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2021 Senedd election

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2021 Senedd election
← 2016 6 May 2021 Next →
All 60 seats to the Senedd
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout46.6% Increase1.2%
  First party Second party
 
Blank
Blank
Leader Mark Drakeford Andrew RT Davies
Party Labour Conservative
Leader since 6 December 2018 24 January 2021
Leader's seat Cardiff West South Wales Central
Last election 29 seats 11 seats
Seats won 30 16
Seat change Increase1 Increase5
Constituency vote 443,047 289,802
% and swing 39.9% Increase5.2pp 26.1% Increase5.0pp
Regional vote 401,770 278,560
% and swing 36.2% Increase4.7pp 25.1% Increase6.3pp
  Third party Fourth party
 
Blank
Blank
Leader Adam Price Jane Dodds
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader since 28 September 2018 3 November 2017
Leader's seat Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Mid and West Wales
Last election 12 seats 1 seat
Seats won 13 1
Seat change Increase1 Steady
Constituency vote 225,376 54,202
% and swing 20.3% Decrease0.2pp 4.9% Decrease2.8pp
Regional vote 230,161 48,217
% and swing 20.7% Decrease0.1pp 4.3% Decrease2.2pp
First Minister before election

Mark Drakeford
Labour

First Minister after election

Mark Drakeford
Labour

This article is part of a series within the
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Represented in the Senedd

The 2021 Senedd election took place on Thursday 6 May 2021[1] to elect 60 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It was the sixth devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. The election was held alongside the Scottish Parliament election, English local elections, London Assembly and mayoral election and the Hartlepool by-election.

It was the first election in which 16- and 17-year-olds and legally resident foreign nationals were allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.[2] It was also the first election for the legislature under its new name – 'Senedd Cymru' or 'the Welsh Parliament' – and thus this election may be called the 2021 Welsh Parliament election,[3][4] or 2021 Senedd Cymru election,[5][6] in preference over the shorter name.

Five parties had Members of the Senedd (MSs, formerly Assembly Members – AMs) elected at the previous election: Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Seven political parties were represented in the Senedd prior to the election. These are the five aforementioned parties and two parties that gained MSs who were elected for – and moved from – other political parties. The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party gained two MSs who were elected for UKIP in 2016, and Propel (previously the Welsh Nation Party) gained an MS elected for Plaid Cymru in 2016.

The governing Labour Party's share of the constituency vote increased by over 5%, and the regional vote by over 4%, with thirty Labour MSs elected accounting for exactly half of the sixty seats, one more than in 2016 but one short of an overall majority and remaining as the largest party. The Conservatives became the Senedd's second-largest party and the official opposition to the Welsh Government with sixteen MSs elected, five more than their 2016 result. This result is the best that the Conservatives managed to achieve since the Senedd was established. Plaid Cymru slipped down to third place with thirteen MSs elected, one more than in 2016. Coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats lost their single constituency seat from 2016, but gained a regional list seat, keeping their total of one seat, the same as in 2016. UKIP received no seats, down from their seven in the 2016 election. This included seats later transferred to Abolish the Welsh Assembly, who also received no seats.

Voter turnout was 46.6%, a record for a Senedd election.[7][8][9]

Percentage vote share of the 2021 Senedd election by constituency.[10]

Electoral system

[edit]
Main articles: Mixed-Member Proportional and Additional Member System

In elections for the Senedd, using the additional member system, each voter has two votes. The first vote is for a member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. In this election the system achieved a broadly proportional result in the North Wales and Mid and West Wales electoral regions. However, as in previous elections, the large number of constituency seats won by the Labour Party in the South Wales West, South Wales Central and South Wales East electoral regions, when set against the small proportion of available additional regional seats, means that the Labour Party is over-represented by a margin of four seats, when considered on a proportional basis.

Under the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.

This was the first election where 16- and 17-year olds could vote, following the enactment of Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act in January 2020.[2]

The registration deadline for voters in this election was 11:59 pm, 19 April 2021.[11]

Background

[edit]

The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election.[12] The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the four ex-UK Independence Party (UKIP) members, led by Mark Reckless.[13] A snap general election in the United Kingdom was held on 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote, losing all their seats in North Wales, except for Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing six parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's landslide victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the Welsh Liberal Democrats.[14]

On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales narrowly voted to leave the EU.[15] South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit cut across traditional party allegiances, as the area typically votes overwhelmingly for Labour. The band of eight local authorities covering the Valleys area from Swansea in the west to Torfaen in the east, plus the coastal city of Newport, all voted in favour of Brexit,[16] and all are represented in the House of Commons by Labour MPs, all of whom wished to remain in the EU.[17]

