents and minor parties Seats: – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
Vote: 0.4 1.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 - 13.6 12.7 – 0.2
Seats: 42 34 14 14 121 78 10 11 4 7 1 1 1 338

Special ballots in the election

[edit]
Special ballot voting kits issued and returned[152]
Reason Issued Returned
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from inside their riding 1,014,708 899,819
Voting by mail or at an Elections Canada office from outside their riding 199,629 151,117
Living outside of Canada 55,700 27,253
Total 1,270,037 1,078,189

Judicial recounts

[edit]

In a federal election, a judicial recount is automatically ordered in a riding where the margin of victory is less than 0.1 per cent (one one-thousandth) of the votes cast. In cases where there is a larger but still narrow margin of victory, an elector can request a judicial recount. While no validated results triggered an automatic recount in this election, judicial recounts were requested in four ridings: Brome—Missisquoi, Davenport, Châteauguay—Lacolle and Trois-Rivières. Only Châteauguay—Lacolle saw its initial result overturned: the recount had Liberal incumbent MP Brenda Shanahan proclaimed the ultimate winner over Bloc candidate Patrick O'Hara, by a margin of only 12 votes.[153] It was the first time validated results were reversed by a judicial recount since the 2008 election.[154] Recounts in Brome—Missiquoi and Davenport began on October 12; however, in both ridings the early count appeared to confirm the initial validated results, leading both challengers to concede defeat and the recount to be terminated.[155][156]

Riding Initial validated results, first and second place Recount date Judicially certified results, first and second place
Candidate Votes % Candidate Votes %
Châteauguay—Lacolle, Quebec[157]   Patrick O'Hara, BQ 18,028 36.98% October 4, 2021   Brenda Shanahan, Liberal 18,029 37.03%
  Brenda Shanahan, Liberal 17,742 36.39%   Patrick O'Hara, BQ 18,017 37.01%
Trois-Rivières, Quebec[158][159]   René Villemure, BQ 17,119 29.51% October 5, 2021   René Villemure, BQ 17,136 29.49%
  Yves Lévesque, Conservative 17,027 29.35%   Yves Lévesque, Conservative 17,053 29.35%
Brome—Missisquoi, Quebec[160]   Pascale St-Onge, Liberal 21,488 34.96% October 12, 2021 (terminated)[161] Judicial recount terminated at the request of the candidate who had requested it
  Marilou Alarie, BQ 21,291 34.64%
Davenport, Ontario[162]   Julie Dzerowicz, Liberal 19,930 42.13% October 12, 2021 (terminated)[163]
  Alejandra Bravo, NDP 19,854 41.97%

Initially, the preliminary results of Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley in the province of Manitoba were so close that the Liberal former MP Doug Eyolfson had just 24 votes fewer than the Conservative incumbent MP Marty Morantz, a margin small enough to trigger an automatic recount.[164] On September 28, Eyolfson conceded after the validated results had widened the gap to 460 votes, which is approximately 1 per cent of the total vote.[165]

10 closest ridings

[edit]

Incumbents are denoted in bold and followed by (I).

Riding Winner Runner-up Vote difference
Châteauguay—Lacolle   Brenda Shanahan (I)   Patrick O'Hara 12
Davenport   Julie Dzerowicz (I)   Alejandra Bravo 76
Trois-Rivières   René Villemure   Yves Levesque 83
Brome—Missisquoi   Pascale St-Onge   Marilou Alarie 197
Sault Ste. Marie   Terry Sheehan (I)   Sonny Spina 247
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame   Clifford Small   Scott Simms (I) 281
Vancouver Granville   Taleeb Noormohamed   Anjali Appadurai 431
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley   Marty Morantz (I)   Doug Eyolfson 460
Fredericton   Jenica Atwin (I)   Andrea Johnson 502
Kitchener—Conestoga   Tim Louis (I)   Carlene Hawley 577

Maps

[edit]
Elections Canada 2021 results[1]
Map showing results by riding
Cartogram of the 2021 Canadian federal election results using equal-area ridings

Analysis and aftermath

[edit]

The remarkable similarity of the results and those of the 2019 federal election may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre results have left their mark on the electorate. A survey by Maru Public Opinion revealed that 77 per cent of respondents believe that Canada is more divided than ever, and 52 per cent feel that Canada's democratic system is broken.[166]

Political parties

[edit]

Several factors were quickly identified as having had a significant influence on the results. Some political scientists and commentators debated whether the PPC's better performance, compared to the 2019 federal election, contributed to the Conservatives under Erin O'Toole losing to the Liberals. Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi and University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman posited that the PPC may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings.[167][168][169] The votes obtained by PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc; however, it has been described as not a simple generalization, as a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.[170]

Important vote swings to the Liberals were also noted in ridings with significant Chinese-Canadian populations, with especially large ones arising in Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill and Richmond Centre.[171] This was predicted early on in the campaign in polling by Mainstreet Research, which observed that they "were not supporting Conservative candidates in the same way they did in the last couple of elections."[171] While some commentators believed that this may have arisen because of the manner the Tories were handling China-Canada issues,[171] others wondered whether the abnormally large changes were due to disinformation activity occurring in the local Chinese-language media.[172][173]

Even before the mail-in ballots were counted, the Liberals were projected as leading in 158 seats despite seeing their vote share fall from 33.1 per cent to 32.3 per cent. Gerald Butts, former principal secretary to Trudeau, praised the result as a "smart campaign" that prioritized "vote efficiency"; this view was criticized as detracting from other essential aspects of an election campaign.[174] Other commentators questioned whether the Liberal vote has reached its effective limit, commenting that minority governments have occurred with greater frequency since the Unite the Right movement and the formation of the Conservative Party in 2003.[175]