Plaid Cymru campaigned for a Remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.[18] Plaid Cymru later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter.[19][20] Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership.[21] A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed. The same poll found that 22% of respondents wanted no devolution in Wales, and that 25% were for abolition of the Senedd, with 48% opposed to abolition.[22][23] A follow-up YouGov poll in August 2020 concluded that support for Welsh independence had risen to 32%.[24]

On 17 May 2020, Health Minister Vaughan Gething told ITV Wales it was "possible" that the election might not be allowed to happen, because of the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic.[25] The First Minister Mark Drakeford announced on 29 June 2020 that a group with representatives from all of the main parties would look at the arrangements that might have to be in place for the election if COVID-19 restrictions are still required. It would look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward".[26] There was no consensus to agree if a delay was needed, but all parties agreed on measures to encourage vulnerable voters and others to consider applying for a postal vote and early applications, greater flexibility around the nomination of candidates, postal and proxy voting, and measures to ensure the safe operation of polling stations and count venues.[27] The Wales Electoral Coordination Board said on 5 January 2021 that counting of Senedd election votes cannot be done overnight because of COVID restrictions. The board said that the count "will require more staff and take longer to perform."[28]

The Welsh Government introduced a bill under emergency legislation, Welsh Elections (Coronavirus) Bill, in January 2021. It gives the Llywydd (presiding officer) the power to delay the election (with the recommendation of date by the First Minister and consent of two-thirds of the Senedd) by up to six months if the Coronavirus pandemic would make the elections unsafe. The bill was passed on the 10 February 2021 with powers also to introduce early voting and more flexibility with proxy voting.[29][30]

On 9 March 2021 in a joint British Governments statement ministers said that there will be safety measures in place for May's elections. They encouraged voters to take their own pens or pencils and reconfirmed their aim for elections being conducted on the 6 May 2021.[31][32] In the 3-week review on the 12 March 2021 the First Minister said that the threshold for postponing the election hasn't currently been met. Drakeford also said that leafleting (not door knocking) will be able to start from 15 March.[33]

During the pandemic, the Welsh government messaging and laws have been distinct from the UK government's actions in England; this has made the Welsh public more conscious about devolution.[34] The Welsh government only allowed businesses access to the Economic Resilience Fund devolved to them by Westminster if they officially recognised a trade union which could recruit in their workplaces.[35] The Welsh government announced a two-week lockdown to reduce the prevalence of the virus – called a "firebreak" – in line with the other devolved administrations and distinct from the UK government's lockdown in England.[36]

On 11 December 2020, Plaid Cymru announced that they would hold a referendum on Welsh independence within five years if they won a majority.[37] Some observers also believed they would have requested a Welsh independence referendum in exchange for supporting a minority government.[38] Despite being a unionist party, Labour selected three candidates who supported independence.[39]

On 3 February 2021, UKIP leader Neil Hamilton stated that the party would pledge to deliver a referendum on the devolved administrations in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.[40] He later told BBC Radio Wales: "UKIP had its founding principle in getting out of the European Union and now we've done that we can concentrate on reintegrating the United Kingdom... Our slogan in this election is 'scrap the Senedd'."[41]

On 7 March 2021, the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party announced that it would be running candidates in all constituencies in the election, and also said that it would run candidates on the regional list.[42] On 6 April, BBC News reported that Gareth Bennett would not stand for Abolish, with Bennett coming to a mutual agreement with the party to stand as an independent in Cynon Valley whilst still remaining supportive of the party, a decision which left Mark Reckless as the party's only MS.[43] The same day, it was reported that ten prospective candidates for Abolish had also "dropped out" with leader Richard Suchorzewski claiming it was due to, "Welsh Nationalist abuse and fear of reprisals."[44]

On 16 April, it was reported that of the 70,000 16 and 17-year-olds eligible to vote, less than 9,000 were currently registered in six counties, according to figures collected by the Election Reform Society (ERS). The deadline to register to vote was Monday 19 April 2021.[45] Figures later compiled by the BBC suggested around 46% of eligible people in this age group were registered to vote by the deadline.[46]

Retiring members

[edit]

The following MSs did not run for re-election:

MS Constituency/Region First elected Party Date announced
Carwyn Jones Bridgend 1999 Labour 11 May 2018[47]
David Melding South Wales Central Conservatives 28 February 2020[48]
Dafydd Elis-Thomas Dwyfor Meirionnydd Independent (elected as Plaid Cymru) 12 April 2020[49]
Angela Burns Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 2007 Conservatives 16 July 2020[50]
Bethan Sayed South Wales West Plaid Cymru 28 August 2020[51]
Kirsty Williams Brecon and Radnorshire 1999 Liberal Democrats 27 October 2020[52]
Suzy Davies South Wales West 2011 Conservatives 29 January 2021[53][54]
Ann Jones Vale of Clwyd 1999 Labour

Parties

[edit]
See also: Political parties in Wales

Contesting constituency and regional ballots

[edit]

Labour, Plaid Cymru, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK stood in all 40 constituencies and all five regional ballots.[55] Five other parties contested all five regions and at least one constituency: Abolish the Welsh Assembly (23 constituencies), UKIP (14 constituencies), Gwlad (14 constituencies), Welsh Green Party (13 constituencies) and Propel (11 constituencies). Llais Gwynedd and Socialist Party of Great Britain stood in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Cardiff Central respectively. Neither party stood in any regional races. Two parties contested some of the regions and at least one constituency: Freedom Alliance (3 regions and 13 constituencies) and No More Lockdowns (2 regions and 1 constituency).

Parties with representation in the Senedd prior to the election

[edit]
Name Leader(s) 2016 result Seats at dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Regional Constituency
Labour Mark Drakeford
MS for Cardiff West 		31.5% 34.7%
29 / 60
29 / 60
Plaid Cymru Adam Price
MS for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 		20.8% 20.5%
12 / 60
10 / 60
Conservatives Andrew RT Davies
MS for South Wales Central 		18.8% 21.1%
11 / 60
10 / 60
UKIP Wales Neil Hamilton
MS for Mid and West Wales (until 6 May 2021) 		13.0% 12.5%
7 / 60
1 / 60
Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds
MS for Mid and West Wales (after 6 May 2021) 		6.5% 7.7%
1 / 60
1 / 60
Abolish the Welsh Assembly Richard Suchorzewski
Not an MS 		4.4% –
0 / 60
1 / 60
Propel Neil McEvoy
MS for South Wales Central (until 6 May 2021) 		– –
0 / 60
1 / 60

The five remaining seats were occupied by those independent of political parties.

Other parties contesting all or some regions and all or some constituencies

[edit]
Name Leader(s) 2016 result Outgoing seats
Votes (%) Seats
Regional Constituency
Green Anthony Slaughter
Not an MS 		3.0 2.5
0 / 60
0 / 60
Gwlad Gwyn Wigley Evans
Not an MS 		– – Did not exist
0 / 60
Reform UK Wales Nathan Gill
Not an MS 		– – Did not exist
0 / 60
Freedom Alliance Carol Dobson
Not an MS 		– – Did not exist
0 / 60

Contesting regional ballot only

[edit]

Some parties opted to only contest the regional lists. Two parties – Communist Party of Great Britain and TUSC – contested all five electoral regions. The Welsh Christian Party and the Workers Party of Britain both stood in only one region.

Name Leader(s) 2016 result Outgoing seats
Votes (%) Seats
Regional Constituency
Welsh Communist Party Robert David Griffiths
Not an MS 		0.2 –
0 / 60
0 / 60
TUSC Wales Dave Nellist
Not an MS 		0.2 –
0 / 60
0 / 60
Welsh Christian Jeff Green
Not an MS 		0.1 –
0 / 60
0 / 60

Campaign

[edit]

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, campaigning took into account health issues. Restrictions were placed on the ability of campaigners to carry out door-to-door campaigning. Campaign rallies were not possible, which affected the impact of candidates who normally do well at these events.[56]

Mark Drakeford was criticised for publishing a leaflet in the English language, without a bilingual one.[57] Joel Williams, Conservative candidate for Cardiff North, got the name of his own constituency wrong on a campaign leaflet.[58] Dwyfor Meirionydd Conservative candidate, Charlie Evans, had to apologise for a tweet praising Llyn Tryweryn,[59] the lake which was created to provide water for Liverpool, immortalised with the slogan Cofiwch Dryweryn.

After the death of Prince Philip on 9 April 2021, all of the main political parties suspended campaigning as a mark of respect. Labour and Plaid Cymru restarted their campaigns three days later.[60]

Election debates

[edit]
2021 Senedd election debates
Date scheduled Organisers Moderator(s)  P  Present[a]    S  Surrogate[b]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee 
Labour Plaid Cymru Conservatives Lib Dems Abolish Green UKIP Reform UK Audience Ref.
18 April ITV Adrian Masters P
Drakeford 		P
Price 		P
Davies 		NI NI NI NI NI Virtual [61][62]
29 April BBC Bethan Rhys Roberts P
Drakeford 		P
Price 		P
Davies 		P
Dodds 		P
Suchorzewski 		Virtual [63][64]
Nick Servini P
Womack 		P
Hamilton 		S
Jenkins 		Virtual [65][66]
3 May S4C - Pawb a'i Farn Betsan Powys S
Morgan 		P
Price 		S
Dafydd Davies 		NI NI NI NI NI Virtual [67][68]
4 May Walesonline Ruth Mosalski P
Drakeford 		P
Price 		P
Davies 		NI NI NI NI NI Virtual

Constituency nominations

[edit]