Had he not been ousted by his caucus, O'Toole would have faced a mandatory leadership review at the next Conservative national conference in 2023. A member of the national council quickly called for a petition to accelerate the process.[176] Other Conservatives urged continued support of O'Toole, and called for the party to unify around him.[177] Most party and caucus members seemed to have appeared to favour a post-mortem review along the lines conducted by the party after the 2004 federal election.[178]

The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3 per cent, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May has called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it.[179] Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27.[180]

Calls for electoral reform

[edit]

Commentators at The Conversation noted that for a second election in a row the Liberals won the greatest number of seats but lost the popular vote to the Conservatives under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system.[181] During the campaign, Trudeau said he remains open to getting rid of Canada's FPTP if re-elected, provided there is consensus on the issue; he also expressed his preference for ranked voting over proportional representation. Trudeau had promised during the 2015 campaign that the 2015 federal election would be the last federal election to use FPTP.[182][181]

Candidates elected

[edit]

Forty-nine MPs were elected for the first time, and two more (Randy Boissonnault and John Aldag) returned after having been defeated in 2019. The number of female MPs—103, up from 100 in 2019—is a record high for the House, and 22 of the first-time MPs are women.[183]

Kevin Vuong, whose candidacy was disavowed by the Liberals after nominations had closed, still won the riding of Spadina—Fort York. Vuong announced that he would take his seat as an independent upon being sworn in.[184] Adam Vaughan, the previous incumbent, called on Vuong to resign as his victory was "compromised".[185] In a radio interview in November, Vuong apologized to his supporters, and he later said, "Of the many, many people who have reached out since my interview, they've encouraged me to move forward. And that's what I'm going to be doing."[186]

George Chahal, elected in Calgary Skyview, was the subject of several complaints concerning the removal of campaign flyers of another candidate, substituting them with his own. In January 2022, he accepted and paid a $500 administrative monetary penalty assessed by the Commissioner of Canada Elections in the matter,[187] saying, "It's just a late night on an election campaign. Call it a dumb mistake or brain fog—it really doesn't matter why I did what I did. I think what matters is I did it. And I acknowledged it fully, openly, publicly."[188]

Chinese government interference

[edit]
See also: Chinese government interference in the 2019 and 2021 Canadian federal elections

A year following the election, Conservative Party politicians including former leader Erin O'Toole blamed Chinese government interference as a factor behind the loss for the party. In a 2022 interview on the UnCommons podcast with Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, O'Toole opined that media outfits linked to the Chinese Communist Party could have cost the Conservatives up to "eight or nine seats.".[189]

O'Toole's beliefs were supported by Conservative MP and foreign affairs critic Michael Chong who stated that while the party was initially hesitant to blame China for influencing the vote due to inconclusive evidence at the time, he now believed "The communist leadership in Beijing did interfere in the last federal election by spreading disinformation through proxies on Chinese-language social media platforms that contributed to the defeat of a number of Conservative MPs" citing a report by McGill University. Similar views were shared by O'Toole's director of parliamentary affairs Mitch Heimpel who claimed Canadian national security officers had contacted the Conservatives around election day to express concerns about potential foreign interference. Heimpel also cited the example of former Conservative MP Kenny Chiu who had been targeted by a misinformation campaign by the Chinese social media platform WeChat. Research into alleged electoral interference by McGill University indicated that there was no specific riding specific data to draw a full conclusion on the impact of potential interference and noted "Canadian-Chinese issues were not central to the campaign nor were they top of mind for voters" but concurred researchers had found Chinese state media had worked "with an apparent aim to convince Canadians of Chinese origin to vote against the Conservative Party."[190][191]

In February 2023, The Globe and Mail published a series of articles, reporting that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), in several classified documents, advised that China had employed disinformation campaigns and undisclosed donations to support preferred candidates during the campaign, all with the aim of ensuring that the Liberals would win again, but only with a minority.[192][193] Other illegal tactics under the Canada Elections Act were also revealed, such as directing international students to work for preferred candidates (ostensibly as volunteers, but being paid by sympathetic business owners),[192] and arranging for sympathetic donors to contribute to such campaigns, with the difference between their payments and the resulting tax credits being returned to them.[192][193] The Procedure and House Affairs Committee of the House of Commons met to discuss these reports,[193] and voted to expand their current inquiry into the 2019 election to include the 2021 election as well.[194] In April 2024, an inquiry into foreign interference heard that CSIS concluded in February 2023 that the Chinese government interfered in the 2019 and 2021 elections.[195]

See also

[edit]

Notes and references

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He was not seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  2. ^ Annamie Paul lost the by-election in Toronto Centre the previous year and the 2019 general election.
  3. ^ Maxime Bernier was unseated in 2019.
  4. ^ a b c Previously elected under the Liberal banner
  5. ^ Includes Kitchener Centre candidate Raj Saini who withdrew, and Spadina—Fort York candidate Kevin Vuong who was removed as a candidate, both after the deadline for candidate registration, and thus remained on the ballot as Liberals.[142][143]
  6. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal and is still counted as a Liberal until sworn in. Vuong has announced that he will sit as an independent when parliament convenes.[144]
  7. ^ Includes Beaches—East York candidate Lisa Robinson, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Conservative.[145] The Conservatives did not run a candidate in Dartmouth—Cole Harbour after their nominee withdrew shortly before the registration deadline.[146]
  8. ^ Includes Toronto—St. Paul's candidate Sidney Coles and Cumberland—Colchester candidate Daniel Osborne, who both withdrew after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as New Democrats.[147]
  9. ^ Includes Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke candidate Michael Lariviere, who was removed as a candidate after the deadline for candidate registration and thus remained on the ballot as a Green.[148]
  10. ^ Canada's Fourth Front changed its name to Direct Democracy Party of Canada shortly after the election.

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