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency Labour Plaid Cymru Conservatives Liberal Democrats Abolish Green[69] UKIP Reform UK Others and independents
Aberavon[70] David Rees Victoria Griffiths Liz Hill O'Shea[71] Helen Clarke Sarah Allen Tim Jenkins Dennis May Ceri Golding (Gwlad)
Scott Jones (IND)
Aberconwy[72] Dawn McGuinness[73] Aaron Wynne Janet Finch-Saunders Rhys Jones[74] Rachel Bagshaw Sharon Smith (No More Lockdowns)
Alyn and Deeside[75] Jack Sargeant Jack Morris Abigail Mainon[76] Chris Twells[77] Felix Aubel[78] Richard Purviss Lien Davies (Freedom Alliance)
Arfon[79] Iwan Wyn Jones[80] Siân Gwenllian Tony Thomas[81] Calum Davies[82] Andrew Haigh Martin Bristow
Blaenau Gwent[83] Alun Davies Peredur Owen Griffiths[84] Edward Dawson[85] Paula Yates Richard Taylor Robert Beavis Mandy Moore (IND)
Brecon and Radnorshire[86] Gethin Jones Grenville Ham James Evans William Powell Claire Mills[87] Emily Durrant John Muir Sam Holwill (Gwlad)

Karen Laurie-Parry (IND)

Bridgend[88] Sarah Murphy[89] Leanne Lewis Rachel Nugent-Finn Harvey Jones[90] Christine Roach Steven Bletsoe (IND)
Caroline Jones (IND)[91]
Geraint Jones (Gwlad)
Caerphilly[92] Hefin David Delyth Jewell[c] Steven Mayfield[93] Steve Aicheler Steve Jones[94] Tim Price
Cardiff Central[95] Jenny Rathbone Wiliam Rees Calum Davies[96] Rodney Berman[97] Munawar Mughal[42] Ceri Davies[98] Julian Bosley Clem Thomas (Gwlad)

Brian Johnson (Socialist Party of Great Britain)

Thomas Franklin (Freedom Alliance)

Cardiff North[99] Julie Morgan Fflur Elin Joel Williams Rhys Taylor Lawrence Gwynn[42] Debra Cooper[100] Haydn Rushworth Akil Kata (Propel)
Virginia Kemp (Freedom Alliance)
Cardiff South and Penarth[101] Vaughan Gething Nasir Adam[102] Leighton Rowlands[103] Alex Wilson[104] Lisa Peregrine[42] Helen Westhead[105] Paul Campbell Alan Pick Angus Hawkins (Gwlad)

Alan Golding (Freedom Alliance)

Matt Friend (Propel)

David Rolfe (IND)

Cardiff West[106] Mark Drakeford Rhys ab Owen[107] Sean Driscoll[108] Heath Marshall[109] Lee Canning[110] David Griffin[111] Nick Mullins Neil McEvoy (Propel)[c]
Captain Beany (IND)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr[112] Rob James[113] Adam Price Havard Hughes[114] Monica M French Karl Pollard
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire[115] Riaz Hassan Cefin Campbell[116] Samuel Kurtz[117] Alistair Cameron[118] Paul Dowson[119] Peter Prosser Jon Harvey (IND)
Ceredigion[120] Dylan Lewis-Rowlands Elin Jones Amanda Jenner[121] Cadan ap Tomos[122] Harry Hayfield[123] Gethin James Stephanie Evans (Freedom Alliance)
Clwyd South[124] Ken Skates Llyr Gruffydd[c] Barbara Hughes Leena Farhat Jonathon Harrington[125] Jeanette Barton Mandy Jones[c]
Clwyd West[126] Joshua Hurst[127] Elin Walker Jones Darren Millar David Wilkins[128] Euan Mcgivern Jeanie Barton Clare Eno Rhydian Hughes (Gwlad)
Cynon Valley[129] Vikki Howells Geraint Benney Mia Rees[130] Gerald Francis Martyn Ford Peter Hopkins Gareth Bennett (IND)[c][131]
Vicky Jenkins (Propel)
Delyn[132] Hannah Blythyn Paul Rowlinson Mark Isherwood[c][117] Andrew Parkhurst[77] Mary Davies[133] Aiden Down Anthony Williams (Gwlad)
Dwyfor Meirionnydd[134] Cian Ireland Mabon ap Gwynfor[135] Charlie Evans[136] Stephen Churchman Louise Hughes Glyn Daniels (Llais Gwynedd)
Michelle Murray (Freedom Alliance)
Peter Read (Propel)
Gower[137] Rebecca Evans John Davies Myles Langstone[138] Michael Sheehan Anna Pigott[123] Byron John David Erasmus (Gwlad)
Islwyn[139] Rhianon Passmore Rhys Mills[140] Gavin Chambers[141] Oliver Townsend Mike Ford[94] Neil Hamilton[c] James Wells Kevin Etheridge (IND)[142]
Llanelli[143] Lee Waters Helen Mary Jones[c][144] Stefan Ryszewski[145] Jon Burree Howard Lillyman[146] Gareth Beer Sian Caiach (Gwlad)

Shahana Najmi (IND)

Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney[147] Dawn Bowden Ian Gwynne[148] Donna Gavin[149] Jez Becker Hugh Moelwyn Hughes[94] George Pykov Colin Jones
Monmouth[150] Catrin Maby Hugh Kocan Peter Fox[151] Jo Watkins[152] Mark Reckless[c] Ian Chandler[123] Susan Boucher Laurence Williams (Gwlad)
Nick Ramsay (IND)[153][154]
Elspeth Hill (Freedom Alliance)
Montgomeryshire[155] Kait Duerden Elwyn Vaughan Russell George Alison Alexander Oliver Lewis Gwyn Evans (Gwlad)
Neath[156] Jeremy Miles Sioned Williams Mathew Williams[157] Iain Clamp Simon Rees Megan Poppy Lloyd Andrew Pryer James Henton (Propel)
Newport East[158] John Griffiths Daniel Llewellyn Gareth Rhys Hughes[159] Mike Hamilton[160] Rob Steed[94] Ben Walker David Rowlands[c] Sonya Cary (Freedom Alliance)
Newport West[161] Jayne Bryant Jonathan Clark Michael Enea[162] John Miller[163] Amelia Womack[123] Kevin Boucher Steve Marsh (Freedom Alliance)
Ogmore[164] Huw Irranca-Davies Luke Fletcher[165] Nathan Adams[166] Cameron Shippam Robin Hunter-Clarke Glenda Davies Tim Thomas (Propel)
Pontypridd[167] Mick Antoniw Heledd Fychan[168] Joel James[169] Steven Rajam[170] Mike Hughes[42] Ken Barker[171] Jamie Jenkins Wanye Owen (IND)
Preseli Pembrokeshire[172] Jackie Jones[173] Cris Tomos[174] Paul Davies Tina Roberts[175] William Dennison
Rhondda[176] Buffy Williams[177] Leanne Wood Thomas Parkhilll Jackie Charlton Ian McLean[42] Steve Bayliss Jeff Gregory (Propel)
Stephen Phillips (Freedom Alliance)
Swansea East[178] Mike Hedges Rhiannon Barrar[179] Cameron Brennan[180] Sam Bennett Cameron Edwards[181] Dan Morgan Darren Rees
Swansea West[182] Julie James Dai Lloyd[c] Samantha Chohan[183] Chloe Hutchinson James Cole[181] Chris Evans[123] Bernard Holton Michelle Valerio (Freedom Alliance)

Katon Bouzalakos (Propel)

Torfaen[184] Lynne Neagle Lyn Ackerman Gruff Parry Veronica German[185] Tom Harrison Ian Williams Ryan Williams (Gwlad)

Matthew Ross-Francome (Freedom Alliance)

Vale of Clwyd[186] Jason McLellan Glenn Swingler Gareth Davies Lisa Davies[187] Peter Dain David Thomas (IND)
Vale of Glamorgan[188] Jane Hutt Richard Grigg Matt Smith Sally Stephenson[189] Stuart Field[42] Anthony Slaughter[190] Michael Hancock Karl-James Langford (Gwlad)

Alan Coulthard (IND)

Neill Shah (Freedom Alliance)

Janet Brocklehurst (Propel)

Wrexham[191] Lesley Griffiths Carrie Harper Jeremy Kent Tim Sly Paul Ashton Sebastian Ross[192] Charles Dodman Aaron Norton (Gwlad)
Ynys Môn[193] Samantha Egelstaff Rhun ap Iorwerth Lyn Hudson[194] Chris Jones Emmett Jenner

Regional nominations

[edit]

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded.

According the National Assembly for Wales (Representation of the People) Order 1999, "party lists" may include from one to twelve candidates. They are elected "in the order that they are included on that list (starting with the highest)".

The list below only shows the first ranks. Elected candidates are highlighted with party colours.

Region Order Labour

[195]

Plaid Cymru

[196][197][198]

Conservatives

[199]

Abolish
[200][94][201] 		UKIP

[202]

Reform UK Wales

[200][201]

Liberal Democrats

[203][204]

Green

[205]

Others and independents
Mid and West Wales[206] 1 Eluned Morgan Cefin Campbell Tomos Davies Claire Mills Jonathon Riley Gethin James Jane Dodds Emily Durrant[207] Siân Mair Caiach (Gwlad)
2 Joyce Watson Helen Mary Jones Amanda Jenner Ray Wood Howard Lilyman Roger Lewis William Powell Tomos Barlow Gwyn Wigley Evans (Gwlad)
3 Helen Taylor Elwyn Vaughan Liz Lesnianski Jeremy Pugh Paul Dowson Louise Hughes Alistair Cameron Harry Hayfield Dennis Morris (Gwlad)
4 Ben Gwalchmai Cris Tomos Aled Davies Benjamin Pugh Ken Rees Peter Prosser Stephen Churchman Marc Pearton-Scale[208] Samuel Holwill (Gwlad)
North Wales[209] 1 Carolyn Thomas Llyr Gruffydd Mark Isherwood Richard Suchorzewski Dr Felix Aubel Nathan Gill Chris Twells Iolo Jones[210] Michelle Brown (IND)

Phil Roberts (Gwlad)

2 Andy Short Carrie Harper Sam Rowlands Jonathon Harrington Jeanie Barton Peter Dain David Wilkins Duncan Rees Aled Gwyn Job (Gwlad)
3 Diane Green Elin Walker Jones Barbara Hughes William Ashton Mary Davies Clare Eno Tim Sly Adam Turner Rhydian Hughes (Gwlad)
4 Ryan O’Gorman Paul Rowlinson Gareth Davies Craig Search Jeanette Bassford-Barton Charles Dodman Calum Davies Linda Rogers Aaron Norton (Gwlad)
5 Catrin Wagner Abigail Mainon Euan McGivern Sebastian Ross Emmett Jenner Andrew Parkhurst Anthony Williams (Gwlad)
South Wales Central[211] 1 Ruba Sivagnanam Rhys ab Owen Andrew RT Davies Lee Canning Paul Campbell Jamie Jenkins Rodney Berman Anthony Slaughter[212] Karl-James Langford (Gwlad)
2 Dan De'Ath Heledd Fychan Joel James Martyn Ford Benjamin Dale Peter Hopkins Rhys Taylor Helen Westhead Clem Thomas (Gwlad)
3 Maliika Kaaba Fflur Elin Calum Davies Munawar Ahmed Mughal Clive Easton Steve Bayliss Sally Stephenson David Griffin Angus Hawkins (Gwlad)
4 Owain Williams Sahar Al-Faifi Adrian Robson Lisa Peregrine Paul Williams Mike Hancock Steven Rajam Debra Cooper Rosamund Ellis-Evans (Gwlad)
South Wales East[213] 1 Helen Cunningham Delyth Jewell Laura Anne Jones Mark Reckless Neil Hamilton James Wells Jo Watkins Amelia Womack[214] Rob Griffiths (Communist Party)

Calen Jones (Gwlad)

2 Peter Jones Peredur Owen Griffiths Natasha Asghar Richard Taylor Ben Walker Kirsty Walmsley Veronica German Ian Chandler Bob Davenport (Communist Party)

Laurence Williams (Gwlad)

3 Mary Ann Brocklesby Lindsay Whittle Matthew Evans Steve Jones Tom Harrison David Rowlands Oliver Townsend Lauren James Glenn Stephen Eynon (Communist Party)

Ryan Thomas Williams (Gwlad)

4 Majid Rahman Rhys Mills Nick Evans Mike Ford Rob James Colin Jones Jez Becker Stephen Priestnall Irene Green (Communist Party)

Terry Beverton (Gwlad)

South Wales West[215] 1 Sian James Sioned Williams Tom Giffard Simon Rees Tim Jenkins Christine Roach Chloe Hutchinson Megan Poppy Lloyd[216] Geraint David Jones (Gwlad)
2 Kevin Pascoe Luke Fletcher Altaf Hussain Cameron Edwards Dan Morgan Glenda Davies Sam Bennett Chris Evans Wayne Erasmus (Gwlad)
3 Neelo Farr John Davies Samantha Chohan Robin Hunter-Clarke Stan Robinson Byron John Harvey Jones Alex Harris[217] David Smith (Gwlad)
4 Mahaboob Basha Jamie Evans Liz Hill O'Shea Sarah Allen Gillian Mason Sean Prior Helen Ceri Clarke Tom Muller[218] John Young (Gwlad)

Opinion polling

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election

The constituency vote is shown in lighter lines, while the regional vote is shown in darker lines.

Graph of the evolution of the opinion polls for the 2021 Welsh Parliament election (the right border represents the last possible day for the election to be held). Lines represent local regressions (LOESS) with a span of 0.5.

Target seats

[edit]

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority 2016 Swing
to gain
(%) 		Labour's
place
2016 		Labour's
place
2021 		Result
1 Aberconwy Conservative 1,607 3.35 3rd 3rd Conservative hold
2 Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,373 5.75 2nd 2nd Conservative hold
3 Preseli Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,930 6.8 2nd 2nd Conservative hold
4 Rhondda Plaid Cymru 3,459 7.35 2nd 1st Labour gain
5 Monmouth Conservative 5,147 8.2 2nd 2nd Conservative hold

Plaid Cymru targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority 2016 Swing
to gain
(%) 		Plaid Cymru's
place
2016 		Plaid Cymru's
place
2021 		Result
1 Llanelli Labour 382 0.65 2nd 2nd Labour hold
2 Blaenau Gwent Labour 650 1.55 2nd 2nd Labour hold
3 Aberconwy Conservative 754 1.7 2nd 2nd Conservative hold
4 Cardiff West Labour 1,176 1.85 2nd 3rd Labour hold
5 Caerphilly Labour 1,575 2.9 2nd 2nd Labour hold
6 Neath Labour 2,923 5.75 2nd 2nd Labour hold

Conservative targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority 2016 Swing
to gain
(%) 		Conservatives'
place
2016 		Conservatives'
place
2021 		Result
1 Vale of Glamorgan Labour 777 1.05 2nd 2nd Labour hold
2 Vale of Clwyd Labour 768 1.55 2nd 1st Conservative gain
3 Gower Labour 1,829 3.05 2nd 2nd Labour hold
4 Wrexham Labour 1,325 3.25 2nd 2nd Labour hold
5 Cardiff North Labour 3,667 4.9 2nd 2nd Labour hold
6 Clwyd South Labour 3,016 6.8 2nd 2nd Labour hold
7 Delyn Labour 3,582 7.7 2nd 2nd Labour hold

Liberal Democrat targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority 2016 Swing
to gain
(%) 		Lib Dems'
place
2016 		Lib Dems'
place
2021 		Result
1 Cardiff Central Labour 817 1.55 2nd 2nd Labour hold
2 Ceredigion Plaid Cymru 2,408 4.1 2nd 4th Plaid Cymru hold
3 Montgomeryshire Conservative 3,339 7.05 2nd 3rd Conservative hold

Results

[edit]
Main article: Results of the 2021 Senedd election

Overall

[edit]
PartyConstituencyRegionalTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Labour443,04739.8527401,77036.17330+1
Conservative289,80226.078278,56025.08816+5
Plaid Cymru225,37620.275230,16120.72813+1
Liberal Democrats54,2024.88048,2174.34110
Abolish the Welsh Assembly18,1491.63041,3993.73000
Green17,8171.60048,7144.39000
Reform UK17,4051.57011,7301.0600New
UKIP8,5860.77017,3411.5600–7
Propel8,8640.8009,8250.8800New
Gwlad2,8290.2506,7760.6100New
Freedom Alliance3,1480.2803,6380.3300New
Communist Party of Britain2,8370.26000
No More Lockdowns2230.0202,7940.2500New
TUSC1,6470.15000
Christian1,3660.12000
Workers Party of Britain4110.0400New
Llais Gwynedd1,1360.10000
Socialist Party of Great Britain820.01000
Independents21,0641.8903,7090.33000
Total1,111,730100.00401,110,895100.0020600
Valid votes1,111,73099.431,110,89599.33
Invalid/blank votes6,3540.577,4930.67
Total votes1,118,084100.001,118,388100.00
Registered voters/turnout2,389,87946.782,388,86046.82
Source: Senedd Cymru, South Wales West, Swansea West

Constituency and regional summary

[edit]

Mid and West Wales

[edit]
2021 Senedd election: Mid and West Wales regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Plaid Cymru Cefin Campbell 1 Steady 65,450 27.5 Increase 1.2
Labour Eluned Morgan
Joyce Watson 		2 Steady 61,733 25.9 Increase 6.5
Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds 1 Increase 1 16,181 6.8 Decrease 4.1
2021 Senedd election: Mid and West Wales constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Brecon and Radnorshire James Evans Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Adam Price Plaid Cymru hold
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Samuel Kurtz Conservative hold
Ceredigion Elin Jones Plaid Cymru hold
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Mabon ap Gwynfor Plaid Cymru hold
Llanelli Lee Waters Labour hold
Montgomeryshire Russell George Conservative hold
Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Davies Conservative hold

North Wales

[edit]
2021 Senedd election: North Wales regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Labour Carolyn Thomas 1 Increase 1 73,120 32.3 Increase 4.2
Conservative Mark Isherwood
Sam Rowlands 		2 Increase 1 67,544 29.9 Increase 7.7
Plaid Cymru Llyr Gruffydd 1 Steady 1 53,950 23.9 Increase 0.6
2021 Senedd election: North Wales constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders Conservative hold
Alyn and Deeside Jack Sargeant Labour hold
Arfon Siân Gwenllian Plaid Cymru hold
Clwyd South Ken Skates Labour hold
Clwyd West Darren Millar Conservative hold
Delyn Hannah Blythyn Labour hold
Vale of Clwyd Gareth Davies Conservative gain from Labour
Wrexham Lesley Griffiths Labour hold
Ynys Môn Rhun ap Iorwerth Plaid Cymru hold

South Wales Central

[edit]
2021 Senedd election: South Wales Central regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Conservative Andrew RT Davies
Joel James 		2 Steady 56,662 22.1 Increase 3.8
Plaid Cymru Rhys ab Owen
Heledd Fychan 		2 Increase 2 46,478 18.2 Decrease 2.7
2021 Senedd election: South Wales Central constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Cardiff Central Jenny Rathbone Labour hold
Cardiff North Julie Morgan Labour hold
Cardiff South and Penarth Vaughan Gething Labour hold
Cardiff West Mark Drakeford Labour hold
Cynon Valley Vikki Howells Labour hold
Pontypridd Mick Antoniw Labour hold
Rhondda Buffy Williams Labour gain from Plaid Cymru
Vale of Glamorgan Jane Hutt Labour hold

South Wales East

[edit]
2021 Senedd election: South Wales East regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Conservative Laura Anne Jones
Natasha Asghar 		2 Increase 1 52,323 25.2 Increase 8.0
Plaid Cymru Peredur Owen Griffiths
Delyth Jewell 		2 Increase 1 30,530 14.7 Decrease 0.6
2021 Senedd election: South Wales East constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Blaenau Gwent Alun Davies Labour hold
Caerphilly Hefin David Labour hold
Islwyn Rhianon Passmore Labour hold
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Dawn Bowden Labour hold
Monmouth Peter Fox Conservative hold
Newport East John Griffiths Labour hold
Newport West Jayne Bryant Labour hold
Torfaen Lynne Neagle Labour hold

South Wales West

[edit]
2021 Senedd election: South Wales West regional list
Party Elected candidates Seats +/− Votes % +/−%
Conservative Tom Giffard
Altaf Hussain 		2 Increase 1 38,244 20.9 Increase 5.9
Plaid Cymru Sioned Williams
Luke Fletcher 		2 Steady 33,753 18.5 Increase 1.3
2021 Senedd election: South Wales West constituencies
Constituency Elected member Result
Aberavon David Rees Labour hold
Bridgend Sarah Murphy Labour hold
Gower Rebecca Evans Labour hold
Neath Jeremy Miles Labour hold
Ogmore Huw Irranca-Davies Labour hold
Swansea East Mike Hedges Labour hold
Swansea West Julie James Labour hold

Turnout

[edit]

This election saw the highest ever turnout for a Senedd election, with 46.6% of eligible Welsh voters casting their ballot.[7] The previous high was 46.3% in 1999.[7] There were, however, also noticeable differences in turnout in certain constituencies, with 52% of registered voters voting in Dwyfor Meirionnydd and just 35% doing so in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney.[219]

Dr Jac Larner, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University and an investigator for the Welsh election survey, said that the two largest factors in determining voter turnout between constituencies were their socio-economic make-up and the competitiveness of the seat. "Basically, people with higher levels of formal education, people who own houses, people with more wealth essentially, are more likely to turn up to vote," he told BBC News. "Straight away, as you compare Cardiff North to Merthyr Tydfil, you see big differences there. However, we also know there's a pretty strong relationship between how competitive a constituency is and turnout. That's not just in Wales, that's a general rule almost everywhere in the world - and Merthyr Tydfil, as we've seen in this election, is not competitive in any sense."[7]

Writing in Tribune magazine, Labour MS Mick Antoniw said that Welsh Labour's victory was "linked to the successful way in which Mark Drakeford and his government have handled the Covid pandemic and the way he has stood up to the more bizarre and reckless decisions of Boris Johnson, always putting the safety of the Welsh people and Welsh interests first."[220]

Donations

[edit]
Party Donations[221][222]
Conservative £549,132
Labour £500,566
Plaid Cymru £302,201
Liberal Democrats £184,434
Reform UK £79,631
Green £58,554
UKIP £54,276
Abolish £24,495
Propel £20,382
Communist £9,073
Freedom Alliance £8,426
Gwlad £5,298

See also

[edit]

Other elections in the UK which were held on the same day:

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  2. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Incumbent for the list seat

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    I've been selected as the lead candidate for @TheGreenParty for Mid & West Wales. I'm proud of all I've achieved as an elected Cllr + really excited 2 stand in this yrs elections + hopefully make history as 1 of the 1st elected Greens 2 the Senedd"     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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    Newyddion gwych i'w rannu y prynhawn yma. Ein Iolo Jones ni yw'r Prif Ymgeisydd ar gyfer Etholiadau Senedd 2021 ar gyfer Gogledd Cymru! #Senedd21"     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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    Megan Poppy Lloyd (Neath)
    Chris Evans (Gower)
    Cllr. Alex Harris (Bridgend)
    Tom Muller (Ogmore)"     (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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